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Dear sir/madame The enclosed Table summarizes aspects of climate change and some consequent impacts on society and environment in the Baltic Sea region. A number of different aspects of climate change are listed. Each of them is associated with an estimate of the uncertainty and also the time until significant climate change can be detected. The estimate of the uncertainty pertains to if there will be a change or not and it is not reflecting the actual amplitude of the changes. If possible it is indicated whether the climate change aspect is relevant for the whole region or only for parts of it. These estimates build upon results of climate model simulations that have been presented in the scientific literature and/or assessments of climate change in the region (for references see the Baltadapt reports and climate bulletins at www.baltadapt.eu ). The climate change aspects listed in the table is not exhaustive but reflects those that are thought to have significant impacts that are listed separately. It can be noted that some impacts may be a result of different changes in the climate implying that impacts can be listed at several places in the Table. In order to make it possible to prioritize in the Strategy for Climate Adaptation for the Baltic Sea Region we think it is important to consider the foreseen exposure to climate change (that is indicated in the first two columns), the geographical coverage of expected impacts (expressed as number of countries) – where we state that the relevance of impacts to be focused on in a macro-regional strategy increase if many countries are affected. Right now, we would much appreciate if you could fill in the last column in the table below. You are therewith (for each of the listed impacts) kindly asked to provide your own estimate of the importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts When answering, please have the Baltic Sea Regional Country you represent in mind: Please indicate which country you represent: _______________________________________ Underline those of the following that are related to your professional work Tourism Biodiversity Infrastructure Agriculture Fishing Underline the one of the following that best describe your work: Macro-regional organization NGO National ministry/authority Private sector Local authority University/Research Institute 1 Impact Table Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Higher annual air temperatures*** Whole region Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region 0-20 years (already detectable) Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 1. Prolongation of the coastal tourism 2. Increased attractiveness of marine tourism destinations 3. Potential for higher crop yields 4. Possibilities to introduce new agricultural crops 5. Possible to take advantage of longer vegetation periods for agricultural production 6. Changed geographical distribution may lead to introduction of new pests affecting livestock and plants 7. Changed growth and geographical distribution of weeds 8. Changes in nutrient loads, for southern parts 2 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high probably increased phosphorous loads, but might be decrease in northern parts due to, e.g., less ground frost. Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Warmer summers*** with more heat waves** Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region 10-50 years 50-100 years Whole region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 9. More need for cooling/ventilation systems and refrigeration in ports (stored goods) 10. More need to ensure cooling of buildings and public traffic systems 11. More health problems Increase of high wind speeds, storms and high waves in coastal and marine areas* This is highly uncertain. Models are not agreeing neither on direction of change nor on were changes will occur. Some models indicate an increase in extremes over 50-100 years 12. Rougher conditions for maritime traffic, increased risks for shipping accidents 13. Damage to coastal protection and coastal infrastructure such as constructions in ports 14. More coastal erosion, but also sand accumulation elsewhere 3 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high the Baltic Sea, others don’t. 15. Challenge for ship maneuvering and loading processes 16. Damage to fishing vessels and gears and breaks in fishing 17. Danger to the crews of fishing vessels Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Changes in the frequency of freeze and thaw cycles*** Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 10-50 years Decrease in the southern area (no ice) and increase in the northern part of the region Increase of extreme precipitation** Impact 18. Changed risk of damage to port infrastructure, equipment and cargo 19. Change in the risk of damage to port infrastructure, equipment and cargo 10-100 years Whole region 20. More flooding affecting e.g., urban areas, agricultural land, ports and tourism 21. Nutrient losses in times of high rainfall intensities/floods will increase eutrophication Increase of river discharge** Increases largest 10-100 years 22. More flooding at river mouths, rise of groundwater level might cause damage to infrastructure 4 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1=insignifica nt 2 = low 3= moderate 4= high 5=very high in the north and especially winter constructions Summer discharge may decrease, especially in the south 23. More downstream sedimentation 24. Increased discharge is a factor that probably will increase nutrient transport to the sea 25. Lack of riverine water for irrigation and other water consumption Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) More severe dry 10-100 years spells in summer* Most likely in the southern parts of the region 26. Challenge to safeguard summer water supply 27. Drought damage to vegetation used for coastal protection 28. Increased risk of forest fires 29. More attractive for tourists (if not indirect negative impacts occur) Rising sea level due to global 0 -100 years or more 30. More flooding of coastal areas 5 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high sea level rise*** The northern areas will not see a strong increase in sea level in the nearest century due to compensation by land uplift. In the south, the sea is already rising. Local temporal sea level rise due to local wind induced storm surges* (already detectable in southern parts) 31. More coastal (beach) erosion 32. Ecosystem losses in coastal areas 33. Saline intrusion into coastal groundwater aquifers 34. Higher possibility for ships to enter ports without excavating the water-ways 50-100 years 35. Damage of buildings, and infrastructure from storm surges 36. Power outrages, impacts on maneuvering and loading of ships in times of storm surges Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Warmer water in the sea*** Whole region Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 0-50 years (already detectable) 37. Increased cyanobacteria blooms 38. Ships cannot carry the same load due to decrease of buoyancy 39. Risk of higher survival rates of invasive species from warmer seas (transported with e.g. ballast water) 6 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high 40. Risk of more organisms attacking maritime constructions and ships/boats 41. More days with suitable temperatures for swimming and water sport 42. Higher health risks connected to swimming and water sport (more cyanoblooms, jelly fish, germs and amoebas in the water) 43. Fish production and values of catches will change 44. Prolonged warm water season impede fishing 45. Species such as salmon, trout and whitefish will disappear Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Lower salinity in the sea** Whole region Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 10-100 years 46. Change of composition of algae belts under the shore from brown/red algae filamentous green algae 7 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high 47. Poor reproduction and low abundance of marine fish 48. Changes in food webs inducing poor growth rates of marine fish 49. More low-valued fish, e.g., roach, three spined stickleback 50. Decreased abundance of species dependent on marine fish and benthic fauna (e.g. guillemot, common eider) 51. Decreased distribution of key marine species (such as blue mussels) Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Reduced ice cover in the sea and along coasts and a shorter season with sea ice*** In southern areas there will very seldom be any ice in the future while in for instance in the Bothnian Bay it Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 52. Facilitation of shipping and less danger of ice pressure 10-50 years 53. Risk of loss of shipping due to competition from a potentially ice free Barents sea 54. Reductions of sailing distances and shipping time 8 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1 = insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high will still exist. 55. Less pressure on harbors, coastal protection and other coastal infrastructure 56. Decreased possibility for skating and icefishing 57. Commercial fishing is facilitated 58. Changed population of birds and decrease of the ringed seal, with secondary ecosystem impacts 59. Increase of vegetation in shallow water 60. Decreased risk for anoxia in coastal areas due to improved mixing of water 61. Accelerated eutrophication due to increased algae production when icefree 9 Certainty that change will occur * = low ** = moderate *** = high (when relevant also geographical coverage of change is given) Lower oxygen concentrations in surface water due to climate change *** Increase of anoxic bottom areas due to climate change*** Whole basin Span of expected time horizon until significant climate change can be detected in various parts of the region Impact Countries bordering the Baltic Sea where the specified possible impacts are relevant (DE, DK, EE, FI, PL, LT, LV, RU, SE) 10-50 years 10-50 years 62. Loss of communities of organism that live at the sea bottom 63. Changes towards species that are more tolerant to low oxygen concentrations 64. Decline of cod which also leads to thin and small herring and sprat 65. Low value of fish catches 66. Larger variations in catches from marine fish stocks due to increased variations in reproduction. 67. Decreased of fish production due to smaller water volume suitable for marine fish. 68. Accelerated eutrophication, increased cyano blooms, harmful algae and loss of biodiversity due to release of nutrients 10 Importance to take action to adapt to specified possible impacts 1= insignificant 2 = low 3= moderate 4 =high 5=very high from anoxic sediments 69. Loss of original flora and fauna 70. Deterioration of marine habitats and recreational activities due to turbid water 11