Download avoid dangerous climate change

UK Climate Change Targets,
Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based
on research
by
Kevin
Anderson
Kevin AndersonResearch
& Alice director
Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
Tyndall
Centre’s energy programme
University of Manchester
25th July 2008
My position …
• Ambivalent about flying, driving, nuclear power etc.
• Concerned about climate change
… and the science is very clear here - we need
an urgent & radical reduction in our carbon
dioxide emissions if we are to “avoid dangerous
climate change”
Talk outline
The Climate Change Context
 What is dangerous climate change?
 Reframing the debate
… from long term targets to emission pathways
 “It’s energy demand stupid”
The Critical role of Aviation (& shipping …)
 Aviation growth within a low carbon pathway?
 Responding to the challenge
… the EU ETS – too little too late?
The Climate Change Context
What is dangerous climate change?

UK & EU define this as 2C

Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere
- measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv)

Currently 380ppmv (~430 CO2e) & increasing 2-3ppmv p.a.
- 280ppmv before industrial revolution

Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2 (~500 CO2e)
- i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C
50% chance of exceeding 3C
What are the ‘correct’
emission targets for 2C ?

UK & EU have long term reduction targets
- e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050

But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years

Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays &
will be added to by tomorrows

So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading
Put bluntly …
the final % reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2C)
What is important are the
cumulative emissions of carbon
How does this scientifically-credible way of
thinking, alter the challenge we face?
A bank-account analogy
We know:
.. how much money we have in the bank
between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)
For a 30% chance of
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
the UK’s budget is
~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon
between 2000-2050
From this two questions arise
1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today?
2. What emissions are we locked into in the
immediate future?
Answer 1
… emissions between 2000-2006 were
~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon
… i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted
emissions for 50 years in around 6 years!
Answer 2
Looking at this graphically …
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
Plot data from 2000 to 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
Dip
September
11th
Plot due
datatofrom
2000 to 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
What about the next 6 years …
with more aviation & shipping
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
… emissions are likely to rise
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
But we
only have
4.8
billion
tonnes
Carbon
60
40
in the
bank
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
… locking
the2012
UK into dramatic
s curve from
annual carbon reductions from
around 2012-2032
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
trajectoriesto
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
~ 9% p.a.
reduction
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
What
does
this
emission policies ?
pathway
say
about
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
trajectoriesto
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
140
120
100
80
2006
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
UK’sCarbon
fair contribution
trajectoriesto
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
140
demand
120
100
80
2006
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
60
supply
&
demand
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
The Critical Role of Aviation Emissions
… how does aviation fit into this pathway?
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
2.4
2.2
Index of activity
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
2000
2002
2004
2006
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
2.4
CAA Terminal passengers
2.2
Index of activity
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
2000
2002
2004
2006
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
2.4
2.2
Continuation
of old trends
CAA Terminal passengers
CO2 emissions from aviation
Index of activity
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
September
11th events
impact growth
1.2
1.0
0.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
2000
2002
2004
2006
UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005
2.4
2.2
CO2 emissions from aviation
Aviation
CO2 is ~7% of UK emissions
over ½ that from cars
and growing much faster
2.0
Index of activity
2006
~11 MtC
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Year
2000
2002
2004
2006
Looking at this growth graphically …
Carbon
Aviation within
UK’strajectories
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
2006
11 MtC
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Carbon
Aviation within
UK’strajectories
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
• if emissions grow at 5% until 2012
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
(30% lower than historical mean)
140
• reducing to 3% from 2012-2050
(60% lower than historical mean)
120
100
80
60
40
2006
11 MtC
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Carbon
Aviation within
UK’strajectories
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
2012
15MtC
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Carbon
trajectories
Aviation within
UK’s
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
2030
60
25MtC
40
2012
17MtC
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Carbon
trajectories
Aviation within
UK’s
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
80
2030
60
25MtC
40
over 60% of UK emissions
2012
15MtC
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Carbon
Aviation within
UK’strajectories
fair contribution to
“avoiding dangerous climate change”
200
s curve from 2012
Alternatively,
if 7%
continues until 2030…
180
Carbon emissions (MtC)
160
140
120
100
2030
56MtC
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
… and this doesn't include ‘uplift factors’
Interim conclusions
Omitting aviation negates the value
of emission targets
Many problems for aviation:
- Long lifetime of aircraft (2nd hand market)
- Kerosene lock-in for 30-60 years (bio-kerosene?)
- No rapidly penetrating step change technology
- Airport expansion stimulates unsustainable growth
- Additional climate warming effects
… and then there’s shipping
Responding to the Challenge:
EU ETS – too little too late?
Principal mechanism proposed for Aviation
meeting its climate change challenge is the
price signal arising from EU ETS
Tyndall examined the price signal for a suite of
Aviation-ETS scenarios
(“Aviation in a Low Carbon EU” - www.tyndall.ac.uk)
… used a set of ‘what if’ assumptions:
 range of carbon prices
€50, €100 & €300 per tonne of CO2
 applied over different time frames
2012-2016; 2017-2030; 2031-2050
 a range of baselines
1990, 2000 & 2005
Assume all costs are passed onto passengers …
Carbon supplement per passenger
at start of ETS
Carbon
price
€50-€100
London –
London Barcelona Washington
€2-€15
€10-€60
London Australia
€40-€120
Carbon supplement per passenger
by 2017
Carbon
price
London –
Barcelona
London Washington
€300
€15-€40
€70-€155 €140-€310
London Australia
Aviation conclusions
To conclude
Today’s aviation emissions are significant
Current aviation growth cannot be reconciled with the 2°C commitment
… little/no aviation growth is viable in a 450ppmv carbon budget
Moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation within EU ETS
Aviation is very likely to remain a ‘privileged’ sector
An order of magnitude increase in carbon price is necessary
An early baseline is essential
Indirect issues must be considered
Additional & substantial flanking instruments must be introduced
… and finally
… finally, P.40 of report states
“We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future
resides substantially in the current framing of the EU ETS and
the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may
engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important
medium- and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon
intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to
engage with the sector’s short-term emissions growth. The
urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a
low carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical
and immediate programme of demand management.”
… could high oil prices drive this change ?
UK Climate Change Targets:
End
Aviation emissions and the EU ETS
Based
on research
by
Kevin
Anderson
Kevin AndersonResearch
& Alice director
Bows
Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering
Tyndall
Centre’s energy programme
University of Manchester
25th July 2008