Download Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities for Small Islands

Climate Change Challenges and
Opportunities for Small Islands States
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
IPCC Vice-Chair, Candidate Chair
Twitter: @JPvanYpersele
Belgian Embassy in Canberra, Australia, 11 August 2015
Thanks to the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (BELSPO)
and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and to my team at the
Université catholique de Louvain for their support
Why the IPCC ? Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988
to provide policy-­‐makers with an objec<ve source of informa<on about •  causes of climate change, •  poten<al environmental and socio-­‐economic impacts, •  possible response op<ons (adapta<on & mi<ga<on). WMO=World Meteorological Organiza<on UNEP= United Na<ons Environment Programme What is happening in the
climate system?
What are the risks?
What can be done?
Key messages from IPCC AR5
!
!
!
!
Human influence on the climate system is clear
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will
increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and
irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems
While climate change is a threat to sustainable
development, there are many opportunities to
integrate mitigation, adaptation, and the pursuit
of other societal objectives
Humanity has the means to limit climate
change and build a more sustainable and
resilient future
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
2013
+40%
(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy
precipitation have become more common
There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes!
6
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•! Tropics!to!the!poles
•! On!all!continents!and!in!the!ocean
•! Affecting!rich!and!poor!countries (but the
poor are more vulnerable everywhere)
AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
RCP Scenarios: Atmospheric CO2 concentration!
Three stabilisation scenarios: RCP 2.6 to 6
One Business-as-usual scenario: RCP 8.5
AR5, chapter 12. WGI!
(IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.7a)
Only the lowest (RCP2.6) scenario maintains
the global surface temperature increase above
the pre-industrial level to less than 2°C with at
least 66% probability
18-20000 years ago (Last Glacial Maximum)
With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
Today, with +4-5°C globally
With permission from Dr. S. Joussaume, in « Climat d’hier à demain », CNRS éditions.
© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.9
RCP2.6 (2081-2100), likely range:
RCP8.5 (in 2100), likely range:
26 to 55 cm
52 to 98 cm
Figure SPM.7c
All Figures © IPCC 2013
Global ocean surface pH
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Precipita<on change Northern Tropical Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Precipita<on change Equatorial Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Precipita<on change Southern Tropical Pacific (annual) IPCC, WGI, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projec<ons Supplementary Material RCP8.5 Potential Impacts of Climate Change
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AR5 WGII SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC AR5 cycle:
coastal areas & small islands
WGI
•! Ocean Observations (Ch. 3), sea-level change (Ch.13)…
•! FAQs (13.1: regional sea-level…)
and TFEs (2: SLR uncertainties, 5: irreversibility…)
WGII
•! Coastal Systems and Low-Lying Areas (Ch.5)
•! Regional part: Small Islands (Ch.29), Oceans (Ch.30)
•! Cross-chapter boxes : coral reefs, ocean acidification, tropical
cyclone resilience, upwelling ecosystems
+ SRREN (Wind energy, ocean energy), SREX
Risks from sea-level rise
Coastal and low-lying areas will experience more flooding
and coastal erosion
Local sea-level rise can differ substantially from global,
due to e.g. subsidence, glacial isostatic adjustment,
sediment transport, coastal development
Population exposed and pressure from human activities
will increase significantly in the coming decades due to
population growth, economic development, and
urbanization
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Sea-level rise: costs and adaptation
The relative costs of coastal adaptation vary strongly
among and within regions and countries for the 21st
century
For the 21st century, the benefits of protecting against
increased coastal flooding and land loss due to
submergence and erosion at the global scale are larger
than the social and economic costs of inaction
(limited evidence, high agreement)
Some low-lying developing countries and small island
states are expected to face very high impacts that, in
some cases, could have associated damage and
adaptation costs of several percentage points of GDP
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Small islands: risks
Projected increases < 2100 + extreme sea level events
-> severe sea flood and erosion risks for low-lying
coastal areas and atoll islands
seawater will degrade fresh groundwater resources
coral reef ecosystem degradation will negatively impact
coastal protection, subsistence fisheries, and tourism,
thus affecting livelihoods
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Widespread impacts attributed to climate change
based on the available scientific literature since
literature since the AR4: SMALL ISLANDS
IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 4
ADAPTATION IS
ALREADY OCCURRING
Small islands: adaptation
Adaptation generates larger benefit to small islands when
delivered in conjunction with other development
activities,
such as disaster risk reduction and community-based
approaches to development
•! address current social, economic, environmental issues,
•! raise awareness, communicate future risks to local communities
Adaptation and mitigation on small islands are not always
trade-offs - they can be complementary
•! examples include energy supply, tourism infrastructure, coastal
wetland services
Appropriate assistance from the international community
may help
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Community-based adaptation measures
(examples from WGII ch5 table 5.4)
Impact
Measures
Increased salinity
Saline-tolerant crop cultivation
Flooding/ inundation
Disaster management committees
(discuss preparedness and response)
Early flood warning systems
Cyclones/ storm surges
Low-cost retrofitting to strengthen household structures,
Plantation of specific fruit trees around homestead area
Sea level rise
Farmers educated on comprehensive risk insurance
Multi-coastal impacts
Integrating climate change into education
Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) plan
Flood risk adaptation in Bangladesh (example):
cyclone shelters, awareness raising, forecasting and warning
Sources:
IPCC SREX (Special Report on extreme events…) and IPCC AR5,
H Brammer, Clim Risk Management 2014 p.51-62
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Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction
through adaptation
IPCC, AR5, SPM, Figure SPM.8
Regional key risks and potential for risk reduction:
Small Islands
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IPCC, AR5, SYR, SPM 8
RISKS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASE
WITH CONTINUED
HIGH EMISSIONS
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© IPCC 2013
Fig. SPM.10
Limiting climate change will require substantial and
sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 WGIII SPM
The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of the carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal is already used
NB: this is with a probability greater than 66% to stay below 2°C
Amount
Remaining:
1000
Total Carbon
Budget:
2900
GtCO2
GtCO2
Amount Used
1870-2011:
1900
GtCO2
NB: Emissions in 2011: 38 GtCO2/yr
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 WGI SPM
Mitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon
energy
• Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks
• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
AR5 WGIII SPM
Can temperature rise still be kept below 1.5 or 2°C
(over the 21st century) compared to pre-industrial ?
•! Many scenario studies confirm that it is technically
and economically feasible to keep the warming
below 2°C, with more than 66% probability (”likely
chance”). This would imply limiting atmospheric
concentrations to 450 ppm CO2-eq by 2100.
•! Such scenarios for an above 66% chance of staying
below 2°C imply reducing by 40 to 70% global GHG
emissions compared to 2010 by mid-century, and
reach zero or negative emissions by 2100.
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•! Sustainable development and
equity provide a basis for
assessing climate policies and
highlight the need for addressing
the risks of climate change
•! Issues of equity, justice, and
fairness arise with respect to
mitigation and adaptation
AR5, WGIII, SPM
Equity is an integral dimension
of Sustainable development
(high confidence)
-! Intergenerational equity underlies the concept of sustainability;
-! Intragenerational equity is also often considered an intrinsic
component of SD.
-! In the particular context of international climate policy
discussions, several arguments support giving equity an
important role:
•! a moral justification that draws upon ethical principles;
•! a legal justification that appeals to existing treaty
commitments …;
•! and an effectiveness justification that argues that a fair
arrangement is more likely to be agreed internationally ...
AR5, WGIII, Ch.4, p.4
The Choices Humanity Makes Will Create Different Outcomes
(and increase prospects for effective adaptation)
With substantial
mitigation
Without additional
mitigation
Change in average surface temperature (1986–2005 to 2081–2100)
AR5 WGI SPM
IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Useful links:
!! www.ipcc.ch
: IPCC (reports and videos)
!! www.climate.be/vanyp : my slides and my
platform as candidate IPCC Chair
!! On Twitter: @JPvanYpersele
and @IPCC_CH
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
([email protected])