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UK Climate Change Targets, Aviation emissions and the EU ETS Based on research by Kevin Anderson Kevin AndersonResearch & Alice director Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester 25th July 2008 My position … • Ambivalent about flying, driving, nuclear power etc. • Concerned about climate change … and the science is very clear here - we need an urgent & radical reduction in our carbon dioxide emissions if we are to “avoid dangerous climate change” Talk outline The Climate Change Context What is dangerous climate change? Reframing the debate … from long term targets to emission pathways “It’s energy demand stupid” The Critical role of Aviation (& shipping …) Aviation growth within a low carbon pathway? Responding to the challenge … the EU ETS – too little too late? The Climate Change Context What is dangerous climate change? UK & EU define this as 2C Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere - measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv) Currently 380ppmv (~430 CO2e) & increasing 2-3ppmv p.a. - 280ppmv before industrial revolution Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2 (~500 CO2e) - i.e. 70% chance of exceeding 2C 50% chance of exceeding 3C What are the ‘correct’ emission targets for 2C ? UK & EU have long term reduction targets - e.g. UK’s 60% reduction in CO2 by 2050 But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx. 100years Hence, today’s emissions add to yesterdays & will be added to by tomorrows So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading Put bluntly … the final % reduction in carbon has little relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change (e.g. 2C) What is important are the cumulative emissions of carbon How does this scientifically-credible way of thinking, alter the challenge we face? A bank-account analogy We know: .. how much money we have in the bank between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget) For a 30% chance of “avoiding dangerous climate change” the UK’s budget is ~ 4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between 2000-2050 From this two questions arise 1. What are the emissions between 2000 & today? 2. What emissions are we locked into in the immediate future? Answer 1 … emissions between 2000-2006 were ~ 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon … i.e. we’ve used ¼ of our permitted emissions for 50 years in around 6 years! Answer 2 Looking at this graphically … trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 Plot data from 2000 to 2006 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 Dip September 11th Plot due datatofrom 2000 to 2006 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 What about the next 6 years … with more aviation & shipping 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 … emissions are likely to rise 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 But we only have 4.8 billion tonnes Carbon 60 40 in the bank 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 … locking the2012 UK into dramatic s curve from annual carbon reductions from around 2012-2032 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 trajectoriesto UK’sCarbon fair contribution “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 ~ 9% p.a. reduction 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 What does this emission policies ? pathway say about UK’sCarbon fair contribution trajectoriesto “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 140 120 100 80 2006 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 UK’sCarbon fair contribution trajectoriesto “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 140 demand 120 100 80 2006 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 60 supply & demand 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 The Critical Role of Aviation Emissions … how does aviation fit into this pathway? UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 2.4 2.2 Index of activity 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 2.4 CAA Terminal passengers 2.2 Index of activity 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 2.4 2.2 Continuation of old trends CAA Terminal passengers CO2 emissions from aviation Index of activity 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 September 11th events impact growth 1.2 1.0 0.8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 UK aviation trends 1990 – 2005 2.4 2.2 CO2 emissions from aviation Aviation CO2 is ~7% of UK emissions over ½ that from cars and growing much faster 2.0 Index of activity 2006 ~11 MtC 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Year 2000 2002 2004 2006 Looking at this growth graphically … Carbon Aviation within UK’strajectories fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2006 11 MtC 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Carbon Aviation within UK’strajectories fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 • if emissions grow at 5% until 2012 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 (30% lower than historical mean) 140 • reducing to 3% from 2012-2050 (60% lower than historical mean) 120 100 80 60 40 2006 11 MtC 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Carbon Aviation within UK’strajectories fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2012 15MtC 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Carbon trajectories Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 2030 60 25MtC 40 2012 17MtC 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Carbon trajectories Aviation within UK’s fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 80 2030 60 25MtC 40 over 60% of UK emissions 2012 15MtC 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 Carbon Aviation within UK’strajectories fair contribution to “avoiding dangerous climate change” 200 s curve from 2012 Alternatively, if 7% continues until 2030… 180 Carbon emissions (MtC) 160 140 120 100 2030 56MtC 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 … and this doesn't include ‘uplift factors’ Interim conclusions Omitting aviation negates the value of emission targets Many problems for aviation: - Long lifetime of aircraft (2nd hand market) - Kerosene lock-in for 30-60 years (bio-kerosene?) - No rapidly penetrating step change technology - Airport expansion stimulates unsustainable growth - Additional climate warming effects … and then there’s shipping Responding to the Challenge: EU ETS – too little too late? Principal mechanism proposed for Aviation meeting its climate change challenge is the price signal arising from EU ETS Tyndall examined the price signal for a suite of Aviation-ETS scenarios (“Aviation in a Low Carbon EU” - www.tyndall.ac.uk) … used a set of ‘what if’ assumptions: range of carbon prices €50, €100 & €300 per tonne of CO2 applied over different time frames 2012-2016; 2017-2030; 2031-2050 a range of baselines 1990, 2000 & 2005 Assume all costs are passed onto passengers … Carbon supplement per passenger at start of ETS Carbon price €50-€100 London – London Barcelona Washington €2-€15 €10-€60 London Australia €40-€120 Carbon supplement per passenger by 2017 Carbon price London – Barcelona London Washington €300 €15-€40 €70-€155 €140-€310 London Australia Aviation conclusions To conclude Today’s aviation emissions are significant Current aviation growth cannot be reconciled with the 2°C commitment … little/no aviation growth is viable in a 450ppmv carbon budget Moratorium on airport expansion prior to including aviation within EU ETS Aviation is very likely to remain a ‘privileged’ sector An order of magnitude increase in carbon price is necessary An early baseline is essential Indirect issues must be considered Additional & substantial flanking instruments must be introduced … and finally … finally, P.40 of report states “We delude ourselves if our aspirations for a 2°C future resides substantially in the current framing of the EU ETS and the low-carbon technologies and practices that they may engender. Whilst technology undoubtedly has an important medium- and long-term role to play in reducing the carbon intensity of aviation, it is negligent and irresponsible not to engage with the sector’s short-term emissions growth. The urgency with which the industry must make the transition to a low carbon pathway leaves no option, but to instigate a radical and immediate programme of demand management.” … could high oil prices drive this change ? UK Climate Change Targets: End Aviation emissions and the EU ETS Based on research by Kevin Anderson Kevin AndersonResearch & Alice director Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering Tyndall Centre’s energy programme University of Manchester 25th July 2008