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PSR
PHYSICIANS FOR SOCIAL
RESPONSIBILITY
DEGREES OF
GER
HEALTH EFFECTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ENERGY
IN NEW YORK
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Robert K. Musil, PhD, MPH, Executive Director and CEO
Susan West Marmagas, MPH, Director, Environment and Health Program
Karen Hopfl-Harris, JD, Legislative Director
Lara Hensley, Program Coordinator
Michelle G. Chuk, MPH, Public Health Program Director
Sadhna Vora, Environment and Health Program Intern
Cindy Parker, MD, MPH, Environmental Health Consultant
New York Advisory Board
Jason K. Babbie, Environmental Policy Analyst, New York Public Interest Research Group
David O. Carpenter, MD, Director, Institute for Health and the Environment,
Professor, Environmental Health and Toxiciology, School of Public Health, University at Albany
Cathey Falvo, MD, Professor, Graduate School of Health Sciences, New York Medical College
Peter M. Iwonowicz, Director of Environmental Health, American Lung Association of New York State
Anne K. Reynolds, MS, Project Director, Environmental Associates
December 2001
This report was prepared by Physicians for Social Responsibility
to alert New York residents to the potential health effects of
climate change and to encourage them to reverse global
warming’s deadly course by reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
This report was made possible by CLEAR THE AIR,
The National Campaign Against Dirty Power.
PHYSICIANS FOR SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY
1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Suite 1012
Washington, DC 20009
tel: (202) 667-4260
fax: (202) 667-4201
website: www.psr.org
The Health Threats of Climate Change in New York
Physicians for Social Responsibility
Executive Summary—New York ................................................................. 6
The Complex Origins of Climate Change................................................... 8
The State of the Science ............................................................................. 9
Global Warming on a Local Level .............................................................. 10
How Could Climate Change Affect the Health
of New York Residents? ..............................................................................
Direct Effects of Heat on Health ..............................................................
Health Effects from Extreme Weather Events .........................................
Health Effects from Worsening Air Quality ............................................
How Climate Change Could Affect Diseases Carried By Insects ..........
How Climate Change Could Affect the Supplies and
Quality of Water and Food ......................................................................
11
11
12
14
22
23
Summary ........................................................................................................ 25
Policy Considerations ........................................................................ 25
What You Can Do ......................................................................................... 27
4
DEGREES OF DANGER
Climate fluctuations have occurred during previous centuries,
but at the dawn of the 20th century, a warming trend started that
now shows no signs of stopping. During the past 100 years, average
global surface temperatures have increased by approximately 1°
Fahrenheit (F) (1). In New York, the average temperature during
the period from 1900 to 1999 was 1° F higher than it was in the
previous century (2). Over the next century, however, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations
sponsored group of more that 2,500 experts from all aspects of the
field of climate change, and the results of the United Kingdom
Hadley Centre’s climate model project that temperatures in New
York could increase 4° F in the winter months and more than that
in the summer months (2). The last 13 years, from 1987 to 2000
have been among the 15 warmest on record (3). Scientists at the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
announced that the winter of 2000 was the warmest winter on
record since the U.S. government began keeping weather statistics
105 years ago (3).
Although uncertainties exist in measuring global warming, an
overwhelming consensus among scientists has emerged during the
last few decades on several key points:
• The increase in temperature is real;
• Human activities—in particular our burning of fossil fuels—are
affecting the climate system (4); and
• Warmer conditions on earth will directly affect our lives, health,
and well-being (5).
This report describes how the changing global climate could affect
human health. Our focus is New York, a state that many consider a
unique case study for increased illness, injury, and mortality due to
the projected changes in temperature and weather.
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
5
Executive Summary—New York
Though climate change happens on a global scale, New York is in a unique
position. It is a state that derives a great deal of its revenue from agriculture
and tourism and has one of the largest elderly populations in the country.
Therefore, New York could potentially be forced to address some significant
problems over the next century in light of climate change projections.
According to U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), average
temperatures in the state of New York could increase by approximately 4º F
during the next century (2). Very recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change revised its previous temperature projections upwards and now
projects average global temperatures to increase by 2.5º to 10.4º F by 2100 (1).
Temperatures over landmasses likely will be higher (1). Revisions in local
temperature projections for New York are not yet available, but it is reasonable
to expect further increases.
With the potential of climate change, New York is at risk for a number of
reasons including significant increases in air pollution and adverse health
effects due to extreme weather, loss of crops and livestock, and increases in
injuries and property damage as a result of sea level rise.
By 2100, sea level at the New York coastline is projected to rise 22 inches
(2). Sea level rise may lead to flooding in low-lying areas, loss of coastal
wetlands, erosion of beaches, and salt water intrusion that contaminates
drinking water sources (2). New York has one of the most urbanized coastlines
in the U.S. Over 20 million people use New York beaches annually (2). Just
protecting the New York coastline from a one- to three-foot rise in sea level is
projected to cost $30–$140 million (2).
Increases in temperature can directly affect health by causing more cases of
heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. At the extreme, heat stroke
can cause death, and heat may exacerbate other medical conditions. The
elderly, infirm, and the poor will likely suffer the most (8). New York has one
of the largest populations of senior citizens of any state. In 2000, more than
2.45 million people older than 65 were living in New York state—about 12%
of the population. By 2025 that number is expected to increase to 3.3 million
and make up more than 16% of the state’s population (9).
The “urban heat island” effect, the meteorological condition that increases
heat exposure for city dwellers, is often seen in large urban areas. This
phenomenon increases the risk of heat-related illnesses for those individuals
who live in metropolitan areas, as there is little opportunity for the dissipation
of extreme heat within the city. As New York City is the second largest city in
the country, there is significant risk for this condition to occur. Additional risks
include prolonged periods of ambient temperatures at or above body
temperatures, high humidity, increased barometric pressure, and reduced
wind (6).
Climate change is also expected to affect people’s exposure to air pollutants.
As climate change affects local and regional weather, air pollutants may be
concentrated in or be blown away from a particular area. Actual amounts of
air pollutants, such as sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), mercury
(Hg), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and particulate matter (PM) are
expected to rise with increased fossil-fuel consumption used to produce power.
6
DEGREES OF DANGER
How Climate Change Could Threaten Health in New York
According to physicians who have studied global
warming and its effects, the most severe health risks in
New York could include the following:
Decreased air quality, causing more frequent
and severe asthma attacks and worsening of
other respiratory and cardiac problems,
could result from
• Increased ozone (smog) levels.
• Greater emissions of nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide,
particulate matter, and other toxic pollutants.
• Increased pollen levels.
• Smoke from forest fires sparked by drought.
Heat-related illness
• The number of heat-related deaths could increase
significantly (2).
• Senior citizens, the very young, and the poor are
at greatest risk of morbidity or even death from
heat stress.
Increased accidents and injuries could result
from
• An increase in extreme weather events.
• A projected increase of 22 inches in sea level at
the New York coastline, which by 2100 would
bring worsening storm surges, flooding, and
coastal erosion (2).
Infectious diseases
• Water used for drinking and recreation can
become contaminated by animal and human
wastes. This is more apt to occur after heavy
rainfall and can lead to bacterial, parasitic, or viral
infections.
• The increased risk of mosquito-borne illnesses could
result.
Food and water supply
• A potential decrease in yields of agricultural
products including corn, silage, and hay. Currently,
the annual revenue from the agricultural industry in
New York is $3 billion (2).
• Warmer temperatures may lead to enhanced
evaporation. When combined with drought, there
may be an increased need to irrigate crops, which
could further compromise water resources.
• Increased temperatures could lead to the intrusion
of salt water into fresh water sources, making it
unsafe to drink.
Increasing construction of power plants, for example, without updating
emissions and efficiency standards, may lead to increased burning of fossil
fuels to power industry, businesses, and homes, and is therefore likely to
increase the amounts of pollutants in the air.
In addition, the diversity of crops and livestock in the state of New York is
influenced by climatic conditions and water availability. As the temperature
increases, production patterns have the potential to shift northward.
Additionally, increases in climate variability could require adaptation of crops
that are able to handle new climatic conditions. Warmer climates and less soil
moisture due to increased evaporation may increase the need for irrigation.
However, these same conditions could decrease water supplies, which are
shared by natural ecosystems, urban populations, and other economic sectors.
Water quality and availability may also be compromised as the climate
changes. We may see reduced availability of water due to increased
evaporation, altered seasonal cycles of runoff, variable river and stream flow,
and greater salinity in the coastal zones due to encroaching seawaters.
Droughts and enhanced soil evaporation from higher temperatures may
require that more water be used for irrigation. If more of New York’s
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
7
precipitation comes in the form of heavy rainfall events, less water is absorbed
into the soil to replenish groundwater sources, and more water becomes
runoff leading to flooding.
Through complex interactions, we may experience further warming and
increases in weather variability (10). There is some evidence to suggest there
may be small increases in the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes, and
considerable evidence suggests there will be more heavy precipitation events,
although there may be significant local variability (10).
Both floods and droughts can result in contaminated water causing waterborne diseases. If contaminated water is used to irrigate or process crops, the
food supply could also be contaminated (11). Cyclospora and Vibrio vulnificus are
two contaminants that are apt to be more of a problem with warmer
temperatures. Cyclospora causes infection associated with fresh produce, and
Vibrio vulnificus causes infection when contaminated shellfish are eaten. Also,
an increase in water temperatures often leads to an increase in the growth of
bacteria and toxic algae (11).
Impacts on farming, fishing, and tourism could affect jobs and income in
the state with far-reaching negative socioeconomic impacts. Such changes may
decrease the number of New York residents that can afford health insurance,
resulting in reduced access to health care. State uninsured rates are already of
concern. In 1999, 16.5% of New York residents were without health
insurance coverage (12). The additional economic burden on existing
coverage, especially Medicare and Medicaid, could be substantial.
New York residents and policy makers need to be keenly aware of the
potential health impacts of global warming. Precautions taken now can help
to lessen or avert potential health problems in the future. The following
sections describe the specific health effects that could result from global
warming over the coming decades. As has been noted, the earth had already
experienced warming over the past 100 years, with further warming due to
rising greenhouse gas concentrations very likely. In some cases, there is a high
level of certainty about the projections; in others, the evidence is less
definitive. As in all science, there are varying degrees of uncertainty about
conclusions and future projections. One must proceed, however, based on the
best evidence available, with future revisions, if dictated, by improvements in
scientific understanding.
Due to the health care infrastructure and still-strong economy, the U.S. has
some ability to adapt to and prepare for these changes. However, only by
taking action now to decrease greenhouse gas emissions can we hope to
stabilize the climate before damage to the planet is beyond repair.
The Complex Origins of Climate Change
Since the end of the last Ice Age, around 10,000 years ago, average
temperatures worldwide have risen only 9º F, mainly due to natural changes
in the geographical distribution of the sun’s energy and in the amounts of
dust, carbon dioxide, and other gases in the atmosphere. In recent years, the
rate of increase in temperature has been accelerating. Some greenhouse gases,
such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and water vapor occur
8
DEGREES OF DANGER
naturally, residing in the atmosphere and insulating Earth. Though a natural
warming effect is crucial to life as we know it, these gases retain heat from
the sun’s rays and keep the earth’s surface about 60º F warmer than it would
be otherwise (13). However, since the late 1700s—the beginning of the
industrial revolution—atmospheric concentrations of some greenhouse gases
have steadily increased.
Carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 31% since the time of the
industrial revolution, and are responsible for more than 60% of the
“enhanced” greenhouse effect. Methane concentrations have more than
doubled and contribute up to 20% of the climate change impacts caused by
greenhouse gases (13). Methane is released from garbage dumps, farm
animals, coal mining, and natural gas producers. Nitrogen oxides result from
burning fossil fuels and have a life span of about 120 years, meaning that
fuels burned now will continue to remain in the atmosphere, potentially
contributing to climate change and health problems, until the year 2120
(7,61). Also since the mid-1700s nitrogen oxide concentrations have risen by
about 13% (7). These increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are believed
to be the major causes of climate change over the past 100 to 200 years.
Human factors are among the most important contributors to the increase
in greenhouse gas concentrations. Fuel burned to run cars and trucks, heat
homes and businesses, and power factories generates approximately 80% of
carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. (13). Deforestation, livestock production,
landfills, industrial production, and mining also can change the levels of
greenhouse gases by increasing emissions or by decreasing the absorption of
gases by plants.
Currently, the U.S. is responsible for releasing about 25% of global energyrelated carbon emissions into the atmosphere each year. In 1999, the U.S.
released 11% more greenhouse gases than in 1990 (14).
The State of the Science
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change distributed a report to
government officials worldwide stating that by 2100, average global surface
temperatures will rise 2.5º to 10.4º F (1.4º to 5.8º C) (1). This is a significantly
greater increase than the 1.8º to 6.2º F increase projected in their 1995 report
(5). This upward revision is due to improved scientific computer modeling.
New studies and better methods for analyzing the data have “led to a better
understanding of climate change” (15).
Studying satellite data, sea surface temperatures, coral reefs, tropical
glaciers, and changes in the Polar regions has led to more conclusive evidence
that human activities are predominantly responsible for climate change. Two
recently released studies lend additional strength to the evidence. An April 6,
2001 report in the journal Science presented data showing a progressive
warming of tropical oceans since at least 1950. The authors, from the National
Center for Atmospheric Research and NOAA, say this supports other evidence
for human-induced climate change (16). The researchers also found a
correlation between the warming oceans and climate changes in Northern
Hemisphere winters during the 50-year study period (16). The warm waters
appear to heat the tropical atmosphere, which influences atmospheric
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
9
FIGURE 1
The Greenhouse Effect
Earth radiates heat
back into space
atmospheric greenhouse gases from natural sources and human activity
greenhouse gases
trap heat
Earth absorbs solar
radiation (heat)
deforestation reduces
absorption
of carbon dioxide
industry releases
carbon dioxide
vehicles emit
carbon dioxide
and nitrogen oxide
burning of fossil
fuels releases
carbon dioxide
agriculture produces
methane and nitrogen
oxide emissions
Source: Adapted from The Impact of Climate Change, United Nations Environment Programme, 1993; Climate Action Network.
pressure patterns and winds over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, shifting
storm paths to the north (16). Yet another study, published the following
week in Science by researchers from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography,
found evidence for “human produced warming in the upper 3,000 meters of
the world’s oceans” (17).
No longer are there questions about whether Earth is warming, that
evidence is now indisputable. The questions are how much and what can be
done to slow the process.
Global Warming on a Local Level
Although the average temperature worldwide is increasing, hence the term
“global warming,” the story becomes more complicated at the local level. One
reason is that a warmer atmosphere can hold greater amounts of water, which
may result in increased precipitation. Another is that warmer air means
changes in wind patterns. The resulting weather changes will vary from place
to place. In general, we can expect more extremes and variability in our
10
DEGREES OF DANGER
weather—more heat waves, more storms, wetter climates in some places,
drier climates in others, and even cooler temperatures in certain areas. Many
scientists therefore, prefer the term “global climate change” to “global
warming.” In this report, we use the two terms more or less interchangeably.
How Could Climate Change
Affect the Health of New York Residents?
Direct Effects of Heat on Health
Heat-related disorders are caused by a reduction in, or collapse of, the
body’s ability to shed heat by circulatory changes and sweating. Such disorders
may also develop due to a chemical (salt) imbalance caused by too much
sweating (8). Heat may lead to severe health problems, such as heat cramps,
exertional heat injury, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke. All of these effects
could increase in New York as climate change causes higher temperatures,
more prolonged heat waves, and warmer nights.
Heat cramps are spasms that primarily affect people who exert themselves
through strenuous work or exercise in a warm environment. Workers on
farms and in construction, people walking to and from shopping and work, as
well as tourists may experience heat cramps as a first sign of heat stress.
Electrolyte imbalances likely cause these cramps, and salt and water
replacement usually relieves them. A more severe condition is exertional heat
injury that commonly occurs among runners who are not properly
conditioned and hydrated. The body can reach 102º to 104º F, with symptoms
that include goose bumps, chills, nausea, vomiting, and unsteady gait (8).
Heat exhaustion or heat collapse is the most common heat-related
condition. It occurs when the cardiovascular system cannot keep up with the
body’s heat demands. An affected person feels dizzy, weak, cold, clammy, and
has ashen skin and dilated pupils. The individual may require hospitalization
(8). When moved to a cool place, victims of heat exhaustion will usually
recover (8).
Heat stroke, the most severe of these conditions, can be fatal. If body
temperature reaches 105º F or above, damage to the kidneys, muscles, heart,
and blood cells may result. Sweating stops altogether. Death due to
complications such as kidney failure can occur immediately or could be
delayed up to several weeks (8).
Heat Stress, Heart Attacks, and Stroke
According to NOAA, about 175 to 200 persons die from heat-related
disorders during an average year in the US. This statistic rises to more than
1,500 persons during heat waves. The exact number of persons seeking
treatment for heat-related disorders is not recorded but reaches into the
thousands (18). A 1997 study by scientists at the University of Delaware
Center for Climatic Research examined mortality and weather data for a series
of cities in the U.S. During oppressive heat wave events, there was a
significant increase in the number of deaths per day for the general
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
11
population, with the elderly being most at risk (19). Some of the deaths are
from heatstroke, but many of the deaths are thought to be from heart attacks
and stroke. When a person overheats, the heart tries to pump harder and
faster to dissipate the heat. Heat stress may also cause the blood to clot more
easily (8).
Urban areas are more likely to warm to a greater degree than surrounding
rural areas due in part to a phenomenon called the “heat island” effect. Urban
residents, therefore are at greater risk of heatstroke and other heat-related
causes of mortality because buildings and roads absorb heat during the day
and release the heat during the night, keeping nighttime temperatures high,
so bodies do not get a chance to cool off and recuperate before the next day’s
high temperatures (19).
As New York City is the second largest city in the country, the residents are
at an even greater risk. The specific meteorological conditions that increase
exposure for city dwellers and inhibit heat dissipation include prolonged
periods of ambient temperatures at or above body temperatures, high
humidity, increased barometric pressure, and reduced wind (6).
The elderly, who make up about 12% of the population of New York, are
particularly vulnerable to severe heat-related illnesses and death for the
following reasons:
• Impaired ability to disperse heat through the body’s physiological
mechanisms.
• Higher likelihood of having underlying diseases.
• Higher likelihood of taking medications that may contribute to heatstroke.
• More problems with mobility.
• Difficulty with temperature perception.
These factors all combine to put New York’s 2.5 million senior citizens at
greater risk of suffering a heat-related illness or death (8). Other groups
particularly vulnerable to heat stress include infants and young children,
people who are socially isolated, anyone with serious cardiac or respiratory
problems, anyone with mobility or other conditions limiting their ability to
care for themselves and regulate their fluid intake, and the poor (8).
Health Effects from Extreme Weather Events
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has determined that
extreme weather events may become more common during the 21st century.
For New York, extreme weather events will be primarily heavy rainfall events
(5). Current EPA information indicates that precipitation is projected to
increase by 10% to 20% over the next 100 years, with slightly less change in
the spring and slightly more in the winter (2).
There is some evidence to suggest that Atlantic hurricanes may increase in
frequency and/or intensity (10), but it is more certain that hurricanes will
bring greater precipitation than has been common during past hurricanes (20).
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has done a great deal of modeling to chart
the possible flooding effects of hurricanes that could hit New York. Scientists
12
DEGREES OF DANGER
believe that mass flooding will be an
inevitable result of an epic hurricane,
even though no substantial
hurricanes have hit New York in the
last 66 years (21). The models
developed by the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers show that during a
category three hurricane, the storm
surge has the potential to cause water
levels to rise to 20 feet at the Statue
of Liberty, 30 feet in Jamaica Bay, and
18 feet at the Rockaways (21), due in
part to the unique geography of New
York and the right angle that it forms
with the New Jersey coast. According
to the New York City Mayor’s Office
of Emergency Management, New
York residents live in “the most
dangerous storm surge area in the nation” (21).
Along much of New York’s coastline, sea level has already risen 10 inches
in the last century. It is projected to rise 22 inches by 2100 (2). New York has
one of the most urbanized coastlines in the U.S. More than 20 million people
use New York’s coastal regions for recreation each year (2). With this
extensive usage, more extreme weather events could have serious effects on
FIGURE 2
Sea-level Rise in the New York City Area
Ma
nh
at
ta
n
Bronx
This map illustrates what sea-level rise could
mean to residents of the New York City
area. Currently, a storm that produces
flooding of areas up to 10 feet above sealevel, shown in black on the map, occurs
about once every 100 years. By 2100, in
the worst-case scenario, storms will flood
these areas nearly every year.
Queens
Brooklyn
d
an
St
at
sl
nI
e
1-10 feet above current sea level
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
Source: Environmental Defense
13
health. Sea level rise can lead to flooding of low-lying areas, contamination of
drinking water, and increase the likelihood of traumatic deaths and injuries as
a result of flooding.
Health Effects from Worsening Air Quality
The Climate Change/Air Quality Link
The link between air quality and climate change is complex. Some of the
greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change are air pollutants with
known negative health effects; others, like carbon dioxide, are not directly
associated with negative health effects but are major contributors to global
climate change.
Climate change is expected to affect air quality in at least five different
ways.
First, pollutant concentrations in the air at a specific location may be
affected by local and regional weather conditions. Still air allows pollutants to
accumulate; wind can blow pollutants to other areas. Climate change may
have significant effects on local weather conditions, which then have
considerable effects on local air quality.
FIGURE 3
Air Conditioning: The Vicious Cycle
D These emissions, in
turn, contribute to
global warming,
making the problem
worse, as well as
increasing smog levels
and exacerbating
respiratory diseases.
C Emissions of other harmful
air pollutants from power
plants also increase.
14
1 As temperatures rise due to
global warming, the demand
for air conditioning increases.
B This increased
demand unfortunately results in
increased energy use
and more greenhouse gas emissions.
DEGREES OF DANGER
The Precautionary Principle
Legislators, physicians, ethicists, and
environmentalists often refer to a term called “the
precautionary principle” when dealing with climate
change issues. The term’s definition states, “When an
activity raises threats of harm to human health or the
environment, precautionary measures should be
taken even if some cause and effect relationships are
not fully established scientifically. In this context, the
proponent of an activity, rather than the public,
should bear the burden of proof” (23).
The precautionary principle has four main
components:
1) Communities have a duty and a right to take
anticipatory action to prevent harm;
2) The burden of proof of the harmlessness of a new
technology process, activity, or chemical is the
responsibility of the proponents, not the public;
3) Communities have an obligation to discuss and to
explore a full range of alternatives to the hazards
posed; and
4) Decisions must be open, informed, and
democratic.
The precautionary principle is already used in
some health-related areas. Immunizations, for
example, are given to protect individuals against the
relatively slim chance of developing a disease. The
person receiving the immunization does not know for
certain that they would have contracted the disease if
the immunization had not been given, but the possible
risk of disease was significant enough to warrant
taking the precautionary step of obtaining the
immunization.
Global warming requires that same sense of
precaution and a willingness to take action. We have
strong evidence that global warming is occurring and
that it is largely the result of human activities, including
the burning of fossil fuels. There is no way to know
exactly how much and in what ways any individual will
be affected. We do know, however, that by doing
nothing and allowing the climate change situation to
worsen, we are at significant risk of multiple, severely
negative consequences. Therefore, applying the
precautionary principle to the issue of climate change
dictates that we take steps to slow global warming by
greatly reducing our consumption of fossil fuels and
enforcing and expanding current regulations to protect
public health and the environment from dirty,
dangerous power plants.
Second, concentrations of man-made pollutants may increase as a result of
increased fossil-fuel use, if power plant emissions and appliance efficiency
standards are not updated. As temperatures get warmer, for example, air
conditioner use will increase. More energy will be needed to power the air
conditioners, and if this energy is derived from fossil fuels, more greenhouse
gases are released into the air leading to a vicious cycle. (See figure 3, page
14.) Air pollutants such as ground-level ozone, carbon monoxide, particulate
matter, nitrogen oxides, mercury, and sulfur dioxides (SOX) all have negative
health effects. Climate change can increase concentrations of these pollutants
as well as compound their effects. Growth and development within
communities will require greater amounts of energy. If that energy is derived
from fossil fuels, emissions of pollutants will continue to increase. Conversely,
improving energy efficiency, elimination of waste, updating emissions
standards, and utilization of renewable energy sources could allow growth and
development without contributing more greenhouse gases into the
environment.
Third, natural (non-man-made) sources of air pollutants may also increase.
For example, higher temperatures cause forests and other sources of natural
volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to emit greater amounts.
Fourth, ground-level ozone is formed from nitrogen oxide (NOX) and VOCs
(both natural and man-made) in the presence of sunlight and heat. As
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
15
temperatures increase, ground-level ozone formation increases. While ozone
in the upper atmosphere, called stratospheric ozone, helps to protect us from
the harmful effects of the sun’s ultraviolet rays, ground-level ozone, called
tropospheric ozone, is very harmful to breathe.
Lastly, airborne allergens, such as pollens, could change in concentration
and distribution. For instance, as global temperatures and carbon dioxide
levels increase, plant growth may also increase, combined with weather
conditions leading to more pollen. Each of these pollutants is discussed in
greater detail in the following section.
Health Effects of Air Pollutants
Higher temperatures cause more VOCs to escape into the air when people
fuel and run their vehicles. With warmer temperatures and sunlight, groundlevel ozone, which is the major component of smog, is formed from nitrogen
oxides and VOCs (11). Ozone is known to make chronic respiratory diseases
like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease much worse. Even
healthy New York residents who breathe ground-level ozone, or smog, can
experience coughing, lung and eye irritation, shortness of breath, and
problems with short-term lung function (24).
Carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, mercury, and nitrogen oxides all have
negative health effects including toxicity, lung irritation, reduced lung
function, disrupted development, and aggravation of existing cardiovascular
diseases. In addition, SoX and NOX can combine with other pollutants in the air
to form particulate matter (24). People who are exposed to particulate matter
can experience exacerbation of chronic respiratory or cardiovascular diseases,
damaged lung tissue, and changes in the body’s ability to fight off diseases that
can lead to premature death and possibly contribute to cancer (24). The
elderly, infants and children, and those with underlying heart or lung disease
are especially vulnerable (24).
Ozone
Ground-level ozone is the major component of what is commonly called
smog, which is the most pervasive outdoor air pollutant in the U.S. Ozone is a
toxic and irritating gas that, even in small amounts, can affect health. Ozone,
or smog, is formed when nitrogen oxides and VOCs emitted from motor
vehicles, power plants, refineries, factories, and even some natural sources,
like plants, are heated by sunlight (25). Smog is at its worst on hot, sunny
days, which are likely to become more numerous with global warming.
The health of New York’s residents is threatened by smog, as evidenced by
state air quality indexes in the years 1997 to 1999 (26). Exposure to elevated
ozone levels can cause severe coughing, shortness of breath, pain when
breathing, lung and eye irritation, and greater susceptibility to respiratory
illnesses such as bronchitis and pneumonia (26). Even healthy adults who
exercise moderately can experience a 15% to 20% reduction in lung function
from exposure to low levels of ozone over several hours. A report issued by
the American Lung Association in 1997 indicated that more than 2.3 million
people were at risk for respiratory problems over the three-year period of
1995 to 1997 in New York state as a result of ozone (27).
16
DEGREES OF DANGER
In 1996, the American Lung Association and the Harvard School of Public
Health released a study titled “Breathless: Air Pollution and Hospital
Admissions/Emergency Room Visits in 13 Cities.” This study linked emergency
room visits and hospital admissions for respiratory conditions to high ozone
levels. The report found that in one summer in New York City, over 100,000
emergency room visits and over 36,000 respiratory hospital admissions
occurred as a result of ozone exposure (28).
Volatile Organic Compounds
Another group of air pollutants consist of VOCs, which are generated by
power plants, municipal waste combustors, motor vehicles, solvent use, and
the chemical and food industries. VOCs include a variety of hazardous air
toxins, including benzene, butanes, and toluene. Some VOCs are toxic, can
combine with nitrogen oxides to form ozone, and have been associated with
cancer, as well as adverse neurological, reproductive, and developmental
effects (29). As temperatures increase, higher levels of VOCs are emitted when
people fuel and operate motor vehicles (24).
Some VOCs are emitted from natural sources like forests. These natural
sources also emit higher levels of VOCs when temperatures increase. For
example, natural emissions nearly double with an increase of 17º F
temperature (30). Thus, climate change is expected to increase levels of both
human-made and natural sources of VOCs, subsequently increasing ozone
levels.
Nitrogen Oxides
Like VOCs, nitrogen oxides play multiple roles in adversely affecting health.
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is toxic, and it also combines with VOCs to form
ozone. In the lungs, NO2 combines with water to form acids that damage the
lung tissue (31). Nitrogen oxides also oxidize in the atmosphere to become
nitric acid, a major component of acid rain (24). Higher temperatures
accelerate this process, increasing the potential for acid raid with climate
change (24). Nitrogen oxides also combine with sulfur dioxide to form
particulates, discussed in more detail in the next section.
Sulfur Dioxides and Particulate Matter
Sulfur dioxides, like nitrogen oxides, are oxidized in the atmosphere to
become acid rain and can combine with nitrogen oxides to form fine particles,
called particulate matter (24). Particulate matter can be emitted directly from
the combustion of fossil fuels, industrial processes, and transportation; created
by the combination of gases, such as nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxides (24);
and formed by dust and smoke from wildfires. Several studies have
documented that both the elderly and children had an increase in hospital
admissions for respiratory and cardiac causes when concentrations of
particulate matter increased (32-37).
One study conducted by a well-known group of researchers from Harvard
discovered that long-term exposure to air pollution significantly increased the
risk of death (32). Another group of Boston researchers discovered that
particulate matter could trigger a heart attack in people who are obese,
inactive, or have a history of heart problems (38). The risk for heart attack
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
17
peaked two hours and again 24 hours after exposure to increased levels of
fine particles, despite the fact that the levels of particulate matter were never
above federal air quality standards (38).
Fine particles are especially dangerous for infants and young children.
Children breathe 50% more air per pound of body weight than adults, thus
taking in more pollutants (39). One study found that infants living in cities
with high levels of fine particles have a 26% increased risk for sudden infant
death syndrome, and infants living in high pollution areas were 40% more
likely to die of respiratory causes (40).
Pollen and Natural Allergens
Natural allergens such as pollens and fungal spores also contribute to air
pollution and may increase with climate change. An increase in temperature
and precipitation could lead to increased fungal growth, which could
exacerbate asthma and other respiratory conditions (41). Some pollenproducing plants, such as birch trees, have been found to increase their
pollen production and the allergen content of the pollen with increasing
temperatures (42). Warmer temperatures may also lengthen the allergy
season (43).
Mercury
Mercury is a known neurotoxin that can inhibit cognitive and motor skill
development in fetuses and infants. A pregnant or nursing mother who eats
fish containing mercury passes the compound across the placenta or through
breast milk. Increased use of coal-burning power plants, which currently emit
high levels of mercury, will also increase mercury deposition into waterways
elevating levels of mercury in fish.
18
DEGREES OF DANGER
The Politics of Power Plants
The impacts that power plant emissions have on New
Yorker’s lives and health as a direct result of poor air
quality and the myriad of impacts resulting from
global warming is indisputable. Furthermore, many
of these effects disproportionately affect low-income
communities of color, creating an environmental
justice issue.
—JASON K. BABBIE, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
ANALYST FOR THE NEW YORK PUBLIC INTEREST
RESEARCH GROUP (NYPIRG)(62)
The electric power industry is one of the
most polluting industries in the world. Sootand smog-forming air pollution, gases that
cause global climate change, and toxic mercury
emissions from power plants seriously threaten
public health and the environment. Old fossil
fuel-burning power plants, built between the
1940s and 1960s, create the vast majority of
power plant air pollution. When Congress
passed the Clean Air Act in 1970, and amended
it in 1977 and 1990, electric industry lobbyists
convinced Congress that older plants would
soon be retired and therefore should be exempt
from strict emissions standards (44).
As a result, these old power plants emit, on
average, four to ten times more air pollution
than new plants. In addition, this loophole
makes it profitable for these old plants to
continue operating. Larger profits are being
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
enjoyed at the expense of polluting our
communities, endangering public health, and
damaging our environment.
Findings released in a report in October of
2000 called “Death, Disease and Dirty Power”
revealed the extremely large share of the toll of
death and disease that can be attributed to fine
particle pollution in the air emitted by power
plants (44). The report shows that over 30,000
deaths each year are attributable to fine particle
pollution from power plants across the country
and exceed the total death toll of such public
health concerns as drunk driving and homicide.
In addition, hundreds of thousands of
Americans suffer from asthma attacks, cardiac
problems, and upper respiratory ailments
associated with power plant pollution. This
report also shows that power plants’ particle
pollution causes more that 603,000 asthma
attacks per year, more than 350,000 of which
could be avoided by cleaning up power plants
to modern standards (44).
In New York, the EPA collects emissions data
on 31 power plants throughout the state. 47%
of these power plants are fired by coal and 52%
of these plants are fired by gas and oil. The
coal-fired power plants produce only one
quarter of the total energy produced by power
plants within the state, though they emit a
majority of the air pollutants. In 1998, the EPA
19
calculated that more than 62% of NOX
emissions, 77% of SOX emissions, and 48% of
CO2 emissions come from coal-fired power
plants in New York (45).
New York’s dirtiest power plants are only
about half as efficient as modern plants, and so
they use twice as much fuel. New York is home
to 21 dirty, outdated power plants taking
advantage of lower emission standards in the
Clean Air Act. They are located throughout the
state from rural to densely populated areas (46).
In the corridor between Buffalo and Rochester,
for example, there were at one time four coalfired power plants. The EPA estimated that in
1997, these four plants alone emitted 58% of
all of the NOX and 52% of all of the SOx that
came from coal-fired power plants in the state
of New York (45). In the past two years, two of
the power plants in the Rochester area have
closed down, however, emissions from
producing power throughout the state have
increased (46).
In July 2001, Clear the Air released a report
entitled, “The Power To Kill: Death and Disease
from Power Plants Charged with Violating the
Clean Air Act.” This report highlighted the
health impacts from the nation’s oldest, dirtiest
power plants that have been able to avoid
modern pollution controls as a result of a
loophole in the Clean Air Act (47). To limit the
effects of this loophole, an enforcement
program called New Source Review was created
to require plant owners to upgrade their
pollution controls to modern standards when
modifications are made. In reality, some power
plant companies have been effectively
circumventing New Source Review regulations
for years. In March 2000, the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation, in
cooperation with the office of New York
Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, issued Notice of
Violations against six facilities in New York state
that have been illegally taking advantage of the
loophole (47). “Power to Kill” also indicates
that the death rate in New York as a result of
these old, dirty power plants is approximately
11 to 20 per 100,000 adults in the state (47).
This is approximately 353 to 534 deaths
annually in New York, of which 285 to 375
could be avoided each year with modern
pollution controls (47).
Ozone readings throughout New York state
violated federal clean air standards 168 times
during the summer of 2001, the second highest
number in the past decade and close to three
times higher than the ozone violations reported
FIGURE 4
Coal-fired Power Plants in New York State
Rochester 3
Rochester 7
Kintigh
C R Huntley
S A Carlson
Jennison
Dunkirk
Danskammer
Lovett
Hickling
Goudey
Greenidge
Milliken
Adapted from U.S. EPA
20
DEGREES OF DANGER
Bringing NY’s dirtiest power plants up to modern
pollution standards would be equal to eliminating
the pollution from 1.8 million cars.
Pollution from
Pollution from
NY’s Diriest = Over 3.5 million
Power Plants
cars
NY’s dirtiest power plants produce 69,000 tons of
nitrogen oxides each year, equal to the nitrogen
oxide emissions from over 3.5 million cars.
Source: Public Interest GRFX
last year (48). New York, and other states
throughout this country, must fight hard to
ensure that lawsuits and regulations against
Midwestern and Southern utilities are required
to mitigate their significant and harmful
emissions levels. New York and other Eastern
states are often the recipients of air pollution
that comes from these Southern and
Midwestern states and if changes are not made
rapidly, air pollution in New York will grow
worse (48).
The Clean Air Task Force also issued a report
in the spring of 2001 that systematically
reviewed the health impacts of 37 power
generating units from the remaining 19 dirtiest
power plants in New York state. This report
compares the actual findings to projected health
impacts from an emissions reduction program
proposed by Governor George Pataki and a set
of Clean Air Task Force recommendations for
pollutant restrictions (49).
This report suggests that in 1999 there were
more than 16,000 asthma attacks, 1,100
emergency room visits, and 150 deaths as a
result of air pollution around these plants. In
addition, there were more than 238,000
restricted activity days reported as a result of
poor air quality because of New York’s dirtiest
power plants. The report shows that just under
75% of the premature mortality attributed to
power plant emissions is due to the secondary
particles formed from emissions of sulfur
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
dioxide, and a little over 15% is from secondary
nitrate particles (49).
This comprehensive report also lays out the
annual costs associated with current power
plant emission standards in the state. The report
finds that more than $612 million is currently
spent annually to cover the cost of health
effects attributable to power plants. The largest
portion of which is the cost to cover mortality
for individuals over the age of 65 (49).
The report also contains a side-by side
comparison of Governor Pataki’s proposal and
the cut levels recommended by the New York
Clean Smokestacks Campaign. On September
14, 1999, Governor Pataki called for a 75%
reduction in NOX and a 50% cut in SO2. In
comparison, the Clean Smokestacks Campaign
has called for bringing old plants up to new
source standards (75% cut in NOX and SO2 and
control for particulate matter) and establishing
limits on mercury and carbon dioxide. The
Pataki plan would be expected to save 50% of
the lives that are lost as a result of power plant
emissions and would also save almost 50% in
health care-related costs. The Campaign plan
would save an additional 25% of the lives lost
as a result of emissions and would cost only
30% of what is currently being spent on health
care costs related to air pollution (49).
Mercury, another primary toxin emitted by
power plants, is also of significant concern.
Facilities that burn fossil fuels or wastes that
contain mercury account for 87% of the total
mercury emissions each year (50). In New York,
20% to 50% of the mercury emissions in the
state are from power plants, and a fish advisory
is in effect for fish species in 25 of the 200
tested waterways across the state (51).
On June 26, 2001, the New York state
assembly approved with overwhelming support
two bills amending the environmental
conservation law for the State of New York
(A.5577-b and A.5203). The state senate must
still review these pieces of legislation; however,
if the bills take effect, they will require
more emissions controls of power
plants for NOX, SOX, and mercury to
protect public health and the
environment.
21
How Climate Change Could Affect Diseases Carried By Insects
Insects, called vectors, carry a variety of diseases. These diseases are
transmitted when the insect bites a human (or another animal), who is
already infected with a disease. The insect itself then becomes infected, and
when it bites another human, the disease may be passed on from the insect to
the human. Malaria and dengue fever are two examples of vector-borne
diseases that may become more of a problem worldwide as average
temperatures increase. Although the mosquitoes that can carry malaria
already live in New York, and every year there are a few cases of malaria
reported in New York, most of these cases are imported by travelers returning
home from regions of the world where malaria is more common (63).
The mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever do not yet live in New York,
but do live in states just to the south such as Maryland. As temperatures
increase, the type of mosquito that carries dengue fever may be able to
migrate farther north into New York. Although there is some risk of these
diseases infecting New Yorkers, many factors affect the likelihood that diseases
like malaria or dengue fever will become a significant problem in the
Northeastern U.S. Higher standards of living, less time spent outdoors in the
daytime when the mosquitoes that carry dengue, for example, are more
active, window and door screens, air conditioning, better mosquito control,
and better public health infrastructure all combine to make large epidemics of
these diseases unlikely even with rising temperatures (52).
West Nile Virus, although new to New York, is probably not related to
climate change. The mosquitoes that can carry West Nile Virus have lived in
New York long before the West Nile Virus was brought to this country. This
disease does illustrate, however, how important it is to strengthen and
maintain the public health infrastructure so that new disease threats can be
readily identified and addressed. In the year 2000, for example, twelve people
were hospitalized with serious nervous system infections caused by West Nile
Virus. Eleven of those individuals
were from New York (64).
New York State has developed a
The Problem with Pesticides
sophisticated
monitoring and tracking
To control insect numbers in New York, state health officials
program to allow the State
conduct aerial spraying where mosquitoes and other insects
Department of Environmental Health
tend to proliferate. A number of pesticides have been used,
including organophosphates (e.g., malathion and fenthion)
to share information with residents
(55). These insecticides can cause harm to humans and the
about the status of West Nile
environment. In 1998 alone, more than 29.4 million pounds
throughout the summer. This is a
were applied by commercial applicators or sold to farmers
centralized database of information
(55).
that can track infected crows, areas
Pesticides can be absorbed into a person’s body by
that have been, or need to be
inhalation, ingestion, and skin penetration (56). Malathion
sprayed, and any recorded human
does not last in the environment as long as other
cases (65). These systems are
organophosphates and is therefore thought to be “safe” by
important because they can help to
some, but in 1975 malathion caused five deaths and 2,800
establish effective infrastructure for
poisonings in Pakistan during spraying for malaria control.
monitoring of other diseases that are
Symptoms can range from headache, nausea, and dizziness,
linked to climate change.
to loss of consciousness, convulsions, and death (56).
22
DEGREES OF DANGER
Even though these diseases are
unlikely to become epidemic in New
York, climate change could lead to
these, and other vector-carried
diseases becoming epidemic in other
parts of the world. When this
happens, the U.S. and New York in
particular because of its role as an
international gateway, could expect
an increase in imported cases (53;54).
How Climate Change Could
Affect the Supplies and
Quality of Water and Food
How Climate Change Could Affect
Water Supplies
How Can Insects be Controlled?
If pesticides are not used, how can the mosquitoes and the
diseases they carry be controlled? In a healthy ecosystem, one
that has not been poisoned by pesticides, there are many
mosquito predators that help to keep the mosquito population
(and other insect pests) under control. Fish, frogs and other
amphibians, beneficial insects such as dragonflies, bats, and
many birds have voracious appetites for mosquitoes and other
insects. One bat can eat 3,000 mosquitoes in a single night
(57 ). Bat populations have declined dramatically, and experts
suspect this is from a combination of factors including poisoning
from pesticides, habitat loss, and destruction of roosting sites
(57 ). Regular “housekeeping” measures can also greatly
reduce mosquito populations. Keeping urban drains clean and
emptying containers of standing water can help to eliminate
mosquito breeding grounds. Naturally occurring bacteria,
which kill mosquito larvae but harm no other living creatures,
can be used in ponds to keep mosquito populations low. People
can also wear protective clothing and use insect repellents to
protect against mosquito bites.
Water resources are affected by
changes in precipitation as well as by
temperature, humidity, wind, and
sunshine. Changes in streamflow tend to magnify changes in precipitation.
Water resources in drier climates tend to be more sensitive to climate changes.
Because evaporation is likely to increase with warmer climate, particularly in
the summer, it could result in lower lake and river levels. In addition, more
intense precipitation could increase flooding. If streamflow and lake levels
drop, groundwater could also be reduced (2).
At this time, scientists are unable to predict whether streamflow in New
York would rise or fall on average. However, there could be higher streamflow
in the winter and lower streamflow in the spring and summer. Changes in the
seasonality of streamflow would make it difficult for water supply systems in
cities like New York to meet current demands reliably. In addition, higher
temperatures and lower flow could reduce water quality in New York’s rivers
and streams (2).
Increased evaporation probably would reduce the average levels of Lakes
Erie and Ontario by up to one foot. These changes could exacerbate water
quality problems in those lakes, as well as in numerous smaller lakes in the
St. Lawrence River basin. Lower water levels in Lakes Erie and Ontario would
reduce flood damages, but shore erosion would increase from wind and
rain (2).
How Climate Change Could Impact Agriculture
Warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation are likely to have effects
on agriculture in New York. Agriculture in New York is a $3 billion a year
industry, two-thirds of which comes from dairy livestock (2). The major crops
in the state are hay, corn, and silage. Whether yields ultimately increase or
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
23
decrease depends on many factors including water availability, changes in
climate variability, and the ability and willingness of farmers to adapt to a
changing environment.
The diversity of crops and livestock in the state of New York is influenced
by climatic conditions and water availability. As the temperature increases,
production patterns could shift northward. Increases in climate variability
could make adaptation by farmers more difficult. Warmer climates and less
soil moisture due to increased evaporation may increase the need for
irrigation. However, these same conditions could decrease water supplies,
which also may be needed by natural ecosystems, urban populations, and
other economic sectors (2).
At this time, scientists cannot fully account for changes in climate
variability, water availability, and farmer’s responses to the changing climate.
Analyses based on changes in average climate suggest that overall U.S. food
production will not be significantly harmed, although there may be significant
local and regional changes (2).
Projected Impact on Forests
Global warming could also alter New York’s forests by influencing biological
diversity and forest growth (2). Changes in precipitation, higher temperatures,
and extreme weather events would lead to changes in species, geographic
extent, and health and productivity. If conditions also become drier, the
current range of forests might be reduced and replaced by grasslands and
pasture. Even a warmer and wetter
climate would lead to changes; trees
FIGURE 5
that are better adapted to warmer
Changes in Forest Composition
conditions, such as Southern pines,
might prevail. Forests could, under
+10°F, +13% Precipitation
Current
these conditions, become denser.
With changes in climate, the extent
of forested areas in New York could
change very little or could decline by
as much as 10% to 25% (2).
The types of trees dominating New
York forests are likely to change. The
predominant maple, beech, and birch
forests found in northern and
western New York would retreat
northward. The brilliant autumn
foliage of the maples eventually
Conifer Forest
Broadleaf Forest
could give way to forests dominated
Savanna/Woodland
Grassland
by oaks, ash, and pines. Across the
state, as much as 50% to 70% of the
maple forests could be lost. As a
Changes in climate could have an impact on the types of trees
result, the character of heavily visited
dominating New York forests. There will be a potential increase in
areas such as the Adirondacks may
savanna/woodland and a decrease in deciduous trees like maple,
birch, and beech.
change (2).
24
DEGREES OF DANGER
The EPA suggests that some of these changes might occur within the next
two generations, particularly if they are accelerated by other stresses such as
fire, pests, and diseases which could be worsened by a warmer, drier
climate (2).
Summary
This report reviews the threats to human health, particularly in New York,
that could result from climate change. The U.S. has a greater ability to adapt
to, and prepare for these changes than other countries due to our health care
infrastructure and relatively strong economy. However, the potential health
effects of climate change are serious and demand attention. Increased levels of
heat, extreme weather events, vector-borne and water-borne diseases, air
pollution, and compromised water supplies affect all Americans. The poor,
elderly, young, and individuals with compromised immune systems will be the
hardest hit.
Many of the effects of climate change will be compounded by other
environmental stresses such as pollution, increasing population, overharvesting of natural resources, and habitat loss. Thus, improving
environmental practices and policies, such as decreasing discharges of
pollutants into the soil, air, and water may help lessen the harmful effects of
climate change on fragile ecosystems.
We must act now to slow and eventually reverse climate change by
significantly reducing fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition, we need to invest in strategies that will help us to prepare for
what may come. It is essential that we formulate and implement plans to
improve our public health infrastructure, including disease surveillance and
emergency response capabilities. Continued research is needed to better
understand the relationships among climate change, the health of ecosystems,
and the health of the public.
Policy Considerations
The state of New York is committed to reducing emissions from coal-fired
power plants and ultimately improving the health of New Yorkers, protecting
the environment, reducing the impacts of global warming, and relying less on
fossil fuels and more on innovative technologies to provide the energy that is
needed. In September 1999, Governor George Pataki promised that New York
would issue regulations to control nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide
emissions from power plants. In early June 2001, the Governor ordered that
state buildings ensure that by the year 2010, at least 20% of their electricity is
from renewable energy sources. In addition, the Governor also appointed a
task force of industry leaders, state officials, and environmentalists to examine
three primary issues:
• Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in New York;
• Reduction of global warming; and
• Assessment of federal emission standards for older power plants (58).
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
25
Since 1999, New York City has begun working with a tool for fighting
future environmental challenges. In a yet unreleased study by Cynthia
Rosenzweig of the NASA Goddard Space Institute, recommendations are
made that will help scientists and local government leaders make a plan to
moderate future climate change in cities of populations of more than one
million people (59).
According to Rosenzweig’s study, there are three interacting elements of
New York City that actually react and respond to climate variability and
change: people (socio-demographic conditions), place (physical systems), and
pulse (decision-making and economic activities). To understand these
elements, five sector studies are projecting climate change impacts: Coastal
Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decisionmaking. Each study is assessing potential climate change impacts through the
analysis of the current conditions in the region, lessons and evidence derived
from past climate variability, scenario predictions, critical issues, equity of
impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations (60).
This study will help New York City and other large cities learn better how
to handle environmental concerns like water supply, public health, coastal
erosion, and wetlands.
New York is one of the few states in the nation, however, that is starting to
take action. Suffolk County is one of the first municipalities in the country to
pass legislation that limits emissions of carbon dioxide from power plants. The
legislature unanimously passed the bill, which was signed by the County
Executive. Taking effect in March 2002, Suffolk County will regulate the
emissions rate of carbon dioxide from power generators. The county backed
this legislation because as this report has illustrated, Long Island has a great
deal at stake in combating climate change. Long Island is a coastal region that
will be detrimentally affected by rising sea level. The vote and passage of
legislation sends a message that states and localities cannot wait for
Washington, DC to make decisions about climate change, when climate
change is impacting our states now.
It is important to track and follow local, state, and federal legislation on
issues of climate change, power plant emissions, air pollution, and energy.
These issues are currently framing the debate across the country as to how to
promote good public health in the current political climate. Immediate action
must be taken, and diligent attention must be paid to cleaning up our air,
reducing the levels of CO2 in our environment that are leading to global
warming, and requiring that politicians and key decision makers do
everything in their power to assist in the preservation and improvement of
human health and the environment.
26
DEGREES OF DANGER
What You Can Do
What can individual New Yorkers do to reverse climate change and
effectively work to protect the Clean Air Act? The number one priority is to
lower the use of fossil fuels. Local, state, and federal government
representatives should be strongly encouraged to support smart energy
policies and the development and use of new technologies to reduce fossil fuel
consumption and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
As an added benefit, the energy conservation techniques recommended
here to combat global warming are very similar to those desperately needed to
cut air pollution. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through sound energy
policies is a win-win scenario because we will not only prevent the associated
health effects of global climate change but also reduce the current threats to
health from air pollution. In addition, these policies can increase our standard
of living while reducing economic costs. Our quality of life in the future
depends upon the actions that we take today.
There is a lot that you can do in New York, starting now, to combat global
climate change and bring down consumption of fossil fuels:
1
Contact your local representatives, government officials, and mayor.
Find out if your city or county has a plan to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions and, if not, encourage them to consider it. Demand userfriendly public transportation. Support efforts to refurbish old wastewater
infrastructure in the state. Water systems in New York are vulnerable to
contamination from pollutants and pathogens in untreated sewer water
during flood events. Urge officials to continue to update sewer and flood
water lines to avoid such problems in the future.
2
Contact your state representatives and Governor Pataki. Information
regarding your state representatives can be found in the blue pages of
your phone book. Encourage them to develop and implement state
carbon dioxide emission reduction plans and to create incentives for citizens
and businesses to make more efficient energy choices. For example, provide
tax incentives for families that purchase newer cars with better mileage. Ask
Governor Pataki to continue to support energy efficiency regulations, and
encourage him to support shutting down or cleaning up old, dirty power
plants, and to discourage the use and development of nuclear power.
3
Contact your members of Congress and President Bush. Encourage
them to adopt a balanced energy policy that promotes efficiency and
use of clean, renewable sources of power. Specifically ask them to fund
research and implementation of new, next-generation energy technologies,
such as solar and wind power. This will not only give the oil supply that we
have a longer life, but will also reduce the unhealthy pollution associated with
both the burning and recovery of fossil fuels.
• Clean Up Power Plants! Require that the power plants that were
grandfathered under the Clean Air Act be cleaned up or shut down now.
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
27
• Support “four-pollutant” legislation regulating carbon dioxide, nitrogen
oxides, sulfur dioxides, and mercury.
• Support an increase in Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, or
minimum miles per gallon standards, for cars, sport utility vehicles, and
light trucks.
• Support international agreements to lower global carbon emissions, and
take responsibility for our disproportionate contribution of greenhouse gas
emissions to the world’s climate change problem.
4
Get your own house and business office in order. Use energy-efficient
light bulbs such as compact fluorescents. Install a solar system to help
provide your hot water (carbon dioxide reduction 720 pounds per
year). Recycle all of your waste newsprint, cardboard, office paper, glass,
plastic, and metal (carbon dioxide reduction: 2,480 pounds per year). Lower
your thermostat in the winter and raise it in the summer, or use a thermostat
that shuts off when you are not home, thereby reducing the demand for
electricity and the burning of fossil fuels. When purchasing a home or
remodeling, request efficient insulation, and energy efficient appliances,
refrigerators, and water heaters.
Be conscious of how your actions create carbon emissions. Americans’ love
for automobiles contributes 30% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. As the
population increases, so does pollution from cars. Do your part by carpooling
and leaving your car at home as much as possible. When you do have to
drive, keep your car’s tires properly inflated at all times. This ensures the
maximum efficiency of your car. If your car’s tires are under-inflated by just
four pounds, it could cost up to a half-mile per gallon of gasoline. When
purchasing a new car, buy the most fuel-efficient, super clean vehicle that you
can afford. At a website launched by the EPA and the U.S. Department of
Energy (http://www.fueleconomy.gov) you can do a side-by-side comparison
and select the right car for your needs.
5
Urge the businesses you patronize to become energy-efficient. U.S.
businesses spend about $100 billion on energy each year to operate
commercial and industrial buildings. By using energy-efficient products
and procedures, organizations could reduce their energy use by 35% or $35
billion nationally. Numerous programs are now in place to help businesses
change their energy use strategies and save money at the same time.
Put your favorite business in touch with EPA’s Energy Star buildings program
(1-800-STAR-YES, http://www.epa.gov/greenlights).
6
Work with local groups and chapters of national organizations to
promote awareness of global climate change and related issues in New
York. These include:
• New York Public Interest Research Group: 9 Murray Street, New York, New
York, 10007; (212) 349-6460; http://www.nypirg.org.
• Sierra Club New York Office: http://newyork.sierraclub.org/.
28
DEGREES OF DANGER
• New York Conservation Fund: http://www.nylcv.org/Programs/NYCEF/
nyceffactf.htm
• Hudson River Foundation: 40 West 20th Street, 9th Floor New York,
NY 10011; (212) 924-8290; http://www.hudsonriver.org.
• The Council on the Environment of New York City: 51 Chambers Street,
Room 228, New York, New York 10007; (212) 788-7900; http://
www.cenyc.org.
• Environmental Advocates: 353 Hamilton Street, Albany, New York, 12210;
800-SAVE-NYS or 518-462-5526, fax: 518-427-0381; http://
www.envadvocates.org.
• American Lung Association New York: 432 Park Avenue South, 8th Floor,
New York, New York 10016; (212) 889-3370; http://www.lungusa.org/
newyork/.
• New York City Environmental Justice Alliance: 115 West 30th Street,
Room 709, New York NY 10001; (212) 239-8882; http://www.nyceja.org.
• New York Online Access to Health: Environmental Health Page;
http://www.noah-health.org/english/illness/environment/environ.html.
• Association for Energy Affordability: 505 Eighth Avenue, Suite 1801,
New York, New York 10018; (212) 279-3902; http://www.aeanyc.org/.
• Center for Environmental Information: 55 St. Paul Street, Rochester,
NY 14604; (716) 262-2870; http://www.rochesterenvironment.org/.
• New York League of Conservation Voters: 29 Broadway, Suite 1100,
New York, NY 10006; (212)361-6350; http://www.nylcv.org/.
• Save Our Future Action Coalition: Box 776, Vails Gate, NY 12584;
http://www.sofac.pair.com/. (914) 464-1702.
Health Effects of Climate Change and Energy in New York
29
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