Download World Civic Forum UN-DESA Expert Group Meeting on “Citizen

By
M. Adil Khan
Panel Member
Presentation Framework
 Definitional aspects of climate change
 Climate change and vulnerability
 Climate change and preparedness, adaptation and
mitigation (PAM): A framework for action
 Local governance and community engagement in
PAM: challenges and opportunities
 The way forward
The definition
The Fourth Assessment Report (2007) by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
states that
“[W]arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread
melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea
level”
The definition…contd.
 “Climate change” is often referred to as changes , caused by
human induced excessive Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, in
climatic averages and variability brought about by global
warming.
 Independently of global warming, climate changes occur on
seasonal, interannual (e.g. floods, droughts etc.); decadal (e.g.
tsunami)and multidecadal (e.g. earthquakes etc.) timescales.
 The difference between seasonal changes and “climate change”
is that while the former is gradual and quite predictable and thus
adaptations evolve over time, the latter are more drastic and
adaptations much harder.
Climate change types and
vulnerabilities
 Impacts of rising temperatures
Intensified and frequent floods, cyclones causing devastations to
properties, lives and means of livelihood
 Impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) and Natural Disasters
Coastal areas are most at risk to SLR. Over half the world’s
population as well as most of the fertile lands and urban
dwellings are located in coastal and delta regions . In these
regions a SLR of 30 cm could flood parts of the Yangzte Delta
where 30 million people live and work in agriculture (IFRC 1999);
SLR and increased natural disasters will destroy infrastructure
vital for economic development like ports, quays and sewer
systems, as well as shelter. It is estimated that with sea level rise
of 1 metre, Bangladesh and Egypt could lose 46 million houses.
Climate change and vulnerability
 On environment: rapid change in temperature, rise in sea level, change in
precipitation patterns, increased glacial and permafrost melting, and increased
intensity, frequency, and length of extreme weather conditions like floods,
droughts, and hurricanes.
 On human habitats: submersion of low lying areas, especially coastal areas ;
of many Island countries; increased salinity; desertification, reduced
agricultural and fisheries productivity and risk to existing agricultural practices
and marine lives; reduced access to drinking water; increase in respiratory,
intestinal diseases , malnutrition, threat to food security etc.
 Regional dimension of vulnerability: Both temperature increases and
precipitation changes vary from region to region, affecting higher and lower
latitudes differently. Due to these differential effects, developing countries are
likely to suffer more from the economic impacts of climate change, as well as
being least able to adapt to new climatic conditions.
Impact of vulnerability: regional
variations
Two broad sets of regions appear to be particularly
vulnerable to climate change:
 semi-arid tropical and sub-tropical regions (such as
north-eastern Brazil and much of Africa); and
 more humid, tropical and equatorial regions (such as
South East Asia and Central America).
 Africa is expected to be the most vulnerable continent,
suffering dramatic losses in agricultural productivity
and increases in hunger as a result.
Climate change and vulnerabilities at
national and community levels
Vulnerability
Definition

Some defines the phenomenon as the characteristics of a person or a group to anticipate,
cope, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard
 Others as the ability or not to modify the impacts of disaster and the means to cushion
risks.
National/Community Level impacts
 At a national level: here vulnerabilities manifest themselves , in poorer countries , in poor
capacity to respond due to lack of resources, technology and skills
 At the community level class, caste, gender, ethnicity, age, level of education and access to
resources etc. determine vulnerability
National level vulnerability
At national level
 Poorer nations are disproportionately more vulnerable to disasters and hence to the
effects of climate change .
 Firstly, the ability to adapt and cope with weather hazards depends on economic
resources, infrastructure, technology, and social safety nets. Developing countries often
do not have the resources.
 Secondly, for many countries, climate change is only one of the many environment
problems they confront. Many are already under pressure from population growth, rapid
urbanization and resource depletion, making them vulnerable to the further challenges
thrown up by climate change.
 Whilst developed countries pay 0.1% of GDP in losses, developing countries pay 2-3%, or
sometimes as much as 15% of GDP, as seen with hurricanes in the Caribbean.
 Developing countries also experience a greater loss of life; 90% of all deaths. For example,
the risk of drowning in Fiji due to dyke failure is 1 in 100 000 whereas in the Netherlands
it is 1 in 10 mill.
Community level vulnerability
At Community level,
 Poor communities are also more vulnerable to extreme weather events, like
those associated with climate change.
 Location, lack of services and infrastructure and poor building structures all
increase the vulnerability to flooding, storm surges and cyclonic wind and rain.
In Bangladesh, 15% of total land is subject to flooding and is disproportionately
occupied by people living in a marginal existence (IPCC 2001).
 Poorer settlements often lack the infrastructure of fire services, dykes, Early
Warning Systems (EWS), drains, etc which help cope with a disaster .
 The poor also do not have the resources to invest in disaster proof buildings
which increases the risk of them losing their shelter.
 Poorer communities also have limited means to cope with the losses and
damages inflicted by natural disasters.
Identifying the vulnerable
The vulnerable groups:
 rural smallholder agriculturalists
 fishing communities
 pastoralists
 wage labourers, particularly in remote/coastal agricultural
lands
 urban poor
 refugees and displaced
Climate Change Social Mapping (CCSM), identifying who the
vulnerable are, is key to determining measures relevant to
preparedness, adaptation and mitigation (PAM)
Preparedness, adaptation and mitigation (PAM):
A framework for action
The analytical framework for community level
action for PAM
 separating vulnerability assessments into two parts:
vulnerability of the nation and community
vulnerability
 developing indicators that represent the
diversification of income of poor households, allowing
identification of climate sensitive income sources
 developing indicators which represent the dependency
of the poor on natural resources
Preparedness, Adaptation and Mitigation
(PAM): A Framework for Community Action
Preparedness
 Predominantly Preparedness measures include but not limited to:
- Early warning
- Provision for shelter, health, water, food, credit etc
- Livelihood recovery measures etc.
 Preparedness requires interaction among various stakeholders
including the scientific community and decentralized decision making
and effective engagement of local government and the community.
 Diverse community characteristics and their varied expectations
indicate complex community engagement processes conducive to
preparedness.
 Leveraging funding from all sources – local national, private, donors
PAM: A framework for community
action…contd.
Adaptation
 Adaptation is defined as the capacity to on the one hand organize life sensitive to climate change
impacts, and also the ability of systems to adapt to new climatic conditions.

The ability to adapt is particularly related to socioeconomic characteristics and in developing
countries face the challenges of technological, financial and institutional constraints.
In agricultural sector, adaptation techniques could include :
-changes in crop types, crop location, irrigation, fertiliser use and infrastructure.etc.
In water resources /energy sector:
- integrated water resource management techniques ; shift to green energy, eco-friendly use
In health sector:
-responding to the predicted rise in health problems
All these require significant community education and motivation
PAM: A framework for community
action
Mitigation
 Climate change mitigation is the hardest, especially for
the developing countries
 Developed countries have the technology and
resources for mitigation, but commitments vary
 Requires concerted efforts at the global level
 World communities of civil societies must continue
their civic actions for greater mitigation measures
right across the board including technology transfer
from the rich to the poor nations
Way forward
 MDGs are at risk and re-strategizing MDGs within the contexts of
vulnerabilities arising out of climate change is important
 Social mapping is key to community consultation and risk assessment
 While each nation has to device its own PAM solutions relevant to its own local
conditions, there is also a need for a framework that links global with national
and national with local and vice versa
 Each nation also has to develop strategies that mitigate conflicting/competing
demands of various groups in an accountable and transparent way
 There should also be close consultation with the scientific community
 In this framework the community should continue to play an important role
not only in receiving assistance from the top, but in participating in every
aspect of decision-making that shape their present and sustain their future
Something to think about
?
Trevor Blackwell and Jeremy Searbook in their book, Revolt Against Change:
Towards a Conserving Radicalism (1993), states:
“Popular traditions of frugality were not ideologies, they
were living practices. They were the way ordinary
women and men carried out their daily lives and taught
their children to follow them. That all this should have
been discarded overnight was a grievous loss, and
grievously we are paying for it. To want to re-evaluate
and revalue these traditions has nothing to do with a
desire to return, to inflict a life of penny pinching
misery and privation upon people. It is rather a wish to
restore a sense of balance against the celebration of
waste, a sense of judgement against the glorification of
the superfluous”.
The question
 Can we really do anything meaningful in ‘climate
change’, ‘sustainable development’ etc. if we continue
to pursue the ideology of the “glorification of the
superfluous” as the pathway to development?
 Or has the time come for a new paradigm of
development that rejects the ‘celebration of waste’ and
returns to popular “traditions of frugality”?
“For the good of many, for the happiness of many, out of
compassion for the world”.
Lord Buddha