* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Climate change, community wellbeing and social justice
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, community wellbeing and social justice: Implications for community sector action Presentation to VCOSS & McCaughey Centre Conference: ‘Communities in a Changing Climate: Social and equity implications of climate change’, Melbourne, February 25 2009 Professor John Wiseman, McCaughey Centre, Melbourne School of Population Health University of Melbourne Presentation notes 1. Title slide: Climate change, community wellbeing and social justice: Implications for the Australian community sector 2 - Introduction and Overview Professor David de Kretser, Governor of Victoria and Mrs de Kretser, distinguished guests and colleagues. My aim in this brief talk is to build a bridge between understanding climate change impacts and considering possible actions by addressing two questions. 1.What are the implications of the latest scientific evidence about climate change for the health and wellbeing of communities with a particular focus on social impacts and vulnerabilities for Victoria communities 2. What principles should inform Australian priorities and actions in responding to the challenges of climate change – with a particular focus on implications for the community sector. Key points 1.The scientific and moral case for emergency action to prevent catastrophic climate change is now overwhelming. 2. Current carbon emission and climate change trends will have profound and devastating impacts on health and wellbeing. 3. The most disadvantaged people and communities will be most vulnerable. 4. Business –or politics - as usual is not an option. We need to ensure a just outcome for both current and future generations. 5. The key task is therefore to build - at emergency speed - a just and democratic pathway which leads to the prevention of catastrophic climate change – and to effective and sustainable adaptation. 3. Climate science: the case for action The climate science jury is now well and truly in. As Grant has noted the IPCC report was bad enough. Unfortunately it is now widely recognised, including by many of the senior IPCC scientific advisers, that all the key observable climate trends are at or above the most pessimistic IPCC scenario predictions. The photo on this slide shows the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The graph shows various predictions for summer sea ice loss in the Arctic with the black line showing actual observations. The arctic ocean is now expected to be ice-free in summer by 2011 – 2015, eighty years earlier than predicted by the 2007 IPCC report. 4. Climate change tipping points The rapidly melting Arctic sea ice is just one of a number of examples of key climate tipping points. The chain of events which climate scientists are increasingly concerned about involves the following An ice-free Arctic now predicted to happen within 2 to 6 years is likely to lead to faster warming at the north pole due to the sunlight previously reflected by ice now being absorbed by dark ocean. This temperature rise has the potential to trigger the thawing of the Arctic permafrost which would lead to the release of huge stores of greenhouse gases This is likely lead to temperature rises well beyond any conditions human beings have ever lived in. An understanding of tipping points such as these make it clear that, adaptation without effective mitigation makes little sense. We do have to take action to adapt to the climate changes already locked in. But we must also realise there are limits to adaptation – just as there are limits to the effectiveness of sprinklers and wet towels in defending against a firestorm. The highest priority must therefore be rapid and effective action to prevent runaway climate change. 5 – The human impact of climate change: global challenges Alongside mounting evidence of the dramatic physical impacts of climate change we are seeing growing evidence of the implications of climate change for human health and wellbeing. Global climate change has the potential to tip pressured systems over the edge. To take just one sobering example, the loss of the Himalayan-Hindu Khush glacier in central Asia – currently expected to disappear by 2040 at the latest – will remove the main source of water for approximately 1.3 billion people in the region. 6 . The human impact: Australia and Victoria Grant provided us with a range number of CSIRO statistics about the likely impact of climate change on Australia. (Even though predicted regional climate change impacts published by the CSIRO have been based on conservative IPCC findings they still show dramatic local consequences for Victoria. With the world continuing along a high emissions path, Victorians over the next two to three generations would be exposed to: temperature rises of between 1.8 to 3.8 ºC, up to 25% less annual rainfall, more frequent heat waves and warm nights (including double the number of days over 35 ºC in Melbourne), increasing evaporation rates, increased days of high fire danger, much less snowfall, more frequent drought and greater risk of coastal erosion and inundation. Unfortunately, given that these predictions are based on IPCC estimations, there is reason to believe that Victorians will have to cope with even more dramatic changes to the weather patterns they are used to.) Let me just re-emphaise three of the sharpest links between climate change, health and wellbeing in Australia. The February bushfires have provided us with a clear and urgent wake up call about the link between climate change and extreme weather events. They have also reminded us, as Peter Marshall, National Secretary of the United Firefighters Union reminds us that ‘ it is always better to prevent a emergency than to have to rescue people from it.’ 7. The Human impact: heat But its also critical to remember that the heatwave that engulfed south eastern Victoria in early 2009 had broader consequences than the bushfires. Evidence is now growing about the impact of climate change related temperature increases on human health and on the demand for hospital, ambulance and emergency services. 8. The Human impact: drought While we do need to be careful about attributing direct causal links between overall climate trends and specific weather events like drought the overall patters are clear and compelling. The following quotes from a recent report on the impact of drought on people by Lauren Rickards of RMCG are a powerful reminder of the physical and mental implications for individuals, families and communities. ‘Living with what has been 10-15 years of dryness for some areas is about a lot more than failed crops and skinny sheep. It is also about losing your neighbours, your friends, your employees and your family to the mines, the city or foreclosure. It is about losing your local shops, services, schools and sports clubs. It is about growing isolation, having no water in the house, and worrying about your children. It is about not being able to sleep, to talk, to move because of the uncertainty and stress. It is about hearing new ideas you know you should try but not having the money, the time, the energy, the know-how or the courage to do so.’ 9. The Human impact: floods …and its also important to remember that while south east Australia has been suffering from drought and fire, north east Australia has been experiencing record floods. Climate change = extreme weather events – not just warming 10. Impacts of climate change on health and well being The complexity of scientific evidence can be overwhelming. Abstract scientific evidence about rising emissions and melting ice caps needs to be translated into clear, accessible messages about the implications for individuals – and for the households, communities and societies in which they live. So lets take stock of some of the mounting evidence about the likely impact of climate change on the key determinants of health and wellbeing. Food Increased droughts and extreme weather events will impact on Australia’s local and imported food supply leading to price rises and scarcity. Refer to CIV food security map. Water Climate change will reduce amount of water available for much of Australia’s population. People on low incomes will struggle to afford water tanks or water saving technologies. Energy Transforming our energy system to withstand impacts of climate change and transition to renewable energy will increase energy costs. Housing As the climate alters, housing will need to alter to provide adequate protection from heat and extreme weather events. Costs make retrofitting prohibitive for people on low incomes. Transport Higher costs of petrol and public transport due to increasing electricity costs and policies to reduce emissions will make mobility more expensive. Work and unemployment Adapting to the impacts of climate change will require major changes to climate vulnerable industries such as agriculture and tourism. Changes to emissions intensive industries such as energy production, transport, agriculture, mining and heavy industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also impact on employment. Access to health services Extreme weather events can disrupt access to essential services including health services. Social support Climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, displacement, economic restructuring and heatwaves all require networks of social support to assist individuals and communities to respond and adapt. People who are socially excluded will find it harder to adapt. 11. Impacts of climate change on mental health Impact of extreme weather events and natural disasters Impact on key determinants of mental health Freedom from violence and discrimination Social and economic inclusion Sense of hope for the future 12. Climate vulnerability and resilience While climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts will not be evenly distributed amongst people and places. This is both because of the geographical variation of climate impacts but also the distribution of the economic and social capacity to respond to climate emergencies and adapt over time. Unabated and unaddressed, climate change will exacerbate existing social inequities. This raises many ethical issues about responsibility for reducing emissions and bearing the costs of adaptation – an issue further complicated as the build up of emissions in the atmosphere has been largely contributed to by nations and parts of the community which have become wealthy from their use of cheap resources and energy. There are many different definitions and debates about climate vulnerability – and resilience. It is clear that climate vulnerability is closely related to other sources of social, economic and environmental vulnerability. And it is certainly essential to take careful note of local knowledge and local wisdom in understanding the sources of vulnerability and the strengths which provide hope and resilience. 13. Vulnerable communities There is increasing evidence that coastal communities, flood and bushfire prone areas and places confronting extreme water shortages are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Communities dependent on the natural environment for their livelihoods are also at high risk. The massive economic and social changes needed to combat climate change will directly affect communities with high proportions of their workforce dependent on carbon-intensive economic activities such as mining, heavy industry and fossil fuel powered energy generation. Poorly planned and implemented economic transition for these communities will lead to hardship and exacerbate inequalities. 14. Victorian community of Wangaratta The work on local and regional impacts of climate change already carried out by DSE and CSIRO provides a valuable foundation for understanding the impacts for particular Victorian communities. This work tells us for example that implications for Wangaratta and the north east region of Victoria are likely to include the following. More hot days, particularly in summer Fewer rainy days with the greatest decreases in rainfall expected in spring More intense rain when rain does fall – and therefore greater risk of floods and crop damage But overall decreased rainfall, higher evaporation rates and increased water demand are likely to mean less soil moisture and less water for rivers. Lower flows and higher temperatures may also reduce water quality – creating more favourable conditions for harmful algal blooms. Impacts on employment and communities 15. Vulnerable populations Research by a range of organisations including the Brotherhood of St. Laurence, VCOSS, DPCD and DHS have also begun to bring together compelling evidence of the likely impact of climate change on the health and wellbeing of particular population groups. Not surprisingly the evidence suggests that there are serious equity concerns. People without the financial resources to adapt to a changing climate will suffer greater effects. Many people living on low incomes will struggle to make the capital investment required to reduce their risk. Some population groups such as isolated older people and people with chronic illness will be more affected by health effects of climate change. 16. Importance of informed engagement, debate and action The speed with which scientific evidence is evolving makes it essential that all citizens and local communities have access to high quality, up to date information on local climate trends and implications. The need to engage citizens and communities in informed, effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies also makes it essential that there is significant support for climate change community engagement programs and that all local communities have access to accurate, up to date evidence on energy consumption. Note Community Engagement and Climate Change: VCOSS, COTA and McCaughey Centre, for Department of Planning and Community Development S. Grampians and Glenelg PCP Climate Change Adaptation: A framework for local action Liveable and Just: Improving the capacity of local government to respond to climate change in ways which are healthy, just and sustainable. McCaughey Centre with VLGA, BSL, DSE supported by Victorian Sustainability accord 17. Conclusions The key messages I want to leave you with are these. 1.The scientific and moral case for emergency action to prevent catastrophic climate change is now overwhelming. 2. Current carbon emission and climate change trends will have profound and devastating impacts on health and wellbeing. 3. The most disadvantaged people and communities will be most vulnerable. 4. Business –or politics - as usual is not an option. We need to ensure a just outcome for both current and future generations. 18. Implications for action Equitable adaptation to climate impacts already locked in is essential. However the highest priority must be urgent action to prevent catastrophic climate change. - This requires rapid action to reduce carbon emissions and to draw down carbon. - The transition program to a zero carbon economy needs to be on the scale of the Apollo Program or the investment needed to fight World War II and achieve post war reconstruction - All countries must play their part. Australia and Victoria have a special responsibility and a unique opportunity to lead by example 19. Community sector implications Climate change is already having very real and practical implications for the community sector. At a time of rapidly rising demands driven by the global financial crisis… This includes: Increased health and wellbeing impacts – particularly for the most vulnerable and disadvantaged populations. Increased demands on community sector workers and organisations 20. Community sector priorities •Research – on climate change impacts, vulnerability and resilience •Climate literacy - Informed community debate about the implications of most up to date and credible climate change science. •Advocacy - Emergency action to prevent catastrophic climate change •Policy development –Building a just and democratic transition pathways •New and expanded services – to meet new demands and provide support for fair and equitable adaptation 21. The key challenge To build - at emergency speed - a just and democratic pathway which leads to the prevention of catastrophic climate change – and to effective and sustainable adaptation.