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Climate Change: General Introduction (Basic Introduction for Students with Some Science Knowledge) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) [email protected] http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood February 4, 2015 Some Basic References • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers – IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers • Spencer Weart: The Discovery of Global Warming • Carbon dioxide greenhouse effect: http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm • Simple climate models http://www.aip.org/history/climate/simple.htm • Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine • Rood – Rood Climate Change Class • Reference list from course – Rood Blog Data Base Naomi Oreskes, Why Global Warming Scientists are Not Wrong Climate Change in a Nutshell • • • • • • How and what do we know? Increase of carbon dioxide Some predictions Some observations (and attribution) How do we organize our responses? Reading about 4 degrees of warming – New et al. 2010, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. Starting point: Scientific foundation • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on budgets of energy, mass, and momentum. (Conservation principles) • The scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate is based on an enormous and diverse number of observations. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we observe that with virtual certainty – The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface has increased due to the human-caused addition of gases into the atmosphere that hold heat close to the surface. Starting point: A fundamental conclusion • Based on the scientific foundation of our understanding of the Earth’s climate, we predict with virtual certainty – The average global temperature of the Earth’s surface will continue to rise because of the continued increase of human-caused addition into the atmosphere of gases that hold heat close to the surface. – Historically stable masses of ice on land will melt. – Sea level will rise. – The weather will change. Scientific Approach • Climate science is observationally based • Climate change is computational science – Relies on models Models are an Important Part of Climate Science What is a Model? • Model – A work or construction used in testing or perfecting a final product. – A schematic description of a system, theory, or phenomenon that accounts for its known or inferred properties and may be used for further studies of its characteristics. • Numerical Experimentation – Given what we know, can we predict what will happen, and verify that what we predicted would happen, happened? Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONS THEORY PREDICTION Past Present Future Time Understanding Processes Evaluation, Verification Predictions Projections Summary Points: Science Correlated Observations CO2 and Temperature Observed to be strongly related on long time scales (> 100 years) CO2 and Temperature not Observed to be strongly related on short time scales (< 10 years) Land Use / Land Change Other Greenhouse Gases Aerosols Internal Variability Theory / Empirical Evidence CO2 and Water Vapor Hold Heat Near Surface Theory / Conservation Principle Mass and Energy Budgets Concept of “Forcing” Prediction Earth Will Warm Validation Evaluation Consequences Observations CO2 is Increasing due to Burning Fossil Fuels Feedbacks Air Quality “Abrupt” Climate Change Conservation principle: Energy Energy from the Sun Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy. Earth at a certain temperature, T Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • We reach a new equilibrium T 0 H - T t Production Loss H T The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • We reach a new equilibrium T 0 H - T t Production Loss H T Changes in orbit or solar energy changes this Conservation principle: Energy Energy from the Sun Add some detail: Earth at a certain temperature, T Insulating Blanket Surface The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy • We reach a new equilibrium T 0 H - T t Production Loss H Changing a greenhouse gas T changes this Some basics Observed Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas Data and more information The yearly cycle of CO2 Presentation of some results • These are drawn from the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I deliberately mix graphs from reports in 2001, 2007, and 2013. The messages from these reports are quite similar, which is a measure of – Consistent measure – Stable scientific understanding IPCC (2007) projections for the next 100 years. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100 2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001 Observed Temperature Anomaly in 2005 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ See Also: Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006 IPCC 2013: Observed Temperature What does this mean for design and engineering? Rood: What would happen if we stopped emitting now? IPCC 2007: The last ~100 years Correlated behavior of different parameters Fig. 2.5. (State of Climate 2009) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ . Quick Summary: IPCC(2013) Length of Growing Season From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University Summary In Progress: Observations • Observations of climate change (global warming) – Average surface temperature of planet is increasing – Ice is melting • Glaciers • Ice sheets – Sea level is rising • Ocean is warming up • From the melting ice – Weather is changing • Coherent and convergent evidence Summary In Progress: Projections • Observations are consistent model projections – Past century – Evolving • Model projections – Planet will warm – Ice will melt – Sea level will rise – Weather will change Summary In Progress: Uncertainty • Identified major categories of uncertainty – Scenario – future emissions – Model – deficiencies in simulation capability – Observational – quality of observations, inability to completely observe – Dynamic variability – internal variability due to transfer of energy between components of a complex system Summary in Progress: Attribution • Have suggested several aspects of extent and attribution of warming to greenhouse gases – Spatial distribution of warming – Decrease of temperature in the stratosphere – Changes in growing season – Changes in seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide – Warming in the ocean – …. What parameters/events do we care about? • Temperature • Water – Precipitation – Evaporation – Humidity • Droughts • Floods • Extreme Weather • Air Composition – Air quality – Aerosols – Carbon dioxide • Winds • Clouds / Sunlight The impact of climate change is Water for Ecosystems Water for People Water for Energy Water for Physical Climate Science, Mitigation, Adaptation Framework It’s not an either / or argument. Adaptation is responding to changes that might occur from added CO2 Mitigation is controlling the amount of CO2 we put in the atmosphere. Stabilization / Total burden of Greenhouse Gases • Have this notion of controlling emissions to stabilize the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere at some value. – That is, there was some value of emissions that would match the loss of CO2 into the plants, soil and oceans. – However, CO2 is exchanged between these reservoirs, and it takes a very long time for CO2 amounts to decline. • We know that the CO2 that we emit will be with us essentially forever. Therefore, it is the total amount that we emit, rather than controlling emissions. – Arguably, we get to emit 1 trillion tons before climate change is “dangerous” – “Dangerous” = 2 degrees C average surface warming Some Points • Science-based conclusions – The surface of the Earth has warmed and this warming is consistent with increasing greenhouse gases. CO2 is most important. – The Earth will continue to warm. – The concept of “stabilization” of CO2 is challenged by the consideration of oceanland-atmosphere time scales • Accumulated carbon dioxide is important. • 1 trillion tons 440 ppm Some Points • Analysis and Opinion – Probability of stabilizing at less than 440, 560 … ppm is very small. • If we decide to stabilize at 350, 440, then we need to figure out how to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Some Points • Analysis and Opinion – We need to start to plan for a world that is on average, warmer than the 2 degrees C that we have deemed as the threshold of “dangerous”. – We have an enormous opportunity provided by predictions of climate change. We have the choice of whether or not to take advantage of this opportunity on personal, professional, local, national, and international levels. • The world 4 degrees warmer: January 13, 2011 issue of The Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Some Other References for the Interested • Rood – Rood Blog “Just Temperature” – Rood Blog: Arctic Oscillation and Cold Times in Eastern North America – Rood Blog: Trillion Tons of Carbon Dioxide – Rood Blog: Warming Hiatus • Lemos and Rood (2010) • Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming