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Climate change impacts Glaciers Climate science • The Greenhouse effect: – Natural: • Water vapour • Carbon dioxide – Human produced: • Carbon dioxide • Methane etc. Human produced A Question What is the average temperature of the Earth? 1 metre above the surface and averaged over: • day and night, • all latitudes and longitudes. • all seasons (a) – 15 ° C (b) – 5 ° C A Question What is the average temperature of the Earth? 1 metre above the surface and averaged over: • day and night, • all latitudes and longitudes. • all seasons (a) – 15 ° C (b) – 5 ° C Absorption bands from the Sun from Earth UV Infra Red Water Absorptio n CO 2 Absorptio n Wavelength © Australian Bureau of Meteorology Absorption bands by the Sun from theIllumination Sun UV Infra Red Water Absorptio n CO 2 Absorptio n Wavelength © Australian Bureau of Meteorology Absorption bands from Earth Radiation from the Earth UV Infra Red (drawn on a different scale) Water Absorptio n CO 2 Wavelength Absorptio n © Australian Bureau of Meteorology The transmittance of water vapour Infra Red Visible The spectrum of sunlight UV Infra Red Emission spectra for the Sun and Earth Sun Diagrams from : Bob Crowder The Wonders of the Weather Melbourne, Bureau of Meteorology 2000: p 22-23. Earth Climate science • Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere: – Blackbody spectra – Sun and Earth (but note that Earth is less than a millionth of the Sun) • Also note that the IR absorbed from the Sun is of much shorter wavelength than that emitted by the Earth – UV Vis short IR – long IR Climate Models: Results What is the output of a climate model? Courtesy of Graeme Pearman Climate science • Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere: – Types of spectra: This is what we are interested in. Climate Real science • The effect of changes – Feedback and Forcing – H2O 95% should actually be 90-95% and is for clouds also. H2Oleaving 5-10% for – Can’t simply subtract GHGs. CO2 – H2O and CO2 absorb different parts of the IR radiation spectrum.CH4 Climate Real science • The effect of changes – Feedback and Forcing – Anthropogenic CO2 is NOT 3%! The spectrum of sunlight A family’s CO2 emissions 0.3 kg per km 0.3 kg per km per person 4000 1000 km per year km per year 1200 kg CO2/year 600 kg CO2/year 0.5 kg per kWh 7300 kWh per year 3650 kg CO2/year A family’s CO2 emissions 5450 kg of CO2 per year Over 5 tonnes! Observed changes Best estimates 0.6 0.2 o Anomaly ( C) 0.4 0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Expressing concern What can we do? • Sustainable options This is in sunny Germany! Radiative forcing concentrations Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policymakers) Figure SPM2 p16: Radiative forcing components Accessed at www.ipcc.ch (11/5/2007) Contributions to Climate Forcing Carbon Dioxide Greenhous e gases Methane Chlorofluorocarbons Nitrous Oxide Ozone Black Carbon Aerosols Reflective aerosols Cloud droplet changes Land cover changes Climate Forcing (W/m2) -1 0 +1 IPCC Predictions… Methane concentrations Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policymakers) Figure SPM1 p15: Atmospheric concentration of CO2 Accessed at www.ipcc.ch (11/5/2007) Carbon dioxide concentrations Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policymakers) Figure SPM1 p15: Atmospheric concentration of CO2 Accessed at www.ipcc.ch (11/5/2007) Science behind the model Reflected by clouds, atmosphere (~23%) Emitted IR radiation Natural greenhouse heating Greenhouse gases (2.5 Wm-2) Climate Models Input solar radiation (100 %) Absorbed by atmosphere (20%) ~60 Wm-2 Measured absorption (25%) ~80 Wm-2 ?? Reflected from surface (~8%) Absorbed by ground (~49%) Diagram from : Bob Crowder The Wonders of the Weather Melbourne, Bureau of Meteorology 2000: p 33. Climate models have greatly improved Modelled tropical cyclone IPCC Predictions from Climate Research Unit, East Anglia University 1 metre 2008 0.5 metres in 100 years ? IPCC SynRep Climate change impacts Australia Temperature trend Climate change impacts According to NASA and the climate scientists. Human induced changes • Is the climate changing? IPCC SynRep Carbon Cycle 760 increasing 760 at 3.2/year 6.4 60 90 1.4 500 2,000 300 3,000 1.7 1,000 39,000 Cause for concern • Sceptics, deniers, avoiders – “We are in a cooling phase” Yes but… Global CO2 Emissions http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm Billions of tonnes of Carbon 10 8 Total Global CO2 Emissions 6 Developed Countries 4 2 0 1990 Developing Countries 1995 2000 2005 2010 Figure 10.5 Figure 10.8 Figure 10.13 Figure 10.19 Figure 10.24 Figure 10.33 Figure 10.38 Box 10.2, Figure 2 Greenhouse effect • Most important greenhouse gas (ghg) is water vapour but its concentration is determined by temperature • Important long-lived ghgs are CO2, CH4, N2O • Absorption by ghgs seen in satellite infrared spectra • Absorption proportional to log(concentration), so doubling ghg concentration gives same heating ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.’ (IPCC 2007) Figure SPM.3 WGI Fig SPM.3 concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture.’ WGI Fig SPM.1 Figure SPM.1 Sea ice in Sept 2007 From Stroeve et al, GRL, 2007 Sept 2005 Observed and projected Australian rainfall Best estimate projected rainfall change for 2070 (from “Climate change in Australia”) Observed trend in annual rainfall 1970-2007 Past Projections sea level and of sea-level projections sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 based on global mean temperature projections of the IPCC TAR. From Rahmstorf, Science, 2007 From IPCC AR4 Stabilisation scenarios • 455 ppm CO2-eq in 2005, 379 ppm CO2 conc • I: CO2-eq stabilisation at 445-490 ppm, emissions peak in 2000-2015, global CO2 emissions -85% to -50% in 2050, warming of 2.0 to 2.4C above pi • II: CO2-eq stabilisation at 490-535 ppm, emissions peak in 2000-2020, global CO2 emissions -60% to -30% in 2050, warming of 2.4 to 2.8C above pi • Assuming equal per capita emissions, 50% global emission reduction in 2050 means ~90% emission reduction for US and Australia Likely range of climate sensitivity best estimate SyR Fig SPM.11 Australian greenhouse gas Dept of Climate Changeemissions “Tracking to the Kyoto target 2007” Australian emissions from energy use and transport have grown at more than 20% per decade. Australia is close to its Kyoto target only because of one-off reductions in land clearing. Sector % change in 2010 Stationary energy +56% Transport +42% Land use change -68% Total +8% in 2020 +64% +67 -68% +20% Other gases with greenhouse potential Source, IPCC 4AR, SPM, 2007 Relative contribution to warming Carbon dioxide Concentration <1700 2005 Change Radiative per year forcing Wm-2 275-285 379 ppmv 1.9 ppmv +1.66 ±0.17 Methane 715 1774 ppbv ~nil +0.48 ±0.05 Nitrous oxide 270 319 ppbv 0.83 ppbv +0.16 ±0.02 CFCs HCFCs Chlorocarbons NA Slightly negative +0.32 ±0.03 NA -0.05 ±0.10 +0.35 ±0.30 Ozone - stratosphere - Troposphere HFC, PFC, SF6 Total NA NA 10% +0.017 ±0.002 +2.63 ±0.26 Lifetime and global warming potentials of selected greenhouse gases Gas Symbol Lifetime Years Global Warming Potential 20-years 100-years Carbon dioxide CO2 ~80 1 1 Methane CH4 12 72 25 Nitrous oxide N2O 114 289 298 CFC-11 CCl3F 45 3800 4750 CFC-12 CCl2F2 100 8100 10900 HFC-23 CHF3 270 11700 14800 SF6 3200 23900 16300 Sulphur hexafluoride IPCC 4AR, Chapter 2, 2007 North Australian tropics annual sea surface temperature anomaly (from1961-1990) http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/timeseries.cgi Greenland Mass Loss – From Gravity Satellite IPCC Predictions on Global Global Mean Mean Temperature Temperature We do nothing We BEGIN to stop all emissions EVENTUALLY We BEGIN to stop all emissions NOW We stop all emissions NOW Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Summary for Policymakers) Figure SPM3 p17: Observed changes Accessed at www.ipcc.ch (11/5/2007) IPCC SynRep IPCC SynRep Feedback Increased Climate Forcing Increased Water Vapour Positive Climate Forcing Global Temperature Negative Decreased Climate Forcing Increased Cloud Cover More Evaporation Sponsor Address Content Aust. Acad. of Science http://www.science.org.au/nova/ Carbon accounting, climate and health, biodiversity, health, etc. Australian Bureau of Meteorology http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ Information about climate http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/reg/cli_chg/trendmaps.cgi Trends maps for Australia’s climat http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ Q and A, carbon accounting, energy http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ Q and A, carbon accounting, energy, etc http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/2003/pubs/inventory2003.pdf Emission inventory http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/education/tips.html What you can do Hadley Centre, British Meteorological Office http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/ Publications http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata.html Climate predictions http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html Global temperatures CRC G/H Accoun. http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/about%5Fgreenhouse/ Greenhosue, carbon accounting, impacts, etc. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research http://www.cmar.csiro.au/e-print/open/gh_faq.htm#gh1 Greenhouse questions and answers http://www.dar.csiro.au/capegrim/ghgasgraphs.html Greenhouse-gas levels, Cape Grim http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/projections2001.pdf Climate projections Environment Canada http://www.msc.ec.gc.ca/education/scienceofclimatechange/understanding/FAQ/F AQ-finalenglish.pdf Greenhouse questions and answers NOAA http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/anomalies/anomalies.html Global data Princeton University http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/Environ_0821a.pdf Wedges approach to future energy options Roy. Soc. London http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 Facts and fiction about climate change Concerned Scientists http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/global-warming-faq.html Frequently asked questions Vict. Government http://www.greenhouse.vic.gov.au/ Victorian greenhouse strategy, etc. United Nations http://unfccc.int/2860.php Framework Convention on Climate Chnage http://www.ipcc.ch/ Recent Fourth Assessment Report Australian Greenhouse Office Milankovitch Cycles 400 350 CO2 (ppmv) 300 250 200 150 100 Note: Time scales are reversed 50 0 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Thousands of years before the present 50 0 Figure prepared by Robert Rohde for Global Warming Art Project 1 metre per 100 years http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level Climate models In brief, each is • a complex, lengthy computer program, • incorporating all physical/chemical and biological processes that drive weather and climate, • reproducing the way in which climate behaves from day to day, and season to season. What determines the Earth’s surface temperature? For a detailed answer we need to know: • How much light reaches the Earth? • How much light reaches the Earth’s Surface? • How much energy is radiated from the Earth’s Surface? Climate models • These are just F = ma applied to moving fluids. • This is conservation of mass. • This governs the way heat flows between systems Dieting Program 86.0 85.0 84.0 83.0 Weight (kg) 82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0 78.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Days of Dieting 60 70 80 90 10 Science behind the water cycle