Download PPT 5.1MB - Climate Science Program

Climate Change and Implications for
Midwest Agriculture
Eugene S. Takle and Christopher J. Anderson
Department of Agronomy
Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
Ames, IA 50011
[email protected]
Regional Climate Modeling to Improve Climate Variability and
Change Projections at the Local Scale
27th Conference on Hydrology
93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting
Overview
Coupling RCMs to impacts models
Model coupling and uncertainty (streamflow example)
Impacts examples: Lessons learned
NARCCAP data
Food Security
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)
Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*
Subsurface tile drainage
Wind energy
Solar energy
Soil carbon
Extreme precipitation
Extreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)
Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past
climate)
Building energy use (changing national standards)*
Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)
Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact
models)
Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
Characterizing and Quantifying Uncertainty
Source of
Climate Data
Models
Observed climate
(1979-88)
SWAT
Output
Comparison
Objective
SWAT 1
Observed
stream flow
(1979-88)
Evaluate
SWAT error
Evaluate
RCM error
Reanalyzed (observed)
climate
(1979-88)
RCM
SWAT
SWAT 2
Observed
stream flow
(1979-88)
GCM
Contemporary climate
(~1990-1999)
RCM
SWAT
SWAT 3
Observed
stream flow
(1979-88)
Evaluate
GCM error
GCM
Contemporary climate
(~1990-1999)
RCM
SWAT
SWAT 3
SWAT 2
Evaluate
GCM -RCM
coupling error
GCM
Future scenario climate
(~2040-2049)
RCM
SWAT
SWAT 4
SWAT 3
Evaluate
Climate Change
Streamflow vs. Precipitation
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)
Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*
Subsurface tile drainage
Wind energy
Solar energy
Soil carbon
Extreme precipitation
Extreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)
Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past
climate)
Building energy use (changing national standards)*
Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)
Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact
models)
Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
Climate Change Impact on Building Energy
Use
Atlanta, Georgia
90.0
Energy Change (%)
Energy Change (%)
Mason City, Iowa
Medium Office Energy Change
40.0
Medium Office Energy Change
40.0
-10.0
-10.0
-60.0
-60.0
Total
Heating
Total
Cooling
90.0
Energy Change (%)
Energy Change (%)
90.0
Secondary School Energy Change
40.0
-10.0
Heating
Cooling
90.0
Secondary School Energy Change
40.0
-10.0
-60.0
-60.0
Total
Heating
Cooling
Total
Heating
Cooling
Impacts Examples: (Lessons Learned)
Streamflow (uncertainty, thresholds)*
Subsurface tile drainage
Wind energy
Solar energy
Soil carbon
Extreme precipitation
Extreme wind speeds (wind speed declines, role in ET)
Roadway design (time series scenarios, appropriate use of past
climate)
Building energy use (changing national standards)*
Animal agriculture (dairy production, breeding success)
Mycotoxin (sequence of specific climate impacts; multiple impact
models)
Crop yield (timing and amount of precipitation)*
2011
2012
Iowa State-Wide Average
Total Annual State-Wide Average Precipitation
Total Average Precipitation (inches)
50.0
45.0
Totals above 40”
1 year
5 years
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
3 years
7 years
20.0
R² = 0.0108
Totals below 25”
15.0
2012
10.0
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
Year
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Des Moines, IA Airport Data
Number of Days with a Maximum Temperature Greater Than
or Equal to 100°F
14
1983: 13
12
11 days in 2012
1988: 10
Number of Days
10
8
1974: 7
1977: 8
6 days ≥ 100oF in 23 years
6
4
2
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
Harvest Area (2000) for Maize and Soybeans
Soybeans
Maize
NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation
NARCCAP Change in JJA Precipitation
Changes in Precipitation Simulated by Four GCM Future Scenario
Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson,
R Beachy, GC Nelson, D
Mason-D’Croz, and A
Palazzo, 2011: US Food
Security and Climate
Change: Agriculture
Futures. Int’l Conf. on
Climate Change and
Food Security. Chinese
Academy of Agriculural
Sciences, Beijing,
China.
Changes in Simulated Maize Yields Under Four GCM Future
Scenario Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson,
R Beachy, GC Nelson, D
Mason-D’Croz, and A
Palazzo, 2011: US Food
Security and Climate
Change: Agriculture
Futures. Int’l Conf. on
Climate Change and
Food Security. Chinese
Academy of Agriculural
Sciences, Beijing,
China.
Changes in Simulated Soybean Yields Under Four GCM Future
Scenario Climates (2050-2000)
Takle, ES, D Gustafson,
R Beachy, GC Nelson, D
Mason-D’Croz, and A
Palazzo, 2011: US Food
Security and Climate
Change: Agriculture
Futures. Int’l Conf. on
Climate Change and
Food Security. Chinese
Academy of Agriculural
Sciences, Beijing,
China.
Summary
Pay attention to model uncertainty before jumping
to conclusions about climate change
Each impacts model seems to bring its own set of
climate model interpretation issues
Evaluation of mid-century food security is complex
and needs both high resolution climate and
pest/pathogen modeling in addition to crop
modeling
For More Information:
Climate Science Program
Iowa State University
http://climate.engineering.iastate.edu/
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
[email protected]