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17/06/2015 Why has Climate change not allready been stopped? Evidence from projections and observations People have been concerned about the rise in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, the result of human activity, since what period of time? 100% Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans Environmental Systems Analysis Group Wageningen University 16th June 2015 1. 2. 3. 4. 18th 19th 20th 21th century century century century 0% 0% 1 2 0% 3 4 In 1896, Svante Arrhenius published the first study measuring how CO2 contributes to the greenhouse effect. CO2 warms the Earth by trapping heat near the surface, a bit like swaddling the planet in an extra blanket. Arrhenius also speculated about whether changes in atmospheric CO2 have contributed to long‐term variations in Earth’s climate. He made the link between burning fossil fuels and global warming, a link we are clearly seeing today. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S1 Which of the following gases do not trap heat (i.e. contribute to the greenhouse effect)? 85% Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S2 We produce more than 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. Where does the majority of it end up? 46% 1. 2. 3. 4. Carbon dioxide Nitrogen Water vapour Methane 8% 8% 0% 1 2 3 1. It is inhaled by trees for photosynthesis. 2. It enters our oceans. 3. It lingers in the atmosphere. 42% 13% 4 1 Heat‐trapping greenhouse gases absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. Water vapour, carbon dioxide and methane are Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases. Nitrogen, which makes up 80 percent of Earth's atmosphere, is not a greenhouse gas. This is because its molecules, which contain two atoms of the same element (nitrogen), are unaffected by infrared light. 2 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S3 In the 10,000 years before the start of the industrial Revolution in 1750, carbon dioxide levels in the air rose by less than 10 percent. Since then they’ve risen by: 3 Forty to 50 percent of the carbon dioxide stays in the air, and almost 30 percent is dissolved in the oceans. Scientists are not fully sure about the rest. They believe it is absorbed by forests, soil and crops. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S4 Melting sea ice could raise sea level by several meters. 68% 58% 1. True 2. False 1. 21 percent 2. 43 percent 3. 62 percent 42% 28% 4% 1 2 3 Since 1750, humans added 590 ± 75 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide. In 2012, 92 percent of all human‐produced carbon dioxide originated from burning coal, natural gas, oil and gasoline. In 1750 the Co2 concentration was c. 280 ppm. Now it is 400 ppm (i.e. a 43% increase). Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S5 1 2 Melting sea ice cannot raise global sea level since the ice is already floating. (Think of an ice cube melting in a glass full of water, which doesn't raise the water level.) However, Arctic sea ice is thinning and the long‐term summer average cover has decreased by 34 percent in 1979. Ice from glaciers and ice sheets, which form on land, does add water to Earth's oceans when it melts and does contribute to sea level rise. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S6 1 17/06/2015 As average global temperature rises, 1. Average precipitation increases 41% 2. Average precipitation decreases 41% 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 18% 3. Average precipitation is unchanged 1 2 Where have some of the strongest and earliest impacts of global warming occurred? 3 A higher temperatures give rise to a more active water cycle, which means faster and greater evaporation and precipitation and more extreme weather events. In the tropics In northern latitudes Over the oceans Over mountains global warming is distributed equally all over the planet 36% 32% 25% 7% 0% 1 3 4 5 Some of the fastest‐warming regions on the planet include Alaska, Greenland and Siberia. These Arctic environments are highly sensitive to even small temperature increases, which can melt sea ice, ice sheet and permafrost, and lead to changes in Earth’s reflectance (or “albedo”). Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S7 http://www.skepticalscience.com/ 2 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S8 Forecasts: Opiate for decision makers http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate‐consensus‐97‐per‐ cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc‐global‐warming‐projections‐accurate Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S9 Union of Concerned Scientists Infographic Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S10 Eminent US climate scientist, Kevin Trenberth The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be. This calls on us to reframe how we think about human-induced climate change. We can no longer place some events into the boxes marked “Nature” and “Human”. "It's not known for sure whether (a) climate change is actually occurring or (b) if it is, whether humans really have any influence on it." American Petroleum Institute, 1998 "...current indirect CO2 benefits clearly outweigh any hypothesized cost by literally orders of magnitude; the benefit-cost ratios range up to more than 200-to-1." Peabody Energy, 2014 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S11 Inventing these two boxes was the defining feature of modernity, founded on Cartesian and Kantian philosophies. Climate science now shows that such a separation can no longer be sustained, that the natural and the human are mixed up, and their influences cannot be neatly distinguished. Trenberth, K.E., 2012: Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change. Climatic Change, 115, 283-290. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S12 2 17/06/2015 Temperature change in the SRES scenarios Climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S13 The IPCC scenarios: GHG emissions Emphasis on material wealth Emphasis on sustainability and equity Complete globalisation Strong regionalisation Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S15 Summary of IPCC SRES scenarios Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S14 The final figure from IPCC’s synthesis report Emissions Narratives Climate change Impacts Concentrations Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S16 New scenarios development process: A time-saving parallel versus sequential approach o Global GHG emissions increase in all scenarios in the next 10-50 years o After 2050, emissions can increase fivefold but also be halved in world futures without climate policy o GHG emissions are strongly related to developments and policies in other areas than climate change o Large co-benefits between sustainable development, energy efficiency, land use and climate change policies Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S17 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S18 3 17/06/2015 Representative Concentration Pathways Representative Concentration Pathways Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (i.e. not emission scenarios like SRES) adopted by the IPCC in 2014. The RCPs supersede the SRES Scenarios (IPCC, 2000). RCP8.5 The RCPs are used for climate modelling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. RCP6.0 The four RCPs (i.e. RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5) are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (i.e. +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). RCP4.5 RCP2.6 More information on: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97per-cent/2013/aug/30/climate-change-rcp-handy-summary Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S19 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S20 Emissions that comply with the various Representative Concentration Pathways RCPs also provide opportunities for the longer term The 90th and 98th percentiles are indicated by the dark and light grey areas respectively. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web‐apps/tnt/RcpDb Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S22 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S21 The main effects of the different RCPs Circles (●) : Scenario emissions growth over the period in horizontal axis Crosses (X) : Historical emissions growth over the period in horizontal axis Observed emission and the IPCC scenarios Observed emission (X) follow the top of all IPCC scenarios (●) Brysse, Oreskes, O’Reilly & Oppenheimer, 2013. Climate change prediction: Erring on the side of least drama? Global Environmental Change (in press). Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S23 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S24 4 17/06/2015 If you removed the atmosphere's natural Understanding temperature trends greenhouse effect, and everything else stayed the same, Earth's temperature would be: 1. 2. 3. 4. 6 to 11°C warmer 17 to 22°C warmer 6 to 11°C cooler 28 to 33°C cooler 52% 44% 4% 0% 1 2 3 4 The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring physical process that warms the Earth's surface with energy from the atmosphere. Without the effect, Earth's average surface temperature would be well below freezing, i.e. 28 to 33°C cooler. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S25 The six hottest years on record occurred during the last: 67% 1. 100 years 2. 50 years 3. 10 years Where have some of the strongest and earliest impacts of global warming occurred? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 26% 7% 1 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S26 2 3 According to NASA, 2009 was only a fraction of a degree cooler than 2005—the warmest year on record—and was tied with a cluster of other years—1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2007—as the second warmest year since record‐keeping began. January 2000 to December 2009 was the warmest decade on record. 0% 1 0% 2 3 0% 4 0% 5 Some of the fastest‐warming regions on the planet include Alaska, Greenland and Siberia. These Arctic environments are highly sensitive to even small temperature increases, which can melt sea ice, ice sheet and permafrost, and lead to changes in Earth’s reflectance (or “albedo”). Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S27 No place on Earth is colder today than it was 100 years ago. 100% In the tropics In northern latitudes Over the oceans Over mountains global warming is distributed equally all over the planet Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S28 Confusion on data 68% 1. True 2. False 32% 1 2 Although most locations on the planet have recorded increased temperatures since 1900, changes in global ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns have created small‐scale temperature decreases in a few local regions. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S29 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S30 5 17/06/2015 Globally averaged increase in temperature anomaly (oC from 1951-80) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S31 Globally averaged increase in January-February temperature anomaly (oC from 1951-80) The temperature anomalies for different latitudinal bands Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S32 Seasonal temperature anomalies http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/ Increasing temperatures are observed, but what is/are the causes (i.e. explaining the patterns or attribution of causes) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S33 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S34 Does the long-term warming trend continue? The hiatus 1998 - now From: IPCC AR5 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S35 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S36 6 17/06/2015 The climate hiatus Climate sensitivity Climate sensitivity is the equilibrium temperature change in response to changes of the radiative forcing (or CO2 concentrations). The climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state. It can be inferred from palaeo-climate data, observed temperature change and climate models. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total climate sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Some claim that after 1998 (a strong El Niño year) the global mean surface temperatures have not increased anymore. However, IPCC shows that the nineties were warmer than the eighties, and the first decade of this century is warmer again than the nineties. The cost common value ranges from 1.5‐ 4.5oC at a doubling of CO2 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S37 The climate hiatus and natural variability Natural variability is an important aspect of climate change. They include volcanic eruptions, solar variability, dust storms, and ocean circulation (El niño/La nina, PDO, NAO). Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S38 How much of Earth's surface is covered by water? 88% 1. 2. 3. 4. 30% 50% 70% 85% or more 0% 1 2 3 4 Earth is often referred to as the "Water Planet" because you can see water in all three forms as you gaze at Earth from space. As we search for life elsewhere in the cosmos, we look for places that have liquid water, as it seems to be the primary requirement for life as we know it. About 70% of Earth is covered by water, and most of that water (97%) is found in our vast oceans. Grant, F., and R. Stefan. 2011. Global temperature evolution 1979–2010. Environmental Research Letters 6:044022. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S39 What role do the oceans play in the carbon cycle? Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S40 What percentage of heat from global warming has the ocean absorbed in the past 40 years? 48% 1. a major source of carbon dioxide 2. a major absorber of carbon dioxide 3. Both 1 and 2 4. Neither 1 nor 2 8% 4% 59% 37% 11% 1. 2. 3. 4. 11% 35% 56% 93% 30% 11% 4% 0% 1 2 3 4 1 Oceans both release carbon dioxide into the air and absorbs or stores it. One‐third of all carbon dioxide emitted by humanity has been absorbed by the world’s oceans. This is making them more acidic than they have been for tens of millions of years. Warmer oceans are less able to store carbon. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S41 2 3 4 Water resists changes in temperature; it is slow to heat up and slow to cool down. In scientific terms, water has high heat capacity. This means that, so far, Earth's ocean has been able to absorb and hold a majority (i.e. 93%) of the heat from Earth's atmosphere. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S42 7 17/06/2015 Increased heat in de Oceans (1022 Joules) Where is the heat generated by the ‘greenhouse’? Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S43 Effect of natural variability in de Pacific Ocean (IPO) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S44 Bias adjustments to the data Data adjusted for: o lack of data in polar regions, Africa, Asia and Latin America o Climate variability o Ship measurements o Ocean heat uptake Estimated rate of warming: 0.086oC per decade and 0.116oC per decade for 2000-2014 (IPCC: 0.039oC per decade) In periods with a positive (negative) IPO, the temperature trend is positive (negative) Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S45 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S46 To stabilize CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, the emissions should be: 1. The increase in recent CO2 emission must be stopped 2. Current CO2 emissions must reduced by 25% 3. Current CO2 emissions must reduced by 50% 4. CO2 emissions must peak before 2020 and then be reduced by at least 90% before 2050. Understanding how to keep the temperature trends within the internationally accepted 2oC 67% 17% 17% 0% 1 2 3 4 The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring physical process that warms the Earth's surface with energy from the atmosphere. Without the effect, Earth's average surface temperature would be well below freezing, i.e. 28 to 33°C cooler. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S47 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S48 8 17/06/2015 What are the allowed future emissions if all countries agree to the 2o target (i.e. the Copenhagen accords)? What are the current cumulative CO2 emissions in GtC since 1870? 50% Q1: What are the current cumulative CO2 emissions in GtC since 1870? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Q2: What are the allowable future cumulative CO2 emissions in GtC? 150 300 450 600 750 GtC GtC GtC GtC GtC 22% 17% 6% 1 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S49 What are the allowable future cumulative CO2 emissions in GtC to keep temperatures within 2oC? 100 200 300 400 500 600 GtC GtC GtC GtC GtC GtC 2 3 4 5 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S50 The urgency of emission reduction to stay within the 2o target IPCC 2013 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6% What are the allowed future emissions if all countries agree to the 2o target (i.e. the Copenhagen accords)? Maximally allowable emissions are 400 Gt C 28% Current worldwide annual emissions are 10.5 Gt C 20% 16% 12% 12% 12% That is (400/10.5) 38 jaar of the current emissions (with a reduction of 3% per year, still 75 year) 1 2 3 4 5 6 How do we distribute these 400 Gt C between countries, people and generations? 450 Gt C 850 Gt C Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S51 Consider national differences! Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S52 If humans stopped emitting carbon dioxide tomorrow, what would happen to global temperatures? 1. They would immediately begin to drop. 2. They would continue to rise. 3. They would stop rising, flatten out and then drop. When we stop all carbon emissions right now, the hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 that have been pumped into the atmosphere and absorbed by the oceans since the Industrial Revolution would continue to warm the planet. For how long? No one knows, but estimates range from hundreds to thousands of years. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S53 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S54 9 17/06/2015 There can be long time lags between scientific consensus and societal consensus Sherwood, S. (2011). Science controversies past and present. Physics Today, 64, 39‐44. Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S55 Climate policies will get strong support from the Pope this week! Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S56 Conclusions The climate system consist of many interacting components and its precise behaviour is complex and difficult to predict Although new scientific insights continue to emerge, science has developed the necessary skills to understand and predict the system’s course behaviour Human influence is unequivocal (c.f. IPCC) and global mean temperature continues to increase Many societal actors do not accept this robust science because of political, lobbyest and post-modern motivations: “Science has become another opinion” or “Do you believe in climate change?” To limit climate change to 2oC and address other globalchange challenges is not yet impossible but requires political courage, guts and nowadays immediate action Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S57 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S58 Prof. Dr. Rik Leemans S59 10