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Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent? M.Sigmond and J. Fyfe It has been suggested that the increase of Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent since the 1970s can be explained by ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. In a previous study we have shown, using single forcing time slice simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model, that the ozone hole does not lead to an increase but to a decrease in sea ice extent, suggesting that processes not linked to stratospheric ozone depletion must be invoked to explain the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent. Here we establish the robustness of this result between different models by the analysis of transient simulations of climate models participating in Phase Three and Phase Five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Comparison of the mean sea ice trends in CMIP3 models with and without time varying stratospheric ozone suggests that ozone depletion is associated with decreased sea ice extent, whereas ozone recovery acts to mitigate the future sea ice decrease associated with increased greenhouse gases. Historical simulations of six CMIP5 models designed to isolate the effect of time varying ozone concentrations all show decreased sea ice extent in response to past ozone trends. Re: letter for DACA-13 travel grant Dear Sir/Madam, I would like to apply for travel support to attend the Davos Atmosphere and Cryosphere Assembly 2013. As a co-convener of Session A2.2 (Coupling processes with hydrosphere (ocean) and cryosphere) I may not be able to attend DACA-13 without a travel grant due to recent and unforeseen reductions in the travel budget in my project. I am a well-established climate researcher with 29 peer-reviewed publications (11 of which are first-authored papers). I am working on a contract basis and can thus still be regarded as an ‘early-career scientist’. A DACA-13 travel grant would allow me to attend the meeting and to: 1) Co-convene Session A2.2 2) Present new work on the question of whether or not the Antarctic ozone hole has contributed to the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (abstract submitted to session A2.2) 3) Present work on seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice cover in a dynamical forecast system (which has recently been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters pending minor revisions and has been submitted to session A2.1) I look forward to hearing your decision regarding the travel grant. Sincerely yours, Michael Sigmond Publications: PUBLICATIONS (PEER REVIEWED): 1. Sigmond, M., J. C. Fyfe, G.M. Flato, V.V. Kharin, W.J. Merryfield, Seasonal forecast skill of Arctic sea ice area in a dynamical forecast system, Geophys. Res. Lett., in press. 2. Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, V.V. Kharin, T.G. Shepherd, Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings, Nature Geosci., in press. 3. Sigmond, M., M. C. Reader, J.C. Fyfe, N. Gillett, 2011: Drivers of past and future Southern Ocean change: stratospheric ozone versus greenhouse gas impacts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L12601, doi:10.1029/2011GL047120. 4. Kang, S.M., L.M. Polvani, J.C. Fyfe and M. Sigmond, 2011: Impact of Polar Ozone Depletion on Subtropical Precipitation, Science, 332, 951-954. 5. Simpson, I. R., T. G. Shepherd, and M. Sigmond, 2011: Dynamics of the lower stratospheric circulation response to ENSO. J. Atmos. Sc., 110627103230088, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-05.1. 6. Butchart, N., A. J. Charlton-Perez, I. Cionni, S. C. Hardiman, P. H. Haynes, K. Krüger, P. Kushner, P. A. Newman, S. M. Osprey, J. Perlwitz, F. Sassi, M. Sigmond, L. Wang, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, S. Bekki, A. Baumgartner, G. Bodeker, P. Braesicke, C. Brühl, M. Chipperfield, M. Dameris, S. Dhomse, H. Garny, P. Jöckel, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Marchand, M. Michou, O. Morgenstern, T. Nakamura, S. Pawson, T. Peter, D. Plummer, J. Pyle, E. Rozanov, J. Scinocca, T. G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, D. Smale, R. Stolarski, H. Teyssèdre, W. Tian, and Y. Yamashita, 2011: Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D05102, doi:10.1029/2010JD014995. 7. Forster, P., V. Fomichev, E. Rozanov, C. Cagnazzo, A. Jonsson, U. Langematz, B. Formin, M. Iacono, B. Mayer, E. Mlawer, G. Myhre, R. Portmann, H. Akiyoshi, V. Falaleeva, N. Gillett, A. Karpechko, J. Li, P. Lemennais, O. Morgenstern, S. Oberländer , M. Sigmond, and K. Shibata, 2011: Evaluation of radiation scheme performance within chemistry-climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D10302, doi:10.1029/2010JD015361. 8. McLandress, C., A. Jonsson, D.A. Plummer, M.C. Reader, J.F. Scinocca, T.G. Shepherd, M. Sigmond, 2011: Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion: Part 2. Southern Hemisphere Troposphere, J. Clim , 24, 1850-1868. 9. Sigmond, M. and J. C. Fyfe, 2010: Has the ozone hole contributed to increased Antarctic sea ice extent? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L18502, doi:10.1029/2010GL044301. 10. Sigmond, M., J. C. Fyfe, J. F. Scinocca, 2010: Does the ocean impact the atmospheric response to stratospheric ozone depletion? Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L12706, doi:10.1029/2010GL043773. 11. Sigmond, M. and J. F. Scinocca, 2010: The influence of basic state on the Northern Hemisphere circulation response to climate change, J. Clim., 23, 1434-1446. 12. Alexander, M. J., M. Geller, C. McLandress, S. Polavarapu, P. Preusse, F. Sassi, K. Sato, S. Eckermann, M. Ern, A. Hertzog, Y. Kawatani, M. Pulido, T. Shaw, M. Sigmond, R.Vincent, S. Watanabe, 2010: Review of Recent Developments on Gravity Wave Effects in Climate Models and the Global Distribution of Gravity Wave Momentum Flux, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 1103–1124. 13. Butchart, N., A.J. Charlton-Perez, I. Cionni, S. C. Hardiman, K. Kruger, P. Kushner, P. Newman, S. M. Osprey, J. Perlwitz, F. Sassi, M. Sigmond, L. Wang, 2010: Chapter 4: Stratospheric Dynamics, SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526. 14. Fomichev, V.I., P.M. Forster, C. Cagnazzo, A.I. Jonsson, U. Langematz, E. Rozanov, V. Falaleeva, B. Fomin, N. Gillett, M. Iacono, A. Karpechko, J. Li, P. Lemennais, B. Mayer, E. Mlawer, O. Morgenstern, G. Myhre, S. Oberländer, R. Portmann, M. Sigmond, 2010: Chapter 3: Radiation, SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, V. Eyring, T. G. Shepherd, D. W. Waugh (Eds.), SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-No. 1526. 15. Mitovski, T., I. Folkins, K. von Salzen, M. Sigmond, 2010: Temperature, relative humidity, and divergence to high rainfall events in the tropics: Observations and models, J. Clim, 23, 3613-3625, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3436.1 16. Morgenstern, O, H. Akiyoshi, S. Bekki, P. Braesicke, N. Butchart, M. P. Chipperfield, D. Cugnet, M. Deushi, S. S. Dhomse, R. Garcia, A.Gettelman, N. P. Gillett, S. C. Hardiman, J. Jumelet, D. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, F. Lott, M. Marchand, M. Michou, T. Nakamura, D. Olivié, S. Pawson, T. Peter, D. Plummer, J. A. Pyle, E. Rozanov, D. Saint-Martin, J. F. Scinocca, K. Shibata, M. Sigmond, D. Smale, H. Teyssèdre, W. Tian, A. Voldoire, Y. Yamashita, 2010: Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-2 models, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00M03, doi:10.1029/2009JD013347. 17. Scinocca, J. F., M.C. Reader, D. Plummer, M. Sigmond, P. J. Kushner, T. G. Shepherd and A. R. Ravishankara, 2009: Impact of Sudden Arctic Sea-Ice Loss on Stratospheric Polar Ozone Recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L24701, doi:10.1029/2009GL041239. 18. Shaw, T. A., M. Sigmond, J. F. Scinocca, and T. G. Shepherd, 2009: Sensitivity of simulated climate to conservation of momentum in gravity wave drag parameterization, J. Clim, 22, 27262742. 19. Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, and P. J. Kushner, 2008: Impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12706, doi:10.1029/2008GL033573. 20. Haklander, A. J., P. C. Siegmund, M. Sigmond, and H. M. Kelder, 2008: How does the northernwinter wave driving of the Brewer-Dobson circulation increase in an enhanced-CO2 climate simulation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07702, doi:10.1029/2007GL033054. 21. Kodera, K., M. E. Hori, S. Yukimoto and M. Sigmond, 2008: Solar modulation of the northern hemisphere winter circulation trends and its implications with increasing CO2, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L03704, doi:10.1029/2007GL031958. 22. Sigmond, M., P. J. Kushner, and J. F. Scinocca, 2007: Discriminating robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D20121, doi:10.1029/2006JD008270. 23. Butchart, N., A.A. Scaife, M. Bourqui, J. de Grandpré, S. H. E. Hare, J. Kettleborough, U. Langematz, E. Manzini, F. Sassi, K. Shibata, D. Shindell and M. Sigmond, 2006: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, Clim. Dyn., 27, 727–741, doi: 10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4. 24. Sigmond, M., P. C. Siegmund, E. Manzini, and H. Kelder, 2004: A simulation of the separate climate effects of middle atmospheric and tropospheric CO2 doubling. J. Climate, 17(12), 23522367. 25. Siegmund, P. C., M. Sigmond, and H. Kelder, 2004: The stratosphere as a puppeteer of European winter climate. Eu. Phys. News, 35(3), 73-75. 26. Fortuin, J. P. F., H. M. Kelder, M. Sigmond, R. Oemraw, and C. R. Becker, 2003: Inertial instability flow in the troposphere over Suriname during the South American Monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1482, doi:10.1029/2002GL016754. 27. Sigmond, M., P. C. Siegmund, and H. Kelder, 2003: Analysis of the coupling between the stratospheric meridional wind and the surface level zonal wind during 1979-93 Northern Hemisphere extratropical winters. Clim. Dyn., 21, 211-219, doi: 10.1007/s00382-003-0328-2. 28. Meloen, J., P. C. Siegmund, and M. Sigmond, 2001: A Lagrangian computation of stratospheretroposphere exchange in a tropopause folding event in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere. Tellus, 53, 367-378. 29. Sigmond, M., J. Meloen, and P. C. Siegmund, 2000: Stratosphere-troposphere exchange in an extratropical cyclone, calculated with a Lagrangian method. Ann. Geophys., 18, 573-582. CV: EDUCATION: 1999-2003: Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric Physics) University of Eindhoven (The Netherlands) at Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), The Netherlands 1995-1999: Master of Science (Meteorology and Physical Oceanography) University of Utrecht, The Netherlands ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE: 2011 - present: Research Associate Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada Funded by: Environment Canada Grants and Contributions 2006 - 2011: Research Associate Jan. 2008-June 2011: Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada Oct. 2006-Dec. 2007: School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria Project: C-SPARC (Canadian Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) 2004 - 2006: Post-doctoral Scientist Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Canada Project: CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) 2004: Post-doctoral Scientist Technical University of Eindhoven, The Netherlands, in association with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) ORAL PRESENTATIONS (selected, all invited): 1. The ozone hole, the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice trends, Atmosphere-ocean science colloquium, 16 February 2011, New York University, New York, USA. 2. Human-induced atmospheric circulation changes and their interactions with the ocean and sea ice, 23 November 2010, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. 3. The ozone hole, the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice trends, WCRP Workshop on Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Predictability of Polar Climate, 25-29 October 2010, Bergen, Norway. 4. Modelling the mid-latitude circulation response to climate change, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Departmental Seminar, 22 October 2009, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 5. Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate change, MOCA Joint Assembly (IAMAS), 19-29 July 2009, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. 6. The impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change, Dynamics Seminar, 23 October 2008, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA. 7. Discriminating between robust and non-robust atmospheric circulation responses to global warming, 14th Conference on Middle Atmosphere, 20-24 August 2007, Portland, Oregon, USA. .