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climate Review Risks of Climate Change with Respect to the Singapore-Malaysia High Speed Rail System Sazrul Leena Binti Sa’adin 1 , Sakdirat Kaewunruen 2, * and David Jaroszweski 3 1 2 3 * Malaysia Department of Public Work, Ministry of Transport, Kuala Lumpur 50582, Malaysia; [email protected] Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education, The University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK; [email protected] Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected]; Tel.: +44-01214-142-670 Academic Editor: Yang Zhang Received: 4 August 2016; Accepted: 9 December 2016; Published: 20 December 2016 Abstract: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and many of the observed changes are unprecedented over the past five decades. Globally, the atmosphere and the ocean are becoming increasingly warmer, the amount of ice on the earth is decreasing over the oceans, and the sea level has risen. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the average increase in global temperature (combined land and surface) between the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period was 0.78 ◦ C (0.72 to 0.85). But should we prepare for such a relatively small change? The importance is not the means of the warming but the considerable likelihood of climate change that could trigger extreme natural hazards. The impact and the risk of climate change associated with railway infrastructure have not been fully addressed in the literature due to the differences in local environmental parameters. On the other hand, the current railway network in Malaysia, over the last decade, has been significantly affected by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Our research findings based on a critical literature review and expert interviews point out the extremes that can lead to asset system failure, degraded operation and ultimately, delays in train services. During flooding, the embankment of the track can be swept away and bridge can be demolished, while during drought, the embankment of the track can suffer from soil desiccation and embankment deterioration; high temperature increases the risk of track buckling and high winds can result in vegetation or foreign object incursion onto the infrastructure as well as exert an additional quasi-static burden. This review is of significant importance for planning and design of the newly proposed high speed rail link between Malaysia and Singapore. Keywords: railway infrastructure; high-speed rail; tracks; risk; management and monitoring; climate change; global warming; adaptation; operational readiness; project development planning 1. Introduction In recent years, there has been increasing interest to the policy makers to build High Speed Rails (HSRs) worldwide, including Malaysia. To develop this new form of transportation, the Malaysian government needs to ascertain that its new HSR system can cope with and adapt to climate change. In addition, the complexities of climate change and predictions of climate model outputs have introduced an additional measure of uncertainty for railroad operators [1,2]. Extreme weather has affected railway operations and safety, including fatalities, injuries and property damage. Despite climate change posing serious challenges to infrastructure projects, little research has been conducted in Malaysia into how vulnerable it could be, especially for transport infrastructure. It has been widely Climate 2016, 4, 65; doi:10.3390/cli4040065 www.mdpi.com/journal/climate Climate 2016, 4, 65 2 of 21 recognized that there is a need to integrate the consideration of climate change and its impacts into the development of policies and projects [3]. “Decisions made today—for example, in the creation of new infrastructure or other assets—need to occur in a way which ensures that the outcomes of those decisions are robust enough to cope with, or adapt to, changing climatic conditions in the future” [4]. Although climate change adaptation measures have been proposed to respond to extreme events at a higher level by many researchers [5–10], the infrastructure vulnerabilities and resilience-based design have not been addressed since their real impacts are truly associated with local parameters such as topology, geography, design and maintenance practice, and so on. For example, a reduced train speed will apply when the ambient temperature reaches a certain degree, but more effective rail stress management (such as rail creep adjustment, rail joints, stress-free fasteners, etc.) has not been discussed [10]. This has raised a research question and investigation to better understand the fundamental risks and impact of climate change and corresponding infrastructure vulnerabilities to pertinent extreme conditions. The present risk concept does not provide any specific asset management strategy to meaningfully repair, retrofit or replace any component effectively in a particular region, such as Malaysia [11]. As such, this paper serves to provide pathway for detailed and tailored adaptation solutions and to appropriately plan the resilience-based design and the development of the HSR system. High Speed Rail (HSR) from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia to Singapore, which is still in its planning stage (at the time of writing), would be the first of its kind in Malaysia. Prime Ministers of Malaysia and Singapore jointly announced the HSR project on the 19 February 2013 and described the HSR as a “Game Changer”. The project target is to be fully operational by 2020. The key concept of the HSR was derived by the Malaysia Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD) and it will have 7 stations, 2 terminal stations, which are in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, 5 transit stations, one in Negeri Sembilan and Malacca, and 3 in Johor. The HSR will have 2 operation systems, which are express, non-stop journey from Kuala Lumpur to Singapore, and the estimated journey time is 90 min, while the HSR Malaysia transit operation will have 7 stops including a terminus station, and the journey time will be 120 min. This journey time does not include the waiting time and immigration process. The trains are expected to run at 300 km/h or faster; however, the average speed will be lower due to the slower speed to approach the stations. The preliminary baseline alignment has been developed by SPAD as shown in Figure 1, but the detailed alignments remain confidential at this stage. The HSR will have a dedicated line, which is proposed to be a double track using a standard gauge. The HSR project is believed to impact the way of life for Malaysians and Singaporeans in terms of social, politics and economics. According to SPAD, the main objective of HSR is “to reduce travel time between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore to 90 min by strengthening the link between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines compared to the 5 to 6 h journey time by road or over 6 h by conventional train” [4]. Although plane travel time is 90 min, similar to the proposed HSR, the hassle of long hours waiting before and after departures will actually give a total journey time of 4.0 h by plane [11]. In contrast, passengers can still board the HSR and even arrive at the railway station 15 min before departure. The CBD shown in Figure 2 is the Central Business District. The introduction of HSR will increase the daily journey from KL to Singapore and vice versa and at the same time, the quality of life of people in both countries will be improved, and the economics of both countries will grow considerably. The HSR, according to the International Union of Railways [12,13], has a lower impact on climate and environment than all other compatible transport modes such as aviation and road transport, which are highly dependent on fossil fuels. Adoption of HSR might provide a better solution with respect to reducing the climate impact. Climate 2016, 4, 65 3 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 3 of 20 3 of 20 Figure 1. Proposed High Speed Rail Malaysia to Singapore (courtesy: SPAD). Figure 1. Proposed High Speed Rail Malaysia to Singapore (courtesy: SPAD). Figure 1. Proposed High Speed Rail Malaysia to Singapore (courtesy: SPAD). Figure 2. from KL to Singapore: and HSR Figure 2. 2. Travelling Travelling time time from from KL KL to to Singapore: Singapore: comparison comparison between between KTM, KTM, Bus, Bus, Plane Plane and and HSR HSR Figure Travelling time comparison between KTM, Bus, Plane (courtesy: SPAD). (courtesy: SPAD). (courtesy: SPAD). Although the HSR has been proposed by both Malaysian and Singaporean Governments, the Although the HSR has been proposed by both Malaysian and Singaporean Governments, the Although the HSR has been proposed by both Malaysian and Singaporean Governments, the lack lack of can be and has a of to the lack of progress progress be observed observed and has agiven given a window window of opportunity opportunity to include include the climate climate of progress can becan observed and has given window of opportunity to include the climate change change risks and adaptation strategy in the detailed design stage of the HSR system. Despite change and adaptation in the detailed of the HSR system. Despite risks andrisks adaptation strategy instrategy the detailed design stagedesign of the stage HSR system. Despite considerable considerable climate change research around the world, its application to risk assessment for high considerable climate change research around the world, its application to risk assessment for high climate change research around the world, its application to risk assessment for high speed rails in speed rails in not investigated. This is georisk hazards and their speed rails in Asia Asia is is investigated. not thoroughly thoroughly This hazards is because because hazards to and their Asia is not thoroughly This investigated. is because georisk andgeorisk their sensitivity climate sensitivity to climate change cannot be adequately assessed at a high‐level or top‐down analysis. As sensitivity to climate change cannot be adequately assessed at a high‐level or top‐down analysis. As change cannot be adequately assessed at a high-level or top-down analysis. As a result, there is a need a result, there is a need to assess climate change risk to high speed rail infrastructure at the design a result, there is a need to assess climate change risk to high speed rail infrastructure at the design and construction stages. The main objective of this paper is to identify the risks imposed on the high and construction stages. The main objective of this paper is to identify the risks imposed on the high Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 4 of 21 4 of 20 to assess climate change risk to high speed rail infrastructure at the design and construction stages. speed rail system caused by local conditions including topographical, geological and climate change The main objective of this paper is toroute identify the risks imposed on the high speed system caused conditions of the proposed HSR in Malaysia. The study also aims to rail evaluate how the by local conditions including topographical, geological and climate change conditions of the proposed infrastructure design can satisfy all the operational requirements given the climate impact issues. In HSR route in Malaysia. The study also aims to evaluate how the infrastructure design can satisfy all the carrying out this study, critical literature reviews were carried out. The data of Malaysia HSR are operational requirements given the climate impact issues. In carrying out this study, critical literature derived from SPAD, and the historical data of weather are supplied by the Malaysian Meteorological reviews werein carried The data Malaysia HSR arechange derivedand fromoperational SPAD, and requirement the historical for datathe of Department order out. to study the ofimpact of climate weather are supplied by the Malaysian Meteorological Department in order to study the impact of design of the infrastructure. We aim to investigate the undefined risks due to climate change with climate change and operational requirement for the design of the infrastructure. We aim to investigate respect to potential actions proposed to mitigate the impact. We have performed literature searches the undefined risks due to climate change with respect to potential actions proposed to mitigate the on open databases with respect to Malaysian local climate incidents and analyzed them. The insight impact. We have performed literature searches on open databases with respect to Malaysian local will help engineers to better design and construct the infrastructure critical to economic growth of climate incidents and them. The insight will help engineers to better design and construct cities and regions. In analyzed this paper, the local priorities on climate change effects and the lessons the infrastructure critical to economicsystems growth of cities regions. In this paper, the local prioritiesand on pertaining to railway transport will be and discussed first, and then geological climate change effects and the lessons pertaining to railway transport systems will be discussed first, topographical issues and their association with the real climate change effects will be presented. and then geological and topographical issues and their association with the real climate change effects Finally, the risk and consequences will be reviewed and analysed. will be presented. Finally, the risk and consequences will be reviewed and analysed. 2. Climate, Geography and Lessons Learnt 2. Climate, Geography and Lessons Learnt Malaysia is divided into 2 parts, Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia (refer to Figure 3, Malaysia is divided into 2 parts, Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia (refer to Figure 3, which which are separated by the South China Sea). Peninsular Malaysia is divided into 2 parts, west and are separated by the South China Sea). Peninsular Malaysia is divided into 2 parts, west and east coasts, east coasts, by the Titiwangsa Mountains. Figure 3 clearly shows that the South China Sea separates by the Titiwangsa Mountains. Figure 3 clearly shows that the South China Sea separates the climate the climate change impacts in Malaysian geography, and the climate variation pertaining to the high change impacts in Malaysian geography, and the climate variation pertaining to the high speed rail speed rail line between Singapore and Malaysia is restrained by the shore surrounding the western line between peninsular. Singapore and Malaysia is restrained by the shore surrounding the western peninsular. Figure 3. Malaysia Map from Google Maps. Figure 3. Malaysia Map from Google Maps. The climate in Malaysia is dominated by 2 monsoon regimes, namely the northeast monsoon The climatemonsoon. in Malaysia is dominated by 2 monsoon regimes, namely northeast monsoon and southwest The northeast monsoon circulates during the the months of December, and southwest monsoon. The northeast monsoon circulates during the months of December, January January and February, which is Malaysia’s wettest season and the period where the most flooding and February, which is Malaysia’s wettest season and the period where the most flooding occurs. occurs. Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon occurs between the months of May and September, the Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon occurs between the months of May and September, the drier drier period for the whole country leading to droughts in this period. Being in the equatorial zone period for the whole country leading to droughts in this period. Being in the equatorial zone and a and a tropical country, the average temperature throughout the year is constantly high (26 °C) and tropical country, thehumidity average temperature throughout the yearMalaysia is constantly (26 ◦ C) and there is there is very high due to the high temperature. also high has very heavy rainfall very high humidity due to the high temperature. Malaysia also has very heavy rainfall which is more which is more than 2500 mm per year [14]. than “Warming 2500 mm per of year the [14]. climate system is unequivocal and since the 1950s, many of the observed “Warming of the climate unequivocal and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes changes are unprecedented system over isdecades to millennia” [14,15]. According to the Malaysia are unprecedented over decades to millennia” [14,15]. According to the Malaysia Meteorological Meteorological Department [16], earth surface temperature records have clearly indicated that the climate of the earth is warming, with the rise being due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Thus, in the next 50 years, Malaysia will experience Climate 2016, 4, 65 5 of 21 Department [16], earth surface temperature records have clearly indicated that the climate of the earth is warming, with the rise being due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Climate 2016, 4, 65 5 of 20 the atmosphere. Thus, in the next 50 years, Malaysia will experience higher temperatures, changing rainfall rising sea levels and morepatterns, frequent rising extreme weather ranging from drought higher patterns, temperatures, changing rainfall sea levels events and more frequent extreme to floods. The Malaysian famous rail jungle (east coast line) (refer to Figure 4), which is operated by weather events ranging from drought to floods. The Malaysian famous rail jungle (east coast line) National Malaysia Railway (KTM), was disrupted for almost 6 months due to the massive flood in (refer to Figure 4), which is operated by National Malaysia Railway (KTM), was disrupted for almost December 2014. The damage included the railway quarters, signalling, tracks, locomotives, machinery 6 months due to the massive flood in December 2014. The damage included the railway quarters, and rolling stock. The disruption machinery affected thousands of workers, traders and children going to school. signalling, tracks, locomotives, and rolling stock. The disruption affected thousands of There is still one stretch of line that is not back in operation due to the railway bridge in Kemubu, workers, traders and children going to school. There is still one stretch of line that is not back in Kelantan, which completely collapsed as evidenced in Figure 5. Operation of the train service in the operation due to the railway bridge in Kemubu, Kelantan, which completely collapsed as evidenced east coast is toof bethe fully operational bythe February 2016 the completion the railway in Figure 5. expected Operation train service in east coast is with expected to be fully of operational by bridge in Kemubu. Construction of the new 250 m long bridge across the Nenggiri River is expected to February 2016 with the completion of the railway bridge in Kemubu. Construction of the new 250 m cost RM30 million or GBP4 million [17]. This incident should provide a lesson to the railway industries long bridge across the Nenggiri River is expected to cost RM30 million or GBP4 million [17]. This and policy makers that extreme weather can have a severe impact to the transportation operations incident should provide a lesson to the railway industries and policy makers that extreme weather as well as their infrastructure Rebuilding operations railway infrastructure is notinfrastructure easy and very[18–23]. costly; can have a severe impact to [18–23]. the transportation as well as their thus, to provide a reliable railway system the future, the to impact of climate change are Rebuilding railway infrastructure is not into easy and very studies costly; of thus, provide a reliable railway needed [24]. From these studies, the adaptation of railway infrastructures and rolling stock to climate system into the future, studies of the impact of climate change are needed [24]. From these studies, change could be established. the adaptation of railway infrastructures and rolling stock to climate change could be established. Figure 4. Malaysia rail map (courtesy: SPAD). Figure 4. Malaysia rail map (courtesy: SPAD). Climate 2016, 4, 65 6 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 6 of 20 Figure 5. Malaysia East Coast Line railway bridge which crosses Nenggiri River in Kemubu, Figure 5. Malaysia East Coast Line railway bridge which crosses Nenggiri River in Kemubu, Kelantan Kelantan was completely due flooding to massive flooding 2014 in December (courtesy: Malaysia was completely lost due to lost massive in December (courtesy:2014 Malaysia Department of Department of Public Works). Public Works). 3. Topographical and Geological Challenging Conditions to Malaysia 3. Topographical and Geological Challenging Conditions to Malaysia To thoroughly assess emerging risks, it is essential to understand conditions of the soils and To thoroughly assess emerging risks, it is essential to understand conditions of the soils and potential foundation of rail infrastructure, which is highly sensitive to climate. It has been decided potential foundation of rail infrastructure, which is highly sensitive to climate. It has been decided by by SPAD that the HSR Malaysia route will be along the coastal area. Malaysia comprises a wide SPAD that the HSR Malaysia route will be along the coastal area. Malaysia comprises a wide range of range of rock types from the sands and silts of the coastal plains to the granite of the Main Range. rock types from the sands and silts of the coastal plains to the granite of the Main Range. Geologists, as Geologists, as shown in Figures 6 and 7, grouped the rocks according to their type, age and shown in Figures 6 and 7, grouped the rocks according to their type, age and environmental deposition. environmental deposition. The most widely used unit for geology reference is based on the The most widely used unit for geology reference is based on the formation; each type is given its own formation; each type is given its own geographical name. In Peninsular Malaysia, the geology range geographical name. In Peninsular Malaysia, the geology range from Cambrian to the Quartenary, that is from Cambrian to the Quartenary, that is from 570 million years to about 10,000 years ago, is from 570 million years to about 10,000 years ago, is represented and shown in Figure 6. Sedimentation represented and shown in Figure 6. Sedimentation was unremitting throughout the Palaezoic and was unremitting throughout the Palaezoic and Mesozoic eras and due to the basin instability, there Mesozoic eras and due to the basin instability, there were major faults within and between the were major faults within and between the Palaezoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic group of rocks, which are Palaezoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic group of rocks, which are grouped according to four types of grouped according to four types of belts, namely the Western Belt, Bentong-Raub Suture, Central Belt belts, namely the Western Belt, Bentong‐Raub Suture, Central Belt and Easter Belt zone. Thus, and Easter Belt zone. Thus, Granitoids occupy nearly half of Peninsular Malaysia. Granitoids occupy nearly half of Peninsular Malaysia. From Gunung Gagau in the north to Gunung Panti in the south, which is located at the eastern From Gunung Gagau in the north to Gunung Panti in the south, which is located at the eastern Peninsular of Malaysia, sedimentary basins can be found. The sediments, which comprise sandstone, Peninsular of Malaysia, sedimentary basins can be found. The sediments, which comprise conglomerate and shales with minor coal seams and volcanic, show fluvial, lalcustrine and deltaic sandstone, conglomerate and shales with minor coal seams and volcanic, show fluvial, lalcustrine conditions of deposition. Geological Maps of Peninsular Malaysia in Figure 6 show that Malaysia’s and deltaic conditions of deposition. Geological Maps of Peninsular Malaysia in Figure 6 show that coastal area consists of mostly quarternary deposits [25,26]. Only in the straits of Malacca is the coastal Malaysia’s coastal area consists of mostly quarternary deposits [25,26]. Only in the straits of Malacca geology in the form of ordovicion phylites, schists and limestone. Kinta and Klang Valley contain is the coastal geology in the form of ordovicion phylites, schists and limestone. Kinta and Klang valuable tin ore. Thus, Kuala Lumpur in Klang Valley was named the capital city of Malaysia due to Valley contain valuable tin ore. Thus, Kuala Lumpur in Klang Valley was named the capital city of the rise of tin mining in the middle of the 19th century. Malaysia due to the rise of tin mining in the middle of the 19th century. Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 7 of 21 7 of 20 Singapore Figure 6. Geology Map of Peninsular Malaysia, modified from [25]. Figure 6. Geology Map of Peninsular Malaysia, modified from [25]. As shown in Figure 8, the proposed HSR route starting from Kuala Lumpur will pass through a As shown in Figure 8, the proposed HSR route starting from Kuala Lumpur will pass through a carboniferous area, which prominently consists of limestone. The route then will cross granite in the carboniferous area, which prominently consists of limestone. The route then will cross granite in the Seremban area. Towards to the south, the alignment will pass through the limestone and sandstone Seremban area. Towards to the south, the alignment will pass through the limestone and sandstone area. In the south bound region, the HSR route from Melaka to Nusajaya lies on the coastal area area. In the south bound region, the HSR route from Melaka to Nusajaya lies on the coastal area matching the geology profile of marine and continental deposits. Mostly, the soil conditions are matching the geology profile of marine and continental deposits. Mostly, the soil conditions are basically in the form of clay, silt and peat. basically in the form of clay, silt and peat. According to Bakshipouri et al. [27,28], approximately 40% (236.827 km22) of the Kuala Lumpur According to Bakshipouri et al. [27,28], approximately 40% (236.827 km ) of the Kuala Lumpur area is underlain by unique limestone and karst, which are extensively developed and classified as area is underlain by unique limestone and karst, which are extensively developed and classified as extreme Karst class Kv (see Figure 7). The process of karst formation commences as rainfall (H2O) extreme Karst class Kv (see Figure 7). The process of karst formation commences as rainfall (H2 O) that that passes from the atmosphere onto the top, where it then infiltrates into the ground. Mixed with passes from the atmosphere onto the top, where it then infiltrates into the ground. Mixed with (CO2 ) (CO2) gas from the air and soil, this water produces a weak carbonic acid (H2CO3), which seeps gas from the air and soil, this water produces a weak carbonic acid (H2 CO3 ), which seeps further into further into the ground and makes contact with the limestone (CaCO3) and/or dolomite the ground and makes contact with the limestone (CaCO3 ) and/or dolomite (CaMg(CO3 )3 ). Figure 8 (CaMg(CO3)3). Figure 8 shows typical morphological ground conditions within five classes of the shows typical morphological ground conditions within five classes of the engineering classification of engineering classification of karst. These examples show horizontal bedding of the limestone; karst. These examples show horizontal bedding of the limestone; dipping bedding planes and inclined dipping bedding planes and inclined fractures add complexity to most of the features and also create fractures add complexity to most of the features and also create planar failures behind steep cliff faces. planar failures behind steep cliff faces. The dotted line represents any type of clastic soil or surface The dotted line represents any type of clastic soil or surface sediment [29]. sediment [29]. Climate 2016, 4, 65 8 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 8 of 20 Juvenile karst kI Climate 2016, 4, 65 8 of 20 Juvenile karst kI Youthful karst kII Youthful karst kII Mature karst kIII Mature karst kIII Complex karst kIV Complex karst kIV Extreme karst kV Extreme karst kV Figure 7. Typical morphological features of of karstic karstic ground within five five classes of the Figure 7. Typical morphological features groundconditions conditions within classes of the engineering classification of karst, modified from [29]. engineering classification of karst, modified from [29]. Figure 7. Typical morphological features of karstic ground conditions within five classes of the engineering classification of karst, modified from [29]. Figure 8. Cont. Climate 2016, 4, 65 9 of 21 Climate 2016, 4, 65 9 of 20 Figure 8. Geological Map of the HSR Malaysia route, modified from [25]. Figure 8. Geological Map of the HSR Malaysia route, modified from [25]. 4. Global and Malaysia Climate Change Predictions 4. Global and Malaysia Climate Change Predictions 4.1. Climate and Weather 4.1. Climate and Weather The American Meteorological Society defines climate as: “The slowly varying aspects of the The American Meteorological Society defines climate as: characterised “The slowlyin varying aspects of the atmosphere‐hydrosphere‐land surface system. It is typically terms of suitable atmosphere-hydrosphere-land surface system. It is typically characterised in terms of suitable averages averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more, taking into consideration the of thevariability climate system periods of a quantities”. month or more, taking into consideration variability in time over of these averaged According to Dessler [30], weather the refers to the in time of these averaged quantities”. According to Dessler [30], weather refers to the actual state of the actual state of the atmosphere at a particular time. For example, weather in Birmingham on 26 July 2015 was sunny for the whole day without any precipitation with a temperature of 19 °C during the atmosphere at a particular time. For example, weather in Birmingham on 26 July 2015 was sunny for day and 10 °C at night. Climate, in contrast, is used as a statistical description of the weather over a the whole day without any precipitation with a temperature of 19 ◦ C during the day and 10 ◦ C at of time, usually is a few Climate description is a record of which indicates over the low and high night.period Climate, in contrast, useddecades. as a statistical the weather a period of time, temperatures at certain places for a period of time. usually a few decades. Climate is a record which indicates the low and high temperatures at certain places4.2. Global Climate Change for a period of time. 4.2. GlobalThe American Meteorological Society defines the term climate change as follows [31]: “It is any Climate Change systematic change in the long‐term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or The American Meteorological Societyor defines change asany follows [31]: “It is any winds) sustained over several decades longer”. the In term other climate words, if there is change between systematic change in thefor long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, statistic of weather such a period A and period B, that is climate change. According to the or winds) sustained over several longer”. In other words, if there is any(SPM) change observations of the IPCC decades Working orGroup 1 Summary for Policy makers of between the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report [31], the evidence for statistic of weather for such a period A and period B, that is climate change. According to the rapid climate change is compelling: observations of the IPCC Working Group 1 Summary for Policy makers (SPM) of the Intergovernmental Paneli.on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report [31], the evidence for rapid climate change Global temperature rise is compelling: ii. Sea level rise i. ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. ix. iii. Warming oceans temperature rise iv.Global Shrinking ice sheets v. Sea Declining Arctic sea ice level rise vi.Warming Glacial retreat oceans vii. Extreme events Shrinking ice sheets viii. Ocean acidification Arctic sea ice ix.Declining Decreased snow cover Glacial retreat Extreme events Ocean acidification Decreased snow cover Climate 2016, 4, 65 10 of 21 4.2.1. Global Temperature Rise Climate 2016, 4, 65 10 of 20 One of4.2.1. Global Temperature rise the parameters often associated with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each of 10 of 20 the last 3Climate 2016, 4, 65 decades, the Earth’s surface has constantly experienced increasing warmer temperatures. One of the parameters often associated with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each The period 2012 was thesurface warmest period of the last 1400 years in the of from the 1983 last 3 todecades, the likely Earth’s has 30-year constantly experienced increasing warmer 4.2.1. Global Temperature rise Northern Hemisphere [32]. As shown in Figure 9 below, for the period 1880 to 2012, there was a temperatures. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30‐year period of the last 1400 One of the parameters often associated with climate change is temperature. Since 1850, in each ◦ C As shown years in the Northern Hemisphere in Figure 9 below, combined for the period 1880 to 2012, linear warming trend of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06)[32]. [2] for globally averaged and ocean surface of the last 3 decades, the Earth’s surface has constantly experienced increasing warmer there was a linear warming trend of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06) °C [2] for globally averaged combined and temperature data. The different colours in the graph indicate different data sets. The ocean warming temperatures. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30‐year period of the last 1400 ocean surface temperature data. The different colours in the graph indicate different data sets. The ◦ C per increasedyears nearin the surface, and the upper 75As shown m warmed by 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) decade over the the Northern Hemisphere [32]. in Figure 9 below, for the period 1880 to 2012, ocean warming increased near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) °C per there was a linear warming trend of 0.85 (0.65 to 1.06) °C [2] for globally averaged combined and period 1971 to 2010. decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Surface temperature Surface temperature ocean surface temperature data. The different colours in the graph indicate different data sets. The ocean warming increased near the surface, and the upper 75 m warmed by 0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) °C per decade over the period 1971 to 2010. Figure 9.Figure 9. Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, modified from [29]. Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, modified from [29]. 4.2.2. Sea Level Rise Figure 9. Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature anomaly, modified from [29]. level rise can be related to climate change due to two reasons [30]: first as terrestrial ice 4.2.2. Sea LevelSea Rise melts, the melted water runs into the ocean, increasing the total amount of water in the ocean and 4.2.2. Sea Level Rise Sea level change Sea level change therefore the sea level. Secondly, the water level expands when it warms. Figure 10 shows the global Sea level rise can be related to climate change due to two reasons [30]: first as terrestrial ice melts, Sea level rise can be related to climate change due to two reasons [30]: first as terrestrial ice mean level increased by 0.19 m between 2010. That is 1.7 inmm/year in 1901 3.2 the melted watersea runs into the ocean, increasing the1901 totaland amount of water the ocean and to therefore melts, the melted water runs into the ocean, increasing the total amount of water in the ocean and mm/year in 2010. Since the mid 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. the sea level. Secondly, the water level expands when it warms. Figure 10 shows the global mean sea therefore the sea level. Secondly, the water level expands when it warms. Figure 10 shows the global Colours indicate different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first mean sea increased by 1901 0.19 m between 1901 and That is in 1.7 1901 mm/year 1901 to 3.2 level increased by level 0.19 m between and 2010. That is 1.72010. mm/year to 3.2in mm/year in 2010. year of satellite altimetry data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured mm/year in 2010. Since the mid 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. Since the mid 19th Century, the rate of sea level rise has been greater than before. Colours indicate shading. Colours indicate different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first different data sets. All datasets are aligned to have the same value in 1993, the first year of satellite year of satellite altimetry data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured altimetryshading. data (red). Where assessed, uncertainties are indicated by coloured shading. Figure 10. Global average sea level change, modified from [29]. 4.2.3. Extreme Events Figure 10. Global average sea level change, modified from [29]. Figure 10.IPCC Global average sea level change, modified [29].days and nights has According to the [31], it is very likely that the number from of cold decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale, and it is likely 4.2.3. Extreme Events that Events the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. 4.2.3. Extreme According to the IPCC [31], it is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has Precipitation has also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency decreased and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale, and it is likely According to the IPCC [31], it is very likely that the number of cold days and nights has decreased and intensity of heavy precipitation events are likely greater than before. that the frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. and the number of warm days and nights has increased on the global scale, and it is likely that the Precipitation has also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency frequency of heat waves has increased in large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia. Precipitation has and intensity of heavy precipitation events are likely greater than before. also increased rather than decreased. In North America and Europe, the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are likely greater than before. Climate 2016, 4, 65 11 of 21 4.3. Malaysia Climate Change Climate 2016, 4, 65 11 of 20 Past Climate Trends 4.3. Malaysia Climate Change Malaysia is located near to the equator and is thus characterised as a tropical country with Past Climate Trends a monsoon climate, given the heavy and constant precipitation all year round. The weather is Malaysia is located near to the equator and is thus characterised as a tropical country with a strongly influenced by the topographical features such as the mountain and sea land configuration. monsoon climate, given the heavy and constant precipitation all year round. The weather is strongly Two monsoons which dominate the Malaysia climate according to the Malaysia Metereological influenced the topographical features such as the that mountain and sea configuration. Two from Department [16]by are the summer Southwest Monsoon influences theland climate of the region monsoons which dominate the Malaysia climate according to the Malaysia Metereological May to September, and the winter Northeast Monsoon from November to February. Tropical storms Department [16] are the summer Southwest Monsoon that influences the climate of the region from and depressions form in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean sector. May to September, and the winter Northeast Monsoon from November to February. Tropical storms The obvious change in climate that Southeast Asia is currently experiencing is increasing surface and depressions form in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean sector. air temperature. The Elchange Nino-Southern (ENSO), oscillation of the Indian The obvious in climate Oscillation that Southeast Asia time-scale-based is currently experiencing is increasing Oceansurface Dipoleair (IOD) and the intraseasonal MaddenOscillation Julian Oscillation may influence extensively temperature. The El Nino‐Southern (ENSO), (MJO) time‐scale‐based oscillation of the observed interannual and intraseasonal rainfall distribution in Southeast Asia. There are several the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the intraseasonal Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) may influence extensively the observed interannual and intraseasonal rainfall distribution in Southeast studies that demonstrate tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific have increased, with a major Asia. There are several studies that demonstrate tropical cyclones originating in the Pacific impact on the Philippines and Vietnam, including the Peninsular Malaysia southern boundhave massive increased, with a major impact on the Philippines and Vietnam, including the Peninsular Malaysia flood in 2006 and 2007 [33]. The increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall have both significantly southern bound massive flood in 2006 and 2007 [33]. The increasing temperature and decreasing increased the intensity and spread of forest fires in Southeast Asia. Fires in peat lands in Indonesia rainfall have both significantly increased the intensity and spread of forest fires in Southeast Asia. during the El Nino dry season are now common every year and cause haze in most ASEAN countries. Fires in peat lands in Indonesia during the El Nino dry season are now common every year and The countries that badly affected due to this haze arethat Indonesia, Malaysia and to Singapore. cause haze in are most ASEAN countries. The countries are badly affected due this haze In are 2005, the Prime Minister of Malaysia declared a state of emergency in Port Klang, Selangor, 40 km Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. In 2005, the Prime Minister of Malaysia declared a state of from Kualaemergency in Port Klang, Selangor, 40 km from Kuala Lumpur after the Air Pollution Index reached Lumpur after the Air Pollution Index reached 500—the emergency level [34]. 500—the emergency level [34]. (a) Temperature (a) Temperature The Malaysia Metereological Department [16] has selected Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Kuantan and The meteorological Malaysia Metereological Department [16] has selected Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Petaling Jaya stations to represent West Malaysia and Peninsular Malaysia,Kuantan respectively, and Petaling Jaya meteorological stations to represent West Malaysia and Peninsular Malaysia, to study the trend of both temperature and rainfall data over the last 40 years (1968–2007). Figure 11 respectively, to study the trend of both temperature and rainfall data over the last 40 years (1968– shows increasing temperatures throughout the 40-year period for the four stations. Kuching shows the 2007). Figure 11 shows increasing temperatures throughout the 40‐year period for the four stations. smallest increase in temperature, which may be due to the larger areas of forest cover in Sarawak and Kuching shows the smallest increase in temperature, which may be due to the larger areas of forest the least urbanisation compared to the other states in Malaysia. There was also evidence that strong cover in Sarawak and the least urbanisation compared to the other states in Malaysia. There was also El Nino events were recorded in 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991 and 1997 that are related to the significant rise evidence that strong El Nino events were recorded in 1972, 1982, 1987, 1991 and 1997 that are related in temperature recorded (Figure 12). to the significant rise in temperature recorded (Figure 12). 11. Annual Mean Temperature Trend Trend for for 44 Meteorological Meteorological Stations Malaysia FigureFigure 11. Annual Mean Temperature Stations(Courtesy: (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Meteorological Department). Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 12 of 21 12 of 20 Figure Long-Term Mean Figure 12. 12. Long‐Term Mean Temperature Temperature for for West West Malaysia. Malaysia. Colours Colours indicate indicate the the temperature temperature in in degrees January, February. MAM-March, April,April, May. JJA-June, July, August. degrees Celsius. Celsius. DJF-December, DJF‐December, January, February. MAM‐March, May. JJA‐June, July, SON-September, October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). August. SON‐September, October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Seasonal mean temperature for Peninsular Malaysia is shown in Figure 12 and is categorised as Seasonal mean temperature for Peninsular Malaysia is shown in Figure 12 and is categorised as 30‐year (1961–1990) temperature and 10‐year (1998–2007) temperature. The analysis performed by 30-year (1961–1990) temperature and 10-year (1998–2007) temperature. The analysis performed by the Malaysia Metereological Department [16] is divided into 4 seasons, December‐January‐February the Malaysia Metereological Department [16] is divided into 4 seasons, December-January-February (DJF), March‐April‐May (MAM), June‐July‐August (JJA) and September‐October‐November (SON). (DJF), March-April-May (MAM), June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON). It is shown in Figure 12 that, despite a 10 or 30 year duration, MAM and JJM are the warmest and It is shown in Figure 12 that, despite a 10 or 30 year duration, MAM and JJM are the warmest and coldest seasons seasons inin Malaysia, respectively. Figure 12 clearly also clearly that Malaysia is warmer. getting coldest Malaysia, respectively. Figure 12 also showsshows that Malaysia is getting warmer. According to the Malaysia Metereological Department [16], an average temperature According to the Malaysia Metereological Department [16], an average temperature increase of 0.5 ◦ C increase 0.5 °C to 1.5 was recorded in Peninsular Malaysia the and SON temperature recorded the increase highest to 1.5 ◦ C of was recorded in °C Peninsular Malaysia and SON recorded highest temperature increase followed by DJF. followed by DJF. (b) Rainfall Rainfall analysis (b) analysis Malaysian rainfall rainfall distribution distribution patterns patterns are determined both seasonal wind patterns Malaysian are determined byby both seasonal wind flowflow patterns and and local topographic features. The east coast of Peninsular Malaysia is likely to have more heavy local topographic features. The east coast of Peninsular Malaysia is likely to have more heavy rain as rain as the area is more exposed to the South China Sea. However, the west coast area of Peninsular the area is more exposed to the South China Sea. However, the west coast area of Peninsular Malaysia Malaysia is likely to be sheltered from heavy rains due to the topographical features. Thus, the east is likely to be sheltered from heavy rains due to the topographical features. Thus, the east coast has coast has experienced more flooding during the monsoon season compared to the west coast. Figure experienced more flooding during the monsoon season compared to the west coast. Figure 13 shows 13 shows the average occurrence of rainfall based on the south coast, high land, east coast and west the average occurrence of rainfall based on the south coast, high land, east coast and west coast of coast of Peninsular Malaysia. Readings were recorded from 12 am till 9 pm. It is stated that the south Peninsular Malaysia. Readings were recorded from 12 am till 9 pm. It is stated that the south coast coast will experience more rainfall during April, and the east coast will get more rainfall in the same will experience more rainfall during April, and the east coast will get more rainfall in the same month month due to the seasonal times. 14 Long-Term shows the Mean Long‐Term Mean Rainfall for Peninsular due to the seasonal times. Figure 14 Figure shows the Rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia, the Malaysia, the colours rainfall in January, mm. DJF‐December, January, April, February; colours indicate the total indicate rainfall inthe mm.total DJF-December, February; MAM-March, May; MAM‐March, April, SON-September, May; JJA‐June, October, July, August; SON‐September, October, November [16]. JJA-June, July, August; November [16]. Comparing actual records of rainfall Comparing actual records of rainfall quantity between 1961–1990 and 1998–2007, it is found that the Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 13 of 21 13 of 20 Peninsular experienced more rainfall in the the solid more evidence of quantity between 1961–1990 and 1998–2007, it islatter foundperiod, that thedemonstrating Peninsular experienced rainfall Climate 2016, 4, 65 13 of 20 climate change. in the latter period, demonstrating the solid evidence of climate change. Peninsular experienced more rainfall in the latter period, demonstrating the solid evidence of climate change. Figure 13. of based on high land, east coast and west coast Figure 13. Occurrence Occurrence of rainfall rainfall based on the south coast,high highland, land, east coast and west coast of Figure 13. Occurrence of rainfall based on the the south south coast, coast, east coast and west coast of of Peninsular Malaysia (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Peninsular Malaysia (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Peninsular Malaysia (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Figure 14. Long‐Term Mean Rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia. Colours indicate the total rainfall in Figure 14. Long-Term Mean Rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia. Colours indicate the total rainfall in mm. mm. DJF‐December, January, MAM-March, February. MAM‐March, May. JJA‐June, August. DJF-December, January, February. April, May.April, JJA-June, July, August.July, SON-September, SON‐September, October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Figure 14. Long‐Term Mean Rainfall for Peninsular Malaysia. Colours indicate the total rainfall in mm. DJF‐December, January, February. MAM‐March, April, May. JJA‐June, July, August. SON‐September, October, November (Courtesy: Malaysia Meteorological Department). Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 14 of 21 14 of 20 5. Climate Change Effects on Extreme Weather and Associated Effects on Railway Infrastructure 5. Climate Change Effects on Extreme Weather and Associated Effects on Railway Infrastructure Extreme weather events have occurred frequently in Malaysia over the past decade. The most Extreme weather events have occurred frequently in Malaysia over the past decade. The most devastating natural disasters experienced in Malaysia are floods and landslides. devastating natural disasters experienced in Malaysia are floods and landslides. 5.1. Floods 5.1. Floods The destructive flood in southern peninsular of Malaysia, which occurred in two events back to The destructive flood in southern peninsular of Malaysia, which occurred in two events back back in December 2006 and and January 2007, is known as Typhoon Utor. The massive flood flood in Kota to back in December 2006 January 2007, is known as Typhoon Utor. The massive in Tinggi Johor started when the Northeast monsoon brought heavy rain through a series of storms. Kota Tinggi Johor started when the Northeast monsoon brought heavy rain through a series of storms. The series of floods were unusual as the 2006 average rainfall return period was 50 years, while 2007 The series of floods were unusual as the 2006 average rainfall return period was 50 years, while 2007 had more than a 100‐year return period. Local weather changes are among the natural causes that had more than a 100-year return period. Local weather changes are among the natural causes that triggered the flash flood [35,36]. triggered the flash flood [35,36]. 5.2. Landslides 5.2. Landslides Asia has suffered more landslides compared to other world regions due to its climate nature. Asia has suffered more landslides compared to other world regions due to its climate nature. According are the According to to United United Nations Nations University University [37], [37], among among natural natural disasters, disasters, landslides landslides are the seventh seventh ranked killer, after windstorms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanos and extreme temperatures, ranked killer, after windstorms, floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanos and extreme temperatures, among 940 people annually were killed by landslides in the 1993 1993 to 2002, among which which an an average average ofof 940 people annually were killed by landslides in decade the decade to most of those victims from Asia. There are many factors that can trigger landslides including changes 2002, most of those victims from Asia. There are many factors that can trigger landslides including in slope geometry, water level, rainfall intensity, and loading. However, the major cause of landslides changes in slope geometry, water level, rainfall intensity, and loading. However, the major cause of in Malaysia is high precipitation. landslides in Malaysia is high precipitation. As Figure 15 shows, traffic may slow due to rock falls but can still swerve and go around the debris; As Figure 15 shows, traffic may slow due to rock falls but can still swerve and go around the however, this is different with trains. The trains do not have this option even if the smallest landslide debris; however, this is different with trains. The trains do not have this option even if the smallest occurs on occurs the railway line. This brings greater risk to the risk trains its passengers. It is important landslide on the railway line. This brings greater to and the trains and its passengers. It is for the infrastructure manager to design theto slope and the trackslope embankment with the consideration of important for the infrastructure manager design and track embankment with the extreme rainfall due to climate change. consideration of extreme rainfall due to climate change. Figure 15. The Bukit Lanjan rockfall along the New Klang Valley Expressway in November 2003 resulted Figure 15. The Bukit Lanjan rockfall along the New Klang Valley Expressway in November in a six‐month closure of that particular stretch (Courtesy: Malaysia Department of Public Works). 2003 resulted in a six-month closure of that particular stretch (Courtesy: Malaysia Department of Public Works). The wettest winter on record in England and Wales caused widespread and severe consequences including flooding and disruption to road transport in the and Somerset It also The wettest winter on record in England and Wales caused widespread severeLevels. consequences caused the collapse of disruption the iconic to South Railway sea wall Levels. at Dawlish to the Figure 16), including flooding and road Devon transport in the Somerset It also(refer caused collapse undermining rail access to and from the counties of Cornwall and Devon [38–42]. This can of the iconic South Devon Railway sea wall at Dawlish (refer to Figure 16), undermining rail access be to evidence of a secondary effect on a railway line. and from the counties of Cornwall and Devon [38–42]. This can be evidence of a secondary effect on a railway line. Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 Climate 2016, 4, 65 15 of 21 15 of 20 15 of 20 Figure 16. 16. The The main main railway line Cornwall Devon demolished at Dawlish by storms, Figure railway line to to Cornwall andand Devon was was demolished at Dawlish by storms, which Figure 16. The main railway line to Cornwall and Devon was demolished at Dawlish by storms, which hit the UK in February 2014 (Courtesy: Network Rail) hit the UK in February 2014 (Courtesy: Network Rail). which hit the UK in February 2014 (Courtesy: Network Rail) A rise in the sea level will automatically affect the reading of the 100‐year flood level, which the A rise in the sea level will automatically affect the reading of the 100-year flood level, which A rise in the sea level will automatically affect the reading of the 100‐year flood level, which the Malaysian design standard normally adopts when designing a platform level bridge. There are the Malaysian design standard normally adopts when designinga aplatform platformlevel levelbridge. bridge. There There are Malaysian design standard normally adopts when designing are many consequences for railway infrastructure due to hot and dry weather and the obvious example many consequences for railway infrastructure due to hot and dry weather and the obvious example many consequences for railway infrastructure due to hot and dry weather and the obvious example is the risk of buckling. According to Network Rail, the definition of buckling is the extent of track is the risk of buckling. According to Network Rail, the definition of buckling is the extent of track is the risk of buckling. According to Network Rail, the definition of buckling is the extent of track deformation constituting a reportable buckle that would render the line unfit for the passage of deformation constituting buckle that would render the line unfitunfit for the passage of trains deformation constituting aa reportable reportable buckle that would render the line for the passage of trains at line speed and/or necessitates emergency remedial work to a running line under cover of at line speed and/or necessitates emergency remedial work to a running line under cover of either a trains at line speed and/or necessitates emergency remedial work to a running line under cover of either a temporary restriction of speed or closure of the line. Buckling is very treacherous as it could temporary restriction of speed or closure of the line. Buckling is very treacherous as it could cause either a temporary restriction of speed or closure of the line. Buckling is very treacherous as it could cause derailment of the train and end up in the disruption of railway operation services. Figure 17 derailment of the train and end up in the disruption of railway operation services. Figure 17 shows a cause derailment of the train and end up in the disruption of railway operation services. Figure 17 shows a Singapore bound train that derailed on 26 January 2013 due to rail buckling [11]. The Singapore bound train that derailed on derailed 26 January due to rail buckling wagons landed shows a Singapore bound train that on 2013 26 January 2013 due to [11]. rail The buckling [11]. The wagons landed on their sides and trapped the workers, injuring five passengers. The train service to on their sides and trapped the workers, injuring five passengers. The train service to the southern part wagons landed on their sides and trapped the workers, injuring five passengers. The train service to the southern part of Malaysia was disrupted for several days due to the difficulties rescuers had of Malaysia disrupted for several days due toseveral the difficulties rescuers reaching the remote the southern was part of Malaysia was disrupted for days due to the had difficulties rescuers had reaching the remote area where the incident happened. area where the incident happened. reaching the remote area where the incident happened. Figure 17. KTMB train derailed due to rail buckling and landed on its side, trapping the driver and Figure 17. KTMB train derailed due to rail buckling and landed on its side, trapping the driver and injuring passengers just Kempas, southern part Malaysia Figure 17.about KTMBfive train derailed due to before rail buckling andJohor landedstation, on its side, trapping theof driver and injuring about five passengers just before Kempas, Johor station, southern part of Malaysia (Courtesy: Malaysia Department of Public Works). injuring about five passengers just before Kempas, Johor station, southern part of Malaysia (Courtesy: (Courtesy: Malaysia Department of Public Works). Malaysia Department of Public Works). In the United Kingdom, the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) with involvement of In the United Kingdom, the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) with involvement of the Met Office has assessed the risk of heat on railway assets and railway operation. Similar work on the Met Office has assessed the risk of heat on railway assets and railway operation. Similar work on road infrastructure has also been carried out by the Scottish Road Network. The findings included: road infrastructure has also been carried out by the Scottish Road Network. The findings included: Climate 2016, 4, 65 16 of 21 In the United Kingdom, the Railway Safety and Standards Board (RSSB) with involvement of the Met Office has assessed the risk of heat on railway assets and railway operation. Similar work on road infrastructure has also been carried out by the Scottish Road Network. The findings included: • • • An increase in the number of days required to monitor track buckling and an increase in the frequency of speed restriction as a result. Reduction in productivity of the workers caused by heat stress. Passengers experiencing more heat stress. 6. Responses to the Threat of Climate Change Malaysia has conducted several studies on the climate change scenarios through the Malaysian Meteorological Department and Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and several universities. However, there were only a few studies on the threat of climate change with respect to infrastructure, particularly in the railway industry. Based on the expert interviews at KTMB and SPAD using face-to-face and e-mail communications, the risks and vulnerable assets can be identified for Malaysian railway networks. Collaborative research conducted by universities in Malaysia was focused more on climate change impact than on agriculture. It is thus important to first understand and be able to identify emerging risks to rail infrastructure at the design and construction stage. The insight into the risks and potential impact will enable better management of construction, better choice of materials, better planning for crisis and post-crisis management, and so on. Expert interviews of almost 30 experienced track and environmental engineers in Malaysia (from various organisations e.g., SPAD, KTMB, Department of Public Works, etc.) have been conducted. Face-to-face meetings and e-mail interviews had been kindly supported by governmental engineers and local consultants. Priority, likelihood and potential consequences of natural hazard threats were discussed and gathered based on a systems thinking approach. Based on critical risk analysis, Table 1 portrays possible risks and the vulnerability of the high speed rail assets in Malaysia. The ranking was based on the analysis and expert interviews from the Malaysian Department of Transport using previous experiences, soil and geological conditions, historical data of geo hazards and responses, and the data from SPAD on the track alignment and track structures. It is found that intense rainfall could trigger a number of emerging risks. In addition, because the neutral rail temperature has been designed at a higher degree in Asia, the risk ranking for rail buckling is not as high. Table 1. Risks and vulnerable assets of high speed rail infrastructure in Malaysia. Climate Impact Group Vulnerable Asset Infrastructure Group Ranking Geotechnical Intense rainfall Embankments Rock cuttings Earth cuttings 1 2 3 Drainage Culverts Civil 4 5 Storms Trains Signalling equipment Operation Signals 6 7 Flash flood Trains Signalling equipment Embankments Track circuits Operation Signals Geotechnical Electrical 8 9 10 11 Climate 2016, 4, 65 17 of 21 Table 1. Cont. Climate Impact Group Vulnerable Asset Infrastructure Group Ranking Signalling equipment Mechanical equipment Signals 12 13 Complex junction Overhead wire Track Electrical 14 15 Bush fire Electrification Electrical 16 Intense rainfall Trains Railway station Operation 17 18 Train function Rolling stock 19 Extreme heat Passenger comfort Train function Operation Rolling stock 20 21 Intense rainfall Complex junction Track 22 Storms Overhead Wiring Regulator Ballast washaway Electrical Track 23 24 Trains Stations/Platforms Operation 25 26 Tunnels Bridges and viaducts Civil 27 28 Intense rainfall Bridge scour Civil 29 Extreme heat Rail bunching and/or buckling on sharp curve or steep gradient Track 30 Extreme heat Sea level rise The Climate Change Act 2008 is an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom, who implemented a process by which statutory authorities, such as Network Rail, are required to comply with formal reporting requirements with respect to climate change adaptation [43,44]. According to Lane and Dora [41], in order to undertake the required reporting process, it is firstly necessary to identify the key activities that are required to develop a reliable method for the prediction of climate change impact as shown in Table 2. Table 2. Proposed planning process for climate change adaption for HSR Malaysia. No. Planning Component Purpose 1 Critical weather events Knowledge and understanding of impact on HSR Malaysia 2 Critical components of HSR Malaysia Knowledge and understanding of structural, systems and elemental response and vulnerability to critical weather events 3 Prediction of climate change impact Methodology for predicting the impact of specific critical weather events on components of the HSR Malaysia 4 Development of adaptation options Permits evaluation of different adaptation policies that are practical, cost-efficient and suitable to localised issues 5 Design standards Identification of changes to design standards to mitigate the impact of climate change 6 Management policy Identification of changes to management policy to mitigate the impacts of climate change Climate 2016, 4, 65 18 of 21 In this case, Malaysia HSR could adopt this planning and perhaps this policy can provide guidance for the other rail operators such as KTM and Rapid KL [45]. The assessment of the risks and consequences of the critical weather events with respect to HSR Malaysia and possible adaptation measures are thus shown in Table 3. Table 3. Risks and adaptation measures for high speed rail in Malaysia. Climate Impact Group Sea Level Rise Increased Rainfall Increased Rainfall Heat Risks Increased flooding generally Landslide Settlement Track buckling Safety Impact Medium High High High Performance Impact High High High High Likely Negative Impact from Climate Change High High Low High Long or Short Term Adaptation Measures Long Platform level need to cater to sea level rise and drainage design must cater to Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) plus climate change projection. Long Drainage design must cater to Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) plus climate change projection Long Need to monitor the ground movement and the relation with rainfall intensity especially at the karst area in Kuala Lumpur. Long Need to study rail design resilience to high temperature or provide watchmen, condition monitoring and appropriate inspection strategies. 7. Conclusions The global community recently agreed in COP2016 in Paris that climate change is real and unequivocal. However, Malaysia is still far behind in terms of assessing the risks of climate change, especially with respect to its existing railway systems. Our critical review has found that there was a lack of studies on the real effect of climate change with respect to the Malaysian railway operation and to the local railway infrastructures. In particular, the projected urban growth in Kuala Lumpur and Singapore has led to the necessity to establish improved transport links between the two cities, including road, aviation, ports and rail. Recently, a High Speed Rail (HSR) system has been jointly proposed by both the Malaysian and Singaporean Governments. However, the existing railway network in the region has been affected significantly by severe weather conditions such as rainfall, lightning, wind and very high temperatures. Now that Malaysia is planning to design and build the new HSR, mitigation and adaption measures pertaining to the risk of climate change are a must to ensure that we together can achieve and deliver: • • • • • A safe railway A highly reliable railway Increased capacity Value for money Predictable and preventable ethos The risk, safety and performance impact of each climate impact group on the operation of HSR Malaysia has thus been evaluated and highlighted in this paper. Based on critical risk analysis and expert interviews, the responses to the threat of climate change have been initially proposed for the Malaysia-Singapore HSR system. We found that the most critical risks involve intense rainfall, which Climate 2016, 4, 65 19 of 21 undermines embankments, rock cuttings, earth cuttings, and drainage and culvert systems in the railway network. This is due to the fact that the geotechnical and geological conditions in the rail network are highly sensitive to moisture content and pore water pressure. The insight based on a critical review of open literature and evaluation of expert interviews from this study will help design engineers, constructors, maintainers and asset owners to plan and prepare for operational readiness of high speed rail networks under an uncertain climate. On this ground, planning and design of HSR are required in order to appropriately respond and adapt to climate change. By adopting adaptation measures, Malaysia can mitigate both performance and safety impacts related to climate change over the long term. The scope of this work is focused on risk profiling of high speed rail development. Future work includes resilience-based design and planning of the system associated with localized climate change potential. Acknowledgments: The authors are grateful to the Malaysia Land Public Transport Commission (SPAD), Department of Public Works and Meteorological Department for the information, data, supporting figures and the financial support throughout this study. We also appreciate constructive comments and suggestions from all reviewers. The first author would like to thank the Malaysian Government for her postgraduate scholarship at the University of Birmingham. The second author wishes to thank the Australian Academy of Science and Japan Society for the Promotion of Sciences for his Invitation Research Fellowship (Long term) at the Railway Technical Research Institute and The University of Tokyo, Tokyo Japan. The authors gratefully acknowledged the financial support from the European Commission for H2020-MSCA-RISE Project No. 691135 “RISEN: Rail Infrastructure Systems Engineering Network,” which enables a global research network that tackles the considerable challenge in railway infrastructure resilience and advanced sensing under extreme events (www.risen2rail.eu). Author Contributions: Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin and Sakdirat Kaewunruen conceived and designed the data analyses; Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin performed the data gathering, filtering and correlation, and big data analyses; Sakdirat Kaewunruen and David Jaroszweski reviewed the data processing; Sazrul Leena Binti Saadin, Sakdirat Kaewunruen and David Jaroszweski wrote the paper. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. 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