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Climate Change and India
Sumana Bhattacharya
NATCOM PMC
Winrock International India
International Workshop on Future International Climate Policy
August 9, 2006, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
Climate Change and India
The setting
Climate change Actions
Institutional Arrangement
Major Climate Change Activities
Adaptation and Development
The Setting
Occupies 2.4% (3.28 million sq. km of the worlds land
area but support 16.2% (more than 1 billion) of the
worlds human population
Diverse physiographic features - Himalayas, Coastal
areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and
islands
Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon
Endowed with varied climate, biodiversity and
ecological regions (Forest Cover about 675.5
thousand sq km
2/3 rd population dependent on climate sensitive
sectors
Poverty ratio at national poverty line ~ 28.6 % of total
population
Agricultural land ~ 60.8% of total land area
Diverse natural conditions, high
population, limited and degraded natural
resources
CO2 emissions ~ 1. 2 t per capita
Energy use~ 508.8 kg of oil equivalent per capita
GDP (current US$) ~ 691.2 billion
GDP growth : 7% annually (average)
Climate Change Action
Air pollution Act
Act 1981, amended 1987
Environmental protection Act
1986, amended 1991
Forest Conservation Act
1980, amended 1988
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
NATCOM-1 submitted to UNFCCC
1999
2000
2001
2002
Establishment of Ozone Cell in MoEF
India ratifies UNFCCC
India ratifies Vienna Convention
India acceded to Montreal
Protocol
Establishment of Ministry of Non
Conventional Energy Sources
Energy
Conservation Act
2003
2004
2005
Electricity Act
Ratifies
Kyoto
Protocol
Institutional structure for climate
change action in India
Ministry of Environment & Forests
DNA
Joint Secretary, Climate
Change Focal Point
Advisor, MoEF
Joint Secretary,
GEF Focal Point
CDM
Climate change
activities and
policy measures
Other
communications
and submissions
to the UNFCCC
India’s National
Communication to
the UNFCCC
Network of
institutes
Implementing
Agency for the
GEF
Project proponent
for funding through
GEF
Clean Development Mechanism
DNA
2004
Secretary, MoEF
Ministries of:
Foreign Affairs
Finance
Industrial Policy & Promotion
Non-Conventional Energy Sources
Power
Planning Commission and
Environment & Forests
Registered Projects in UNFCCC - 256
Country wise CERs
(total :72.72 million tCO2/yr)
Total projects approved by DNA
Indutrial
proceesses
7%
Fuel Switching
7%
Solid wate
1%
Energy efficiency
30%
Energy efficiency (28)
Renewable energy
55%
Renewable energy (51)
Fuel Switching (6)
Indutrial proceesses (6)
Solid wate (1)
Institutional Arrangement - NATCOM
Ministry of Environment and Forests
Chair : Secretary, MoEF
National Steering Committee
Technical Assessment Committee
Inventory
V&A
Uncertainty
Reduction
GHG Emissions from Sources and Removals
by Sinks - India 1994
Relative GHG Emissions
Gas by Gas emission distribution
Sectoral Distribution of GHG emissions
Emissions in terms of CO2 equivalent
Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation
• Climate projection scenarios (RCM, HadCM2)
• National Impact Assessment Studies on:
- Water Resources
- Agriculture
- Forests & other Natural Ecosystems
- Coastal Zones
- Human health
- Energy and Infrastructure
www.natcomindia.org
Climate Projections
Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s
Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon months
No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days
Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day
Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is
projected
Key Vulnerable River Basins
Acute physical water scarce
conditions
Constant water scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular water
stressed conditions
Rare water shortages
Agriculture
•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different
parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air
temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75
ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06
ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other
than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland
area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.
•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and
25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Coastal Zones
•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of
tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense
events are projected during the post-monsoon period
•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in
coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas,
loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the
Indian Coast due to SLR
Simulated
Forestry
77% and 68% of the forested grids in India are
likely to experience shift in forest types
Indications show a shift towards wetter forest
types in the northeastern region and drier forest
types in the northwestern region in the absence
of human influence.
Projected
Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and
climate warming could also result in a 50 to 70%
increase under the B2 scenario
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal
Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Tundra
Health
Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at
hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone
The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to
widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern
states.
Endemic
regions of
malaria
Regions likely
to be affected
by malaria in
2050s
Features / Limitations of Impact Assessments Made so Far
• Impact based
• Impact assessment made using climate change
projections based on a single model outputs (RCM Had
RM2) and single scenario
• Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at
regional level
• Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at
regional level (forests, crop production, water)
• Limited data availability
Rajasthan
Assam
Karnataka
UP
AP
Bihar
Gujarat
Orissa
Chattisgarh
Vulnerability
indicators
Floods
Scenariobased
modelling
Droughts
Community
interaction
Studies on coping measures
•Natcom
coastal/disasters
•APN glaciers
•Ford SLR
• APN
agr/climate
info
•OFDA
floods/droughts
• WB
agr/water
•CIDA
agr
•SIDA
Agri
•Natcom
agr/wat/for/health
•Indo-UK agr/wat/ • APN
for/health/coastal agr/ricewheat
•WB agr
Single
stress –
climate
change
Climate
variability
and change
Multiple
stresses
Adaptation Analysis- so far
• Preliminary assessments made for different sectors;
including assessment of current policies and
programmes in relation to vulnerability
• Most policies, measures & technologies also address
current stresses to some extent and also relevant for
adaptation to climate change (water, forest, agriculture,
etc.)
• Still, incremental mechanisms needed to address climate
change impacts
• Further analysis needed to identify adaptation
technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs for
adaptation at local levels
Immediate task in Preparation for Adaptation to Climate Change
• Improve existing climate scenario projections and the sectoral
impact assessments
• Develop socio economic scenarios in conjunction with India’s
developmental path
• Carry out studies at identified climatically hotspot areas
• Institute an integrated approach to understand the inter-sectoral
linkages affecting the physical and socio economic vulnerabilities
at local levels
• Carry out analysis to formulate adaptation frameworks at these
scales which can provide inputs for the development of a national
adaptation plan for combating the adverse effects of climate
change.
Steps Facilitating Adaptation at National and Local Level
• Strengthen policies for food security, forests, manage disasters
and infrastructure development
• Appropriate allocation of funds for National Development
Programme Implementation
• Step up observation systems & technology development and
dissemination
• Strengthen Institutional mechanisms as instruments of
adaptation at local level
• Arrangement of funds for adaptation
• Mainstream climate change concerns and hence adaptation in
the planning process
• Consider Development as one of the pathways for adaptation
India’s Development Goals
1.
Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by 2007 and by 15
percentage points by 2012
2.
Providing gainful and high-quality employment to the labor force
3.
All children in school by 2003; all children to complete 5 years of
schooling by 2007
4.
Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at least 50 % by
2007
5.
Raising the literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan
6.
Reducing the decadal rate of population growth between 2001-2011 to
16.2%
The goals in blue are more ambitious than corresponding MDGs
India’s Developmental Goals…
7.
Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000 live births
by 2007 and to 28 by 2012
8.
Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per 1000 live
births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012
9.
Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 % by 2007 and 33 % by
2007
10. All villages to have sustained access to potable drinking water by
2007
11. Electricity for all by 2012
12. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other notified
stretches by 2012
India Needs More Energy for its
Development
• The Indian Government
has targeted an 8% GDP
growth rate per annum for
2002–07 to achieve its
development priorities
• In order to achieve these
developmental aspirations,
substantial additional
energy consumption will
be necessary and coal,
being the abundant
domestic energy resource,
would continue to play a
dominant role.
Climate Friendly Initiative
Wide-ranging reforms such as:
Policies adopted by India for sustainable development, such as
– Energy and Power sector reforms
• energy efficiency
• increasing penetration of cleaner fuels
• thrust for renewable energy technologies
Introduction of landmark environmental measures that have targeted
- cleansing of rivers,
- enhanced forestation,
- installed significant capacity of hydro and renewable energy
technologies and
- introduced clean coal technologies
- cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel
have all accelerated the economic growth and lowered the barriers to
efficiency and reduced energy intensity
Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind
India’s Sustainable Development
Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP)
0.29
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.19
0.17
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0.15
1971
TPES (kgoe)/GDP ($2000 PPP)
0.31