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AN OVERVIEW OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN SCOTLAND Royal Statistical Society Edinburgh Group Meeting 29 September 2015 Martin Macfie Climate Change Statistics Scottish Government 1 Outline of Presentation • Latest statistics and Purpose of collecting data • Headline results – source emissions • Methodological Improvements, Revisions and Uncertainties Latest Statistics and Purpose of collecting data Latest statistics • Latest Official Statistics: Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2013). Published June 2015 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/06/1939 • Contains results of Scotland’s greenhouse gas inventory • What is a greenhouse gas inventory? • Source sectors and different greenhouse gases • Potency of different greenhouse gases – global warming potential Why are we collecting and reporting on these figures? Purpose of collecting data? • The UK and other member states are required to collect emissions data to the United Nations Framework Committee on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Background to UNFCCC • Devolved administrations inventory • This forms the basis of reporting against Scotland’s Climate Change targets – with some consideration of Scotland’s share of EU wide emissions trading Headline Results - Source Emissions Sources of Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2013. Values in MtCO2e Energy Supply, 16.0 Transport (including International Aviation and Shipping), 12.9 Agriculture and Related Land Use, 12.4 EMISSIONS Business and Industrial process, 9.1 Residential, 7.0 Development, 1.6 CARBON SINKS Waste Management, 2.7 Public Sector Buildings, 1.2 Forestry, -10.0 9 GHG emissions fell by 3.6% in 2013; and by 34.3% since 1990. Values in MtCO2e 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Comparison with the Rest of the UK • 2.2% drop in latest year; and • 26.7% fall since 1990 Between 1990 and 2013? Absolute changes (MtCO2e) and percentage changes Total Business and Agriculture and Waste greenhouse gas Industrial Related Land Management Energy Supply emissions Process Use Forestry Residential Public Sector Buildings Transport (including International Aviation and Shipping) -1.0 -12.4% -0.4 -26.2% -0.3 -2.1% Development 5 0 -5 -5.2 -7.2 -72.6% -10 -6.7 -3.7 -23.1% -3.0 42.0% -36.3% -29.5% -15 -20 -25 -30 -27.7 -34.3% 11 -0.3 -14.7% The drop in 2013 is mainly due to electricity production. Cockenzie Power Station’s closure is a big factor. Total greenhouse gas emissions Energy Supply Transport (including Agriculture and International Waste Related Land Aviation and Management Use Shipping) Development Residential Public Sector Buildings Forestry 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -1.1% -0.5 -0.5 -15.7% -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -8.4% -2.0 -2.0 -3.6% -2.5 Business and Industrial Process -0.1 -0.6% 0.0 -0.7% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3% -0.1% 2.6% …but the start of 2013 was very cold. (and the heating system is still on aggregate relatively inefficient and carbon intensive) 16 15.2 The mean annual air temperature in Scotland was: 13.7 14 13.5 11.6 12 10.4 10 8.4 8 2012 2013 7.1 6 4.9 6.1 4.4 2 9.4 10.3 8.6 4 7.32°C in 2012 7.52°C in 2013 11.2 12.2 5 4.8 3.2 2.9 4.6 4.2 2.4 2.2 1.3 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC …despite this, emissions from households and public sector buildings didn’t rise, but they flatlined. Total greenhouse gas emissions Energy Supply Transport (including Agriculture and International Waste Related Land Aviation and Management Use Shipping) Development Residential Public Sector Buildings Forestry 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -1.1% -0.5 -0.5 -15.7% -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 -8.4% -2.0 -2.0 -3.6% -2.5 Business and Industrial Process -0.1 -0.6% 0.0 -0.7% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3% -0.1% 2.6% …emissions from waste continued to fall sharply… 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 The only rise of any note in the latest year was Business and Industrial Process Emissions But this is typical of the normal year-on-year volatility in the series. 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Methodological Improvements, Revisions and Uncertainties How is the inventory compiled? (1) • Covers a wide variety of anthropogenic (man made) sources • Different approaches and sources • Methods used consistent with IPCC requirements How is the inventory compiled? (2) • Most emissions estimates = activity data (e.g. fuel use) x emissions factor (e.g. CO2 emitted per unit of fuel) • Some point source data (e.g. plant specific data used for reporting in EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) • Some more complicated models – e.g. for landfill emissions, for estimating the carbon dynamics in soils • “Bottom-up” and “top down” estimates Revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory • In October 2014, we produced an Statistics paper on Revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory since the time at which the Climate Change targets were set (1990-2008) • http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environme nt/Publications/ghgrevisions • This paper outlined and explained the key revisions by sector, on both a year-on-year basis and on successive inventories • Attend National Inventory Steering Committee. Where available, we consider the impact of likely future revisions in our latest stats publication • This is of real importance in the context of our Climate Change Targets The largest ever revision to base-year emissions in the 2013 stats 82 80.8 80 5.2 78 76 75.6 74 2.6 73.0 72.3 71.8 72 70.2 0.7 0.5 1.6 70 70.2 68 1990-2008 1990-2009 1990-2010 1990-2011 1990-2012 1990-2013 The cumulative effect of revisions since the 1990-2008 inventory is an increase of 10.6 MtCO2e to emissions in the Baseline Period, which represents a 15.1% increase A key revision: increase in the global warming potential of methane with a knock-on effect on emissions from landfill (and agriculture). Impact on Baseline (a 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9% increase in the latest year) 4.0 3.2 3.5 47.3% 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 0.9 1.0 5.7% 0.8 5.6% 0.3 1.5% 0.5 0.1 1.1% 0.1 0.0 5.1% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.6% -0.1 -1.7% -1.0 Waste Management Agriculture and Business and Energy Supply Related Land Use Industrial Process Transport (including International Aviation and Shipping) Development Public Sector Buildings Forestry Residential Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Impact of revisions across time series. Values in MtCO2e 90 1990-2013 INVENTORY 80 70 60 50 40 30 1990-2012 INVENTORY There has been an upwards revision between the 1990-2012 and 1990-2013 inventories across the entire time series. The emissions in the Baseline have been revised upwards by 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9%). 20 The emissions in 1990 have been revised upwards by 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9%). 10 The emissions in 2012 have been revised upwards by 2.0 MtCO2e (3.9%). 0 Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Project Background to project: We were questioned about what appeared to be high uncertainty in the figures from some of our users Some statistical sampling error – but many other causes of error Project Report Published on the 9 June Thanks to our contractors at Ricardo-AEA, who lead up a consortium of inventory compilers: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/ Publications/GHGUncertainties2013Summary Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties Project: Causes of uncertainty • USE OF MODELS – A major source of uncertainty • LACK OF REPRESENTATIVENESS OF DATA – moderate to high uncertainty • LACK OF DATA – Moderate uncertainty • STATISTICAL RANDOM SAMPLING ERROR - Will affect all estimation to a greater or lesser degree • MEASUREMENT ERROR – affects majority of source emissions to some degree • MISREPORTING OF DATA / LACK OF COMPLETENESS OF DATA - Very small sources of uncertainty GHG Inventories adhere to International Reporting Requirements Any questions? • • • • Contact details Martin Macfie [email protected] 0131 244 7626