Download Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent

Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent?
M.Sigmond and J. Fyfe
It has been suggested that the increase of Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent since the 1970s can be
explained by ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. In a previous study we have
shown, using single forcing time slice simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, that
the ozone hole does not lead to an increase but to a decrease in sea ice extent, suggesting that processes
not linked to stratospheric ozone depletion must be invoked to explain the observed increase in
Antarctic sea ice extent. Here we establish the robustness of this result between different models by the
analysis of transient simulations of climate models participating in Phase Three and Phase Five of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Comparison of the mean sea ice trends
in CMIP3 models with and without time varying stratospheric ozone suggests that ozone depletion is
associated with decreased sea ice extent, whereas ozone recovery acts to mitigate the future sea ice
decrease associated with increased greenhouse gases. Historical simulations of six CMIP5 models
designed to isolate the effect of time varying ozone concentrations all show decreased sea ice extent in
response to past ozone trends.
Re: letter for DACA-13 travel grant
Dear Sir/Madam,
I would like to apply for travel support to attend the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly
2013.
As a co-convener of Session A2.2 (Coupling processes with hydrosphere (ocean) and cryosphere) I
may not be able to attend DACA-13 without a travel grant due to recent and unforeseen reductions in
the travel budget in my project. I am a well-established climate researcher with 29 peer-reviewed
publications (11 of which are first-authored papers). I am working on a contract basis and can thus still
be regarded as an ‘early-career scientist’. A DACA-13 travel grant would allow me to attend the
meeting and to:
1) Co-convene Session A2.2
2) Present new work on the question of whether or not the Antarctic ozone hole has contributed to the
observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (abstract submitted to session A2.2)
3) Present work on seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice cover in a dynamical forecast system (which
has recently been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters pending minor revisions
and has been submitted to session A2.1)
I look forward to hearing your decision regarding the travel grant.
Sincerely yours,
Michael Sigmond
Publications:
PUBLICATIONS (PEER REVIEWED):
1. Sigmond, M., J. C. Fyfe, G.M. Flato, V.V. Kharin, W.J. Merryfield, Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic
sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
2. Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, V.V. Kharin, T.G. Shepherd, Enhanced seasonal forecast skill
following stratospheric sudden warmings, Nature Geosci., in press.
3. Sigmond, M., M. C. Reader, J.C. Fyfe, N. Gillett, 2011: Drivers of past and future Southern Ocean
change: stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12601,
doi:10.1029/2011GL047120.
4. Kang, S.M., L.M. Polvani, J.C. Fyfe and M. Sigmond, 2011: Impact of Polar Ozone Depletion on
Subtropical Precipitation, Science, 332, 951-954.
5. Simpson, I. R., T. G. Shepherd, and M. Sigmond, 2011: Dynamics of the lower stratospheric
circulation response to ENSO. J. Atmos. Sc., 110627103230088, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-05.1.
6. Butchart, N., A. J. Charlton-Perez, I. Cionni, S. C. Hardiman, P. H. Haynes, K. Krüger, P. Kushner,
P. A. Newman, S. M. Osprey, J. Perlwitz, F. Sassi, M. Sigmond, L. Wang, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S.
Bekki, A. Baumgartner, G. Bodeker, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, M. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, S.
Dhomse, H. Garny, P. Jöckel, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Marchand, M. Michou, O. Morgenstern, T.
Nakamura, S. Pawson, T. Peter, D. Plummer, J. Pyle, E. Rozanov, J. Scinocca, T. G. Shepherd, K.
Shibata, D. Smale, R. Stolarski, H. Teyssèdre, W. Tian, and Y. Yamashita, 2011: Multimodel climate
and variability of the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D05102, doi:10.1029/2010JD014995.
7. Forster, P., V. Fomichev, E. Rozanov, C. Cagnazzo, A. Jonsson, U. Langematz, B. Formin, M.
Iacono, B. Mayer, E. Mlawer, G. Myhre, R. Portmann, H. Akiyoshi, V. Falaleeva, N. Gillett, A.
Karpechko, J. Li, P. Lemennais, O. Morgenstern, S. Oberländer , M. Sigmond, and K. Shibata,
2011: Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry-climate models, J. Geophys.
Res., 116, D10302, doi:10.1029/2010JD015361.
8. McLandress, C., A. Jonsson, D.A. Plummer, M.C. Reader, J.F. Scinocca, T.G. Shepherd, M.
Sigmond, 2011: Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion: Part 2.
Southern Hemisphere Troposphere, J. Clim , 24, 1850-1868.
9. Sigmond, M. and J. C. Fyfe, 2010: Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice
extent? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18502, doi:10.1029/2010GL044301.
10. Sigmond, M., J. C. Fyfe, J. F. Scinocca, 2010: Does the ocean impact the atmospheric response to
stratospheric ozone depletion? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12706, doi:10.1029/2010GL043773.
11. Sigmond, M. and J. F. Scinocca, 2010: The influence of basic state on the Northern Hemisphere
circulation response to climate change, J. Clim., 23, 1434-1446.
12. Alexander, M. J., M. Geller, C. McLandress, S. Polavarapu, P. Preusse, F. Sassi, K. Sato, S.
Eckermann, M. Ern, A. Hertzog, Y. Kawatani, M. Pulido, T. Shaw, M. Sigmond, R.Vincent, S.
Watanabe, 2010: Review of Recent Developments on Gravity Wave Effects in Climate Models and
the Global Distribution of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1103–1124.
13. Butchart, N., A.J. Charlton-Perez, I. Cionni, S. C. Hardiman, K. Kruger, P. Kushner, P. Newman, S.
M. Osprey, J. Perlwitz, F. Sassi, M. Sigmond, L. Wang, 2010: Chapter 4: Stratospheric Dynamics,
SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W.
Waugh (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526.
14. Fomichev, V.I., P.M. Forster, C. Cagnazzo, A.I. Jonsson, U. Langematz, E. Rozanov, V. Falaleeva,
B. Fomin, N. Gillett, M. Iacono, A. Karpechko, J. Li, P. Lemennais, B. Mayer, E. Mlawer, O.
Morgenstern, G. Myhre, S. Oberländer, R. Portmann, M. Sigmond, 2010: Chapter 3: Radiation,
SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W.
Waugh (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526.
15. Mitovski, T., I. Folkins, K. von Salzen, M. Sigmond, 2010: Temperature, relative humidity, and
divergence to high rainfall events in the tropics: Observations and models, J. Clim, 23, 3613-3625,
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3436.1
16. Morgenstern, O, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, D. Cugnet,
M. Deushi, S. S. Dhomse, R. Garcia, A.Gettelman, N. P. Gillett, S. C. Hardiman, J. Jumelet, D.
Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Lott, M. Marchand, M. Michou, T. Nakamura, D. Olivié, S. Pawson,
T. Peter, D. Plummer, J. A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, D. Saint-Martin, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, M.
Sigmond, D. Smale, H. Teyssèdre, W. Tian, A. Voldoire, Y. Yamashita, 2010: Anthropogenic
forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M03,
doi:10.1029/2009JD013347.
17. Scinocca, J. F., M.C. Reader, D. Plummer, M. Sigmond, P. J. Kushner, T. G. Shepherd and A. R.
Ravishankara, 2009: Impact of Sudden Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on Stratospheric Polar Ozone Recovery,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24701, doi:10.1029/2009GL041239.
18. Shaw, T. A., M. Sigmond, J. F. Scinocca, and T. G. Shepherd, 2009: Sensitivity of simulated
climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization, J. Clim, 22, 27262742.
19. Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, and P. J. Kushner, 2008: Impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric
climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12706, doi:10.1029/2008GL033573.
20. Haklander, A. J., P. C. Siegmund, M. Sigmond, and H. M. Kelder, 2008: How does the northernwinter wave driving of the Brewer-Dobson circulation increase in an enhanced-CO2 climate
simulation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07702, doi:10.1029/2007GL033054.
21. Kodera, K., M. E. Hori, S. Yukimoto and M. Sigmond, 2008: Solar modulation of the northern
hemisphere winter circulation trends and its implications with increasing CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett.,
35, L03704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031958.
22. Sigmond, M., P. J. Kushner, and J. F. Scinocca, 2007: Discriminating robust and non-robust
atmospheric circulation responses to global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20121,
doi:10.1029/2006JD008270.
23. Butchart, N., A.A. Scaife, M. Bourqui, J. de Grandpré, S. H. E. Hare, J. Kettleborough, U.
Langematz, E. Manzini, F. Sassi, K. Shibata, D. Shindell and M. Sigmond, 2006: Simulations of
anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, Clim. Dyn., 27, 727–741,
doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4.
24. Sigmond, M., P. C. Siegmund, E. Manzini, and H. Kelder, 2004: A simulation of the separate
climate effects of middle atmospheric and tropospheric CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 17(12), 23522367.
25. Siegmund, P. C., M. Sigmond, and H. Kelder, 2004: The stratosphere as a puppeteer of European
winter climate. Eu. Phys. News, 35(3), 73-75.
26. Fortuin, J. P. F., H. M. Kelder, M. Sigmond, R. Oemraw, and C. R. Becker, 2003: Inertial instability
flow in the troposphere over Suriname during the South American Monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett.,
30, 1482, doi:10.1029/2002GL016754.
27. Sigmond, M., P. C. Siegmund, and H. Kelder, 2003: Analysis of the coupling between the
stratospheric meridional wind and the surface level zonal wind during 1979-93 Northern
Hemisphere extratropical winters. Clim. Dyn., 21, 211-219, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0328-2.
28. Meloen, J., P. C. Siegmund, and M. Sigmond, 2001: A Lagrangian computation of stratospheretroposphere exchange in a tropopause folding event in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere. Tellus,
53, 367-378.
29. Sigmond, M., J. Meloen, and P. C. Siegmund, 2000: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an
extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method. Ann. Geophys., 18, 573-582.
CV:
EDUCATION:
1999-2003:
Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric Physics)
University of Eindhoven (The Netherlands) at Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
(KNMI), The Netherlands
1995-1999:
Master of Science (Meteorology and Physical Oceanography)
University of Utrecht, The Netherlands
ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE:
2011 - present:
Research Associate
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada
Funded by: Environment Canada Grants and Contributions
2006 - 2011:
Research Associate
Jan. 2008-June 2011: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada
Oct. 2006-Dec. 2007: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria
Project: C-SPARC (Canadian Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate)
2004 - 2006:
Post-doctoral Scientist
Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada
Project: CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
2004:
Post-doctoral Scientist
Technical University of Eindhoven, The Netherlands, in association with the Royal Netherlands
Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
ORAL PRESENTATIONS (selected, all invited):
1. The ozone hole, the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice trends, Atmosphere-ocean science
colloquium, 16 February 2011, New York University, New York, USA.
2. Human-induced atmospheric circulation changes and their interactions with the ocean and sea ice,
23 November 2010, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
3. The ozone hole, the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice trends, WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to
Multi-Decadal Predictability of Polar Climate, 25-29 October 2010, Bergen, Norway.
4. Modelling the mid-latitude circulation response to climate change, Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences Departmental Seminar, 22 October 2009, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
5. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate change, MOCA Joint Assembly (IAMAS), 19-29
July 2009, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
6. The impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change, Dynamics Seminar, 23 October
2008, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
7. Discriminating between robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global
warming, 14th Conference on Middle Atmosphere, 20-24 August 2007, Portland, Oregon, USA.
.