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Climate Change & the Developing World Oxford University 18 March 2017 Dr Brett Parris Adjunct Research Fellow, Monash Sustainable Development Institute MPhil Candidate, Faculty of Oriental Studies University of Oxford Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-2016-warmest-yearon-record-globally https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/18/2016-hottest-year-ever-recordedand-scientists-say-human-activity-to-blame Source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Context: We’ve gone from this … Source: Goodland, R. and Daly, H., (1993) "Why Northern Income Growth is Not the Solution to Southern Poverty", Ecological Economics, Vol. 8, No. 2, October, pp. 85-101. …. to this Fundamental political economy problem: Markets are socially & legally constructed. By themselves they do not recognise natural limits - especially when there is a lag in the system between cause and effect. Source: Goodland, R. and Daly, H., (1993) "Why Northern Income Growth is Not the Solution to Southern Poverty", Ecological Economics, Vol. 8, No. 2, October, pp. 85-101. Lags & thresholds Source: Garnaut, R., (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, xlv + 616 pp. Tipping Points in the Climate System Schellenhuber 2011 after Lenton et al. (2008) "Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, No. 6, 12 February, pp. 1786-1793. No historical precedent for 100 year projection (Composite from various studies) Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:All_palaeotemps.png Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Surface Temperature & Rainfall Projections Source: IPCC (2013) Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, 27 September 2013, http://www.ipcc.ch/ A Nonlinear System: Sea-levels vs. CO2 concentrations 35 m yrs ago – no ice 32 m yrs ago – ice caps start to form 2005 (379 ppm) ~ 1800 21,000 yrs ago – ice age Alley, R.B., et al. (2005) "Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level Changes", Science, Vol. 310, No. 5747, 21 October, pp. 456–460. Nonlinearity: Temperatures & Crop Yields “We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that temperatures above these thresholds are very harmful. ... Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30–46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) . Source: Schlenker, W. and Roberts, M.J., (2009) "Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields Under Climate Change", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 37, 15 September, pp. 15594-15598. Food-related riots (and death tolls) Source: http://necsi.edu/research/ social/foodprices/briefing/ Food Security Outlook Source: Battisti, D.S. and Naylor, R.L., (2009) "Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat", Science, Vol. 323, No. 5911, 9 January, pp. 240-244. (Slide from Schellnhuber, (2011) Strange Encounters behind the 2°C Firewall: The Global Picture) Impacts Impacts Adaptation in Bangladesh Manikganj District, Harirampur Upazila Ramakrishnapur village Forced migration In 2015, alone, climate-related disasters displaced 14.7 million people. Unless governments take strong preventive action and invest in adaptation, climate change-related phenomena could push the total number of permanently displaced people as high as 250 million people, between now and 2050. http://careclimatechange.org/publications/fleeing-climatechange-impacts-migration-displacement/ Nick Stern’s Change of Heart “We underestimated the risks … we underestimated the damage associated with temperature increases … and we underestimated the probabilities of temperature increases. … The damage risks are bigger than I would have argued. Things like the damage associated with a 5 degree temperature increase are enormous.” Sir Nicholas Stern, 16 April 2008, The Financial Times, London. The greatest wholesale violation of child rights in human history? Projections for 5ºC • Chronic droughts in mid latitudes & semi-arid low latitudes • Hundreds of millions with insufficient, polluted or salty water • Significant numbers of species extinctions around the world • Terrestrial biosphere a net source of carbon (warming self-reinforcing) • Cereal productivity further decreasing at low latitudes • Greatly increased damage from floods and storms • Hundreds of millions experiencing coastal flooding each year • Dramatically increased mortality from malnutrition, diarrhea, tropical diseases, heat waves, floods & droughts • Likely to trigger irreversible melting of Greenland ice sheet (+ 7 m sea level rise), West Antarctic ice sheet (+ 5 m SLR) & collapse of Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (Gulf Stream etc) Ross Garnaut’s warning “On a balance of probabilities, the failure of our generation on climate change mitigation would lead to consequences that would haunt humanity until the end of time.” Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Hubris “We have spent our entire existence adapting. We'll adapt ... It’s an engineering problem and there will be an engineering solution.” Rex Tillerson, CEO Exxon-Mobil. Now US Secretary of State Source: Associated Press (2012) “Climate change fears overblown, says ExxonMobil boss” The Guardian, London, 28 June 2012 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jun/28/exxonmobil-climate-change-rex-tillerson A taxonomy of denial Outright denial of the scientific link between greenhouse gases and climate change • Rampant in conservative politics and right wing think tanks and blogosphere, Murdoch press • Obvious. Frustrating. Remarkably persistent. ‘False friends’ – agree humans causing climate change, but no real understanding of the scale or urgency of the threat or notion of ‘window of opportunity’ • Most business, church, union leaders, politicians, media • Much harder to deal with – framing of ‘sensible’ vs ‘extreme’ Enviro-NGO resource allocation & strategic confusion • Resource allocations of money, staff & time reveals real priorities • Entrenched structures, interests & legacy issues • Lack of strategic vision (Greens: broad left agenda on multiple fronts now?) • Stamina for the long haul? (c.f. Wilberforce, Martin Luther King, Mandela, Gandhi) • Psychological and pastoral care of staff (Eco-panic) • Hardest of all to deal with. ‘Sensible’ vs. ‘Radical’: The Overton Window Acceptable framing of debate in public discourse Can’t say whether a response is ‘sensible’ & ‘measured’ as opposed to ‘radical’ & ‘reckless’ without considering scale of the threat. • eg. response to invasion fleet? Is failure to mobilise ‘measured & responsible’ or reckless? Who are the ‘extremists’? • Those arguing we should consider making a fraction of the effort of the WWII generation to avert an irreversible global catastrophe? OR • Those content to flip a coin to see how we go with more than 2°C warming? (450 ppm CO2-eq path gives about 50% chance of staying under 2°C) OR • Those happy to do nothing and chance the luck of their grandchildren with whatever the opposite of an ice-age looks like, with 4 … 7°C? A poor understanding of the science means the Overton window is in the wrong place for the responses we need. Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections The Economics of Climate Change? Does the base case include the economic consequences of letting climate change run its course, or is it a fantasy? Source: Allen Consulting, (2006) "Deep Cuts in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts for Australia", Melbourne & Sydney, The Allen Consulting Group, March, p. 33. [www.allenconsult.com.au] Damage estimates are very conservative http://personal.lse.ac.uk/sternn/128NHS.pdf The Social Cost of Carbon: U.S. Government Source: United States Government, (2013) "Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - Under Executive Order 12866", Washington DC, Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, May, 21 pp. http://www.whitehouse.gov/si tes/default/files/omb/inforeg/ social_cost_of_carbon_for_ria _2013_update.pdf Global Damage from Australian Coal Australia’s black coal exports in FY2013-14 will be 372 million tonnes (Mt). Combustion will release around 889 Mt CO2-e. (Germany’s CO2 emissions in 2011 were just 807 Mt). Based on conservative US Government estimates, our current coal exports are causing between A$12 billion and A$110 billion of damage globally each year (in 2014 dollars). By 2018-19 BREE predicts our coal exports will rise to 438 Mt, producing around 1045 Mt CO2-e, which will cause between A$15 and A$153 billion in damage (in 2014 dollars) for expected revenues of only $49 billion (profits much less). This damage is not included in the coal export price. Sources: http://theconversation.com/expanding-coal-exports-is-bad-news-for-australia-and-the-world-17937 BREE, (2014) "Resources and Energy Quarterly: March Quarter 2014", Canberra, Australian Government: Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, March, iv + 206 pp. http://www.bree.gov.au/publications/resources-and-energy-quarterly, pp. 48 & 70. United States Government, (2013) "Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis - Under Executive Order 12866", Washington DC, Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, May, 21 pp; p. 18. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/social_cost_of_carbon_for_ria_2013_update.pdf Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Not just a rich country problem … Source: Wheeler, D. and Ummel, K., (2007) "Another Inconvenient Truth: A Carbon-Intensive South Faces Environmental Disaster, No Matter What the North Does", Working Paper No. 134, Washington DC, Center for Global Development, 18 pp. http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/14947/ den Elzen, et. al (2013) "Countries’ Contributions to Climate Change: Effect of Accounting for All Greenhouse Gases, Recent Trends, Basic Needs and Technological Progress", Climatic Change, Vol. 121, No. 2, November, pp. 397-412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6 den Elzen, et. al (2013) "Countries’ Contributions to Climate Change: Effect of Accounting for All Greenhouse Gases, Recent Trends, Basic Needs and Technological Progress", Climatic Change, Vol. 121, No. 2, November, pp. 397-412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0865-6 Economic & environmental insanity https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015 /may/18/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-10m-aminute-in-subsidies-says-imf China is massively investing in renewables https://www.theguardian.com/business/ 2017/jan/05/china-invest-renewablefuel-2020-energy Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Policies • Only by understanding the science, including the scale & urgency of the threat, can we do meaningful social science or theological reflection on climate change. • A price on carbon is necessary but not sufficient – externalities must be internalised as far as possible. • Boundaries must be set to the physical size of the economy – i.e. strict emissions reductions. • ‘Loss and damage’ – greatly increased assistance for developing countries • Compassionate refugee policies, anticipating large increases in migration flows in coming decades. • A well-informed public debate, political and spiritual leadership on the degree of mobilisation necessary to avert disaster. Outline • Context • Impacts & projections • Hubris, denial & ‘sensible’ discussion • Economics • Responsibility • Policies • Theological reflections Theological reflections Fundamentalist distrust of science over 150 years after Darwin has provided fertile ground for climate change deniers. (An object lesson for a specifically Christian approach to science? What about social science?) Disjunction between official church positions and conservative Christians who bought into climate denial and voted for repeal of the carbon price, Tories, Trump etc. Failure of the church and Christian agencies to speak out strongly on the moral and ethical case for strong emissions reduction measures and increases in aid for poor countries. Responsibility to address warped eschatology Functional denial – failure to grasp the scale and urgency of the threat, and its implication for the whole of creation. Sacred Activism http://www.miningaustralia. com.au/news/anglicanminister-arrested-at-maulescreek-mine-si http://www.ecowatch.com/sacred-burial-grounds-dakotaaccess-pipeline-1998932006.html