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Introduction to Integrated Environment Assessment Models Presentation by P.R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad APEIS Capacity Building Workshop on Integrated Environment Assessment in the Asia-Pacific Region October 24-26, 2002, Hotel Grand Inter-Continental, New Delhi IIM Ahmedabad Presentation Agenda • Why Integrated Environment Assessment? • What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • What are Integrated Assessment Models and Component Models? Example: Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis • What kind of results and insights do Integrated Assessment provide? Example: Results and Insights from Integrated Assessment of Climate Change • Why and what kind of capacity building for Integrated Assessment in developing countries? IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Environment Assessment? IIM Ahmedabad Multiple Interfaces of Environment Assessment Policymaking Process Models and Frameworks Integrated Assessment Meteorology Geophysics Biology Ecology Geochemistry Knowledge disciplines Atmospheric Chemistry Economics Policy sciences Climatology Hydraulics IIM Ahmedabad What to Integrate? • Diverse Scientific Disciplines • Diverse socio-economic scenarios • Macro and micro-economies • Local and regional boundaries • Short and long time horizons • Local and global environmental concerns • Rural and urban perspectives • Regional emissions and impact assessment • Probability and Decision under uncertainty • Technology IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Assessment? • To assemble, summarise, organise, interpret and reconcile pieces of existing knowledge • To add value through integration (but not to add knowledge) • To develop full range of policy outcomes • To enhance Communication between scientific disciplines and policy formulation IIM Ahmedabad Why Integrated Assessment Models? • Framework for conducting research ensuring consistency pointing to areas where more information is required • IAMs are good ‘forecasting’ and ‘heuristic’ tools • Communications tools between different sciences and between science and policy • Insights from investigations in the domains of the subcomponents IIM Ahmedabad What is Integrated Environment Assessment? Example Integrated Assessment of Climate Change IIM Ahmedabad Climate Issues Understanding “Climate” versus “Climate Change” IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Climate Change Dimensions Atmospheric Composition Human Activities Climate & Sea Level Ecosystems IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Framework for Climate Change IIM Ahmedabad What are Integrated Assessment Models? Example Integrated Assessment Models for Climate Change Policy Analysis IIM Ahmedabad AIM Model System AIM/Energy/Technology/Country A bottom-up technology selection model of energy use and emissions at country and local level A set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model AIM/Bottom-up A bottom-up technology & land use model for Asia-Pacific region AIM/Material AIM Family Environmental Environburden mental Environmental Burden Industry Green Purchase Industry Consumer Environment Fund Wastes Recycle A environmenteconomy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact Environmental Burden Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle) Technology assessment Technology needs Research on new technologies Temperature Precipitation Sunshine Land use Water resource Crop Productivity Socio-economic indicator Impact on food demand Adaptation strategy AIM/Top-down A general-equilibriumtype world economic model AIM/Trend A reduced-form model to project future socioeconomic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries Future economic trend Future environmental trend Korea China India Thailand Japan IIM Ahmedabad Strategic Database Innovational Work System Outputs Outputs Outputs AIM-Trend AIM-Top-down Policy making AIM-Energy Monitoring & Processing Data from IEM Common Database Statistics AIM-Material Outputs AIM-Ecosystem Outputs IIM Ahmedabad MiniCAM An Integrated Modelling Framework Atmospheric Composition MAGICC Human Activities ERB-AGLU Climate & Sea Level SCENGEN Ecosystems AGLU & MERGE MiniCAM COMPONENTS ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CLIMATE & SEA LEVEL MAGICC Atmospheric Chemistry MAGICC Ocean Carbon Cycle HUMAN ACTIVITIES MAGICC Climate MAGICC--Ocean · temperature · sea level ECOSYSTEMS ERB Energy System ERB Other Human Systems MAGICC Terrestrial Carbon Cyc. Un-managed Eco-system & Animals ALU Ag., L'stock & Forestry (none) Coastal System ALU Crops & Forestry ALU Hydrology IIM Ahmedabad What are Component Models? IIM Ahmedabad GDP and CO2 Emissions: AIM/Trend Model 50 GDP growth 40 16 C O 2 per capita [t-C /cap/yr] 30 14 20 12 10 EUROPE+FORMER USSR NORTH AMERICA 8 LATIN AMERICA AFRICA+MIDDLE EAST 6 2040 2030 ASIA PACIFIC 2020 2010 2000 10 1990 0 4 2 0 BGD NPL MMR VNM PAK IDN TJK IND LKA KGZ CHN PHL THA IRN PRK UZB MYS JPN NZL AUS TKM TWN KAZ KOR SGP 2032 2025 2015 Year 2005 1995 C ountry IIM Ahmedabad SO2 Emission AIM/Emission Model 2000 2030 Million Tons < 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.11 0.15 Million Tons < 0.01 0.01-0.017 0.017-0.026 0.026-0.035 0.035-0.044 0.044-0.053 0.053-0.060 > 0.060 < 0.20 IIM Ahmedabad Water Consumption: AIM/Ecosystem Model 1995 Baseline 2032 2030 Fortress World Market Force W A TER C O N S U M P TIO N 2032 Policy Reform 700.0000 CO NSU M PTIO N (km ^3/year) 600.0000 500.0000 400.0000 300.0000 200.0000 MF FW PR GT 100.0000 0.0000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 YEA R Change of water consumption from 1995 to 2032 (Domestic + Agriculture + Industry) 1 m3/ha/year 40 200 1000 5000 IIM Ahmedabad AIM/Top-down & AIM/Bottom-up Model 26 region – 36 sector Computable General Equilibrium Model World level (AIM/Top-down) Country level Bottom-up Bottom-up technology technology & land use Model & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) (AIM/Bottom-up) Bottom-up technology ・・・ & land use Model (AIM/Bottom-up) IIM Ahmedabad Insights from Integrated Climate Change Assessment IIM Ahmedabad Emissions and Concentrations 16 800 IS92a WRE 750 WRE 650 WRE 550 WRE 450 WRE 350 14 12 750 700 IS92a 650 10 600 ppmv 8 6 550 500 4 450 2 2290 2265 2240 2215 2190 2165 2140 2115 2090 2065 2040 2015 2290 2265 2240 2215 2190 2165 2140 2115 2090 300 2065 -2 2040 350 2015 0 1990 400 1990 PgC/yr WRE 750 WRE 650 WRE 550 WRE 450 WRE 350 IIM Ahmedabad Energy and Carbon Emissions for India: AIMENDUSE Model Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions 50 800 Renewables Nuclear Biomass Exa Joules 30 Hydro Gas 20 Oil 600 400 200 10 Coal 0 1995 Carbon (MT) 40 0 2005 2015 Year 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 Year 2025 2035 IIM Ahmedabad GHG versus Local Emissions in India Carbon Emissions SO2 Emissions 800 7 Million Tonnes Carbon (MT) 6 600 400 5 4 3 2 200 1 0 0 1995 2005 2015 Year 2025 2035 1995 2005 2015 Year 2025 2035 IIM Ahmedabad Global Carbon Mitigation Scenarios (2000 - 2100) 1800 Carbon (Million Ton) 1600 1400 Base Case 750ppmv 1200 1000 650ppmv 550ppmv 800 600 400 200 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 IIM Ahmedabad Technology, Energy & Climate: MINICAM Millions of Tonnes of Carbon per year 25,000 20,000 15,000 soil carbon sequestration sequestration from fossil power generation sequestration from synfuels production sequestration from H2 production end-use technology improvements nuclear solar biomass 550 ppmv emissions 10,000 5,000 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 IIM Ahmedabad Indian Energy System Transformation Under 550 ppmv Stabilization Base Case Energy System Energy Changes: 550 ppmv Case 140 120 Exajoules 100 80 60 40 20 550 ppmv 0 1990 2005 Oil 2020 Gas Coal 2035 2050 Biomass Hydro 2065 Solar 2080 2095 Nuclear IIM Ahmedabad Technological Change in India to Stabilize CO2 at 550 ppmv Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation 2000 1600 1200 80 0 550 PPMV 40 0 IIM Ahmedabad Regional Energy Market Development IIM Ahmedabad Impact of Regional Energy Market Developments in South-Asia Emissions Reduction (2015) 10.5 Reduction (%) 9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5 0.0 Carbon Year SOX Grid Integration Grid Integration + Regional Co-operation IIM Ahmedabad Why and What kind of Capacity Building for Integrated Environment Assessment in Developing Countries? IIM Ahmedabad Integrated Environment Assessment: Developing Country Problems • Assessment and modeling capabilities • Inadequate database • Structural changes in the economy • Myriad and conflicting developmental concerns • Weak regional and international linkages • Lack of sustained funding IIM Ahmedabad Limitations of Present Approaches • Limited capability to characterize and parameterize long term interactions between the economy, society, and environment • Assumptions derived from developed world perspective • Inability to characterize discontinuities and extreme events • Weak behavioral interfaces • Distance between analysts and policy makers IIM Ahmedabad Capacity Building Needs for Developing Countries • Inventorize existing best competence, data and experiences • Networking and cooperation with regional and global teams • Promote integrated assessment modeling under developing country expert leadership in cooperation with global experts • Sustained funding • Institutionalize integrated assessment activities IIM Ahmedabad