Download Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees

Masteruppsats i offentlig förvaltning [VT10]
Förvaltningshögskolan, Göteborgs universitet
Elin Jakobsson
Handledare: Åsa Boholm
Examinatorer: Patrik Zapata, Björn Rombach
Global Policy Making on Climate
Refugees
- What is the problem?
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Abstract
This study starts out on the premise that, due to globalization, national politics of today live
an international life to an increasingly greater extent. Policy of today are often created within
a paradox where decisions are and need to be made at a supranational level while they cannot
be concretized or implemented without the political will at the national level. However, most
policy literature and policy analysis of today still concentrate on national policy making.
Considering the shift of policy making from the national to the global level, more insight is
needed on how the policy process works in the global policy arena.
The first phase of the policy process is where the policy problem is defined. This phase is
thought to have strong implications for the continuation of the policy process. Therefore, this
study focuses on the problem definition phase in a global context. The purpose is to identify
and explain the salient characteristics of a global policy problem and to characterize the
global problem definition phase.
The study is a qualitative text analysis, building on theories of policy problem definition
related to the policy case of climate refugees. Twelve policy documents from different global
policy actors are used to withdraw information on two questions: “What is the problem?” and
“How should the problem be addressed?”. The result is a number of dimensions that represent
different angles of the problem definition. The dimensions are then analyzed according to
Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005) seven characteristics of policy problems.
The study concludes that the problem definition is surprisingly congruent between the policy
actors, that the policy making on climate refugees faces great and difficult challenges and that
the multidimensional approach to problem definition is fruitful to use when analyzing global
policy problems.
Keywords: global policy making, climate refugees, climate migration, policy analysis,
problem definition, qualitative text analysis.
2
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Abbreviations
CARE - Cooperative for Assistance and Relief Everywhere
CCEMA – the Climate Change, Environment and Migration Alliance
EACH-FOR - Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios
EM-DAT – Emergency Events Database
EU – European Union
Greens/EFA – the Greens/European Free Alliance
IASC – Inter-Agency Standing Committe
ICRC – International Committee of the Red Cross
IDP – Internally Displaced Persons
IOM – International Organization for Migration
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
NGO – Non-Governmental Organization
NRC – Norwegian Refugee Council
OHCHR – Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
PACE – the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
RSG on the HR of IDPs – Representative of the Secretary-General on the human rights of
internally displaced persons
UN – United Nations
UNEP – United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNHCR – the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
UNISDR – United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
UNU – United Nations University
UNU-EHS – United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security
WBGU – German Advisory Council on Global Change
3
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Acknowledgements
I would like to give my regards to my supervisor, Professor Åsa Boholm, for helping me to put the
pieces together, to move the process forward and for patiently repeating her advices until I would
understand.
I would also like to thank Jörgen Ödalen at Uppsala University, project-leader for the research project
“Climate Migration and the Obligations of the Rich World”, for taking the time to discuss, read and
give useful comments on my work.
4
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Table of contents
1 PUBLIC POLICY IN A GLOBALIZED WORLD .................................................................................................................... 6
1.1 Research problem .................................................................................................................................................. 6
1.2 Purpose and research questions ............................................................................................................................ 7
1.3 General outline ...................................................................................................................................................... 8
2 PROBLEM DEFINITION IN THEORY.............................................................................................................................. 9
2.1 Stages of a policy process ...................................................................................................................................... 9
2.2 What is a policy problem?.................................................................................................................................... 10
2.3 What happens at the problem definition phase? ................................................................................................ 10
2.4 Analytical framework ........................................................................................................................................... 13
3 METHOD AND MATERIAL ...................................................................................................................................... 14
3.1 Choice of case ...................................................................................................................................................... 14
3.2 Choice of method................................................................................................................................................. 15
3.3 Choice of material ................................................................................................................................................ 15
3.4 Analyzing the results ............................................................................................................................................ 16
3.5 Limitations ........................................................................................................................................................... 16
4 THE CASE OF CLIMATE REFUGEES ............................................................................................................................ 18
4.1 Recognizing the Issue of Climate Migration ......................................................................................................... 18
4.2 Climate refugees in existing frameworks ............................................................................................................. 19
4.3 Estimates on numbers and future scenarios........................................................................................................ 20
4.4 Hot-spots ............................................................................................................................................................. 21
4.5 A shattered definition of climate refugees .......................................................................................................... 22
5 DEFINING THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE REFUGEES – WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? ................................................................... 24
5.1 Dimensions of definition I .................................................................................................................................... 24
5.2 Solubility, complexity and the question of scale .................................................................................................. 28
6 DEFINING THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE REFUGEES - HOW SHOULD THE PROBLEM BE ADDRESSED? ......................................... 31
6.1 Dimensions of definition II ................................................................................................................................... 31
6.2 Divisibility, monetarization, scope of activity and interdependencies................................................................. 34
7 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................................................................... 36
8 REFERENCES....................................................................................................................................................... 40
8.1 Books, reports and articles .................................................................................................................................. 40
8.2 Internet sources ................................................................................................................................................... 43
APPENDIX 1 – TABLE OF SAMPLED DOCUMENTS........................................................................................................... 44
APPENDIX 2 – DIMENSIONS DETECTED IN EACH DOCUMENT ........................................................................................... 45
5
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
1 Public policy in a globalized world
Globalization as a phenomenon is now widely recognized in the academic as well as in the
political world. The world is geographically and politically becoming increasingly
regionalized and globalized. The scale, the speed and the depth of political, economic and
social flow and interaction between distant communities is expanding. Globalists mean that
the current globalization process has reached unprecedented levels. In the context of
globalization, the sovereignty of states and national policy is declining. Policy decisions on a
global level have strong implications for national policy and for many contemporary policy
problems a global approach is needed for a substantial addressing of the problem. To be
added, an increasing amount of national policies have their origins in the global policy arena
and the distinction between international and national affairs is blurred (Held & McGrew
2003:4, 122; Reinecke 1998:52).
The global policy arena presents different conditions and assets to policy making than does
the national one. The challenges facing global policy making are many. The domain of global
policy problems are far away from their origin and score high on dimensions of time, distance
and resources (Morgan et al. 1999:272). There is also a different set of actors with mainly
different mandates. Even though states have a say in the global policy arena; NGOs,
international organizations and business companies are also important policy actors (Held &
McGrew 2003:12, Reinecke 1998:52, Soroos 1986:78-87). Policy procedures are another
challenge since they are not as specified on the global level as they are within states. For each
new global policy process decisions have to be made about the structure and routines for
meetings, discussions and voting (Soroos 1986:90f). Global policy problems mainly
distinguish from national ones in two ways. One is that it is subject for concern throughout
much of the world. The other is that it has been taken up by at least one of the international
institutions, such as the United Nations (Soroos 1991:4).
A policy domain that has been given much attention on the global policy arena in the last
decade is climate change and its effects. One of its possibly most serious effects is thought to
be the one on human migration. Due to sudden and slow environmental degradation, people
will be forced to leave their homes. Some of them will have to cross international borders.
Currently, they are faced with an uncertain future not being a defined category of migrants.
This phenomenon is already a fact and is also expected to grow substantially in the future.
(See for example Myers 1997) However, as a policy problem climate migration is still
relatively new on the international agenda and the policy process on the so called issue of
climate refugees has just begun.
1.1 Research problem
The global policy arena is paradoxical: at the same time as major policy problems are
approached on the global level the international community relies on the political will of
single states in order to effectively address an issue.
6
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
An illustrative way to see the differences between policy making on the global and the
national level is Morgan et al.s’ (1999:272) three dimensions. One is the time required to
implement or reverse choice. This dimension ranges from the time period of a political
election cycle to a generation to the lifetime of a nation or culture. Another dimension is the
cultural and political distance between parties. This can be everything from a family or a
nation to cultural blocks and beyond. The third and last dimension is resources required or at
stake. This dimension encompasses all from resources of an individual to resources of nations
or cultures. Most global policy problem score high on all these dimensions. National policy
problems have lower scores, that is they are much closer to their origin. The dimensions of
executing and change or reverse the policy are smaller in national policy. With global policy
problems though, the time needed to implement a decided policy is often long. The cultural
and political variety is much larger in the global policy arena than in the national one. And
finally, the resources at stake with most global policy problems are immense compared to on
the national level.
Most policy literature and policy analysis of today still concentrate on national policy making
(Nagel 1991:xiv). Considering the shift of policy making from the national to the global level,
more insight is needed on how the policy process works in the global policy arena.
Many writers (for example Dery 1984, Premfors 1989, Wildavsky 1979) argue that the way in
which a policy problem is defined is crucial for how the problem is addressed. The problem
definition sets the frames and the directions for the rest of the policy process. Since the
problem definition phase of a policy process have such strong implications for the rest of the
policy making process it is motivated to look into how problem definition functions in
different contexts, in this case the global policy arena.
The relevance of the problem definition phase together with the different conditions that
characterizes the global policy arena makes it a challenging research gap to investigate. To do
this I will use the empirical case of climate refugees. The policy issue of climate refugees is a
case in point since it is relatively new on the global agenda and so the definition of the
problem is vivid and not yet settled. This study contributes to knowledge of global policy
problems and to future policy analysis on problem definition. As for the case of climate
refugees, this study contributes with a clarification on what the problem is actually defined as
which can be useful for the following policy stages.
1.2 Purpose and research questions
The purpose of this master thesis is twofold:
•
•
To identify and explain the salient characteristics of a global policy problem
To characterize the global problem definition phase
In particular I will make a policy analysis of the problem definition stage of global policy
making on climate refugees. The questions I seek to answer are:
-
How is the problem of climate refugees defined?
7
Elin Jakobsson
-
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
What are the salient characteristics of the problem of climate refugees as a policy
problem in the global policy arena?
What does this mean for problem definition in a global context?
1.3 General outline
In this chapter I have given a general introduction to the field of global policy making, the
issue of problem definition and the case of climate refugees. I have also argued for why this is
an intriguing research problem and presented the purpose of this master thesis.
In the next chapter I sketch my theoretical framework. First I briefly discuss the sequences of
the policy process. I then move on to investigating what a policy problem is and what happens
at the stage of problem definition. I conclude this chapter by presenting my analytical
framework.
In chapter three I will describe and discuss my research design and methodological approach.
I will present the material upon which I have built this study and how I have processed this to
answer my purpose.
The empirical case of global policy making on climate refugees will be further presented in
chapter four.
In chapter five and six I present and analyze the empirical findings from the case data. The
findings are classified in respect to two theoretically derived questions that I have posed to the
material. In the last and seventh chapter I elaborate on the conclusions and look forward.
8
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
2 Problem definition in theory
In this chapter I look into the previous research on policy problems and problem definition
and derive this into my analytical framework. But to put the problem definition stage in a
context, I will first give a short introduction of the stages model of the policy process.
2.1 Stages of a policy process
When analyzing policy it is common to regard it as a developing process. The process
consists of different steps. How the steps are characterized varies among researchers but the
first phase is generally recognized as some kind of problem formulation phase. I will soon
return to the discussion of why this initial phase can be considered the most important one and
how it can be understood to determine the development of the policy process. Before that, I
will give an overview of the stages model in policy analysis.
Premfors (1989:9f) approaches the concept of policy neither as a limited intervention nor as a
single decision, but as a chain of decisions. There are several different parts that constitute a
policy. On the concept of analysis Premfors accentuates that the method is not just about how
to dissect a subject and divide it into smaller parts. It is just as important to be able to use the
parts to see the bigger picture, which should be able to say something more than just the sum
of the different parts. Policy analysis should therefore be holistic.
Simon (1958:39, 61-109) presents two models of the policy process: the model of rationality
and the model of bounded rationality. The rational model stems from the theory of the
“economic man” and supposes that there is complete information about all means and
alternatives and their consequences. Since this is more or less impossible in public
administration, the model of bounded rationality is considered a more feasible alternative.
Instead of choosing the optimal option, “the administrative man” chooses a satisfying option
that reaches at least a minimum standard of goal achievement. The incremental model lacks
precise goals and chooses only from a few known alternatives that differ marginally from the
existing situation (Also described in Premfors 1989:41ff).
Many writers on policy analysis use a sequenced model with different stages that illustrates
the decision process or the policy process (See for example Lasswell 1971:28, Premfors
1989:44, Quade 1989:226). With slight alterations, a general model consists of problem,
alternatives, recommendation, decision, implementation, evaluation and feed-back (Premfors
1989:44). In the problem phase, the problem is identified and structured (Premfors 1989:44,
Quade 1989:229ff). There are different views on what a policy problem is and what the
activity of problem definition contains. I will discuss this further below.
In the second phase, possible alternatives for action is investigated and considered. The pros
and cons of different alternatives are weighed against each other. The best alternative or
alternatives are selected and communicated in the recommendation phase. At this stage, goals
and values for the policy is also considered. Possible values can be efficiency and equity or
political and administrative feasibility. Having investigated and evaluated different
alternatives, there is a formal decision to proceed with one of the alternatives. This choice of a
9
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
certain policy is made at the decision phase. The implementation phase is characterized by
action and the execution of the policy. The policy is evaluated in the evaluation phase upon
which lessons are learned in the last phase – the feed-back (Premfors 1989:44, 89-94, 98f,
Quade 1989:231-241)
2.2 What is a policy problem?
Premfors (1989:48) defines a policy problem as a private or social state that an actor considers
unsatisfying and that should be dealt with through official means. How and by whom the
problem is identified has significance on what is recognized and how it is addressed on a
public policy level. Problems are not neutral, they are constructs and the problem definitions
give (possibly competing) answers to questions of alternatives, means and ends (Dery
2000:40; Portz 1996:371f; Weiss 1989:97). If a problem is “incorrectly” defined, it is likely
that it is not coherent with the actual situation which will put off an adequate solution (Peters
& Hornbeek 2005:82, Premfors 1989:51).
Dery (1984:7, 21-27) presents four different views on what a policy problem is. Firstly,
problems can be viewed as (undesirable) situations. Describing the problem then is to
describe a situation and to describe a situation often contains a description of the roots or
causes of the problem. Secondly, problems can be viewed as discrepancies between “what is”
and “what ought to be”. Thirdly, problems can be viewed as bridgeable discrepancies. That is,
discrepancies are policy problems first when they are solvable, when there is a way to erase
the discrepancy. Finally, problems can be viewed as opportunities. This view is not focused
on if something is thought to be a problem, but rather how a problem is defined. Dery argues
that problems should be viewed as opportunities for improvement rather than discrepancies or
something that necessarily can be solved.
2.3 What happens at the problem definition phase?
The policy problem formulation phase can be considered the most crucial one since it sets the
premises for the rest of the process. First and foremost, until a a sufficient number of powerful
actors issue have identified an issue as a problem by or at least as unsatisfying and in need of
change, it is not really a policy problem at all. Hence, without the problem identification
phase, an issue cannot be subject to policy (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:84, Premfors 1989:48,
Weiss 1989:97).
So what is actually analyzed at the problem definition phase? In general, a division can be
made between three views on what the activity of problem definition entails: To identify
problems, to define problems and to construct problems.
To identify a problem is simply to establish that there is a problem, or an undesirable
situation. Bacchi (1999:20) call those engaged in problem identification “comprehensive
rationalists”. They are not especially interested in the nature of the problem and consider the
problem phase of policy analysis a rather uncomplicated phase where values and goals are
10
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
clarified. They believe that the real work lies in finding solutions. So, they consider problem
and solution to be two separate things. However, most policy theorists view the problem
phase as something more complicated than that.
Another view is that policy problems are something that are not identified, but defined. This
view also engages in the solution of the problem but see the problem phase as a much more
complicated process with stronger implications for the outcome of the policy. They do an indepth analysis of the problem definition with the imbedded normative decisions that policy
makers and analysts must confront. The political rationalist also tries to come up with
suggestions on how the problem definition could be done in a better and more constructive
way (Bacchi 1999:20). According to Weiss (1989:97f), the problem definition is more than
just a label. It is a package of information on causes and consequences, and ideas about how
the problem may be handled. The problem definition also determines the construction of
policy since it brings forth some aspects of the situation and some possible solutions while
neglecting others. Weiss therefore argues that the problem definition is “the heart of the
action”, not just a prelude to the policy making.
Policy problems can also be viewed as analytical constructs. They are not given and not
meaningful in themselves. They are also more than just packages of information of causes,
goals and values. They are something highly subjective (Quade 1989:231). Bacchi’s
(1999:21, 37, 48) approach emphasizes that problem definition cannot be separated from the
solution. The Policy problem is constantly defined throughout the whole policy process and
represents different things at different stages. Her analysis focuses on the discursive
construction of policy problems and the effects of the subsequent policies. Stone (2002:133f)
agrees with Bacchi that the problem definition is about representing a situation, it is not about
a neutral definition of goals and their achievements. There is therefore no general or objective
method of problem definition in politics, one that automatically generates the right answers.
Instead there are many methods or languages as Stone calls them, which each holds their own
moral conflicts and values. Wildavsky (1979:388f) argues that the policy analyst creates
policy problems in two parallel ways. One is to create problems that are actually worth
solving and possible to solve with the resources at hand. The other is to construct solutions
that fit the problem being created. Similarly, Dery (1984:4, 6, 27; 2000:40) considers the
problem definition phase as more complex than just establishing that a problem exists. To
him, problems are analytical constructs and the problem definition phase contains search,
creation and initial examination of ideas for solution. The problem definition sets the stage for
the rest of the policy process and without it the following activities and actions would not
make much sense.
Peters & Hornbeek (2005:82, 84f) see problem-defining as a two way process, where the first
is to label the problem so as to belong to a certain area of politics, for example if a problem is
one of healthcare, education or security. The second stage is to find a way to understand the
problem in a more multifaceted way in order to find an applicable solution. Peters &
Hornbeek do this by using seven characteristics that enlightens different dimensions of the
problem. The first three problem characteristics focus on the nature of the problem while the
11
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
last four are directed at the problem in relation to choice of instrument (Peters & Hornbeek
2005: 87-98).
The solubility of a problem is the most fundamental characteristic and refers to whether the
problem can in fact be solved at all. Even if there is an adequate solution it might not be
politically feasible. Without a durable solution, a certain problem can repeatedly rise on to the
political agenda without ever really being properly solved. Indicators that a problem is likely
to be insolvable are dissension on values within the policy area or if the issue touches on
fundamental moral or political values of the target group. The issue’s dependency on external
factors is also of importance. The more dissension on political or fundamental moral values
and the more dependant the issues will be on external factors: the less the solubility (Peters &
Hornbeek 2007:87-90).
Peters & Hornbeek (2005:90ff) divide the problem of complexity into political complexity and
programmatic complexity. The political complexity refers to the numbers and diversity of
actors, the interests involved and the possibilities of negotiating agreements. The
programmatic complexity concerns to what extent the average citizen can understand and take
part in the policy process and especially its technical content. It also concerns the level of
multi-causality of the problem and the amount of agreement on the causes.
The scale of the problem refers to the severity and range of effects produced by the problem.
It also refers to whether the problem can or must be addressed all at once or if it can be
divided into smaller parts (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:93f).
It is easier to solve problems where individuals can see the effects of their own actions and are
instantly rewarded with its benefits. On the opposite, problems where the benefits are unclear
and that demands collective action are more difficult to find a proper solution for. Where a
problem is placed on such a scale represent the characteristic of divisibility (Peters &
Hornbeek 2005:94f).
To define the level of monetarization of a problem is to define whether money and funds can
be part of solving the problem or not (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:95f).
Another important characteristic is the activities that must be controlled or changed to address
the problem. If the activities are many and very different from each other it will put much
higher demands on governing than if the number of activities are small and well defined. This
characteristic is named the scope of activity (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:96f).
The final characteristic is interdependency. That is, if the policy problem is concentrated to
one specific policy domain or if there are several policy domains involved. This will have
implications for the possibility to solve the problem and the policy instruments that are
applicable (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:98f).
12
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
2.4 Analytical framework
My analytical framework builds on the characteristics that Peters & Hornbeek (2005) presents
as a typology to analyze policy problems. The problem characteristics are divided into two
sets following the division made by Peters & Hornbeek, those that concern the nature of the
problem and those who concern the problem in relation to possible instruments. I have
approached the material with two relatively wide questions, representing the aim of each set
of characteristics. The questions are posed in order to attain a multifaceted view of the
problem. I have then used the indicators on each characteristic to further analyze the results.
The framework will help to disaggregate the problem definition and clarify its features.
What is the problem?
- Solubility
o Dissension of values in the policy area.
o The degree to which the issue touches on fundamental moral or political
values.
o Dependence upon external factors.
- Complexity
o Number of political actors and political interests involved.
o The degree of technical content.
o The degree of multiple causation.
- The question of scale
o Can the problem be disaggregated into smaller parts?
How should the problem be addressed?
- Divisibility
o The degree to which the problem demands collective action.
o The degree to which there are instant and individual benefits.
- Monetarization
o If money can be used to solve or ameliorate the problem.
- Scope of activity
o If there are many very different forms of activity that must be controlled or
changed.
- Interdependencies
o The extent to which the problem is or can be confined to a single policy
domain.
13
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
3 Method and material
The analytical framework leads in to the realization of the study. Considering the immense
scope of global politics, I have chosen one recent global policy issue as my case. From that
case I have gathered written material in the form of reports and policy documents. The
documents have been chosen to represent different policy actors on the global level. The texts
have been qualitatively analyzed. Questions have been posed to the material which has been
categorized accordingly. For a theoretical analysis I have used an analytical framework
derived from theories of problem definition. The methodological choices of the study will be
discussed below.
3.1 Choice of case
For this study I have chosen one single case of policy making on a global level. Alternatively,
I could have chosen several policy cases to attain different examples of the problem definition
phase. In this study however, I strive for an in depth analysis rather than for a broader
perspective. Since I also aim for a holistic picture of the different actors and their way of
defining the problem it is more fruitful to concentrate on just one case. There is not room for
an in-depth analysis on several cases within the scope of this master thesis.
The policy case I have selected concerns climate refugees. The term “climate refugees” and
the definition of the phenomenon is part of the problem and I will discuss this in detail in
section 4.5. In short, the policy problem of climate refugees refers to people who are
displaced because of some sort of environmental degradation, possibly caused by (human
induced) climate change. The case of climate refugees is a challenging policy case for
numerous reasons. It is general and extraordinary at the same time. It is a phenomenon that is
in need of a global approach, possibly more so than many other policy problems on the global
agenda. This is because there are no instant benefits for states themselves to take on the issue
at the same time as the situation is dire for those who are and will be affected. In addition to
this there is the aspect of the moral responsibility, especially if this is considered a problem
caused by human induced climate change. The case is also suitable for studying problem
definition since it is relatively new as a policy issue. It has been increasingly recognized by
global actors that strategies of some kind must be developed to cope with the present as well
as the future situation. However, while a more established policy problem might have settled
on the problem definition, a novel problem is expected to offer a greater spread and dynamic
around alternatives of problem definition.
All policy problems have their own characteristics and so do the case of climate refugees. I
argue though that it also has fundamental qualities that make it generalizable and comparable
to other global policy problems. It is a large-scale, complex problem and is addressed by the
same number and kinds of actors that usually act on the policy arena.
14
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
3.2 Choice of method
Empirically, the study builds on qualitative text analysis. I have selected different kinds of
policy documents from actors that represent different parts of the global policy arena. I will
discuss my choice of material more specifically under the next section.
To attain an in depth and multifaceted understanding of how the actors define the problem of
climate refugees, I have posed two questions to the texts. The questions represent the two sets
of characteristics used in the analytical framework and are used as a way to withdraw
information to answer my purpose.
a) What is the problem?
b) How should the problem be addressed?
The first question is clearly the most direct and explicit answer to how the problem is defined.
However, I see this question as containing more than just the immediate answer what the
problem is. This question gives an understanding of in which policy field the problem is
placed, the nature of the problem and why this phenomenon is considered a problem at all. It
also gives some idea of what is understood to be the cause of the problem.
By the second question I aim to investigate what the actors believe should be done to solve, or
at least address the problem. In some way this question belongs to later stages of the policy
process, for example in what is called “alternative searching” and possibly also “goal
conception” (see 2.1 and Premfors 1989:63ff, 89). However, what the actors conceive as the
proper or most pressing way to address a problem is also part of how they define and identify
the problem. It gives information on in which policy field they place the issue, how they
structure the problem and how they relate the problem to possible instruments.
When processing my material, I have systematically gone through the documents and
classified fragments of text according to the two questions. At the end of the process I had
gathered information from all documents under the two questions “What is the problem?” and
“How should the problem be addressed?” respectively. In that way I attained an overview of
the material. I could see patterns and identify different themes that rose within the scope of
each question. Possible methodological problems with this lie in my interpretation of the texts
and that I equate the documents with each other. I decide which parts of the texts belong to
which question, I also reject parts of the text that I did not think qualified as answers. It can
also be problematic that the material consists of different kinds of documents that might have
different levels of importance and formality. I argue though, that I have selected documents
that represent the points of the various actors. Since the issue has not yet been formally
decided upon, the possible different statuses of the documents are of minor importance.
3.3 Choice of material
Given that the study is based on a qualitative text analysis, I have selected appropriate texts
from the case to analyze. I have chosen policy documents from different actors where they
express their view on the issue of climate refugees. I started the research process by
15
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
identifying actors that have approached the issue. My aim was to identify key actors within a
broad range of policy actors. I have put together a collection of documents where UN
agencies, EU agencies, NGOs, national actors and composed groups of different kinds of
actors are represented. I have deliberately chosen to include NGOs because their apprehension
of an issue has a strong influence on the global policy discourse (see for example Held &
McGrew 2003:11; Soroos 1986:84-87). From the material, I have also found that “traditional”
policy actors refers to and cooperates with well established NGOs to a considerable extent. In
Appendix 1, the documents are listed with organization, title & year, what term they use for
“climate refugees” and what kind of document it is.
3.4 Analyzing the results
Going through the material I found that it was problematic to settle on one problem definition
alone. Therefore statements on problem definitions have been categorized according to
different dimensions that capture the complexity of the policy problem and its solutions. I
have applied an analytical framework built upon Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005) seven
characteristics of a policy problem. The framework is presented in section 2.4. The
framework enlightened the problem definition from different angles and showed its salient
characteristics.
The weakness of my analytical framework is that it is developed primarily for national policy
problems. However, I find it applicable also to global policy problems. Firstly, the
characteristics entailed in the framework are significant no matter on which level; local,
national or global, the policy problem is handled. Secondly, there is no, at least not to my
findings, framework specifically for global policy problems. This is part of the motivation for
this study. Kellow (1999:615) and Morgan et al. (1999:278f) writes that policy making on the
global level can be investigated using frameworks from national policy. However, they must
be used consciously and carefully, and the global policy analyst must be aware of the
conditions that prevails the global policy arena. The writers suggest that we must use global
policy analysis as a way to better recognize the limitations of current tools and from which we
can develop theories and analytical methods.
3.5 Limitations
I have limited the study in the following ways: I concentrated on documents and policy
discussions intended for a global or at least regional (in the case of some EU documents)
level. I have excluded documents or statements referring to a national policy level. For
example in case of the document from the German Advisory Council, I selected it as a
national document addressing the global level. Further, I focused on forced, cross-border
migration. Undoubtedly, many people affected by climate change and environmental
degradation will migrate within the country they live. Most people will not have the means to
cross international borders (IOM 2009). However, even though it is arguable that the
international community has a moral responsibility also for internally displaced persons
16
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
(IDPs), it is when displaced persons begin to cross international borders that the issue
becomes of global policy concern.
17
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
4 The case of climate refugees
In this chapter I give the background of the case of climate refugees. I will give an overview
of how the issue has appeared on the global policy agenda, present academic views on the
relation between climate refugees and existing policy frameworks. I will discuss estimates on
numbers and future scenarios as well as regions where environmental degradation is most
likely to lead to migration. Finally, I will conclude the chapter by discussing the problematic
task of defining climate refugees.
4.1 Recognizing the Issue of Climate Migration
Already in 1985 Essam El-Hinnawi stated, in his report for the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), that the group “environmental refugees” existed (Biermann & Boas
2009:5), and in 1990 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (UNHCR et al.
2009:1)1 pointed out that:
“The gravest effects of climate change may be those on human migration.”
Since then, the discourse on climate change has grown extensively and its effects on
migration and displacement have been recognized by several actors. The Swedish Member of
Parliament, Tina Acketoft, presented a report on the subject on behalf of the Parliamentary
Assembly of the European Council’s of the Committee on Migration, Refugees and
Population in 2008. In the report Acketoft calls the phenomenon a “new challenge of the 21st
century” and establishes that 30 million people every year are already victims of
environmental catastrophes, outnumbering refugees from war or violence. The report also
argues that the protection frameworks concerning migrants and refugees are inadequate for
the protection of environmentally caused refugees and migrants. She calls upon the member
states of the European Union to, among other things, investigate these gaps in law and
protection mechanisms and to elaborate national legislation to recognize environmentally
induced migrants (Acketoft 2008).
The Institute for Environment and Human Security (UN-EHS), a part of the United Nations
University, has held no less than three conferences on the subject of environmentally forced
migration in 2008. The attempt was to bring together academics, policy makers and
practitioners under a common research agenda. The research brief that summarizes these
conferences says that climate change and environmental migration will become the main
policy concern of the 21st century. The brief also states that there is a pressing need for a
common academic and practical framework and that the research should be policy-oriented to
facilitate integration between research and policy (Wrathall & Morris 2009:1ff, 9).
The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) has published three quite comprehensive reports on
climate displacement since 2008, one of them together with The UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The reports conclude that there has been a
1
For the IPCC report as well as the report from El-Hinnawi (1985) I am forced to refer to documents different
than the original ones. Despite repeated attempts at libraries as well as the internet, I have not been able to
retrieve the original documents.
18
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
significant increase in natural hazards, such as storms, floods and drought, over the past two
decades and that at least 20 million people has been displaced due to climate-related disasters
in 2008. The NRC also urges the need to address the gaps in policy and protection
frameworks concerning this issue (NRC 2008:25-32; NRC 2009:5ff, 10-21, 36; OCHAIDMC 2009:4, 8, 15).
Another organization that has identified climate migration as a growing problem is the
International Organization for Migration (IOM). The IOM (2009:9, 385-434) mention the lack
of precise figures but estimate that between 25 million to one billion people could be
displaced during the next 40 years as a result of climate change. IOM analyzes the
possibilities that these groups of migrants have to benefit from existing protection
frameworks, but concludes that many issues remain unsolved and that more information and
policy research is needed.
These organizations together with numerous academics (see for example Biermann & Boas
2009; Myers 1997; 2002; Myers & Kent 1995; Renaud 2007; Williams 2008) conclude that
this existing problem will grow, that existing policy and protection frameworks are
insufficient and that new supranational agreements (as well as national policy) will most
probably be needed.
4.2 Climate refugees in existing frameworks
Those who have investigated existing protection for environmental refugees are mainly
concentrating on two frameworks: The 1951 Refugee Convention and the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights.
Naturally, the first existing protection framework that most writers refer to is the 1951 United
Nations Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (from here on referred to as the
“Refugee Convention”). This convention rests upon two main requirements: the one of
“persecution” and the “for reasons of…”. That means that to acquire status as a refugee the
individual needs to experience a well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion (Cooper
1998:480-483). Some writers argue that the Refugee Convention is applicable in its original
form. Cooper (1998:528) accentuates that the Convention was created in 1951, for conditions
that differ from the case of international migration today. To work as an effective policy
framework, the convention must be responsive to new demands. Hence, Cooper argues that
environmental refugees are entitled to refugee status as they are members of a particular
social group.
Most writers disagree though and argue that the Refugee Convention as it is today is not
applicable to environmental refugees. IOM (2009:406), for example, means that climate
change can reasonably not be conceived as a persecutory agent. For the same reasons,
Docherty & Giannini (2009:358) exclude climate refugees from falling within the scope of the
Refugee Convention and state that climate refugees, unlike “traditional” refugees, have the
possibility of turning to their home states for protection. Renaud et al. (2007:13) rule out the
19
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Refugee Convention in this matter mainly because the convention requires the person to be
outside their country. Since the reasons for displacement is the same for climate refugees
whether she migrates within her country (which would make her an Internally Displaced
Person, IDP) or internationally, there should be no division between those two groups in
legislation. Biermann & Boas (2009:13f) find that the Refugee convention offers only
marginal protection for climate refugees and can hardly see that the UN donor countries
would agree to a refugee convention that covers a possibly twenty-times larger group than it
does today. Biermann & Boas argue against the necessity of categorize climate refugees
specifically as “refugees” since there are other ways of offering migrants protection but
especially since climate refugees needs a different kind of protection. In sum, because of the
very different contexts in which climate migration occurs, even if some refugees fall within
the scope of the refugee convention there will always be climate migrants that do not. And
without new or expanded policy frameworks, they will remain unprotected.
The other main framework that could provide protection for climate refugees is the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights. Rights such as the right to life, the right to development, the
right to property, the rights of indigenous peoples, the right to health, the right to food and the
right to water could all be considered applicable to the issue of climate refugees (IOM
2009:406ff). According to IOM (2009:408f) it can be problematic however, to let protection
for climate refugees rely mainly on the Declaration of Human Rights since climate change
can weaken already fragile states and prevent them from protecting the rights of individuals.
4.3 Estimates on numbers and future scenarios
How one defines climate refugees and the causes of climate-related displacement affects
estimates on how many people are and could be victims of the phenomenon. The OCHA &
IDMC have carried out a detailed study on the number of people affected by different kinds of
climate and environmental phenomena. According to their figures more than 20 million
persons were displaced by sudden climate-related disasters in 2008. That is meteorological
(i.e. storms), hydrological (i.e. floods and wet mass movement) and climatological (i.e.
extreme temperature, wildfire and drought2) events. Also including geophysical (i.e.
earthquakes, volcano-eruptions and dry mass movement) disasters, that figure rises to
36 million persons. The disaster types that, without comparison, have caused the highest
amounts of displaced persons are earthquakes, floods and storms. The region that, without
comparison, has the highest amounts of displaced persons is Asia. When it comes to other
types of driving factors, the numbers are more uncertain. For slow onset disasters there are no
proper estimates but there are some suggestions that about 26 million people were affected by
drought in 2008. However, it is not clear how many of these were actually displaced. When it
comes to losses of state territory resulting from sea level rise the numbers are still quite small
with 2 400 inhabitants displaced from the Carteret islands in Papua New Guinea in 2008. This
type of displacement is expected to accelerate substantially in the future. In addition to this
are the large amount of people (unclear exactly how many) that are displaced every year by
2
In the figures on the climatological events, drought is not included.
20
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
cause of armed conflict and violence over shrinking natural resources (OCHA-IDMC 2009:6,
8-12).
According to Myers (1997:167f; 2002:609ff) there were 25 million environmental refugees
compared to 22 million “traditional” refugees in the end of the 1990s. Before the year 2050 he
predicts that 200 million will be at risk of displacement because of global warming and
climate change. Climate change is causing and will most probably cause sea-level rise,
flooding, droughts and disruption of rainfall regimes. Other causes of environmental
displacement will be soil erosion, desertification, deforestation together with accelerating
population pressure and profound poverty. Decreasing resources will have to support more
people in for example sub-Saharan Africa. The amount of people in absolute poverty, affected
by severe desertification and populations in water-short countries has increased and is
expected to continue to do so in the future. Other significant driving factors for increasing
vulnerability are political, economic, social, cultural, legal and institutional development
processes.
Myers (1997:172f) looks towards the year 2025 and foresees growing pressure on grain lands
and population growth in water-short countries, developing countries and areas affected by
severe desertification. Deforestation will cause a near extinction of rainforests which will lead
to degradation of watershed systems and disruption of rainfall regimes, wind patterns and
convention currents. The destruction of rainforest will also lead to a significant loss of the
forests’ carbon-sink function.
Predictions and estimates on numbers are affected by the lack of a proper definition and
methodological problems (Biermann & Boas 2009:9). Neither do estimates of persons who
will be at risk mean that it is known how many of these will actually migrate. Nonetheless the
estimates and predictions give indications of the severity of the problem.
4.4 Hot-spots
There are a few regions in the world where environmentally induced migration is especially
thought to be or become a substantial consequence of environmental change. These regions
are in the literature referred to as “hot-spots”. Some of the most frequently occurring hot-spots
are islands in the South Pacific, northern Africa, Asia and the Caribbean.
In the South Pacific Ocean, there are several low-lying islands which will be likely to entirely
disappear should the sea level rise. Such islands are the Carteret islands of Papua New Guinea
and the Maldives. This will be a unique situation in history where whole states might literarily
cease to exist.
In northern Africa, drought is the biggest peril. Countries like Egypt, Sudan and Somalia are
highly dependent on the small water resources that they have. With a warmer climate, the
desert will expand, leaving some place inhabitable and making resources scarcer. In the
Darfur region of Sudan for example, this is already happening with horrific conflict as a
consequence.
21
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
The delta regions of Asia are other hotspots. A country like Bangladesh is both low-lying and
penetrated by large deltas, making it exposed to extensive flooding. Countries in central Asia,
like Pakistan, have vast deserts instead and face the danger of drought. Asia is especially
likely to be a source of climate migration because of its large population figures. Suddenonset disasters such as storms and floods are thought to increase in south-east Asia, and when
hitting countries like India or China, a large number of people will be affected.
The Caribbean is also at risk of being subject to an increasing amount of sudden-onset
disasters, but with a smaller number of affected people (Myers 2002:609-612; NRC
2008:23f).
4.5 A shattered definition of climate refugees
There is no generally accepted term or definition regarding the phenomenon of climate
refugees. “Environmental refugees”, “environmentally displaced persons”, “climate change
refugees” and “environmentally induced migrants” all refer to more or less the same thing but
also reveal slightly different views on the issue.
First of all, even though the term “refugee” might be used referring to immigrants, it legally
refers strictly to individuals who falls within the scope of the Refugee Convention3. For this
reason some might find the terms “migrant” and “displaced person” more appealing. The term
“refugee” also has some connection to whether the migration is actually “forced” or only
“motivated” or “induced”. The level of voluntariness is in all very problematic in the debate
on climate refugees. This is the very reason for why it might be difficult to grant protection
under existing frameworks. The causality between the environmental change and the
displacement might be hard to prove, and it might also be just one of multiple factors that
drive an individual to move or flee. Concerning gradual environmental disasters, like drought,
it is very hard to define when the migration is forced, induced or even voluntary (Acketoft
2008:5,8; Biermann & Boas 2009:5-9; Docherty & Giannini 2009:364,367-372; NRC
2008:8f; UNHCR 2009:8). UNHCR (2009:5) even argues that the element of voluntariness is
not the most relevant element with significance to international law. They mean that the most
important element is if the person in question is in need of international protection or not and
if so on what grounds, that is what their status will be.
There is also a debate on whether the discussion of protection concerns refugees from all
kinds of environmental factors or if it only concerns displacement by phenomena thought to
be caused by climate change. This might be a scientifically difficult distinction to make, and
to those who are forced to migrate it may be of little importance. The NRC (2008:8) argues,
however, that this may be a useful distinction for research and policy purposes. The NRC also
suggests a typology of environmental-related phenomena that may lead to migration:
3
Migrants can be granted asylum on several legal grounds, gaining refugee status being only one of them. For
example, in Sweden only about one third of those who are granted asylum attain refugee status. Others who are
granted protection get “subsidiary protection status” or “status as a person otherwise in need of protection”
(Internet 2a, b: Swedish Migration Board).
22
Elin Jakobsson
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Natural disasters/sudden disasters
Gradual environmental degradation/slow-onset disasters
Environmental conflicts
Environmental destruction as a consequence of or as a weapon in conflicts
Environment conservation
Development projects (such as dam construction)
Industrial accidents (such as Bhopal4 and Chernobyl)
These are divided into the following sub-categories:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Human-made or natural change
Climate change-induced or all environmental change
Temporary or permanent environmental change
Temporary or permanent migration
Internal or international/cross-border migration
Many academics as well as organizations and policy actors have presented definitions of what
constitutes this group of migrants:
“Environmental refugees are persons who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their traditional homelands
because of environmental factors of unusual scope, notably drought, desertification, deforestation, soil erosion,
water shortages and climate change, also natural disasters such as cyclones, storm surges and floods. In face of
these environmental threats, people feel they have no alternative but to seek sustenance elsewhere, whether
within their own countries or beyond and whether on a semi-permanent or permanent basis.”
(Myers & Kent 1995:18f)
“(We) define “climate refugees” as people who have to leave their habitats, immediately or in the near future,
because of sudden or gradual alterations in their natural environment related to at least one of three impacts of
climate change: sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and drought and water scarcity.”
(Biermann & Boas 2009)
“Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive
change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their
habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country
or abroad”
(IOM 2009:19)
In this thesis I use the term “climate refugees”. It might be misleading in some sense but gives
an instant understanding of what the issue is about at large. It is unnecessary and unproductive
for me to define exactly what should constitute a climate refugee since I study what social and
political actors say on the matter and how they define the phenomena is part of that.
4
The Bhopal disaster in 1984 has been called one of the worst industrial accidents in history. Methyl isocyanate,
a highly toxic gas, leaked from an insecticide plant killing approximately 15 000 to 20 000 people (Internet 1:
Encyclopædia Britannica).
23
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
5 Defining the problem of Climate Refugees – What is the problem?
In this chapter I present the results from the first question posed to the material: What is the
problem? I will present themes withdrawn from the material and relate these to the theoretical
framework of problem definition.
5.1 Dimensions of definition I
From the documents I have detected eight (a-h) dimensions on how the actors define “the
problem” of climate refugees. Some are more or less general for all the studied documents
and some are only mentioned in one or a few of them. I will here develop the discussion on
each dimension and give examples on how they are expressed in the documents. I will then
relate my results to the first three of Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005) characteristics (see section
2.3-2.4), those who concerns the nature of the problem: solubility, complexity and the
question of scale. Which dimensions that are detected in each document are presented in
Appendix 2.
Before I discuss the dimensions of problem definition I briefly mention a dimension “x” that
describes climate migration not as a problem but as a possibility:
x) Climate migration as a positive phenomenon.
To define a problem as something positive might be to withdraw the problem aspect of the
definition altogether. As one among the other dimensions I still consider it worth mentioning
since it certainly has implications for how the issue could be approached. This definition is
found in the PACE, IOM and NRC reports and implies that climate refugees should not be
seen as something negative but as a viable adaptation strategy and as a way to ameliorate the
pressure on degrading areas. Acketoft (2008:10) writes:
“Not all consequences of environmentally induced migration are negative. Leaving environmentally degraded
and agriculturally unsustainable regions can be seen as a legitimate coping strategy for affected populations. In
addition, migration could potentially help slow the process of environmental degradation”
IOM calls for some shift in the discussion to not only regard climate migration as something
negative:
“There is also a tendency to focus on the inadequacy of policies and legal frameworks to assist those displaced
due to extreme environmental events, with much less discussion of how migration could help some countries
adapt to climate change.”
(IOM 2009:10)
Below I present the eight dimensions elicited from the material.
a) Insufficient, legal and policy-related, protection mechanisms for cross-border
migration.
“environmental migrants are currently not provided for in international law”
(WBGU 2007:5)
24
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
This theme is one of the most frequently used problem definitions. Most documents agree that
this is a fundamental dilemma. Most of those who cross international borders have no ground
for asylum or legal right to resettle in another country. They are forced to leave but as
migrants, they are legally unprotected. The Committee on Migration, Refugees and
Population of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) (Acketoft 2008)
brings up concern about that the lack of consensus within the international community and the
varied terminology used on the issue hinders the progress on the legal protection of
environmental migrants. IOM (2009) discusses the lack of coherent policies to address
potential future migration flows. Without such policies, countries will tend to base their
admission of persons on their own national interests, like economic growth, instead of their
personal protection needs.
This means that there has to be action from the international community for destination
countries to take their responsibilities. The documents are all quite similar in emphasis on this
dimension. The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the IOM are the two
actors that handle this in more detail and extent than do the others, possibly because these are
two of the most exhaustive documents in the material.
b) The problem of lost territory - particularly in the case of sinking island states.
“It is possible that certain low-lying Small Island Developing States (Tuvalu, Kiribati) may disappear altogether,
raising difficult questions of statelessness.”
(Acketoft 2008:10)
This dimension is not nearly as widely discussed as the first one, possibly because it in some
ways is part of the first dimension. Gaps in protection and policy mechanisms are also a
concern with the problem of lost territory. If the sea-level continues to rise, people in lowlying islands will be forced to leave. This is a unique situation in history. The problem seems
to be the uncertain legal status of those whose nation state could physically cease to exist.
Will they have to become refugees in another country, or can a whole state move to another
territory? Do the existing laws on statelessness apply to these people?
c) Climate migration as a security issue and a possible seedbed for conflict.
“competition over natural resources may lead to conflict and in turn displacement”
(IOM 2009:15)
This problem dimension is mainly focused on how decreasing natural resources and hence
increasing competition over them will trigger new conflicts and fuel existing ones. This
relates to migration in two ways: firstly, because the conflict is a cause for displacement.
25
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Secondly, because climate migration brings peoples to new places which intensifies the
pressure on resources at the destination which in turn might lead to conflict.
They also lift the political aspect of conflict. It is very possible that if the effects of climate
change, such as migration, are not properly addressed it may intensify pressure on
international relations. Especially since those most responsible for climate change are not the
ones most affected by it (European Commission & High Representative 2008). The German
Advisory Council on Global Change (2007) writes that there is conflict potential also in the
question of how the costs of climate migration are divided between states. Some states or
organizations might take on a larger responsibility than others which is likely to cause
discussion and even conflict.
d) The lack of knowledge of the scale and complexity of the issue.
“A persistent lack of data is one of the primary challenges to measuring the migration and environment nexus,
while data collection on migration and the environment represents a challenge in itself.”
(IOM 2009:19)
Several documents identify lack of knowledge and reliable data as a problem. They call for
more research in order to apprehend the scale and the impact of climate migration. There is a
pressing need of monitoring and collecting data on ongoing migration processes and
environmental degradation as well as analysis of the features of this kind of migration. This
would be fundamental to be able to address the problem properly and to have a fruitful policy
debate.
e) Environmental degradation and migration as a two-way process.
“The interaction between the environment and migration is a two-way process: besides sudden or slow on-set
disasters leading to both internal and cross-border movements of people, massive migration for environmental
reasons may in turn affect environmental conditions both in areas of origin and destination and the transit routes
in between, notably when large concentrations of people are forced to seek refuge in other ecologically fragile
areas.”
(Acketoft 2008:2)
This problem dimension is only found in one of the documents, the report from the
Committee of Migration, Refugees and Population, PACE. Still, it is an important view of the
issue. Environmental degradation leads to migration in a pendulum movement which in turn
causes environmental degradation at the destination and hence another migration wave.
26
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
f) Climate migration causes serious violations of human rights.
“Climate change and disasters have negative effects on the realization of several human rights.”
(NRC 2009:19)
The human rights that the NRC and the IOM (2009) among others, refer to are numerous.
First and foremost, it is the non-refoulment principle. According to this principle, a person
cannot be sent back to a place where her life is in danger. Other human rights that could be
violated by climate change and hence be a ground for protection are for example the right to
food, the right to water, the right to health and the right to adequate housing. The wordings on
this subject are not very sharp though. It seems as though in the dimension where the problem
is implications on human rights is more of a way to investigate the possibilities of using the
human rights framework, where other protection frameworks fails.
g) Climate change and climate migration will mostly affect the already most
vulnerable.
“Those parts of the populations that already suffer from poor health conditions, unemployment or social
exclusion are rendered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which could amplify or trigger
migration”
(European Commission & High Representative 2008:4)
This dimension implies that the most vulnerable people will be least able to cope with and
adapt to the effects of climate change and hence are more likely to be forced to leave their
habitats. This is especially serious since environmental degradation seems to be striking
developing countries the hardest. On top of that, they will be even more vulnerable when
displaced and their voice on the global policy arena is relatively weak. It also indirectly
implies that it is an issue of responsibility and possibly even guilt, which is intertwined with
the next and last dimension.
h) Climate change and global warming are causing climate migration.
“Global warming and the ensuing changes of climate as such do not trigger movement of persons; however, its
effects, such as natural disasters, environmental degradation or sea-level rise, have the potential to do so.”
(UNHCR 2009:3)
In all documents studied, it is to a smaller or larger extent brought up that it is the effects of
global warming and climate change, not just of environmental degradation “in general” (even
though it might be scientifically difficult to distinguish between the two) that are causing
climate migration. The terms global warming and climate change implies that the reasons for
climate migration are human-induced, and most probably by the richer countries of the world.
As with the previous theme, this means that the international community has a very high
responsibility of addressing this policy problem in an appropriate way.
27
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
5.2 Solubility, complexity and the question of scale
I have now gone through the eight different dimension of problem definition on climate
refugees that I elicited from the material. In this section I will apply my analytical framework
(see section 2.4) and look into what this means in terms of Peters & Hornbeeks’
characteristics of the problem’s solubility, complexity and scale.
The criterion of solubility refers to if the problem is by its nature “solvable”. That is if the
nature of the problem is such that it can be solved once and for all or if it is going to be a
chronic problem that stays or reoccurs on the political agenda. With the case of climate
refugees one has to ask whether the problem is that climate refugees exist or that there does
not exist a way to properly handle them. Looking at the dimensions of the problem I can
divide them into two sets. The first set (a-e) concerning the consequences and the problem of
how to cope with these while the second set (f-h) are more directed towards the problem in
terms of morality or responsibility.
According to Peters & Hornbeek (2005:88,90), the variables that determine whether a
problem is acute or chronic are if there is a consensus of values in the policy area and the
degree to which the issue touches on fundamental moral or political values. It is also
mentioned that chronic problems are often heavily dependent upon external factors. So how is
this reflected in the problem dimensions of climate refugees? Given that there is such a wide
range of dimensions mentioned to this policy problem and in some sense also a wide range of
definitions, it is possible to say that there is lack of consensus on what values are at risk with
this problem. Even within the same document, i.e. the same actor, there are several different
dimensions on what the problem is. At the same time, since the same dimensions keep
occurring also in documents from different kinds of actors, that could indicate and overall
consensus on the dimensions.
So does the issue touch on fundamental moral or political values? If we look to the second set
of dimensions they touch on political values such as human rights and moral values such as
fairness. It is unfair that those who are most vulnerable will have to suffer for what those who
are least vulnerable have caused. So yes, the issue of climate refugees certainly relates to
fundamental values. However, there seems to be consensus on these values. It is possible
though that there will be a dissension on fundamental values, such as responsibility, when the
responsibility for the individual states needs to be agreed upon.
The issue and its future development are also very much dependent on external factors. The
scope of the issue depends on what kind of environmental degradation that climate change
brings with it, something that is impossible for politicians to predict and influence.
Some dimensions of the issue are certainly solvable given political will. However, since there
might be a dissention on moral and political values and that it is very much dependent upon
external factors, the issue of climate refugees could easily become an unsolvable policy
problem. That is that its nature is such that it is probable to stay on the political agenda.
28
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
The criterion of complexity concerns the problem’s political complexity in terms of the
number of political actors and interests involved and the programmatic complexity in terms of
technical content and multiple causation.
The number of political actors involved in policy making on climate refugees, are numerous.
Only within the material used for this study I count four UN agencies, four EU actors and at
least three NGOs. A look at the eight dimensions of problem definition on the subject
indicates that there are also several political interests at stake. There is the interest of
legitimacy incorporated in the moral dimensions such as to take responsibility for what one
has caused and to protect human rights. There is the political interest of security and all the
interests that is incorporated in a possible conflict. Then there is the, in itself very complex,
issue of migration and the politically delicate question of how to handle migrants and their
rights at the destination.
The technical content of the problem of climate refugees is not necessarily very complex.
Most of the eight dimensions are quite easily grasped by the average citizen. The technicality
of legal protection for refugees and other cross-border migrates might need some knowledge
of migration law in order to be fully understood. Since the problem of climate refugees is
quite new to both policy makers and citizens it can seem a bit difficult to understand what the
issue holds at first. However, the implications of the dimensions are in themselves not
difficult to comprehend.
Multiple causation is also a type of policy problem complexity. That is, if there are competing
models of causation and disagreement among experts (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:91). For the
case of climate refugees the model of causation is in a way surprisingly similar among the
studied documents and the different actors. The experts that they refer to are also more or less
the same. Usually the IPCC is referred or experts such as Myers or to empirical findings and
estimates like the ones from EM-DAT. Even though there doesn’t seem to be competing
models of causation, there are several ways to apprehend the implications of the problem. For
example if the problem is primarily one of security or of legal protection or if it is climate
change or natural environmental change that causes the migration. But the fundamental
causation of the problem, that environmental degradation causes displacement, is agreed
upon.
In sum, the political complexity of the problem of climate refugees is high while the
programmatic complexities exist but are considerably lower.
The scale of the problem concerns the magnitude of the problem and its effects. More
specifically that is whether a problem can be approached in an incremental way or if it
requires a comprehensive approach or none at all (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:93f). The problem
of climate refugees is undoubtedly very large in scale and in the range of effect that it
produces. The number of found dimensions of the problem is an indication of this. However,
the dimensions also indicate that the problem is divisible and cumulative in nature. To do
something about the problem of refugees is therefore not pointless. To approach one of the
dimensions is better than none at all. The dimensions are also intertwined so that if something
is done to address one of the dimensions it also indirectly affects the other ones. This means
29
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
that on the surface, the problem of climate refugees is a large scale problem. It can however
be disaggregated into several smaller-scale problems. In this way, the problem of climate
refugees is in fact not one problem, but many.
30
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
6 Defining the problem of climate refugees - How should the problem be
addressed?
In this chapter, I present the results and analysis from question two: How should the problem
be addressed?
6.1 Dimensions of definition II
In the documents I have detected eight dimensions of what the actors suggest to address the
problem of climate refugees. Most actors point out several of the dimensions and some of the
dimensions are sometimes integrated. The detected dimensions follow quite naturally on the
dimensions in the first question. Some of them concerns the same aspect but are here stated
from an angle of solutions and addressing the problem.
I will now go through each dimension to explain how they are expressed in the material. I will
then analyze my findings according to the last four of Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005)
characteristics, those who concern the problem in relation to possible instruments: divisibility,
monetarization, scope of activity and interdependencies.
a) Develop existing or create new policies, particularly regarding legal protection.
“States should consider establishing alternative forms of protection for those who do not qualify as refugees and
ensure that migration management systems provide for the needs of such persons.”
(UNHCR et al. 2009:2)
This dimension is stated in some way in each of the documents studied, which indicates that
this dimension is one of the more fundamental parts of the problem. The actors points this out
as a, if not the, fundamental way to address the problem. This can be done in different ways.
One is to create new declarations and jurisdiction that will attend to the specific protection
needs of climate refugees. Another is to integrate these needs into already existing
frameworks on displacement and migration. It is also of significance to investigate how
already existing frameworks may be used. The NRC (2009) for example, means that this is
important since it might take time to develop new legal and governance solutions.
b) Enhanced dialogue and cooperation between all concerned actors and parties.
“a co-ordinating commission for environmental migration to be created with a mission to co-ordinate the work of
international organizations that focus on different aspects of the problem of environmentally induced migration”
(Acketoft 2008:4)
This dimension is repeatedly brought up in the documents to emphasize the need for dialogue,
coordination and cooperation between all kinds of parties. To strengthen existing networks as
well as developing new forms of cooperation are highlighted. The dialogues, coordination and
cooperation efforts should for example be between state - state, states - UN bodies and experts
31
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
– other stakeholders. Cooperation is pointed out as crucial for a comprehensive approach to
the problem. The UNHCR (2009) views cooperation as the base upon which new frameworks
are built and the platform for solidarity and sharing responsibility. EACH-FOR (2009)
promotes international dialogue as a way to share experiences and learning between different
regions.
c) Migration needs to be incorporated into climate change adaptation strategies.
”adaptation measures must therefore also cover protection of and assistance for the displaced”
(UNHCR et al. 2009:5)
For this dimension it is evident that the problem of climate refugees is also part of the more
general policy making on climate change. Adaptation strategies must include the issue of
displacement and how people displaced as well as destination spots can adapt to the new
situation. Migration is also in itself a way to adapt to the changes that climate change brings
with it. This dimension is not very well elaborated but is mentioned in the way that adaptation
strategies should be supported and that adaptive capacities of vulnerable people should be
strengthened.
d) More research, knowledge and monitoring is necessary to better understand the
scope and the mechanisms of the phenomenon.
“Develop research programmes concerning the quantitative and qualitative study of the human impacts of
disruptions of the climate and of their corollaries in terms of forced migrations”
(Greens/EFA 2008:4)
This dimension does not really address the problem in itself but emphasizes more preparation
to find the best way to address the problem. Suggested ways to gather adequate information
on the climate refugee complexity is to intensify capacities for research, analysis and
monitoring (European Commission & High Representative 2008, NRC 2009:36), develop
research programs and multi-disciplinary research (Acketoft 2008, Greens/EFA 2008), collect
data (Acketoft 2008), encourage the raising of awareness of populations and their authorities
(Greens/EFA 2008) and investigate existing gaps in law and protection mechanisms (Acketoft
2008, IOM 2009, NRC 2009:36).
e) Funds and financing are needed.
“UNHCR is convinced that additional international funding will not only be needed to help states mitigate the
impact of climate change, but also to bolster adaptation, disaster preparedness and risk reduction, and
humanitarian response at the international level”
(UNHCR 2009)
32
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Several of the documents lift the necessity of substantial funding in order to address the
problem of climate refugees. There are some different suggestions for how this should be
aimed and organized. Some of the actors think that an international fund should be created
and some discuss responsibility and burden-sharing. The German Advisory Council on Global
Change (2007) suggests that the costs should be shared according to the “polluter pays”- and
the “ability-to-pay”-principle. That is, how much financing a country should contribute with
is linked to its greenhouse gas emissions and its gross domestic product. The funding is
supposed to compensate those affected but also to manage the population movements as well
as to support prevention and adaptation (Acketoft 2008, Greens/EFA 2008, UNHCR 2009,
UNU 2009:34).
f) The resilience of communities as well as other preventive measures needs to be
strengthened.
“Increase people’s resilience to the impacts of climate change so that fewer are forced to migrate”
(UNU 2009:34)
Since the most vulnerable persons are also the ones most likely to be victims to the effects of
climate change and hence climate migration, this dimension is aimed at trying to decrease the
vulnerability of those affected. It also includes education and spreading of information in
order to strengthen people’s resilience by strengthening their knowledge.
g) Resettlement processes and integration on the new location.
“More participatory resettlement processes that include suggestions for alternative and sustainable livelihoods
for those households or individuals who are resettled would lead to better integration of migrants in resettlement
locations.”
(EACH-FOR 2009:5)
People are already forced to migrate due to environmental reasons, and it will be unavoidable
also for the future. Efforts to address climate change must therefore also be aimed at the
process of resettlement in a new location as well as strategies for integration.
h) Vulnerable or exposed groups need to be supported by humanitarian aid.
“when people cannot migrate because they have neither the money nor the networks to do so, they will suffer as
a result of environmental changes and hazards, so the EU must be prepared to help them with humanitarian aid.”
(EACH-FOR 2009:75)
This last dimension concerns how humanitarian aid can assist those who are exposed to
climate change effects. It seems as if this aid should be more directed towards preventive
measures for those who would otherwise be forced to migrate. Not as much for those who
have already fled, even though this might be part of it as well.
33
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
6.2 Divisibility, monetarization, scope of activity and interdependencies
I will now use my results from the question of how the problem should be addressed to
analyze the problem according to the second set of Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005)
characteristics. What does this mean in terms of the problem’s divisibility, monetarization,
scope of activity and interdependencies?
If addressing a policy problem properly demands collective action and the benefits are unclear
for the individual, the divisibility of the problem is low (Peters & Hornbeek 2005).
Addressing the problem of climate refugees has unclear and indirect benefits for the
individual person or the individual state. Those who will benefit most are not the same as
those who are responsible and most capable of doing something about the issue. If we in this
case translate the theoretical individual as being a state within the international community
there are not really any instant benefits with addressing the problem of climate refugees.
Going through the dimensions of how to address the problem of climate refugees, it is also
clear that all of them demand collective action to be effective. There is little point of
strengthening the legal protection in one destination country, if no other countries do the same
thing. Of course, it is helpful for the displaced persons who have the possibility of making it
to that particular country but it will not solve or ameliorate the problem in a more general
sense. In addition to that, the political will to enhance the protection is not likely to be very
high if other countries fail to do the same.
Furthermore, it is of little point to engage in dialogue and cooperation unless more than one
actor is involved. In the same way is there little incentive to contribute to funds and financing
unless other actors contribute too, and the same kind of argumentation is applicable also on
the other dimensions.
Together, this indicates that the policy problem of climate refugees has a very low divisibility.
It seems to rely completely on the moral and responsibility dimensions discussed in section
5.1. This characteristic also says something important of why the policy problem of climate
refugees most certainly is a global policy problem and why it has to be addressed on a global
level. Because if it would rely solely on the good will of individual states, it is not very likely
that it ever would be properly addressed.
The characteristic of monetarization is simply if money can be used to solve or ameliorate the
problem. One of the dimensions that obviously relates to this is that “funds and financing are
needed”. This indicates a degree of monetarization but is just one of eight dimensions.
However, without it the other dimensions would not be feasible. Money will be needed for
research, preventive measures, resettlement processes and humanitarian aid. But also
dimensions that are more directed towards political processes, such as adaptation strategies
and jurisdiction, will indirectly need financing to function.
Money cannot solve the problem of climate refugees without structuring, political will and
social approval and recognition. On the other hand, the problem cannot be addressed without
funds, and money definitely ameliorates the problem. Hence, the degree of monetarization of
the problem is substantial.
34
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
The scope of activity entails the number and variety of activities that must be controlled or
changed in order to solve the problem (Peters & Hornbeek 2005). The dimensions of how the
problem of climate refugees should be addressed are both numerous and diverse. Creating
new legislation, strengthen resilience and enhance humanitarian aid are examples of
dimensions that demands different kinds of efforts from different kinds of policy actors.
According to Peters & Hornbeek (2005:96f) a problem with a wide scope of activity is not
very suitable for direct regulation. Instead, this kind of approach places very high demands on
governing capacity which decreases its likelihood of success. For a global case that raises the
issue of weak governing structures on a global level. The studied documents only vaguely
indicate who could be responsible for taking the lead in addressing the problem of climate
refugees, and when they do this is usually discussed in terms of responsibilities for the own
organization, for example UNHCR and the EU.
However, relating to the discussion of the question of scale above, it does not seem as though
the problem necessarily needs to be addressed by the whole scope of activities. Even
addressing just one of the activities will ameliorate the problem at least to some extent. But of
course, the more dimensions addressed, the more effective the interventions will be. The
scope of activity of the problem of climate refugees is consequently wide.
The characteristic of interdependencies follow on the previous discussion on the scope of
activity. The degree of interdependency is the extent to which a policy problem is or can be
confined to a single policy domain (Peters & Hornbeek 2005:98f). Again, the problem of
climate refugees contains several dimensions, touching on different policy areas and different
kinds of instruments. The problem is part of the policy domain of migration as well as climate
change, environment, security and humanitarian aid.
All actors mention more than one dimension in defining the problem of climate refugees. This
implies that a comprehensive approach is needed. As concluded above, if the problem is
addressed within one of the policy areas it is confined to, this is better than not addressing it at
all. But it is unavoidable that successfully addressing the problem of climate refugees requires
efforts from more than one policy domain. Progression in one policy domain is also likely to
have positive effects on the parts of the problem that belongs to other domains. The problem
of climate refugees is therefore highly interdependent.
35
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
7 Conclusions
So what does this analysis tell us about the policy problem of climate refugees in particular
and of problem definition in a global context in general?
Despite the seemingly good intentions from the studies actors, the policy making on climate
refugees faces many difficulties. According to Peters & Hornbeeks’ (2005) theory, the issue
of climate refugees might even be an unsolvable policy problem in the way that it is probable
to stay on the political agenda. The incentives to deal with the issue are small considering the
diffuse and indirect benefits that addressing it holds for the individual state. Instead, the
political future of the issue rests heavily upon moral values of responsibility upon which there
is likely to be a dissention as they are concretized into action. The large number of actors and
interests involved contributes to this likelihood. To comprehensively address the issue,
coordination of a large number of varied activities from different policy areas is needed. This
is something that places high demands on global governance. Bearing in mind the lack of
structure on the global policy arena that Soroos (1986) mentions, that indicates that to govern
such a complicated intervention is going to be a major challenge for the international
community.
The definition of the problem of climate refugees is dynamic and offers different aspects.
Surprisingly though, I have found no evident correlation between type of actor and the
dimensions into which I divided the problem definition. Neither have I found any correlation
between actor and type of dimension, such as moral dimensions or the ones aimed at handling
the problem. Instead, most actors mention several of the dimensions and the dimensions
discussed are in general surprisingly similar between actors from the UN, the EU and NGOs.
One reason for this could be that the actors seem to be cooperating on writing reports. The
first document is a cooperation between UN actors and the NRC, which is a NGO. The
submission to the UNFCCC conference is submitted by the UNU, but they have cooperated
with CARE (NGO), Columbia university, UNHCR and the World Bank. The EACH-FOR
report and the IOM report are other examples of where an EU initiative and a NGO have
cooperated with an UN institution. Another reason could be the still limited knowledge on the
implications and complexity of the phenomenon. It is possible that most global actors rely on
the same reports and information when trying to outline the issue. Nevertheless, it seems as
even though this problem is relatively new on the global agenda, there is close to global
consensus on the problem definition. However, it is possible that this consensus might break
up as the issue is negotiated and nation states need to formally bind themselves to an
agreement.
Wildavsky (1979) argues that policy problems are created in two simultaneous processes: one
being to create problems that are actually worth and possible to solve with the resources at
hand. The other being to construct solutions that fit the problem being created. Dery (1984) is
another writer who includes both creation of problems and examination of solutions in to the
problem definition phase. This could be applied to problem definition of climate refugees.
The dimensions of the first question, “What is the problem?” could be seen as the actors’
attempt at creating a feasible problem. Considering that the dimensions of the second
question, “How should the problem be addressed?”, follow naturally on the dimensions from
36
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
the first question that could be seen as the parallel process of constructing solutions. In fact, it
is hard to see how the definition of the problem could be separated from the solution since the
dimensions mirror each other. In this way the problem of climate refugees is an analytical
construct as discussed by Bacchi (1999), Dery (1984), Quade (1989), Stone (2002) and
Wildavsky (1979). Referring to Dery’s (1984) views on what a policy problem is, the problem
of climate refugees can be principally viewed as an opportunity. It is an opportunity in the
way that it is not very fruitful to regard the problem of climate refugees only as a problem in
itself, the definition is rewarding when regarding the problem in terms of how the problem is
defined. The dimensions indicate that the problem is more than just a bridgeable discrepancy,
it is not only defined in terms of how to erase this discrepancy but also in terms of an
opportunity to improve a situation.
This study started out on the premise that national politics of today live an international life to
an increasingly greater extent. Policy of today are often created within a paradox where
decisions are and need to be made at a supranational level while they cannot be concretized or
implemented without the political will at the national level. What can this analysis contribute
with to our knowledge of global policy problems and to policy analysis on problem definition
on a global level?
I can establish that the policy problem of climate refugees has the founding features that most
global policy problems have. In accordance with Soroos’s (1991) theory on what is significant
for global policy problems, it has produced concern throughout much of the world, at least
among policymakers. It has also been taken up by international institutions, for example the
United Nations. The problem also scores high on the dimensions mentioned by Morgan et al.’
(1999) as being typical for most global policy problems. First, the problem of climate
refugees scores high on the dimension of time to implement or reverse choice. Considering
that the issue was brought up by the UNEP already in 1985 (Biermann & Boas 2009:5) and
the policy process is still just beginning, it has and will certainly have taken some time to
implement. And if, for example, the declaration on refugees or migration policies are altered,
that will also be a very difficult decision to reverse. Second, the issue of global refugees
scores high on the dimension of cultural and political distance between parties. Since most of
the actors considered in the material of this study are global policy actors, they are not very
culturally and politically far from each other, the similarity in problem definition indicates
that. However, for executive decisions and implementation, nation states have to be involved
and they can be culturally and politically distant from each other. Perhaps more importantly,
there is a considerable distance between those who are most powerful on the global policy
arena and those who the policy actually concerns, the vulnerable people who are and will be
forced to migrate. Third, the issue of climate refugees also scores high on the dimension of
resources required or at stake. In this study I have found that the monetarization of the
problem is high. To handle the problem of probably millions of “new” refugees will take a
substantial amount of financial and administrative resources. These features indicate that the
findings from this study would generally be true also for many if not most other global policy
problems.
37
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
The main conclusion of this study is that the definition of global problems should be viewed
in a multidimensional way, not as different and competing definitions. When posing the two
questions to the text I found that each actor presented several aspects of how the problem
could be defined. In this way I was able to achieve a more multifaceted picture of the
problem. This allowed for a deeper understanding and a more dimensional analysis and I
argue that this is my most substantial contribution to problem definition in a global context.
The results from “The question of scale” and “Divisibility” are well suited to illustrate the
benefits of the multidimensional view.
The question of scale showed that the magnitude of policy problems of global change is such
that it is multidimensional and in fact not one problem but many. This is not the same as the
problem being defined differently by different actors. Here, the problem is defined quite
similarly by the different actors but it has several approach angles. I prefer to look at this as
different dimensions rather than different definitions. Several definitions of one problem is
problematic, it hinders the continuation of the policy process. Several dimensions of one
problem is an opportunity, it means that the actors have recognized its complexity. They are
dimensions in the way that they are pieces of the same puzzle, not different problems.
However, they are definitions in the way that several of the dimensions need to be approached
as problems of their own. As for the stage of problem definition, this means that the policy
analyst has to dig deeper. To ask oneself “what is the problem?” will merely scrape the
surface. This would be to identify the problem without interest in its nature or possible
solutions, not to actually define or construct the problem (see Bacchi 1999). Instead, that
question will have to be followed by “what is the problem with the problem?”, which for
these kinds of problems is probable to give several answers and hence open the door to the
multidimensional approach. To fully understand the problem and the possible set of
instruments that can be used, one would need to use the characteristics approach (or a similar
analytical framework) to analyze the different dimensions on their own.
The multidimensional approach also allows for the analyst to see to what extent the problem
is defined in terms of morality and responsibility or in practical ways of how to handle the
problem. This is of certain importance with global policy problems as they seem to have low
divisibility, they are lacking in clear, instant and individual benefits. That a problem to a
relatively high extent is defined in moral dimensions means that it rests upon a fragile base.
With unclear structures of the global policy process, global policy problems is dependent
upon that one actor “voluntarily” take the lead. Without clear benefits, this can be difficult.
The importance of the unstable moral dimensions becomes crucial and therefore important to
investigate already in the problem definition. If nothing else, the moral dimensions means that
there is at least some incentive for the global community to do something about the issue.
With the case of climate refugees, the dimensions of the problem definition are surprisingly
congruent between the actors. Still, the multidimensional approach is useful for structuring
and clarifying different aspects of the problem. For a problem where the definition differs
more though, the multidimensional view is helpful also with identifying exactly in which
ways the definitions are different and on what points they agree. To disaggregate the problem
definition into different dimensions is also make it easier to comprehend for the average
38
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
individual. This decreases the programmatic complexity of the policy problem (Peters &
Hornbeek 2005).
Most global policy problems score high on dimensions of time, distance and resources
(Morgan et al. 1999). A multidimensional approach to the problem definition, instead of
competing definitions, is helpful to fully grasp the parts that make the problem puzzle and
how it can be properly addressed. With a comprehensive and structured approach of the
problem definition also on a global level it is easier to focus on the unique possibilities of
impact, change and cooperation that the global policy arena offers.
In future research it would be fruitful to analyze more global policy problems with the
multidimensional view, also with comparative aims. How to dig deeper once having
established the dimensions would also be of interest. Are there other characteristics better
suitable to analyze dimensions, especially the ones that are not exactly problems in
themselves? It would be intriguing to look into the power relations of the global policy arena
and further investigate cooperation between different actors as well as who have the privilege
of defining these kinds of problems. As for the case of climate refugees, it would be
fascinating to follow the development of the policy process, especially on how moral values
might change as nation states get more involved and the policy needs to be concretized into
action.
39
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
8 References
8.1 Books, reports and articles
Acketoft, Tina (2008) Environmentally induced migration and displacement: a 21st century
challenge. Doc. 11785. Report from Committee on Migration, Refugees and
Population, Parliamentary Assembly of Council of Europe (PACE).
Bacchi, Carol Lee (1999) Women, Policy and Politics. The Construction of Policy Problems.
Sage Publications. Los Angeles, London, New Delhi, Singapore.
Biermann, Frank & Boas, Ingrid (2009) Preparing for a Warmer World. Towards a Global
Governance System to Protect Climate Refugees. Paper presented at 2009
Annual Convention of the International Studies Association 15-18 February
2009. New York, USA.
Cooper, Jessica B. (1998) “Environmental refugees: meeting the requirements of the refugee
convention” in New York University Environmental Law Journal. vol. 6, pp.
480–529.
Dery, David (1984) Problem Definition in Policy Analysis. University Press of Kansas.
Dery, David (2000) “Agenda Setting and Problem Definition” in Policy Studies, Vol. 21, No.
1, 2000. Carfax Publishing.
Docherty, Bonnie & Giannini, Tyler (2009) ”Confronting a Rising Tide: a Proposal for a
Convention on Climate Change Refugees” in Harvard Environmental Law
Review Vol. 33, p. 349-403.
EACH-FOR (2009) Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios. Synthesis
report.
European Commission & High Representative (2008) Climate Change and International
Security. Report. 7249/08. Council of the European Union. Brussels, 3 March
2008.
German Advisory Council on Global Change (2007) World in Transition: Climate Change as
a Security Risk. Report summary for policy makers. Secretariat WBGU. Berlin,
Germany.
the Greens/EFA group (2008) Declaration on Climate Migrations. European Parliament,
Brussels.
Held, David & McGrew Anthony (ed.) (2003) The Global Transformations Reader. An
Introduction to the Globalization Debate. Polity Press, Cambridge.
IOM (2009) Migration, Environment and Climate Change: Assessing the Evidence.
International Organization for Migration in collaboration with United Nations
University Institute for Environment and Human Security.
40
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Kellow, Aynsley (1999) ”International Organizations and Global Diplomacy: Some Theory
and a Case” in Soden, Dennis L. & Steel, Brent S. (eds.) (1999) Handbook of
Global Environmental Policy and Administration. Marcel Dekker, Inc. New
York, Basel.
Lasswell, Harold D. (1971) A Pre-View of Policy Sciences. American Elsevier Publishing
Company, Inc., New York.
Morgan, M. Granger et al. (1999) ”Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis are Often
Inadequate for Problems of Global Change” in Climatic Change 41, pp. 271281. Editorial Essay.
Myers, Norman & Kent, Jennifer (1995) Environmental Exodus. An Emergent Crisis in the
Global Arena. Climate Institute, Washington DC.
Myers, Norman (1997) “Environmental Refugees” in Population and Environment, Vol. 19,
No. 22, Nov. 1997, pp. 167-182.
Myers, Norman (2002) “Environmental refugees: a growing phenomenon of the 21st century”
in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Lond. B 2002, 357, pp. 609613.
Nagel, Stuart S. (ed.) (1991) Global Policy Studies. International Interaction toward
Improving Public Policy. Macmillan Academic and Professional ltd.
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire and London.
NRC (2008) Future Floods of Refugees. A comment on climate change, conflict and forced
migration. Norwegian Refugee Council.
NRC (2009) Climate Changed: People Displaced. Report. Norwegian Refugee Council.
OCHA-IDMC (2009) Monitoring disaster displacement in the context of climate change. The
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre of the Norwegian Refugee Council.
OHCHR (2009) Report of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human
Rights on the relationship between climate change and human rights.
A/HRC/10/61
Peters, B. Guy & Hoornbeek, John A. (2005) “The Problem of Policy Problems” in Eliadis,
Pearl et al. (2005) Designing Government. From Instruments to Governance.
McGill-Queen’s University Press. Montreal & Kingston, London, Ithaca.
Premfors, Rune (1989) Policyanalys. Kunskap, praktik och etik i offentlig verksamhet.
Studentlitteratur, Lund.
Portz, John (1996). “Problem Definitions and Policy Agendas: Shaping the Educational
Agenda in Boston”. Policy Studies Journal, Vol 24. Nr.3, 1996, pp. 371-368
41
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Quade, Edward S. (1989) “A Basic Framework for Policy Analysis” in Miyakawa, Tadao
(ed.) (1999) The Science of Public Policiy. Essential readings in policy sciences
I. Routledge, London and New York.
Reinecke, Wolfgang H. (1998) Global Public Policy. Governing without Government?
Brookings Institution Press, Washington D.C.
Renaud, Fabrice et al. (2007) Control, Adapt or Flee: How to Face Environmental
Migration? Interdisciplinary Security Connections, Publication Series of UNUEHS. No. 5/2007.
RSG on the HR of IDPs (2008) Displacement Caused by the Effects of Climate Change: Who
will be affected and what are the gaps in the normative frameworks for their
protection? Background paper from the Representative of the Secretary General
on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons
Simon, Herbert A. (1958) Administrative Behaviour. A Study of Decision-Making Processes
in Administrative Organizations. The Macmillan Company, New York.
Soroos, Marvin S. (1986) Beyond Sovereignty. The Challenge of Global Policy. University of
South Carolina Press. Columbia, South Carolina.
Soroos, Marvin S. (1991) “A Theoretical Framework for Global Policy Studies” in Nagel,
Stuart S. (ed.) (1991) Global Policy Studies. International Interaction toward
Improving Public Policy. Macmillan Academic and Professional ltd.
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire and London.
Stone, Deborah (2002) Policy Paradox: The Art of Political Decision Making. Revised
Edition. W.W. Norton & Company, New York, London.
Weiss, Janet A. (1989) “The powers of problem definition: The case of government
paperwork” in Policy Sciences 22: 97-121, 1989. KluwerAcademic Publishers.
Wildavsky, Aaron (1979) The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis. The Macmillan Press LTD,
London and Basingstoke.
Williams, Angela (2008) “Turning the Tide: Recognizing Climate Change Refugees in
International Law” in Law & Policy, Vol. 30, No. 4, October 2008.
Wrathall, David & Morris, Benjamin (2009) Confronting Environmental Migration. A
Framework for Research, Policy and Practice. Research Brief. Institute for
Environment and Human Security, United Nations University.
UNHCR (2009) Climate change, natural disasters and human displacement: a UNHCR
perspective. UNHCR Policy Paper.
UNHCR et al. (2009) Forced Displacement in the Context of Climate Change: Challenges for
States under International Law. Submission to the 6th session of the Ad Hoc
42
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWGLCA 6) from 1 until 12 June in Bonn.
UNU (2009) In Search of Shelter. Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human
Migration and Displacement. Paper submitted to the UNFCCC for the 6th
session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action under
the Convention (AWG-LCA 6) from 1 until 12 June in Bonn.
8.2 Internet sources
Internet 1:
Encyclopædia Britannica Bhopal disaster
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1257131/Bhopal-disaster, retrieved
on 17 February 2010.
Internet 2:
a) Swedish Migration Board Protection status
http://www.migrationsverket.se/info/1813_en.html, retrieved on 11 February
2010.
b) Swedish Migration Board Uppehållstillstånd och uppehållsrätter 2008
http://www.migrationsverket.se/info/479.html, retrieved on 11 February 2010.
43
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Appendix 1 – Table of sampled documents
1
Organization
UNHCR, NRC, RSG on
the HR of IDPs, UNU
Title & Year
Forced displacement in the
context of climate change
(2009)
Term
Forced displacement in
the context of climate
change
2
UNHCR
Human displacement
3
OHCHR
Climate change, natural
disasters
and human displacement (2009)
Report of the Office of the
United Nations High
Commissioner for Human
Rights on the relationship
between climate change and
human rights (2009)
4
RSG on the HR of IDPs
Displacement Caused by
the Effects of Climate
Change
5
UNU in cooperation
with CARE
International and
Columbia University,
and in collaboration
with the UNHCR and
the World Bank
European Commission
and High
Representative
EACH-FOR: several
partners including the
UNU (supported by the
European Commission)
Greens/EFA group of
the European
Parliament
German Advisory
Council on Global
Change
Committee on
Migration, Refugees
and Population of the
Parliamentary Assembly
of the council of Europe
(PACE)5
IOM (collaboration with
UNU-EHS and ccema
with support from the
Rockefeller foundation)
NRC
Displacement Caused by the
Effects of Climate Change: Who
will be affected and what are the
gaps in the normative
frameworks for their protection?
(2008)
In Search of Shelter: Mapping
the Effects of Climate Change
on Human Migration and
Displacement (2009)
the Effects of Climate
Change on Human
Migration and
Displacement
Submission to UNFCCC
conference
Climate change and
international security (2008)
Environmentallyinduced migration
Report to the European
council
EACH-FOR
Environmental Change and
Forced Migration Scenarios
(2009)
Declaration on climate
migrations (2008)
Environmentally
displaced persons
Specific Targeted Project
Scientific support to
policies
Climate migrations
Declaration
World in Transition: Climate
Change as a Security Risk
(2007)
Environmentally induced
migration and displacement: a
21st century challenge (2008)
Environmentallyinduced migration/
environmental migrants
Environmentally induced
migration
Report summary for
policymakers
Migration, environment and
climate change: assessing the
evidence (2009)
Impacts/consequences of
climate/env. change on
migration/human
mobility
Displacement
Report
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
5
Climate changed: People
displaced (2009)
Climate-change induced
displacement
Type
Submission to the 6th
session of the Ad Hoc
Working Group on LongTerm Cooperative Action
under
the Convention (AWGLCA 6)
Policy paper
Annual report of the United
Nations High
Commissioner for Human
Rights and reports of the
Office of the High
Commissioner and the
Secretary-General
Background paper
Report with draft resolution
Thematic report
Listed in references as Acketoft (2008)
44
Elin Jakobsson
Global Policy Making on Climate Refugees
Appendix 2 – Dimensions detected in each document
2
Organization
UNHCR, NRC, RSG
on the HR of IDPs,
UNU
UNHCR
3
OHCHR
4
RSG on the HR of
IDPs
5
UNU in cooperation
with CARE
International and
Columbia University,
and in collaboration
with the UNHCR and
the World Bank
European Commission
and High
Representative
EACH-FOR: several
partners including the
UNU (supported by
the European
Commission)
Greens/EFA group of
the European
Parliament
German Advisory
Council on Global
Change
Committee on
Migration, Refugees
and Population of the
Parliamentary
Assembly of the
council of Europe
(PACE)6
IOM (collaboration
with UNU-EHS and
ccema with support
from the Rockefeller
foundation)
NRC
1
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
6
Title & Year
Forced displacement in the
context of climate change
(2009)
Climate change, natural
disasters
and human displacement
(2009)
Report of the Office of the
United Nations High
Commissioner for Human
Rights on the relationship
between climate change and
human rights (2009)
Displacement Caused by the
Effects of Climate Change:
Who will be affected and what
are the gaps in the normative
frameworks for their
protection? (2008)
In Search of Shelter: Mapping
the Effects of Climate Change
on Human Migration and
Displacement (2009)
What is the problem?
a, c, f, h
Problem addressed?
a, b, c, e, f, g
a, b, c, f, h
a, b, d, e, f, h
a, b, c, f, g, h
a, b
a, b, c, f, g, h
a
b, c, d, g, h
a, c, e, f, g
Climate change and
international security (2008)
b, c, g, h
a, b, d, f
EACH-FOR
Environmental Change and
Forced Migration Scenarios
(2009)
b, c, d, g, h
a, b, c, d, f, g, h
Declaration on climate
migrations (2008)
a, b, c, d, g, h
a, b, c, d, e, f, h
World in Transition: Climate
Change as a Security Risk
(2007)
Environmentally induced
migration and displacement: a
21st century challenge (2008)
a, c, f, g, h
a, b, c, e, h
a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
x
a, b, c, d, e, f, h
Migration, environment and
climate change: assessing the
evidence (2009)
a, b, c, d, f, g, h
x
a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Climate changed: People
displaced (2009)
a, b, c, d, f, g, h
x
a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h
Listed in references as Acketoft (2008)
45