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New Jersey's Changing Climate With a Transportation Spin North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Climate Working Group Dr. David A. Robinson Chair, Department of Geography & New Jersey State Climatologist Rutgers University September 28, 2010 New Brunswick, April 16, 2007 John Munson/The Star-Ledger Our mission: Monitor Understand Inform http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim Office of the NJ State Climatologist 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye Weather & climate impact all aspects of life in NJ Transportation Agriculture/horticulture Ecology Water resources Public health & safety Energy Commerce Yes, transportation to be sure Indian Trails in the 1600s Mapping NJ, 2009 Present Road Network Mapping NJ, 2009 Rail lines: 1876 Mapping NJ, 2009 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye Weather - Climate “Players” A mid-latitude squeeze play Diversity at home Altitude Latitude Surface Conditions Land-Water Contrasts Ocean Currents 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye Climate past Past century of NJ climate variability Climate Observations Past 12 months of NJ's climate Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 Year 2010 2005 1949 1999 2002 2006 1955 2008 1900 1943 1973 Summer Temp 76.1 75.6 74.6 74.5 74.4 74.3 74.1 74.0 73.9 73.8 73.8 Summer Rank Year 1 1966 Precip 5.67 2 1957 5.73 3 1929 7.10 4 1949 7.65 5 1964 7.89 6 1913 8.09 7 1923 8.12 8 2010 8.27 9 1963 8.28 10 1944 8.32 Coupled Climate Model Schematic Natural and anthropogenic forcings and 20th century temperatures Meehl, G.A., et al., 2004 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye New Jersey's future climate Rising temperatures Steady or increasing precipitation Increasing variability and extremes - storms, flood, drought, heat……. Rising sea level More warming in the pipeline Future emissions Additional “zero-emission” warming (aka “commitment”) Warming to date Changes in heat index The heat index combines the effects of temperature and humidity to estimate human comfort. Results are from simulations with three global climate models with two emissions scenarios, representing the low and high ends of the IPCC range. Under the high emissions scenario, Tri-State summers at the end of the 21st century are projected to be similar to those in Savannah, Georgia today. Effects of climate change on water resources: more floods and droughts? Spruce Run Reservoir, March 2002 Delaware River, Sept. 2004 Easton-Phillipsburg Bridge June 2006 A recent view of global mean sea level changes Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD Grinsted, Moore and Jevrejeva, Climate Dynamics, 2009 Shipping through the Arctic Elevations below 10 feet in gray 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye Managing climate change Knowledge: Develop a better understanding of the details of future climate change. Mitigation: Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Adaptation: Increase the resilience of society to climate change. Leadership: Raise public awareness of the challenges posed by climate change and the need to mitigate and adapt. 1. Traveling through NJ....or not 2. What drives our weather & climate? 3. Is NJ's climate changing? If so, why? 4. What will the future bring? 5. Addressing climate change 6. Keeping a watchful eye http://climate.rutgers.edu/njwxnet NJ Weather & Climate Network Dry north, Central icing, Southern rain: Sunday evening 12/2/07 Red numbers 2: rain 4: snow 6: freezing rain 7: drizzle Custom Quick Look Information Augmenting automated precipitation observations Daily observations by trained volunteers of all ages Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) http://cocorahs.org Thanks [email protected] http://climate.rutgers.edu