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Causes of Global Climate Change Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect" — warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space. Causes of Global Climate Change The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million in the last 150 years. • Water vapor. The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect. • Carbon dioxide (CO2) is released through natural processes such as respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. – Humans have increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change. Causes of Global Climate Change • Methane is produced both through natural sources and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as ruminant digestion and manure management associated with domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less abundant in the atmosphere. • Nitrous oxide. A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass burning. • Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds entirely of industrial origin used in a number of applications, but now largely regulated in production and release to the atmosphere by international agreement for their ability to contribute to destruction of the ozone layer. They are also greenhouse gases. Feedbacks can increase or decrease climate change When we think about how anthropogenic greenhouse gases will affect Earth, we must ask whether positive or negative feedbacks will predominate. Positive feedbacks often lead to an unstable situation in which small fluctuations in inputs lead to large effects. Negative feedbacks can have a dampening effect on changes. Your homework for this weekend is to research feedback cycles and how they influence temperatures on Earth. Global soils-permafrost etc. Plants response to increased CO2 Ocean CO2 concentrations The consequences of climate change According to the IPCC, the extent of climate change effects on individual regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change. U.S. regional effects (that are currently occurring) • Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise pose growing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning. • Northwest. Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are causing widespread tree die-off. The consequences of climate change • Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts. • Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes. • Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns. Future Climate Change Effects • Temperatures will continue to rise • Frost-free season (and growing season) will lengthen • Changes in precipitation patterns Figure 2.10: The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960. Increases in frost-free season length correspond to similar increases in growing season length. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICSNC). Future Climate Change Effects More droughts and heat waves "Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less," said Ben Cook, climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York City, and lead author of the study. "What these results are saying is we're going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years.“ Future Climate Change Effects Hurricanes will become stronger and more intense Tropical Cyclone Winston just after it made landfall on the north coast of Viti Levu Island, which is the largest and most populated island in the nation of Fiji. At the time, Winston was one of the most intense tropical cyclones observed in the South Pacific Ocean, and took an unusual track on the way to Fiji, completing a large counter-clockwise loop during the preceding week. • • http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/02 /20/fiji-strong-storm-van-dam.cnn http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/fe b/23/fijis-cyclone-winston-death-toll-risesas-news-comes-in-from-remote-areas Future Climate Change Effects • Sea level will rise 1-4 feet by 2100 Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. • Arctic likely to become ice-free "most of North America has been experiencing more unusually hot days and nights, fewer unusually cold days and nights and fewer frost days. Heavy downpours have become more frequent and intense. Droughts are becoming more severe in some regions". U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008) Is it hopeless? So even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases today, global warming and climate change will continue to affect future generations. YES, THERE IS HOPE!!! Mitigation and adaptation Mitigation – reducing climate change – involves reducing the flow of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere • by reducing sources of these gases (for example, the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat or transport) • or by enhancing the “sinks” that accumulate and store these gases (such as the oceans, forests and soil). • The goal of mitigation is to avoid dangerous human interference with the climate system, and “stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner” (from the 2014 report on Mitigation of Climate Change from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, page 4). Adaptation – adapting to life in a changing climate – involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. The goal is to reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change (like sea-level encroachment, more intense extreme weather events or food insecurity). It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or increased yields in some regions). https://www.ted.com/talks/vicki_arroyo_let_s_prepare_for_our_new_climate?language=en The climate is quickly changing. Scientists increasingly talk of a new period in the Earth's history, the "anthropocene", in which human impact on the planet has become dominant. Yet we remain unprepared to deal with the consequences: specifically, the disruption and cost. Lawyer Vicki Arroyo, the executive director of the Georgetown Climate Center, works on climate mitigation and adaptation policies as viable solutions to climate change’s inevitable disruptions to current practices. Using the best available science, Arroyo collaborates with US policymakers at both the state and federal level to develop "planetary management" strategies. https://www.ted.com/talks/alice_bows_larkin_we_re_too_late_to_prevent_climate_change_here_s_how_we_adapt?language=en • http://bigpicture.unfccc.int/files/video-1.mp4