Download Hauger Climate security

J. Scott Hauger, Ph.D.,
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
Pacific Operational Science & Technology Conference
Honolulu, HI
March 5, 2013
“Climate change has the potential for
significant impacts on all three of the basic
elements important to national and
international security – defense, diplomacy,
and economics…. The most immediate effects
with the highest potential for instability will
come from the most vulnerable regions of the
world where the United States obtains vital
fuel and strategic mineral imports and
combats terrorism.”
“Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National
& International Security, “U.S. Defense Science Board.
Oct 2011, p. xiii.
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. Science & Technology for Climate Related
Security
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. Science & Technology for Climate Related
Security
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Global warming is an observed fact.
Source: U.S. NASA. March 9, 2012. Available at:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
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The greenhouse effect
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Measured atmospheric CO2
Source: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Future scenarios
Source: U.S Environmental Protection Agency
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. Science & Technology for Climate Related
Security
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Climate change and security
Climate Effects
Human Impacts
State Impacts
•Rising sea levels
•Freshwater
•Conflict over:
•Tropical
cyclones
•Food production
•More floods
•Disease
•More droughts
•Migration
•Riverine erosion
•Infrastructure
•Blame
•Frame
•Resources
•Migration
•Maritime
boundaries
•Increased stress on
weak governments
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. U.S. policy for science & climate change.
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Drought risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Flood risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Cyclone risk indicators, 2030-2040
Based on current global climate models and IPCC A1B emissions scenario.
Source: CARE International Climate Change Information Centre
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Sea level risks
Source: UNEP
Migration
Image source: Lisa Friedman. “Bangladesh: Where the Climate Exodus Begins”
“In 2010, more than 30 million people in Asia and the Pacific were displaced
by environmental disasters such as storms and floods... Climate change is
expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, bringing
about significant changes in migration patterns. This will pose a major threat
to the growth and security of Asia and the Pacific unless measures are taken
soon. ” -- Asian Development Bank. 15 Sep, 2011
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U.S. security policy QDR 2010
“…climate change could have
significant geopolitical impacts around the
world, contributing to poverty, environmental
degradation, and the further weakening of
fragile governments. Climate change will
contribute to food and water scarcity, will
increase the spread of disease, and may spur
or exacerbate mass migration…. In some
nations, the military is the only institution
with the capacity to respond to a large-scale
natural disaster. Proactive engagement with
these countries can help build their capability
to respond to such events.”
Source: U.S. DoD. 2010.
Quadrennial Defense
Review. (February), pp. 845. Available at:
http://www.defense.gov/Q
DR/
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Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. Science & Technology for Climate Related
Security
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Mission:
To build a knowledge base
that informs human
responses to climate and
global change through
coordinated and integrated
federal programs of research,
education, communication,
and decision support
USGCRP Strategic Plan 2012- 2021
• Shift from climate change perspective to one
of climate-related global changes.
• Better integrate social and ecological sciences
to inform decisions.
• Build an integrated observational system that
connects observations of the physical
environment with social and ecological
observations.
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Defense Science Board
report (Oct 2011)
U.S. DoD needs:
• Comprehensive climate information system to
support operational assessments.
• To develop local expertise in civil engineering,
hydrology, energy, agriculture, land use &
Infrastructure planning so developing nations can
benefit from information.
• Better processes to coordinate & leverage U.S.
agency efforts.
• Better insights into activities of other countries &
international organizations.
DSB Findings: Role for DoD
• Build regional capabilities and alliances to
create climate change resilience.
• Prepare to respond to natural disasters.
• Assist foreign militaries to understand climate
change effects on force structure,
installations, and security situation.
• Build capacity for mitigation & adaptation.
DSB Findings: Role for COCOMs
• Identify regional early warning indicators.
• Include energy, food, water & disaster risk
reductions strategies in theater campaign plan.
• Conduct regional / local impact assessments.
• Include as Tier 1 objective, enhancing host nation
military and civil readiness groups to respond to
natural disasters.
• Integrate climate-change related aspects into
exercises.
National Research
Council Findings
• Expect increasingly more serious climate
surprises in the coming decade.
• It is essential for the intelligence community
to understand adaptation and changes to
vulnerability to climate events.
• Prudent to expect some climate events that
exceed the capacity of affected societies to
manage.
NRC Recommendations
• Research to improve ability to quantify
likelihoods of climate events.
• Intelligence community should provide
appropriate research support.
• Research needed to understand when climate
disasters do/don’t lead to security-relevant
outcomes.
NRC Recommendations (2)
• Immediately begin a WoG strategy for
monitoring threats connected to climate
change.
• “Stress test” countries, regions & global
systems for ability to manage disruptive
climate events.
– Focus on critical watershed areas in South Asia,
Middle East & Africa
Outline
1. Science of climate change.
2. Climate change and security.
3. Security dimensions of climate change in the
Asia-Pacific Region.
4. Science & Technology for Climate Related
Security
5. Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities
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Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities (1)
• Anticipate climate-related surprises.
• Need for a DoD / U.S. / regional observation
system for relating climate change to security
threats.
• Corresponding need for methodologies that
integrate social & ecological sciences for threat
characterization & prediction
• Impact assessments & “Stress tests” using new
data and knowledge to develop an ability to
manage disruptive climate events.
Conclusion: Challenges & Opportunities (2)
• Develop local expertise in Asia Pacific region in
civil engineering, hydrology, energy,
agriculture, land use & infrastructure
planning so developing nations can benefit.
• Develop processes to coordinate & leverage
U.S. agency efforts.
• Regional security structure development for
information sharing, planning and response.
QUESTIONS?
Image source:
Risk
Management
Monitor
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