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Transcript
The Science of Global Warming: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA) University of Washington The Climate Impacts Group Elements of the PNW we study: Water resources Salmon Forests Coasts Goal: make the region more resilient to climate variations and climate change Nature’s “Greenhouse Effect” Is Our Climate Changing? The Pacific Northwest 113 stations with long records Almost every station shows warming Urbanization not a major source of warming 100-year Temperature Trends warming cooling 1,000 Years of Climate Change 150 Years of Climate Change Humans are altering the atmosphere carbon dioxide concentration has increased by ~30% since 1750’s from a very long term perspective, these changes are enormous Whodunit? Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences Will Warming Continue? Future Climate Change Climate is changing, and humans are at least partly responsible. Earth’s average temperature will probably increase by 1.8-6.3°F (1-3.5°C) in the next 100 years. Other climate changes are likely to accompany this warming (precipitation, storm tracks). These changes will have both positive and negative consequences. What Might Climate Change Look Like in the Northwest? We looked at 7 scenarios of future climate from climate models Averages of 7 scenarios, compared to 20th century: 2F warmer by 2020s 4F warmer by 2050s Slightly wetter Winters wetter Summers ??? The Main Impact: Less Snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent Impacts of Hydrologic Changes Less snow, earlier melt means More water in winter Less water in summer Flooding Irrigation Salmon Hydropower Municipal water Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR. Are We Prepared for a Changing Climate? Natural resource management presently assumes Climate does not change But what if it does? Becoming Climatewise Use climate information Requires on-going dialogue between decisionmakers, climate scientists, and the general public Create centralized & adaptable management strategies Learn from the past Becoming Climatewise: Water, Salmon, Forests and Coasts Water: increase supply, decrease demand, increase management flexibility Salmon: promote biodiversity by increasing healthy and connected habitat Forests: maintain a full range of biodiversity Coasts: recognize role of climate variability and change in coastal issues (erosion & flooding) Conclusions Climate change likely to significantly affect the pacific northwest Main impact: reduction in snowcap, summer streamflow Will exacerbate existing stresses in many cases Need to retool institutions and government agencies to respond to climate information and to plan for a changed climate Consider climate a component of any long-term plan
