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A Climate Risk Report Blue Mountains City Council Climate Change Risk Assessment Climate Risk Pty Ltd provides specialist professional services to business and government on risk, opportunity and adaptation to climate change. www.climaterisk.net Climate Risk Climate Risk Pty Limited (Australia) Sydney: Level 2, 50 York Street Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia Telephone: + 61 2 8243 5767 Fax: + 61 2 8243 1122 Climate Risk Europe Limited London: + 44 752 506 8331 www.climaterisk.net This report was prepared by: Donovan Burton - [email protected] Erin Laurie - [email protected] Blue Mountains City Council Project Team Vicky Frank - [email protected] Jenny Guice [email protected] ISBN: 978-0-9804343-6-1 This report has been partly funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change under its Local Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Climate Risk Pty Ltd who owns the copyright for this document. The attendance and contributions of Blue Mountains City Council staff and other stakeholder representatives at the climate risk assessment workshops is greatly appreciated. The important input of all workshop attendees has been fundamental to this report. Disclaimer: Climate Risk P/L provides professional services in relation to climate change risks and opportunities. Our technical and professional staff endeavours to work to international best practice standards using experienced scientists, sector specialists and associated experts. This document is intended to stimulate ideas and generate discussion for the Blue Mountains City Council. While the information contained is drawn from reputable sources in the public domain, Climate Risk P/L cannot take responsibility for errors or inaccuracies within original source material. This report does not consider individual investment requirements or the particular needs of individuals, corporations or others and as such the report should not be relied upon as the basis for specific commercial decisions. Climate Risk P/L supports a constructive dialogue about the ideas and concepts contained herein. © Copyright Climate Risk Pty Ltd, 2009. This document is protected by copyright. Reproduction is authorised provided that Climate Risk Pty Ltd is appropriately cited and any diagrams used retain the CR logo if it is present. Executive Summary Climate change is a critical issue for the global community. It is also of great significance for local governments. Climate change is already impacting on the built and natural environments, and climate change risks are projected to intensify and increase in frequency over the coming decades. Current science is predicting increased global temperatures from between 1.8˚C and 6.6˚C by 2100, with current emissions pathways tracking at the higher end of these predictions. the threat that bushfires bring (both in regards to human safety and the natural environment), with over 40,000 residents living in a high bushfire risk area (Risk Frontiers 2007). Other threats which were identified include the community’s exposure and vulnerability to a carbon constrained economy and damage from extreme weather events. The Blue Mountains Local Government Area (LGA)i and the Blue Mountains City Council (BMCC)ii currently face a range of issues which will be further exacerbated by climate change. Climate Risk P/L has been tasked by the BMCC to undertake a review of how climate change may impact on the BMCC and the community which it represents. The findings in this report show that although the Blue Mountains LGA is not a coastal community, and therefore will not face direct coast-based impacts such as storm surge and sea level rise, it is nonetheless likely to face an array of challenges. The community values its natural assets, with the Blue Mountains Community Survey (2007) indicating that protecting the environment was “the most important issue of concern” to residents and “the natural environment is the most valued thing about living in the Blue Mountains” (BMCC Community Survey pp. 15 & 97). The survey also identified the maintenance and conservation of bushland as the resident’s second highest priority for the coming 5-10 years. With an aging population, a high commuter workforce, and a constricted rate base the community’s exposure to the risks and demands to protect the natural environment introduces a range of challenges for the Blue Mountains City Council. Impacts on the Blue Mountains Local Government Area Impacts on the Blue Mountains City Council The Blue Mountains region has a large urban – bush interface which provides unique commercial and lifestyle opportunities. However it is this close proximity and reliance on the area’s natural environment which also presents the most challenging risks under climate change. The most significant risk facing the region is It is inevitable that climate change will place a strain on the financial viability of BMCC. It is possible that BMCC has assets which may become stranded (for example, through regulatory mapping and/or insurability)iii. BMCC will need to make challenging decisions regarding the cost-benefit of early, mid and late term adaptation options. Increased i The “Blue Mountains Local Government Area (LGA)” refers to the geographical location, and the community which reside in this area. ii The “Blue Mountains City Council (BMCC)” refers to the Council entity which represents the area and community of the LGA. iii Stranded assets refer to assets that are reduced in value (or functionality) due to regulatory change and/or climate change hazard. The asset becomes stranded when costs associated with retrofitting the building to comply or adapt exceeds Council’s ability or willingness to pay. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment i insurance, energy and maintenance costs are virtually certain, and will place strains on BMCC’s ability to provide other adaptive measures to support their community (for example, the advocacy for, and provision of, infrastructure for non-car based transport options). Many of the impacts or associated actions are likely to significantly increase, especially in relation to maintenance and litigation. Even with appropriate adaptation in place, expenses will still increase with climate change; however, there is evidence to suggest that these can be substantially reduced. Also, it is important to remember that the appropriate management of costs and impending hazards associated with climate change in the short term has the potential to result in financial benefit and resiliency in the long term. For BMCC, cost implications are clear as finances will have to be found to: • upgrade capital stock and systems to be climate resilient; • cover higher operational and maintenance costs; and, • cover higher insurance costs and potential liabilities. Council expenditure runs into the tens of millions and with limited potential to expand the rate base any increase in costs from climate change hazards (or associated strategies) potentially can dilute the viability of services to community. Currently the BMCC Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment spends $843,000 on insurance; over $1.8 million in electricity, heating and street lighting; and $52,000 on State emergency services (BMCC 2008). All of these are likely to increase significantly as a result of responses to climate change (e.g. emissions trading, changes to insurance, etc). The Australian Local Government Association estimated that the anticipated Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme may increase average council operational costs by approximately 1.8%. For the Blue Mountains this equates to approximately $1.5 million per annum increase in operational expenditure. This increase in expenditure has direct consequences on Council’s ability to fund other activities which may contribute towards BMCC and the community’s resilience to climate change hazards. Some of this additional income may need to be drawn from the BMCC rate base, or alternatively from State or Federal Government investments in adaptation measures. Workshop Results Through workshops with BMCC staff, 102 risks associated with climate change have been identified (see Figure i) for the BMCC and LGA. Of these risks, 36 were identified as posing an extreme risk, 34 a high risk, 28 a medium risk and 5 a low risk. Information relating to the weighting for risk priority values is provided in Figure 2 (page 4). Many of the extreme risks are associated with bushfire, biodiversity and impacts on tourism, as well as general issues ii Tertiary 3% Secondary 18 % Figure i. Risk summary by category. Of the total 102 risks identified in the workshop 80 were primary hazards, 19 secondary and 3 tertiary. Primary 79% associated with increased operational costs. A roundtable discussion was held with key stakeholders from the region. Throughout this report, details from these discussions are provided in the relevant sections (see Appendix 3 for detailed notes of this discussion). How the Climate Change Risks are Presented Within each of these hazard categories, the risks are then summarised in a quadruple bottom line framework: • Governance – impacts related to effective stewardship and civic leadership, compliance and accountability, community participation, resource and asset management • Environment – impacts related to natural assets including plants, animals, ecological communities, atmosphere, water, ecosystem processes • Social – impacts related to community health and wellbeing, social connections, population demographics, skills, knowledge • Economic – impacts on healthy economic activity, diversity of employment opportunities and The risks in this report have been organised based on hazard categories: • Primary – temperature, precipitation, extreme weather events • Secondary – regulation and policy change, insurance, carbon constraints • Tertiary - behavioural change, autoadaptation and confluence of risks Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment iii prosperity of the community The summary is then followed by a ranked listing of the risks based on their risk priority value rating (as presented in Figure 2, p. 4) Future Steps - Adaptation 1. Develop a climate change working group and supporting resources. 2. Add climate risks to the BMCC risk register. 3. Undertake detailed assessment of high priority risks. After the identification and discussion of climate change risks for BMCC and Blue Mountains LGA, the next step is to develop and implement an adaptation program to bolster the resilience of the area and its community. 4. Engage with insurers to discuss risk management and cover. BMCC is already undertaking a range of activities akin to adaptation measures, such as bushfire management and biodiversity protection, which provide a strong platform from which to expand upon and develop a comprehensive adaptation program. There are various steps that BMCC can undertake to help improve its resilience to climate change. 6. Increase and maintain adaptive capacity. Climate Risk P/L has identified ten opportunities for BMCC’s consideration: Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 5. Embed climate change planning into organisational business planning processes. 7. Representation to state and federal governments. 8. Identify potential cocktail effects. 9. Explore partnerships for economic resilience. 10. Raise community awareness and support community initiatives. iv Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction 1 2.0 Methods 3 3.0 Climate Change Overview 5 3.1 Climate Change across the Globe 3.2 Climate Change in Australia 3.3 Climate Change and the Blue Mountains 3.4 Adaptation and Mitigation 5 8 8 10 4.0 Climate Change Hazards 11 4.1 An Introduction to Hazards 11 5.0 Primary Hazards and the Blue Mountains 13 5.1 Temperature 5.2 Precipitation 5.3 Extreme Weather Events 13 23 27 6.0 Secondary Hazards and the Blue Mountains 35 6.1 Summary of Regulation and Policy Change Related Risks 6.2 Summary of Insurance Related Risks 6.3 Summary of Carbon Constraint Related Risks 6.4 Local Government and Climate Change Litigation 6.5 Stakeholder Roundtable 36 38 41 43 44 7.0 Tertiary Hazards and the Blue Mountains 49 8.0 Summary of Risks Identified 51 8.1 Confluence of Risks with BMCC’s Current Risk Register 52 9.0 Conclusion: Moving Forward to Adaptation 55 9.1 Adaptation – Next Steps 55 10.0 References 58 Appendix 1 BMCC Services Appendix 2 BMCC Staff Survey and Workshop Appendix 3 Roundtable Stakeholder Discussion Appendix 4 IPCC Storylines Appendix 5 Complete List of Risks Appendix 6 Current Adaptive Measures 61 67 70 75 76 82 Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 1.0 Introduction Climate change is a serious issue. It is already impacting on our built and natural environments and climate change risks are projected to intensify and increase in frequency. Current science is predicting increased global temperatures from between 1.8˚C and 6.6˚C by 2100, with current emissions pathways tracking at the higher end of the predictions. The impacts of low, mid or high range projections will result in massive international and national challenges by mid 21st Century to both reduce emissions and adapt to the unavoidable impacts that are already locked in. However it is also important to recognise that the climate change challenge does not happen in isolation of other events. Climate change can exacerbate other challenges, such as market collapse, pandemic risks, and geopolitical instability. Current challenges for the LGA are outlined in the document Towards a More Sustainable Blue Mountains - A Map for Action 2000-2025 (see Box 1). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment In this context BMCC provides a significant number of services for the community (see Appendix 1). Climate change will present BMCC with significant challenges over the coming decades in services delivery. Local Governments will bear the brunt of climate impacts and are therefore at the forefront of developing associated management strategies. As such, the Australian Government Department of Climate Change has provided funding for a selection of councils across Australia to undertake a preliminary climate change risk assessment through the Local Adaptation Pathways Program (LAPP). The Blue Mountains City Council was one of the councils successful in obtaining funding early in 2008. Subsequently, this report has been funded by this Federal Government process. It is envisaged that this report will prove a crucial milestone in identifying opportunities for creating a more resilient region and local community in the Blue Mountains. 1 Box 1. Current challenges for the LGA City for Visitors The Blue Mountains is justly regarded as a special place. The spectacular natural beauty of the Blue Mountains contributes immeasurably to the cultural setting and economy of the area. Being a tourist destination of national and international significance, the Blue Mountains is a City for visitors. Although tourism continues to constitute a major sector of the local economy, it also places development pressure on ecosystems, infrastructure, resources and local amenity. City on the Edge The Blue Mountains is a City on the edge of Australia’s largest Metropolitan Region. Retaining and reinforcing a Blue Mountains sense of place and identity, is perhaps the biggest challenge for the City on the Edge. City in a World Heritage National Park The City’s location within a spectacular World Heritage National Park not only places limits on the land available for living, but also places responsibilities on the community, Council and other agencies to ensure that impacts of urban development are carefully managed and that the internationally recognised values of this natural environment are protected. City at Risk The Blue Mountains is exposed to a range of emergency risks. In particular, the City is highly bush fire prone with settlement located on exposed ridges in close proximity to a combustible natural ecosystem. This poses threats to life and property, and creates a range of challenges in balancing the competing objectives of bush fire management and maintaining the environmental values of the Blue Mountains. In addition, with the linear settlement pattern access is restricted to a single rail and road corridor, which poses constraints in the event of evacuation or when the corridor is blocked by either natural or man-made hazards. City as a Bridge The Blue Mountains provides the land for a nationally significant transport corridor bridging the metropolitan and coastal east with the rural central western hinterland of New South Wales. The transport corridor continues to play a vital role for transferring goods and people across the State. However, the Great Western Highway and the Railway also provide the means for local travel between towns and villages dispersed along 100 kilometres of narrow mountainous ridgeline. City Divided The City is divided physically, economically and socially. The dispersed population is clustered in 27 separate settlements along a 100 kilometre ridgeline, posing challenges for the allocation of resources. Access between and across townships is limited by the Great Western Highway and the Western Railway line. This reduces connectivity and creates obstacles to movement within most towns. On a range of indicators including income, health status and educational levels, the Upper Mountains remains disadvantaged compared to the Lower Mountains. Source: Blue Mountains City Council 2004, Towards a More Sustainable Blue Mountains - A Map for Action 2000-2025, NSW, Australia, pp 8-10, accessed at http://www. sustainablebluemountains.net.au/imagesDB/resources/Book_and_Map%281%29.pdf on 05.02.09. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 2 2.0 Methods This climate change risk assessment follows the AS/NZS 4360 standard (as directed by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change for the funding requirements of this LAPP project). 1. Establish the context 2. Identify the risks 3. Analyse the risks 4. Evaluate the Risks 5. Treat the risks The risk assessment process for this project followed the Australian Government Guide “Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government” (Department of Environment and Heritage 2006). This is a scoping climate change risk assessment and forms the bulk of the first five steps in the risk assessment process. Ultimately the process includes the following steps: While the report does broadly discuss adaptation options, Climate Risk P/L has not been tasked to investigate treating the risks in this particular project (Figure 1). For more information on this risk methodology see Department of Environment and Heritage (2006). Figure 1. Risk assessment process The diagram below outlines the risk assessment process used in this project based on the AS/NZ 4360 standard (DEH 2006). Communicate and Consult Establish the context Identify the risks Analyse the risks Evaluate the risks Treat the risks Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Key elements Climate scenarios What can happen Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate risks Rank risks Screen minor risks Identify options Select the best Develop plans Implement How could it happen Monitor and Review Considered in this report Not considered in this report Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 3 A considerable proportion of the risks identified in this scoping risk assessment arise from an internal risks assessment workshop undertaken by Climate Risk P/L on the 8th September 2008 with BMCC staff (Appendix 2). In these workshops, participants (with support from Climate Risk P/ L) were tasked with identifying the probability and likelihood of certain primary, secondary and tertiary climate change hazards. The resulting output is a priority ranking of risks ranging from low to extreme. The qualitative weighting of these priorities follows the DCC workbook (DCC 2006) (Figure 2). A roundtable discussion with external stakeholders was also undertaken by Climate Risk P/L on the 28th October 2008 (Appendix 3 provides details of this roundtable discussion). The results from the workshop and roundtable discussion, together with Council information and national and international academic literature form this discussion of climate change risks for BMCC and the LGA. Limitations of this study This study is by no means an exhaustive assessment of all of the climate change risks facing the Blue Mountains LGA and BMCC. This study relies on publicly available climate change data, which is limited. Ultimately this report identifies potential climate change risks within the context of currently available climate change data. Extreme priority risks demand urgent attention at the most senior level and can not be simply accepted as part of routine operations without executive sanction. High priority risks are the most severe that can be accepted as a part of routine operations without executive sanction but they will be the responsibility of the most senior operational management. Figure 2. Risk priority values These risk priority values are based on the Australian Government Guide “Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A guide for Business and Government” (DEH 2006) Medium priority risks can be expected to form part of routine operations but they will be explicitly assigned to relevant managers for action and maintained under review. Low priority risks will be maintained under review but it is expected that existing controls will be sufficient. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 4 3.0 Climate Change Overview 3.1 Climate Change across the Globe There is now overwhelming evidence that global average temperatures are increasing as a result of anthropogenic interference of the earth’s climatic system (Stern 2006; Pittock 2005; Stefan 2006). The latest data reveals an alarming trend in the rate of carbon emissions across the globe, which is contributing significantly to global warming. Data released by the Global Carbon Project (2008) indicates that, since the year 2000, anthropogenic CO2 emissions have grown at a rate four times faster than during the previous decade and are exceeding the worst case scenario projected by the IPCC. On average the world is currently 0.74 oC warmer than it was a century ago (IPCC 2007) (Figure 3). Current international negotiations are attempting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that is significantly below the 1990 levels (up to 80% by 2050). However, the latest data suggest that CO2 emissions are increasing faster than ever. Primarily this is as a result of the rapid economic growth experienced by China and India, and the declining efficiency of the world’s natural carbon sinks (Global Climate project 2008; Canadell et al. 2007). The Earth’s global temperature has warmed significantly over the past 100 years (IPCC 2007). Furthermore the rate of change has not been uniform across the globe, with the northern latitudes seeing far greater warming than other regions. Evidence that an increase in the earth’s global temperature is already affecting terrestrial biological systems is mounting, with changes being recorded in numerous scientific publications and international reports (IPCC 2007; Rosenzweig et al. 2008). The fourth assessment report by the IPCC Working Group II has warned that the consequences of climate change – including sea level rise and increased frequency and intensity of weather events – will result in ‘adverse effects on human and natural systems’ (IPCC 2007, p. 52). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 5 0.6 Figure 3. Evidence of global warming 0.4 Temperature anomaly (oC) There is a discernable increase in global temperatures since 1900 as the black line with multi-year smoothing shows (Brohan et al. 2006). 0.2 0.0 - 0.2 - 0.4 - 0.6 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Regardless of existing efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions it is now widely accepted that global world temperatures will continue to rise. This is because we have the impacts that are already ‘locked in’ due to the existing carbon loading in the atmosphere and climate inertia. The latest projections by the IPCC suggest that average global temperatures will increase by approximately 1.8oC and 4.4 oC by 2100 (IPCC 2007) (Figure 4). However, some scientists, including James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, believe that these projections are conservative and predict global temperatures may rise by up to 6oC by the end of the century (Hansen et al. in press)1. Although these figures may appear insignificant, it is critical to note that an increase of only 2oC can result in devastating consequences to all inhabitants of this planet. As shown by Garnaut (2008, p.100), up to 2.1oC warming may mean 3% to 17% of the world’s species become extinct and a 1% 1 to 31% likelihood of irreversible melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (leading to significant sea level rise) (Figure 5). An increase of 1.5oC to 2.5oC is also likely to have negative impacts on ecosystems services (e.g. water and food supply), and have serious consequences for human and animal health (IPCC 2007, p.26). Some argue that 2oC of average warming leads to the beginnings of “runaway” climate change, where positive feedback mechanisms are triggered (such as the drying of the Amazon Rainforest or melting of permafrost), leading to the realisation of higher end climate change projections (i.e. 6oC increase of 1990 levels and up to 2 metres sea level rise by 2100). Although there are existing international discussions continuing to identify ways to limit and contain average global warming, the global greenhouse emissions continue to rise. This pattern is projected to continue without a concerted global effort to contain emissions growth (Figure 6). Hansen et al. (in press) and Rind (2008) argue that standard climate models (including the widely used Charney Sensitivity model) do not consider significant factors such as changes in glaciation and vegetation and the ability of oceans to absorb CO 2, which diminishes as sea water temperature rises. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 6 Figure 4. Future warming by 2100 Projected surface warming for end of 21st Century (IPCC 2007); temperatures are relative to the period 1980-1999. Extreme climate response or impact 450 550 No mitigation 1.5 (0.8-2.1) C 2 (1.1-2.7) C 5.1 (3-6.6) oC (a) Species at risk of extinction 7 (3-13)% 12 (4-25)% 88 (33-98)% (b) Likelihood of initiating large-scale melt of the Greenland ice sheet 10 (1-31)% 26 (3-59)% 100 (71-100)% (c) Area of reefs above critical limits for coral bleaching 34 (0-68)% 65 (0-81)% 99 (85-100)% (d) Threshold for initiating accelerated disintegration of the west Antarctic ice sheet No No Yes (e) Threshold for changes to the variability of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation No No Yes (f) Threshold where terrestrial sinks could become carbon sources Possibly Possibly Yes Temperature outcomes o o Estimated lower threshold exceeded by 2100 Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Figure 5. Critical thresholds Summary of extreme climate responses, high-consequence outcomes and ranges for tipping points for the three emissions cases by 2100 (Garnaut 2008, p.102). 7 160 Figure 6. Global emissions pathways giam 120 a1fi a2 GtCO2-eq a1b b2 80 Recent ABARE modelling shows that current emission rates (GIAM) are outpacing previous IPCC projections. a1t b1 40 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year 3.2 Climate Change in Australia Australia is vulnerable to a changing climate (Table 1). The past century has seen Australia experience an average warming of 0.7°C and a significant reduction in coastal precipitation (Preston & Jones 2006). This warming trend is set to continue with predictions that by 2030 average Australian temperatures could increase from 0.4°C to 2°C above 1990 temperatures and 1°C to 6°C by 2070 (Preston & Jones 2006). According to the Australian Department of Climate Change, climate change will place considerable strain on Australia’s coastal communities, including through sea level rise, increased storm surges, changes to marine and coastal biodiversity, and changes to fisheries (Voice et al. 2006, p.2). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 3.3 Climate Change and the Blue Mountains Under a high emissions scenario it is predicted that the Blue Mountains may experience: • Increased temperatures of 2°C by 2050 • Decreased annual rainfall – 1-2% by 2050 • Increased hail size • Increased summer wind speed – 5% by 2030 and 10% by 2050 The specific climate change impacts are discussed in more detail in the following chapter (Chapter 4). 8 Table 1. Expected impacts for Australia with increasing temperatures (CSIRO 2006). Temperature Increase (oC) Projected Impacts • • • • 10–40% shrinkage of snow-covered area in the Australian Alps 18–60% decline in 60-day snow cover in the Australian Alps Bleaching and damage to the Great Barrier Reef equivalent to 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of years 60% of the Great Barrier Reef is regularly bleached Habitat is lost for 14% of Victoria’s marine invertebrates 50% decrease in habitat for vertebrates in northern Australia tropics <5% loss of core habitat for Victorian and montane tropical vertebrate species 28% of Dryandra species’ core habitat is significantly reduced in SW Australia 4% of Acacia species’ core habitat is significantly reduced in SW Australia 63% decrease in Golden Bowerbird habitat in N Australia Habitat for 3 frog and 15 threatened/endangered mammals in W Australia is lost or restricted 50% decrease in montane tropical rainforest area in N Australia 1-2 • • • • • • • Up to 58–81% of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached every year Hard coral reef communities are widely replaced by algal communities 90% decrease in core habitat for vertebrates in northern Australia tropics 5–10% loss of core habitat for Victorian and montane tropical vertebrate species 88% of butterfly species’ core habitat decreases 66% of core habitat for Dryandra species is significantly reduced in SW Australia 100% of Acacia species are eliminated in SW Australia 2-3 • • • • • 97% of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached every year 10–40% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species 92% of butterfly species’ core habitat decreases 98% decrease in Bowerbird habitat in N Australia 80% loss of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu (30 cm sea level rise) 3-4 • • • • • • Catastrophic mortality of coral species annually 95% decrease in distribution of Great Barrier Reef species 65% loss of Great Barrier Reef species in the Cairns region 20–85% shrinkage of total snow-covered area in the Australian Alps 38–96% decline in 60-day snow cover in the Australian Alps 30–70% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species 4-5 • 60–90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species >5 • 90–100% of core habitat lost for most Australian vertebrates <1 • • • • • • • • Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 9 3.4 Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies to deal with climate change generally consist of two elements: adaptation and mitigation (Pittock 2005, p.7). The IPCC defines adaptation as an ‘adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities’ ( Metz et al. 2001, p.708). This definition is expanded on by Adger, et al. (2005) who state that ‘adaptation can involve both building adaptive capacity … and implementing adaptation decisions’ (p.77). Mitigation is defined by the IPCC (Metz et al. 2001, p. 716) as ‘an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.’ Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment In a summary for the IPCC, Banuri et al. (2001, p.52) advocate that adaptation and mitigation must be considered together in any climate change response. The connection between adaptation and mitigation is often overlooked. Environmental lag time means that climate change is already here and that we have to adapt to current and future changes that are already locked in. Mitigation strategies attempt to reduce the severity of the impacts and ensure that any climatic change occurs within our capacity to adapt (Pittock 2005). 10 4.0 Climate Change Hazards 4.1 An Introduction to Hazards For this report a hazard is identified as: climate change related event, series of events or variation, or an action in response to these, which has the potential to result in a material economic, social or environmental loss. (Climate Risk 2008) For further clarification we present the climate change hazards in three distinct themes of impacts – primary, secondary and tertiary – which are explained in detail below (Figure 7). To identify primary climate change hazards specialists utilise projections from Global Circulation Models (GCM). Although the science behind climate change projections is improving there are still a range of uncertainties. There are twenty GCMs that are used throughout the world and each of these have their own strengths and weaknesses for climate change variables and spatial coverage. Further uncertainties arrive when the GCMs are downscaled to the regional level. However, as long as the uncertainties are recognised, GCMs provide a useful exploration into the possible future climate change scenarios. Projections of climate change beyond 2030 are highly dependent on the global emissions pathway (see Appendix 4). At present the world’s emissions growth is about 3.0% per year. This is well above the A1FI (IPCC worst case) scenario of 2.5%. According to Garnaut (2008), the emissions trajectory for what he describes as the Platinum Age Primary Hazards (direct physical effects) examples: 1. Temperature 2. Precipitation 3. Drought 4. Wind 5. Fire weather (increased bushfire conditions) 6. Sea-level rise 7. Severe weather (e.g. hail and lightning) Figure 7. Climate change risk categories Climate change impacts can are categorised in this report into Primary, Secondary and Tertiary climate change hazards. Secondary Hazards (regulatory) examples: 1. Hazards from industry regulation 2. Carbon constraints and markets 3. Hazard mapping 4. Building and infrastructure standards 5. Insurance industry regulatory change Tertiary Hazards (social response) examples: 1. Changing consumer demographics 2. Changing consumer geographical distribution 3. Changing consumer spending patterns Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 11 is projected to see global emissions increase by 3.1% per year. As most current models follow the A2 scenario (of 2% growth per annum) the IPCC worst case scenario is looking more like being the best case. The following commentary highlights the primary, secondary and tertiary hazards that the Blue Mountains LGA and BMCC face. The risk rankings (according to the AS / NZS 4360 standard) are presented at the end of each climate change variable. These risk rankings are based on the results from the BMCC workshop findings (see methodology section for a discussion on what each level of risk relates to). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 12 5.0 Primary Hazards and the Blue Mountains The key primary hazards for the Blue Mountains Region include: 5.1- Increased temperature (including changes to the mean, number of days over 35°C, and bushfire weather). 5.2 - Precipitation change (including changes to the mean, and daily/hourly rainfall intensity). 5.3 - Extreme weather events (including storms and hail). 5.1 Temperature In the Blue Mountains LGA, increased temperatures will result in a number of associated threats, most significantly: • increased bush fire intensity; • longer fire weather seasons; • increased number of bush fire events; • significant threats to some species in the World Heritage Area; • possible increased demand to develop the area due to an influx of people from more humid areas; • damage to agricultural products; • damage to visual amenity and maintenance of open space; and, • increased insurance costs. • strain on health service; • a range of bushfire specific risks; • impacts on tourism; • loss of biodiversity; • smoke and air pollution; • health effects on the aging population; • risks to Council staff working outdoors; • population shift from other areas outside of the Blue Mountains; • loss of gardens; and, • impacts on transport routes. A summary of these results, and other identified risks, can be found below (see Table 2). Workshop Findings In the workshop a number of temperature related risks were identified. Those which were considered to be of most significance were: Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 13 Summary of Temperature Related Risks The following diagram presents temperature related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Governance Figure 8. Risk Summary: Temperature related risk priorities according to quadruple bottom line framework. Power failure OHS exposure Bushfire management Weed management Resource strain Public safety Damage to assets (bushfire) Key Social Limited rail Population influx Transport management Garden & park management Interruption to council activities Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Increased crime Power outages Health impacts Aging population vulnerability Community overreaction (eg felling trees) Public safety Hospital service strain Damage to property and assets (bushfire) Reduced jobs (from reduced tourism) Retrofit buildings Increased swimming pool use Climate Risk Reduced tourism Disrupted transport routes Economic Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Weeds Bushfire Environment 14 Temperature Related Issues Loss of biodiversity Inadequate hospital capacity to deal with heatwave events Risk Rating Extreme Extreme Higher pressure on electricity services (e.g. air-conditioning) – power failure Extreme Public health and OHS impacts on outdoor workers – risk to worker safety, CWP and building maintenance, sporting facilities, skin cancer Extreme Ecological changes, native vegetation, weeds, weed infestation, water quality Extreme Increased fire frequency and intensity fuelled by winds with fireballs – high intensity fire – impacting on renewal of ecosystems Extreme Human safety e.g. fires wipe out walking tracks with safety barriers, injury, death Extreme Damage to property and assets Extreme Extended fire season – reduced capacity to service – resource stretch, inability for fire fighters to extinguish fires Extreme Reduced forward planning –back burning/hazard management Extreme Tourist impact – prolonged season reduces tourism, affects image, economic impacts Extreme Business – loss of productivity and council operations Extreme Ecosystem and tourist features (e.g. Grose Valley, Blue Gum forest) – long term damage due to unnatural fire patterns, maturation cycle of trees not met Extreme Pollution impacts (e.g. increases in air conditioning use to filter the air) – lack of visibility, smoke air pollution Extreme Vulnerability of single transport routes High Health events (e.g. age, sunburn, less external activities particularly as aging population are requiring more covered recreational areas) High Increased water usage – bore and surface High Ageing population vulnerable to heat stress High People influx from humid areas High Loss of public/private gardens due to lack of water – tourism impacts High Blocked transport corridors, displaced corridors High Fire fighting activities stop other council work occurring High Health impacts of asthma patients High Community knee jerk reaction – removal of more trees than necessary for protection High Tourism will be affected by fewer snow days (appeal factor) Medium Limited budget to retrofit infrastructure during warmer winters Medium Higher rates of aggravated crime Medium Increased use of swimming pools Medium Increased power outages Medium Impact on business from absentees/ inaccessibility to employment centres – commuting to CBD etc Medium Impact on vegetation from preemptive clearing Medium Buckling of rail tracks Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Table 2. Risks, and their rankings, for issues relating to temperature. Low 15 Box 2. Stakeholder Roundtable Discussions on Temperature Participants at the Stakeholder Roundtable saw bushfire as a significant threat. It was recognised that the BMCC and associated stakeholders are leaders in dealing with bushfire risks. Discussions at the roundtable brought forward some key ideas and questions: • An increase in fire intensity and fire frequency means a large increase in threat. Do increased fire intensity and frequency go ‘hand-in-hand’? * Fire patterns generally differ with each fire, therefore intensity and frequency may be linked. * There may be a species shift towards ‘fire loving’ species which burn hotter and will lead to more intense fires. • The Blue Mountains community is recognised as a leader in responding to fire threat. It is important that the community and BMCC work together to plan for changing fire threats. * Adaptation of hazard reduction measures to suit changing threats, including in areas such as community education, dry fire fighting (to respond to a decrease in available water), and remote fire fighting teams. * It is important that the community plans thoroughly for fire – there must be community education, agency cooperation and individuals need to take responsibility for their own bushfire action plans. * BMCC must assist the community in changing its expectations of how it will live with the environment. For example, development on the bush interface will no longer be acceptable when we are managing our risks. There is the need to consider how to protect world heritage values as well as the urban environment. See Appendix 3 for detailed notes of the external workshop Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 16 5.1.1 Temperature Related Discussion 5.1.1.1 Heatwaves Probably the most significant temperature related hazard is the change in return rate of extreme heat days (or ‘heatwave’). The definition of a heatwave differs across the globe, but generally it: can be defined as a prolonged period of excessive heat. The difficulty in defining a heat wave in Australia has been in establishing an appropriate heat index with an acceptable event threshold and duration, and relating it to the climatology of the area under investigation. (BoM 2008) Heatwaves have caused more fatalities than any other natural hazard in Australia (Granger & Haye 2000). According to Andrews (in Granger & Haye 2000), between 1907 and 1992, a total of 3843 heatwave deaths occurred in Australia, 33% of which were in NSW. This return rate may decrease (occur more often) with the onset of climate change. Recent science suggests that increased global average temperatures may lead to “more intense, longer lasting, and/ or more frequent” heatwaves (Meehl & Tabaldi 2004, p.994). Heatwaves can have serious human health ramifications, especially on the elderly and infirm. It can also place considerable strain on infrastructure, energy supply as well as increase livestock and crop losses (Granger & Hayne 2000). The recent (January 2009) heat wave in Victoria and South Australia highlighted Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment the impacts that heat waves can have on human health. According to Professor Nicholls of Monash University late January saw a significant heatwave death toll of “100 at least in Melbourne and more than 200 across south-eastern Australia” (The Age 2009). Furthermore during this heat wave the combination of increased demand and energy loss on transmission lines resulted in a failure of energy supply. During this period there were rolling blackouts which impacted on businesses and residents. 5.1.1.2 Bushfire It is well documented that increased temperatures are associated with increased bushfire danger (William et al. 2001; Hennessy et al. 2007; Pitman et al. 2007). A recent Australian study predicted that under an A2 emissions scenario there could be up to a 100% increase in bushfire and grassland fires. In relation to the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area (GBMWHA), it is predicted that the number of ‘very high’ to ‘extreme’ bushfire days could increase by up to 75% by 2050, with up to a 25% increase in area burned (Department of Climate Change 2008). The increasing popularity of rural residential living, as well as the preservation of natural areas within urban developments, poses an increasing level of risk (Granger et al. 2003). In the US, bush fire models show that if there is a doubling of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere, resultant impacts would include decreased fire containment, increased area at risk of burning, increased costs 17 for containment and, ultimately, increased economic losses (Mills 2002). Consequently, the negative social outcomes that may follow include loss of property, damage to forests and wildlife, loss of life, loss of tourism, respiratory health problems, and a greater likelihood of business disruption (Epstein and Mills 2006). Figure 9 highlights a Californian example which illustrates the link between increasing temperature and the extent of bushfire. as threatened (BMCC 2008). The climate change risks may be especially challenging for some of the rarer species: More extreme and more frequent wildfires are likely to have a major impact on the fire-sensitive rainforest and alpine forest communities and the organisms that they support. The rainforests of the Great Blue Mountain World Heritage Area (WHA) provide a microclimate for primitive plant species with Gondwanian affinities, such as the Wollemi Pine (Wollemia nobili). This species, originally thought to be extinct, is found in only one specific location in this WHA. Although the effect of fire on the Wollemi Pine remains largely unknown, catastrophic fire events could threaten remaining stands. (Heath et al. 2008) The Blue Mountains natural environment is also at risk from bushfire due to its high diversity of habitats and dominance of fire-prone eucalypt forests (Hammill 2007). Despite many of the species being resilient to fire, higher fire frequencies may cause local extinction and irreparable changes to the composition of the vegetation (Hammill 2007). In the Blue Mountains there a 85 plant and animal species and 7 ecological communities listed Figure 9. Relationship between temperature and bushfire 70 000 60 000 Large wildfires in California and neighbouring states vs average monthly maximum temperature, 1980-99 (from Westerling and Bryant 2008). 50 000 Area burned (hectares) 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Maximum temperature (oC) Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 18 Box 3. Temperature - The Blue Mountains Context The Blue Mountains community faces competing challenges in balancing objectives of bushfire management and maintaining the environmental values of the Blue Mountains. With the higher bushfire risk due to climate change, these challenges will increase. The Blue Mountains Community Survey (2007) indicated that protecting the environment was “the most important issue of concern” to residents and “the natural environment is the most valued thing about living in the Blue Mountains” (BMCC Community Survey p. 15 & 97). The survey also identified the maintenance and conservation of bushland as the resident’s second highest priority for the coming 5-10 years. The Blue Mountains region has a large urban – bush interface which provides unique commercial and lifestyle opportunities. However it is this close proximity and reliance on the area’s natural environment which also presents the most challenging risks under climate change. According to research undertaken by Risk Frontiers almost three quarters of residential buildings (73%) in the BMCC area are in high bushfire risk areas (within 130m). The recent tragedy in Victoria where bushfire claimed over 200 lives and caused hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage suggests that increased intensity and frequency of bushfire is potentially one of the most serious risks facing communities in high bush fire prone areas. The Blue Mountains has very limited evacuation routes. Any closure of these routes during a serious bushfire event could prove potentially catastrophic. The Blue Mountains World Heritage Area was listed on the World Heritage Register due to its large collection of endemic species as well as its natural beauty. More than one million tourists visit the region each year. Any threat to the natural environment of the Blue Mountains Region is a direct threat to its economic viability. Although the BMCC and other agencies undertake what many consider being best practice fire management climate change will no doubt introduce further challenges. Overcoming these challenges (both preventative and reactive) will more than likely require further allocation from the Council’s operational budget. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 19 5.1.1.3 Impacts upon Human Health Temperature can also impact on the health of humans (see Figure 10). Increases in temperature, especially during heat waves, increase the incidence of food and water borne illness. This is a result of faster spoilage of food (McMichael et al. 2006), decreased treatability of the water supply (Soh et al. 2008) and changes in the “distribution and activity of flies, cockroaches, and rodents” (IPCC 2001). As shown by the IPCC (2001) “climate plays a dominant role in determining the distribution and abundance of insects and tick species”. Of particular concern in the urban environment are the potential challenges resulting from increased ozone levels. According to the Royal Society (2008) “ground-level ozone is a serious pollutant that affects human health, reduces crop yields and damages natural ecosystems”. There is a strong correlation between ground level ozone and temperatures above 32˚C (IPCC 2001). As ground level ozone is a significant pollutant in Australia, any increases in temperature may see an increase in the associated health effects (Horton & McMichael 2008). 5.1.1.4 Urban Heat Island Effect At the local level some areas of the built environment contribute to the ‘urban heat island’ effect. The urban heat island (UHI) effect is a phenomenon whereby the design and increased impervious surfaces of the built environment (i.e. through consolidation and removal of the natural environment) absorb and reflect more radiant energy than its surrounding environment (Kolokotroni & Giridharan 2008). This leads to increased temperatures (compared to surrounding environs) in the urban zone. The implications of the UHI effect can lead to increased rates of human heat stress and death (Devi 2006), reduced productivity, increased water use (Guhathakurta & Gober 2008), increased energy use from air conditioners (Santamouris et al. 2007), as well as a potential exacerbation of the other heat issues described above. Box 4. The Urban Heat Island - The Blue Mountains Context Although the Blue Mountains LGA may currently not be at risk of the UHI due to its bushland setting it is important to recognize the problems associated with development and the UHI and ensure that the region does not head in this direction. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 20 Figure 10. Relationship between climate change and human health There is a diverse array of health effects which result from climate change, with the elderly and infirm the most vulnerable (McMichael 2006). Modulating influences Health Effects Temperature-related illness and death CLIMATE CHANGE Regional weather changes Microbial contamination pathways • Heatwaves Transmission dynamics • Extreme weather • Temperature • Precipitation Agroecosystems, hydrology Extreme weather-related health effects Air pollution-related health effects Water and food-borne diseases Vector-borne and rodentborne diseases Socioeconomics, demographics Effects of food and water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious and other health effects Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 21 5.1.1.5 Infrastructure 5.1.1.5 Food crops Extreme and increased average temperatures also place a considerable strain on the built environment. For roads, increased temperatures during summer can prematurely crack the road surface and damage its water proofing. A recent report shows that for an increase of 2˚C -3˚C road maintenance costs could increase by up to 17% (Preston and Jones 2007). It is important to note however that road maintenance issues can also improve for regions in northern and temperate climates (Cechet 2007), primarily due to decreased snowfall and freeze-thaw events (IPCC 1997). In terms of crop yields, increased winter temperatures reduce frost frequency, thereby reducing frost damage and allowing frost sensitive crops to be grown in previously risk prone areas. Despite this, temperate fruits such as apples and stone-fruit require winter chilling for bud-bursting and fruit setting (CSIRO 2001). Warmer winters will reduce the amount of time in which this process can occur thereby resulting in lower yields and reduced fruit quality (CSIRO 2001). Furthermore, as frosts can also keep weeds and pests at bay a decreased number of frost days may increase the need for sprays and other pest management techniques to be used. Box 5. Infrastructure - The Blue Mountains Context BMCC is responsible for the management and maintenance of 637km of local sealed road pavement. BMCC will spend approximately $1.5 million in 2008-2009 on the road reseal program, resealing approximately 5% of the local road network. As the cost of bitumen is anticipated to rise any increase in maintenance cost due to temperature will further exacerbate the associated cost. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 22 5.2 Precipitation Workshop findings For the Blue Mountains LGA changes to precipitation resulting from climate change poses most significant risk for: In the workshop, participants identified a number of precipitation related risks. Those which were classed to be of most significance include: • decreased water availability; • changes to flooding patterns and return rate; • habitat loss; • soil erosion; • lower water flows for scenic areas (e.g. waterfalls); • decreased local food production; • loss of recreation amenity; • increased maintenance costs for natural areas; • negative impact on tourism; and • increased insurance costs. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment • infrastructure failure; • water quality; • species loss; • hail events; • water table levels; and • a range of issues related to drought. A summary of these results and others which received a lower risk rating is found below (Table 3). 23 Summary of Precipitation Related Risks The following diagram presents precipitation related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Figure 11. Risk Summary Precipitation impacts by quadrauple bottom line framework. Key Social Governance Damage to piping Increased maintenance Infrastructure failure Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Tank water quality Damage to property and assets Costs associated with retrofit of water supply Road cracking Damage to stormwater infrastructure Higher rates of suicide during drought Water table management from bores Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation Tree root growth in periods of low rain and increased heat damaging infrastructure Climate Risk Damage to small farming communities Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation Damage to property Economic Damage to natural environment Environment Decreased water quality in natural systems Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs) Habitat loss, reduced species diversity Lower water flows Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 24 Table 3. Risks, and their rankings, for issues relating to precipitation. Precipitation Issues Risk Ranking Irregularity, difficult to anticipate intense rainfall events and impacts, infrastructure failure Extreme Decreased water quality in natural systems Extreme Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs) Extreme Damage to small farming communities Extreme Habitat loss, reduced species diversity, loss of threatened/endangered species Extreme Increasing maintenance of natural areas, NP, pest management, vermin eradication, weed management Extreme Impacts on waterfalls and creeks – lower flows Extreme Damage to piping from lack of groundwater Extreme Water table management from bores and heat problems with impacts on ecosystem High More hail events – damage to property and infrastructure, litigation, relocation High Costs associated with retrofit of water supply High Road cracking, building cracking, damage to foundations High Loss of recreation amenity High Damage to stormwater infrastructure High Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation Medium Higher rates of suicide during drought Medium Tree root growth in periods of low rain and increased heat damaging infrastructure Medium Water tanks may be faced with health risks due to quality Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Low 25 5.2.1 Precipitation Related Discussion Australia is a dry continent. Any changes in precipitation are significant for human settlements and agriculture. Reduced rainfall, or number days between rainfalls can increase impact on costs and maintenance in the built environment from a drying of soils impacting on built infrastructure to reduced potable water and environmental flows (see Figure 12). Katoomba’s average rainfall is 1399mm per year and by 2030 this could change by up between -7% and + 7% and between -20% and + 20%. The projections for changes to extreme rainfall events (1-40 event levels) for 2030 and 2070 are -3% to +12% and -8% to +10% respectively (NSW Government & CSIRO 2007). The paradoxical ranges make planning for these changes extremely confusing. Until better modelling is available both extremes should be considered when making decisions. It is possible that some areas of the Australian environment may see both a mean increase in rainfall and increase in the number of days without rain (meaning more rain falling over fewer days and increased days between significant rainfalls). Figure 12. The range of drivers (exacerbated by climate change) that place pressure on Australian water resources (Source DCC 2008). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 26 Box 6. The Blue Mountains Context As the BMCC is responsible for the management and maintenance of over 7,296 drainage pits, 60km of open drains and 145km of drainage pipes with annual operational and capital expenditure of over $1 million (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan pg. 35-36), changes to precipitation patterns and volume pose considerable challenges in the management of these assets. 5.3 Extreme Weather Events Workshop findings For the Blue Mountains LGA extreme weather poses the most significant risks for: In the workshop, participants identified a number of risks related to extreme weather events. Those which were classed to be of most significance include: • damage to BMCC assets; • damage to community and business assets; • increased bushfires from lightning strikes; • damage to assets and infrastructure; • associated insurance increases; • implementation of new planning requirements; • increased pressure on emergency services; • community isolation (from flooding); • damage to housing; and • increased strain on emergency services; • costs associated with re-training staff. • impact on businesses; and • increased insurance costs. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment A summary of these results and others which received a lower risk rating is found below (Table 4). 27 Summary of Extreme Weather Event Related Risks The following diagram presents extreme weather event related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Figure 13. Risk Summary Extreme weather impacts by quadrauple bottom line framework. Key Governance Increased insurance Retraining staff Risks to assets Litigation Road flooding Pressure on emergency services Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall Buildings design not built to suit environment Dam may fail Lightning strikes start bushfires Increased costs associated with emergency housing Higher funding for RFS, SES Cost to clean up downed trees Power outages Inter-agency works not climate resilient Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Social Dam may fail Lightning damage to property Lightning strikes start bushfires Power outages Damage to property Public safety, safety in traffic Impact on recreational facilities Transport corridors blocked House damage/ litigation increase from flooding Road flooding – school and work closures Housing stability Fire and wind risk to homes Reduced revenue from tips Public relations Climate Risk Road flooding Lightning strikes start bushfires Hail damage Underinsurance Habitat loss – reduced tourism Economic Dam may fail Lightning strikes start bushfires Power outages Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Spreading of weeds Biodiversity loss Soil impacts Environment 28 Table 4. Risks, and their rankings, for issues relating to extreme weather events. Extreme Weather Related Issue Risk Ranking Increased insurance impacts/risks from increased storm events and intensity Extreme Accountants to be retrained with other skills Extreme Higher claims for section 44, risks to assets, council buildings, homes Extreme House damage/ litigation increase from flooding Extreme Road flooding – accidents, school and work closures, damage to infrastructure, drain blockages, risk to public safety Extreme More pressure on emergency services Extreme Housing stability Extreme Damage to housing and buildings from the impact of wind on fires Extreme Spreading of weeds High Damage to property from increased hail intensity and size High Wind damage increases High Biodiversity loss High Roof removals High Business preparedness / underinsurance for these issues to recover from an event High Public safety, safety in traffic High Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall High Soil impacts – erosion, loss of vegetation, landslides, loss of walking tracks High Habitat loss – world heritage integrity, reduced tourism High Impact on recreational facilities and sporting fields – closures, social impacts, increased reliance on reticulated water High Transport corridors blocked by fallen trees High Buildings design not built to suit environment High Dam may fail if greater 1:10,000 re spillway e.g. road closures, remove 10 houses, village shopping centre, railway, highway Medium Lightning damage to property Medium Lightning strikes start bushfires Medium Increased costs associated with emergency housing Medium Higher funding for RFS, SES Medium Cost to clean up downed trees Medium Power outages and age of substations to respond Medium Inter-agency works are not undertaken taking account of climate change e.g. limited underground electricity cabling with RTA widening of highway Medium Reduced revenue from tips as opened up to allow dumping of debris Low Public relations Low Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 29 5.3.1 Extreme Weather Event Related Discussion 5.3.1.1 Storms Storms, also known as extreme weather events, are a common occurrence in the Australian environment and occur frequently in the BMCC area. According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM 2008) “each year, on average, severe thunderstorms are responsible for more damage (as measured by insurance costs) than tropical cyclones, earthquakes, floods or bushfires”. In light of recent science it is anticipated that the intensity of these storms will increase with a warming of Australian average temperatures. The resultant impacts would likely include an increase in disruption to key services such as electricity and transport, increased damage to infrastructure, higher accident rates including water and aviation sectors, and increased outbreaks of post-event disease and water-borne diseases from extreme rainfall (Department of Climate Change 2008). Lightning strikes are also predicted to increase under climate change by a factor of 1.4 for every degree increase in atmospheric temperature (this is of particular concern for bushfire threat). 5.3.1.2 Hail damage Hail damage is responsible for some of Australia’s largest single event insurance claims and as highlighted by the Insurance Council of Australia hailstorm represent the highest percentage of weather events (see Figure 14). Recent research by Leslie et al. (2008) indicates that the Blue Mountains LGA has been exposed to significant hail events in the past (see Figure 15) and climate change modelling shows that “the Blue Mountains and the hinterland of the Central Coast appear to be particularly susceptible to severe hailstorm events” in the future (Leslie et al. p.51). Bushfire 12% Tropical cyclone 32% Thunderstorm 12% Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Figure 14. Percentage of Australian insurance claims from natural disasters (ICA 2007). Flood 8% Hailstorm 36% 30 Recurrence interval (years) 60 Current climate Future climate 50 Figure 15. Return rates of damaging hail with increased greenhouse gas emissions. Power (current climate) Power (future climate) 40 30 20 10 0 4 cm + 6 cm + 8 cm + 10 cm + Hail size Hail size Current climate 4 cm or greater 1.4 years 6 cm or greater 8 years Increasing greenhouse gas 1.2 years 5 years 8 cm or greater 28 years 19 years 10 cm or greater 51 years 28 years 5.3.1.3 Flood With intense rainfall comes flood. Global flood catastrophes have increased over the past three decades and it is predicted to continue (especially with the onset of sea level rise, combined with an increase in impermeable surfaces due to increased urban development) (see Figure 16). As shown by Hennesey et al. (2006) a 25% increase in the duration of a 30 minute rainfall event can see a 1 in 100 year flood event becoming a 1 in 17 year event. Short term flooding in the Blue Mountains LGA is common and can often temporarily isolate communities. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 31 Number of flood catastrophes 350 Figure 16. Global catastrophic flood events between 1980 and 2006 (Muncih Re 2007). 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 Year 5.3.1.4 Cyclones As shown by Leslie et al. (2007, p.179) it is projected that there will be an increase in the number of intense tropical cyclones along the Australian east coast with increasing numbers and severity of impacts over southeast Queensland and the NSW northern coast. While the anticipated southerly reach of projected cyclones would be unlikely to directly pass the Blue Mountains LGA, it will possibly face the associated surrounding, southward moving weather. The Blue Mountains, as with many other parts of Australia, will feel the indirect socio-economic impacts should a category 3 to 5 cyclone hit one of the major towns on the mid coast of Australia. 5.3.1.5 Wind According to Munich Re (2007) there has been a marked increase in the number Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment of global windstorm catastrophes (see Figure 17). Under climate change many parts of Australia are projected to see increased wind speeds – this includes the Blue Mountains LGA. Increased wind speeds during storms, bushfire weather, or simply these events on their own can create significant strains on the built environment, especially if the wind speeds cross design thresholds. It would be fair to say that most buildings are only designed and constructed up to the minimum required specifications (i.e. the relevant building codes), as going beyond minimum compliance attracts increased building costs. When design thresholds are surpassed it is normally associated with widespread damage as all buildings in the area face potential failure. This is shown in the diagram below, where a 25% increase in wind speeds results in a non-linear increase in insurance claims (see Figure 18). 32 Number of windstorm catastrophes 350 Figure 17. Trend highlighting the increased occurrence of damaging windstorms over the past three decades (Muncih Re 2007). 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 Year 700 % Increases in damages 600 Figure 18. Graph highlighting the nonlinear correlation between peak wind speeds and insurance losses (Hawker 2007). 25% increase in peak wind gust causes 650% increase in building damages 500 400 300 200 100 Under 20 knots 20-40 knots 40-50 knots 50-60 knots Wind speed Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 33 Box 7. Extreme Weather Events - The Blue Mountains Context Provision of Emergency Services During and following an extreme weather event, the efficient provision of emergency services is critical. The BMCC provides Emergency Management services to the community including emergency response coordination. The provision of emergency services will continue to be an important focus with significant resources supporting bushfire mitigation, emergency response, provision and maintenance of fire trails and Rural Fire Service State Emergency Services infrastructure’ including RFS/SES building provision and maintenance (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan p.38). Waste Disposal In the aftermath of an extreme weather event, the management of waste is a key part of the return to normality. The BMCC is responsible for the provision of two active waste management facilities. Significant works are being undertaken at the Blaxland and Katoomba Waste Management Facilities to improve the City’s waste infrastructure and contribute to increased resource recovery, reuse and recycling (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan p.37). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 34 6.0 Secondary Hazards and the Blue Mountains The key secondary hazards include: 6.1 - Regulation and policy change 6.2 - Insurance 6.3 - Carbon constraints (e.g. CPRS) For the Blue Mountains LGA and BMCC in particular secondary hazards pose the most significant risks for: • Operational costs (e.g. electricity, road costs); • Less funding for infrastructure maintenance; • Increased energy costs for the community; • Health impacts on the elderly (increased heating costs may see some forgoing winter heating); and • Increased costs associated with Council emissions reporting. Workshop findings In the workshop participants identified a number of risks related to secondary hazards. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 35 6.1 Summary of Regulation and Policy Change Related Risks The following diagram presents regulation and policy change related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Figure 19. Risk Summary Regulatory impacts by quadruple bottom line framework. Social Governance Assets – loss of control Costs associated with green power consumption Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains Key Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk New DA laws Costs associated with green power consumption Assist residents with grants e.g. solar power Implementation costs Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains Assets – loss of control Increased building costs Climate Risk Economic Environment Table 5. State planning policies and regulation changes State Planning Policies and Regulation Changes Risk Ranking Increased building costs associated with any new regulatory requirements Extreme Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning, community dissatisfaction Extreme Assets – loss of control Extreme New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable Extreme New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable High Costs associated with green power consumption Medium Assist residents with take up of rebates and grants e.g. solar power Medium Increased costs to councils due to extra responsibilities (e.g. cost shifting from state government, increased training, skill development costs) Medium Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning, community dissatisfaction Medium Assets – loss of control Medium Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 36 6.1.1 Discussion on regulation and policy change Federal and State climate change policies and regulations are being created at a rapid rate. In the past year the following significant policies and regulations have been created and/or amended for the consideration of climate change: National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting Act 2007 – this act is designed to support the collection, reporting and auditing of data by GHG polluters over a pre-defined threshold. It is still ambiguous where Local Governments sit within this act. adaptation) may see competition of resources and some measures being implemented more thoroughly than others. The second challenge surrounds staffing. There is a dearth of local government professionals (such as planners and engineers) and ones with climate change specific skills are even scarcer. As all councils will be responding to climate change policies simultaneously the cost of obtaining these key staff increases substantially. Finally, changing policies also means changing regulatory risks from litigation and planning challenges (this will be discussed below in further detail). Mandatory Renewable Energy Target 20 (MRET20) – Australian Government’s commitment for 20% renewable energy by 2020. Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) – This is the Australian emissions trading scheme. Companies who emit over a pre-determined threshold will have to purchase the right to pollute. These permits will be auctioned quarterly and can be traded nationally and internationally. These new policies and policy changes present a range of risks for Local Councils in three main areas. Firstly the enormity and speed of climate change specific policies create a substantial workload and cost for local governments to collate, synthesise and implement. Choosing to focus on one policy over another (for example, mitigation over Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 37 6.2 Summary of Insurance Related Risks The following diagram presents insurance related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Social Governance Figure 20. Risk Summary Insurance related impacts by quadrauple bottom line framework. Increased maintenance costs – to reduce insurance Insurance availability, uninsurable property Council underwriting more activities Insurance availability, uninsurable property Key Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Climate Risk Insurance availability, uninsurable property Economic Environment Table 6. Insurance related issues. Insurance Related Issues Assets – increased costs due to higher maintenance requirements Risk Ranking High Council – underwriting more activities, increased risk e.g. community activities Medium Development – reduced opportunities, insurance availability, uninsurable property Medium Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 38 6.2.1 Discussion on insurance Australian and international insurers are feeling the impacts from climate change. The growth in claims from climate related events has increased significantly over the past decade and insurers are seeking ways to contain this unsustainable rate of increase (see Figure 21). There are a range of threats that insurers face from Local Governments. Local Governments are at the forefront of land use planning and play a significant role in the development approval process. Councils are often prevented from rejecting development applications for a number of reasons. These include: time and resources to challenge in court, planning staff with inadequate skill sets or support to challenge development assessments and confusion surrounding the climate change science. This may lead to developments occurring in areas that may be too costly to insure. Another risk for insurers stems from class actions which may be brought against councils who have knowingly allowed development to occur in an area exposed to climate change risks. This will have a potential impact of the pricing and design of councillors’ and Index: 1980 = 1.00 Figure 21. Insured weather-related losses are rising faster than premiums, population or gross domestic product. Data exclude health and life insurance premiums and losses (Mills 2005) 25 2005: $75 billion (est.) $2004 insured losses $2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses $2004 property insurance premiums 20 $2004 GDP Population 15 2004: $44.7 billion $2004 insured losses line of best fit 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 39 officers’ insurance. Insurers ultimately have three options to spread their growing risks: 1. Cease insuring high risk areas or activities. Currently the Blue Mountains City Council spends over $1 million dollars annually on insurance (BMCC 2008). Any further increases in this will place significant strains on funding for other services. 2. Increase premiums. 3. Work with clients to minimise risks. At present the Australian insurers have tended to focus on the second action, increasing premiums, although there is a slow shift towards the third option. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 40 6.3 Summary of Carbon Constraint Related Risks The following diagram presents carbon constraint related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Social Governance Figure 22. Risk Summary Increased maintenance costs Increased cost of living Increased fuel prices Electricity costs Increased fuel prices Electricity costs Carbon constraint impacts by quadrauple bottom line framework. Key Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Climate Risk Increased fuel prices Increasing building costs Council development and monitoring Economic Environment Table 7. Carbon constraints Carbon Constraints Infrastructure - Less funding available for maintenance Risk Ranking Extreme Increased fuel prices – reduce travel and visitation, increased food prices, decrease of vehicles on GBH, restricted access to basic services (but better positioned for domestic tourism due to proximity to Sydney) High Energy costs for heating during winter in upper mountain and cooling in lower mountain High Increasing building costs – reduction in development Medium Council development and monitoring – increased costs and staff, training costs, increased skill development, delays in getting up to speed, more complex assessments, delays in approvals Medium Low income households, increased defaults, increased crime Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Low 41 6.3.1 Discussion on carbon constraints The Australian Government is committed to implementing a system to reduce national greenhouse emissions under the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) by July 2010. This trading scheme is a market based mechanism which aims to reduce carbon pollution by placing a cap on total national greenhouse gas emissions across a wide range of economic sectors. Although the Federal Government’s targets of a 5% to 15% reduction of 2000 greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 are less than some of the international community’s expectations, they still will ultimately act as a catalyst for a low carbon paradigm. The CPRS program presents two main challenges for Local Governments. Firstly, there is the cost associated with recording and auditing the emissions (although those who are already members of the Cities for Climate Protection program may already be somewhat prepared). The biggest challenge to Local Governments, and particularly BMCC, from a carbon pollution scheme arises from increased costs associated with fleet and plant fuel, the cost of bitumen, and the cost of energy supply for the services that it provides to the community. Although the Australian Government has indicated that there will be no net increase in transport fuel costs for the next 3 years, it is possible that it will rise after a transition time. Even a few cents per litre can increase the Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Council’s fuel bill substantially. With oil vulnerability on the horizon the problem is exacerbated within the community, who already feel the strain of increased fuel prices, demanding more public transport services and facilities. The cost of emissions under a CPRS scheme will be decided by the market, but there are various estimates for costs. In the short term, the Australian Government has suggested starting with a fixed price of $25/tCO-e to $40/tCO-e for an initial transitionary period. Thereafter the cost of carbon will depend upon on the trajectory of emission cuts as set out by the government. 6.3.1.1 Plausible Future Emission Levels There are several important challenges presented to Council in preparing itself for changes which may be at, or even beyond, the regulatory horizon. In the short term emission policies will be driven by political considerations including election commitments, international negotiations and the influence of impacted groups. In the medium and long term it is worth remembering that the objectives of carbon constraints are about the avoidance of ‘dangerous’ levels of climate change. The European Union has defined dangerous levels of climate change as greater that 2oC above preindustrial levels. This figure is based on the risk of unlocking significant positive feed-backs in the global climate systems which will lead to irreversible or ‘runaway’ climate change. 42 Australia will tend to be a ‘target taker’ of agreements which are established by larger economic blocks and enforced through trade access or sanction. If Australia followed the United State’s anticipated 80% national emission cuts by 2050, it would equate (on a per capita basis) to 83% cuts in Australia. The European Union’s position based on avoiding the 2oC warming requires an Australian emission cut of the order 90% by 2050. The implementation of national and international targets will depend on the participation of developing countries like India and China. Although the initial 2020 targets are lower than anticipated the Australian Government is committed to containing global CO2 emissions to 450ppm – which ultimately means deep cuts by the middle of the century. Whatever the targets are for 2050, there is little doubt that they will be deep and will change the face of the international economy. 6.4 Local Government and Climate Change Litigation As shown by recent publications (England 2007; McDonald 2008) climate change presents a legal minefield for Local Governments. Legal threats come from issues surrounding failure to abate (causation of greenhouse gases); failure to adapt to the known impacts; mal-adaptation to the known impacts; and, pressure from developers and community groups surrounding climate change mitigation and adaptation requirements (or lack of) for new developments. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment To a certain extent the Civil Liabilities Act 2002 offers some protection to Councils. Although as shown by England (2007) recent international and national reports and attention on climate change make it difficult for Local Governments to deny that they were not aware of some of the risks. A recent ruling in the Supreme Court of South Australia (Northcape Properties Pty Ltd v District of Yorke Peninsula [2008] SASC 57) has highlighted that climate change is, and will continue to be, a contentious issue for developers and councils. In this case a development was rejected by the District Council of Yorke Peninsular due to its failing to consider anticipated sea level rise. This was a view supported by the Supreme Court Judge who agreed that the foreshore could recede by up to 40m by 2100. Similarly, but perhaps more precedent setting, the recent landmark decision handed down by the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal in Gippsland Coastal Board v South Gippsland Shire Council & Ors (No 2) [2008] VCAT 1545, has served as a wakeup call for both developers and councils. While the Tribunal admitted that climate change was in an “evolutionary phase”, the deputy president and member jointly refused a housing development application on the grounds that it was reasonably foreseeable that the proposed dwellings would be at risk of sea level rise and coastal inundation. Although the cases above resulted in positive outcomes for the applicants, the process of gathering supportive 43 information and legal costs can be an expensive risk for Local Governments to take. Councils face difficult decisions surrounding the costs and benefits of such action. It could be argued that if the council did not challenge the development, then they could face action in years to come by property owners seeking redress from council for allowing development to occur in an “at risk” area. Dr Philippa England from Griffith University describes some of the potential legal risks for councils: It’s not hard to envisage the type of law suits [from climate change] that may eventuate or increase in incidence. These may challenge: • The appropriateness of development approvals in flood prone, coastal zone or at risk areas • The adequacy of building standards to withstand extreme weather events - as their area of activity expands and their frequency increases • Responsibility for erosion, landslides etc, resulting from extreme weather events • The adequacy of emergency procedures when more frequently put to the test • Failure to undertake disease prevention programmes • Failure to preserve ‘public’ natural assets in the face of climate change – if and when the technology becomes available. (England 2006 p. 4) 2 There is also a risk of litigation from businesses and residents if risks are hidden from public view. Anecdotal evidence suggests that some councils in Australia may be holding on to the findings of risk assessments. This presents a significant risk in itself, and may negate some of the protections that NSW Governments have under the Civil Liabilities Act 2002. It may be in the interest of Local Governments to consider divulging all known climate change risks to its residents and businesses to follow of volenti non fit injuria defence under the Civil Liabilities Act 20022. Climate Risk P/L recommends that Blue Mountains City Council consider these issues, and seek independent legal advice for these issues. 6.5 Stakeholder Roundtable The Stakeholder Roundtable discussion brought forward a range of issues relevant to the discussion of secondary hazards threatening the BMCC and Blue Mountains LGA. The external workshop attendees recognised the significant challenges facing BMCC, especially the risks associated with bushfires. Although it was recognised that BMCC was a leader in the field of bushfire management, and that bushfire emergency response was excellent, there is a need to further educate the community to be prepared for longer bushfire seasons and more intense fires. “The Latin phrase volenti non fit injuria or volenti for short is a long standing legal maxim that when translated means “to a willing person, no injury can be done”. It means that a person who knowingly and willingly puts himself or herself in danger cannot sue for the resulting injuries as they have voluntarily assumed the risk” (McGuire & Stevens 2007, p. 1). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 44 The participants identified that planning instruments are and will continue to be under pressure to contain development in order to manage climate change risks. Finding the balance between protecting the natural environment and ensuring safety of the population was recognised as a significant issue for BMCC. It was noted that the City Vision of increasing densities in key areas was a good way of containing future exposure to bushfire risks. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment The participants discussed ways ahead for the BMCC, stating that there was a need to future proof major infrastructure and identify ways in which Council could support the community and small businesses to become more resilient to the anticipated impacts from climate change and associated strategies (see Appendix 3 for detailed notes of the external workshop). 45 Box 8. Secondary Hazards - The Blue Mountains Context There are several areas of change that will impact directly upon BMCC services, these include: • Reductions in emissions from household, commercial and industrial waste. • Increases in vehicle efficiency. • A transfer of some transport from car to public transport. • Building efficiency. • Across the board de-carbonisation of energy in fuels and power. • New infrastructure. There will also be impacts that will indirectly affect the BMCC though the impacts on individuals and businesses in the area. Important impacts may include: • Reductions in aviation levels and increases in costs. • Constraints on some agricultural activity - especially livestock which is particularly sensitive to the level of emission cut pursued. • Significant reduction in land clearing. • Increases in renewable energy developments of various kinds. Of course it should not be assumed that all of these changes represent negative impacts to BMCC. It is possible that some will provide opportunities for inward investment if properly managed. However within the context of risk, the most important hazards to council include: 1. Long term building standards - Buildings have very long life-spans and therefore effectively lock in performance over many decades. There is an emerging tension between existing building standards, which are designed for past performance requirements, and the climate science which implies quite different performance standards. The council could find itself caught between these differing standards. 2. Planning and zoning for future development - Planning for a change to increase public transport use, and increase development of renewable energy assets may imply preparation for such developments in the Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 46 short term. For example, national biomass requirement may need to ensure the highly productive land is not committed to building or industrial development. Areas of potentially high wind energy resource need to ensure that urban development is not too close by due to noise levels prohibiting use. Note that such developments may also need to consider easements for infrastructure such as on-shore and off-shore transmission lines, CO2 pipelines and increase gas pipeline capacity. 3. Wide ranging economic changes - Some sectors will benefit, whilst others will be adversely affected or undergo transitions such as retooling, re-skilling or relocation. The biggest challenge to Local Governments arises from increased costs associated with fleet and plant fuel, the cost of bitumen, and the cost of energy supply for the services that it provides to the community. Although the Australian Government has indicated that there will be no net increase in fuel costs for the next 3 years, it is possible that it will rise after this transition time. Even a few cents a litre can increase BMCC’s fuel bill substantially. Furthermore the community, who are already feeling the strain of increased fuel prices, may demand more public transport services and facilities. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 47 7.0 Tertiary Hazards and the Blue Mountains Tertiary hazards are those which result from adaptations by the community or businesses to deal with climate change. There are innumerable possibilities and as such they are difficult to predict. They include real estate fluctuations, demographic and behavioural changes, as well as changes in infrastructure location and specification, and the advent and implementation of new technology. Indeed, climate change and associated hazards will have a range of impacts on the exposed general population, which will subsequently flow on to Local Governments. For the Blue Mountains, there is the potential that sea level rise can place development and population pressures on the region, if those living in coastal communities perceive their risks to be too great. Workshop Findings Even more complex is the issue of cocktail effects – those that are a combination of climate change and other systemic risks and include market meltdowns, pandemic threats, and terrorist events. Current oil price volatility combined with increased mortgage and rent stress exacerbates those already vulnerable to climate change impacts. The pressures from the increased cost of living may see some opting out of insurance. If a serious climatic event does occur BMCC will have to deal with a population that has very little resources left to rebuild their lives (such as what happened in New Orleans with hurricane Katrina). The result is a significant change in the community. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment At the workshop it was recognised that tertiary impacts were difficult to identify. However the participants identified three risks which pose a threat to BMCC: • Decreased tourism (from international emissions reductions and from local consumer behaviour change) • Threat of increased population (as people move away from coastal areas); and • Potential loss of environmental amenity due to increased development pressures. 49 7.1 Summary of Tertiary Hazard Risks The following diagram presents tertiary hazard related risks based on a quadruple bottom line framework. This provides an indication of how risks might impact on BMCC (Governance) and on the LGA (from an environmental, social and economic perspective). Social Governance Figure 23. Risk Summary Tertiary impacts by quadrauple bottom line framework. Increased operational costs Loss of environmental amenity Key Extreme risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Climate Risk Decreased economic viability Loss of environmental amenity Loss of environmental amenity Economic Environment Table 8. Tertiary impacts Tertiary Impacts Decreased economic viability as tourism slows Increased costs to councils due to extra population moving to BMCC area Loss of environmental amenity from increased development pressures Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Risk Ranking Extreme High Medium 50 8.0 Summary of Risks Identified The participants in the workshop identified a broad range of climate change risks. In total 102 risks were identified (81 primary; 19 secondary; and 3 tertiary) (see Figure 24). Within each of the levels of risk there were a considerable number of extreme and high risks identified (see Figure 25). Tertiary Figure 24. Distribution of total risks 3% Secondary 18 % Primary 79% 35 Primary 30 Secondary 25 Tertiary Figure 25. Distribution of risk priorities by level of risk. 20 15 10 5 0 Extreme High Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Medium Low 51 The linear urban footprint of the Blue Mountains LGA, surrounded by World Heritage National Park, limits the Blue Mountains community’s geographic flexibility in terms of opportunities for future strategic developments (i.e. there are almost no greenfield sites remaining). The Blue Mountains LGA also has an aging population, a high commuter workforce, and a constricted rate base. On face value, these characteristics appear to inhibit the ability of the community to respond to significant change. However, there are already existing aspects of the Blue Mountains LGA and BMCC which can be built upon when faced with carbon constraints and climate hazards. It is important to note that many of these risks may be exacerbated by nonclimate and other climate change risks. For example, a carbon constrained environment (from climate change or peak oil) may limit the capacity of post extreme event clean up. All aspects of climate change will place a strain on the financial viability of BMCC. It is possible that BMCC has assets which may become stranded3 (e.g. through regulatory mapping and / or insurability). BMCC will need to make challenging decisions regarding the cost-benefit of early, mid and late term adaptation options. Increased insurance, energy and maintenance costs are virtually certain, placing strains on BMCC’s ability to provide other adaptive measures to support community (e.g. increased public transport provisions). Increased maintenance and operational costs will likely run into millions of dollars (and even more if tort4 based litigation occurs ). Even with appropriate adaptation, expenses will increase due to climate change, although evidence suggests that these can be reduced substantially. There are clearly cost implications as resources will have to be found to: a) Upgrade the capital stock and systems to be climate resilient b) Cover high operational and maintenance costs c) Cover higher insurance costs and potential liabilities Some of this additional income may need to come from the rate base or from State or Federal Government investment in adaptation. 8.1 Confluence of Risks with BMCC’s Current Risk Register BMCC’s existing risk register highlight some significant challenges that will both exacerbated by climate change and limit the ability of the Council to create a more climate resilient council. The following discussed risks are those which have been identified as being both high in likelihood and consequences. These include: Bushfire Risk –Climate change is expected to increase the bushfire season and the intensity of fires. 3 Stranded Assets - Stranded assets are those which lose their potential to be utilised, hence council reducing the return on its asset investment. An example of this for a council is a community building located in an area re-defined (by government or insurers) as unsafe, say due to bushfire risk. As such council (and the community) loses the ability to utilise the investment. 4 Tort - A tort can be defined as a civil wrong in which a victim (plaintiff) seeks redress (such as financial compensation). According to Kerr (in Tranter 2006) negligence and nuisance are the two tort based actions that are the most appropriate basis for climate change litigation in Australia, and plaintiffs could seek remedies including damages or injunctions. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 52 Staff Recruitment – The current inability to attract qualified staff (such as planners and engineers) may hamper Councils ability to roll out adaptive measures. There is a national growing need for planners and engineers with climate change skills and BMCC may be limited in its ability to compete for these staff. The Council Going Broke – This is identified as a serious risk on the current risk register. As climate change and associated strategies will increase expenditure significantly this is a risk that will be exacerbated. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Escalation of the Water Crisis – increased temperatures will increase the demand and reduce the availability of water resources. This may ultimately lead to competition between environmental and community flows (e.g. less water available for the natural environment). Failure to increase revenue flows - Climate change will increase the operational costs for Council. If Council cannot increase its revenue flows then it will have to find other ways to fund adaptation measures (e.g. State and Federal funding). 53 9.0 Conclusion: Moving Forward to Adaptation This report has highlighted the risks the BMCC and the Blue Mountains LGA faces under climate change. Although the purpose of this report is not to detail an adaptation program, this section highlights the current policy, planning and management activities which the BMCC has already begun and upon which can be built a strong adaptation approach. By capitalising upon plans and activities which are already in motion, the BMCC can take advantage of having pre-prepared community and more experienced BMCC staff to work toward adaptation. BMCC can be a leader or a follower. Leading will inevitability risk community and commercial resistance, overcoming which will need a program of education and engagement. Therefore it could be argued that it is better to wait until the community and private sector are more aware and open to these changes. However, the problem we identify with this option is that waiting will lead to increased exposure to risk through development in inappropriate areas, an ongoing loss of capacity as people may move to other areas they believe are ‘safer’ (for example, retirees moving to more comfortable locations) or as staff and internal capacity are lost in BMCC as climate enhanced strains take their toll. If BMCC does decide to take a lead on climate change then there are issues surrounding resources, capacity and authority to deliver climate adaptive change. These include finding adequate budgets and suitably trained staff, and working within State and Federal 5 Government policy and legislation decisions. These aspects will be essential to consider in the delivery of an adaptation plan. Current BMCC adaptive activities are listed in Appendix 6. 9.1 Adaptation – Next Steps The following ten points highlight adaptation options which may help BMCC to build resilience in the organisation and in the community5. It is important however for the BMCC to create an adaptation plan to further explore climate change management strategies. 1. Develop a climate change working group and supporting resources Climate change presents significant challenges to the Council. At present there is minimal staff focused on climate change, as well as other sustainability issues. As such it may be prudent to further increase the level of knowledge of decision makers about climate change and establish climate change working groups to ensure that each sector of Council is represented in any climate change strategy. Furthermore, the seriousness of the issue combined with the opportunity of a new planning and reporting scheme, highlights the benefits of short – mid- term resource allocation to enable a concentrated strategy to be developed in line with the new plan and planning scheme. This would also be a fitting group to identify the priorities for action. Some of these recommendations have been taken and amended from other Local Council climate change risk assessments and adaptation plans undertaken by CR. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 55 2. Add climate risks to the council risk register By placing climate change specific risks on the risk register, Council can ensure that the awareness of those are heightened and considered frequently. 3. Develop an Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan The current project was a scoping study to examine the various climate change risks to the BMCC and LGA. Therefore it would be prudent to widen the scope of the current project to a more detailed assessment, including climate change and hydrological modelling. If resource constraints limit the timing of this process, Climate Risk P/L recommends that at the very least Council examines the risks assessment with a working group to establish priorities for adaptation and/or further research. During this process an identification of win-win options would be useful and may provide economies of scale (e.g. climate change strategies which have ancillary benefits to other council challenges). As there are many synergies and cross border dependencies, it would also be advantageous to undertake a scoping review of climate change strategies being undertaken by neighbouring councils. decrease the insurability of residents and businesses. It is recommended that Council examine ways of working together with insurers to share and reduce the potential risks. 5. Embed climate change into corporate organisational business planning processes By incorporating climate change into the planning process, BMCC could better capture the economies of scale, ensure that synergies between mitigation and adaptation are balanced and embed climate change issues into mechanisms with mid to long term milestones. 6. Increase and maintain adaptive capacity Council already is facing challenges from staffing constraints (especially with planners and engineers). Climate change is a relatively new issue for Council and Universities have only just begun to incorporate climate change into a range of degrees. As such new graduates (and existing staff) with climate change skill sets will be highly desirable. Council will need to embed climate change knowledge within its existing staff and encouraging employment of those with new skills sets. 4. Work closely with your insurer 7. Representation to State and Federal government Insurers will play a crucial role in mainstreaming climate change adaptation. Council activities have the potential to either increase or As shown in this report, both State and Australian Governments will soon be introducing policies and regulation which may have considerable impact on Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 56 the community and Council operations, as well as Council’s own climate change strategies. It is therefore imperative that Council come to terms with how these will impact on their community and operational performance and undertake appropriate lobbying. 8. Identify potential cocktail effects The risks from climate change do not occur in isolation. Other systemic challenges, such as the US sub-prime market collapse, oil vulnerability and pandemic health risks, are impacted by and can be exacerbated by climate change. When identifying the climate change challenges and opportunities it is of utmost importance that they are considered with regard to other risks. 10. Raise community awareness Ultimately the community will be dealing with the risks from climate change. As such it is important to ensure that they have a grasp of the issue. Continued consultation with key community groups and businesses may provide a valuable insight as to how each of these groups are (or are not) dealing with the issue. 9. Explore partnerships There is the potential for Council to utilise forward thinking private enterprises and other agencies and organisations as a way to help mainstream adaptation. For instance, BMCC may develop a relationship with a telecommunications service provider to help support information communication technology hubs. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 57 10.0 References ABARE (2008) Global Integrated Assessment Model: A new analytical tool for assessing climate change risks and policies, Climate Change Task Force (2008) Future Map: Melbourne 2030, available from http://64.233.179.104/scholar?hl=en&lr=&q=cache: Australian Commodities, March Quarter, Vol. 15, No.1 YLM2s2WocAYJ:www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/ClimateChanges/ pub/CSIROClimateChange2004-2005Standard.pdf+climate+chan ge+south+east+queensland+author:caf Australia Bureau of Statistics (2007), 2006 Census Community Profile Series: Caboolture Shire (Statistics Subdivision) (online), Available: http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/ABSNavigation/ prenav/ViewData?producttype=QuickStats&subaction=-1&are acode=30520&action=401&collection=Census&textversion=fal se&breadcrumb=WLP&period=2006&navmapdisplayed=true& (November 2008). 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Blue Mountains City Council 2004, Towards a More Sustainable Devi, S.S. (2006): Urban Heat Island and Environmental Impacts (online), Available: http://ams.confex.com/ams/ pdfpapers/104770.pdf (November 2008). Blue Mountains - A Map for Action 2000-2025,NSW, Australia, pp8-10, accessed at http://www.sustainablebluemountains. net.au/imagesDB/resources/Book_and_Map%281%29.pdf on 05.02.09.) Blue Mountains City Council 2008, 2008 – 2009 Management Plan: Towards a More Sustainable Blue Mountains, Australia, accessed at http://www.bmcc.nsw.gov.au/yourcouncil/ policyandplanregister/managementplan on 10 February 2009. 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Available from: http:// www.courts.sa.gov.au/courts/environment/judgments/2007_712/northcape_v_yorke_peninsula.html Tasmania Government 2009 “Karst” Department of Primary Industries and Water. Accessed online 9th February 2009 http:// www.dpiw.tas.gov.au/inter.nsf/WebPages/RPIO-4Y48EU?open. The Age (2009) Heatwave Left Hundreds Dead accessed 2 March 2009, available from http://www.theage.com.au/national/ heatwave-left-hundreds-dead-20090221-8ea4.html The Institute for International Development (2007), Caboolture Shire Natural Risk Management Study: Draft Report Executive Summary (online), Available: http://www.climateprediction.net/ science/pubs/nature_heatwave.pdf (November 2008). The Royal Society (2008) Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications, available from http://royalsociety.org/document.asp?tip=0&id=8039 Trigo, R., Herrera, R., Dý´az, J. and Trigo, I (2005) ‘How exceptional was the early August 2003 heatwave in France?’ Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32 Trigo, R.M., Garcia- Herrera, R., Diaz, J., et al. 2005, ‘How Exceptional was the Early August 2003 heatwave in France?’, Geophysical Research Letters, 32. United Stated Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) 2008, Mercury Containing Light Bulb (Lamp) Recycling (online), Available: http://www.epa.gov/osw/hazard/wastetypes/ universal/lamps/index.htm (November 2008). Voice, M., Harvey, N. & Walsh, K. (2006), Vulnerability to Climate Change of Australia’s Coastal Zone: Analysis of Gaps in Methods, Data and Systems Thresholds, Australia Greenhouse Office (online), Available: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/ publications/pubs/coastal-vulnerability.pdf (November 2008). Westerling, A. and Bryant, B. (2008) Climate Change and Wildfire in California. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1) S231-S249 Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 60 Appendix 1 BMCC Services A Focus on Services Internal Services Blue Mountains City Council provides the following ongoing day-to-day corporate services that supports the delivery of external services to the community. Internal Services Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining Asset Planning and Management • Asset and infrastructure management • Project management for major asset development • Survey and design Contract Management • Management of Service Level Agreements and budgets • Management of Contracts Council Buildings, Facilities and Property • Provision and maintenance of operational buildings • Provision and maintenance of commercial buildings and properties • Management of Council’s property portfolio – sales, acquisitions, leases and licenses, road dealings and easements Customer Service • Call Centre • Front Counter Services / Business Information Centre • • • • • Administrative headquarters – 1 Commercial buildings – 7 Operational land – 360 sites Depot buildings - 2 Customer Service Centres - 2 Central warehousing and purchasing Financial Management • Long term financial model and strategy • Investment management • Annual Council financial budget • Financial reporting • Accounts payable and receivable • Rate levying and collection • 87 - heavy plant equipment and vehicles Fleet • Provision, management and maintenance of the Council’s fleet (eg. flowcon, jet-patcher, road maintenance crew trucks, waste collection units, backhoes, graders, heavy rollers etc • 150 - light fleet vehicles (eg. operational utilities, 4WD, passenger vehicles) • 24 - towed Plant (trailers and site-caravans) • 58 - small plant items (mowers, rock hammers, etc.) Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 61 Internal Services Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining Governance • Councillor support and advice • Council meeting support • Local election support • Civic responsibilities/ events • Internal auditing and probity • • • • Legal advice coordination / delegations Compilation of Annual Report Freedom of Information management Coordination of complaints management and registers for grants, policies, delegations, political donations, pecuniary interests and legal matters • Media management coordination Human Resource Management • Strategic Human Resource Planning • Organisational and cultural change and management support • Remuneration policy and management • Employee/industrial relations • Human Resource policy and procedure • Occupational Health and Safety / rehabilitation / workers compensation • Enterprise Risk management • Recruitment services • Payroll services • Training and development services Information Management • • • • • Communications Land information Information Technology Internet services Records Printing • Printing and laminating • Various IT hardware / software • Various printing equipment Strategic Planning for the City • Strategic planning for the City – transport, environment, recreation, culture and urban design • Provision and updating of the Local Environment Plan and other required statutory land use plans Strategic Planning for the Organisation • Integrated corporate planning and reporting as required by legislation • Strategic service planning • Planning for a sustainable organisation • Corporate sustainability initiatives • Monitoring and reporting on organisational performance Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 62 External Services Blue Mountains City Council provides the following ongoing day-to-day external services for the community. External Services Burial and Ashes Placement • Provision of cemeteries and ashes placement sites • Burial and ashes placement management and booking service • Maintenance of cemeteries and ashes placement sites • Provision and maintenance of cemeteries Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining • Cemeteries – 9 Children and Families • Provision of Council buildings used for child care and pre-schools • • • • Family Day Care In Home Care Vacation Care Maintenance of Council buildings used for child care and pre-schools Community Development • Advocacy for services for general community and special needs groups – Aboriginal people, children, families, youth, older people, people with a disability • Advocacy for and management of community development funding • Community events and celebrations support • Provision of public halls and community buildings • Bookings service for public halls and community buildings • Maintenance of public halls and community buildings • Community Facilities, Buildings and Halls – 58 Community Safety • Advocacy for safety services from other providers • Safety and Crime Prevention Committee Support Cultural Development • Provision of cultural facilities and physical assets • Advocacy for cultural services from other providers • Advocacy for and management of cultural development funding • Cultural events and festival support • Cultural industries support • Maintenance of cultural facilities and physical assets Economic Development • Local business and industry support • Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute support Emergency Management • • • • • • • • Provision of fire trails Provision of RFS /SES buildings Advocacy for emergency management services from other providers Bushfire mitigation Emergency response coordination Hazard reduction control Maintenance of RFS /SES buildings Maintenance of fire trails Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment • Rural Fire Service / SES Buildings – 34 • Fire trails – 167,829 square metres 63 External Services Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining Environmental Health and Regulatory Compliance • Domestic animal management • Domestic swimming pools compliance • Dumped rubbish / abandoned vehicle control • Environmental health – regulation, approvals and inspections • • • • • • Building fire safety compliance Food premises inspections On-site effluent systems inspections Roads Act approvals Vegetation / tree removal approvals Water quality testing – commercial pools Environmental Management • Advocacy for environmental management services from other providers • Bush regeneration • Bushfire management • Cities for Climate Protection coordination • Environmental education • Landfill remediation • Stream bank restoration • Threatened Species Recovery • Vegetation clearing control • Water quality monitoring - ecological and recreational • Bush regeneration • Fire mitigation • Natural areas (bushland) – 11,000 hectares • Creeks (within Council managed land) – 363 kilometres • Volunteer programs - Bushcare / Land care • Weed control - urban and natural areas Land Use Management • Building inspection / construction certification • Development assessment • Development monitoring and enforcement • Protection of the natural environment through regulation • Protection of heritage values and buildings through regulation • Permits for weddings and filming on Council land Library and Information • Provision of libraries • Aboriginal Knowledge Centre • Community Information • Computers / Internet public access • Library programs and lending services • Local Studies and family history • Maintenance of libraries Stormwater • Flood plain management • Provision of stormwater drainage / infrastructure • Maintenance of stormwater drainage / infrastructure Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment • Libraries – 6 • Drainage pits – 7,296 • Open drains – 60km • Drainage pipes – 145km 64 External Services Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining Waste • Provision of Waste Management Facilities • Bulky waste collection • Green waste chipping • Recycling collection (kerbside) • Waste Management Facilities – 4 (2 active) • Waste collection • Operation of Katoomba and Blaxland Waste Management Facilities Sport and Recreation • Provision of sport and recreation facilities including: ° Aquatic and Leisure Centres ° Clubhouses ° Lookouts ° Ovals and sportsgrounds ° Parks and playgrounds ° Public toilets in parks ° Reserves and picnic areas ° Skate parks ° Sporting amenity buildings ° Tennis and netball courts ° Walking trails • Sports Council support • Sportsground bookings • Maintenance of sport and recreation facilities including: ° Clubhouses ° ° ° ° • Leisure and Aquatic Centres –5 • Parks – 105 • Sportsgrounds – 29 at 23 locations • Playing courts – 62 at 22 locations • Skate parks – 4 • Walking trails – 96km Parks and playgrounds Public toilets in parks Sporting amenity buildings Sportsgrounds • Health and fitness Programs • Swimming programs Tourism • Provision of caravan parks for tourist accommodation • Provision of Visitor Information Centre buildings • Advocacy for tourism services from local and regional providers • Support for tourism initiatives and tourism organisations including Blue Mountains Tourism Ltd • Tourism promotion • Maintenance of Visitor Information Centres • Caravan Parks – 2 • Visitor Information Centres –2 • Maintenance of caravan parks for tourist accommodation Town Centre Amenity • Provision of public open space, street furniture, trees, massed plantings, turfed areas, monuments and public toilets in town centres Advocacy and liaison on town centre amenity Town centres cleansing Town litter bin collection Maintenance of public open space, street furniture, trees, massed plantings, turfed areas, monuments and public toilets in town centres • Car parking control and enforcement in town centres • • • • Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment • Town Centres - 17 • Public toilets – 65 65 External Services Related assets the Council is responsible for managing and maintaining • Guardrails, fences – 25,175 metres Traffic Management • Provision of traffic facilities, signs and line marking • Local Traffic Committee support • Traffic safety • Maintenance of traffic facilities, signs and line marking Transport and Public Access (including Roads) • Provision of: ° Roads ° Bus shelters / bus stops ° Carparks ° Community bus ° Cycle ways ° Footpaths ° Street lighting • Great Western Highway widening and upgrades – advocacy on behalf of community • Integrated Transport Forum support • Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) Services • Maintenance of: ° Roads ° Bus shelters / bus stops ° Carparks ° ° ° • Signage general – 8,122 • Signage regulatory, warning, hazard – 9,343 • Marked crossings – 50 • Round-a-bouts – 19 • Pedestrian refuges – 37 • Wombat crossings - 29 • Sealed Road pavement – 637km • Footpath / cycleway pavement – 160km • Keb and Gutter – 493km • Bridges – 34 • Carparks - 164km2 • Bus shelters – 127 Community bus Cycle ways Footpaths • Street lighting Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 66 Appendix 2 BMCC Staff Survey and Workshop The internal stakeholder workshop was held on 8 September 2008 and was opened by the General Manager, Phil Pinyon. The introductory presentation was open to all interested staff from across the organisation. The presentation provided an overview of the current scientific modelling and an outline of risk management in the context of climate change. The detailed workshop that followed was attended by 23 staff from across the Council’s three Groups and including the Executive Services Branch. The development of the attendance list for this important workshop was undertaken by the Corporate Planning, Assets and Environmental Management branches and Climate Risk with the aim to maximise participation. A pre-reading document prepared by Climate Risk and titled “An Introduction to Climate Change Hazards for Local Government” was circulated to invited staff for their information prior to the workshop. The Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment aim of this was to introduce climate change issues and what they mean for Local Government. An on-line questionnaire was also circulated to gauge the current levels of knowledge on climate change in the organisation. In the first part of the detailed workshop small multidisciplinary groups identified potential impacts arising from climate variables and determined the Blue Mountains vulnerability to the impact. The second component of the workshop was to then assign likelihood ratings to each of the impacts. Using a combination of the likelihood and vulnerability ratings, a final risk rating was identified for each of the potential impacts. At the end of the day, a prioritised list of potential climate change impacts that will possibly influence our core business provision now and in the future was developed. 67 BMCC Climate Change Risk Assessment - Internal Stakeholders Workshop 8 September 2008 Attendance list Branch / Group Name: Tourism - Experience Development Coordinator Wendy Dollin Program Leader - Community Outcomes Maurice Brady Aged and Disability Officer Prue Hardgrove Manager Corporate and Community Outcomes Rosemary Dillon Program Leader Bushfire and Emergencies Alan Holley Economic Development Officer Bronwen Johnston Manager - Assets and Contract Management Alan Cattermole Program Leader Property and Facilities Gerry Hayes Strategic Planning Specialist - Transport Glenn Sherlock Team Leader - Civil Assets Tony Moore Team Leader - Rec. Development Elizabeth Dudley Bestow Investigations and Traffic Engineer Graham Green Risk Management Co-ordinator John Odgers Principal Development Engineer Paul Koen Manager Operations Damien Drew Team Leader Survey and Design Graeme Patterson Executive Principal Planning Will Langevard Manager Waste and Support Services Ken Phillips Program Leader Waste and Support Services Wayne Lund - Sally Thompson Manager City Planning Andy Turner Catchment Engineer Martin Ryzak Sustainability Education officer Robbie Beale Manager Environmental Management Frank Garofalow Bushland Management Officer Eric Mahoney Natural Systems Program Leader Geoffrey Smith Bushlands Chris Dewhurst General Manager Phil Pinyon Group Manager, Environmental and Customer Service Robert Greenwood Executive Officer Julie Bargenquast Manager Finance Neil Farquharson Communications Officer Adrienne Murphy Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 68 Survey Response staff responded to the survey with a summary of the results as follows: Prior to the workshop a survey was sent to BMCC staff members to ascertain an understanding of current climate change knowledge and issues. Twelve Question Question 1. Describe your awareness / understanding to the following Response Poor OK Neutral Good Very Good General Understanding of climate change 8.3% 33.3% 15.7% 15.7% 25% Aware of climate change impacts in their unit /division 15.7% 25.0% 15.7% 50.0% 0.0% Aware of climate change actions in their unit / division 15.7% 41.7% 25.0% 0.0% 15.7% Question 2. What do you see as the most pressing climate related issues for your division/unit? This was a qualitative question with the responses being: • Managing biodiversity • Energy consumption • Climate impact on gardens therefore festivals • Landfill gas emissions • Increased storm / flood / fire damage to infrastructure • Enforcing BASIX in residential development approvals • Keeping grass growing in parks and sports fields • Fire • Assessing the changing values of risk assessment and its impact on my program Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment • New weed species • Water consumption • Less snow • Emissions from transport of waste • Erosion due to different rain patterns • Flooding • Designing appropriate mitigation strategies • Greater demand for indoor/sheltered recreation activities Discussion The sample size was relatively small (twelve respondents) and did not provide enough for a statistical evaluation. However the survey was a useful guide pre-workshop. The results show that climate change is an issue that BMCC staff do consider and have already identified a range of potential climate change issues. 69 Appendix 3 Roundtable Stakeholder Discussion After discussions with Climate Risk it was decided that the project would be enhanced and the Council’s leadership role demonstrated by inviting input from external stakeholders. As a result, an additional workshop was convened after the internal workshop which invited external stakeholders in the City to comment on the risks identified internally by Council staff. This workshop was held on 28 October and was attended by 20 representatives from external agencies including, Integral Energy, Sydney Water, NSW Department Education and Training, the Rural Fire Service and NSW Fire Brigade, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Wentworth Area Community Housing, Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute, the Blue Mountains Community Interagency Group, Biznet, Blue Mountains Conservation Society and Western Sydney Region of Councils. The workshop: • • • • Provided a forum for participants to discuss greatest risks / impacts from climate change in the City; Informed stakeholders about what the Council is doing about climate change risk and adaptation; Gauged what other stakeholders are doing about climate change risk and adaptation; and Formed linkages between Council and other stakeholders for future discussion and collaboration. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment This workshop output will assist in making the report to council about climate change risk in the Blue Mountains more robust and holistic. Notes from BMCC Climate Change Risk External Stakeholders Discussion Tuesday 28th October 2008 In attendance: 1. Dr Karl Mallon – Climate Risk 2. Jen Guice – BMCC 3. Rosemary Dillon – BMCC 4. Vicky Frank – BMCC 5. Dave Allen – BMCC 6. Frank Garafalow – BMCC 7. Dr. Rosalie Chapple – Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute 8. Nick Sable – Wentworth Area Community Housing 9. Meredith Osborne – Community Interagency Group 10. Dave Monahan – National Parks & Wildlife Service 11. Helen Deane – Blue Mountains Conservation Society 12. Lynda Davis – Biznet 13. Rob Vincenz – Rural Fire Service 14. Anthony Englund – Integral Energy 15. Fernando Ortega – Sydney Water 16. Adrian Pearson – NSW Dept Education and Training 17. Colin Berryman – Western Sydney Region of Councils 18. Steve Douglas – NSW Fire Brigade 70 The following themes were explored: • Council Regulation and Planning Instruments What is the capacity for existing infrastructure to cope with increases in population? • Sydney Water – major efforts in water quality for the Blue Mountains LGA; there is an existing strategy to cope with increased demand, however the Blue Mountains LGA has a low risk in this area. • Integral - changes in energy infrastructure and use will occur with climate change and increased population density. Costs of energy will increase as a result of the CPRS and there is a need to develop tools to assist customers in managing their energy use - the community will need to focus on low emissions power supply; there is potential for power rationing if customers are not energy efficient; and, options are required for reducing peak demand/shifting use to off-peak. Customers will need to respond in order to ensure quality of power remains as expected. Standing council regulations and planning instruments will come under pressure to manage climate change risks. The Stakeholder Roundtable brought forward issues in relation to the strengthening of regulations and planning instruments – • BMCC planning and regulation instruments will continue to be under pressure to contain development in order to manage climate risks. Pressure from developers and State Government (via decisions in the Land and Environment Court) will continue. Retrospective planning standards are not suitable for dealing with the new and wicked problems of climate change. • BMCC will need to manage population increase efficiently. For example, moving from quarteracre block to medium density developments; and, using BMCC’s Local Environment Plan and City Vision to endorse centralised population and infrastructure developments (also resulting in follow-on benefits such as affordable housing). • Current policies for the delivery of water and power do not support local needs, rather they focus on a supply driven centralised model. Capital expenditure is needed to make a transition to improved infrastructure. • BMCC may require increased funding for the maintenance of roads and bridges to deal with Infrastructure The Stakeholder Roundtable illustrated the need for increased infrastructure capacity to deal with changing: Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 71 the potential for increased flash flooding. • Importantly, the emergency response in the Blue Mountains LGA is already excellent as a result of dealing with bush fires. This is an asset to the BMCC. • As BASIX only covers new developments, of which there are few in the Blue Mountains LGA, measures to retrofit existing building stock must be investigated. • Not all services, especially health services, are available in the BMCC LGA. CPRS and Increases in Energy Costs Increases in temperature will result in changes to energy use. The BMCC and community will need to be prepared for increased energy costs and decreased energy availability. The Stakeholder Roundtable brought forward some ideas surrounding energy use: • • There is a high proportion of disadvantaged groups in the Blue Mountains LGA. Increases in energy costs will compound existing problems surrounding disadvantaged groups. An aging population, poor accessibility and transport provision, and an increasing population driving rents up all combine to create further issues. Innovative solutions to deal with energy provision problems are needed, for example rather than economic hand-outs for low income groups, those who may be heat or cold affected will require complementary support. Cost neutral coping strategies, especially education, should be encouraged for assisting the population in being prepared for changes in weather conditions and energy availability. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Demographics The Stakeholder Roundtable identified that changes in the Blue Mountains LGA’s demographic profile will impact upon the area’s ability to adapt to climate risks: • City Vision’s analysis of the Blue Mountain LGA’s current demographics indicates that the population is ageing and young people are moving away. Part of the City Vision is to focus on the Blue Mountains LGA as child and family friendly through, for example, encouraging sustainable local economic development and affordable and diverse housing options. How else do we change the demographics and characteristics of the area to encourage younger families to move there? • It is important to deal with the potential impacts of changing demographics, such as a reduction in the amount of low cost housing. • The Blue Mountains LGA has a very effective and cohesive community sector. This is a strength to draw upon. 72 • Sustainable tourism needs to ensure that there is a benefit being received by local people, including long term employment. In relation to tourism issues, there is a fear that unoccupied ‘holiday houses’ drive the cost of housing up and push young people away. Satellite City As a satellite City, the Blue Mountains LGA faces a number of unique problems. Not only will the area be required to work in isolation from other cities, it will also be required to consider the impacts that decisions of people in other areas, most importantly Sydney, have on the Blue Mountains area. The Stakeholder Roundtable identified the following issues surrounding the Blue Mountains area in its context as a satellite city • Themes for a satellite city – influx of people, outflux of younger people; identifying and working within wealth characteristics; ensuring selfreliance of the LGA; and, creating strong community infrastructure. • Good leadership and cooperation will be needed between BMCC and other agencies. Approaches such as a quadruple bottom line framework on risks; good leadership at all levels; and local communities providing their own leadership and vision of a sustainable community to work towards, are required. • BMCC needs to continue community partnerships and to encourage a whole-of-community education on Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment climate change issues. BMCC is the primary conduit for education on these issues in the area. • School communities are already engaged and are a resource to be tapped into. A viable option is a student forum around climate change risks and issues. • Adaptation responses must – be locally-based; include a broader analysis than just the economic and must include local community awareness; develop local industry to find solutions; address equity issues; and, invest in local communities. • Community housing provision and retrofitting of older housing stock – BMCC needs to lead by example in the retrofitting of old buildings; require education of tenants and increasing funding to ensure retrofitting occurs. When will implementation begin? BMCC has a financial issue as a result of rate pegging – how do we encourage local communities to take action? • There are a variety of other needs which the area will need to focus on to encourage self-reliance and sustainability, including the need to : • ensure population increases are sustainable; • be mindful that cost increases will negatively impact on small business (the majority of which who do not own their own property) and to consider 73 incentives to increase small business sustainability; • enact innovation funding to increase energy efficiency and decrease demand; • protect stormwater assets and use environmental flows to support habitat; • invest in National Park infrastructure to support recreation opportunities and local jobs; • future proof major infrastructure; • raise the bar on minimum standards for appliances and provide support for low-income groups to purchase efficient appliances; • regulate to ensure use of energy efficient services such as tanks and solar hot water; and • recognise that changes to demographics will result in changes to school resourcing. The BMCC and Blue Mountains LGA should focus on their community’s ‘proven winners’ including emergency response, community organisations and environment levy in order to bolster their resilience to climate risks. Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 74 Appendix 4 IPCC Storylines Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Storyrlines A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T) or a balance across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies). A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change more fragmented and slower than other storylines. B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels. An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered equally sound. The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC 2007, p. 18) Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 75 Appendix 5 Complete List of Risks Identified Extreme Risks Type of risk Irregularity, difficult to anticipate intense rainfall events and impacts, infrastructure failure precipitation Decreased water quality in natural systems precipitation Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs) precipitation Damage to small farming communities precipitation Habitat loss, reduced species diversity, loss of threatened/endangered species precipitation Increasing maintenance of natural areas, NP, pest management, vermin eradication, weed management precipitation Impacts on waterfalls and creeks – lower flows precipitation Damage to piping from lack of groundwater precipitation Increased building costs associated with any new regulatory requirements regulatory change Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning, community dissatisfaction regulatory change Assets – loss of control regulatory change New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable regulatory change Infrastructure - Less funding available for maintenance carbon constraints Increased insurance extreme weather Retraining staff extreme weather Higher claims for section 44, risks to assets, council buildings, homes extreme weather House damage/ litigation increase from flooding extreme weather Road flooding – accidents, school and work closures, damage to infrastructure, drain blockages, risk to public safety extreme weather More pressure on emergency services extreme weather Housing stability extreme weather Damage to housing and buildings from the impact of wind on fires extreme weather Decreased economic viability as tourism slows tertiary impacts Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 76 Identified Extreme Risks Type of risk Loss of biodiversity temperature Inadequate hospital capacity to deal with heatwave events temperature Higher pressure on electricity services (e.g. air-conditioning) – power failure temperature Public health and OHS impacts on outdoor workers – risk to worker safety, CWP and building maintenance, sporting facilities, skin cancer temperature Ecological changes, native vegetation, weeds, weed infestation, water quality temperature Increased fire frequency and intensity fuelled by winds with fireballs – high intensity fire – impacting on renewal of ecosystems temperature Human safety e.g. fires wipe out walking tracks with safety barriers, injury, death temperature Damage to property and assets temperature Extended fire season – reduced capacity to service – resource stretch, inability for fire fighters to extinguish fires temperature Reduced forward planning –back burning/hazard management temperature Tourist impact – prolonged season reduces tourism, affects image, economic impacts temperature Business – loss of productivity and council operations temperature Ecosystem and tourist features (e.g. Grose Valley, Blue Gum forest) – long term damage due to unnatural fire patterns, maturation cycle of trees not met temperature Pollution impacts (e.g. increases in air conditioning use to filter the air) – lack of visibility, smoke air pollution temperature Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 77 Identified High Risks Type of risk Water table management from bores and heat problems with impacts on ecosystem precipitation More hail events – damage to property and infrastructure, litigation, relocation precipitation Costs associated with retrofit of water supply precipitation Road cracking, building cracking, damage to foundations precipitation Loss of recreation amenity precipitation Damage to stormwater infrastructure precipitation New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable regulatory change Increased fuel prices – reduce travel and visitation, increased food prices, decrease of vehicles on GBH, restricted access to basic services (but better positioned for domestic tourism due to proximity to Sydney) carbon constraints Energy costs for heating during winter in upper mountain and cooling in lower mountain carbon constraints Spreading of weeds extreme weather Damage to property from increased hail intensity and size extreme weather Biodiversity loss extreme weather Roof removals extreme weather Business preparedness / underinsurance for these issues to recover from an event extreme weather Public safety, safety in traffic extreme weather Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall extreme weather Soil impacts – erosion, loss of vegetation, landslides, loss of walking tracks extreme weather Habitat loss – world heritage integrity, reduced tourism extreme weather Impact on recreational facilities and sporting fields – closures, social impacts, increased reliance on reticulated water extreme weather Transport corridors blocked by fallen trees extreme weather Buildings design not built to suit environment extreme weather Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 78 Identified High Risks Type of risk Assets – increased costs due to higher maintenance requirements insurance Increased costs to councils due to extra population moving to BMCC area tertiary impacts Vulnerability of single transport routes temperature Health events (e.g. age, sunburn, less external activities particularly as aging population are requiring more covered recreational areas) temperature Increased water usage – bore and surface temperature Ageing population vulnerable to heat stress temperature People influx from humid areas temperature Loss of public/private gardens due to lack of water – tourism impacts temperature Blocked transport corridors, displaced corridors temperature Fire fighting activities stop other council work occurring temperature Health impacts of asthma patients temperature Community knee jerk reaction – removal of more trees than necessary for protection temperature Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 79 Identified Medium Risks Type of risk Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation precipitation Higher rates of suicide during drought precipitation Tree root growth in periods of low rain and increased heat damaging infrastructure precipitation Costs associated with green power consumption regulatory change Assist residents with take up of rebates and grants e.g. solar power regulatory change Increased costs to councils due to extra responsibilities (e.g. cost shifting from state government, increased training, skill development costs) regulatory change Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning, community dissatisfaction regulatory change Assets – loss of control regulatory change Increasing building costs – reduction in development carbon constraints Council development and monitoring – increased costs and staff, training costs, increased skill development, delays in getting up to speed, more complex assessments, delays in approvals carbon constraints Dam may fail if greater 1:10,000 re spillway e.g. road closures, remove 10 houses, village shopping centre, railway, highway extreme weather Lightning damage to property extreme weather Lightning strikes start bushfires extreme weather Increased costs associated with emergency housing extreme weather Higher funding for RFS, SES extreme weather Cost to clean up downed trees extreme weather Power outages and age of substations to respond extreme weather Inter-agency works are not undertaken taking account of climate change e.g. limited underground electricity cabling with RTA widening of highway extreme weather Council – underwriting more activities, increased risk e.g. community activities insurance Development – reduced opportunities, insurance availability, uninsurable property insurance Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 80 Identified Medium Risks Type of risk Loss of environmental amenity from increased development pressures tertiary impacts Tourism will be affected by fewer snow days (appeal factor) temperature Limited budget to retrofit infrastructure during warmer winters temperature Higher rates of aggravated crime temperature Increased use of swimming pools temperature Increased power outages temperature Impact on business from absentees/ inaccessibility to employment centres – commuting to CBD etc temperature Impact on vegetation from pre-emptive clearing temperature Identified Low Risks Type of risk Buckling of rail tracks temperature Water tanks may be faced with health risks due to quality precipitation Low income households, increased defaults, increased crime carbon constraints Reduced revenue from tips as opened up to allow dumping of debris extreme weather Public relations extreme weather Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 81 Appendix 6 Current Adaptive Measures Adaptation – Building on Current Activities The following sections discuss the current activities which can provide a platform for the BMCC to build appropriate mitigation and adaptation activities to bolster their resilience to climate change. Service Provision and Asset Management The following activities undertaken by BMCC will need particular focus in the context of climate change based on the risks identified in this Report: • Environmental Management Current BMCC environmental management includes stream bank restoration, threatened species recovery, water quality monitoring (for both ecological and recreational purposes), weed control and waste water systems management (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan, pg. 35). • Land Use Management Current BMCC land use management includes development assessment, monitoring and reporting that complies with statutory requirements and in the context of a bushfire prone and environmentally sensitive environment. Bushfire Management The BMCC currently undertakes a range of activities in relation to bushfire management including preparation of bushfire strategic plans, liaison with the Rural Fire Services, fire hazard reduction programs, regulation of private property in relation to bushfire hazards and provision and maintenance of rural fire stations (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan, pg. 58). • • Stormwater and Drainage The BMCC is responsible for the management and maintenance of stormwater drainage in the City including drainage structures and drainage pipes as well as the development of flood plans (BMCC Management Plan, pg. 35). Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Carbon Constraints and Reducing Resource Consumption The BMCC is currently undertaking a range of mitigation activities supporting the reduction of the Council’s and community’s greenhouse gas emissions. BMCC can build upon the skills and attitudes fostered through a focus on mitigation to create a strong adaptation program. The following are some examples of climate change mitigation activities: • BMCC is already a member of the Cities for Climate Protection Program and intends to continue participating in this program. • BMCC has an existing Energy and Water Strategy aimed at reducing community and BMCC GHG emissions. Targets include reducing council energy consumption by 10% 82 by 2012 (based on 2004 baseline date for Cities for Climate Protection), and reducing water consumption by 20% by 2010 (based on 2002-2003 baseline State government data) (BMCC 2008). • BMCC subscribes to Planet Footprint reporting to monitor the Council’s energy and water consumption. • Under State government requirements BMCC is implementing BASIX (Building Sustainability Index). Targets under this program include ensuring new dwellings meet a 40% reduction in water consumption, and in comparison to the average home, a 40% reduction in GHG emissions (BMCC 2008). • BMCC is encouraging sustainable transport options through: • Increasing the length of off-road shared cycleways by 3.6km over 2004 to 2008. • Upgrading Council’s operational fleet euro 3 to euro 4 standard (BMCC 2008) • Expansion of BMCCs internet based services planning and human resource planning, provides a strong framework in which to incorporate climate change risk issues and adaptation strategies. Strategic Planning for the Organisation - Integrated Planning and Reporting The BMCC’s focus on integrated planning including service planning, asset planning, long term financial Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment 83 Climate Risk Pty Limited (Australia) Sydney: Brisbane: +61 2 8243 5767 +61 7 3040 1621 www.climaterisk.net Climate Risk Europe Limited London: + 4 4 752 506 8331 Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment Climate Risk 84