Download Developing an Adaptive Measure to Climate Change for PEI

Climate Change Adaptation and
Infrastructure 2016 Conference
Orooba Mohammed P.Eng
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The Urge to Develop an Adaptive Measure or Policy
 Acknowledging the impact of climate
change and the need for a proper
adaptive measure.
 Historical data and future climate
 Climate Risk
 Jurisdictions responsibilities to develop
a policy and examine standards
 Engineers Canada-Principles of Climate
Change Adaptation for Engineers
 Safety, cost , and legal liability.
 Many inquiries from municipalities.
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Storms Damage
Capital Projects
 7 Structure Replacements
 Multiple structures damaged
 Estimated Cost of $5 million
Highway Maintenance Division
 Multiple Culvert failures
 Road/Shoulder washouts
 Confederation Trail Damage
 estimated cost of repair $9 million
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Actions Taken So Far
1. Collaboration with the Provincial Climate Change
Section.
2. Review available studies and resources on climate
change, such as:
 Impact of Climate Change on Stormwater Management
For The Town of Stratford-CBCL;
 The Regional Climate Adaptation Study for Hillsborough
River Basin – AMEC;
 University of Western-Ontario IDF CC Tool .
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1. Review approaches from other provinces
 New Brunswick (City of Moncton, Town of Riverview):
20% allowance in the historical data of 1 in 100 year storm-major
stormwater system.
 City of Fredericton: MRAT to evaluate the City’s sewer and
storm infrastructure using historical and future climate data.
 City of Ottawa: Increase the rainfall intensity in the design
curves by 20%.
 City of London: UWO study showed an increase in rainfall in
the range of 10.7% to 34.9% with an average value of 21%, the
Council voted to increase IDF curves by 21%.
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Available Studies and Resources
1. Town of Stratford Report on Climate
Change -2012
 Global Climate Models (CGCM2 and
hadCM3).
 The Study provides 24 hours Rainfall data for
three time frames: 2020, 2050, and 2080.
Issues/Problems :
 Lack of IDF and precipitation data for short
storm duration less than 24 hours.
 Large variability in the projected data
between the two Models.
 Old climate scenarios.
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2. The Regional Climate Adaptation Study for
Hillsborough River Basin which was conducted by
AMEC.
 A single GCM was used to generate many projections, each
of which differ by SRES (Special Report on Emission
Scenarios-2000) used to force GCM to estimate future GHG
emissions at that time.
 The Study provides Intensity-Duration Frequency data for
three time frames:
2025
2055
2085
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3. University of Western-Ontario Tool
Computerized Tool for the Development of Intensity-DurationFrequency Curves under Climate Change:
www.idf-cc-uwo.ca
Partners:
Canadian Water Network
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Insurance Bureau of Canada
 22 GCM were included in this tool
 The amount of greenhouse gas emissions is the key variable for
generating future scenarios.
 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) future climate
scenarios associated with Representative Concentration Pathways
(RCPs), which are based on time-dependent projections of
atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.
 There are four RCP scenarios: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.5
Future Climate
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Future Climate
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Projected Data Comparison between Town of Stratford Report and
UWO-IDF CC Tool
200
24 hr-Precipitation (mm)
2020
180
160
140
120
Historical Data
100
CGCM2
80
HadCM3
60
63%-84%
8%-17%
40
20
0
10 Years
180
25 Years
50 Years
100 Years
2050
24 hr-Precipitation (mm)
160
140
Historical Data
120
CGCM2
100
HadCM3
80
WU-2.6
60
WU-4.5
40
WU-8.50
45%-56%
26%-29%
29%- 48%
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0
10 Years
25 Years
50 Years
100 Years
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Projected Data Comparison Between AMEC Report and UWO-IDF CC Tool
Intensity
IDF - 10 Year Storm Event-2055
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0.01
0.1
1
10
Time
Historical Data
AMEC-IDF
3%-11%
WU-2.6 Scenario-IDF
100
Hundreds
WU-4.50 Scenario-IDF
WU-8.50 Scenario-IDF
15%-27%
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IDF - 10 Year Storm Event-2085
160
Intensity (mm/Hr)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0.01
0.1
1
10
Hundreds
Time (Hours)
Historical Data
AMEC-IDF
5%-20%
WU-2.6 Scenario-IDF
100
WU-4.50 Scenario-IDF
16%-32%
WU-8.50 Scenario-IDF
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Current Actions and Measures
 Workshops For PEI Municipalities to introduce the UWO- IDF
CC Tool with examples on how the future climate data will
impact stormwater components sizing and price. Also very
simple examples on cost benefit analysis and risk assessment.
 Incorporate/mandate the requirement of mitigating the climate
change impact on stormwater in the provincial Subdivisions
Roadway Guide or Policy.
 Design the provincial highways culverts and bridges using
higher standards as well as projected future data.
 Working with the Climate research Lab on UPEI to develop a
Culvert Decision Making System in which a culvert size
recommendation is provided based on using UWO IDF Tool.
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Future Actions
Plan a workshop for all engineers and consultants
in the Province to introduce the UWO IDF CC Tool
soon.
Advise and recommend the development of
adaptive approaches to climate change to other
municipalities who own and maintain their roads
and infrastructures.
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Thank you
Questions ?
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