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Climate Change Student PPT CLASS NOTES AND HOMEWORK ICE CORES: Video/Notes A long cylinder of glacial ice recovered by drilling in glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. They can proide evidence about Earth’s younger climate. Trapped ancient air bubbles Traces of volcanic ash & dust Layers of ice and thickness can tell us past snowfall. ICE CORES: Video/Notes The amount of CO2 in our atmosphere is currently higher than it has ever been. Burning fossil fuels puts extra greenhouse gases in our atmosphere which causes global warming. When greenhouse gases increase, the sea level rises because the glaciers are melting. The Earth getting warmer causes sea levels to rise. ICE CORE: Foldable Contents 4.1 GR What Causes Climate? climate microclimate The main factors that influence temperature are latitude, altitude, distance from larger bodies of water, and ocean currents. lower tropical temperature polar tropical 23.5o S 23.5o to 66. 5o N winter polar 66.5o – 90o N 66.5o – 90o N The greater the latitude, the lower the angle of the Sun’s rays as they strike the Earth. The climate of a temperate zone in summer is more like a tropical zone because the angle of the Sun’s rays is more direct at that time. TRUE A B prevailing winds presence of mountains c. seasonal winds FALSE 4.3 GR Long Term Changes in Climate If plants or animals today need certain conditions to live, then similar plants and animals in the past also required those same conditions. Three sources of information that scientists use to learn about ancient climates are fossils, tree rings, and pollen records. During an ice age, huge sheets of ice, called glaciers, cover large parts of Earth’s surface. Earth’s sea level is lower during an ice age because much of Earth’s water is frozen in the ice sheets. Possible causes of climate change include variations in the position of Earth relative to the sun, changes in the sun’s energy output, volcanic activity, and the movement of continents. sunspots ice ages 4.4 GR Global Changes in Atmosphere El Nino La Nina TRUE A B greenhouse gases Carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane are some of the greenhouse gases. Many scientists have hypothesized that human activities that add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere may be warming Earth’s atmosphere. TRUE FALSE Satellite measurements have shown that the amount of energy the sun produces increases and decreases from year to year. These changes in solar energy could be causing periods of warmer and cooler climates. TRUE FALSE CFCs are chlorine compounds that are the main cause of ozone depletion. CFCs were used in air conditioners and refrigerators, as cleaners for electronic parts, and in aerosol sprays, such as deodorants. stratosphere Chlorine ultraviolet radiation oxygen According to the EPA, a near complete recovery of the ozone CFCs break down ozone in the stratosphere layer is expected near the middle of the 21st If CFCs were completely eliminated, the amount of century. ultraviolet light reaching Earth would be The long diminished because there would be fewer chlorine time scale atoms there to break down the ozone. for this recovery is due to the slow rate at In the late 1970s, the United States and many which ODS other countries banned most uses of CFCs in are removed aerosol sprays. In 1990, many nations agreed to from the phase out the production and use of CFCs. atmosphere by natural processes. CLIMATE STUDY GUIDE Climate Past: (RG 4-1, RG 4-3, Climate Change Notes) 1. What is the difference between CLIMATE and WEATHER? Climate is the average, year-after-year conditions of temperature, precipitation, winds, and clouds in an area. Weather is the condition of Earth’s atmosphere at a particular time and place. 2. What are the 4 main factors that influence temperature of a location? The four main factors that influence temperature of a location are latitude, altitude, distance from large bodies of water, and ocean currents. 3. Why is the tropical climate zone bordered by 23.5°N and 23.5°S? (Hint: Sunlight…) The tropical climate zone, near the Equator, receives the most direct sunlight all year, so is the warmest climate. 4. What are the main factors that influence precipitation? The main factors that influence precipitation are prevailing winds, the presence of mountains, and seasonal winds. Winds are forced to rise and pass over the mountain. The rising warm air cools, and its water vapor condenses and falls as rain or snow on the windward (upslope) side of the mountain where the oncoming wind hits. Temperature can be measured directly using thermometers and satellite data. tree rings corals pollen ice cores Ice cores provide the most important climate data to allow scientists to see back about 500,000+ years. These natural Variations in the position of variations Earth relative to the sun. cannot account for the Changes in the sun’s unprecedent energy output. ed increase in CO2 which is responsible c. Major volcanic eruptions for warming d. Movement of the continents Earth. • Ice at the poles and glaciers are melting back considerably. • Where possible, plants are moving higher in altitude. • Migration patterns of animals are changing in response to a new climate. Plant and animal species have been moving higher in elevation to cooler altitudes. CO2 in the atmosphere forms into carbonic acid. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere leads to increased CO2 in the ocean, making it more acidic. There are more record high temperatures than there are record low temperatures. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific warm; during La Nina sea surface temperatures across the east-central Equatorial cool. The average temperature of the troposphere has changed by increasing by 1 degree C with steadiest increases in the last 25 years. The three greenhouse gases are CO2, (methane) CH4, and water vapor. True – 99% 1-1.3o C Albedo Effect: amount of light reflected; Ice reflects 90% of sunlight; water reflects 10%. Melting the North Polar ice cap will result in decreased albedo. +1-3 °C Atmospheric Water Vapor: Warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor (a very strong greenhouse gas), increasing energy absorbed by the planet. +1-3 °C Melting and Decaying Permafrost: Melting permafrost releases methane (stronger greenhouse gas than CO2) as the now thawed vegetation decays; would result in more energy absorbed by the planet. +1-3 °C • Shorter shipping routes through Pole • Access to resources in Arctic as ice melts • Possible better growing seasons for northern climates • Plants grow better with increased CO2 Changing precipitation could damage current growing areas with droughts or floods. Areas where people just get by could be threatened with starvation Rising Sea Levels could flood coastal areas and make entire countries disappear Possible extreme weather as climate comes into a new balance. Ocean food chain issues with acidification Loss of wildlife (e.g, moose) or commercial harvesting (e.g., lobsters) 1. Reduce CO2 2. Remove CO2 3. Reduce sunlight ADDITIONAL CLIMATE CLASS PPT/NOTES http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/degree/how_do_we_know.jsp Where does the DATA come from? TEMPERATURE Direct measurement • Thermometer record back to 1850 • More recent Satellite data Indirect measurements • Tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake/ocean sediments go back 500,000+ CO2 Direct measurement • Air samples from Hawaii back to 1950 • Air Bubbles in ice cores go back 500,000+ Changes in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide are directly related to changes in temperature Temperature from ice core data CO2 from ice core data Temperature record from Universities and other research institutions Over the century, cities have built up around them. Cities tend to be hotter due to more pavement and less greenery. MAIN CONCERN: Temperature data might be corrupted by heat from cities. Has since been shown to not be an issue Climate Change is a Natural Process! The Earth’s climate has changed many times before without human influence due to Solar changes. ARGUMENT 1 - Earth’s Orbit! ARGUMENT 2 - Solar Output/sunspots Eccentricity: ~100,000 year cycle Earth’s orbit is not a perfect circle. Earth gets closer and farther from the sun as a result. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies in time between nearly circular (with the lowest eccentricity of 0.000055) and mildly elliptical (highest eccentricity of 0.0679) • Milankovitch Cycles – Eccentricity (100,000 year cycle) ––- Obliquity (axial tilt): ~40,000 year cycle. How tilted the Earth is. Varies from 22.1-24.5 ° The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity of the ecliptic) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. Precession: ~13,000 year cycle The tilt of the earth wobbles like a spinning top. Obliquity (axial tilt): ~40,000 year cycle. How tilted the Earth is. Varies from 22.1-24.5 ° The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity of the ecliptic) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 26,000 ARGUMENT 2 – Solar changes are responsible for current warming… CLAIM Sun is the biggest force in changing climate EVIDENCE • Sun goes through cycles that have affected climate in the past • Past climate change matches solar activity • LITTLE ICE AGE in the 1600’s • Maunder Minimum: A period roughly spanning 1645 to 1715 when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. – Fewer sun spots = less solar radiation. – This lead to a cooler period on Earth / Little Ice Age. (Theory) TEMPERATURE CARBON DIOXIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY MAIN TAKEAWAY While the sun has been most responsible for changing climate over history… Current warming appears unrelated to the sun’s activity. Effects on Ice Effects on Plant and Animals Ocean Acidification Weather? OBSERVATION: Ice is shrinking Ice shrinking Poles North Pole Ice free in your lifetimes Last ten years have 5 record low ice years Glaciers Major glaciers around the world retreating Glacier Nat’l park will be ice free by 2030 OBSERVATION: Habitats have changed CLAIM EVIDENCE Plants and Animals • Species moving higher in elevation if they can • Migration patterns altering due to earlier spring and later winter on avg. Absorbed CO2 turns into Carbonic Acid More CO2 in air increases amount of CO2 in the ocean Higher acidity prevents shellfish and plankton from making shells Higher ocean acidity may cause disruptions in food chains that 100’s of millions depend on. Ocean acidity hasn’t changed more than 0.1 pH in 25 million years Increased Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods More Extreme Weather Events MAIN POINT Individual weather events will never be evidence for or against. Or can they SANDY! • As the temperature of oceans rises, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. This was seen in 2004 and 2005. (Katrina) Copyright © 2010 Ryan P. Murphy TEMPERATURE CARBON DIOXIDE SOLAR ACTIVITY MAIN TAKEAWAY While the sun has been most responsible for changing climate over history… Current warming appears unrelated to the sun’s activity. Effects on Ice Effects on Plant and Animals Ocean Acidification Weather? OBSERVATION: Ice is shrinking Ice shrinking Poles North Pole Ice free in your lifetimes Last ten years have 5 record low ice years Glaciers Major glaciers around the world retreating Glacier Nat’l park will be ice free by 2030 OBSERVATION: Habitats have changed CLAIM EVIDENCE Plants and Animals • Species moving higher in elevation if they can • Migration patterns altering due to earlier spring and later winter on avg. Absorbed CO2 turns into Carbonic Acid More CO2 in air increases amount of CO2 in the ocean Higher acidity prevents shellfish and plankton from making shells Higher ocean acidity may cause disruptions in food chains that 100’s of millions depend on. Ocean acidity hasn’t changed more than 0.1 pH in 25 million years Increased Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods More Extreme Weather Events MAIN POINT Individual weather events will never be evidence for or against. Or can they SANDY! • As the temperature of oceans rises, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. This was seen in 2004 and 2005. (Katrina) Copyright © 2010 Ryan P. Murphy 1 meter rise 4 meter rise 2 meter rise 8 meter rise Warming Arctic causes less temperature difference between Polar and Temperate Convection cells reducing Jet Stream Speed. JET STREAM Hurricane Sandy traveled west instead of the typical east due to unusually weak Jet Stream Westerlies A weaker jet stream wiggles more causing bigger dips in its flow allowing colder air south. Scientific consensus is that the Earth is warming ADDED WARMING +1°C or 1.5°F global average so far Additional 2.0°F most likely from CO2 Major corporations, military, and local communities all planning for a changing climate. How much warming do we face? Models that project far into the future are inherently poor. (Remember the short vs. long pool shot) Climate models only look at average conditions and not weather (unlike Jack Halls model from the movie!) If only CO2 was the issue… Most catastrophic warming is based on Feedback Climate Change Feedback 1. Climate change feedback processes may increase or decrease the potential for warming or cooling of the climate. 2. Type of feedback determines how sensitive climate is to change. 3. Feedback data can help us determine future climate state. 4. Positive feedback increases the change. 5. Negative feedback decreases the change. , 93 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 No Feedback 1.0 - 1.3C by 2100 2.0 1.0 0.0 350 450 550 Atmospheric CO2, PPM 650 750 Albedo Effect The amount of light that is reflected by a material is called the albedo. Ice has a high albedo since it reflects 90% of sunlight. When melted, the water underneath has an albedo of just 10%, absorbing much more. Melting the North Polar ice cap will result in more energy absorbed by the planet. +1-3 °C Atmospheric Water Vapor As the atmosphere warms due to rising levels of greenhouse gases, the amount of water vapor it can hold increases. Water vapor is a very strong greenhouse gas and would result in more energy absorbed by the planet . +1-3 °C Melting and Decaying Permafrost Melting permafrost in arctic regions results in the release of methane as the now thawed vegetation decays. Methane is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 and a large release of this would result in more energy absorbed by the planet. +1-3 °C • 2013 Arctic Sea Ice Mega Fracture See Video (visible infrared satellite images, 1 minute) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXjb6MRj_5U Methane Bubbles trapped in Siberian ice https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search;_ylt =A0LEVvB0vntY8F8Amm4nnIlQ?p=methane+ice +fire&fr=yhs-mozilla-002&fr2=pivweb&hspart=mozilla&hsimp=yhs002#id=35&vid=4d05d6706a58a15b30dc73a56 aeb95fa&action=view 98 Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case 10.0 Temperature Increase, Celsius 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 METHANE Likely CO2 Range by 2100 4.0 WATER VAPOR 3.0 No Feedback 1.0 - 1.3C by 2100 2.0 1.0 REFLECTIVITY 0.0 350 450 550 Atmospheric CO2, PPM 650 750 Most likely will not be evenly distributed. Polar regions already warming much faster than others. Mid Latitude and Tropics have very little change so far. Changing Global Temps by Decade Some potential benefits… Shorter shipping routes through Pole Access to resources in Arctic as ice melts Possible better growing seasons for northern climates Plants grow better with increased CO2 Some negative effects… Changing precipitation could damage current growing areas with droughts or floods. Areas where people just get by could be threatened with starvation Rising Sea Levels could flood coastal areas and make entire countries disappear Some negative effects… Changing precipitation could damage current growing areas with droughts or floods. Areas where people just get by could be threatened with starvation Rising Sea Levels could flood coastal areas and make entire countries disappear Possible extreme weather as climate comes into a new balance. Ocean food chain issues with acidification Addressing the problem now would be costly now. Ignoring the problem could be even more costly down the road. Man-made sources of carbon dioxide include the burning of fossil fuels for heating, power generation and transport How can we reduce CO2 emissions? Conserve Energy (Reduce lifestyle) Renewable sources of energy Less driving, more mass transport BUS! 1. 2. 3. Still need to remove the CO2 that has been added to get to the 350 ppm number recommended. How can we remove CO2 emissions? MORE PLANTS SEQUESTRATION (chemical process that removes CO2 and stores it underground. Others? Space Mirrors More Bald Men Others? • “So what?” It is only 2 degrees Celsius. • At 7 degrees less than it is today, the earth was in an ice age. • Absolute worst case scenario would be that ice melt from Greenland and other arctic areas could put too much freshwater into the ocean and turn off the ocean conveyor belt. Copyright © 2010 Ryan P. Murphy • Ocean currents from tropics keep Arctic from growing too large, and sends cooler water to the tropics. • Climate Change Effects Hot Spot Map – Click on a spot to see the effects of climate change. – http://www.climatehotmap.org/ • Don’t forget the difference between weather and climate. – Weather is what is occurring right now. – Climate is weather conditions over a long period of time (years). “So much for global warming.” Copyright © 2010 Ryan P. Murphy 99% agree with human induced climate change