Download Maintaining ecosystem services for human well

adapting to
climate change
Maintaining ecosystem services for human well-being in the
Namakwa District Municipality, South Africa
This document summarises the outcomes of a climate
change vulnerability assessment, of expected climate change
related hazards and their impact on terrestrial biodiversity
and related human well-being, in the Namakwa District
Municipality of South Africa, completed by Conservation
South Africa, an affiliate of Conservation International, and its
partners, in 2012.
Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability
Assessment Project Leads
Table of contents
3
The Namakwa District Municipality;
4
Threats to Natural Resources;
5
Climate Change Impacts;
6
Ecological Vulnerability;
Amanda Bourne, Conservation South Africa
Dr Stephen Holness, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan
University, Prof Guy Midgley, South African National
Biodiversity Institute, Dr Camila Donatti, Conservation
International
10 Socio-economic Vulnerability;
The Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment
was conducted by;
Conservation South Africa, Conservation International,
the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety and their International
Climate Initiative Programme, the Provincial Government of
the Northern Cape, the Namakwa District Municipality, the
6 Namakwa Local Municipalities, SANBI, Watees Consulting
Pty (Ltd), and the Department of Environment and Nature
Conservation.
15References
Namakwa District Municipality Vulnerability Assessment
Project Contributors
Lead Author, Amanda Bourne, Conservation South Africa
Malinda Gardiner, Conservation South Africa
Tessa Mildenhall, Conservation South Africa
Sarshen Marais, Conservation South Africa
Farayi Madziwa, Conservation South Africa
Reginald Christiaan, Conservation South Africa
Anton du Plessis, Consultant
Photo credits
©Tessa Mildenhall
©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro
©CSA/K Swartz
©Nick Helme
©CSA/Green Renaissance
©CSA/Jacob Cloete
©CSA/Alex Marsh
©CSA/Amanda Bourne
Map credits
©CSA/Stephen Holness
©CSA/Halcyone Muller
12 Adapting to Climate Change
14 Tools & Resources
Conservation South Africa (CSA)
Mission
South Africa’s Hotspots are restored and
maintained to provide water, food and climate
change resilience for the long-term benefit of
people and nature.
The Namakwa District Municipality
Bordering Namibia in the far northwest of
South Africa’s Northern Cape Province, the
126 800 ha Namakwa District Municipality
(NDM) is home to 126,000 people, at a
population density of 1/km2. Located
at the heart of the Succulent Karoo the
District is made up of 6 local municipalities,
Kamiesberg, Nama Khoi, Richtersveld, Khai
Ma, Hantam, and Karoo Hoogland.
Its location is an important feature of the
area as the Succulent Karoo is one of only
two semi-arid biodiversity hotspots in the
world, and exhibits by far the highest plant
diversity of any arid ecosystem. Having
both summer and winter rainfall arid
zones contributes extensively to the NDM’s
exceptional biodiversity. The Succulent
Karoo falls primarily in the District’s winter
rainfall region, along the coast, and a large
area of summer rainfall Nama Karoo and
small patches of the Mediterranean climate
Fynbos are found in the extreme south west
of the District.
Impressively the NDM contains 105 distinct vegetation types. The Succulent Karoo biodiversity hotspot alone
is home to more than 6000 plant species, 250 bird species, 78 different mammals, 132 species of reptile and
amphibian, and an unknown number of insect species. There are also high levels of endemism, with more than
40% of these species, particularly the unique and various indigenous succulents, found nowhere else on earth.
The world’s largest quiver tree forests (Aloe dichotoma, a charismatic plant known locally as the kokerboom)
grow near Loeriesfontein, Kenhardt, and Onseepkans, and the region’s many geophytes and daisies make for
unparalleled spring flower displays. The most widespread economic activity in the region is livestock grazing, with
about 95% of the landscape grazed extensively by sheep and goats. As such, human well-being in the region is
sustained primarily by these rich ecosystems and the services they provide, in terms of freshwater, grazing for
animals, and soil erosion control.
Vision
To promote and support conservation,
restoration, and sustainable land use in South
Africa’s Hotspots as an essential element of food
security and land reform, human and economic
development, and building resilience to the
impacts of climate change.
Illustration:
©CSA/Tessa Mildenhall
2
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Multiple impacts on the natural resources of the Namakwa District
climate change impacts
existing pressures
Increasing temperatures:
Overgrazing:
Global climate change will act as a ‘risk multiplier’,
exacerbating these existing pressures.
Average annual temperatures vary from year to year,
but are expected to see a 1-2°C rise by 2050 and
3-4°C by 2100. In the temperature scenario maps
(below), all three scenarios predict that average
annual temperatures will increase by 2050. This is
likely to lead to an increase in overall aridity in the
The most extensive pressure
on the landscape is from
livestock farming and
although stock limits and
grazing plans exist, signs of
overgrazing are widespread.
This is especially evident
in communal areas where
motives for farming with livestock are not purely
profit driven and where limited incentives and
economic alternatives exist.
Changes in rainfall patterns:
Changes in Rainfall Patterns: Rainfall is variable
between years, but is expected to decrease along the
west coast of South Africa. The rainfall scenario maps
(page 6), show greater uncertainty with the best
case scenario indicating small increases in rainfall in
certain areas, while the intermediate and worst case
scenarios predict a reduction in rainfall across the
NDM. The most dramatic reductions occur in presentday higher rainfall areas.
Destructive or
Illegal Mining:
Transformation from
mining has put significant
pressure on the mineral
rich NDM. Open caste and
alluvial diamond mining
activities along the coast
and river flood plains have
transformed the coastline,
whilebase metal, gypsum,
and quartz mining continues.
Over abstraction of Water
Resources:
Most settlements depend on groundwater and
water imported from the region’s only perennial
river, the Orange River. Half of all settlements
already use more than 80% of the available water
Increasing aridity:
Natural Disasters:
Fresh Water
The NDM is a naturally arid area, with an annual
average rainfall of about 200mm. The area is
subject to periodic droughts, which can have a
devastating impact on the ability of the landscape
to sustain livestock. Desiccated land is also more
prone to flooding when the rains fall.
Healthy catchments
rivers and wetland
networks recharge
ground water and
supply communities
with fresh water.
Unsustainable land use:
4
Unsustainable land uses common in the area
include: ploughing of wetlands and natural veld
for fodder cropping, uncontrolled harvesting
of natural products, and irresponsible tourism
activities in sensitive areas.
Succulent Karoo
Veld
Grazing & Cropping
Healthy, natural veld
provides food for
livestock and other
natural products.
Natural Beauty
Mineral Wealth
Coastal Resources
Dramatic landscapes,
wide open spaces and
beautiful spring flowers
encourage visitors and
create jobs.
Namaqualand is
mineral rich with
copper, zinc, diamonds
and gypsum etc.
The rich, cold
Benguela current
nourishes fish, kelp
and shellfish.
A combination of reduced rainfall and increased
temperatures could have very adverse effects
on water availability, water quality, agricultural
productivity, human health, and the biodiversity that
underpins much of the region’s economic activity.
Water, however, will likely be the most impacted
resource.
Other hazards:
Other climate change hazards we investigated are
shown to be low risk. These include sea level rise
and storm surges, as the Namakwa coast is relatively
protected by its steep, rocky, and isolated coastline.
It was also found that CO2 fertilisation of grasses
and changes in fog patterns were unlikely to have a
significant impact on the region.
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Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District
Climate change, related to rainfall and temperature in the Namakwa District Municipality, is highly likely to have an
impact on biome stability, endemic species survival, and the availability and quality of freshwater. Existing pressures
on the landscape will be exacerbated by Climate change impacts and agricultural productivity, in the region, will
be affected by an increase in aridity, which will have negative impacts on biomass production and water resources.
Temperature vulnerability
Current scenario
Rainfall vulnerability
Current scenario
Climate Envelopes:
Biome Stability
Envelope: low risk
Envelope: Namaqua biomes
Current scenario
Envelope: medium risk
Temperature medium risk
Rainfall medium risk
Envelope: current biome
Envelope: high risk
South Africa has nine biomes, four of which are found
within the Namakwa District, namely the Succulent Karoo,
Nama-Karoo, Fynbos and Desert biomes. Each biome has
a characteristic ‘climate envelope’, a range and pattern of
temperature and rainfall values, within which it occurs.
6
Scientific understanding of the influence of climate on
vegetation types dictates that, as the climate changes, an
area that is currently climatically suited to one biome might
become climatically suited to another. This would cause
climate-related stress for some components of the biome.
Maps were developed showing the best, worst and median
case scenarios for temperature and rainfall.
Statistical modelling was used to develop a biome
distribution model, which predicts the distribution of biomes
based on climate data to 2050. Some key outcomes of the
modelling are:
• Areas with a climate envelope characteristic of Succulent
Karoo largely persist under all scenarios.
• The climate envelope found in the Nama-Karoo area of
the NDM is likely to remain stable under the best case
and median scenarios, but changes to a Desert climate
envelope in the north, under the worst case scenario.
• Under the best case scenario, the core portions of the
Fynbos, typically located in the mountainous areas,
remain within the current biome envelope. The islands
of Fynbos found in the NDM are, however, likely to
come under increasing stress in higher risk scenarios,
with the climate envelopes in these areas becoming
more like Succulent Karoo.
• Areas with a climate similar to the current Desert biome
are likely to expand in the future.
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Ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District
Impact on endemic species:
Showing areas of biome stability under climate
change does not necessarily imply that impacts
will not be extremely serious for a very large
number of species. Namaqualand plant diversity
might be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic
climate change, despite some inherent species
resilience and tolerance of arid conditions. Some
simple modelling of the probable impact of
changes in the spatial extent of climate suitability
to 2050 suggests that both generalist species,
with large geographic ranges, and narrowrange endemics may be susceptible to range
contractions due to climate change. For example
species level information available from Midgley
and Thuiller (2010), who modelled climate change
response in 20 Karoo Succulent endemic species,
showed that most species would experience a
range reduction under climate change.
Endemic species of the Kamiesberg
Impact on freshwater:
The NDM is a naturally
water scarce area,
with low rainfall and
relatively high average
temperatures. This
has resulted in a
high average aridity
index. Changes in
either temperature
or rainfall regimes
will impact negatively
on water availability
in the region, as well as on water quality,
through, for example, increasing evaporation
rates and increasing pressures on groundwater
resources. With only one perennial river in the
region, seasonal rivers, wetlands networks,
and groundwater have provided a vital fresh
water ecosystem service. These have, however,
been undervalued, as the region contributes
only a small fraction of South Africa’s national
freshwater.
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The Succulent Karoo
is one of only two
semi-arid biodiversity
hotspots in the world,
and exhibits by far the
highest plant diversity
of any arid ecosystem.
9
Human vulnerability to climate change in the Namakwa District
Socio Economic Vulnerability:
Socio-economic Vulnerability: The NDM is
The natural resources of the Namakwa District are essential to the livelihoods of the 126,000
people who live in the 6 local municipalities. Around 50% of the District’s population lives in
Institutional Vulnerability:
South Africa has strong institutions and powerful
rural communities. The impacts of climate change have the potential to impact not only on their
livelihoods and infrastructure, but also on their food and health.
NAMAKWA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY: HAZARD IDENTIFICATION USING INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE
Local Municipality
Hazard
Karoo
Hoogland
Hantam
Kamiesberg Nama Khoi
Richtersveld
Khai-Ma
Most Vulnerable
Drought
large and sparsely populated. This limits the
effective delivery of basic services, such as
health care. The District is further characterised
by a challenging natural environment, and
limited economic opportunities for the majority
of the population. The local economy is highly
dependent on natural resources and based on
small stock grazing and a declining mining sector.
Given the agricultural basis of the economy,
climate change impacts around reduced rainfall
and increased temperatures are likely to have a
negative impact on productivity and livelihoods,
exacerbated by the high levels of poverty and low
levels of education.
Water Availability
Somewhat Vulnerable
Flood
Soil Erosion
Not vulnerable/Not affected
Coastal Storms
Rising sea levels
Rising ocean
temperature
Road Infrastructure
Vulnerable
Somewhat
Vulnerable
legislation, setting the context for judicious
natural resource management nationally. There is
high level understanding of South Africa’s socioeconomic dependence on a healthy environment
as well as commitment to the need to adapt to
the projected impacts of climate change on the
environment. This has resulted in well-developed
biodiversity management plans nationally and in
the provinces and some districts, including the
Namakwa District.
There are, however, many implementation
challenges at the local level, exacerbated by
extremely limited staff capacity and no funds
allocated at the local level for environmental
works. Likewise, while climate change and
adaptation are on the agenda for many local
politicians and officials, there are no official
bodies dedicated to adapting to climate change.
Health Services
Poverty
Not Vulnerable
Mine activities
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Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts
Towards a resilient Namakwa District, PRIMED for an effective response to climate change . (PRIMED = Protect,
Recognise, Integrate, Monitor, Establish, and Diversify).
Climate change is likely to exacerbate existing extreme weather conditions in the Namakwa District, with serious and
irreversible consequences for local ecosystems and the services they provide. Any disruption of ecological functions
and ecosystem services will have severe impacts on the well-being of people, especially in arid rural areas, such as the
Namakwa District, where the economy is very dependent on its natural resources.
Adaptation is the only solution to ensure that ecosystems and human communities can maintain their well-being
when exposed to the impacts of climate change. To decrease vulnerability in the Namakwa District, the following
recommendations should be implemented:
PRIMED
Protect:
• Natural areas that deliver ecosystem services, contribute to corridors for species
movement, and build resilience to climate change
• Ecosystems that sustain important economic activities e.g. tourism or agricultural
activities
Monitor:
• High water yield areas, catchments, and river and wetlands networks
• Climate patterns and weather events locally
• Ground water resources.
• Species response to climate change
• The impact of EbA for reducing vulnerability in populations
Recognise:
• That poverty and climate change adaptation must be tackled together
Establish:
• That adaptation to climate change must be located within the broader
developmental context
• A strong multi-stakeholder adaptation committee, located in local government, to
ensure alignment across sectors and the effective implementation of EbA at scale
• That the biodiversity of the region provides the basis for economic growth and
development in the NDM
• Close collaborations with partners
Integrate:
• Identified EbA priority areas into existing related programmes across all levels of
government and across departments, e.g. disaster risk reduction, local economic
development
• Methods to strengthen the capacity of local institutions such as farmers’ unions or
commonage committees to implement EbA solutions
Diversify:
• Develop alternative sustainable nature based livelihoods as part of a vibrant green
economy for the region.
• EbA activities such as restoration to support and contribute to local and national
priorities around job creation and economic growth
12
• Participatory processes into improved land and natural resource management and
planning
13
References
Tools and resources
References and further reading
FULL TECHNICAL REPORT
Vulnerability Assessment Technical Report
A full technical report providing detailed information on the expected impacts of climate
change; identifying key ecological, socio-economic, and institutional vulnerabilities in the
NDM; highlighting indicators for prioritising and monitoring climate change responses; and
recommending a variety of EbA and other actions to build resilience locally, is available for
download at www.conservation.org/vulnerabilityAssessment
climate change
Vulnerability
Assessment
for the Namakwa District Municipality
Amanda Bourne, Dr Camila Donatti, Dr Stephen Holness
& Professor Guy Midgley
September 2012
Department of Social Development. 2009.
‘Possible Effects and Impact of Climate Change on Human Settlements and Population
Development in the Northern Cape’. Unpublished Research Report.
Du Plessis, Anton. 2010. Namakwa District Municipality: Disaster Risk Reduction
Progress Report. Consultant Report compiled by Watees for Namakwa District
Municipality.
Midgley, Guy, Brian van Wilgen, and Brian Mantlana (Eds). 2010. South Africa’s Second
National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (draft). Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA), Pretoria. Available for
download at http://www.environment.gov.za/HotIssues/2010/climatechange_snc.pdf
Ecosystem based Adaptation Priority Areas Map
The EbA priority areas map is a spatial tool prioritising locations
in the NDM that are both threatened by the impacts of climate
change and are likely to respond well to EbA approaches, in terms
of delivering the ecosystems services and functions that will help
the District respond effectively to climate change.
The darker areas on the map are priority areas and should be tackled
first where budgets or capacity are limited, in order to ensure the
maximum EbA benefit for the NDM.
Midgley, G.F, and W. Thuiller. 2007. ‘Potential vulnerability of Namaqualand
plant diversity to anthropogenic climate change’ in Journal of Arid
Environments:doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2006.11.020
Northern Cape Provincial Government. 2008. Namakwa District Biodiversity Sector
Plan.
For more information on the Namakwa District Vulnerability Assessment Project,
please contact:
Vulnerability Index
The vulnerability index below provides a general indication of
vulnerabilities for the Namakwa District based on selected
parameters selected. Each parameter was informed by several
indicators, which can be used to inform decision-making, prioritysetting, and monitoring of adaptation and EbA actions.
The NDM has an overall vulnerability score of 3.5. This translates as
medium-high overall vulnerability.
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Overall Climate Change
Vulnerability for the Namakwa
District Municipality
Ecological
Vulnerability
3.85
Socio-economic
Vulnerability
3.8
Institutional
Vulnerability
3
Overall Vulnerability
Index
3.5
Amanda Bourne
Climate Adaptation Coordinator
Conservation South Africa – Namakwa Green Economy Demonstration
[email protected]
Conservation South Africa
Centre for Biodiversity Conservation
Kirstenbosch National Botanical Gardens
Rhodes Drive
Newlands, Cape Town
7700
www.conservation.org/southafrica
15
References
Japan Meteorology Agency. RSMC Best Track Data. Updated 21 June 2009. Storm
track data from 1952-2008 within 200 km from Verde Island. Japan Meteorology
Agency, www. jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/.
NOAA. Sea surface temperature increase (ºC/year) in the Verde Island Passage
from 1985-2006. NOAA-Coral Reef Watch, coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite.
For further reading
Carpenter, K.E. and V.G. Springer. 2005. The center of the center of marine shore
fish biodiversity: the Philippines Islands. Env. Biol. Fish. 72:467-480.
IUCN. 2008. Status of the World’s Marine Species. International Union for
Conservation of Nature Red List, www.iucn.org/redlist.
For more information on the Verde Island Passage
Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact:
Giuseppe Di Carlo, PhD
Manager, Marine Climate Change Program
Conservation International - Global Marine Division
[email protected]
Rowena Boquiren, PhD
Socioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) Leader
Conservation International - Philippines
[email protected]
Conservation International
2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500
Arlington, VA 22202 USA
Web: www.conservation.org
www.conservation.org/southafrica
Photo credits
©Teri Aquino
©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro
©Tim Carruthers
©Benjamin De Ridder, Marine Photobank
©CI/photo by Giuseppe Di Carlo
© Google Earth
©Keith Ellenbogen
©CI/photo by Michelle Encomienda
©CI/photo by Jürgen Freund
©Leonard J McKenzie
©CI/photo by Miledel C. Quibilan
©rembss, Flickr
©Badi Samaniego
©CI/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn