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Climate Risk Scoping Study: Assessing Climate Risks to Low Carbon Urban Projects Sub-study of the Low Carbon Cities Project: Establishment of a low carbon city and green growth strategy for Greater Kuala Lumpur 1 Climate Risk Scoping Study: Assessing Climate Risks To Low Carbon Urban Projects Sub-study of the Low Carbon Cities Project: Establishment of a low carbon city and green growth strategy for Greater Kuala Lumpur Authors: Sarah Opitz-Stapleton Maizura Ismail Mathias Varming Sayers and Partners Study conducted for: Carbon Trust, UK Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia February 2017 Acknowledgements: This study was supported by a grant from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. Cover photo: Shutterstock, Patrick Foto ©2017 The views and opinions expressed in this report belong to the authors alone. Executive Summary Countries like Malaysia are experiencing rapid urbanisation. This growth affords both mitigation and adaptation opportunities for the municipal authorities in the Greater Kuala Lumpur (Greater KL) area if existing and new climate risks are recognised and incorporated into urban development and planning. Urban areas, like the municipalities in Greater KL, are taking important steps to reduce the extent of climate change through low carbon, energy efficient initiatives. Some of these activities may include: installation of solar photovoltaics on municipal buildings; expansion of urban green spaces; retrofitting building skins; and installing electric vehicle infrastructure. This sub-study investigates existing and potential climate risks to low carbon urban development, particularly buildings, in Greater KL as part of a broader initiative. Carbon Trust is working with the study municipalities of Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur (DBKL), Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya (MPAJ) and Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya (MBPJ). Climate risks to infrastructure result from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure and the type and severity of weather and climate-related hazard. In the Greater KL region, buildings are exposed to flash flooding, heat waves, haze and landslides. Building vulnerability is due to policies – land use zoning, building codes, etc. - and their enforcement, coordination between responsible agencies, construction quality, quality of building materials and maintenance. The weather and climate-related hazards to which Greater KL infrastructure are exposed include: • • • Heat waves and air pollution (haze) that are exacerbated by the urban heat island effects of the conurbation. Air pollution corrodes building façades and exposed structural elements. Excessive heat conditions increase building energy usage to keep occupants comfortable. Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of heat waves and lead to overall higher daytime and night time temperatures. Wind loads can place significant deformation forces on multi-storied buildings, as well as causing increased use of resources for building replacement costs. Thunderstorms may become stronger due to climate change, and the wind loads placed on infrastructure may increase. The intensity (amount of rain falling in a particular period of time) of heavy rainstorms in Greater KL has been increasing, and is likely to continue to increase due to climate change. Heavy rain can permeate building materials and cause damage from the top and sides, while flash floods triggered by the storms can erode foundations and damage structures and internal assets. Buildings are often the first line of defense protecting people and assets from hazard impacts. Resilient infrastructure is robust and functional during a hazard event, is not ideally not located within hazard prone areas or adopts more stringent building design standards if it must be, and sustains minimal damage so that repairs are also minimal. The integration of multi-hazard resilient design principles with green building principles in an combination design and building framework and policies that mainstream climate change adaptation are important in realising resilient, low carbon urban areas. All three study municipalities include hazard prone areas such as steep slopes, increasing area of impervious surfaces funnelling runoff into low-lying terrain, and areas adjacent to rivers – not to mention undergoing rapid population growth and urban expansion. Some of the measures that could build resilience to weather and climate-related hazards, such as building codes and zoning regulations may be less effective if they are not regularly updated to incorporate the latest climate change projections, as well as other changes including shifts to societal structures, demography, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality. Policy tools for urban and country planning should incorporate climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management considerations and good practice. Decision making gaps between policy formulation at the national level and implementation at the local levels, as well as knowledge gap between academia, decision makers and the public need to be closed in order to allow for municipalities in Greater KL to prepare for climate change. i Acronyms ACEM – Associations of Consulting Engineers, Malaysia ASHRAE – American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers BREEAM – Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method CCA – climate change adaptation CCM – climate change mitigation CEDMHA – Center for Excellence in Disaster Management COP – Conference of the Parties CORDEX – Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment CMIP5 – Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 CMP – Conservation Management Plan DBKL – Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur DID – Department of Irrigation and Drainage DRM – disaster risk management DSF – double skin façade EE – energy efficiency EPPs – Entry Point Projects EPU – Economic Planning Unit ESCP – Erosion and Sediment Control Plan ETP – Economic Transformation Programme EV – electric vehicle FEMA – USA’s Federal Emergency Management Agency GBI – Green Building Index GCM – general circulation model GHG – greenhouse gas Greater KL – Greater Kuala Lumpur conurbation GNI – gross national income GPI – global positioning index GtCO2 – Gigatonnes Carbon Dioxide INDC – Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ISMS – Information Security Management System JPBD – Department of Town and Country Planning KeTTHA – Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water KMNI – Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut KPI – key performance indicator KULSIS – Kuala Lumpur Hazard and Risk Map Application System LA – Local Authority LEDs – light-emitting diodes Low-E – low emissivity LP – local plan ii MBPJ – Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya MOSTE – Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment MPAJ – Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya MPPJ – Majlis Perbandaran Petaling Jaya MSMA – Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia MTCO2 – metric tonnes carbon dioxide MW – megawatt NAHRIM – National Hydraulic Research Institute NAMA – Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Activities NADMA – National Disaster Management Agency NKEA – National Key Economic Areas NOx – nitrogen oxides NPP – National Physical Plan NRE – Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment photovoltaic PAM – Malaysian Institute of Architects Perhilitan – Department of Wildlife and National Parks Peninsular Malaysia PV – photovoltaic RE – renewable energy RCM – regional circulation model RCP – representative concentration pathway RTPJ – Petaling Jaya Local Plan SEACLID – Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling SEDA – Sustainable Energy Development Authority SMART – Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel SOPs – standard operating procedures SP – structure plan SPAD – Land Public Transport Commission SPM – Summary for Policy Makers SSP – Selangor Structural Plan UNDP-GEF – United Nations Development Programme Global Environmental Finance UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNISDR – United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UHI – urban heat island WEF – World Economic Forum iii Definitions Report terms use the definitions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II Summary for Policymakers (IPCC 2014: 3 and 5). These definitions, and related figure showing the intersection of vulnerability, risk, exposure, hazards and impacts, are repeated here. Adaptation: The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. Climate change: Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g, by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. Note that the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), in its Article 1, defines climate change as: ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ The UNFCCC thus makes a distinction between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected. Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources. In this report, the term hazard usually refers to climate-related physical events or trends or their physical impacts. Impacts: Effects on natural and human systems. In this report, the term impacts is used primarily to refer to the effects on natural and human systems of extreme weather and climate events and of climate change. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems, economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the vulnerability of an exposed society or system. Impacts are also referred to as consequences and outcomes. The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems, including floods, droughts, and sea-level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts. Resilience: The capacity of social, economic, and environmental systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganizing in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, and structure, while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning, and transformation. Risk: The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain, recognizing the diversity of values. Risk is often represented as probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied by the impacts if these events or trends occur. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure, and hazard (see Figure 1). In this report, the term risk is used primarily to refer to the risks of climate-change impacts. iv Figure 1: Risk of climate-related impacts results from the interaction of climate-related hazards (including hazardous events and trends) with the vulnerability and exposure of human and nature systems. Changes in both the climate system (left) and socioeconomic processes including adaptation and mitigation (right) are drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. Transformation: A change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems. Within this summary, transformation could reflect strengthened, altered, or aligned paradigms, goals, or values towards promoting adaptation for sustainable development, including poverty reduction. Finally, it is important to clarify between ‘climate’ and ‘weather’ – related hazards. Certain types of hazards that have a rapid onset and short duration (~days to a few weeks) are deemed weather-related hazards and included heavy rainfall, severe storms and flash flooding. Climate-related hazards are slow onset and persist for several weeks to months or even years and can be the accumulation of multiple weather events; drought and sea level rise are climate-related hazards (IPCC 2012). v Table of Contents Executive Summary i Acronyms ii Definitions iv Introduction to the Climate Risk Scoping Assessment 1 Introduction to the Study Municipalities Greater Kuala Lumpur Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur - DBKL Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya – MBPJ Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya - MPAJ 3 3 4 4 5 Climate Change and Weather and Climate-Related Hazards Current Weather and Climate-Related Hazards Projected Changes to Weather and Climate-Related Hazards in Peninsular Malaysia 6 6 8 Overview of National-Level Malaysian Climate Change Policies International Commitments National Climate Change Policies Green Building Index From Mitigation to Adaptation 11 11 11 13 13 Urban Planning for Low Carbon Development and Climate Resilience Spatial Planning Overview Other relevant Master Plans and Programmes by National and State Agencies Conservation Management Plan for the Gombak Quartz Ridge Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA) - DID SMART Tunnel DBKL Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience MBPJ Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience MPAJ Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience 16 16 17 18 19 19 21 22 24 Climate Risk Implications for Urban Green Building Efforts Urban Heat Island and Heat Waves Air Pollution and Haze Wind Loads Extreme Rainfall and Flooding 27 28 30 31 32 Recommendations 1. Climate Policy Integration and Coherence Rationale for integration Barriers to Integration Approaches to address barriers and facilitate integration 2. Local Adaptation and Resilience Building Frameworks 3. Integrated Design Approaches Balancing Building Objectives 34 34 34 35 35 36 38 References 41 vi Introduction to the Climate Risk Scoping Assessment Climate change is altering the frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards such as heavy rainfall and flooding, heat waves and drought, and secondary disasters like landslides or smog. There is growing recognition of the importance of managing emissions from urban infrastructure in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to overall global mitigation efforts to stay within the 1.5° to 2°C limits negotiated through the Paris Climate Treaty of 2015. Recent studies estimated that global urban buildings emitted a mean of 6.8 GtCO2 in 2010 and may contribute to 30% or more of future emissions (Creutzig et al 2016; Erickson and Tempest 2015). Buildings, roads and other infrastructure in cities have long lifetimes, sometimes spanning 50 to 100 years of use. Urban infrastructure construction choices of today – retrofitting existing buildings for energy efficiency, setting green building standards for new infrastructure, encouraging diverse, efficient transportation options, or preserving green spaces versus maintaining current urban development patterns – can either promote mitigation or lock-in substantial emissions growth that will exceed negotiated temperature limits. The failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change was perceived as the most impactful risk for the years to come in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) 2016 Global Risks Perception Survey (Global Competitiveness and Risk Team 2016). The survey also ranked climate change mitigation and adaptation failure as the third most likely risk after large scale involuntary migration (ranked 1st) and extreme weather events (2nd) and noted that such a failure is strongly connected to other leading risks ranked most likely and impactful such as water crises, extreme weather events and major natural catastrophes. At the ground level, decision makers need to answer some crucial questions: • • • • How will climate change impact the society, the environment, the economy and infrastructure? What can be done not only to mitigate climate change but also to reduce climate risks and impacts through adaptation? How should limited resources be prioritised for both mitigation and adaptation? How effective are the current policies and practices? What is needed to ensure the effectiveness, robustness, flexibility and overall resilience of measures taken? Countries like Malaysia are experiencing rapid urbanisation and economic expansion. Urban areas, like the municipalities in the Greater Kuala Lumpur region, are taking important steps to reduce the extent of climate change through low carbon, energy efficient initiatives. Some of these activities may include: installation of solar photovoltaics on municipal buildings; expansion of urban green spaces; retrofitting building skins; and installing electric vehicle infrastructure. This growth affords both mitigation and adaptation opportunities for the municipal authorities in the Greater KL area if existing and new climate risks are recognised and incorporated into urban development and planning. While transitioning to low carbon, energy efficient cities is absolutely necessary, it is also quite important to consider the climate risks to the intended activities. For example, heat waves, heavy rainfall and potentially higher wind loads may cause more damage to some municipal solar photovoltaic (PV) configurations and building skins than others. Heat waves can place significant burden on city electricity grids through increased energy demand and temperatures exceeding equipment operating thresholds. Solar PV micro-grids can simultaneously improve overall grid resilience or be at risk of malfunction during heat waves and flooding; micro-grid layout and siting are important considerations. If drought, heat waves and heavy rainfall become more prevalent throughout Greater KL, the trees and shrubs planted today to reduce air pollution, cool the cities and reduce flooding impacts might not actually survive and deliver the intended benefits. Promoting low carbon, green urban development practices and building standards that mainstream climate change adaptation today affords opportunities for reducing current and future climate risks. 1 This sub-study investigates existing and potential climate risks to low carbon urban development, particularly buildings, in Greater KL as part of a broader initiative. Carbon Trust is working with the study municipalities of Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur (DBKL), Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya (MPAJ) and Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya (MBPJ) - within the Greater Kuala Lumpur metropolitan region - to develop an infrastructure (buildings) energy inventory and a roadmap for expanding existing initiatives to demonstrate the carbon reductions possible through improved energy efficiency. The work is being undertaken with the intent of aligning the low carbon city and green growth plans that might be developed through the project with other relevant decision and policy priorities. This sub-study is a high-level study of climate risks to urban low carbon development efforts, particularly green buildings and urban green spaces, in Greater KL and involves: 1. Identification of current weather and climate-related hazards to which urban buildings are exposed and broadly projecting shifts in those hazards due to climate change; 2. Examination of current policies related to: urban development master plans; policies and actions related to disaster risk management and climate resilience; and, priorities for future socio-economic development that will influence urbanisation rates; and 3. Discussion of potential implications of these factors for creating climate risks for urban low carbon development, particularly buildings in DBKL, MPAJ and MBPJ. The information presented in this study is derived from the stakeholder consultations with representatives from various municipal departments in DBKL, MPAJ and MBPJ, and from a literature review. The Annex contains an overview of study methodology. 2 Introduction to the Study Municipalities Greater Kuala Lumpur The Greater Kuala Lumpur/Klang Valley (Greater KL) area contains the national capital, DBKL, and is the largest conurbation within Malaysia. The urban area is situated within a valley bordered by the Titiwangsa Mountains on the east with hilly regions to its north and south, on the west central coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The Gombak and Klang rivers flow through the urban agglomeration. Topography, climate, the two rivers and their numerous tributaries shape the hazards to which urban infrastructure and residents are exposed, as explored later in the report. The Greater KL region is comprised of a cluster of 10 municipalities within and around the Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan area, representing the nation’s key financial and economic growth centre. Greater KL includes the city of Kuala Lumpur and nine other municipalities, namely Klang, Kajang Subang Jaya, Petaling Jaya, Selayang, Shah Alam, Ampang Jaya, Putrajaya and Sepang – see Figure 2. All three study municipalities – DBKL, MPAJ and MBPJ - for this Climate Risk Scoping Study are located within the Greater KL region. A study by the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) found that Malaysia is lagging behind other regional urban hubs in attracting foreign companies and workers compared to neighbouring urban hubs like Beijing, Singapore and Shanghai (Inside Malaysia 2012). The study recommended developing urban centres with world-class connectivity, urbanisation and liveability to enhance Malaysia’s competitiveness. Towards this end, the ETP established the Greater KL conurbation as one of 12 National Key Economic Areas (NKEA) aimed at driving Malaysia towards high-income status and global competitiveness, as announced in the 10th Malaysia Plan (2011-2015) (Pemandu 2011 and nd). Figure 2: Greater KL urban area within Peninsular Malaysia and location of partnering municipalities DBKL, MPAJ and MBPJ (Department of Statistics 2013). 3 Since the NKEA’s establishment in 2010, the overall population of the Greater KL agglomeration has grown to ~7 million in 2013 and is expected to reach 10 million by 2020 as a result of expanding economic activities (Pemandu 2014). Greater KL’s economy currently accounts for about 37% of national gross domestic product and contributes about RM263 billion to the gross national income (GNI). Private sector involvement and investment is expected to total 72% of Greater KL’s contribution to GNI and create over 300,000 jobs by 2020. These socio-economic policy priorities contribute to Greater KL’s status as one of the fastest growing urban areas in Southeast Asia – and mark a concentration of people, businesses, infrastructure and assets in a weather and climate-related hazards prone area. Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur - DBKL Kuala Lumpur, which translates to ‘muddy estuary’ for its location at the confluence of Gombak River and Klang River, was founded in 1857 by a member of the Selangor royal family, Raja Abdullah. Together with Raja Jumaat of Lukut and 87 Chinese workers, he came to explore the district in search of tin ore. After travelling up the Klang River to the confluence with the Gombak River, the team made their way through deep jungle and found tin near Ampang. That moment marked the beginning of KL's development. After the arrival of Yap Ah Loy in the 1860s, development progressed at a faster pace. In March 1880, the British moved their seat of administration to Kuala Lumpur. With this, the British took charge of the running and expansion of the town and continued its development. Over the years, the area has grown from a tin miner's camp into a major commercial centre and a Southeast Asian near-megacity (Kuala Lumpur Tourism Bureau nd). Since 1961, Kuala Lumpur has been governed by a single corporate entity that was then known as the office of the Federal Capital Commissioner; it was upgraded to the Mayor of KL when the area was officially conferred the status of a city on the 1st February 1972. On 1 February 1974, Kuala Lumpur became the Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur and ceased to be the capital of Selangor State when it was ceded by the sultan of Selangor. The current governing body of Kuala Lumpur is Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur (DBKL 2017). Kuala Lumpur covers an area of 243 km2 and a 2015 estimated population of 1.7 million (Department of Statistics 2017). Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya – MBPJ In the early 1950s, Kuala Lumpur experienced significant congestion as a result of rapid population growth and squatters on the outskirts. To overcome these issues, the Selangor State Government created a new settlement known as Petaling Jaya in an area known as ‘Effingham Estate’, a 1,200-acre rubber plantation in Jalan Klang Lama. The party entrusted to govern the new settlement consisted of the District Officer of Kuala Lumpur and the Petaling Jaya Board, before being taken over by a statutory body – the Petaling Jaya Authority - at the end of 1954. Figure 3: Petaling Jaya as a city aims to be an international destination for livability through a rich blend of history, best features of built and natural environment, opportunities and activities. Source: MBPJ website. Petaling Jaya made history on 1 January 1964, when the Selangor State gazetted a Township Board with financial autonomy to govern the city. On 1 January 1977, Petaling Jaya Town 4 Authority was upgraded to Petaling Jaya Municipal Council (MPPJ), pursuant to the Local Government Act of 1976. Later, on 20 June 2006, the Petaling Jaya Municipal Council was upgraded to the Petaling Jaya City Council. Currently, the administrative area of MBPJ covers 97.2 km2 of rapidly growing urban and suburban areas. As of the 2010 Census, Petaling Jaya had a total population of 613,977 people and approximately 188,296 property units (Dept of Statistics 2013). Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya - MPAJ The early days of areas surrounding the present Ampang Jaya were closely related to the founding of Kuala Lumpur. The name 'Ampang', which is a corruption of the word ‘empang’ or dam, originated from the construction of a dam to route water from Bukit Belacan to the town area of Ampang by Chinese miners for tin mining. The native Malay residents in the Ampang area were Bugis descendants from Sumatera. The Local Authority Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya (MPAJ) was formed on 1st July 1992. Census data from 2010 noted that the population of Ampang Jaya was estimated to be 468,961 in an area of 143.5 km2, with the number properties estimated at 140,989 units (Dept of Statistics 2013). More than 50% of the area under the administration of MPAJ is hilly, forested area (MPAJ 2017a). The steep topography of MPAJ contributes to slope failures and landslide risk, often triggered during heavy rain and flooding events. Figure 4: View from Bukit Tabur limestone ridge near Taman Melawati. More than 50% of Ampang Jaya is forested area. Source: Tourism Selangor website. 5 Climate Change and Weather and Climate-Related Hazards Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather and climate-related hazards like heavy rainfall, heat waves and flooding (IPCC 2012). At the same time, cities throughout Asia are rapidly expanding, shifting the landscapes in which the cities are built and creating new opportunities and climate risks for residents, businesses and urban infrastructure (Friend et al 2014; Du et al 2016). Cities’ locations are critical in their exposure to climate-related hazards, with many cities in Asia – like Greater KL – located in floodplains or coastal areas. Land use change and the way urban infrastructure is constructed, including buildings, contribute to the overall vulnerability and propensity of the infrastructure to suffer damage during weather and climate-related hazards. Current Weather and Climate-Related Hazards There is considerable variability in rainfall intensity, duration and frequency on seasonal, yearly and multi-decadal timeframes for Malaysia. Different parts of Peninsular Malaysia experience different rainfall patterns (Suhaila et al 2010). The Greater KL area is located in west-central Peninsular Malaysia and surrounded by Selangor State. It has a tropical monsoon climate. The heaviest rainfall for this part of Malaysia occurs during the transition periods between the northeast (~November to February) and southwest monsoons (~May to August) - see Figure 5 (Syafrina et al 2015; Chow et al 2016). Extreme rainfall amounts in a few hours (due to thunderstorms) or heavy rainfall over consecutive days can trigger flash floods and landslides within the Greater KL region. Extreme rainfall due to thunderstorms is more likely to occur in the inter-monsoon periods, while multiple consecutive days of heavy rains are more likely during the northeast monsoon (November to February). Between the period 1983-2012, daily rainfall exceeding the 95th per centile has experienced a increasing trend in the Klang Valley during the northeast monsoon and 1st inter-monsoon period (~March to April), though the number of wet spells in which it rains 5 or more consecutive days decreased during the 2nd inter-monsoon (San et al 2015). Other measurements of extreme rainfall at subdaily timescales indicate significant increasing trends in hourly and 5-hour rainfall intensities during the northeast monsoon and both inter-monsoon periods between 1975-2010 around the Greater KL area (Syafrina et al 2015). Since its independence in 1957, Malaysia has been undergoing rapid development that has resulted in population shift and land use changes from rural to urban. Rapid urbanisation and industrialisation have impacted groundwater quality and infiltration rates, surface water and river flows, as well as accelerating the transport of pollutants and sediment from urban areas (Zakaria et al 2004). Increased sedimentation can lead to raising of the river bed in some reaches, expanding the floodplain and contributing to overtopping of banks during heavy rainfall events. Kuala Lumpur was built along the floodplains of the Klang River and has been subjected to flooding since its early days. Flooding is arguably the most frequent and severe disaster experienced by annually, with significant flood events causing thousands of deaths, injuries and losses in 2003, 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2016 (Islam et al 2016; Guha-Sapir et al 2017). In 2015 alone, flash and riverine flooding is estimated to have affected nearly 28 million people, leaving 78,903 homeless and costing nearly RM 67.5billion in damages (Guha-Sapir et al 2017). There is not a large variation in Greater KL temperatures, with daily maximum temperatures averaging around 32°C and daily minimums around 22°C. However, heat waves occur and infrastructure development and land use conversion contributes to Greater KL’s urban heat island effects and pollution (haze) issues. The overall number of warm days and nights has increased significantly for Malaysia over the period 1955-2007 (Choi et al 2009), with stations near the Greater KL region also demonstrating increasing trends in extremely hot days (Salleh et al 2015). 6 Figure 5: Kuala Lumpur climate normals (from the Shah Alam Airport station): Rainfall: ~1943-2010 and Temperature: 1961-2012. The top temperature line is the mean maximum daily temperature of a month, the bottom line is the mean minimum temperature of a month and the shaded area in between is the average diurnal temperature range. Data compiled from: WMO 2016; Climate-Data.org 2016; DID 2011 During consultations with representatives from different departments within each LA, the following weather and climate-related hazards were identified as having the most impact on people, infrastructure assets and businesses. Table 1: Key climate hazards as identified by the three study municipalities during consultation interviews. Current Weather and Climate-Related Hazards DBKL • Flash flooding • Haze and air pollution • Falling trees during heavy storms • Urban heat MBPJ MPAJ • Heavy rainfall • Flash flooding • River siltation from run-off into the Penchala, Damansara and Klang rivers, potentially increasing floodprone area • Landslides triggered during or after heavy rainfall events • Flash flooding All three of the study municipalities - Kuala Lumpur, Petaling Jaya and Ampang Jaya - are susceptible to flash flooding, which is a flooding event that rises and falls rapidly with little or no advance warning in an urban setting - usually as a result of intense local rainfall over a relatively small area lasting less than 1 hour. Flash flooding in urban areas is exacerbated by improper waste management, construction and loss of impervious surfaces - these lead to disruption of drainage functions and soil infiltration of rainwater and compound flood depths and velocities. Ampang Jaya became synonymous with landslides and slope failure following a number of fatal high profile incidents causing deaths and property damages. Events occurred in locations with steep slopes that had been destabilised after improper construction and building siting, with heavy rainstorms often triggering or contributing to the events. The fatal and damaging landslide and slope failure events in Ampang Jaya are as in Table 2 (MPAJ 2016a). There have been no major landslide events resulting in deaths since 2009 due to policies and actions taken, such as the establishment of a multi-agency taskforce for slope management and a specialised slope management unit under MPAJ (MPAJ 2016). Aside from heavy rainfall and its possible secondary hazards such as flooding, falling trees, landslides and mud/debris flow, DBKL also identified urban heat island (UHI) impacts as one of the main weather-related hazards affecting the municipality (consultation with DBKL 2016). A study done on UHI in Kuala Lumpur found that UHI intensity is caused and further exacerbated by urbanization and human activity, and elevates urban core temperatures up to 7ºC more than surrounding areas (Elsayed 2012). 7 Table 2: Landslide disasters in MPAJ (MPAJ 2016a) Year Dec 1993 May 1999 Oct 2000 Feb 2000 Nov 2002 May 2006 Apr 2008 Dec 2008 Sep 2009 Location Highland Towers Condominium Antheneum Tower Condominium, Bukit Antarabangsa Wangsa 1, Bukit Antarabangsa Kampung Sri Damai, Taman Kencana, Ampang. Taman Hillview, Ukay Heights Kampung Pasir, Hulu Klang Kondominium Wangsa Height, Bukit Antarabangsa Taman Bukit Mewah, Bukit Antarabangsa Wangsa Heights, Bukit Antarabangsa Death toll 48 1 8 4 5 - Projected Changes to Weather and Climate-Related Hazards in Peninsular Malaysia General circulation models (GCMs) project how climate might change across the entire globe, using model resolutions of ~100 to 300km. Peninsular Malaysia’s high natural variability and multiple rainfall regimes within a relatively small geographic area makes it difficult for coarse resolution GCMs to project the range of how much annual, seasonal, and heavy rainfall might change in the future under different emissions scenarios. Higher resolution climate projections specific to Malaysia are needed to improve upon the earlier projections done by the Malaysia Meteorological Department in 2009. Efforts are underway to downscale – produce higher resolution at scales of 25km or less – climate projections for Malaysia under the Southeast Asia Downscaling (SEACLID)/ Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Even though there are currently fewer higher-resolution efforts for Malaysia, there are a number of efforts for surrounding areas – such as India, Thailand and from other CORDEX initiatives – that provide useful information about the potential shifts in extreme rainfall events for South and Southeast Asia (Chaturvedi et al 2012; Limsakul et al 2009; Pour et al 2014; Huang et al 2015; Tangang et al 2012). Trend analysis of precipitation extremes over India and Malaysia already indicates the intensity of heavy rainfall events has been increasing (Dash et al 2009; Chow et al 2016; Syafrina et al 2015; Suhaila et al 2010). As the atmosphere warms, atmospheric moisture content increases and is expected to continue exacerbating the intensity and frequency of some extreme rainfall events (IPCC 2012; Westra et al 2014). Overall potential changes in Malaysian temperatures and rainfall are highlighted on the next page and derived from the literature just cited. Table 3: Some sources of climate change projection data for Malaysia Climate Projection Data for Malaysia The KMNI Climate Change Atlas - This tool allows visual comparison of various climate variables for different time periods and representative concentration pathways (RCPs – the latest ‘emission’ scenarios used in climate models) with the past. It displays changes projected by multiple Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models – models whose results were used to inform the IPCC Fifth Assessment. The Malaysian Meteorological Department’s 2009 study: Climate Change Scenarios for Malaysia 2001-2009. Projections within this report are based on a limited number of climate models and use only one emission scenario from the IPCC Fourth Assessment (2007) era. Journal articles, such as those listed in the text, describing observed trends and/or climate change projections for rainfall or temperature for Malaysia. 8 Climate Change Shifts in Extreme Weather Hazards for Malaysia Heavy Rainfall Events (see Figure 6) • 1-hour rainfall intensities (amount of rainfall in an hour) have been increasing since the 1970s, particularly in west peninsular Malaysia during the inter-monsoon periods. Other extreme rain events (namely 5-hour and consecutive days of heavy rain) have also increased. However… • The total number of rainy days decreased on during the monsoon periods between 1975-2004 for western peninsular Malaysia. This may be partially due to natural variability and partially to climate change. • The intensity of extreme rainfall events is likely to increase in the future, exacerbating flooding and landslide hazard occurrence. Annual Maximum Temperatures • Likely to increase ~1 to 2.5°C over Peninsular Malaysia over the period 2041-2060 when compared with the period 1986-2005. • Likely to increase 1 to 4°C by 2081-2100 when compared with 1986-2005. • The number of heat waves (total number of days in which maximum temperatures exceed the 90th per centile temperature) is likely to increase significantly – see Figure 7. There are limitations to climate projections, some discussed here and others in the Annex: • Different models will project different magnitudes of change for various climate variables. • Localised temperature increases, urban heat islands impacts and heat waves may be greater than what is projected at the large resolution scales of the CMIP5 models. • Models have a hard time simulating precipitation over Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, because a lot of the rainfall is due to thunderstorms. There is no clear trend in how annual precipitation totals might change in the future – the GCMs are currently not in agreement and the projected changes are within the amount of historical variability. However, it is not at the annual timescale that precipitation amounts matter. Flooding and other heavy rainfall-related hazards are often due to intense, localised storms lasting only a few hours to days, which are not easily captured at the spatial resolution of the GCMs. This is exemplified by the hatching in Figure 6. Research on potential shifts in the intensity and frequency of extreme events remains limited for Malaysia, but is likely to improve with the release of the CORDEX/SEACLID projections in later 2017 (Tangang et al 2012). 9 th Figure 6: Projected median model changes in the daily rainfall that exceeds the 95 percentile within a year across all CMIP5 GCMs: (A) shows the percent difference in P95tot over 2041-2060 compared to 1986-2005 according to RCP4.5; (B) shows for RCP8.5 over 2041-2060 compared to 1986-2005; (C) shows RCP4.5 for 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005; and (D) shows RCP8.5 for 2081-2100 compared with 1986-2005. The hatching shows regions where the models’ projections are less than natural variability and no robust statements about how the extreme rainfall might change in the future can be made. Figures are from the KMNI Climate Explorer. th Figure 7: Projected per cent changes in number of days a year exceeding th 90 per centile maximum temperature: (A) shows the per cent increase in heat wave days during 2041-2060 compared to 19862005 under RCP4.5; (B) shows for RCP8.5 over 2041-2060 compared to 1986-2005; (C) shows RCP4.5 for 2081-2100 compared to 1986-2005; and (D) shows RCP8.5 for 2081-2100 compared with 1986-2005. Figures are from the KMNI Climate Explorer. 10 Overview of National-Level Malaysian Climate Change Policies Malaysia is at risk of suffering numerous climate change-related impacts, ranging from sea level rise impacting coastal communities to increased flooding during extreme rainfall events. The country has begun taking steps to mitigate climate change through low carbon development and emissions reduction policies, plans and actions, and is beginning to explore climate change adaptation and resilience measures. Some national-level policies, projects and actions are highlighted in this section that, taken together, provide the overall guidance and a framing for national and urban actions around increasing urban energy efficiency, low carbon development and addressing urban infrastructure climate risks in Greater KL. Malaysia has undergone a policy evolution, with initial efforts primarily focused on observing global emission reduction negotiations to playing a more active role in mitigation and adaptation and trying to incorporate actions into overall economic planning and disaster risk reduction activities. International Commitments Malaysia ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1994 as a Non-Annex 1 Party and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. As a Non-Annex 1 party, Malaysia did not have emission reduction obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. In 2009, during the 15th Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP15), Malaysia pledged to reduce carbon emission intensity relative to GDP by 40% by 2020 when compared to 2005. It thus joined 36 other countries in pledging voluntary mitigation action during the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020 (Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions 2017; NRE 2010a). The year 2009 marked the country’s first international commitment to a GHG emission reduction target. In 2015, Malaysia renewed its commitment to this target and added an extended target of 45% carbon intensity reduction by the year 2030, still relative to 2005, as its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) under the Paris Agreement (NRE 2015). National Climate Change Policies Malaysian national policy for action on climate change was initially focused only upon mitigation. Beyond its pledge to retain at least 50% of its total area as forest cover, submitted at the Rio Summit in 1992, mitigation policy began with the 2001 Five Fuel Policy (Grantham RICCE 2016). This policy was in support of the renewable energy targets laid out in the 8th Malaysia Plan (2001-2005) and continued in the 9th Malaysia Plan (2006-2010). It was also an extension of the previous Four-Fuel Policy - adding renewable energy, and specifically biomass power from oil palm residues - to the existing basis of oil, coal, natural gas and hydropower (Haw et al 2006). The policy failed to reach its target of 500 MW grid connected renewables, and by 2010 only 42 MW of renewable energy had been added to the electricity supply despite approvals having been issued to construct 283 MW of capacity (Maulud and Saidi 2012; Grantham RICCE 2016). The newly established Ministry for Energy, Green Technology and Water (KeTTHa) began introducing policies shortly after its inception. In response to the failure of previous policies to deliver the desired renewables outcomes, KeTTHA introduced the National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan. The renewable energy plan laid the foundation for the goal of renewables contributing 13% of total electricity production and constituting 34% of the grid connected capacity by 2050 (KeTTHA 2008). The National Green Technology Policy was introduced in 2009 by KeTTHA. While not specifically framed as a climate change policy, it has a significant focus on the reduction of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Defined as products, equipment or systems that minimise the degradation of the environment, has zero or low GHG emissions, is safe and promotes healthy and improved environment, conserves resource use and promotes the use of renewable resources, the policy aims to promote green technology as a driver for environment, economy, energy independence and improved quality of life (KeTTHA 2009a). 11 In 2009, in tandem with the first international commitment to climate change mitigation action, KeTTHA also launched its National Policy on Climate Change, which in conjunction with the Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan, aimed to increase the contribution of renewables to 5% of the total energy mix by 2015, or around 975 MW and widened the focus of renewable energy integration beyond biomass (Grantham RICCE 2016). This national policy included a feed-in tariff system, allowing for significant premiums for certain quotas of renewable energy from solar, biomass, biogas, geothermal and hydro sources (SEDA 2017). The feed-in tariff is expected to generate 113 MTCO2 in GHG reductions through the years 2012-2041, and has been recognised within the UNFCCC Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Activities (NAMA) registry (UNFCCC 2017). Beyond the increased role of renewables in the energy mix, the National Policy on Climate Change aims to: • Mainstream climate change mitigation through wise management of resources and enhanced environmental conservation resulting in strengthened economic competitiveness and improved quality of life; • Integrate responses into national policies, plans and programmes to strengthen the resilience of development from arising and potential impacts of climate change; and • Strengthening of institutional and implementation capacity to better harness opportunities to reduce negative impacts of climate change. To achieve these overall goals, the policy contains 10 “Strategic Thrusts” or policy goals (see box on the next page), and 43 “Key Actions” that serve as recommendations for implementation. The document, in its published form, does not indicate timelines or agencies in charge of specific actions, making assessment of the status of the policy difficult (Koh et al 2016; NRE 2010). The policy mentions balancing climate change adaptation with mitigation, and supporting climate-resilient development, but definitions, adaptation planning process guidelines and actions for mainstreaming climate adaptation into policies are vague and no clear responsibilities for particular ministries or agencies are demarcated. The 10 “Strategic Thrusts” of the National Policy on Climate Change • Facilitate the harmonisation of existing policies and institutions to address climate change adaptation and mitigation in a balanced manner • Institute measures to make development climate-resilient through low carbon economy to enhance global competitiveness and attain environmentally sustainable socioeconomic growth • Support climate-resilient development and investment including industrial development in pursuit of sustainable socio-economic growth • Adopt balanced adaptation and mitigation measures to strengthen environmental conservation and promote sustainability of natural resources • Consolidate the energy policy incorporating management practices that enhances renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) • Institutionalise measures to integrate cross-cutting issues in policies, plans, programmes and projects in order to increase resilience to climate change • Support knowledge-based decision making through intensive climate-related research and development and capacity building of human resources. • Improve collaboration through efficient communication and coordination among all stakeholders for effective implementation of climate change responses • Increase awareness and community participation to promote behavioural responses to climate change • Strengthen involvement in international programmes on climate change based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. 12 The country’s economic planning is now also beginning to account for mitigation actions, albeit in discrete projects. The Economic Transformation Programme (ETP), launched on 25 September 2010, was formulated as part of Malaysia's National Transformation Programme. Its goal is to elevate the country to developed-nation status by 2020. The ETP's targets are to be achieved through the implementation of 12 NKEAs, representing economic sectors that account for significant contributions to GNI (Pemandu 2017). As the capital and commercial heart of the country, the Greater Kuala Lumpur/Klang Valley NKEA represents a crucial component in the plan to transform Malaysia into a high-income nation by 2020 through the implementation of nine Entry Point Projects (EPPs – Pemandu 2014). EPP6 under the Greater KL/KV NKEA is focused on Greening Greater Kuala Lumpur to Ensure Residents Enjoy Sufficient Green Space. This project aims to increase greenery in the city by planting 100,000 large-coverage trees and park establishment with the private sector. Key performance indicators (KPIs) under this EPP include the number of trees planted, the number of trees funded by the private sector, the number of trees tagged under Global Positioning Index (GPI), and the number of trees maintained (Pemandu 2017b). As such, EPP6 contributes to Malaysia’s climate mitigation efforts and provides impetus to the local authorities for urban green projects. Green Building Index The growing policy interest in mitigation action has helped to strengthen interest and initiatives in green building and low carbon urban development. The Green Building Index, launched in 2009, is a rating and certification framework for buildings and townships, developed by the Malaysian Institute of Architects (PAM) and The Association of Consulting Engineers, Malaysia (ACEM - Tan 2009). The framework rates buildings on 6 key parameters: Energy Efficiency, Indoor Environment Quality, Sustainable Site Planning and Management, Materials and Resources, Water Efficiency, and Green Innovation (GBI 2016). There are 14 different categories of developments, each with a separate rating tool, with different emphasis on each of the 6 parameters (GBI 2017a). Based on the final verified rating, a GBI-certified development can be classified as ‘Certified’, ‘Silver’, ‘Gold’ or ‘Platinum’ (GBI 2017b). While the Green Building Index is run entirely by PAM and ACEM, the Malaysian government, through KeTTHA, supported the initiative through tax deductions for companies who have certified their buildings. Those incentives expired in 2010 (KeTTHA 2009), although new incentives are now offered through the Malaysian Investment Development Authority (Jemaat 2016). As of January 15th 2017, a total of 755 buildings and 19 townships have applied for certification, of which 372 buildings and 8 townships have been certified (GBI 2017). From Mitigation to Adaptation Malaysia, similar to other countries (Lebel et al 2012), has until recently pursued policies and programmes more oriented to climate change mitigation than those related to adaptation. Development plans – from national spatial and disaster risk management plans to local action plans – provide mechanisms for building urban resilience. Development control measures, like land use and building regulations, influence the exposure of urban assets and infrastructure to weather and climate-related hazards and actions to mitigate urban GHG emissions. With the introduction of the 11th Malaysia Plan (2016-2020), there has been a significant shift in focus from mitigation to recognising the need to incorporate adaptation and resilience into socio-economic development, including energy policy. While there is still an ambitious target of increasing the installed renewable energy capacity from 283 MW in 2014 to over 2,000 MW by 2020, both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management has been given prominent positions in the plan (EPU 2015). The 11th Malaysia Plan does acknowledge the need to continue to build upon the research and harmonisation of policies to facilitate “the need for strengthening disaster risk management, addressing gaps in how it is assessed and prepared for (p. 6-8)”…”and developing a national adaptation plan, and strengthening resilience of infrastructure (p. 6-25)” in response to the 13 increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. The plan calls for disaster and climate risk management to be incorporated into development planning, and for building resilient infrastructure. Malaysia is currently in the middle of the 11th planning period (2016-2020) and moving toward mainstreaming climate resilience into development and planning. Currently, Malaysia has taken the ‘no regrets’ approach to climate change adaptation, meaning only interventions that are beneficial regardless of climate impacts - including demand-side water management and rainwater harvesting - are currently being implemented (NRE 2010a). However, several initiatives have been announced with the 11th Malaysia Plan. Under Focus Area 6D, the Plan aims to enhance climate change adaptation through (EPU 2015; NRE 2015): Developing a national climate change adaptation plan, currently being drafted by KeTTHA; Building resilient infrastructure with particular emphasis on energy and water distribution; Strengthening natural buffers, to improve maintain biodiversity in forest, coastal and river environments Increasing the resilience of the agricultural sector to insure food supply security and improve economic development; Create public awareness on health impacts of climate change to reduce the impacts of vector-borne diseases. • • • • • The National Policy on Climate Change (2009) provides the framework for mainstreaming and balancing mitigation and adaptation measures into policy and practice. Two principles, and related strategic thrusts, explicitly state goals for considering climate change in socio-economic and environmental development plans: • • P1: Development on a Sustainable Path – Integrate climate change responses into national development plans to fulfil the country’s aspiration for sustainable development. o ST1-P1 – Facilitate the harmonisation of existing policies to address climate change adaptation and mitigation in a balanced manner P3: Coordinated Implementation – Incorporate climate change considerations of development programmes at all levels. o ST6-P3 – Institutionalise measures to integrate cross-cutting issues in policies, plans, programmes and projects in order to increase resilience to climate change. o ST7-P3 – Support knowledge-based decision making through intensive climate related research and development and capacity of human resources. Various ministries, institutes and universities – such as the Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment (MOSTE), the Malaysian Meteorological Department or the National Hydraulic Research Institute of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (NAHRIM) – have and are contributing research on climate change projections, data and climate impacts assessments. However, many of the publicly available climate change risks and impacts studies that could influence policy development, such as the Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia, have not been updated in the last 5 to 10 years. Given the rapid development and evolution in knowledge about climate change and higher-resolution projections, as well as the fast rates of urbanisation and land use change, such studies may be outdated and may not provide the most robust impacts information for helping to shape urban mitigation and adaptation measures. Disaster risk management (DRM) has historically been the domain of the National Security Council, with a mandate from National Security Council Directive 20: Policy and Mechanism on National Disaster Relief and Management (CEDMHA 2016). DRM was reactive, with a principal focus on disaster response and relief (Rahman 2012). In November 2015, this portfolio was moved to a new specialised agency, the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA), along with the responsibility for coordination of disaster relief efforts (Maizura et al 2016). 14 NADMA is currently in the process of defining their role and extent of involvement with regards to resilience planning, as well as their ability to undertake vulnerability assessments of priority areas including urban flooding, energy water security, agriculture, infrastructure and health (Maizura et al 2016). At present, NADMA is still using the Directive 20 as reference for operations, supported by seven volumes of existing Standards Operating Procedures (SOPs) that clarify and detail interagency roles and responsibilities. Each SOP addresses specific types of hazards and disasters, namely flooding, industrial disaster, haze, petrochemical disaster, earthquake, tsunami and drought (Maizura et al 2016). Two SOPs are currently being drafted for Humanitarian Assistance Disaster Relief (HADR) and radiation disaster. NADMA is working to develop updated operating procedures and move disaster management from a more reactive, response-driven orientation to a more proactive, disaster resilience and planning orientation. Understandably, given its history of focus on mitigation, adaptation efforts continue to lag but their need is gaining in recognition among Malaysian policy makers. The national-level policies, as elaborated earlier, provide the guidance and framework for policies and plans at the municipal level and help shape the courses of action LAs take with regard to disaster risk management, including climate change adaptation, within overall land use planning, mitigation and low carbon economic development. 15 Urban Planning for Low Carbon Development and Climate Resilience Urban planning, building efficiency and disaster risk reduction policies all influence the vulnerability and exposure of Greater KL/KV infrastructure to weather and climate-related hazards. How a city is constructed – from the siting of buildings, to preservation of green spaces and flood-zone management – impact mitigation and adaptation choices over the short to long term. Due to the long lifetime and cost of critical urban infrastructure, such as buildings, roads and transportation networks, policies and activities put in place today will greatly influence current and future climate risks. For example, improper siting (orientation and spacing) of buildings can reduce the effectiveness of building energy efficiency activities, efforts to reduce the urban heat island and exacerbate flood risks. Urban spatial planning, building codes and disaster risk management plans all form the foundation upon which urban climate resilience activities are built. This section provides an overview of urban development planning and institutional arrangements in KL that impact the low carbon efficiency and disaster risk reduction efforts of municipal governments. Spatial Planning Overview Land use change and urban development greatly influence a city’s weather and climate-related risks at multiple timescales. Development and spatial planning is carried out at all three tiers of government - federal, state and local levels - in Peninsular Malaysia. The Town and Country Planning Act 1976 (Act 172) and its amendments are the legal basis for the process of preparing development plans in all of Peninsular Malaysia, except Kuala Lumpur. In Kuala Lumpur, the Federal Territory (Planning) Act 1982 (Act 267) provides the legal framework for planning practices in the Federal territory of Kuala Lumpur. At the national level, development planning is guided by the Five-Year Malaysia Plans, the National Physical Plan (NPP) and other sectoral national policies passed by the Cabinet, all of which address the strategic issues of national importance and provide the overall framework for subsequent drawing up of the other more detailed Development Plans (JPBD 2010). Similarly, development at the state level is guided by Regional and State Development Plans. Other national sectoral policies are formulated from time to time by the respective state governments. Local level physical planning is carried out and regulated through the statutory development plans, in the form of Local Plans and Special Area Plans, Figure 8: Malaysian national development planning prepared by the local planning framework (JPBD 2010). authorities. These local-level plans deal primarily with more detailed and site-specific land use allocations, spatial development of each locality and community needs. The NPP sets out the national long-term strategic spatial planning policies and measures needed to implement them. The 2nd National Physical Plan outlining land use and spatial development emphasises the need to consider climate change, although the language remains broad. The plan prioritises energy efficient and ‘compact cities’, but there is not mention of the need to continually review and update information about shifts in weather and climate-related hazards’ location, intensity, frequency and duration, as well as changes in socio- 16 economic vulnerability and exposure due to development. The NPP mentions “development Plans shall identify the relevant issues related to climate change and shall aim to achieve green neighbourhoods”, but beyond recommending that coastal area setbacks should be periodically reviewed to account for inundation due to sea level rise, none of the other measures for infrastructure spatial development (e.g. flood prone areas) mention the need to account for shifting climate risks. The spatial planning vision, policies, measures and land allocations of the NPP are then translated through the State Structure and Local Plans; and eventually through the Action Area Plans and programmes. The main users of the NPP are the federal and state agencies responsible for forward planning, development and financial allocations, as well as local agencies responsible for development control and land administration. Malaysia is currently in the second NPP period of 2015-2020. The NPP is reviewed every five years, in tandem with the review of the Five-Year Development Plan. The NPP is translated to the state level in the state’s Structure Plan (SP), which is a written statement explaining the policy and general proposal of the state authority in respect to the development and use of land in the state. The SPs include measures for improving physical living environment; improvement of communications; traffic management; improvement of socio-economic well-being and the promotion of economic growth; and, facilitating sustainable development. Besides translating the NPP, the SP also provides a development framework for the Local Plan (LP), as well as a document determining the state’s major land use and key projects (JBPD nd). The Selangor Structural Plan adopted the concept of ‘sustainable development’ as declared in the Selangor State Sustainable Development and Local Agenda 21 Strategies, specifically to: build a knowledge society; maintain ecosystem health; develop economic fundamentals; ensuring the state's natural resources are used wisely; develop highly productive agricultural activities; ensure comfortable housing; provide adequate infrastructure; develop human resources; involvement of civil society in the planning and management; and integration of the sustainable development principles (JPBD 2017). At the local levels, the Local Plan (LP) is an official document interpreting the policies and general proposals contained in the SP down to a more detailed physical development proposal. LPs are specific for each identified Local Authority (LA) and demarcate the largescaled layout of whole district development equipped with a written statement to explain the policies and details about the development (Federal Dept. of Town and Country Planning nd). They are an interpretation of SP policies, a guide to physical development of the relevant district and local planning authority through the land use proposal map, a set of guidelines for development control, identification of key project area, and guidelines for its implementation. For the three study municipalities of this project, local planning coordination is headed by one key department with support from working committees and technical group committees, which are in turn fed by all other departments. The coordinating department in DBKL is the City Planning Department, while in MBPJ and MPAJ it is the Planning Department. All three LAs involved in the scoping study use the services of external consultants to help them prepare their LPs. Other relevant Master Plans and Programmes by National and State Agencies In addition to the study municipalities’ spatial and development plans, the LAs within the Greater KL are also supported by a number of master plans and programmes coordinated and implemented by external agencies. Some specific national-level policies and initiatives impact disaster risk management and urban land use planning, and ultimately climate risk management, within the Greater KL/KV region. Table 4 highlights some key national-level policies and initiatives, with other important initiatives outlined after the table. 17 Table 4: Relevant development master plans and guidelines in Greater KL area by other agencies (SPAD 2013; Pemandu 2017a; Pemandu 2017b; Mohd Jafar 2010). Plan Key Agency Overview Public Land Transport Master Plan SPAD An integrated 20-year plan to transform land public transport to address the current deterioration in land public transport, consistent with the DBKL City Plan, the Structure and Local Plans within Selangor and the Putrajaya Plans. Economic Transformation Programme, NKEA Greater KL/KV, EPP5: The River of Life Project Pemandu, Ministry of Federal Territories, DID, DBKL, MPAJ Entry Point Project to transform specific areas within Kuala Lumpur facing the Klang River into a vibrant waterfront with high economic and commercial value, divided into three key parts River Cleaning, River Beautification and Land Development. Economic Transformation Programme, NKEA Greater KL/KV, EPP6: Greening Greater Kuala Lumpur Pemandu, Ministry of Federal territories, DBKL Entry Point Project to increase greenery in the city by planting 100,000 large-coverage trees, with the support of private sector, through tree-planting and parks establishment within KL. Development and Planning Guidelines for Hilly and Highland Area State of Selangor State-wide guideline for development of hilly and high land classified as Class III and Class IV slopes, based on geological criteria. Includes general guideline for slope areas that can be developed, slope areas that need to be preserved, national heritage areas, topographical conservation, and slope areas that need to be conserved; as well as specific guideline for planning control and buffer zone. Conservation Management Plan for the Gombak Quartz Ridge The Klang Gates Quartz Ridge, said the be formed more than 100 million years ago, together with the forested area behind the Ridge that connect to the Ulu Gombak Forest Reserve, was gazetted in February 2010 as 'state park' under the National Forestry Act Selangor Enactment, making it a part of Selangor State Park. Towards preserving the unique geological monument resembling the back of a dragon, the Selangor State Government, in conjunction with Selangor State Park Corporation, Selangor State Forestry Department, Department of Wildlife and National Parks Peninsular Malaysia (Perhilitan), Lembaga Urus Air Selangor, Selangor Town and Country Planning Department, Selangor DID, Selangor Mineral and Geoscience Department, MPAJ, Majlis Perbandaran Selayang, and Gombak Land and District Office, is drafting the Conservation Management Plan for the Gombak Quartz Ridge. The CMP is expected to include more detailed management, control and development in the ridge’s buffer zone core, as well as guidelines and management structure to support and strengthen the state’s efforts towards achieving national and global recognition as a UNESCO heritage site (Shalini 2015). The plan prohibits urban development along the ridge and helps preserve the ecosystem services – such as rich biodiversity habitat, carbon sequestration and hydrological regulation – that contribute to overall Greater KL resilience. 18 Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (MSMA) - DID The Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) introduced an urban drainage manual in 2001 – the Stormwater Management Manual for Malaysia (Manual Saliran Mesra Alam or MSMA) - to replace the previous procedures from 1995. The manual guides development projects to address issues related to local runoff such as flash flooding, erosion and sedimentation, as well as water quality deterioration. Implementation of MSMA shifted the focus away from rapid stormwater disposal through river and drainage networks to managing and controlling stormwater at source using detention and/or retention, infiltration and purification processes. The manual also considers existing issues such as flash flood, river pollution, soil erosion, hill development, in an attempt to maintain runoff quality and quantity in a developing area at a pre-development state. MSMA continues to gradually evolve with the introduction of Erosion and Sediment Control Plan (ESCP) as part of Earthwork Plan, treatment control facilities like constructed wetlands, engineered waterways, infiltration facilities, bio-retention facilities, etc. for post construction water quality control measures, retrofitting exercises to convert rapid disposal facilities, as well as professional training and awareness programmes (Md Noh 2008). The manual was updated in 2011, with the second edition including revision of design criteria and parameters, and improved design calculation methods (Zakaria et al 2014). However, the rainfall design curves for design storms have not been updated in the manual to reflect likely shifts in rainfall intensities, duration or frequency of different events under climate change. As a result, some of the recommendations for runoff and urban drainage may be inadequate to deal with mid- to long-term climate risks. SMART Tunnel Kuala Lumpur’s Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel (SMART), a combined stormwater and motorway tunnel was, conceived as a project under the Malaysian Federal Government to alleviate flooding in the city centre. The SMART project was implemented through a joint venture pact between MMC Corp Berhad and Gamuda Berhad with DID, and the Malaysian Highway Authority as the executing government agencies. SMART is a dual-purpose tunnel, incorporating a double-deck motorway to relieve traffic congestion within the middle section of a stormwater tunnel. It was completed on 30 June 2007. Designed first and foremost as a flood control measure, the motorway section is closed for flood operations as needed, with the protocol maintained by the national government through DID. The tunnel has three modes of operation: • Mode I – No storm or rainfall (peak river flow is less than 70 cumecs), the road section operates normally and traffic is able to use the tunnel to exit Kuala Lumpur city centre; • Mode 2 – Minor or moderate storm (peak river flow is between 70 and 150 cumecs), semi-open status, diversion of water flow from the confluence of Klang River and Ampang River allowed through the lowest channel of the road tunnel section, with the motorway section operating normally; and • Mode 3 - Major storm or prolonged downpour (river flow predicted to exceed 150 cumecs), the stormwater tunnel is activated to fully open status, to divert water flow at full capacity from the confluence of the two rivers into holding ponds, with the entrances to the motorway section closed to traffic. The SMART tunnel has proven to be a success in meeting its primary and secondary objectives, resulting in reduced flooding incidents in the flood-prone areas of Masjid Jamek, Dataran Merdeka, Leboh Ampang and Jalan Melaka. Between 2007-2012, Mode 3 operation was activated to prevent potentially severe flooding a total of seven times: two times each in 2007, 2008, and 2012 (up to May) and once in 2011. Around 38,000 vehicles use the doubledeck motorway each day. 19 A DID survey concluded that within the concession period spanning 30 years, SMART is expected to prevent USD1.58 billion of possible flood damage and up to USD1.26 billion savings from traffic congestion. The savings are likely to be significantly more over the next decade, since these estimates are only for the duration of the concession – the tunnel has a design life of some 100 years. However, the tunnel design does not incorporate possible shifts in flood characteristics due to climate change and urbanisation, so the savings may decrease over time as climate risks increase. The combination of spatial land use planning, and mitigation and disaster risk management policies at the national and state levels influence local level policies and plans. The next section provides a brief overview of the relevant plans, policies and programmes that guide spatial planning, low carbon development and DRM efforts in each of the municipalities. 20 DBKL Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience The overall development of Kuala Lumpur is guided by the Kuala Lumpur Structure Plan 2020 (KLSP2020), which covers the “the vision, goals, policies and proposals to guide the development of Kuala Lumpur.” The KLSP2020 is “a detailed lot based plan that determines land use zoning, development intensity, use classes [sic] and planning guidelines for the purpose of the development control” (DBKL 2017a) The plan went through public hearings, during which time there was significant public resistance related to a projected increase in population density above what is indicated in the National Physical Plan, and the development of existing green lungs and open spaces within the city (Coalitions for Good Governance 2008). According to the Federal Territory (Planning) Act of 1982, in the absence of a local plan, the development plan becomes the Structure Plan for the area (Government of Malaysia 1982; 1984). The plan was never gazetted, and as such is not binding. It is currently being used as a reference for zoning and development permit approvals as no other local plan is in effect (consultations with DBKL City Planning Dept. 2016). As such, the KLSP2020 is currently the legal development document for Kuala Lumpur, and will undergo a revision processes in 2017 for the planning period of 2030-2040 (consultations with DBKL 2016). Further detail about projected population increases, land use zoning and development intensity – all of which impact future urban climate risks and low carbon development – is not currently (early 2017) publicly available with the planned revision. Given the extended planning horizon of the planning period, mainstreaming climate risk considerations into zoning, development intensity and land use classes is of utmost importance to avoid locking DBKL into particular land use configurations that exacerbate urban heat island and flooding hazards. Yet many of the spatial and development plans do not explicitly mainstream mitigation or adaptation measures. As such, DBKL has developed separate plans, programmes and activities for mitigation and adaptation – see Table 5. Table 5: DBKL mitigation policies and programmes (Lim 2017; UTM 2016; consultations with DBKL 2017; Pemandu 2012 and 2017b; NIACS 2017; consultations with DBKL 2017). Plan or Activity SEDA-DBKL Energy Audit Key Agencies or Groups DBKL and Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) Overview Starting with Menara DBKL 1, SEDA is conducting energy audits for the municipal buildings, with the aim of reducing consumption, and thus its RM13 million in electricity bills, by 20-30%. Low Carbon Development Plan Blueprint DBKL and Low Carbon Asia Research Centre of the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia The overall aim of the blueprint is to reduce the carbon intensity of Kuala Lumpur by 50%, relative to GDP, by 2030 compared to 2010. Plan completion and public release expected in November 2017. Tree planting and park adoption under NKEA EEP6 DBKL and private sector The programme encourages companies to adopt public parks - taking over park maintenance for a number of years, or sponsor tree planting in other parts of the city. The large number of additional trees will sequester CO2 from the atmosphere. While the initial target for the EPP was 100,000 new trees planted between 2010 and 2020, DBKL currently targets planting 40,000 trees a year. During consultations with DBKL staff, the officials identified some city disaster risk policies as ones that could contribute to overall climate adaptation efforts. DBKL has more than 800 out of 3,299 slopes within its jurisdiction designated as high-risk of slope failure and to be closely monitored to prevent death and property damage. Under the Kuala Lumpur Hazard and Risk Map Application System (KULSIS), high-risk slopes are closely 21 monitored for signs of distress including soil erosion, clogged drains or land movement, and repaired or maintained before slope failure occurs. The slope hazard mapping initiative, which is now in its second phase, is also utilised to advise on resource allocation as well as approval for development on slopes. In 2014, the Federal Government set aside an allocation of RM15.3 million for remedial and maintenance work on the slopes identified (Wong 2014). The initiative is crucial in protecting people, buildings and assets from landslides that can be triggered by heavy rainfall events or waterlogging. DBKL has been continuously upgrading its drainage system in areas identified as flood prone. During the 9th Malaysia Plan, the city council invested RM132 million for upgrading drainage works, including construction of flood retention ponds and flood mitigation water pumps. For the years 2012-2014, RM10.36 million was spent for flood mitigation - another RM30 million is earmarked for 2017 (Chariam 2016). In May 2016, Deputy Federal Territories Minister Datuk Dr J. Loga Bala Mohan was reported as saying that RM92 million was to be spent to improve Kuala Lumpur’s flash flood mitigation and response system (Carvalho 2016). Activities targeted under the funding initiative include replacement of old piping, installation of water pumps, building of retention ponds and road diversions, as well as RM5 million for an integrated traffic management system to better manage traffic during flash floods. DBKL does not have a specific disaster risk management plan. In place of a plan, the municipality has a disaster rescue team known as ‘Skuad Penyelamat’. The team was established February 1991, to coordinate and provide support for emergency and rescue tasks, including: rescue volunteer management; establishment of an Emergency Medical Technician and paramedic team; evacuation and resettlement of disaster victims; maintenance of an emergency state of preparedness with back-up and logistical support; and establishment of a training and research institute. DBKL has also undertaken method standardisation for emergency and rescue cooperation (SPDBKL 2017). DBKL’s Skuad Penyelamat is divided into a number of units, which cover scuba, paramedic, search and rescue, general assistance, administration and logistics. The units respond to events such as fires, road accidents, drowning - especially during flooding events, search and rescue in building collapse, and emergency and paramedic assistance. MBPJ Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience Both MBPJ and MPAJ refer to the Selangor State Structural Plan 2020 (2005-2020) in developing their LPs (JPBD 2007). The local planning for Petaling Jaya is covered by two plans, RTPJ1 and RTPJ2. They were originally written to cover the period 1997-2010, and were gazetted in 2007. In February 2013 amendments to RTPJ1 and RTPJ2 were submitted to the Selangor State Planning Committee, and approved in July of the same year. The amendments were withdrawn following public outcry and protests by city councillors in 2014. In June 2015, the State Planning Committee approved a redrafted version of the amendments for public hearing (MBPJ 2015). The amendments have not yet been gazetted. During the consultations, it was not possible to get detailed information about population growth and land use planning scenarios - but MBPJ will continue to expand. The manner of urbanisation will impact MBPJ's overall climate resilience. Launched in 2014, the Sustainable PJ 2030 is a framework compiling a number of initiatives with the aim of making Petaling Jaya “[a] liveable and sustainable city that has good image, good governance with a harmonious and healthy environment.” The plan includes a drainage master plan and a rainwater management master plan, as well as numerous other programmes covering Environment, Economy, Culture and Community, Good Governance and Living (MBPJ 2017). 22 Table 6: MBPJ mitigation policies and programmes (KeTTHA 2011; UNDP 2017; Carbon Trust 2015; Carbon Trust 2015a; Carbonn Climate Registry 2017; consultations with MBPJ 2016; Ch’ng 2014). Plan or Activity Low Carbon Cities Framework Key Agencies or Groups MBPJ, KeTTHA and Malaysian Institute of Planners Overview MBPJ adopted the Low Carbon Cities Framework developed by KeTTHA and MIP, as their guideline for its transition to a Low Carbon City in 2010. The framework consists of four main areas; Urban Environment, Urban Transport, Urban Infrastructure and Buildings. These main areas are then split up into 35 subcriteria for low carbon performance. The project aims to facilitate the introduction of low carbon initiatives in the participating cities, through policy support, improving awareness and local capacities, and encouraging investments in low carbon technologies. Green Technology Application for the Development of Low Carbon Cities MBPJ, KeTTHA with funding from UNDP-GEF Low Carbon City Action Plan MBPJ and Carbon Trust The plan aims to reduce the city’s greenhouse gas emissions by 10% by 2020, 20% by 2025 and 30% by 2030, all relative to the baseline year 2014. This is to be achieved be reducing energy consumption in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, more efficient new developments, increased renewable energy installation and a shift away from individual, fossil fuel based vehicles. Carbon Management Plan MBPJ and Carbon Trust Staff energy saving MBPJ staff Urban greening MBPJ The plan outlines a suite of specific measures, targeting a 25% reduction in MBPJ’s organisational greenhouse gas emissions compared to 2014. These measures include switching street lighting to LEDs, upgrading cooling systems and building fabric and installing photovoltaics in a number of MBPJ buildings. Energy reducing behaviours including: switching office lights off during the lunch break, increasing the office temperature to 24 degrees and switching computers to hibernation mode when not in use. These changes are implemented alongside switching of office lighting to LEDs, and a planned introduction of ISO 50001 (energy management) certification of municipal operations. MBPJ also purchased 20 electric motorcycles for the use of community service staff. A tree planting programme and forest conservation activities. GBI requirements for new buildings MBPJ and builders/developers New bungalows and semi-detached housing must be fitted with rainwater harvesting equipment. Commercial and mixed commercial developments, must in addition to rainwater harvesting, also follow water and energy standards for the GBI, utilize LED lighting, live up to the requirements of the Urban Stormwater Management Manual and reserve 10-15% of the total development area for green space. Homeowner energy efficiency rebate MBPJ A tax incentive scheme for homeowners to retrofit their houses for energy and water efficiency, and better waste management. The scheme offers a tax rebate of up to 100% of the cost of the retro-fit or RM500, whichever is lower. 23 During consultations with MBPJ staff, the officials identified the following city land use management and disaster-related policies and activities as ones that could contribute to overall climate adaptation efforts. The MBPJ Drainage Master Plan and Rainwater Management Plan addresses the issues of future development coordination and flood damages minimisation for the north area of Petaling Jaya (MBPJ 2017b). The master plans aim to formulate long-term solutions to drainage and flooding issues through implementation of integrated rainfall management in existing development areas in order to reduce the impact of flooding on residents and their properties. The master plans also aim to optimise the effectiveness of existing rainfall runoff infrastructure in affected areas. MBPJ set up its Natural Disaster Operations Centre to function as an information centre to handle logistics and technical aspects during any natural disasters. Fourteen council halls throughout the municipality will be used as disaster relief centres in the event of an emergency. In 2015, 23 personnel under the supervision of the Enforcement Department were involved in patrolling 50 identified hot spots in Petaling Jaya and providing disaster assistance as the rescue team ‘Skuad Pantas’. The primary weather-related disasters to which Skuad Pantas responds are heavy rain, flash floods and fallen trees (Tan 2015). MBPJ’s Skuad Pantas’ main tasks are to (MBPJ 2017a): • • • • • • identify disaster events such as fire, flooding, landslide and fallen trees due to storms; activate team members on duty to the disaster location and operation centre (if needed); prepare any rescue equipment needed for operation; provide early disaster assessment and information to the management; inform other relevant internal departments as well as external agencies responsible for disaster rescue; and prepare a full report on the disaster within 24 hours. MPAJ Policies and Plans for Development and Resilience As indicated previously, MPAJ refers to the Selangor State Structural Plan 2020 (2005-2020) in developing its LPs (JPBD 2007). The Ampang Jaya Local Plan (Amended 2) 2020 was gazetted in January 2016 after going through seven main stages according to the legal requirements of Act 172. The local plan covers the whole area under MPAJ’s administration within the two districts of Gombak and Hulu Langat. The overall area of 143.5 km2 is divided into three mukims (sub-districts), which are Hulu Klang sub-district and part of Setapak subdistrict in Gombak, and Ampang sub-district in Hulu Langat. The plan covers area that is bordered on the northern part by Mukim Setapak, which is partly under the administration of DBKL. The Ampang Jaya Local Plan was developed with eight objectives in mind: to translate policies outlined in the NPP and SSP into physical form and evaluate the success of their implementation; to formulate development strategies that are appropriate for areas under MPAJ; to establish a framework for land use development to develop areas under MPAJ based on relevant issues and potential; to provides measures for protection and improvement of the environment, preserve topography, trees and historic sites and buildings with aesthetic values within the MPAJ areas; plan provision of open/recreational areas for beautification and landscaping; plan development of traffic and communication networks; provide guidelines for development including aspects of urban design, housing, industry, businesses, infrastructure and utilities provision, community facilities and others; and provide guidelines and framework on aspects related to agriculture, retention, conservation and management of the environment (MPAJ 2016). While there is no mention of hazard zoning within its urban planning, one of the criteria for categorisation of development blocks for the MPAJ local plan is Conservation Area. Nearly half of the area under MPAJ is categorised as conservation area, mainly for Simpang Ampang and 24 Hulu Gombak Forest Reserves. As the local plan refers to the SSP 2020, it adopts the multifocus strategies of the state structural plan, which include preservation and conservation of Environmentally Sensitive areas such as permanent forest reserves, hilly and steep slope areas, as well as water catchment areas. Indirectly, preservation of forested areas and prohibition of building on steep slopes can help reduce some landslide and flooding risk, and decrease the overall urban heat island effect. Table 7: MPAJ mitigation policies and programmes Plan or Activity SEDA-MPAJ energy audit Resident Community Gardens Key Agencies or Groups MPAJ and Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) MPAJ Youth and Community Department Overview MPAJ has been in discussion with SEDA to embark on energy consumption audit and energy reduction measures for MPAJ building. MPAJ is providing RM2000 equipment and seed grant to resident committees interested in establishing community gardens in their neighbourhoods. At present, there are five community gardens utilising vacant plots of land Bukit Indah Phase One, Bukit Indah Phase Three, Merpati Flat in Pandan Indah, Pandan Mewah and Keramat AU2. MPAJ developed its Risk Management Master Plan for Natural Disaster (2012-2016) to ensure identified disasters are handled properly by the right personnel in the event of an incident and avoid significant loss and/or damage (MPAJ nd). As such, the plan focuses primarily on disaster relief and rescue with little attention to pre-disaster risk management and planning. In the master plan, proper handling of the identified risks is elaborated in the action plans. Action plans established in the master plan are: • • • • • • • Action Plan for Rescuing Victims Trapped in Elevators Action Plan for Fire Incident at Menara MPAJ Risk Management Plan for Natural Disaster Slope Management Plan Action Plan and Communication Manual for Crisis Action Plan for the Information Security Management System (ISMS) Organisational Integrity Plan The Risk Management Plan for Natural Disaster outlines the necessary actions to be taken in the event of non-fatal incidents involving fallen trees, flooding, and landslides that do not involve any damages. It aims to ensure initial assistance in emergencies within 15 to 30 minutes depending on traffic conditions; ensure that all officers and personnel-in-charge are able to implement relief operations according to the action plan and in compliance to safety requirements; and lead coordination of initial assistance in accordance to the National Security Council’s Directive No 20 - before handing additional response over to the Emergency and Disaster Management Committee. Actions described under the Plan include ensuring no road blockage due to fallen trees to avoid a traffic jam, initial evacuation of flooding victims to shelters, and providing logistical assistance as well as temporary shelters to landslide victims. MPAJ’s Enforcement Department and its emergency response team known as ‘Skuad Pantas’ are responsible for operating the local emergency hotline and control room, securing key information on complaints and/or disaster events for further action, and undertaking early disaster assessments of fallen trees, flooding and landslides. About 48% of monitored slopes in MPAJ are located on private property, complicating maintenance. In March 2010, MPAJ launched its Guidelines on Slope Maintenance for the Public to educate residents and the public on slope monitoring and maintenance. It explains 25 precautionary measures possible to reduce risks of slope failure, provides easy to understand tips on how to maintain slopes, gives pictorial guidance on how to detect signs of a potential landslide, and informs the public on relevant authorities to contact in the event of an emergency or landslide incident. The Slope Management Plan was also developed to ensure new applications for development on slopes comply with the latest guidelines related to slope development; ensure monitoring of slopes on council land is carried out according to schedule; and ensure that maintenance of slopes on council land is executed. Following the fatal slope failure incident in December 2008 (refer back to Table 2). MPAJ established a task force together with multiple partners such as Slope Engineering Division of the Department of Works, Selangor’s Housing and Property Board, Land and the District Offices of Gombak and Hulu Langat to begin monitoring for slope failure. The city identified 28 slopes in need of critical and urgent failure mitigation and maintenance, as well as the need for a dedicated unit to address slope failures in Ampang Jaya. On 3 December 2009, MPAJ became the first local authority with an internal Slope Division. The division now monitors 349 slope locations, 182 of which are on council land and the remaining 167 on private land. Similar to DBKL, monitoring and mitigation of potential slope failure are important for reducing damages and loss of life during heavy rainfall events. The next section explores the implications of spatial, land use and socio-economic planning, within the context of shifting weather and climate-related hazards due to climate change, to generating climate risks for buildings. 26 Climate Risk Implications for Urban Green Building Efforts Climate change is altering the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather and climate-related hazards like heavy rainfall, heat waves and flooding (IPCC 2012). At the same time, cities throughout Asia are rapidly expanding, shifting the landscapes in which the cities are built and creating new opportunities and climate risks for residents, businesses and urban infrastructure (Friend et al 2014; Du et al 2016). Cities’ locations are critical in their exposure to climate-related hazards, with many cities in Asia – like Greater KL – located in floodplains or coastal areas. Land use change and the way urban infrastructure is constructed, including buildings, contribute to the overall vulnerability and propensity of the infrastructure to suffer damage during climate-related hazards. Climate change adaptation is not yet specifically mainstreamed into municipal policies or programmes. Some of the cities are beginning to consider climate risks and the need for responding to these risks over the short (>5 years), mid- (5 to 20 years) and long-term (+20 years) given planning horizons and the lifetime of infrastructure. In the absence of explicit mention of climate adaptation planning, each study municipality has a few policies in place that can add to overall urban climate resilience. Buildings often serve as the first line of defence against natural hazards to protect occupants, assets and productivity. Climate risks to infrastructure – the types of impacts that could occur should certain weather or climate-related hazards happen – result from the interaction of building vulnerability, exposure and the type and severity of hazard. There are multiple types of weather and climate-related hazards to which buildings are exposed. Exposure is essentially due to the location of a building in a hazard-prone area, such as a floodplain. In the Greater KL region, the dominant hazards are flooding, heat waves, haze and landslides. Climate Risks to Urban Infrastructure Climate risks to infrastructure result from the interaction of vulnerability, exposure and the type and severity of hazard. In the greater KL region, buildings are exposed to flash flooding, heat waves, haze and landslides. Building vulnerability is due to policies – land use zoning, building codes, etc. - and their enforcement, coordination between responsible agencies, construction quality, quality of building materials and maintenance. The vulnerability of buildings is determined through a combination of factors, including: policies, construction materials, building façade type, and quality of construction, building orientation and style, and maintenance. Policy and coordination of policy Buildings are often the first line of defence development and implementation are protecting people and assets from hazard important components of vulnerability; a impacts. Resilient infrastructure is robust building might be constructed to meet and functional during a hazard event, is not certain energy standards set by the located within hazard prone areas, and urban planning committee but not be sustains minimal damage so that repairs are able to withstand severe wind or heavy also minimal. The integration of multi-hazard rainfall impacts as specified by the resilient design principles with green disaster risk reduction committee. Or a building principles in an integrated design building might be constructed within a and building framework and policies that floodplain even knowing that damage is mainstream climate change adaptation are likely to happen. Design codes and important in realising resilient, low carbon specifications may not be current and urban areas. reflect shifting the shifting frequency and intensity of extreme weather hazards, or new hazards for which a city has little experience. In other words, the vulnerability of buildings is entirely due to human choices and actions. What are some climate risks facing Greater KL’s buildings due to shifting hazards and potentially outdated building codes and land use plans? 27 Urban Heat Island and Heat Waves Numerous studies reviewed by Elsayed (2012) demonstrate that the commercial centres of Kuala Lumpur are 2° to 7°C hotter than surrounding countryside. The urban heat island effects of Kuala Lumpur are not caused by climate change, but by urban development. As the number of buildings has increased, green spaces are being reduced, causing temperatures to rise. Building and road materials – concrete, steel, glass, asphalt and brick – absorb and release more heat back into the city. Air conditioning units, cars and other equipment are all heat sources. The configuration (layout) of buildings and roads can also reduce ventilation (wind flow through the city) that help to disperse heat. Greater climate variability and change are increasing the number of hot days and length of heat waves in Greater KL. As shown in Figure 7, the number of hot days per year is likely to increase 30 to 60% by 2041-2060, and almost double by 2081-2100 when compared with the past. Urban plans for development and land use, and buildings constructed today will impact Greater KL’s urban heat island effects for multiple decades – at least 50 to 70 years. Heat-related climate risks need to be considered when developing urban plans and specifying building codes. Table 8: Heat-related risks for buildings (Hall 2011; Nikolowski et al 2013; Ghaffarianhoseini et al 2016; Opitz-Stapleton et al 2016; Holmes 2016; Houska 2016; Haggag 2007) Heat-Related Risks The number of hot days in Greater KL is exacerbated by KL’s urban heat island effect and is likely to increase because of climate change. Building Resilience Measures Heat stress thresholds for building occupants and the likely increase in the number of hot days and heat waves needs to be considered in building design and building standards. Heat waves and high temperatures do not often cause direct damage to buildings. Heatrelated risks in buildings are related to: • Poor ventilation and thermal comfort for occupants leading to heat stress and heat stroke for people. • Increased internal building temperatures causing damage to equipment, particularly – computers, manufacturing equipment and other electronics Design measures incorporating site design, vegetative shielding, building orientation, building skins, energy-efficient windows, ventilation and interior room location can improve buildings’ resilience to heat. Some standard protective measures include overhangs and setbacks to protect windows and provide shading. However, granite and marble can experience bowing and heat deformation, causing damage to building exteriors. Direct solar radiation and heat loading cause the most deformation in building stones. Buildings with single-layer glass skins and/or without adequate ventilation trap internally generated heat and allow solar radiation and exterior heat to enter the building. Air conditioning demand increases during heat waves and days when the urban heat island effect is strong, particularly in poorly constructed buildings. This leads to: • Increased energy consumption • Increased heat released into the urban environment • Increased emissions Low-emittence (low-E) glazing on windows can reduce solar heat gain, provide glare control and allow a maximum amount of sunlight into the building interior. Energy-efficient windows are more resistant to condensation formation. Double-skin façades (DSFs) – a second skin positioned over the interior building skin – can: • reflect solar radiation and heat away from the building interior to reduce air conditioning needs • improve ventilation • direct daylight further into the building interior and reduce lighting requirements. • protect stone accents from direct solar radiation The above can help maintain habitability during power outages in heat waves. 28 All three LAs are promoting expansion of urban green spaces and tree planting for carbon sequestration and enhancing city liveability. Urban green spaces also can assist in offsetting the UHI and enhancing thermal comfort, as well as improving air and water quality (Demuzere et al 2014). However, climate change does pose risks to urban greening programmes. Climate change is influencing the spread and range of plant fungal and bacterial diseases, along with pest insects, and may threaten urban greening efforts (Tubby and Webber 2010). Different plant species have various hydrological and climatological growth requirements, and Figure 9: Examples of DSF for building passive ventilation climate change may alter (Ghaffarianhoseini et al. 2016: 1054). When combined with urban temperatures, humidity and green corridors, appropriate spacing and siting of adjacent precipitation beyond the buildings and vegetation screens, UHI impacts on buildings can liveability requirements of some be reduced. types of vegetation being planted to make a greener Greater KL. The choice of vegetation – trees, grasses, shrubs, etc. – should account for potential shifts in temperatures, drought length and frequency and air pollution, as well as the spread of native and non-native plant diseases and pests, otherwise costs may be incurred. Prior to the 2009 launch of Malaysia’s Green Building Index, few of the buildings in Greater KL adhered to green building standards. The use of DSFs to reduce heat-related risks to building occupants and equipment remains low in Greater KL (Kandar and Rehmani 2010) - though, notable examples include the LEO office of the Ministry of Energy, Water and Communication and the Menara Mesiniaga. Malaysia’s Green Building Index Rating System provides a number of benchmark attributes, such as mould prevention or thermal comfort that are dependent on weather and climatic conditions, but do not specifically account for climate change. The mould provision in the GBI Design Reference Guide – Non-Residential New Construction, for example, lists that controls should be put in place to prevent rainwater leakage through roof and walls and prevent groundwater intrusion into basements, but does not provide recommendations for seeking design specifications that incorporate climate change concerns for dealing with rainfall of different intensities and durations. The thermal comfort criteria for buildings currently being constructed are to adhere to Malaysian Standards MS 1525 (2007) and ASHRAE 55 (2010) – both of which do not account for shifts in diurnal temperatures, alteration of wind flow, increasing heat waves and worsening urban heat islands. Coordination between the Department of Standards Malaysia and the Malaysia Meteorological Department could be beneficial in exploring potential shifts in various weather and climatic conditions over the short, medium and long terms to recommend new design and construction standards depending on the expected lifetime of the building. 29 Air Pollution and Haze The principle sources of air pollution with the Klang Valley are vehicle emissions (~76% of emission loads in 2012), followed by emissions related to energy generation and use for things like air conditioning, lighting and industrial usage and land use change (Ahmat et al 2015; Ling et al 2010). As the population in the Greater KL conurbation has grown, more land is being converted to commercial, industrial and residential buildings and energy demand and emissions have increased. Additional pollution sources contributing to haze and poor air quality include forest fires and windblown dust. Urban heat islands and heat waves accelerate the formation of smog (ozone) and ground level pollution (Gorsevksi et al 1998). Additionally, acid rain can form when nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide from vehicle and power plant emissions combine and are trapped in raindrops. Pollution and haze pose risks to building facades and materials. Figure 10: Corrosion at junction of dissimilar metals (MECF nd). Table 9: Air pollution and haze risks to buildings (Cardell et al 2008; Houska 2016; Efficient Windows Collaborative 2016; MECF nd) Air Pollution Risks Building Resilience Measures Ozone (haze), high humidity and acid rain corrode building skins and cores. Certain construction materials, like concrete with high limestone content or stone, are more prone to corrosion than others. Junctures where two different materials, such as steel reinforcing and alumninum posts, tend to greater corrosion as well. Building corrosion can damage façade materials and building skin, as well impact the structural integretity of the building frame. Stainless steel and glass withstand ozone and acid rain corrosion fairly well. Having to repair or replace building materials due to corrosion – or damage from other natural hazards – is often costly and reduces the overall energy efficiency and environmental sustainability of a building. The population of the Greater KL region is increasing rapidly, with more people driving. Emissions from vehicles, buildings and power plants are expected to increase. At the same time, Greater KL is experiencing warmer temperatures due to its urban heat island. Climate change is also expected to increase the number of heat waves. All of these factors mean that haze and air pollution in the region are likely to increase in the future. Care must be taken when selecting the type of low-E window glazing – such as those with high silver content – as some types are more prone to corrosion in high pollution areas than others. Picking corrosion resistant low-E window glaze and building skin materials reduces maintenance costs, improves overall energy efficiency and the environmental sustainability of the building. DSFs and vegetation can help protect more corrosion-prone materials that might be used to make the building more aesthetically pleasing. 30 Wind Loads Thunderstorms, such as those that bring extreme rainfall to Greater KL, often have significant wind gusts. Wind eddies and flow are also affected by the spacing and orientation of closely-placed skyscrapers and high-rise buildings in urban areas (Nanduri et al 2013; Cheung and Liu 2011). Multi-storied buildings without outriggers or lateral support systems can have a lateral displacement of greater than 2m between the base and the top due to wind loads, placing considerable strain on buildings and contributing to column failure in the building core. Given the increasing rates of building densification, and the potential intensification of storms due to climate change, it is likely that wind loads on Greater KL building infrastructure is likely to increase in the future. Figure 11: External wind and seismic forces acting upon high-rise buildings (Nanduri et al 2013: 77). Table 10: Wind loading risks to buildings (Bitsuamlak et al 2010) Wind Loading Risks Building Resilience Measures Climate change is likely to increase the intensity (strength) of storms over Greater KL. Stronger storms are likely to be accompanied by stronger winds and wind gusts. Coordination and planning of building orientation, spacing and height is necessary between the urban planning department and building architects. Wind shear due to wind bursts in thunderstorms and due to eddies off of nearby buildings place significant strain and loading on buildings. Computational flow dynamic models or other types of very high resolution models are necessary to determine the optimal siting, height and orientation of a new building to minimise wind loading on adjacent buildings and not reduce passive ventilation measures. Buildings too closely spaced or not oriented correctly can reduce the effectiveness of passive ventilation measures (e.g. DSFs) introduced to improve and individual building’s energy efficiency and reduce the need for air conditioning. Increased wind loads can also cause significant damage to solar PV, rainwater harvesting and green roof/ wall systems introduced on energy efficient buildings. Additionally, such models need to account for higher wind loads and gusts that are possible due to stronger storms. Building lateral support systems may need to be redesigned to reduce building damage replacement costs. Siting and anchoring of solar PV or green roof systems also need to consider stronger wind loads. 31 Extreme Rainfall and Flooding The Greater KL valley is subject to flash flooding and waterlogging to its hilly topography channelling rainfall down to the Klang River, urban development with impervious surfaces, poor solid waste management inhibiting drainage and constricting the Klang and its tributaries, and heavy rainfall events (Zakaria et al 2004; Bahrum and Malek 2016). Flash flooding can occur during intense, localised rainstorms. Extended flooding (waterlogging) occurs during rainfall events persisting over consecutive days when soil conditions are saturated. As discussed in previous sections, the intensity of extreme rainfall events has increased over the Greater KL region and is likely to continue to increase in the future because of climate change. Table 11: Extreme rainfall and flooding risks to buildings (Amirebrahimi et al 2015; Becker 2008; FEMA 1999; Lstiburek 2006; Weston et al 2010; NYC Department of City Planning 2013). Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risks Building Resilience Measures Climate change is likely to increase the intensity (amount of rainfall in a period of time) of heavy rainfall events. At the same time, the increase of impervious surfaces like buildings and roads prevents the absorption of rain. These factors contribute to worsening flash floods and waterlogging. Methods for protecting the building and internal assets include: • raising building foundation above the new flood depths likely due to heavier rain and urban development, • materials that are resilient to water damage and scouring, • wall cladding to reduce water leakage and facilitate building drying in Greater KL’s hot and humid climate, • using the ground and first floors of buildings for nonessential activities to minimise asset loss, • sealing building skins against water intrusion, and • working with urban planners to selectively install floodwalls and flood retention vegetation to carefully route flood waters away from all buildings in a vicinity Increasing urbanisation and intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall will alter the nature of flood events around Greater KL. It is already being observed in other urban areas that what was once the 100-year flood has become the 20-year flood, in some instances. Flood frequencies (recurrence intervals) and depths need to be updated to account for urbanisation impacts and climate change impacts related to rainfall. Flood damage to buildings results from: • flood depth and velocity, • building materials’ susceptibility to water damage, • length of time portions of the building is submerged, • impact loads from flood debris Damage to building assets and utilities (e.g. air conditioning, water and sewage pipes) occurs due to inundation and contamination in flood water. Wet building materials can quickly mould in Greater KL’s hot, humid climate, creating unhealthy working and living conditions for building occupants. Flood design practices incorporating projected changes in flood characteristics due to urban development and climate change are necessary. This requires coordination with the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, and other relevant agencies that research and monitor historic flood elevations and probabilities of occurrence, working to determine how baseline flood conditions might change in the future, and what the new flood zones and flood elevations might be. Design specifications of flood-resistant building techniques for all buildings located within a base flood elevation zone – such as the projected 100-year flood zone in 2060 – need to be developed and required for all building retrofits and new construction. These are policy arrangements that require coordination between multiple government agencies for flood risk assessment, building design and urban development policy formulation, implementation and enforcement. 32 Urban infrastructure, from government and private sector buildings, roadways and stormwater management systems, has long life times and cycles spanning multiple decades. While spatial land use planning is encouraging urban green spaces and flood retention/detention planning, the planning has not been updated to reflect the possible shifts in weather and climate-related hazard frequencies and intensities. It is more difficult to revert or convert existing land use types (e.g. buildings or roads) back to green space, and building repairs post-hazard event can be costly. Land use zoning and flood plain management practices can either enhance urban resilience or lock-in climate risks for existing and future development. It is cheaper and more energy efficient to reduce materials use by avoiding the need for massive building repairs by incorporating flexible zoning and design specifications for new and retrofitted buildings. Figure 12: Flooding in Kuala Lumpur. Source: The New Straits Times Press. Figure 12: Flooding in Kuala Lumpur. Source: The New Straits Times Press. Preservation of green spaces and open flood plains, in conjunction with waste management is important in reducing flood depths and velocities, and improving rainfall infiltration during storms. Municipalities in Greater KL have instituted a number of flood management projects such as the SMART Tunnel, detention ponds and Gombak and Keroh flood diversions that have reduced current flash flood prone areas. However, it is not clear that these flood management projects accounted for climate change shifts in extreme rainfall events, or in the actual implementation of building codes requiring land developers to put in sufficient drainage. Thus future flash flooding area, depths and velocities may increase and cause significant damage to existing and planned urban infrastructure. The 2011 National Hydrology Plan discusses the need for integrated river basin management and coordinating with the Malaysian Meteorological Service to improve flood forecasting and management planning, but it is not clear from the respective agency websites or publications if such cooperation has been implemented. Figure 13: Example of building design flood specifications for buildings located within the floodplain, from New York City (NYC Planning 2013: 17). 33 Recommendations From the consultations and policy review, it would appear that proactive disaster and climate risk management, other than for slope failure management and flooding, has only recently begun to be examined by decision makers. Municipal plans related to disaster risk management are focused primarily upon disaster response; mainstreaming of adaptation measures into urban local plans and structure plans has yet to be done. Significant efforts are (rightly) being invested in green buildings and low carbon urban development; but consideration of the shifting nature of weather and climate-related hazards on urban buildings and infrastructure is emergent in the three study municipalities. All three study municipalities include hazard prone areas such as steep slopes, increasing impervious surfaces funnelling runoff into low-lying terrain, and areas adjacent to rivers – not to mention undergoing rapid population growth and urban expansion. Some of the measures that could build resilience to weather and climate-related hazards, such as building codes and zoning regulations could less effective if they are not regularly updated to incorporate the latest climate change projections, as well as other changes including shifts to societal structures, demography, environmental degradation, poverty and inequality. Policy tools for urban and country planning should incorporate climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management considerations and good practice. Decision making gaps between policy formulation at the national level and implementation at the local levels, as well as knowledge gap between academia, decision makers and the public need to be closed in order to allow for municipalities in Greater KL and throughout Malaysia to prepare for climate change. This study could only provide a broad policy and urban climate risks overview, and potential implications for low carbon development in municipalities in the Greater KL area. Nonetheless, a number of lessons and good practice approaches are emerging from urban resilience initiatives, such as the ‘100 Resilience Cities’ or the ‘Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network’, on integrating climate resilience and low carbon development through a more holistic, sustainable approach. We make the following recommendations that could initiate integrated CCM and CCA processes to build urban resilience. 1. Climate Policy Integration and Coherence While mitigation measures address climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emission and increase in carbon sequestration, adaptation responds to climate change by preparing community and ecosystem to cope with changing conditions. Input gathered during consultation interviews with the three study municipalities found that there was limited integration between climate change mitigation policy and practice and climate change adaptation policy and practice. For example, little or no consideration was given to adaptation and resilience building objectives in the development of low carbon policies. Rationale for integration Lack of coherence between the two components of climate action may result not only in shortfall or failure to achieve projected policy targets, it also can lead to inefficient use of limited resources as co-benefit and synergies go unharnessed. The lack of consideration of mitigation in adaptation initiatives could lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while lack of consideration of adaptation in mitigation initiatives could lead to underperformance due to direct climate hazards, as well as increase the vulnerability of communities. Promoting activities that contribute to both climate objectives can also increase the efficiency of fund allocation and reduce trade-offs (Locatelli et al 2016). Integration of climate change mitigation and adaptation in programming can also lead to reducing administrative burdens, minimising duplication, as well as reducing conflicts between in policies. Reframing implemented measures as contributing towards climate change mitigation as well as climate change adaptation also expand its scope in terms of eligibility for external funding application. This is particularly important for adaptation as funding for adaptation and resilience building is relatively more limited compared to funding for mitigation. 34 Barriers to Integration Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the study municipalities are mostly managed by separate departments or units, with knowledge gaps in understanding the linkages and intersection between climate change mitigation and adaptation. Climate change mitigation and adaptation have also become increasingly specialized, and as such may require significant capacity building efforts to effectively address both aspects simultaneously. The need for capacity building should be addressed both for individual practitioners in key positions to influence both issues, as well as overall capacity at department and organisational levels to address various aspects of mitigation and adaptation. This will ensure that teams, departments and committees have the necessary competencies to identify and integrate synergies between the two. Approaches to address barriers and facilitate integration The following approaches are being used in global urban resilience initiatives and are also advocated in the National Policy on Climate Change. • Assess climate change knowledge gaps. Strengthen understanding of linkages and the intersection between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation. • Reduce capacity and knowledge constraints through training, education and awareness activities. • Strengthen climate change mitigation and adaptation coordination by establishing an interdepartmental and inter-agency governance mechanism (i.e.: task force, committee or working group) with a mandate from top management. • Provide resources, including financial incentives, and assistance to LAs in applying to participate in emerging urban climate resilience programmes Table 12: Examples of potential synergies or risks in implemented measures by study municipalities due to lack of climate change mitigation and adaptation integration: Activity Energy efficiency targets Target objective CCM: greenhouse gas emission reduction from reduced energy consumption Provision of EV charging stations Green buildings CCM: greenhouse gas emission reduction from reduced fossil fuel consumption CCM: GHG emission, natural resource and water use reductions, preservation of urban green spaces and sensitive ecological areas Tree-planting activities CCM: carbon sinks Others: greenery and shading Potential co-benefits and/or risks CCA: potential under-performance due to increase in ambient temperature, more heat waves and shifting wind patterns. Net result is that energy consumption increases for cooling. Some passive cooling and building ventilation measures might reduce increasing thermal burden on building occupants CCA: potential asset exposure due to expansion or shift of flood and/or landslide prone areas due to urbanisation and climate change CCA: potential asset exposure to due to expansion or shift of flood and/or landslide prone areas due to urbanisation and climate change. Increased damage to building skins, cores and internal assets if design specifications do not account for potential of stronger storms. Ensuring design codes reflect potential climate shifts can increase building resilience and reduce need to replace building materials due to storm damage. CCA: UHI mitigation, prevent soil erosion, improve soil water retention capacity, wind- and water barrier. However, plants need to be selected that can survive anticipated climate changes, including new diseases and pests. 35 2. Local Adaptation and Resilience Building Frameworks Local authorities are often in the front line of preparing for and responding to hazards and disasters on the ground. In a world exposed to a wide range of multifaceted hazards and risks, including those exacerbated by climate change, adaptation and disaster risk reduction often requires significant resources and capacities. However, if the risks are addressed through an iterative and learning risk management process, the depth and breadth of impacts could be reduced and some disasters could be prevented. Internationally, there are a number of good practice approaches and adaptation planning frameworks emerging for building urban resilience. We highlight the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR - 2012) checklist of “10 essentials for making cities resilient” to guide the discussion for forward action in the study municipalities. Table 13: Examples of potential adaptation and resilience building action to be undertaken by study municipalities using the UNISDR checklist UNISDR Resilient Cities checklist 1. Institutional and Administrative Framework Potential Actions for MPAJ, MBPJ and DBKL • Strengthen climate change mitigation and adaptation coordination by establishing an inter-departmental and interagency governance mechanism (i.e.: task force, committee or working group) with a mandate from top management • Develop action plan and/or standard operating procedures for climate-related disasters. E.g. review of MAPJ Pelan Pengurusan Bencana Alam Risk Management Document (2012-2016) 2. Financing and Resources • Develop strategy for resource mobilization, including local, state and federal sources of public funding, mobilisation of private sector funding and incorporation of grants from national or international donors. • Explore use of financial tools, such as insurance. • Reframing of policies in terms of climate change adaptation, mitigation and resilience opens possibilities for external funding or co-funding, for local capacity building, policy development and intervention measure implementation. 3. Multi-hazard Risk Assessment - Know your Risk • Expansion of hazard mapping exercises such as DBKL’s KULSIS and MPAJ’s critical slope mapping to include other hazards (i.e.: flash flooding, seasonal flooding, UHI nucleus, etc.), as well as socio-economic and biophysical vulnerabilities hotspots (i.e: low income areas, immigrants enclave, senior citizen communities/clusters, orang asli communities etc.) • This should include climate projections and be at least at asset lifetime time scale, i.e. 30-40 years or more. • Institute a cycle of conducting multi-hazard risk assessments every 5 years to reflect knew knowledge and the economic planning cycles. 4. Infrastructure Protection, Upgrading and Resilience • Land use zoning, building design codes and recommendations for materials need to account for shifts in weather and climaterelated hazards over the asset lifetime time scale. • Multi-hazard risk management approaches are needed, along with incorporating flexibility, safe failure, redundancy and robustness principles into infrastructure. • This will require the national ministries and LAs to coordinate with universities and research institutes to understand the latest climate projections and how to integrate them into planning processes. 36 UNISDR Resilient Cities checklist 5. Protect Vital Facilities: Education and Health Potential Actions for MPAJ, MBPJ and DBKL • Medical facilities, power plants, waste and drinking water plants and schools are critical infrastructure that should be able to continue to function during and after major hazards, and transportation networks remain open to move people to critical facilities during disasters. • The three municipal areas should review critical infrastructure exposure based on the current and projected hazard maps, and target additional retrofitting, setbacks or modifications as needed to make the facilities robust. 6. Building Regulations and Land Use Planning • Updating of existing building codes to incorporate resilience measures based on climate projections, at least at asset lifetime timescales. • Integrate hazard map and vulnerability assessment in zoning and land-use policies and plans. • Institute interdepartmental cooperation and communication around vulnerability and risk assessment • Establish a task force whose role includes regularly conducting the urban vulnerability and risk assessment, and communicating implications to other departments for mainstreaming into policies, plans and actions. 7. • Based on the hazard map, current and projected at-risk communities should be targeted with awareness raising efforts and guidelines for household-scale resilience interventions and disaster preparedness. • Utilize civil society through local community leaders, community-based associations and interest groups to act as champions and agents of change at the community level • Ensure facilitation in all relevant languages, and appropriate channels of communications, particularly in relation to immigrant and Orang Asli communities • Collaborate with Universities, State and Federal authorities and other relevant governing bodies and centres of knowledge Training, Education and Public Awareness 8. Environmental Protection and Strengthening of Ecosystems • Incorporate ecosystem based adaptation measures for flood management, wetland, river-bank and slope maintenance and restoration. • Enhance conservation efforts of forest and watershed areas • Continue to improve solid waste management, sewerage and stormwater networks to urban slum and low income areas. • Ensure that urban greening initiatives are selecting plants that are resilient to climate change, pests and diseases • Consider expansion of the urban community garden programmes of MPAJ to other LAs in the Greater KL region. 9. Effective Preparedness, Early Warning and Response • Ensure efficient coordination with NADMA and other relevant authorities • Explore crowd-sourcing of real-time disaster data, through remote sensing and/or social media • Ensure redundancy and backup power to monitoring stations and warning systems so that these remain functional during and after a hazard event. 10. Recovery and Rebuilding Communities • Build bounce-forward capacity for disaster response and rebuilding. This means taking a multi-hazard approach to rebuild communities so that they are more resilient against future hazards, rather than rebuilding according to the old codes and standards that contributed to community vulnerability in the first place. 37 3. Integrated Design Approaches Balancing Building Objectives Constructing truly green and sustainable buildings requires treating development of green building standards and ideals as a process to be updated as conditions change and new experiences and knowledge emerge. Some initiatives and practice are beginning to incorporate guidance on dealing with multiple hazards, biodiversity and green infrastructure under a more encompassing integrated design framework. Resources from these initiatives that could be considered when updating Malaysia’s Green Building Index and local and structural plans include: Table 14: Some integrated design framework resources Integrated Design Approaches BREEAM – a sustainable assessment methodology and certification system for infrastructure, buildings and master plans Resources • Mitigation, adaptation, resilience: managing climate change risk through BREEAM http://www.breeam.com/filelibrary/Briefing%20Papers/98689BREEAM-Resilience-Briefing-Note-v6.pdf • Explicitly incorporates local and shifting climate conditions Akadiri P, Chinyio E and Olomolaiye (2012). Design of a Sustainable Building: A Conceptual Framework for Implementing Sustainability in the Building Sector. Buildings 2: 126-152 • This paper examines multiple sustainable design frameworks and practices to develop a more encompassing and systemic framework. Some green building principles for energy efficiency and thermal comfort are grouped with natural hazard resilience under a single objective – Design for Human Adaptation. Whole Building Design Objectives from the National Institute of Building Sciences There are 9 Whole Building Design objectives – see https://www.wbdg.org/resources/whole-building-design: • Accessible – to meet the needs of disabled people • Aesthetics – physical appearance of the building elements and spaces • Cost-Effective – selecting building elements on the basis of lifecycle costs (including replacement costs due to weather and climate-related hazards) • Functional/Operational - spatial needs and requirements, durability and maintenance of elements • Historic Preservation • Productive – enables occupants physical and psychological comfort, including ventilation, lighting and thermal comfort • Secure/Safe – physical protection of occupants and assets from man-made and natural hazards • Sustainable – environmental performance of building elements and strategies 38 Annex: Methodology The research project worked with Carbon Trust and three local authority partners, namely Dewan Bandaraya Kuala Lumpur (DBKL), Majlis Bandaraya Petaling Jaya (MBPJ), and Majlis Perbandaran Ampang Jaya (MPAJ): 1. Identify climate risks to proposed green building projects; 2. Examine policies guiding and influencing low carbon urban development and the mainstreaming of climate change adaptation within such policies and practice 3. Identify gaps in policy and practice; and 4. Identify ways of incorporating considerations of climate and underlying non-climate risk drivers into low carbon strategies and urban design for the project roadmap. The work under the research project was divided into two parts: 1) a combination of desk-based literature review of urban risk assessment studies, urban and disaster planning documents, and journal articles related to climate risks to urban infrastructure and green building design; and 2) stakeholder consultations with various departments in the three local authorities. Consultations Consultations were conducted with a variety of departments from each local authority to gather information related to three broad topics: 1. identify current hazards and which areas of the city are most exposed; 2. discuss the major non-climate stresses (e.g. population growth) on city infrastructure and how these might change in the future; and, 3. discuss urban development visions and planning, and how disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation efforts are coordinated or merged with overall urban and infrastructure planning. Consultations were conducted using interview guides to collect information. The consultation findings are distilled throughout the report. Literature Review The literature review consisted of a rapid review of journal articles and grey literature – conference proceedings, governmental reports and policies, and hazard impact databases – concerning weather/climate-hazard impacts on buildings and building techniques. While there is significant, and on-going research into urban infrastructure vulnerability and climate risks – from examining urban flooding, lifeline impacts or impacts on electricity grids – our literature review was confined to impacts (current and anticipated) on buildings. Given Carbon Trust’s primary focus on low carbon building project pipelines in each of the three municipalities, and the short timeframe allotted for this sub-study, we confined our literature review to buildings. As such, the majority of the literature was confined to structural engineering, natural hazards, green building and climate risk sources. The consultations and literature review revealed that much work remains to be done in each of the three municipalities toward building urban climate resilience. Full urban sustainability incorporates not only low-carbon and green development principles, but also those related to multi-hazard risk reduction. 39 Climate Projections for Malaysia Climate projections of changes in precipitation and temperature-related hazards and risks were assessed from a variety of literature and the KNMI Climate Explorer tool. Projections of shifts in extreme weather are best done using high resolution numerical (Regional Climate Models) and statistical downscaling techniques. Many of the heavy rainfall events over the greater KL region are due to convective storms (thunderstorms) during the inter-monsoon periods. Climate models currently have a hard time replicating thunderstorm formation, although higher resolution models are better than the large-scale general circulation models. As a result, the ability to provide more robust ranges of potential changes in extreme rainfall events, from convective storms lasting a few hours to stratiform rains lasting several days, in particular months/seasons for various periods of the future is currently limited. This is evident in CMIP5 models’ inability to capture extreme rainfall variability and determine if future changes will exceed one standard deviation of current variabilty (hatching in Figure 6). However, overall extreme rainfall is expected to increase in intensity due to basic atmospheric physics; a warmer atmosphere has a higher moisture content and can generate stronger storms (IPCC 2012). More recent climate projections for Malaysia that utilise the CMIP5 suite of GCMs and the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways are not publicly available. Existing projections by MOSTI and NAHRIM are outdated – from 2009 and 2011 – respectively. Individual studies focusing on projections from a single GCM or RCM are available, but ranges of projected changes and uncertainty in the projections cannot be characterised from these studies – projections from multiple models are needed. Higher resolution, more current projections from a multi-model ensemble set for peninsular Malaysia and the greater KL region are expected to be publicly released in mid- to late-2017. Malaysia is participating in the Southeast Asia Regional Downscaling/ Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (SEACLID-CORDEX). SEACLID is downscaling a number of CMIP5 GCMs for Southeast Asia at a spatial resolution of 25km x 25km. The total ensemble consists of 14 different CMIP5 GCMs downscaled using 6 RCMs, for the representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 (assumes emissions stabilize) and RCP 8.5 (assumes emissions continue to grow). 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