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Report on Greenpeace NZ Campaign to Raise Awareness About Potential Climate Change Impacts on Our Country "When the last tree is cut, the last river poisoned, and the last fish dead, we will discover that we can't eat money." Greenpeace Banner Introduction Earth has gone through massive changes in its long history. Due to natural causes Earth’s climate has fluctuated between being very cold and very hot. In the most recent 10,000 years Earth’s climate has become more stable, allowing flora and fauna to flourish, and our human population to grow significantly. However, in more recent years, particular during the last five to ten decades the climate balance has been upset due mainly to industrialisation, which has caused an increase in the amount of the amount of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in our atmosphere. This global increase in greenhouse gases is shown in the graph at Figure 1. Climate scientists expect that without intervention the Earth’s average temperature will increase by between 1.1 and 6.4°C this century. In New Zealand, average temperatures are expected to increase about 1°C by around 2040 and about 2°C by around 2090. Figure 1: Greenhouse Gas Concentrations 1 International Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) play an increasingly influential role in shaping global policies and a major NGO player in the fight over climate change is Greenpeace, which is an independent campaigning organisation that uses non-violent, creative confrontation to expose global environmental problems, and to force the solutions essential to our future prosperity. In particular, Greenpeace seeks solutions for, and promotes open, informed debate about society's environmental choices. Greenpeace has an international membership of over 3 million with offices in over 40 countries. They maintain that they don’t work to manage environmental problems, they work to eliminate them. That’s why they have executed a climate change campaign. Without such intervention, global levels of greenhouse gases would no doubt continue to grow as a consequence of human activities such as driving petrolpowered venicles, burning coal for heat and electricity, and milling forests. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere and trap the sun's heat, a process often called “global warming”, but perhaps better described as “climate change” due to the likely consequences beyond a mere increase in temperature. Such consequences are likely to include floods, storms, cyclones, droughts and landslips ,all of which could have a very significant impact on our economy, environment and the way we live as summarised at Appendix A. Faced with the choice of deadly, dirty, dangerous energy like coal, oil and nuclear power, or safe, clean and renewable power, what might you decide, Greenpeace challenges us to answer. Doubtlessly, renewable energy sources, smartly used, should meet our demands with the prospect of no oil spills, no humanly-caused climate change, no radiation danger – simply energy we can trust. Greenpeace exists because this fragile Earth deserves a voice. It needs solutions. It needs change. It needs action! The people who make up Greenpeace are a diverse and committed bunch. Their volunteers, activists and staff span the globe, cover the age spectrum, and defy simple categorisation other than a common aim: a green and peaceful future for all. Greenpeace’s number one concern and campaign worldwide is about creating awareness of the detrimental effect of global climate change, and promoting public awareness and debate about the issue. To achieve this aim Greenpeace use research, education, lobbying and diplomacy, as well as high-profile, non-violent protest social action strategies, the local extent and effectiveness of which is examined in this report. Purpose The purpose of this report is to comprehensively examine how the NZ Greenpeace campaign of social action has raised awareness and influenced change given the potential impact of climate change on New Zealand . 2 Scope To comprehensively examine this important climate change issue and Greenpeace’s involvement, the discussion portion of this report addresses the following topics: Description of the issue from different points of view, values and perspectives. Description of the plan for the Greenpeace campaign of social action. Description of the aims of the Greenpeace climate change campaign. Explanation of the polices that the Greenpeace campaign is aiming to change and / or influence. Explanation of the reasons for for Greenpeace individuals and / or groups being involved in the campaign. Explanation of the reasons for Greenpeace individuals and / or groups selecting the actions they did. Exploration of the real and potential consequences of the Greenpeace campaign Critical evaluation of the effectiveness of the Greenpeace campaign, including possible modifications that could have been made to improve the campaign’s influence on policy. Description of the Issue from Different Viewpoints Whether we recognise it or not, we are all stakeholders in the climate change scenario, meaning we can affect climate change for better or for worse, and climate change will affect us for better or for worse. It seems unlikely that many people would oppose climate change or stabililisation initiatives or benefit from global warming especially in the longer term. Although some people challenge the cause of climate change, a greater number are unsure about the impacts – which is where much greater uncertainty exists even among our scientists. New Zealanders’ Perspective. Historically, the average Kiwi hasn’t always given risk the respect it deserves, evidenced today for example by our road carnage. One theory for this relaxed attitude is that many of our ancestors, Maori and Pakeha, must have been hopelessly optimistic to sail huge distances to carve out a life in a strange and often hostile land. So perhaps it’s part of our genetic heritage that we focus on the upside and ignore the possibility that something could go wrong. The “she’ll be right” attitude still prevails. Given a dominant Kiwi philosophy of ambivalence, NZ Greenpeace has it’s work cut out persuading us about the dangers of climate change, particularly in the absence of strong local evidence, and the need for early action. And some Kiwis might think that climate change is something that's happening on the other side of the world, to other people, or even something well into the future, so we don't need to do anything about it here and now. We can eat our cake today, 3 and promise ourselves we will diet tomorrow, and some will tell themselves that there is still some doubt about whether climate change is even happening. Of course, climate change lacks the visibility and immediacy of issues such as job security, local school quality, crime, child abuse and our economic well-being. Nevertheless, In New Zealand likely climate change impacts include higher temperatures, rising sea levels, more frequent extreme weather events (ie, droughts and floods), and changed rainfall patterns (ie, higher rainfall in the west and lower in the east), the consequences of which for us are likely to include: Increased agricultural productivity in some areas, but with risks droughts and proliferation of pests and diseases. Extra costs associated with changing land-use to suit a new climate. Warmer winters with fewer frosts, but hotter summers, bringing increased risks of heat stress and subtropical diseases. Faster growth of forests and vegetation, but native ecosystems could be invaded by exotic species. Rising sea levels increasing the risk of erosion and saltwater intrusion, necessitating more coastal protection. Retreating snowlines and glaciers and changed water flows in major South Island rivers. While some New Zealanders are climate change deniers and argue that any such change is due to natural causes, there is plenty of evidence that climate change is happening. But how concerned might New Zealanders be today that Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet are melting and over some centuries might add up to seven metres of sea-level rise. Also, some New Zealanders would argue that we are too small to make a difference, China’s doing nothing and will not do anything to impede its growth and nothing we do will offset their rampant pollution, and if we Kiwis do anything it will just force our businesses overseas. Yet, I don't think the All Blacks would say we're too small to win this 2015 World Cup and as the saying goes, “If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito in your room.” But while NZ is "only" responsible for 0.2 per cent of global emissions, the point is - on a per capita basis our emissions are roughly twice China's rate. So why would we expect China to cut back their emissions when they look around and see that they are far from the biggest offenders on a per capita basis. Another view is that there is nothing we can do about climate change and we are simply locked into eventual extinction. Pacific Islanders’ Perspective. However, our Pacific neighbours, who live in some very low-lying countries, do appreciate that they are at the mercy of rising sea levels, yet they have produced almost no global warming pollution. Small island states are particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. The Pacific is in fact without a doubt one of the world’s most vulnerable regions when it comes to risk of disaster due to climate change, particularly several of the low-lying coral islands. And climate change is already affecting Pacific Islands with dramatic revenue loss across sectors such as agriculture, water resources, forestry, tourism and other industry- 4 related sectors. Ocean warming, frequent tropical cyclones, flash foods and droughts are likely to have dramatic impact on food production system in Pacific Islands. Local food production is vital to the Pacific Islands where the majority of rural people still live and depend on subsistence agriculture. Despite being one of the wealthiest countries in the Pacific Islands Forum and development partner to many island countries, New Zealand continues to take little action to address climate change. At Pacific Forum meetings New Zealand has called itself a “fast follower” in climate change negotiations, but as the cartoon at Figure 2 suggests, perhaps todate New Zealand has done what little we must to avoid appearing complacent. Figure 2: Perhaps the Pacific Forum needs to take the climate change issue more seriously given the its impact on our Pacific neighbours. New Zealand Industrial and Agricultural Perspective. In the shorter term the local and worldwide oil industry in particular would not be keen to see a downturn in fossil fuel usage. Oil provides 40% to 43% of all energy used by the world. Oil and coal each account for 40% of global warming emissions from fossil fuels worldwide. Current reserves of oil alone are more than enough to take us into fullblown climate chaos. Natural gas, often touted for its supposed ecological benefits, is not much better. A glance at the total global coal reserves is enough to induce despair. However, oil is the lifeblood of our local economy. Today, in our country, oil is being used to power most of our vehicles, making us all very dependent on it in some way - to get to work, to get our food, to see our loved ones, or to go on holiday. There are many cars, buses, trucks and planes moving around our cities, our country and its skies, connecting people and moving stuff within New Zealand and around the world. But all of these vehicles need thousands of litres of oil to keep them going every day. And while that’s taking a toll on the air we breathe, on our energy security, our economy, the environment and our climate, a large number of New Zealand businesses have a vested interest in oil, particularly our agrucult and tourist industries. Thus, many corporates would be apprehensive, at least in the shorter term, about about Greenpeace’s climate change initiatives. According to 5 "New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory " (http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/New%20Zeala nd/1/New%20Zealand%20INDC%202015.pdf) published by the NZ Ministry for the Environment, in July 2015, shows that in 2013 agriculture contributed 48% and transport 19% of total emissions. See the detailed breakdown at Figure 3. The global average for agricultural emissions is 13%. On the subject of figures, MercedesBenz, Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi have joined the growing list of manufacturers whose diesel cars are known to emit significantly more pollution on the road than in regulatory tests, but of course we should not use this current scandal to pillory climate change statistics, yet it makes one ponder the accuracy of seemingly precise climate change predictions. Figure 3: Sources of greenhouse gas emissions – New Zealand 2013 NZ Government Perspective. Public attitudes will guide how, when and whether our government effectively responds to the climate change challenge. At present it seems they are doing the minimal possible. Public opinion influences national priorities and the acceptability — as well as the acceptance — of new policies and technologies. In the coming decade, Kiwi awareness and concerns about climate change could shift dramatically if energy prices rise, if concerns about political stability in the Middle East and in other major energy-producing regions of the world continue, and if national policy initiatives and international agreements push countries to take aggressive actions to stem carbon emissions and reduce water and air pollution. Gradually, and partly as a consequence of the Greenpeace campaign, our politicans now recognise climate change as a problem that warrants action. They seem more willing to discuss options, although not yet nuclear power, which 6 alternative energy source Greenpeace stronly oppose. In fact, nuclear power presents the ultimate catch-22 for environmentalists. It doesn't generate a lot of greenhouse gases, but it does produce long-lasting toxic waste. Description of Greenpeace Campaign Aims Climate change is Greenpeace’s number one global priority. They maintain that it is the greatest environmental threat that humanity has ever faced and unchecked it will adversely affect human society and the world’s biodiversity on an unprecedented scale. Thus, the Greenpeace campaign aims to stop climate change and provide provide New Zealand with reliable alternative renewable sources of energy – wind, solar, hydro, geothermal. Their generic campaign aims are: To improve and strengthen government action. To promote clean, renewable energy. To stop the use of dirty energy. Greenpeace describe fossil fuels including coal, natural gas, and oil as dirty energy since burning fossil fuels releases carbon in the form of carbon dioxide, the most significant greenhouse gas emitted through human activities. Greenpeace believe that oil companies have already found enough oil to cause dangerous climate change and if they make available existing reserves, the effects on the climate could be catastrophic. Greenpeace recognised the need to establish a credible action plan to dramatically lower our emissions – one that would demonstrate their collective commitment to the climate change challenge. Description of the Campaign Plan Greenpeace tell us that nstead of spending money exploring for more oil, we must begin now to invest in the future - clean, renewable energy. To continue with business-as-usual is to gamble with our lives and risk major ecological and economic disruption. Thus, the NZ Greenpeace plan to realise the climate change campaign aims involves a variety of sdtrategies including education, protesting, writing to the newspaper and lobbing politicans. Speciofically, they anticipated that once implemented their plan will: Cut Greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 to 40 percent of 1990 levels. Replace dirty fossil fuel energy with efficient renewable energy sources. Reduce climate pollution through the “smart” farming practices. Greenpeace climate change plan execution policies are designed to achieve these objectives. Greenpeace is known particularly for its direct actions and as a consequence has been described as the most visible environmental organisation in the world. It has also been a source of controversy; its motives and methods (some illegal) have received criticism and the organisation's direct actions have sometimes sparked legal actions against Greenpeace activists, such as fines and suspended 7 sentences. Greenpeace sometimes use the “greater good” defence as for the Waihopai spy base incident. Explanation of Campaign Policies NZ Greenpeace campaign policies are focused primarily on direct action, public awareness and education, and political lobbying. These policies and their implementation are explained here: Direct Action. Creative nonviolent action will mobilise public opinion. The objective is to obtain as much coverage as possible through the media. Greenpeace has mastered the art of using images, as for example when earlier this year when activists scaled Parliament House with a banner reading, "Cut pollution, create jobs? Yeah, nah." See Figure 3. Their leader said,"I think it is very important to put that pressure on [the Government] because it is an international problem and we need to call for action so it's very important that the spotlight is on New Zealand at this point in time. Especially leading up to the summit in Paris later on this year, [because] New Zealand is really not pulling its weight at all and is being very constructive on the international stage.” However, instead of the focus being on their cause, the local story became more about how they managed to breach parliament security. The four activists were convicted of trespassing and ordered to pay reparation of $750 each. The organisation's methods, such as the use of direct action have sometimes led to controversy and legal action. Examples of Greenpeace non-violent direct action (also known as nonviolent resistance or civil resistance) include sitins, strikes, workplace occupations, blockades and hacktivism, while violent direct action has included political violence, sabotage, property destruction, and even assaults. The Greenpeace climate change campaign has involved several of these tatics. Figure 3: NZ Greenpeace climate change activists in action at Parliament House. Public Education and Awareness. Greenpeace outreach occurs through door-todoor and direct dialogue and fund-raising programmes. Canvassers distribute fact 8 sheets and consumer guides. Greenpeace use multi-media extensively, including online interactive documentaries, slides, photos, essays, videos, pocasts and webcams. One very useful Greenpeace publication is the Clean Energy Guide (www.cleanenergyguide.org.nz) that provides comprehensive information in a very readable style that we need to know in order to switch to a cleaner, renewable electricity provider and help stop dangerous climate change. With consumer pressure Greenpeace aims to discourage energy companies from using fossil fuels and encourage them to move to producing clean renewable energy. In the past it has been difficult to choose a cleaner electricity provider because of a lack of information, but that has changed. Greenpeace has collated the information for us, to make the choice easy. As part of the campaign, Greenpeace investigated electricity providers in New Zealand and looked at how they currently generate electricity, their future generation plans and their policies for the future regarding renewable energy and fossil fuels, the result is this Clean Energy Guide. Greenpease reckon that almost anyone with an electricity account can switch to a cleaner energy supplier with little more than a phone call or by filling in an online form. By switching your energy supply Greenpeace envisages a strong message will be sent to the energy companies that Kiwis do not want to buy, or promote, dirty electricity. The Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution publication (http://www.greenpeace.org/ international/Global/international/publications/climate/2012/Energy%20Revolution %202012/ER2012.pdf) provides a consistent fundamental pathway for how to protect our climate: getting the world from where we are now to where we need to be by phasing out fossil fuels and cutting CO2 emissions while ensuring energy security. Greenpeace multimedia and interactive climate change education material includes audio slideshows, photos, special reports and videos on climate, oceans, forests, toxics, and sustainable agriculture. Political Lobbying. Greenpeace campaigners attempt to reach "mainstream" politics. During the campaign for the ratification of the Kyoto protocol on climate change, Greenpeace was not powerful enough to counterbalance the fossil fuel industry, which with government promoted the idea that Kyoto would not be economically viable. Greenpeace showed a lack of consensus on that issue. The organisation's story needs to "sell" well and be presented in language that broadcasters and ordinary people understand. But what does sell well? First it needs to be entertaining. Even if this type of strategy cannot meet educational objectives, it does influence decision-making in the political arena. Greenpeace has the political power to get results where smaller organisations are not very efficient. Greenpeace is the only group that can bring changes in the political arena by efficiently targeting pressure points through the use of mass media. Greenpeace contends that the National led government has an appalling record with regards to tackling climate change and that their own official figures speak for themselves. Emissions are currently on track to be 50% higher than our promised reductions and New Zealand has dropped out of Ernst and Young’s ranking as a desirable place to do clean energy business and we have been scored as “very poor” on the global Climate Change Performance Index 2015. And this despite having 80% renewable electricity. Greenpeace alleges that he National Party is suffering a policy vacuum when it comes to climate. It needs to match its rhetoric on tackling climate change with 9 actual policies. According to Greenpeace there appears to be no plan from National to actually reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which is the only real solution to climate change. Of course political parties are inclined to be poll-driven and thus short-sighted. NZ Greenpeace suggests that the enduring legacy of this Government could be a failure to act on climate change, which both makes us look bad on the world stage, and will make it harder and more expensive for us to move to a lowcarbon economy in the future. Carbon Tax. Greenpeace supports calls for a revenue-neutral carbon tax as a means to help reduce emissions. They favour transition from an ineffective Emissions Trading Scheme to an effective carbon tax that provides a greater degree of certainty over the price on emissions, creates improved transparency, and provides far stronger incentives for emissions reduction. The charge on carbon will send a consistent price signal to consumers and businesses to encourage them to reduce their carbon footprint, ensure that polluters pay, reward businesses and households that are carbon efficient, encourage innovation by making low-carbon clean technology alternatives more attractive financially. While carbon tax will help, it is only one part of an integrated Greenpeace strategy. Explanation of Reasons for Involvement in the Campaign People are mostly involved in this Greenpeace climate change campaign because they believe the devastating effect that unrestrained climate change will have on our environment. There are some 15,000 Greenpeace volunteers worldwide who do everything from licking envelopes to climbing smokestacks. Volunteers who wish to be activists are usually given action and non-violence training. In answer to the question, “What inspires you to support Greenpeace?” (http://www.greenpeacefund.org/yourturn-calendar/) responses include these: “I have always been an environment lover and with the work Greenpeace is doing to protect our planet it seemed critical to join in. Combined with the fact they are completely neutral, not taking money from corporations or governments, as well as global, with campaigns that bring power and focus to important issues. The other big thing that keeps me involved with Greenpeace are its “victories”. So many charities are doing like things but don’t always have the victories/successes behind their work. With Greenpeace, in the last 5 years, progress and victories are happening all the time to show movement and success, which makes a huge difference to me.” “Why do I support Greenpeace? Because your philosophy includes the concept that humans should be stewards no despoilers of our planet. Alas, greed and the lust for comfort are riding too high. I am in my 90’s have not owned a car for 14 years and do my best to waste not.” “I have been supporting Greenpeace for many years. I remember the loss of the Rainbow Warrior in the Pacific to protect the planet. Greenpeace is 10 unique among environmental groups because its activists and supporters put their lives on the line to protect the planet we depend on for clean air, water, food, and so many other life giving treasures.” “Greenpeace is a gutsy environmental ACTION organisation, in a culture where other organisations walk into negotiations with compromise at the top of their action list. We can NOT compromise anything anymore. It’s what has brought us species and planet devastation.” Thus, reasons for involvement are a love of the environment, a wish to protect it and an appreciation of Greenpeace action-oriented methods of protest, their independence and their non-negotiable position on environmental issues. Greenpeace’s celebrity supporters, such as Sir Paul McCartney, and many Hollywood heavyweights, including Jane Fonda, Robert Redford and Penelope Cruz, are no doubt an attraction for some. Some support Greenpeace Greenpeace accepts no donations from corporate, government, political parties or multinational bodies like the United Nations. Thus, they can maintain an independent voice, but this means they rely totally on individual supporters to fund our work. Thus, people’s involvement and financial support enables Greenpeace to investigate, campaign, document and lobby for a sustainable balance between humans and the environment worldwide. With people’s involvement Greenpeace can expose environmental abuses and given its significant membership it has proven influence. Explanation for Reasons for Selecting Actions Undertaken The reasons for the range actions that Greenpeace has taken and propose to take over their climate change concerns is that these different actions have proved to be effective in the past. And the range of actions available will be more or less effective with different stakeholder groups – who may or may not agree Greenpeace’s climate change concerns, and may or may not have much influence, but all of whom will be affected by climate change. Greenpeace often uses sensational, nonviolent confrontations to expose governments and corporations that abuse environmental laws. The reason for these bold tactics is that they create journalistic buzz, get the public's attention and frequently influence national and international environmental and conservation policies – they are effective. Climate Change Campaign Consequences The NZ Greenpeace climate change campaign is on-going and will doubtlessly continue and with increasing vigour particularly if it is proves to be successful in its aims. Todate, the consequences, real and potential, of the campaign are hard to measure, but are assessed here in terms of the campaign aims: To improve and strengthen government action. Although government may not admit to it, it seems very likely that NZ Greenpeace’s climate change direct and 11 lobbying is having an impact with central government who set legislation and policy. The key piece of legislation for adapting to climate change and associated natural hazards is the Resource Management Act (RMA). Now all people exercising duties and functions under the RMA are required to have particular regard to the effects of climate change and this is undertaken as part of wider natural hazards management. Other adaptation related legislation, policies and plans include the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act, the National Infrastructure Plan and the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement. Central government also provides information and guidance to local government and businesses such as the manual “Preparing for coastal change” and the report “Impacts of climate change on land-based sectors and adaptation options.” Central government also funds research and publishes information on climate change impacts and prepares for, and responds to, major natural hazard events. Such legislative initatives may not have come to fruition without pressure from Greenpeace and like organisations. To promote clean, renewable energy. Greenpeace argue that it is time for New Zealand to invest in clean, safe energy sources. They believe their endeavours helped to persuade the previous Labour-led government to set a renewable energy target of 90 per cent by 2025, which policy is a great endorsement of Greenpeace's Energy Revolution report (http://www.greenpeace.org/newzealand/en/reports/global-energy-report/), which concluded that a 100 per cent renewable target is doable in New Zealand. The Labour government also said no to any new fossil fuel generation for the next 10 years. Unlike fossil fuel-based energy, renewable energy is reliable, limitless power generated by natural forces and processes such as sunshine, wind, flowing water (hydro), organic materials (biomass) and geothermal heat. And in the future there will also be ocean energy, such as tidal or wave power. To promote the clean, renewable energy goal Greenpeace develpoed the Clean Energy Guide (http://www.greenpeace. org/new-zealand/en/campaigns/climate-change/clean-energy/clean-energyguide/) that provides the information we need to switch to a cleaner, renewable electricity provider and help stop dangerous climate change. In 2014, a Consumer survey revealed that 64 percent of customers had shopped around for better energy better deals. Some of this shopping would no doubt be as a result of the Greenpeace guide. To stop the use of dirty energy. Greenpeace opposes the development and building of fossil fuel energy sources in New Zealand and due to some relentless campaigning by lots of different people including Greenpeace, Mighty River Power's Marsden B coal fired power station proposal was abandoned in March 2007. See too Figure 4. And Figure 5 shows Lucy Lawless aboard the Shellcontracted drilling rig, Noble Discoverer. In her defence see said, “I owe it to my children to be counted among those demanding immediate action on climate 12 change. If we don’t stand up to companies like Shell and call them to account for their reckless pursuit of oil into the farthest unspoiled reaches of the world, who will?” By the fourth day when the police finally ascended the tower, 130,000 people had evidently added their voices to the Greenpeace call that Shell quit the arctic. Shell has now withdrawn from the Arctic, which is a victory for Greenpeace and over 7 million Arctic Defenders worldwide. Figure 4: Greenpeace activist Adam Shore hangs from the side of the ship Atermon, in a protest to stop the unloading of coal from Indonesia to be burnt at the Huntly power station. More than 50 Greenpeace activists took direct action in the first half of 2012 by boarding the Anglo-Dutch giant’s icebreakers and oil-drilling ships in the seas off New Zealand, Sweden and Germany, while thousands more volunteers have voiced their own message to Shell, the first major international oil company to make exploitation of the Arctic a major focus. Greenpeace predicted that if Shell struck oil, other global oil giants would quickly follow and spark an Arctic oil rush, threatening the pristine environment and the species and communities who call it home. The Greenpeace actions galvanised public opposition to the threat to the Arctic, and 2.3 million people have now joined the Greenpeace orchestrated campaign to declare the Arctic off limits to oil drilling and destructive industry. 13 Figure 5: Greenpeace activists shine a light on Shell’s plans to drill for oil in the icy Arctic wilderness. Shell has now quit its Arctic venture. Campaign Evaluation NZ's size dictates that it c an never be a maj or contri butor to global war ming either globally or or i n the Pacific . Whatever meas ures it i ntr oduc es are s ymbolic onl y. It is the big pl ayers on the world stage who must chang e their ways. T hat is the unfortunate tr uth. Eventuall y, even without global war ming, all l and mass es will eventuall y be cons umed i n a proc ess that has exis ted for millions of years. All l and treasur es will eventuall y go , that is als o an unfortunate and irreversi ble truth. The climate change issues that Greenpeace want to resolve require long-term campaign work and a massive shift in opinions on the environment and ecology. In short, they need to open up to a lot more people, and inspire those people to take action. Anyway, given the consequences of the campaign, it seems that it has been a success thus far… Climate chaos is not inevitable. Renewable energy and energy efficiency can provide the energy and emissions reductions we need without undesireable side effects. The Greenpeace Energy Revolution provides a blueprint for a reliable global energy supply, which doesn't compromise our climate. I suggest that much of Greenpeace’s climate change communication makes people feel bad, irrelevant and useless, when we should be helping people to understand (and trust) that they can, and are, making a difference. We have all grown up in a culture of material consumption, acquisition and possession. This is what we call our "quality of life” and is how we measure our success, our achievement, our status, our desirability. Much of combating climate change is about letting go of "things”. It is no wonder therefore that people are reluctant to change. They feel as though they 14 have worked all their lives to get their standard of living to where they want it, and now Greenpeace are telling them they have to ride a bike. No-one likes to be the bearer of bad news. One of Greenpeace’s challenges in reaching the numbers of people that they need to is how to define an effective social content strategy that fulfils their overall mission. The problem is that people look to social media for escapism, not for bad news. Greenpeace struggle to make their messages heard on those networks when they led with very problem-loaded messages. Also, I suggest that this Greenpeace campaign cannot afford a Sea Shepherd-like incident as it is astonishing how quickly a reputation and image can be destroyed. VW is the latest in a long and undistinguished line – oil companies, banks, FIFA and so on. And it is not simply a matter of the scandal, but also the cover-up, who knew what and when. Huge donations are needed to fund the climate change campaign. Of necessity, Greenpeace is becoming a corporate fundraising machine and that may be the organisation’s vulnerabiliy - imagine "Climategate"!! Concluding Thoughts New Zealand’s size dictates that we can never be a major contributor to global warming either globally or or in the Pacific. Whatever measures we take are largely symbolic only. It is the big players on the world stage who must also change their ways. Yet, if NZ can triumph in sport and lead the world on votes for women and nuclear disarmament, we can be climate heroes too. Otherwise we will be blamed for choosing exploitation over conservation. We are now on the UN Security Council and have a well-earned reputation for punching above our weight. The world looks to us to be a voice for what is right, to be an advocate for the small guy. However, if the world sees that even progressive, clean, green New Zealand is refusing to commit to real action on climate change, then this sends the message that it's all too hard and that they do not need to try either. New Zealand has abundant, diverse renewable energy resources. Around 80% of our electricity has come from renewable sources in recent years – this is among the highest in the OECD. We are making progress towards reaching our target of 90 percent of electricity coming from renewable sources by 2025. If there was ever a no-brainer for New Zealand, it is eletcric cars. We are swimming in emission-free, renewable energy from hydro, geothermal and wind sources, and once the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter closes we will have 15% more. Importantly, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, to be attended by 196 countries, will be held in Paris from 30 November to 11 December. The conference objective is to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the nations of the world. As French Foireifn Minister Laurent Faabius says, “Climate talks can’t fail as there is no alternative planet.” It is important to New Zealand that the international community shares the effort 15 required to combat climate change in a fair manner. Meanwhile Greenpeace and other activists have promised the largest ever climate civil obedience ever at this Paris conference. Backed by a parallel call for divestment from fossil fuels, the call to keep it in the ground is has become a powerful rallying cry. Global warming is an issue that is, well, global. The benefits of one country’s carbon emissions reductions are distributed worldwide while the costs are isolated to the individual country. Steps taken to reduce emissions by some countries can be negated by increases in emissions in other countries. So if action is to be taken on climate change, it must be done so cooperatively. The 2015 Paris Conference provides an opportunity to do just that. Climate change is reshaping human civilization. How we respond may determine the future of our species. Meanwhile, oil companies may be anxious if we start to abandon the internal combustion engine. And the recent decision to exclude plug-in cars for our Government fleet is a missed opportunity, although what if the battery dies in Naenae?! Appendices: A. Summary of Climate Change impacts on NZ References: Exchange of email traffic between Emma Young and Brenna Gotje, Supporter Relationships, Greenpeace, Aotearoa New Zealand NZ Listener, 26 September – 2 October, feature article “PowewrDrive” http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/about/ http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/how-climate-change-affects-nz/climatechange-impacts http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/campaigns/climate-change/ http://www.cakex.org/sites/default/files/documents/Exec-Summary-PIRCAFINAL2.pdf http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/New%20Zeala nd/1/New%20Zealand%20INDC%202015.pdf http://www.leftcom.org/en/articles/2014-02-24/climate-change-the-alternative-issocial-collapse-or-socialism 16 Appendix A: Summary of Climate Change impacts on NZ Source: http://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/how-climate-change-affectsnz/climate-change-impacts ISSUE MAIN POINTS Higher temperatures More frequent intense winter rainfalls are expected to increase the likelihood of flooding by rivers, as well as flash flooding when urban drainage systems become overwhelmed Water demand will be heightened during hot, dry summers Longer summers with higher temperatures and lower rainfall will reduce soil moisture and groundwater supplies River flows are likely to be lower in summer and higher in winter Lower river flows in summer will raise water temperatures and aggravate water quality problems Flooding Water resources Health Biodiversity There is likely to be an increase in demand for airconditioning systems and therefore for electricity in summer Conversely, there will be a reduction in demand for winter heating meaning less costs for bill payers and reducing stress on those who cannot afford electricity Higher levels of mortality related to summer heat are expected Higher winter temperatures would be likely to lead to a reduction in winter related mortality and illnesses such as colds and flu Warmer weather would favour conditions for increased competition from exotic species as well as the spread of disease and pests, affecting both fauna and flora Warmer temperatures will reduce some critical habitats, increasing the risk of localised extinction Increased summer drought will cause stress to dry lowland 17 ISSUE MAIN POINTS Increased temperatures may reduce comfort of occupants in domestic, commercial and public buildings, and could lead to business disruption Hotter summers may damage elements of transport infrastructure, causing buckled railway lines and rutted roads, with associated disruption and repair costs Households may find it more difficult to access adequate insurance cover in the face of increased flood risk Fruit and vegetable growers may find it more expensive to insure against weather related damage eg, hail The risk management of potential climate change impacts may provide significant opportunities for business Built environment Transport Business and Finance forests Earlier springs and longer frost-free seasons could affect the timing of bird egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants : 18