Download (Senior Assistant Statistician, Scottish Government). "An Overview of

AN OVERVIEW OF GREENHOUSE
GAS EMISSIONS IN SCOTLAND
Royal Statistical Society Edinburgh Group
Meeting 29 September 2015
Martin Macfie
Climate Change Statistics
Scottish Government
1
Outline of Presentation
• Latest statistics and Purpose of collecting data
• Headline results – source emissions
• Methodological Improvements, Revisions and
Uncertainties
Latest Statistics and
Purpose of collecting data
Latest statistics
• Latest Official Statistics: Scottish Greenhouse
Gas Emissions (2013). Published June 2015
http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/06/1939
• Contains results of Scotland’s greenhouse gas
inventory
• What is a greenhouse gas inventory?
• Source sectors and different greenhouse gases
• Potency of different greenhouse gases – global
warming potential
Why are we collecting and reporting on
these figures?
Purpose of collecting data?
• The UK and other member states are required to
collect emissions data to the United Nations
Framework Committee on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
• Background to UNFCCC
• Devolved administrations inventory
• This forms the basis of reporting against
Scotland’s Climate Change targets – with some
consideration of Scotland’s share of EU wide
emissions trading
Headline Results - Source
Emissions
Sources of Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2013.
Values in MtCO2e
Energy Supply, 16.0
Transport (including
International Aviation and
Shipping), 12.9
Agriculture and Related
Land Use, 12.4
EMISSIONS
Business and Industrial
process, 9.1
Residential, 7.0
Development, 1.6
CARBON SINKS
Waste Management, 2.7
Public Sector Buildings, 1.2
Forestry, -10.0
9
GHG emissions fell by 3.6% in 2013; and by
34.3% since 1990. Values in MtCO2e
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Comparison with the Rest of the UK
• 2.2% drop in latest year; and
• 26.7% fall since 1990
Between 1990 and 2013? Absolute changes (MtCO2e)
and percentage changes
Total
Business and Agriculture and
Waste
greenhouse gas
Industrial
Related Land
Management Energy Supply
emissions
Process
Use
Forestry
Residential
Public Sector
Buildings
Transport
(including
International
Aviation and
Shipping)
-1.0
-12.4%
-0.4
-26.2%
-0.3
-2.1%
Development
5
0
-5
-5.2
-7.2
-72.6%
-10
-6.7
-3.7
-23.1%
-3.0
42.0%
-36.3%
-29.5%
-15
-20
-25
-30
-27.7
-34.3%
11
-0.3
-14.7%
The drop in 2013 is mainly due to electricity production.
Cockenzie Power Station’s closure is a big factor.
Total
greenhouse gas
emissions
Energy Supply
Transport
(including
Agriculture and International
Waste
Related Land Aviation and
Management
Use
Shipping)
Development
Residential
Public Sector
Buildings
Forestry
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-1.1%
-0.5
-0.5
-15.7%
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-8.4%
-2.0
-2.0
-3.6%
-2.5
Business and
Industrial
Process
-0.1
-0.6%
0.0
-0.7%
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.3%
-0.1%
2.6%
…but the start of 2013 was very cold.
(and the heating system is still on aggregate relatively inefficient and carbon intensive)
16
15.2
The mean annual air
temperature in
Scotland was:
13.7
14
13.5
11.6
12
10.4
10
8.4
8
2012
2013
7.1
6
4.9
6.1
4.4
2
9.4
10.3
8.6
4
7.32°C in 2012
7.52°C in 2013
11.2
12.2
5
4.8
3.2
2.9
4.6
4.2
2.4
2.2
1.3
0
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
…despite this, emissions from households and
public sector buildings didn’t rise, but they flatlined.
Total
greenhouse gas
emissions
Energy Supply
Transport
(including
Agriculture and International
Waste
Related Land Aviation and
Management
Use
Shipping)
Development
Residential
Public Sector
Buildings
Forestry
0.5
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-1.1%
-0.5
-0.5
-15.7%
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-8.4%
-2.0
-2.0
-3.6%
-2.5
Business and
Industrial
Process
-0.1
-0.6%
0.0
-0.7%
0.0
0.0%
0.0
0.0
0.3%
-0.1%
2.6%
…emissions from waste continued to
fall sharply…
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
The only rise of any note in the latest year was
Business and Industrial Process Emissions
But this is typical of the normal year-on-year volatility in the series.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Methodological Improvements,
Revisions and Uncertainties
How is the inventory compiled? (1)
• Covers a wide variety of anthropogenic
(man made) sources
• Different approaches and sources
• Methods used consistent with IPCC
requirements
How is the inventory compiled? (2)
• Most emissions estimates = activity data (e.g.
fuel use) x emissions factor (e.g. CO2 emitted
per unit of fuel)
• Some point source data (e.g. plant specific data
used for reporting in EU Emissions Trading
System (EU ETS)
• Some more complicated models – e.g. for landfill
emissions, for estimating the carbon dynamics in
soils
• “Bottom-up” and “top down” estimates
Revisions to the greenhouse gas
inventory
• In October 2014, we produced an Statistics paper on
Revisions to the greenhouse gas inventory since the
time at which the Climate Change targets were set
(1990-2008)
• http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environme
nt/Publications/ghgrevisions
• This paper outlined and explained the key revisions by
sector, on both a year-on-year basis and on successive
inventories
• Attend National Inventory Steering Committee. Where
available, we consider the impact of likely future
revisions in our latest stats publication
• This is of real importance in the context of our Climate
Change Targets
The largest ever revision to base-year
emissions in the 2013 stats
82
80.8
80
5.2
78
76
75.6
74
2.6
73.0
72.3
71.8
72
70.2
0.7
0.5
1.6
70
70.2
68
1990-2008
1990-2009
1990-2010
1990-2011
1990-2012
1990-2013
The cumulative
effect of
revisions since
the 1990-2008
inventory is an
increase of 10.6
MtCO2e to
emissions in the
Baseline Period,
which represents
a 15.1%
increase
A key revision: increase in the global warming potential of
methane with a knock-on effect on emissions from landfill
(and agriculture). Impact on Baseline (a 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9%
increase in the latest year)
4.0
3.2
3.5
47.3%
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
0.9
1.0
5.7%
0.8
5.6%
0.3
1.5%
0.5
0.1
1.1%
0.1
0.0
5.1%
1.3%
0.0
0.0
-0.5
0.6%
-0.1
-1.7%
-1.0
Waste
Management
Agriculture and
Business and
Energy Supply
Related Land Use Industrial Process
Transport
(including
International
Aviation and
Shipping)
Development
Public Sector
Buildings
Forestry
Residential
Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Impact of revisions
across time series. Values in MtCO2e
90
1990-2013
INVENTORY
80
70
60
50
40
30
1990-2012
INVENTORY
There has been an upwards revision between the 1990-2012 and 1990-2013
inventories across the entire time series.
The emissions in the Baseline have been revised upwards by 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9%).
20
The emissions in 1990 have been revised upwards by 5.2 MtCO2e (6.9%).
10
The emissions in 2012 have been revised upwards by 2.0 MtCO2e (3.9%).
0
Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Uncertainties Project
Background to project:
We were questioned about what appeared to be high
uncertainty in the figures from some of our users
Some statistical sampling error – but many other causes of
error
Project Report Published on the 9 June
Thanks to our contractors at Ricardo-AEA, who lead up a
consortium of inventory compilers:
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/
Publications/GHGUncertainties2013Summary
Scottish Greenhouse Gas Inventory Uncertainties
Project: Causes of uncertainty
• USE OF MODELS – A major source of uncertainty
• LACK OF REPRESENTATIVENESS OF DATA –
moderate to high uncertainty
• LACK OF DATA – Moderate uncertainty
• STATISTICAL RANDOM SAMPLING ERROR - Will
affect all estimation to a greater or lesser degree
• MEASUREMENT ERROR – affects majority of source
emissions to some degree
• MISREPORTING OF DATA / LACK OF
COMPLETENESS OF DATA - Very small sources of
uncertainty
GHG Inventories adhere to International Reporting
Requirements
Any questions?
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Contact details
Martin Macfie
[email protected]
0131 244 7626