Download Climate change, community wellbeing and social justice

Climate change, community wellbeing and social justice:
Implications for community sector action
Presentation to VCOSS & McCaughey Centre Conference:
‘Communities in a Changing Climate: Social and equity implications of
climate change’, Melbourne, February 25 2009
Professor John Wiseman, McCaughey Centre, Melbourne School of
Population Health University of Melbourne
Presentation notes
1. Title slide: Climate change, community wellbeing and social
justice: Implications for the Australian community sector
2 - Introduction and Overview
Professor David de Kretser, Governor of Victoria and Mrs de
Kretser, distinguished guests and colleagues.
My aim in this brief talk is to build a bridge between understanding
climate change impacts and considering possible actions by
addressing two questions.
1.What are the implications of the latest scientific evidence about
climate change for the health and wellbeing of communities with a
particular focus on social impacts and vulnerabilities for Victoria
communities
2. What principles should inform Australian priorities and actions in
responding to the challenges of climate change – with a particular
focus on implications for the community sector.
Key points
1.The scientific and moral case for emergency action to prevent
catastrophic climate change is now overwhelming.
2. Current carbon emission and climate change trends will have
profound and devastating impacts on health and wellbeing.
3. The most disadvantaged people and communities will be most
vulnerable.
4. Business –or politics - as usual is not an option. We need to
ensure a just outcome for both current and future generations.
5. The key task is therefore to build - at emergency speed - a just
and democratic pathway which leads to the prevention of
catastrophic climate change – and to effective and sustainable
adaptation.
3. Climate science: the case for action
The climate science jury is now well and truly in.
As Grant has noted the IPCC report was bad enough.
Unfortunately it is now widely recognised, including by many of the
senior IPCC scientific advisers, that all the key observable climate
trends are at or above the most pessimistic IPCC scenario
predictions.
The photo on this slide shows the melting of the Greenland ice
sheet. The graph shows various predictions for summer sea ice
loss in the Arctic with the black line showing actual observations.
The arctic ocean is now expected to be ice-free in summer by
2011 – 2015, eighty years earlier than predicted by the 2007 IPCC
report.
4. Climate change tipping points
The rapidly melting Arctic sea ice is just one of a number of
examples of key climate tipping points. The chain of events which
climate scientists are increasingly concerned about involves the
following
An ice-free Arctic now predicted to happen within 2 to 6 years is
likely to lead to faster warming at the north pole due to the sunlight
previously reflected by ice now being absorbed by dark ocean.
This temperature rise has the potential to trigger the thawing of the
Arctic permafrost which would lead to the release of huge stores of
greenhouse gases This is likely lead to temperature rises well
beyond any conditions human beings have ever lived in.
An understanding of tipping points such as these make it clear
that, adaptation without effective mitigation makes little sense. We
do have to take action to adapt to the climate changes already
locked in. But we must also realise there are limits to adaptation –
just as there are limits to the effectiveness of sprinklers and wet
towels in defending against a firestorm. The highest priority must
therefore be rapid and effective action to prevent runaway climate
change.
5 – The human impact of climate change: global challenges
Alongside mounting evidence of the dramatic physical impacts of
climate change we are seeing growing evidence of the implications
of climate change for human health and wellbeing.
Global climate change has the potential to tip pressured systems
over the edge. To take just one sobering example, the loss of the
Himalayan-Hindu Khush glacier in central Asia – currently
expected to disappear by 2040 at the latest – will remove the main
source of water for approximately 1.3 billion people in the region.
6 . The human impact: Australia and Victoria
Grant provided us with a range number of CSIRO statistics about
the likely impact of climate change on Australia.
(Even though predicted regional climate change impacts published
by the CSIRO have been based on conservative IPCC findings
they still show dramatic local consequences for Victoria. With the
world continuing along a high emissions path, Victorians over the
next two to three generations would be exposed to: temperature
rises of between 1.8 to 3.8 ºC, up to 25% less annual rainfall, more
frequent heat waves and warm nights (including double the
number of days over 35 ºC in Melbourne), increasing evaporation
rates, increased days of high fire danger, much less snowfall, more
frequent drought and greater risk of coastal erosion and
inundation. Unfortunately, given that these predictions are based
on IPCC estimations, there is reason to believe that Victorians will
have to cope with even more dramatic changes to the weather
patterns they are used to.)
Let me just re-emphaise three of the sharpest links between
climate change, health and wellbeing in Australia.
The February bushfires have provided us with a clear and urgent
wake up call about the link between climate change and extreme
weather events. They have also reminded us, as Peter Marshall,
National Secretary of the United Firefighters Union reminds us that
‘ it is always better to prevent a emergency than to have to rescue
people from it.’
7. The Human impact: heat
But its also critical to remember that the heatwave that engulfed
south eastern Victoria in early 2009 had broader consequences
than the bushfires. Evidence is now growing about the impact of
climate change related temperature increases on human health
and on the demand for hospital, ambulance and emergency
services.
8. The Human impact: drought
While we do need to be careful about attributing direct causal links
between overall climate trends and specific weather events like
drought the overall patters are clear and compelling.
The following quotes from a recent report on the impact of drought
on people by Lauren Rickards of RMCG are a powerful reminder
of the physical and mental implications for individuals, families
and communities.
‘Living with what has been 10-15 years of dryness for some areas
is about a lot more than failed crops and skinny sheep.
It is also about losing your neighbours, your friends, your
employees and your family to the mines, the city or foreclosure. It
is about losing your local shops, services, schools and sports
clubs. It is about growing isolation, having no water in the house,
and worrying about your children. It is about not being able to
sleep, to talk, to move because of the uncertainty and stress. It is
about hearing new ideas you know you should try but not having
the money, the time, the energy, the know-how or the courage to
do so.’
9. The Human impact: floods
…and its also important to remember that while south east
Australia has been suffering from drought and fire, north east
Australia has been experiencing record floods.
Climate change = extreme weather events – not just warming
10. Impacts of climate change on health and well being
The complexity of scientific evidence can be overwhelming.
Abstract scientific evidence about rising emissions and melting ice
caps needs to be translated into clear, accessible messages about
the implications for individuals – and for the households,
communities and societies in which they live.
So lets take stock of some of the mounting evidence about the
likely impact of climate change on the key determinants of health
and wellbeing.
Food Increased droughts and extreme weather events will impact
on Australia’s local and imported food supply leading to price rises
and scarcity. Refer to CIV food security map.
Water Climate change will reduce amount of water available for
much of Australia’s population. People on low incomes will
struggle to afford water tanks or water saving technologies.
Energy Transforming our energy system to withstand impacts of
climate change and transition to renewable energy will increase
energy costs.
Housing As the climate alters, housing will need to alter to provide
adequate protection from heat and extreme weather events. Costs
make retrofitting prohibitive for people on low incomes.
Transport Higher costs of petrol and public transport due to
increasing electricity costs and policies to reduce emissions will
make mobility more expensive.
Work and unemployment Adapting to the impacts of climate
change will require major changes to climate vulnerable industries
such as agriculture and tourism. Changes to emissions intensive
industries such as energy production, transport, agriculture, mining
and heavy industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will also
impact on employment.
Access to health services Extreme weather events can disrupt
access to essential services including health services.
Social support Climate change impacts such as extreme weather
events, displacement, economic restructuring and heatwaves all
require networks of social support to assist individuals and
communities to respond and adapt. People who are socially
excluded will find it harder to adapt.
11. Impacts of climate change on mental health
Impact of extreme weather events and natural disasters
Impact on key determinants of mental health
Freedom from violence and discrimination
Social and economic inclusion
Sense of hope for the future
12. Climate vulnerability and resilience
While climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts will not
be evenly distributed amongst people and places. This is both
because of the geographical variation of climate impacts but also
the distribution of the economic and social capacity to respond to
climate emergencies and adapt over time. Unabated and
unaddressed, climate change will exacerbate existing social
inequities. This raises many ethical issues about responsibility for
reducing emissions and bearing the costs of adaptation – an issue
further complicated as the build up of emissions in the atmosphere
has been largely contributed to by nations and parts of the
community which have become wealthy from their use of cheap
resources and energy.
There are many different definitions and debates about climate
vulnerability – and resilience.
It is clear that climate vulnerability is closely related to other
sources of social, economic and environmental vulnerability.
And it is certainly essential to take careful note of local knowledge
and local wisdom in understanding the sources of vulnerability and
the strengths which provide hope and resilience.
13. Vulnerable communities
There is increasing evidence that coastal communities, flood and
bushfire prone areas and places confronting extreme water
shortages are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change.
Communities dependent on the natural environment for their
livelihoods are also at high risk.
The massive economic and social changes needed to combat
climate change will directly affect communities with high
proportions of their workforce dependent on carbon-intensive
economic activities such as mining, heavy industry and fossil fuel
powered energy generation. Poorly planned and implemented
economic transition for these communities will lead to hardship
and exacerbate inequalities.
14. Victorian community of Wangaratta
The work on local and regional impacts of climate change already
carried out by DSE and CSIRO provides a valuable foundation for
understanding the impacts for particular Victorian communities.
This work tells us for example that implications for Wangaratta and
the north east region of Victoria are likely to include the following.
 More hot days, particularly in summer
 Fewer rainy days with the greatest decreases in rainfall
expected in spring
 More intense rain when rain does fall – and therefore greater
risk of floods and crop damage
 But overall decreased rainfall, higher evaporation rates and
increased water demand are likely to mean less soil moisture
and less water for rivers.
 Lower flows and higher temperatures may also reduce water
quality – creating more favourable conditions for harmful
algal blooms.
Impacts on employment and communities
15. Vulnerable populations
Research by a range of organisations including the Brotherhood of
St. Laurence, VCOSS, DPCD and DHS have also begun to bring
together compelling evidence of the likely impact of climate change
on the health and wellbeing of particular population groups. Not
surprisingly the evidence suggests that there are serious equity
concerns.
People without the financial resources to adapt to a changing
climate will suffer greater effects. Many people living on low
incomes will struggle to make the capital investment required to
reduce their risk. Some population groups such as isolated older
people and people with chronic illness will be more affected by
health effects of climate change.
16. Importance of informed engagement, debate and action
The speed with which scientific evidence is evolving makes it
essential that all citizens and local communities have access to
high quality, up to date information on local climate trends and
implications.
The need to engage citizens and communities in informed,
effective climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies also
makes it essential that there is significant support for climate
change community engagement programs and that all local
communities have access to accurate, up to date evidence on
energy consumption.
Note
Community Engagement and Climate Change: VCOSS, COTA
and McCaughey Centre, for Department of Planning and
Community Development
S. Grampians and Glenelg PCP Climate Change Adaptation: A
framework for local action
Liveable and Just: Improving the capacity of local government to
respond to climate change in ways which are healthy, just and
sustainable. McCaughey Centre with VLGA, BSL, DSE supported
by Victorian Sustainability accord
17. Conclusions
The key messages I want to leave you with are these.
1.The scientific and moral case for emergency action to prevent
catastrophic climate change is now overwhelming.
2. Current carbon emission and climate change trends will have
profound and devastating impacts on health and wellbeing.
3. The most disadvantaged people and communities will be most
vulnerable.
4. Business –or politics - as usual is not an option. We need to
ensure a just outcome for both current and future generations.
18. Implications for action
Equitable adaptation to climate impacts already locked in is
essential.
However the highest priority must be urgent action to prevent
catastrophic climate change.
- This requires rapid action to reduce carbon emissions and to
draw down carbon.
- The transition program to a zero carbon economy needs to be on
the scale of the Apollo Program or the investment needed to fight
World War II and achieve post war reconstruction
- All countries must play their part. Australia and Victoria have a
special responsibility and a unique opportunity to lead by example
19. Community sector implications
Climate change is already having very real and practical
implications for the community sector.
At a time of rapidly rising demands driven by the global financial
crisis…
This includes:
Increased health and wellbeing impacts – particularly for the most
vulnerable and disadvantaged populations.
Increased demands on community sector workers and
organisations
20. Community sector priorities
•Research – on climate change impacts, vulnerability and
resilience
•Climate literacy - Informed community debate about the
implications of most up to date and credible climate change
science.
•Advocacy - Emergency action to prevent catastrophic climate
change
•Policy development –Building a just and democratic transition
pathways
•New and expanded services – to meet new demands and provide
support for fair and equitable adaptation
21. The key challenge
To build - at emergency speed - a just and democratic pathway
which leads to the prevention of catastrophic climate change – and
to effective and sustainable adaptation.