Download Baltadapt impact survey

Dear sir/madame
The enclosed Table summarizes aspects of climate change and some consequent impacts on
society and environment in the Baltic Sea region. A number of different aspects of climate
change are listed. Each of them is associated with an estimate of the uncertainty and also the
time until significant climate change can be detected. The estimate of the uncertainty pertains
to if there will be a change or not and it is not reflecting the actual amplitude of the changes.
If possible it is indicated whether the climate change aspect is relevant for the whole region or
only for parts of it. These estimates build upon results of climate model simulations that have
been presented in the scientific literature and/or assessments of climate change in the region
(for references see the Baltadapt reports and climate bulletins at www.baltadapt.eu ). The
climate change aspects listed in the table is not exhaustive but reflects those that are thought
to have significant impacts that are listed separately. It can be noted that some impacts may be
a result of different changes in the climate implying that impacts can be listed at several
places in the Table.
In order to make it possible to prioritize in the Strategy for Climate Adaptation for the Baltic
Sea Region we think it is important to consider the foreseen exposure to climate change (that
is indicated in the first two columns), the geographical coverage of expected impacts
(expressed as number of countries) – where we state that the relevance of impacts to be
focused on in a macro-regional strategy increase if many countries are affected.
Right now, we would much appreciate if you could fill in the last column in the
table below. You are therewith (for each of the listed impacts) kindly asked to
provide your own estimate of the importance to take action to adapt to specified
possible impacts
When answering, please have the Baltic Sea Regional Country you represent in mind:
Please indicate which country you represent: _______________________________________
Underline those of the following that are related to your professional work
Tourism
Biodiversity
Infrastructure
Agriculture
Fishing
Underline the one of the following that best describe your work:
Macro-regional organization
NGO
National ministry/authority
Private sector
Local authority
University/Research Institute
1
Impact Table
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Higher annual
air
temperatures***
Whole region
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate
change can
be detected in
various parts
of the region
0-20 years
(already
detectable)
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea where
the specified
possible
impacts are
relevant
(DE, DK, EE,
FI, PL, LT,
LV, RU, SE)
1. Prolongation of the
coastal tourism
2. Increased
attractiveness of
marine tourism
destinations
3. Potential for higher
crop yields
4. Possibilities to
introduce new
agricultural crops
5. Possible to take
advantage of
longer vegetation
periods for
agricultural
production
6. Changed
geographical
distribution may
lead to introduction
of new pests
affecting livestock
and plants
7. Changed growth
and geographical
distribution of
weeds
8. Changes in
nutrient loads, for
southern parts
2
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
probably increased
phosphorous
loads, but might be
decrease in
northern parts due
to, e.g., less
ground frost.
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Warmer
summers***
with more
heat waves**
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate change
can be
detected in
various parts of
the region
10-50 years
50-100 years
Whole region
Impact
Countries
bordering the
Baltic Sea
where the
specified
possible
impacts are
relevant
(DE, DK, EE,
FI, PL, LT,
LV, RU, SE)
9. More need for
cooling/ventilation
systems and
refrigeration in
ports (stored
goods)
10. More need to
ensure cooling of
buildings and
public traffic
systems
11. More health
problems
Increase of
high wind
speeds, storms
and high waves
in coastal and
marine areas*
This is highly
uncertain.
Models are not
agreeing neither
on direction of
change nor on
were changes
will occur. Some
models indicate
an increase in
extremes over
50-100 years
12. Rougher
conditions for
maritime traffic,
increased risks for
shipping accidents
13. Damage to coastal
protection and
coastal
infrastructure such
as constructions in
ports
14. More coastal
erosion, but also
sand accumulation
elsewhere
3
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
the Baltic Sea,
others don’t.
15. Challenge for ship
maneuvering and
loading processes
16. Damage to fishing
vessels and gears
and breaks in
fishing
17. Danger to the
crews of fishing
vessels
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Changes in the
frequency of
freeze and thaw
cycles***
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate change
can be
detected in
various parts of
the region
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea where
the
specified
possible
impacts are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI, PL,
LT, LV, RU,
SE)
10-50 years
Decrease in the
southern area
(no ice) and
increase in the
northern part of
the region
Increase of
extreme
precipitation**
Impact
18. Changed risk of
damage to port
infrastructure,
equipment and cargo
19. Change in the risk of
damage to port
infrastructure,
equipment and cargo
10-100 years
Whole region
20. More flooding
affecting e.g., urban
areas, agricultural land,
ports and tourism
21. Nutrient losses in times
of high rainfall
intensities/floods will
increase eutrophication
Increase of
river
discharge**
Increases largest
10-100 years
22. More flooding at river
mouths, rise of
groundwater level
might cause damage to
infrastructure
4
Importance
to take
action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1=insignifica
nt 2 = low
3= moderate
4= high
5=very high
in the north and
especially winter
constructions
Summer
discharge may
decrease,
especially in the
south
23. More downstream
sedimentation
24. Increased discharge is
a factor that probably
will increase nutrient
transport to the sea
25. Lack of riverine water
for irrigation and other
water consumption
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate change
can be
detected in
various parts of
the region
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea where
the
specified
possible
impacts
are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI,
PL, LT,
LV, RU,
SE)
More severe dry 10-100 years
spells in
summer*
Most likely in the
southern parts of
the region
26. Challenge to
safeguard summer
water supply
27. Drought damage to
vegetation used for
coastal protection
28. Increased risk of
forest fires
29. More attractive for
tourists (if not indirect
negative impacts
occur)
Rising sea level
due to global
0 -100 years
or more
30. More flooding of
coastal areas
5
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
sea level rise***
The northern
areas will not
see a strong
increase in sea
level in the
nearest century
due to
compensation by
land uplift. In the
south, the sea is
already rising.
Local temporal
sea level rise
due to local
wind induced
storm surges*
(already
detectable in
southern parts)
31. More coastal (beach)
erosion
32. Ecosystem losses in
coastal areas
33. Saline intrusion into
coastal groundwater
aquifers
34. Higher possibility for
ships to enter ports
without excavating the
water-ways
50-100 years
35. Damage of buildings,
and infrastructure
from storm surges
36. Power outrages,
impacts on
maneuvering and
loading of ships in
times of storm surges
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Warmer water
in the sea***
Whole region
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate
change can
be detected in
various parts
of the region
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea
where the
specified
possible
impacts
are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI,
PL, LT,
LV, RU,
SE)
0-50 years
(already
detectable)
37. Increased
cyanobacteria blooms
38. Ships cannot carry
the same load due to
decrease of buoyancy
39. Risk of higher survival
rates of invasive
species from warmer
seas (transported with
e.g. ballast water)
6
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
40. Risk of more
organisms attacking
maritime
constructions and
ships/boats
41. More days with
suitable temperatures
for swimming and
water sport
42. Higher health risks
connected to
swimming and water
sport (more
cyanoblooms, jelly
fish, germs and
amoebas in the water)
43. Fish production and
values of catches will
change
44. Prolonged warm
water season impede
fishing
45. Species such as
salmon, trout and
whitefish will
disappear
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Lower salinity
in the sea**
Whole region
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate
change can
be detected in
various parts
of the region
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea
where the
specified
possible
impacts
are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI,
PL, LT,
LV, RU,
SE)
10-100 years
46. Change of
composition of algae
belts under the shore
from brown/red algae
filamentous green
algae
7
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
47. Poor reproduction and
low abundance of
marine fish
48. Changes in food webs
inducing poor growth
rates of marine fish
49. More low-valued fish,
e.g., roach, three
spined stickleback
50. Decreased
abundance of species
dependent on marine
fish and benthic fauna
(e.g. guillemot,
common eider)
51. Decreased
distribution of key
marine species (such
as blue mussels)
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Reduced ice
cover in the sea
and along
coasts and a
shorter season
with sea ice***
In southern
areas there will
very seldom be
any ice in the
future while in for
instance in the
Bothnian Bay it
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate change
can be
detected in
various parts of
the region
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea where
the
specified
possible
impacts
are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI,
PL, LT,
LV, RU,
SE)
52. Facilitation of shipping
and less danger of ice
pressure
10-50 years
53. Risk of loss of
shipping due to
competition from a
potentially ice free
Barents sea
54. Reductions of sailing
distances and
shipping time
8
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1 = insignificant
2 = low
3= moderate
4 =high
5=very high
will still exist.
55. Less pressure on
harbors, coastal
protection and other
coastal infrastructure
56. Decreased possibility
for skating and icefishing
57. Commercial fishing is
facilitated
58. Changed population
of birds and decrease
of the ringed seal,
with secondary
ecosystem impacts
59. Increase of vegetation
in shallow water
60. Decreased risk for
anoxia in coastal
areas due to
improved mixing of
water
61. Accelerated
eutrophication due to
increased algae
production when icefree
9
Certainty that
change will
occur
* = low
** = moderate
*** = high
(when relevant
also
geographical
coverage of
change is given)
Lower oxygen
concentrations
in surface water
due to climate
change ***
Increase of
anoxic bottom
areas due to
climate
change***
Whole basin
Span of
expected time
horizon until
significant
climate
change can
be detected in
various parts
of the region
Impact
Countries
bordering
the Baltic
Sea
where the
specified
possible
impacts
are
relevant
(DE, DK,
EE, FI,
PL, LT,
LV, RU,
SE)
10-50 years
10-50 years
62. Loss of communities
of organism that live
at the sea bottom
63. Changes towards
species that are more
tolerant to low oxygen
concentrations
64. Decline of cod which
also leads to thin and
small herring and
sprat
65. Low value of fish
catches
66. Larger variations in
catches from marine
fish stocks due to
increased variations
in reproduction.
67. Decreased of fish
production due to
smaller water volume
suitable for marine
fish.
68. Accelerated
eutrophication,
increased cyano
blooms, harmful algae
and loss of
biodiversity due to
release of nutrients
10
Importance to
take action to
adapt to
specified
possible
impacts
1=
insignificant 2
= low
3=
moderate 4
=high 5=very
high
from anoxic
sediments
69. Loss of original flora
and fauna
70. Deterioration of
marine habitats and
recreational activities
due to turbid water
11