Download Theological reflections - Developing a Christian Mind

Climate Change & the Developing World
Oxford University
18 March 2017
Dr Brett Parris
Adjunct Research Fellow,
Monash Sustainable Development Institute
MPhil Candidate,
Faculty of Oriental Studies
University of Oxford
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-yearon-record-globally
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/18/2016-hottest-year-ever-recordedand-scientists-say-human-activity-to-blame
Source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Context: We’ve gone from this …
Source: Goodland, R. and Daly, H.,
(1993) "Why Northern Income Growth
is Not the Solution to Southern
Poverty", Ecological Economics, Vol. 8,
No. 2, October, pp. 85-101.
…. to this
Fundamental political
economy problem:
Markets are socially &
legally constructed. By
themselves they do not
recognise natural limits
- especially when there
is a lag in the system
between cause and
effect.
Source: Goodland, R. and Daly, H.,
(1993) "Why Northern Income
Growth is Not the Solution to
Southern Poverty", Ecological
Economics, Vol. 8, No. 2, October,
pp. 85-101.
Lags & thresholds
Source: Garnaut, R., (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, xlv + 616 pp.
Tipping Points in the Climate System
Schellenhuber 2011 after
Lenton et al. (2008)
"Tipping Elements in the
Earth's Climate System",
Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, Vol.
105, No. 6, 12 February, pp.
1786-1793.
No historical precedent for 100 year projection
(Composite from various studies)
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Surface Temperature & Rainfall Projections
Source: IPCC (2013) Fifth
Assessment Report, Summary for
Policymakers, 27 September 2013,
http://www.ipcc.ch/
A Nonlinear System:
Sea-levels vs. CO2
concentrations
35 m yrs ago – no
ice
32 m yrs ago – ice
caps start to form
2005 (379 ppm)
~ 1800
21,000 yrs ago – ice age
Alley, R.B., et al. (2005) "Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes",
Science, Vol. 310, No. 5747, 21 October, pp. 456–460.
Nonlinearity: Temperatures & Crop Yields
“We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton
but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. ... Holding current growing regions fixed,
area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% before the end of the century under the
slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) .
Source: Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M.J., (2009) "Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields Under Climate Change", Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 37, 15 September, pp. 15594-15598.
Food-related riots
(and death tolls)
Source:
http://necsi.edu/research/
social/foodprices/briefing/
Food Security Outlook
Source: Battisti, D.S. and Naylor,
R.L., (2009) "Historical Warnings of
Future Food Insecurity with
Unprecedented Seasonal Heat",
Science, Vol. 323, No. 5911, 9
January, pp. 240-244. (Slide from
Schellnhuber, (2011) Strange
Encounters behind the 2°C Firewall:
The Global Picture)
Impacts
Impacts
Adaptation in Bangladesh
Manikganj District, Harirampur Upazila
Ramakrishnapur village
Forced migration
In 2015, alone, climate-related disasters displaced 14.7
million people. Unless governments take strong preventive
action and invest in adaptation, climate change-related
phenomena could push the total number of permanently
displaced people as high as 250 million people, between
now and 2050.
http://careclimatechange.org/publications/fleeing-climatechange-impacts-migration-displacement/
Nick Stern’s Change of Heart
“We underestimated the risks
… we underestimated the
damage associated with
temperature increases … and
we underestimated the
probabilities of temperature
increases. … The damage risks
are bigger than I would have
argued. Things like the damage
associated with a 5 degree
temperature increase are
enormous.”
Sir Nicholas Stern, 16 April 2008, The Financial
Times, London.
The greatest wholesale violation of child rights in human history?
Projections for 5ºC
• Chronic droughts in mid latitudes & semi-arid low latitudes
• Hundreds of millions with insufficient, polluted or salty water
• Significant numbers of species extinctions around the world
• Terrestrial biosphere a net source of carbon (warming self-reinforcing)
• Cereal productivity further decreasing at low latitudes
• Greatly increased damage from floods and storms
• Hundreds of millions experiencing coastal flooding each year
• Dramatically increased mortality from malnutrition, diarrhea, tropical diseases, heat waves, floods &
droughts
• Likely to trigger irreversible melting of Greenland ice sheet (+ 7 m sea level rise), West Antarctic ice sheet
(+ 5 m SLR) & collapse of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (Gulf Stream etc)
Ross Garnaut’s warning
“On a balance of probabilities,
the failure of our generation
on climate change mitigation
would lead to consequences
that would haunt humanity
until the end of time.”
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Hubris
“We have spent our
entire existence adapting.
We'll adapt ... It’s an
engineering problem and
there will be an
engineering solution.”
Rex Tillerson, CEO Exxon-Mobil.
Now US Secretary of State
Source: Associated Press (2012) “Climate change fears overblown, says ExxonMobil boss” The
Guardian, London, 28 June 2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/28/exxonmobil-climate-change-rex-tillerson
A taxonomy of denial

Outright denial of the scientific link between greenhouse gases and climate change
• Rampant in conservative politics and right wing think tanks and blogosphere,
Murdoch press
• Obvious. Frustrating. Remarkably persistent.

‘False friends’ – agree humans causing climate change, but no real understanding of the
scale or urgency of the threat or notion of ‘window of opportunity’
• Most business, church, union leaders, politicians, media
• Much harder to deal with – framing of ‘sensible’ vs ‘extreme’

Enviro-NGO resource allocation & strategic confusion
• Resource allocations of money, staff & time reveals real priorities
• Entrenched structures, interests & legacy issues
• Lack of strategic vision (Greens: broad left agenda on multiple fronts now?)
• Stamina for the long haul? (c.f. Wilberforce, Martin Luther King, Mandela, Gandhi)
• Psychological and pastoral care of staff (Eco-panic)
• Hardest of all to deal with.
‘Sensible’ vs. ‘Radical’: The Overton Window
 Acceptable framing of debate in public discourse
 Can’t say whether a response is ‘sensible’ & ‘measured’ as opposed to ‘radical’ &
‘reckless’ without considering scale of the threat.
• eg. response to invasion fleet? Is failure to mobilise ‘measured & responsible’
or reckless?
 Who are the ‘extremists’?
• Those arguing we should consider making a fraction of the effort of the WWII
generation to avert an irreversible global catastrophe? OR
• Those content to flip a coin to see how we go with more than 2°C warming?
(450 ppm CO2-eq path gives about 50% chance of staying under 2°C) OR
• Those happy to do nothing and chance the luck of their grandchildren with
whatever the opposite of an ice-age looks like, with 4 … 7°C?
A poor understanding of the science means the Overton window is in the wrong place for the responses we need.
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
The Economics of Climate Change?
Does the base case include the
economic consequences of letting
climate change run its course, or is
it a fantasy?
Source: Allen Consulting,
(2006) "Deep Cuts in
Greenhouse Gas Emissions:
Economic, Social and
Environmental Impacts for
Australia", Melbourne &
Sydney, The Allen Consulting
Group, March, p. 33.
[www.allenconsult.com.au]
Damage estimates
are very
conservative
http://personal.lse.ac.uk/sternn/128NHS.pdf
The Social Cost of Carbon: U.S. Government
Source: United States
Government, (2013) "Technical
Support Document: Technical
Update of the Social Cost of
Carbon for Regulatory Impact
Analysis - Under Executive
Order 12866", Washington
DC, Interagency Working
Group on Social Cost of
Carbon, May, 21 pp.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/si
tes/default/files/omb/inforeg/
social_cost_of_carbon_for_ria
_2013_update.pdf
Global Damage from Australian Coal
Australia’s black coal exports in FY2013-14 will be 372 million tonnes (Mt).
Combustion will release around 889 Mt CO2-e. (Germany’s CO2 emissions in 2011
were just 807 Mt). Based on conservative US Government estimates, our current
coal exports are causing between A$12 billion and A$110 billion of damage
globally each year (in 2014 dollars).
By 2018-19 BREE predicts our coal exports will rise to 438 Mt, producing around
1045 Mt CO2-e, which will cause between A$15 and A$153 billion in damage (in
2014 dollars) for expected revenues of only $49 billion (profits much less).
This damage is not included in the coal export price.
Sources: http://theconversation.com/expanding-coal-exports-is-bad-news-for-australia-and-the-world-17937
BREE, (2014) "Resources and Energy Quarterly: March Quarter 2014", Canberra, Australian Government: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, March,
iv + 206 pp. http://www.bree.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly, pp. 48 & 70.
United States Government, (2013) "Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - Under
Executive Order 12866", Washington DC, Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, May, 21 pp; p. 18.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/social_cost_of_carbon_for_ria_2013_update.pdf
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Not just a rich country problem …
Source: Wheeler, D. and Ummel, K., (2007) "Another
Inconvenient Truth: A Carbon-Intensive South Faces
Environmental Disaster, No Matter What the North
Does", Working Paper No. 134, Washington DC, Center
for Global Development, 18 pp.
http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/14947/
den Elzen, et. al (2013) "Countries’ Contributions to Climate Change: Effect of Accounting for All Greenhouse Gases, Recent Trends, Basic Needs and
Technological Progress", Climatic Change, Vol. 121, No. 2, November, pp. 397-412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6
den Elzen, et. al (2013) "Countries’ Contributions to Climate Change: Effect of Accounting for All Greenhouse Gases, Recent Trends, Basic Needs and
Technological Progress", Climatic Change, Vol. 121, No. 2, November, pp. 397-412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6
Economic &
environmental
insanity
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015
/may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-aminute-in-subsidies-says-imf
China is
massively
investing in
renewables
https://www.theguardian.com/business/
2017/jan/05/china-invest-renewablefuel-2020-energy
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Policies
• Only by understanding the science, including the scale & urgency of the threat,
can we do meaningful social science or theological reflection on climate change.
• A price on carbon is necessary but not sufficient – externalities must be
internalised as far as possible.
• Boundaries must be set to the physical size of the economy – i.e. strict emissions
reductions.
• ‘Loss and damage’ – greatly increased assistance for developing countries
• Compassionate refugee policies, anticipating large increases in migration flows in
coming decades.
• A well-informed public debate, political and spiritual leadership on the degree of
mobilisation necessary to avert disaster.
Outline
• Context
• Impacts & projections
• Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion
• Economics
• Responsibility
• Policies
• Theological reflections
Theological reflections
 Fundamentalist distrust of science over 150 years after Darwin has provided fertile
ground for climate change deniers. (An object lesson for a specifically Christian approach to
science? What about social science?)
 Disjunction between official church positions and conservative Christians who bought into
climate denial and voted for repeal of the carbon price, Tories, Trump etc.
 Failure of the church and Christian agencies to speak out strongly on the moral and
ethical case for strong emissions reduction measures and increases in aid for poor countries.
 Responsibility to address warped eschatology
 Functional denial – failure to grasp the scale and urgency of the threat, and its implication
for the whole of creation.
Sacred Activism
http://www.miningaustralia.
com.au/news/anglicanminister-arrested-at-maulescreek-mine-si
http://www.ecowatch.com/sacred-burial-grounds-dakotaaccess-pipeline-1998932006.html