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Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities for Small Islands States Jean-Pascal van Ypersele IPCC Vice-Chair, Candidate Chair Twitter: @JPvanYpersele Belgian Embassy in Canberra, Australia, 11 August 2015 Thanks to the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO) and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and to my team at the Université catholique de Louvain for their support Why the IPCC ? Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 to provide policy-‐makers with an objec<ve source of informa<on about • causes of climate change, • poten<al environmental and socio-‐economic impacts, • possible response op<ons (adapta<on & mi<ga<on). WMO=World Meteorological Organiza<on UNEP= United Na<ons Environment Programme What is happening in the climate system? What are the risks? What can be done? Key messages from IPCC AR5 ! ! ! ! Human influence on the climate system is clear Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems While climate change is a threat to sustainable development, there are many opportunities to integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit of other societal objectives Humanity has the means to limit climate change and build a more sustainable and resilient future IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report 2013 +40% (Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA) The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes! 6 '4,52%7$5-&$51-&50#$=90&-85#$ •! Tropics!to!the!poles •! On!all!continents!and!in!the!ocean •! Affecting!rich!and!poor!countries (but the poor are more vulnerable everywhere) AR5 WGII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration! Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6 One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5 AR5, chapter 12. WGI! (IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.7a) Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains the global surface temperature increase above the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at least 66% probability 18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum) With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions. Today, with +4-5°C globally With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions. © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.9 RCP2.6 (2081-2100), likely range: RCP8.5 (in 2100), likely range: 26 to 55 cm 52 to 98 cm Figure SPM.7c All Figures © IPCC 2013 Global ocean surface pH "#$%$&#'($)*+!(,-!.)/-0!(,-!123!(,-!4)0-!'#$%! Precipita<on change Northern Tropical Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Precipita<on change Equatorial Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Precipita<on change Southern Tropical Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Potential Impacts of Climate Change 5))%!'*%!/'(-0!6,)0('7-6! 8*#0-'6-%!1)9-0(:! 8*#0-'6-%!%$61.'#-4-*(! );!1-)1.-! <)'6('.!=))%$*7! AR5 WGII SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC AR5 cycle: coastal areas & small islands WGI •! Ocean Observations (Ch. 3), sea-level change (Ch.13)… •! FAQs (13.1: regional sea-level…) and TFEs (2: SLR uncertainties, 5: irreversibility…) WGII •! Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas (Ch.5) •! Regional part: Small Islands (Ch.29), Oceans (Ch.30) •! Cross-chapter boxes : coral reefs, ocean acidification, tropical cyclone resilience, upwelling ecosystems + SRREN (Wind energy, ocean energy), SREX Risks from sea-level rise Coastal and low-lying areas will experience more flooding and coastal erosion Local sea-level rise can differ substantially from global, due to e.g. subsidence, glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment transport, coastal development Population exposed and pressure from human activities will increase significantly in the coming decades due to population growth, economic development, and urbanization !"#$%&$#$'()*+,-$ Sea-level rise: costs and adaptation The relative costs of coastal adaptation vary strongly among and within regions and countries for the 21st century For the 21st century, the benefits of protecting against increased coastal flooding and land loss due to submergence and erosion at the global scale are larger than the social and economic costs of inaction (limited evidence, high agreement) Some low-lying developing countries and small island states are expected to face very high impacts that, in some cases, could have associated damage and adaptation costs of several percentage points of GDP !"#$./00$*12$345$!"#$%&$#$()*+,$ Small islands: risks Projected increases < 2100 + extreme sea level events -> severe sea flood and erosion risks for low-lying coastal areas and atoll islands seawater will degrade fresh groundwater resources coral reef ecosystem degradation will negatively impact coastal protection, subsistence fisheries, and tourism, thus affecting livelihoods !"#$%&$67$'()*+,-$ Widespread impacts attributed to climate change based on the available scientific literature since literature since the AR4: SMALL ISLANDS IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 4 ADAPTATION IS ALREADY OCCURRING Small islands: adaptation Adaptation generates larger benefit to small islands when delivered in conjunction with other development activities, such as disaster risk reduction and community-based approaches to development •! address current social, economic, environmental issues, •! raise awareness, communicate future risks to local communities Adaptation and mitigation on small islands are not always trade-offs - they can be complementary •! examples include energy supply, tourism infrastructure, coastal wetland services Appropriate assistance from the international community may help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ommunity-based adaptation measures (examples from WGII ch5 table 5.4) Impact Measures Increased salinity Saline-tolerant crop cultivation Flooding/ inundation Disaster management committees (discuss preparedness and response) Early flood warning systems Cyclones/ storm surges Low-cost retrofitting to strengthen household structures, Plantation of specific fruit trees around homestead area Sea level rise Farmers educated on comprehensive risk insurance Multi-coastal impacts Integrating climate change into education Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) plan Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example): cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning Sources: IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5, H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62 :&@E@R$SD$J&@DHEB4$TC@HBU/BD,34$"B5$8D@HH$'6V?V-9$BN3C+3EG@4$@A$E&B$$ 8@,,+4GEF$W3HB5$SGH3HEBD$1DB:3DB54BHH$1D@LD3,,B$D+4$KF$E&B$"B5$8D@HH$G4?77XP6VV6$ Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction through adaptation IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8 Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction: Small Islands J)66-6! K$6F!()!! #)'6('.!'0-'6! IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 8 RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS !"#9$./009$W@)$*12;?$YGL+DB$?$$ © IPCC 2013 Fig. SPM.10 Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. O%5:/1/H5<+9$+>$5%4+7,"&-/2$2+92&9%-5<+97$-&N=/-&7$4+./9?$585#$>-+4$%"&$ :57&1/9&$P$-&?5-01&77$+>$%"&$4/<?5<+9$?+51D$ EFG#% H/0*4%1)%I76>9*%JCK% IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 WGIII SPM The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C Amount Remaining: 1000 Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO2 GtCO2 Amount Used 1870-2011: 1900 GtCO2 NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 WGI SPM Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage Lifestyle and behavioural changes IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 WGIII SPM Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C (over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ? •! Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically and economically feasible to keep the warming below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100. •! Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and reach zero or negative emissions by 2100. &19L7)6%'91>?%!!!%;1)-973><1)%-1%-M*% !"##%I7NM%(00*008*)-%5*?19-% •! Sustainable development and equity provide a basis for assessing climate policies and highlight the need for addressing the risks of climate change •! Issues of equity, justice, and fairness arise with respect to mitigation and adaptation AR5, WGIII, SPM Equity is an integral dimension of Sustainable development (high confidence) -! Intergenerational equity underlies the concept of sustainability; -! Intragenerational equity is also often considered an intrinsic component of SD. -! In the particular context of international climate policy discussions, several arguments support giving equity an important role: •! a moral justification that draws upon ethical principles; •! a legal justification that appeals to existing treaty commitments …; •! and an effectiveness justification that argues that a fair arrangement is more likely to be agreed internationally ... AR5, WGIII, Ch.4, p.4 The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes (and increase prospects for effective adaptation) With substantial mitigation Without additional mitigation Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100) AR5 WGI SPM IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Useful links: !! www.ipcc.ch : IPCC (reports and videos) !! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and my platform as candidate IPCC Chair !! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele and @IPCC_CH Jean-Pascal van Ypersele ([email protected])