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Wages set to fall unless warming is tackled | News | Eco­Business | Asia Pacific
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Wage et to fall unle warming i tackled
Reearcher a the economic cot of failing to take action on climate change will e much
greater than previoul thought – with average gloal income cut  almot a quarter.
Reearcher have etalihed the impact of climate change on economic productivit - rich or poor countrie, agricultural
and non-agricultural output. Image: hankar  via Flickr, CC Y-NC-ND 2.0
Climate New Network
Monda 26 Octoer 2015
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ven the tronget econom can overheat. A oon a the average annual temperature goe
eond 13°C or 55°F, productivit tart to drop. And, unexpectedl, new reearch in the U
how that the economic climate and the meteorological climate are in tep.
The nding reveal a higher-than-expected gloal economic cot of climate change – and
that even wealth countrie will ee an economic downturn  2100 unle action i taken
to mitigate gloal warming.
CA R ON & C LIMAT
The reearch i the reult of collaoration
etween Marhall urke, aitant profeor of arth
tem cience at California’ tanford Univerit, and the
Univerit of California erkele’ olomon Hiang,
aociate profeor of pulic polic, and dward Miguel,
Oxfam Profeor in nvironmental and Reource
conomic.
ig emiꚡ鰦er hi潣
urden to poorer
nation
 Read now
The report in Nature journal that the analed the
economic performance of 166 countrie over a 50-ear
period etween 1960 and 2010, and matched each
countr’ output in ear of normal temperature to thoe
of unuuall hot or unuuall cold pell.
Unequivocal concluion
“We how that overall economic productivit i nonlinear in temperature for all countrie,
with productivit peaking at an annual average temperature of 13.6°C and declining
trongl at higher temperature,” the report.
Their unequivocal concluion are the ame for rich countrie and for poor countrie, and
the are true for agricultural and non- agricultural output.
“Thee reult provide the rt evidence that economic activit in all region i coupled to
the gloal climate, and etalih a new empirical foundation for modelling economic lo in
repone to climate change, with important implication.”
The then warn that if the future i anthing like the pat, then unmitigated gloal warming
i expected to rehape the gloal econom  reducing average gloal income  23 per
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cent  2100.
The ame proce will alo widen gloal inequalit. Around threequarter of all the nation
urveed would e poorer than the would have een without climate change.
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The reearch, like all economic forecat on a gloal cale, i liale to provoke contention,
a it look at one ver ig, crude meaure and dicount all the individual political and
international troule that might eet an particular nation at an time.
It i alo clearl timed to concentrate governmental mind on the forthcoming UN ummit
in Pari to decide upon the gloal repone to climate change − which i the conequence
of oaring foil fuel comution, riing level of atmopheric greenhoue gae, and the
predicted and potentiall catatrophic increae in gloal annual average temperature.
oth Dr urke and Profeor Hiang have a record of thinking on a gloal cale. The have
propoed a link etween average climate and civil con ict, and have done o at leat
twice. Now the have done the ame for climate and da-to-da mone-making.
There have een eparate tudie of individual national repone to climate. For example,
the Autralian are till counting the cot of record temperature in the ummer of 2013-14.
“Man ver careful tudie how clearl that high temperature are ad for thing like
agriculture and laour productivit, even in rich countrie,” Dr urke a.
“While thee relationhip howed up again and again in the micro data – for example,
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when looking at agricultural eld or manufacturing plant – the were not howing up in
the exiting macro-level tudie, and we wanted to undertand wh.”
Hill-haped link
o the three author decided to trut the data and look intead at the technique of
anali. The found a curve of hill-haped link etween temperature and productivit,
with a 13°C peak for the ear when economie did et.
“The data tell u that there are particular temperature where we human are reall good at
producing tu ,” Dr urke a. “In countrie that are normall quite cold – motl wealth
northern countrie – higher temperature are aociated with fater economic growth, ut
onl to a point. After that point, growth decline rapidl.”
The implication i that neither the wealthiet nation nor the pooret can a ord to let
climate change happen a the reultant economic cot will e much greater than the cot of
national or international action to limit the rie in the gloal thermometer.
“Man other reearcher have projected economic impact under future climate change,”
Profeor Hiang a. “ut we feel our reult improve our ailit to anticipate how
ocietie in coming decade might repond to warming temperature.”
Dr urke add: “The ene t of action are much greater than we thought, ecaue the cot
of inaction are much greater than we thought.” hare thi tor
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Topic
Gloal
Region
jo inequalit reearch climate econom
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