Download Global Climate Change and Population

Climate Change in China:
Impacts and adaptation
Defra-DFID
China-UK collaboration
Reading July 29th, 2008
Prof Lin Erda
[email protected]
Chinese Academy of Agricultural
Sciences
Declan Conway, UEA
[email protected]
Achievements in Phase I (2001-04)
Climate Change Scenarios
Temperature to increase by
3~4℃ and rainfall to increase
10~12% by 2080s
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Crop Yield Changes
Yields of rice, maize and wheat
to change significantly in the
next 80 years - without any
adaptations
Phase II (2005-08)
Aims:
 Improvements to national modeling
of climate impacts
 Ningxia case study: Integrated
assessment for adaptation policy
making
New results from Phase II
Integrating climate change, water
availability and socio-economic
scenarios
 Climate Change;
 CO2 fertilization effects;
 Water Availability;
 Agricultural land conversion;
 All drivers together
CLIMATE
SCENARIOS
 T,  P,  R
EFFECTS OF CO2
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
SCENARIOS
No, A2, B2
GDP, Pop., Water demand,
Land use
IMPACTS ON TOTAL PRODUCTION
ADAPTATION POLICIES
IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS, WATER
AVAILABILITY, AND ARABLE LAND
Improvements in
Agric. Tech.
Land use change
policies
Water allocation
policies
2020s
Precipitation change (%)
20
2050s
2080s
15
PRECIS 2020s
PRECIS 2050s
10
PRECIS 2080s
5
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
-5
-10
Temperature change (degree C)
– Annual change in temperature and rainfall
for China: 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s
– 17 GCMs from IPCC and PRECIS (A2
emissions)
A2 scenario
B1 scenario
2020s - Rainfall Changes
8
6
4
2
0
West China
NorthEast China
East China
North China
South China
China
-2
-4
A2 scenario
B1 scenario
2050s - Rainfall Changes
10
8
6
4
2
0
West China
-2
NorthEast China
East China
North China
South China
China
Change in total cereal production with
different combinations of drivers
Climate Change
With CO2
Only Climate Change
Climate Change
With CO2 and water
Climate Change
All drivers
Climate Change
Cereal per capita (kg)
Changes in cereal production per
capita under combinations of drivers
320
CC only A2
300
CC/CO2 A2
280
CC/CO2/WA A2
All drivers A2
260
CC only B2
240
CC/CO2 B2
220
CC/CO2/WA B2
200
All drivers B2
180
2000
2020s
2050s
The effect of adaptation strategies
on cereal production per capita
420
A2_No
A2_WD
Cereal per capita (kg)
380
A2_WD+LP
340
A2_WD+LP+AT
300
B2_No
B2_WD
260
B2_WD+LP
220
B2_WD+LP+AT
180
2000
2020s
2050s
China Case Study: Regional Impacts,
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
–
Institute of Environment and Sustainable
Development in Agriculture
Ningxia CDM service centre
Ningxia Meteorological Bureau
Prof Lin Erda
[email protected]
Chinese Academy of
Agricultural Sciences
Declan Conway, UEA
[email protected]
Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China
Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty
Range of different farming systems
Ningxia regional Integrated
Assessment – objectives
 Research impacts and vulnerability in the agricultural
sector
 To help develop the capacity to plan for and respond
to a changing climate in China and Ningxia
 Design a regional adaptation framework and strategy
for Ningxia
 Awareness raising, dissemination and engagement
Adaptation guidelines for Ningxia

Technical report

User-friendly report for decision-makers
consisting of three separate sections
1. Short presentation of an ‘adaptation
framework’
2. Explanation of how to apply the framework,
experience from Ningxia
3. An example of an adaptation strategy for the
agricultural sector in Ningxia
An adaptation framework for Ningxia
Working with UKCIP
New knowledge/
research
1 Assess climate risks
Adaptation as a process
2 Integrate development and
adaptation goals
3 Identify adaptation
options
6 Monitoring and evaluation
5 Implementation
4 Prioritise options
Table 1. Recent climate variability and extremes in Ningxia
Climate factor
Evidence of local impacts
Recent warming:
Minimum and maximum
temperatures have
warmed, particularly
since the 1980s
Positive impacts include winter wheat has migration
northward, harvest time has increased, frost free days have
increased, and cold and frost disasters have decreased.
Rainfall: long-term
variability has been
fairly modest and is
similar across the whole
region. [Some larger
monthly and subregional trends]
Of all three agro-ecosystems surveyed, drought is the
most recognized meteorological disaster, especially in the
middle arid area and southern rainfed mountainous area.
Most respondents in the middle arid area believe that it
has become increasingly difficult to acquire drinking water.
Major drought 200406: Rainfall lowest on
record in some areas
Observations and local experience support an increased
frequency and intensity of droughts with negative impacts
on livelihoods.
Crop failure experienced in some areas, significant
economic impacts, especially in central area
Some farmers, who depend on rainwater collection
cellars, have to buy water in the drought period.
Rural livelihoods and vulnerability
to climate hazards in Ningxia
Questionnaires and discussions with farmers
VULNERABILITY CONTEXT
shocks
ASSETS
seasonality
ACTIVITIES
trends
OUTCOMES
POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT
government
laws & rights
democracy
Table 2. Future climate change and key risks and opportunities in Ningxia
Climate factor
Main effects, short and long
term
Confidence in
scenario
Continued warming,
e.g. max temperatures
increase with B2 and
A2;
2020s 1.6, 1.8°C
2050s 2.6, 3.6°C
Benefits from longer growing
season
Possible negative impacts of
extreme temperatures on yield
Change in frequency and
distribution of pests and disease
High confidence, all
models show warming
at fairly similar rates
Medium confidence in
secondary impacts
(CO2 fertilisation
critical)
Rainfall trends:
moderate increase
overall (drier in summer,
wetter in spring);
2020s +3%, +5%
2050s +4%, +8%
Moderate impacts on water
availability and soil moisture.
Impacts will depend on seasonal
timing of changes
High-medium
confidence, all models
show increase in
rainfall but seasonal
changes less clear
High-level adaptation
recommendations for agriculture
and prioritisation

Consider establishment of a crossdepartmental group on adaptation within
regional government

Raising awareness on climate
change trends, potential impacts and
adaptation activities across the region
Table 6. Examples of priority adaptations
Sector /
Risk or
Risk
opportunity priority
Possible high
level adaptations
Respon- Adapt.
sible
priority
stakeholder(s)
Northern Ningxia
RISK:
Change in
Yellow
River flows
Improvements
in early warning
Improvements
High in intra-regional
(and sectoral)
allocation of
water
Yellow
River
Comm.
Ningxia
Water
Resource
Dept.
High
Some reflections on Phase II
Challenges:
Uncertainty about the detail of CC remains
high – need for

research to reduce uncertainties
 flexibility
/ adaptive management
Climate
science
Time scales
beyond/ horizons
of stakeholders
Seasonal
forecasting
Decadal variability
(causes of droughts)
Other socio-economic changes more
significant
(population,
growth)
Improved
understanding
of economic
CO2-crop water
useland cover interactions
Modelling impacts can become very complex
Better
of extremes
(projections
andunderstanding
time consuming
(CO2 fertilisation,
model
and sensitivity,
impacts) etc.)
Some reflections on Phase II
Methods:
Consultation essential – need good
understanding of current sensitivity,
vulnerability and capacity to adapt
Impacts assessment – can be very
technical/time consuming – keep simple
Embed CC concerns within existing
management systems and processes
No blueprints for adaptation, need to invest
time on communication and awareness
raising, especially at provincial level
Some reflections on Phase II
Opportunities:
Recent extremes may highlight current sensitivity
and vulnerability (and effective responses)
Concern about CC may be quite high
Many existing options often already present – ‘no
regrets’ [CC often exacerbates existing
problems]
Entry points likely to be dealing with existing
‘adaptation gap’: better management of climate
hazards
Thank you