Download A Climate Risk Report - Blue Mountains City Council

A Climate Risk Report
Blue Mountains City Council
Climate Change Risk Assessment
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and government on risk, opportunity and adaptation to climate change.
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This report was prepared by:
Donovan Burton - [email protected]
Erin Laurie - [email protected]
Blue Mountains City Council Project Team
Vicky Frank - [email protected]
Jenny Guice [email protected]
ISBN: 978-0-9804343-6-1
This report has been partly funded by the Australian
Government Department of Climate Change under its Local
Adaptation Pathways Program. It was prepared by Climate
Risk Pty Ltd who owns the copyright for this document.
The attendance and contributions of Blue Mountains City Council staff and other stakeholder representatives
at the climate risk assessment workshops is greatly appreciated. The important input of all workshop
attendees has been fundamental to this report.
Disclaimer:
Climate Risk P/L provides professional services in relation to climate change risks and opportunities. Our technical
and professional staff endeavours to work to international best practice standards using experienced scientists, sector
specialists and associated experts. This document is intended to stimulate ideas and generate discussion for the Blue
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Risk P/L cannot take responsibility for errors or inaccuracies within original source material. This report does not consider
individual investment requirements or the particular needs of individuals, corporations or others and as such the report
should not be relied upon as the basis for specific commercial decisions.
Climate Risk P/L supports a constructive dialogue about the ideas and concepts contained herein.
© Copyright Climate Risk Pty Ltd, 2009. This document is protected by copyright.
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Executive Summary
Climate change is a critical issue for the
global community. It is also of great
significance for local governments.
Climate change is already impacting
on the built and natural environments,
and climate change risks are projected
to intensify and increase in frequency
over the coming decades. Current
science is predicting increased global
temperatures from between 1.8˚C and
6.6˚C by 2100, with current emissions
pathways tracking at the higher end of
these predictions.
the threat that bushfires bring (both
in regards to human safety and the
natural environment), with over 40,000
residents living in a high bushfire risk
area (Risk Frontiers 2007). Other threats
which were identified include the
community’s exposure and vulnerability
to a carbon constrained economy and
damage from extreme weather events.
The Blue Mountains Local Government
Area (LGA)i and the Blue Mountains
City Council (BMCC)ii currently face a
range of issues which will be further
exacerbated by climate change. Climate
Risk P/L has been tasked by the BMCC
to undertake a review of how climate
change may impact on the BMCC and
the community which it represents.
The findings in this report show that
although the Blue Mountains LGA is
not a coastal community, and therefore
will not face direct coast-based impacts
such as storm surge and sea level rise, it
is nonetheless likely to face an array of
challenges.
The community values its natural
assets, with the Blue Mountains
Community Survey (2007) indicating
that protecting the environment
was “the most important issue of
concern” to residents and “the natural
environment is the most valued thing
about living in the Blue Mountains”
(BMCC Community Survey pp. 15 &
97). The survey also identified the
maintenance and conservation of
bushland as the resident’s second
highest priority for the coming 5-10
years. With an aging population, a high
commuter workforce, and a constricted
rate base the community’s exposure
to the risks and demands to protect the
natural environment introduces a range
of challenges for the Blue Mountains
City Council.
Impacts on the Blue Mountains
Local Government Area
Impacts on the Blue Mountains
City Council
The Blue Mountains region has a
large urban – bush interface which
provides unique commercial and
lifestyle opportunities. However it is
this close proximity and reliance on
the area’s natural environment which
also presents the most challenging
risks under climate change. The most
significant risk facing the region is
It is inevitable that climate change will
place a strain on the financial viability
of BMCC. It is possible that BMCC has
assets which may become stranded (for
example, through regulatory mapping
and/or insurability)iii. BMCC will need to
make challenging decisions regarding
the cost-benefit of early, mid and late
term adaptation options. Increased
i
The “Blue Mountains Local Government Area (LGA)” refers to the geographical location, and the community which reside in this area.
ii
The “Blue Mountains City Council (BMCC)” refers to the Council entity which represents the area and community of the LGA.
iii
Stranded assets refer to assets that are reduced in value (or functionality) due to regulatory change and/or climate change hazard. The asset becomes
stranded when costs associated with retrofitting the building to comply or adapt exceeds Council’s ability or willingness to pay.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
i
insurance, energy and maintenance
costs are virtually certain, and will place
strains on BMCC’s ability to provide
other adaptive measures to support their
community (for example, the advocacy
for, and provision of, infrastructure for
non-car based transport options).
Many of the impacts or associated
actions are likely to significantly
increase, especially in relation to
maintenance and litigation. Even
with appropriate adaptation in place,
expenses will still increase with climate
change; however, there is evidence to
suggest that these can be substantially
reduced. Also, it is important to
remember that the appropriate
management of costs and impending
hazards associated with climate change
in the short term has the potential to
result in financial benefit and resiliency
in the long term.
For BMCC, cost implications are clear as
finances will have to be found to:
•
upgrade capital stock and systems
to be climate resilient;
•
cover higher operational and
maintenance costs; and,
•
cover higher insurance costs and
potential liabilities.
Council expenditure runs into the tens
of millions and with limited potential
to expand the rate base any increase
in costs from climate change hazards
(or associated strategies) potentially
can dilute the viability of services
to community. Currently the BMCC
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
spends $843,000 on insurance; over
$1.8 million in electricity, heating and
street lighting; and $52,000 on State
emergency services (BMCC 2008). All of
these are likely to increase significantly
as a result of responses to climate
change (e.g. emissions trading, changes
to insurance, etc). The Australian
Local Government Association
estimated that the anticipated Carbon
Pollution Reduction Scheme may
increase average council operational
costs by approximately 1.8%. For
the Blue Mountains this equates to
approximately $1.5 million per annum
increase in operational expenditure.
This increase in expenditure has
direct consequences on Council’s
ability to fund other activities which
may contribute towards BMCC and
the community’s resilience to climate
change hazards.
Some of this additional income may
need to be drawn from the BMCC rate
base, or alternatively from State or
Federal Government investments in
adaptation measures.
Workshop Results
Through workshops with BMCC staff,
102 risks associated with climate change
have been identified (see Figure i) for
the BMCC and LGA. Of these risks, 36
were identified as posing an extreme
risk, 34 a high risk, 28 a medium risk
and 5 a low risk. Information relating
to the weighting for risk priority values
is provided in Figure 2 (page 4). Many
of the extreme risks are associated
with bushfire, biodiversity and impacts
on tourism, as well as general issues
ii
Tertiary
3%
Secondary
18 %
Figure i. Risk summary
by category. Of the
total 102 risks identified
in the workshop 80
were primary hazards,
19 secondary and 3
tertiary.
Primary
79%
associated with increased operational
costs.
A roundtable discussion was held
with key stakeholders from the region.
Throughout this report, details from
these discussions are provided in the
relevant sections (see Appendix 3 for
detailed notes of this discussion).
How the Climate Change Risks are
Presented
Within each of these hazard categories,
the risks are then summarised in a
quadruple bottom line framework:
•
Governance – impacts related
to effective stewardship and
civic leadership, compliance
and accountability, community
participation, resource and asset
management
•
Environment – impacts related to
natural assets including plants,
animals, ecological communities,
atmosphere, water, ecosystem
processes
•
Social – impacts related to
community health and wellbeing,
social connections, population
demographics, skills, knowledge
•
Economic – impacts on healthy
economic activity, diversity of
employment opportunities and
The risks in this report have been
organised based on hazard categories:
•
Primary – temperature, precipitation,
extreme weather events
•
Secondary – regulation and
policy change, insurance, carbon
constraints
•
Tertiary - behavioural change, autoadaptation and confluence of risks
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
iii
prosperity of the community
The summary is then followed by a
ranked listing of the risks based on their
risk priority value rating (as presented in
Figure 2, p. 4)
Future Steps - Adaptation
1. Develop a climate change working
group and supporting resources.
2. Add climate risks to the BMCC risk
register.
3. Undertake detailed assessment of
high priority risks.
After the identification and discussion
of climate change risks for BMCC and
Blue Mountains LGA, the next step is to
develop and implement an adaptation
program to bolster the resilience of the
area and its community.
4. Engage with insurers to discuss risk
management and cover.
BMCC is already undertaking a range of
activities akin to adaptation measures,
such as bushfire management and
biodiversity protection, which provide
a strong platform from which to expand
upon and develop a comprehensive
adaptation program. There are various
steps that BMCC can undertake to help
improve its resilience to climate change.
6. Increase and maintain adaptive
capacity.
Climate Risk P/L has identified ten
opportunities for BMCC’s consideration:
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
5. Embed climate change planning into
organisational business planning
processes.
7. Representation to state and federal
governments.
8. Identify potential cocktail effects.
9. Explore partnerships for economic
resilience.
10. Raise community awareness and
support community initiatives.
iv
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction
1
2.0 Methods
3
3.0 Climate Change Overview
5
3.1 Climate Change across the Globe
3.2 Climate Change in Australia
3.3 Climate Change and the Blue Mountains
3.4 Adaptation and Mitigation
5
8
8
10
4.0 Climate Change Hazards
11
4.1 An Introduction to Hazards
11
5.0 Primary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
13
5.1 Temperature
5.2 Precipitation
5.3 Extreme Weather Events
13
23
27
6.0 Secondary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
35
6.1 Summary of Regulation and Policy Change Related Risks
6.2 Summary of Insurance Related Risks
6.3 Summary of Carbon Constraint Related Risks
6.4 Local Government and Climate Change Litigation
6.5 Stakeholder Roundtable
36
38
41
43
44
7.0 Tertiary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
49
8.0 Summary of Risks Identified
51
8.1 Confluence of Risks with BMCC’s Current Risk Register
52
9.0 Conclusion: Moving Forward to Adaptation
55
9.1 Adaptation – Next Steps
55
10.0 References
58
Appendix 1 BMCC Services
Appendix 2 BMCC Staff Survey and Workshop
Appendix 3 Roundtable Stakeholder Discussion
Appendix 4 IPCC Storylines
Appendix 5 Complete List of Risks
Appendix 6 Current Adaptive Measures
61
67
70
75
76
82
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
1.0 Introduction
Climate change is a serious issue. It
is already impacting on our built and
natural environments and climate
change risks are projected to intensify
and increase in frequency. Current
science is predicting increased global
temperatures from between 1.8˚C and
6.6˚C by 2100, with current emissions
pathways tracking at the higher end of
the predictions. The impacts of low,
mid or high range projections will result
in massive international and national
challenges by mid 21st Century to both
reduce emissions and adapt to the
unavoidable impacts that are already
locked in.
However it is also important to
recognise that the climate change
challenge does not happen in isolation
of other events. Climate change can
exacerbate other challenges, such
as market collapse, pandemic risks,
and geopolitical instability. Current
challenges for the LGA are outlined
in the document Towards a More
Sustainable Blue Mountains - A Map for
Action 2000-2025 (see Box 1).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
In this context BMCC provides a
significant number of services for
the community (see Appendix 1).
Climate change will present BMCC with
significant challenges over the coming
decades in services delivery.
Local Governments will bear the brunt
of climate impacts and are therefore at
the forefront of developing associated
management strategies. As such, the
Australian Government Department of
Climate Change has provided funding
for a selection of councils across
Australia to undertake a preliminary
climate change risk assessment through
the Local Adaptation Pathways Program
(LAPP).
The Blue Mountains City Council
was one of the councils successful
in obtaining funding early in 2008.
Subsequently, this report has been
funded by this Federal Government
process. It is envisaged that this
report will prove a crucial milestone in
identifying opportunities for creating
a more resilient region and local
community in the Blue Mountains.
1
Box 1. Current challenges for the LGA
City for Visitors
The Blue Mountains is justly regarded as a special place. The spectacular natural
beauty of the Blue Mountains contributes immeasurably to the cultural setting
and economy of the area. Being a tourist destination of national and international
significance, the Blue Mountains is a City for visitors. Although tourism continues to
constitute a major sector of the local economy, it also places development pressure on
ecosystems, infrastructure, resources and local amenity.
City on the Edge
The Blue Mountains is a City on the edge of Australia’s largest Metropolitan Region.
Retaining and reinforcing a Blue Mountains sense of place and identity, is perhaps the
biggest challenge for the City on the Edge.
City in a World Heritage National Park
The City’s location within a spectacular World Heritage National Park not only
places limits on the land available for living, but also places responsibilities on the
community, Council and other agencies to ensure that impacts of urban development
are carefully managed and that the internationally recognised values of this natural
environment are protected.
City at Risk
The Blue Mountains is exposed to a range of emergency risks. In particular, the City is
highly bush fire prone with settlement located on exposed ridges in close proximity to
a combustible natural ecosystem. This poses threats to life and property, and creates
a range of challenges in balancing the competing objectives of bush fire management
and maintaining the environmental values of the Blue Mountains. In addition, with the
linear settlement pattern access is restricted to a single rail and road corridor, which
poses constraints in the event of evacuation or when the corridor is blocked by either
natural or man-made hazards.
City as a Bridge
The Blue Mountains provides the land for a nationally significant transport corridor
bridging the metropolitan and coastal east with the rural central western hinterland of
New South Wales. The transport corridor continues to play a vital role for transferring
goods and people across the State. However, the Great Western Highway and the
Railway also provide the means for local travel between towns and villages dispersed
along 100 kilometres of narrow mountainous ridgeline.
City Divided
The City is divided physically, economically and socially. The dispersed population
is clustered in 27 separate settlements along a 100 kilometre ridgeline, posing
challenges for the allocation of resources. Access between and across townships is
limited by the Great Western Highway and the Western Railway line. This reduces
connectivity and creates obstacles to movement within most towns. On a range
of indicators including income, health status and educational levels, the Upper
Mountains remains disadvantaged compared to the Lower Mountains.
Source: Blue Mountains City Council 2004, Towards a More Sustainable Blue Mountains
- A Map for Action 2000-2025, NSW, Australia, pp 8-10, accessed at http://www.
sustainablebluemountains.net.au/imagesDB/resources/Book_and_Map%281%29.pdf on
05.02.09.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
2
2.0 Methods
This climate change risk assessment
follows the AS/NZS 4360 standard (as
directed by the Australian Government
Department of Climate Change for the
funding requirements of this LAPP
project).
1. Establish the context
2. Identify the risks
3. Analyse the risks
4. Evaluate the Risks
5. Treat the risks
The risk assessment process for
this project followed the Australian
Government Guide “Climate Change
Impacts & Risk Management: A
Guide for Business and Government”
(Department of Environment and
Heritage 2006). This is a scoping climate
change risk assessment and forms the
bulk of the first five steps in the risk
assessment process. Ultimately the
process includes the following steps:
While the report does broadly discuss
adaptation options, Climate Risk P/L has
not been tasked to investigate treating
the risks in this particular project
(Figure 1). For more information on this
risk methodology see Department of
Environment and Heritage (2006).
Figure 1. Risk
assessment process
The diagram below
outlines the risk
assessment process
used in this project
based on the AS/NZ
4360 standard (DEH
2006).
Communicate and Consult
Establish the
context
Identify the
risks
Analyse the
risks
Evaluate the
risks
Treat the
risks
Objectives
Stakeholders
Criteria
Key elements
Climate scenarios
What can
happen
Review controls
Likelihoods
Consequences
Level of risk
Evaluate risks
Rank risks
Screen minor
risks
Identify options
Select the best
Develop plans
Implement
How could it
happen
Monitor and Review
Considered in this report
Not considered in this report
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
3
A considerable proportion of the
risks identified in this scoping risk
assessment arise from an internal risks
assessment workshop undertaken by
Climate Risk P/L on the 8th September
2008 with BMCC staff (Appendix 2).
In these workshops, participants
(with support from Climate Risk P/
L) were tasked with identifying the
probability and likelihood of certain
primary, secondary and tertiary climate
change hazards. The resulting output
is a priority ranking of risks ranging
from low to extreme. The qualitative
weighting of these priorities follows the
DCC workbook (DCC 2006) (Figure 2).
A roundtable discussion with external
stakeholders was also undertaken by
Climate Risk P/L on the 28th October
2008 (Appendix 3 provides details
of this roundtable discussion). The
results from the workshop and
roundtable discussion, together with
Council information and national and
international academic literature form
this discussion of climate change risks
for BMCC and the LGA.
Limitations of this study
This study is by no means an exhaustive
assessment of all of the climate change
risks facing the Blue Mountains LGA
and BMCC. This study relies on publicly
available climate change data, which is
limited. Ultimately this report identifies
potential climate change risks within the
context of currently available climate
change data.
Extreme priority risks demand urgent attention
at the most senior level and can not be simply
accepted as part of routine operations without
executive sanction.
High priority risks are the most severe that can
be accepted as a part of routine operations
without executive sanction but they will be the
responsibility of the most senior operational
management.
Figure 2. Risk priority
values
These risk priority
values are based on the
Australian Government
Guide “Climate
Change Impacts and
Risk Management: A
guide for Business and
Government” (DEH
2006)
Medium priority risks can be expected to form
part of routine operations but they will be
explicitly assigned to relevant managers for
action and maintained under review.
Low priority risks will be maintained under
review but it is expected that existing controls
will be sufficient.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
4
3.0 Climate Change Overview
3.1 Climate Change across the
Globe
There is now overwhelming evidence
that global average temperatures are
increasing as a result of anthropogenic
interference of the earth’s climatic
system (Stern 2006; Pittock 2005;
Stefan 2006). The latest data reveals
an alarming trend in the rate of carbon
emissions across the globe, which is
contributing significantly to global
warming. Data released by the Global
Carbon Project (2008) indicates that,
since the year 2000, anthropogenic CO2
emissions have grown at a rate four
times faster than during the previous
decade and are exceeding the worst
case scenario projected by the IPCC.
On average the world is currently 0.74 oC
warmer than it was a century ago (IPCC
2007) (Figure 3). Current international
negotiations are attempting to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions to a level that
is significantly below the 1990 levels
(up to 80% by 2050). However, the latest
data suggest that CO2 emissions are
increasing faster than ever. Primarily
this is as a result of the rapid economic
growth experienced by China and
India, and the declining efficiency of
the world’s natural carbon sinks (Global
Climate project 2008; Canadell et al.
2007).
The Earth’s global temperature has
warmed significantly over the past 100
years (IPCC 2007). Furthermore the rate
of change has not been uniform across
the globe, with the northern latitudes
seeing far greater warming than other
regions. Evidence that an increase
in the earth’s global temperature is
already affecting terrestrial biological
systems is mounting, with changes
being recorded in numerous scientific
publications and international reports
(IPCC 2007; Rosenzweig et al. 2008).
The fourth assessment report by the
IPCC Working Group II has warned that
the consequences of climate change
– including sea level rise and increased
frequency and intensity of weather
events – will result in ‘adverse effects on
human and natural systems’ (IPCC 2007,
p. 52).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
5
0.6
Figure 3. Evidence of
global warming
0.4
Temperature
anomaly (oC)
There is a discernable
increase in global
temperatures since
1900 as the black
line with multi-year
smoothing shows
(Brohan et al. 2006).
0.2
0.0
- 0.2
- 0.4
- 0.6
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
Regardless of existing efforts to curb
greenhouse gas emissions it is now
widely accepted that global world
temperatures will continue to rise. This
is because we have the impacts that are
already ‘locked in’ due to the existing
carbon loading in the atmosphere and
climate inertia. The latest projections
by the IPCC suggest that average
global temperatures will increase by
approximately 1.8oC and 4.4 oC by 2100
(IPCC 2007) (Figure 4). However, some
scientists, including James Hansen,
Director of the NASA Goddard Institute
for Space Studies, believe that these
projections are conservative and predict
global temperatures may rise by up to
6oC by the end of the century (Hansen et
al. in press)1.
Although these figures may appear
insignificant, it is critical to note that
an increase of only 2oC can result
in devastating consequences to all
inhabitants of this planet. As shown
by Garnaut (2008, p.100), up to 2.1oC
warming may mean 3% to 17% of the
world’s species become extinct and a 1%
1
to 31% likelihood of irreversible melting
of the Greenland Ice Sheet (leading to
significant sea level rise) (Figure 5). An
increase of 1.5oC to 2.5oC is also likely to
have negative impacts on ecosystems
services (e.g. water and food supply),
and have serious consequences for
human and animal health (IPCC 2007,
p.26). Some argue that 2oC of average
warming leads to the beginnings of
“runaway” climate change, where
positive feedback mechanisms are
triggered (such as the drying of the
Amazon Rainforest or melting of
permafrost), leading to the realisation of
higher end climate change projections
(i.e. 6oC increase of 1990 levels and up to
2 metres sea level rise by 2100).
Although there are existing international
discussions continuing to identify
ways to limit and contain average
global warming, the global greenhouse
emissions continue to rise. This pattern
is projected to continue without a
concerted global effort to contain
emissions growth (Figure 6).
Hansen et al. (in press) and Rind (2008) argue that standard climate models (including the widely used Charney Sensitivity model) do not consider
significant factors such as changes in glaciation and vegetation and the ability of oceans to absorb CO 2, which diminishes as sea water temperature rises.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
6
Figure 4. Future
warming by 2100
Projected surface
warming for end of
21st Century (IPCC
2007); temperatures are
relative to the period
1980-1999.
Extreme climate response or impact
450
550
No mitigation
1.5 (0.8-2.1) C
2 (1.1-2.7) C
5.1 (3-6.6) oC
(a) Species at risk of extinction
7 (3-13)%
12 (4-25)%
88 (33-98)%
(b) Likelihood of initiating large-scale melt
of the Greenland ice sheet
10 (1-31)%
26 (3-59)%
100 (71-100)%
(c) Area of reefs above critical limits for
coral bleaching
34 (0-68)%
65 (0-81)%
99 (85-100)%
(d) Threshold for initiating accelerated
disintegration of the west Antarctic ice
sheet
No
No
Yes
(e) Threshold for changes to the variability
of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation
No
No
Yes
(f) Threshold where terrestrial sinks could
become carbon sources
Possibly
Possibly
Yes
Temperature outcomes
o
o
Estimated lower threshold exceeded by 2100
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Figure 5. Critical
thresholds
Summary of extreme
climate responses,
high-consequence
outcomes and ranges
for tipping points for the
three emissions cases
by 2100 (Garnaut 2008,
p.102).
7
160
Figure 6. Global
emissions pathways
giam
120
a1fi
a2
GtCO2-eq
a1b
b2
80
Recent ABARE
modelling shows that
current emission rates
(GIAM) are outpacing
previous IPCC
projections.
a1t
b1
40
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
3.2 Climate Change in Australia
Australia is vulnerable to a changing
climate (Table 1). The past century has
seen Australia experience an average
warming of 0.7°C and a significant
reduction in coastal precipitation
(Preston & Jones 2006). This warming
trend is set to continue with predictions
that by 2030 average Australian
temperatures could increase from 0.4°C
to 2°C above 1990 temperatures and 1°C
to 6°C by 2070 (Preston & Jones 2006).
According to the Australian Department
of Climate Change, climate change will
place considerable strain on Australia’s
coastal communities, including
through sea level rise, increased storm
surges, changes to marine and coastal
biodiversity, and changes to fisheries
(Voice et al. 2006, p.2).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
3.3 Climate Change and the Blue
Mountains
Under a high emissions scenario it is
predicted that the Blue Mountains may
experience:
•
Increased temperatures of 2°C by
2050
•
Decreased annual rainfall – 1-2% by
2050
•
Increased hail size
•
Increased summer wind speed – 5%
by 2030 and 10% by 2050
The specific climate change impacts are
discussed in more detail in the following
chapter (Chapter 4).
8
Table 1. Expected impacts for Australia with increasing temperatures (CSIRO 2006).
Temperature
Increase (oC)
Projected Impacts
•
•
•
•
10–40% shrinkage of snow-covered area in the Australian Alps
18–60% decline in 60-day snow cover in the Australian Alps
Bleaching and damage to the Great Barrier Reef equivalent to 1998 and 2002 in up to 50% of
years
60% of the Great Barrier Reef is regularly bleached
Habitat is lost for 14% of Victoria’s marine invertebrates
50% decrease in habitat for vertebrates in northern Australia tropics
<5% loss of core habitat for Victorian and montane tropical vertebrate species
28% of Dryandra species’ core habitat is significantly reduced in SW Australia
4% of Acacia species’ core habitat is significantly reduced in SW Australia
63% decrease in Golden Bowerbird habitat in N Australia
Habitat for 3 frog and 15 threatened/endangered mammals in W Australia is lost
or restricted
50% decrease in montane tropical rainforest area in N Australia
1-2
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Up to 58–81% of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached every year
Hard coral reef communities are widely replaced by algal communities
90% decrease in core habitat for vertebrates in northern Australia tropics
5–10% loss of core habitat for Victorian and montane tropical vertebrate species
88% of butterfly species’ core habitat decreases
66% of core habitat for Dryandra species is significantly reduced in SW Australia
100% of Acacia species are eliminated in SW Australia
2-3
•
•
•
•
•
97% of the Great Barrier Reef is bleached every year
10–40% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species
92% of butterfly species’ core habitat decreases
98% decrease in Bowerbird habitat in N Australia
80% loss of freshwater wetlands in Kakadu (30 cm sea level rise)
3-4
•
•
•
•
•
•
Catastrophic mortality of coral species annually
95% decrease in distribution of Great Barrier Reef species
65% loss of Great Barrier Reef species in the Cairns region
20–85% shrinkage of total snow-covered area in the Australian Alps
38–96% decline in 60-day snow cover in the Australian Alps
30–70% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species
4-5
•
60–90% loss of core habitat for Victoria and montane tropical vertebrate species
>5
•
90–100% of core habitat lost for most Australian vertebrates
<1
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
9
3.4 Adaptation and Mitigation
Strategies to deal with climate change
generally consist of two elements:
adaptation and mitigation (Pittock
2005, p.7). The IPCC defines adaptation
as an ‘adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities’ ( Metz et al.
2001, p.708). This definition is expanded
on by Adger, et al. (2005) who state that
‘adaptation can involve both building
adaptive capacity … and implementing
adaptation decisions’ (p.77). Mitigation
is defined by the IPCC (Metz et al. 2001,
p. 716) as ‘an anthropogenic intervention
to reduce the sources or enhance the
sinks of greenhouse gases.’
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
In a summary for the IPCC, Banuri et al.
(2001, p.52) advocate that adaptation
and mitigation must be considered
together in any climate change
response. The connection between
adaptation and mitigation is often
overlooked. Environmental lag time
means that climate change is already
here and that we have to adapt to current
and future changes that are already
locked in. Mitigation strategies attempt
to reduce the severity of the impacts and
ensure that any climatic change occurs
within our capacity to adapt (Pittock
2005).
10
4.0 Climate Change Hazards
4.1 An Introduction to Hazards
For this report a hazard is identified as:
climate change related event, series
of events or variation, or an action
in response to these, which has
the potential to result in a material
economic, social or environmental
loss. (Climate Risk 2008)
For further clarification we present the
climate change hazards in three distinct
themes of impacts – primary, secondary
and tertiary – which are explained in
detail below (Figure 7).
To identify primary climate change
hazards specialists utilise projections
from Global Circulation Models (GCM).
Although the science behind climate
change projections is improving
there are still a range of uncertainties.
There are twenty GCMs that are
used throughout the world and each
of these have their own strengths
and weaknesses for climate change
variables and spatial coverage. Further
uncertainties arrive when the GCMs
are downscaled to the regional level.
However, as long as the uncertainties
are recognised, GCMs provide a useful
exploration into the possible future
climate change scenarios.
Projections of climate change beyond
2030 are highly dependent on the global
emissions pathway (see Appendix
4). At present the world’s emissions
growth is about 3.0% per year. This is
well above the A1FI (IPCC worst case)
scenario of 2.5%. According to Garnaut
(2008), the emissions trajectory for
what he describes as the Platinum Age
Primary Hazards (direct physical effects)
examples:
1. Temperature
2. Precipitation
3. Drought
4. Wind
5. Fire weather (increased bushfire conditions)
6. Sea-level rise
7. Severe weather (e.g. hail and lightning)
Figure 7. Climate
change risk categories
Climate change impacts
can are categorised in
this report into Primary,
Secondary and Tertiary
climate change hazards.
Secondary Hazards (regulatory) examples:
1. Hazards from industry regulation
2. Carbon constraints and markets
3. Hazard mapping
4. Building and infrastructure standards
5. Insurance industry regulatory change
Tertiary Hazards (social response) examples:
1. Changing consumer demographics
2. Changing consumer geographical distribution
3. Changing consumer spending patterns
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
11
is projected to see global emissions
increase by 3.1% per year. As most
current models follow the A2 scenario
(of 2% growth per annum) the IPCC
worst case scenario is looking more like
being the best case.
The following commentary highlights
the primary, secondary and tertiary
hazards that the Blue Mountains LGA
and BMCC face. The risk rankings
(according to the AS / NZS 4360
standard) are presented at the end of
each climate change variable. These
risk rankings are based on the results
from the BMCC workshop findings (see
methodology section for a discussion on
what each level of risk relates to).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
12
5.0 Primary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
The key primary hazards for the Blue
Mountains Region include:
5.1- Increased temperature (including
changes to the mean, number of days
over 35°C, and bushfire weather).
5.2 - Precipitation change (including
changes to the mean, and daily/hourly
rainfall intensity).
5.3 - Extreme weather events (including
storms and hail).
5.1 Temperature
In the Blue Mountains LGA, increased
temperatures will result in a number of
associated threats, most significantly:
•
increased bush fire intensity;
•
longer fire weather seasons;
•
increased number of bush fire
events;
•
significant threats to some species
in the World Heritage Area;
•
possible increased demand to
develop the area due to an influx of
people from more humid areas;
•
damage to agricultural products;
•
damage to visual amenity and
maintenance of open space; and,
•
increased insurance costs.
•
strain on health service;
•
a range of bushfire specific risks;
•
impacts on tourism;
•
loss of biodiversity;
•
smoke and air pollution;
•
health effects on the aging
population;
•
risks to Council staff working
outdoors;
•
population shift from other areas
outside of the Blue Mountains;
•
loss of gardens; and,
•
impacts on transport routes.
A summary of these results, and other
identified risks, can be found below (see
Table 2).
Workshop Findings
In the workshop a number of
temperature related risks were
identified. Those which were
considered to be of most significance
were:
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
13
Summary of Temperature Related
Risks
The following diagram presents
temperature related risks based on a
quadruple bottom line framework. This
provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Governance
Figure 8. Risk
Summary: Temperature
related risk priorities
according to quadruple
bottom line framework.
Power failure
OHS exposure
Bushfire management
Weed management
Resource strain
Public safety
Damage to assets (bushfire)
Key
Social
Limited rail
Population influx
Transport management
Garden & park management
Interruption to council activities
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Increased crime
Power outages
Health impacts
Aging population vulnerability
Community overreaction (eg felling trees)
Public safety
Hospital service strain
Damage to property and assets (bushfire)
Reduced jobs (from reduced tourism)
Retrofit buildings
Increased swimming pool use
Climate Risk
Reduced tourism
Disrupted transport routes
Economic
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Weeds
Bushfire
Environment
14
Temperature Related Issues
Loss of biodiversity
Inadequate hospital capacity to deal with heatwave events
Risk Rating
Extreme
Extreme
Higher pressure on electricity services (e.g. air-conditioning) – power
failure
Extreme
Public health and OHS impacts on outdoor workers – risk to worker
safety, CWP and building maintenance, sporting facilities, skin cancer
Extreme
Ecological changes, native vegetation, weeds, weed infestation, water
quality
Extreme
Increased fire frequency and intensity fuelled by winds with fireballs
– high intensity fire – impacting on renewal of ecosystems
Extreme
Human safety e.g. fires wipe out walking tracks with safety barriers,
injury, death
Extreme
Damage to property and assets
Extreme
Extended fire season – reduced capacity to service – resource stretch,
inability for fire fighters to extinguish fires
Extreme
Reduced forward planning –back burning/hazard management
Extreme
Tourist impact – prolonged season reduces tourism, affects image,
economic impacts
Extreme
Business – loss of productivity and council operations
Extreme
Ecosystem and tourist features (e.g. Grose Valley, Blue Gum forest)
– long term damage due to unnatural fire patterns, maturation cycle of
trees not met
Extreme
Pollution impacts (e.g. increases in air conditioning use to filter the air)
– lack of visibility, smoke air pollution
Extreme
Vulnerability of single transport routes
High
Health events (e.g. age, sunburn, less external activities particularly as
aging population are requiring more covered recreational areas)
High
Increased water usage – bore and surface
High
Ageing population vulnerable to heat stress
High
People influx from humid areas
High
Loss of public/private gardens due to lack of water – tourism impacts
High
Blocked transport corridors, displaced corridors
High
Fire fighting activities stop other council work occurring
High
Health impacts of asthma patients
High
Community knee jerk reaction – removal of more trees than necessary for
protection
High
Tourism will be affected by fewer snow days (appeal factor)
Medium
Limited budget to retrofit infrastructure during warmer winters
Medium
Higher rates of aggravated crime
Medium
Increased use of swimming pools
Medium
Increased power outages
Medium
Impact on business from absentees/ inaccessibility to employment
centres – commuting to CBD etc
Medium
Impact on vegetation from preemptive clearing
Medium
Buckling of rail tracks
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Table 2. Risks,
and their
rankings, for
issues relating
to temperature.
Low
15
Box 2. Stakeholder Roundtable Discussions on Temperature
Participants at the Stakeholder Roundtable saw bushfire as a significant
threat. It was recognised that the BMCC and associated stakeholders are
leaders in dealing with bushfire risks. Discussions at the roundtable brought
forward some key ideas and questions:
•
An increase in fire intensity and fire frequency means a large increase in
threat. Do increased fire intensity and frequency go ‘hand-in-hand’?
*
Fire patterns generally differ with each fire, therefore intensity and
frequency may be linked.
*
There may be a species shift towards ‘fire loving’ species which burn
hotter and will lead to more intense fires.
•
The Blue Mountains community is recognised as a leader in responding
to fire threat. It is important that the community and BMCC work
together to plan for changing fire threats.
*
Adaptation of hazard reduction measures to suit changing threats,
including in areas such as community education, dry fire fighting (to
respond to a decrease in available water), and remote fire fighting
teams.
*
It is important that the community plans thoroughly for fire – there
must be community education, agency cooperation and individuals
need to take responsibility for their own bushfire action plans.
*
BMCC must assist the community in changing its expectations of
how it will live with the environment. For example, development
on the bush interface will no longer be acceptable when we are
managing our risks. There is the need to consider how to protect
world heritage values as well as the urban environment.
See Appendix 3 for detailed notes of the external workshop
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
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5.1.1 Temperature Related Discussion
5.1.1.1 Heatwaves
Probably the most significant
temperature related hazard is the
change in return rate of extreme heat
days (or ‘heatwave’). The definition of a
heatwave differs across the globe, but
generally it:
can be defined as a prolonged period
of excessive heat. The difficulty in
defining a heat wave in Australia has
been in establishing an appropriate
heat index with an acceptable event
threshold and duration, and relating
it to the climatology of the area under
investigation. (BoM 2008)
Heatwaves have caused more fatalities
than any other natural hazard in
Australia (Granger & Haye 2000).
According to Andrews (in Granger &
Haye 2000), between 1907 and 1992, a
total of 3843 heatwave deaths occurred
in Australia, 33% of which were in
NSW. This return rate may decrease
(occur more often) with the onset
of climate change. Recent science
suggests that increased global average
temperatures may lead to “more
intense, longer lasting, and/ or more
frequent” heatwaves (Meehl & Tabaldi
2004, p.994). Heatwaves can have
serious human health ramifications,
especially on the elderly and infirm. It
can also place considerable strain on
infrastructure, energy supply as well
as increase livestock and crop losses
(Granger & Hayne 2000).
The recent (January 2009) heat wave in
Victoria and South Australia highlighted
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
the impacts that heat waves can have on
human health. According to Professor
Nicholls of Monash University late
January saw a significant heatwave
death toll of “100 at least in Melbourne
and more than 200 across south-eastern
Australia” (The Age 2009). Furthermore
during this heat wave the combination
of increased demand and energy loss on
transmission lines resulted in a failure of
energy supply. During this period there
were rolling blackouts which impacted
on businesses and residents.
5.1.1.2 Bushfire
It is well documented that increased
temperatures are associated with
increased bushfire danger (William et
al. 2001; Hennessy et al. 2007; Pitman
et al. 2007). A recent Australian study
predicted that under an A2 emissions
scenario there could be up to a 100%
increase in bushfire and grassland fires.
In relation to the Greater Blue Mountains
World Heritage Area (GBMWHA), it
is predicted that the number of ‘very
high’ to ‘extreme’ bushfire days could
increase by up to 75% by 2050, with
up to a 25% increase in area burned
(Department of Climate Change 2008).
The increasing popularity of rural
residential living, as well as the
preservation of natural areas within
urban developments, poses an
increasing level of risk (Granger et
al. 2003). In the US, bush fire models
show that if there is a doubling of CO2
in the earth’s atmosphere, resultant
impacts would include decreased
fire containment, increased area
at risk of burning, increased costs
17
for containment and, ultimately,
increased economic losses (Mills 2002).
Consequently, the negative social
outcomes that may follow include loss
of property, damage to forests and
wildlife, loss of life, loss of tourism,
respiratory health problems, and a
greater likelihood of business disruption
(Epstein and Mills 2006). Figure 9
highlights a Californian example which
illustrates the link between increasing
temperature and the extent of bushfire.
as threatened (BMCC 2008). The
climate change risks may be especially
challenging for some of the rarer
species:
More extreme and more frequent
wildfires are likely to have a major
impact on the fire-sensitive rainforest
and alpine forest communities and
the organisms that they support.
The rainforests of the Great Blue
Mountain World Heritage Area (WHA)
provide a microclimate for primitive
plant species with Gondwanian
affinities, such as the Wollemi Pine
(Wollemia nobili). This species,
originally thought to be extinct, is
found in only one specific location in
this WHA. Although the effect of fire
on the Wollemi Pine remains largely
unknown, catastrophic fire events
could threaten remaining stands.
(Heath et al. 2008)
The Blue Mountains natural
environment is also at risk from bushfire
due to its high diversity of habitats
and dominance of fire-prone eucalypt
forests (Hammill 2007). Despite many
of the species being resilient to fire,
higher fire frequencies may cause local
extinction and irreparable changes
to the composition of the vegetation
(Hammill 2007). In the Blue Mountains
there a 85 plant and animal species
and 7 ecological communities listed
Figure 9. Relationship
between temperature
and bushfire
70 000
60 000
Large wildfires
in California and
neighbouring states
vs average monthly
maximum temperature,
1980-99 (from
Westerling and Bryant
2008).
50 000
Area burned
(hectares)
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Maximum temperature (oC)
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
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Box 3. Temperature - The Blue Mountains Context
The Blue Mountains community faces competing challenges in balancing
objectives of bushfire management and maintaining the environmental
values of the Blue Mountains. With the higher bushfire risk due to climate
change, these challenges will increase.
The Blue Mountains Community Survey (2007) indicated that protecting
the environment was “the most important issue of concern” to residents
and “the natural environment is the most valued thing about living in the
Blue Mountains” (BMCC Community Survey p. 15 & 97).
The survey also
identified the maintenance and conservation of bushland as the resident’s
second highest priority for the coming 5-10 years.
The Blue Mountains region has a large urban – bush interface which provides
unique commercial and lifestyle opportunities. However it is this close
proximity and reliance on the area’s natural environment which also presents
the most challenging risks under climate change. According to research
undertaken by Risk Frontiers almost three quarters of residential buildings
(73%) in the BMCC area are in high bushfire risk areas (within 130m).
The recent tragedy in Victoria where bushfire claimed over 200 lives and
caused hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage suggests that
increased intensity and frequency of bushfire is potentially one of the most
serious risks facing communities in high bush fire prone areas. The Blue
Mountains has very limited evacuation routes. Any closure of these routes
during a serious bushfire event could prove potentially catastrophic.
The Blue Mountains World Heritage Area was listed on the World Heritage
Register due to its large collection of endemic species as well as its natural
beauty. More than one million tourists visit the region each year. Any threat
to the natural environment of the Blue Mountains Region is a direct threat to
its economic viability.
Although the BMCC and other agencies undertake what many consider
being best practice fire management climate change will no doubt introduce
further challenges. Overcoming these challenges (both preventative and
reactive) will more than likely require further allocation from the Council’s
operational budget.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
19
5.1.1.3 Impacts upon Human Health
Temperature can also impact on the
health of humans (see Figure 10).
Increases in temperature, especially
during heat waves, increase the
incidence of food and water borne
illness. This is a result of faster spoilage
of food (McMichael et al. 2006),
decreased treatability of the water
supply (Soh et al. 2008) and changes
in the “distribution and activity of flies,
cockroaches, and rodents” (IPCC 2001).
As shown by the IPCC (2001) “climate
plays a dominant role in determining the
distribution and abundance of insects
and tick species”.
Of particular concern in the urban
environment are the potential
challenges resulting from increased
ozone levels. According to the Royal
Society (2008) “ground-level ozone
is a serious pollutant that affects
human health, reduces crop yields and
damages natural ecosystems”. There
is a strong correlation between ground
level ozone and temperatures above
32˚C (IPCC 2001). As ground level ozone
is a significant pollutant in Australia, any
increases in temperature may see an
increase in the associated health effects
(Horton & McMichael 2008).
5.1.1.4 Urban Heat Island Effect
At the local level some areas of the built
environment contribute to the ‘urban
heat island’ effect. The urban heat island
(UHI) effect is a phenomenon whereby
the design and increased impervious
surfaces of the built environment (i.e.
through consolidation and removal of
the natural environment) absorb and
reflect more radiant energy than its
surrounding environment (Kolokotroni
& Giridharan 2008). This leads to
increased temperatures (compared to
surrounding environs) in the urban zone.
The implications of the UHI effect can
lead to increased rates of human heat
stress and death (Devi 2006), reduced
productivity, increased water use
(Guhathakurta & Gober 2008), increased
energy use from air conditioners
(Santamouris et al. 2007), as well as a
potential exacerbation of the other heat
issues described above.
Box 4. The Urban Heat Island - The Blue
Mountains Context
Although the Blue Mountains LGA may currently not
be at risk of the UHI due to its bushland setting it is
important to recognize the problems associated with
development and the UHI and ensure that the region
does not head in this direction.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
20
Figure 10. Relationship
between climate
change and human
health
There is a diverse array
of health effects which
result from climate
change, with the elderly
and infirm the most
vulnerable (McMichael
2006).
Modulating
influences
Health Effects
Temperature-related illness
and death
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Regional
weather
changes
Microbial
contamination
pathways
•
Heatwaves
Transmission
dynamics
•
Extreme
weather
•
Temperature
•
Precipitation
Agroecosystems,
hydrology
Extreme weather-related
health effects
Air pollution-related health
effects
Water and food-borne
diseases
Vector-borne and rodentborne diseases
Socioeconomics,
demographics
Effects of food and water
shortages
Mental, nutritional, infectious
and other health effects
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
21
5.1.1.5 Infrastructure
5.1.1.5 Food crops
Extreme and increased average
temperatures also place a considerable
strain on the built environment. For
roads, increased temperatures during
summer can prematurely crack the
road surface and damage its water
proofing. A recent report shows
that for an increase of 2˚C -3˚C road
maintenance costs could increase by
up to 17% (Preston and Jones 2007). It
is important to note however that road
maintenance issues can also improve
for regions in northern and temperate
climates (Cechet 2007), primarily due
to decreased snowfall and freeze-thaw
events (IPCC 1997).
In terms of crop yields, increased winter
temperatures reduce frost frequency,
thereby reducing frost damage and
allowing frost sensitive crops to be
grown in previously risk prone areas.
Despite this, temperate fruits such as
apples and stone-fruit require winter
chilling for bud-bursting and fruit setting
(CSIRO 2001). Warmer winters will
reduce the amount of time in which this
process can occur thereby resulting in
lower yields and reduced fruit quality
(CSIRO 2001). Furthermore, as frosts
can also keep weeds and pests at bay
a decreased number of frost days may
increase the need for sprays and other
pest management techniques to be
used.
Box 5. Infrastructure - The Blue
Mountains Context
BMCC is responsible for the management and
maintenance of 637km of local sealed road
pavement. BMCC will spend approximately
$1.5 million in 2008-2009 on the road reseal
program, resealing approximately 5% of the local
road network. As the cost of bitumen is anticipated to rise any increase in
maintenance cost due to temperature will further exacerbate the associated
cost.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
22
5.2 Precipitation
Workshop findings
For the Blue Mountains LGA changes
to precipitation resulting from climate
change poses most significant risk for:
In the workshop, participants identified
a number of precipitation related risks.
Those which were classed to be of most
significance include:
•
decreased water availability;
•
changes to flooding patterns and
return rate;
•
habitat loss;
•
soil erosion;
•
lower water flows for scenic areas
(e.g. waterfalls);
•
decreased local food production;
•
loss of recreation amenity;
•
increased maintenance costs for
natural areas;
•
negative impact on tourism; and
•
increased insurance costs.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
•
infrastructure failure;
•
water quality;
•
species loss;
•
hail events;
•
water table levels; and
•
a range of issues related to drought.
A summary of these results and others
which received a lower risk rating is
found below (Table 3).
23
Summary of Precipitation Related
Risks
The following diagram presents
precipitation related risks based on a
quadruple bottom line framework. This
provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Figure 11. Risk
Summary
Precipitation impacts by
quadrauple bottom line
framework.
Key
Social
Governance
Damage to piping
Increased maintenance
Infrastructure failure
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Tank water quality
Damage to property and assets
Costs associated with retrofit of water supply
Road cracking
Damage to stormwater infrastructure
Higher rates of suicide during drought
Water table management from bores
Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation
Tree root growth in periods of low rain and
increased heat damaging infrastructure
Climate Risk
Damage to small farming communities
Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation
Damage to property
Economic
Damage to natural environment
Environment
Decreased water quality in natural systems
Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs)
Habitat loss, reduced species diversity
Lower water flows
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
24
Table 3. Risks, and their rankings, for issues relating to
precipitation.
Precipitation Issues
Risk Ranking
Irregularity, difficult to anticipate intense rainfall events and impacts, infrastructure
failure
Extreme
Decreased water quality in natural systems
Extreme
Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs)
Extreme
Damage to small farming communities
Extreme
Habitat loss, reduced species diversity, loss of threatened/endangered species
Extreme
Increasing maintenance of natural areas, NP, pest management, vermin eradication,
weed management
Extreme
Impacts on waterfalls and creeks – lower flows
Extreme
Damage to piping from lack of groundwater
Extreme
Water table management from bores and heat problems with impacts on ecosystem
High
More hail events – damage to property and infrastructure, litigation, relocation
High
Costs associated with retrofit of water supply
High
Road cracking, building cracking, damage to foundations
High
Loss of recreation amenity
High
Damage to stormwater infrastructure
High
Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation
Medium
Higher rates of suicide during drought
Medium
Tree root growth in periods of low rain and increased heat damaging infrastructure
Medium
Water tanks may be faced with health risks due to quality
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Low
25
5.2.1 Precipitation Related Discussion
Australia is a dry continent. Any
changes in precipitation are significant
for human settlements and agriculture.
Reduced rainfall, or number days
between rainfalls can increase impact
on costs and maintenance in the built
environment from a drying of soils
impacting on built infrastructure
to reduced potable water and
environmental flows (see Figure 12).
Katoomba’s average rainfall is 1399mm
per year and by 2030 this could
change by up between -7% and + 7%
and between -20% and + 20%. The
projections for changes to extreme
rainfall events (1-40 event levels) for
2030 and 2070 are -3% to +12% and -8%
to +10% respectively (NSW Government
& CSIRO 2007). The paradoxical ranges
make planning for these changes
extremely confusing. Until better
modelling is available both extremes
should be considered when making
decisions. It is possible that some areas
of the Australian environment may see
both a mean increase in rainfall and
increase in the number of days without
rain (meaning more rain falling over
fewer days and increased days between
significant rainfalls).
Figure 12. The range
of drivers (exacerbated
by climate change)
that place pressure
on Australian water
resources (Source DCC
2008).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
26
Box 6. The Blue Mountains Context
As the BMCC is responsible for the management
and maintenance of over 7,296 drainage pits, 60km
of open drains and 145km of drainage pipes with
annual operational and capital expenditure of
over $1 million (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan pg. 35-36), changes
to precipitation patterns and volume pose considerable challenges in the
management of these assets.
5.3 Extreme Weather Events
Workshop findings
For the Blue Mountains LGA extreme
weather poses the most significant risks
for:
In the workshop, participants identified
a number of risks related to extreme
weather events. Those which were
classed to be of most significance
include:
•
damage to BMCC assets;
•
damage to community and business
assets;
•
increased bushfires from lightning
strikes;
•
damage to assets and infrastructure;
•
associated insurance increases;
•
implementation of new planning
requirements;
•
increased pressure on emergency
services;
•
community isolation (from flooding);
•
damage to housing; and
•
increased strain on emergency
services;
•
costs associated with re-training
staff.
•
impact on businesses; and
•
increased insurance costs.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
A summary of these results and others
which received a lower risk rating is
found below (Table 4).
27
Summary of Extreme Weather
Event Related Risks
The following diagram presents extreme
weather event related risks based on
a quadruple bottom line framework.
This provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Figure 13. Risk
Summary
Extreme weather
impacts by quadrauple
bottom line framework.
Key
Governance
Increased insurance
Retraining staff
Risks to assets
Litigation
Road flooding
Pressure on emergency services
Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall
Buildings design not built to suit environment
Dam may fail
Lightning strikes start bushfires
Increased costs associated with emergency housing
Higher funding for RFS, SES
Cost to clean up downed trees
Power outages
Inter-agency works not climate resilient
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Social
Dam may fail
Lightning damage to property
Lightning strikes start bushfires
Power outages
Damage to property
Public safety, safety in traffic
Impact on recreational facilities
Transport corridors blocked
House damage/ litigation increase from flooding
Road flooding – school and work closures
Housing stability
Fire and wind risk to homes
Reduced revenue from tips
Public relations
Climate Risk
Road flooding
Lightning strikes start bushfires
Hail damage
Underinsurance
Habitat loss – reduced tourism
Economic
Dam may fail
Lightning strikes start bushfires
Power outages
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Spreading of weeds
Biodiversity loss
Soil impacts
Environment
28
Table 4. Risks, and their rankings, for issues relating to extreme weather events.
Extreme Weather Related Issue
Risk Ranking
Increased insurance impacts/risks from increased storm events and intensity
Extreme
Accountants to be retrained with other skills
Extreme
Higher claims for section 44, risks to assets, council buildings, homes
Extreme
House damage/ litigation increase from flooding
Extreme
Road flooding – accidents, school and work closures, damage to infrastructure, drain
blockages, risk to public safety
Extreme
More pressure on emergency services
Extreme
Housing stability
Extreme
Damage to housing and buildings from the impact of wind on fires
Extreme
Spreading of weeds
High
Damage to property from increased hail intensity and size
High
Wind damage increases
High
Biodiversity loss
High
Roof removals
High
Business preparedness / underinsurance for these issues to recover from an event
High
Public safety, safety in traffic
High
Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall
High
Soil impacts – erosion, loss of vegetation, landslides, loss of walking tracks
High
Habitat loss – world heritage integrity, reduced tourism
High
Impact on recreational facilities and sporting fields – closures, social impacts,
increased reliance on reticulated water
High
Transport corridors blocked by fallen trees
High
Buildings design not built to suit environment
High
Dam may fail if greater 1:10,000 re spillway e.g. road closures, remove 10 houses,
village shopping centre, railway, highway
Medium
Lightning damage to property
Medium
Lightning strikes start bushfires
Medium
Increased costs associated with emergency housing
Medium
Higher funding for RFS, SES
Medium
Cost to clean up downed trees
Medium
Power outages and age of substations to respond
Medium
Inter-agency works are not undertaken taking account of climate change e.g. limited
underground electricity cabling with RTA widening of highway
Medium
Reduced revenue from tips as opened up to allow dumping of debris
Low
Public relations
Low
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
29
5.3.1 Extreme Weather Event Related
Discussion
5.3.1.1 Storms
Storms, also known as extreme weather
events, are a common occurrence
in the Australian environment and
occur frequently in the BMCC area.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology
(BoM 2008) “each year, on average,
severe thunderstorms are responsible
for more damage (as measured by
insurance costs) than tropical cyclones,
earthquakes, floods or bushfires”. In
light of recent science it is anticipated
that the intensity of these storms will
increase with a warming of Australian
average temperatures. The resultant
impacts would likely include an
increase in disruption to key services
such as electricity and transport,
increased damage to infrastructure,
higher accident rates including water
and aviation sectors, and increased
outbreaks of post-event disease and
water-borne diseases from extreme
rainfall (Department of Climate
Change 2008). Lightning strikes are
also predicted to increase under
climate change by a factor of 1.4 for
every degree increase in atmospheric
temperature (this is of particular concern
for bushfire threat).
5.3.1.2 Hail damage
Hail damage is responsible for some
of Australia’s largest single event
insurance claims and as highlighted
by the Insurance Council of Australia
hailstorm represent the highest
percentage of weather events (see
Figure 14). Recent research by Leslie
et al. (2008) indicates that the Blue
Mountains LGA has been exposed to
significant hail events in the past (see
Figure 15) and climate change modelling
shows that “the Blue Mountains and the
hinterland of the Central Coast appear
to be particularly susceptible to severe
hailstorm events” in the future (Leslie et
al. p.51).
Bushfire
12%
Tropical cyclone
32%
Thunderstorm
12%
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Figure 14. Percentage
of Australian insurance
claims from natural
disasters (ICA 2007).
Flood
8%
Hailstorm
36%
30
Recurrence interval (years)
60
Current climate
Future climate
50
Figure 15. Return rates
of damaging hail with
increased greenhouse
gas emissions.
Power (current climate)
Power (future climate)
40
30
20
10
0
4 cm +
6 cm +
8 cm +
10 cm +
Hail size
Hail size
Current climate
4 cm or greater
1.4 years
6 cm or greater
8 years
Increasing
greenhouse gas
1.2 years
5 years
8 cm or greater
28 years
19 years
10 cm or greater
51 years
28 years
5.3.1.3 Flood
With intense rainfall comes flood.
Global flood catastrophes have
increased over the past three decades
and it is predicted to continue
(especially with the onset of sea level
rise, combined with an increase in
impermeable surfaces due to increased
urban development) (see Figure 16). As
shown by Hennesey et al. (2006) a 25%
increase in the duration of a 30 minute
rainfall event can see a 1 in 100 year
flood event becoming a 1 in 17 year
event. Short term flooding in the Blue
Mountains LGA is common and can
often temporarily isolate communities.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
31
Number of flood catastrophes
350
Figure 16. Global
catastrophic flood
events between 1980
and 2006 (Muncih Re
2007).
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Year
5.3.1.4 Cyclones
As shown by Leslie et al. (2007, p.179) it
is projected that there will be an increase
in the number of intense tropical
cyclones along the Australian east coast
with increasing numbers and severity
of impacts over southeast Queensland
and the NSW northern coast. While
the anticipated southerly reach of
projected cyclones would be unlikely
to directly pass the Blue Mountains
LGA, it will possibly face the associated
surrounding, southward moving
weather. The Blue Mountains, as with
many other parts of Australia, will feel
the indirect socio-economic impacts
should a category 3 to 5 cyclone hit one
of the major towns on the mid coast of
Australia.
5.3.1.5 Wind
According to Munich Re (2007) there has
been a marked increase in the number
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
of global windstorm catastrophes (see
Figure 17). Under climate change many
parts of Australia are projected to see
increased wind speeds – this includes
the Blue Mountains LGA.
Increased wind speeds during storms,
bushfire weather, or simply these events
on their own can create significant
strains on the built environment,
especially if the wind speeds cross
design thresholds. It would be fair to say
that most buildings are only designed
and constructed up to the minimum
required specifications (i.e. the relevant
building codes), as going beyond
minimum compliance attracts increased
building costs. When design thresholds
are surpassed it is normally associated
with widespread damage as all buildings
in the area face potential failure. This is
shown in the diagram below, where a
25% increase in wind speeds results in a
non-linear increase in insurance claims
(see Figure 18).
32
Number of windstorm catastrophes
350
Figure 17. Trend
highlighting the
increased occurrence of
damaging windstorms
over the past three
decades (Muncih Re
2007).
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Year
700
% Increases in damages
600
Figure 18. Graph
highlighting the nonlinear correlation
between peak wind
speeds and insurance
losses (Hawker 2007).
25% increase in peak wind
gust causes 650% increase
in building damages
500
400
300
200
100
Under 20 knots
20-40 knots
40-50 knots
50-60 knots
Wind speed
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
33
Box 7. Extreme Weather Events - The Blue Mountains Context
Provision of Emergency Services
During and following an extreme weather event, the efficient provision of
emergency services is critical. The BMCC provides Emergency Management
services to the community including emergency response coordination. The
provision of emergency services will continue to be an important focus with
significant resources supporting bushfire mitigation, emergency response,
provision and maintenance of fire trails and Rural Fire Service State
Emergency Services infrastructure’ including RFS/SES building provision
and maintenance (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan p.38).
Waste Disposal
In the aftermath of an extreme weather event, the management of waste is a
key part of the return to normality. The BMCC is responsible for the provision
of two active waste management facilities. Significant works are being
undertaken at the Blaxland and Katoomba Waste Management Facilities to
improve the City’s waste infrastructure and contribute to increased resource
recovery, reuse and recycling (BMCC 2008-2009 Management Plan p.37).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
34
6.0 Secondary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
The key secondary hazards include:
6.1 - Regulation and policy change
6.2 - Insurance
6.3 - Carbon constraints (e.g. CPRS)
For the Blue Mountains LGA and BMCC
in particular secondary hazards pose the
most significant risks for:
•
Operational costs (e.g. electricity,
road costs);
•
Less funding for infrastructure
maintenance;
•
Increased energy costs for the
community;
•
Health impacts on the elderly
(increased heating costs may see
some forgoing winter heating); and
•
Increased costs associated with
Council emissions reporting.
Workshop findings
In the workshop participants identified
a number of risks related to secondary
hazards.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
35
6.1 Summary of Regulation and
Policy Change Related Risks
The following diagram presents
regulation and policy change related
risks based on a quadruple bottom line
framework. This provides an indication
of how risks might impact on BMCC
(Governance) and on the LGA (from an
environmental, social and economic
perspective).
Figure 19. Risk
Summary
Regulatory impacts by
quadruple bottom line
framework.
Social
Governance
Assets – loss of control
Costs associated with green power consumption
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains
Key
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
New DA laws
Costs associated with green power consumption
Assist residents with grants e.g. solar power
Implementation costs
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains
Assets – loss of control
Increased building costs
Climate Risk
Economic
Environment
Table 5. State planning policies and regulation changes
State Planning Policies and Regulation Changes
Risk Ranking
Increased building costs associated with any new regulatory requirements
Extreme
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning,
community dissatisfaction
Extreme
Assets – loss of control
Extreme
New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable
Extreme
New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable
High
Costs associated with green power consumption
Medium
Assist residents with take up of rebates and grants e.g. solar power
Medium
Increased costs to councils due to extra responsibilities (e.g. cost shifting from state
government, increased training, skill development costs)
Medium
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning,
community dissatisfaction
Medium
Assets – loss of control
Medium
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
36
6.1.1 Discussion on regulation and
policy change
Federal and State climate change
policies and regulations are being
created at a rapid rate. In the past year
the following significant policies and
regulations have been created and/or
amended for the consideration of
climate change:
National Greenhouse and Energy
Reporting Act 2007 – this act is designed
to support the collection, reporting
and auditing of data by GHG polluters
over a pre-defined threshold. It is still
ambiguous where Local Governments
sit within this act.
adaptation) may see competition of
resources and some measures being
implemented more thoroughly than
others. The second challenge surrounds
staffing. There is a dearth of local
government professionals (such as
planners and engineers) and ones
with climate change specific skills are
even scarcer. As all councils will be
responding to climate change policies
simultaneously the cost of obtaining
these key staff increases substantially.
Finally, changing policies also means
changing regulatory risks from litigation
and planning challenges (this will be
discussed below in further detail).
Mandatory Renewable Energy Target
20 (MRET20) – Australian Government’s
commitment for 20% renewable energy
by 2020.
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
(CPRS) – This is the Australian emissions
trading scheme. Companies who emit
over a pre-determined threshold will
have to purchase the right to pollute.
These permits will be auctioned
quarterly and can be traded nationally
and internationally.
These new policies and policy changes
present a range of risks for Local
Councils in three main areas. Firstly the
enormity and speed of climate change
specific policies create a substantial
workload and cost for local governments
to collate, synthesise and implement.
Choosing to focus on one policy over
another (for example, mitigation over
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
37
6.2 Summary of Insurance Related
Risks
The following diagram presents
insurance related risks based on a
quadruple bottom line framework. This
provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Social
Governance
Figure 20. Risk
Summary
Insurance related
impacts by quadrauple
bottom line framework.
Increased maintenance costs – to reduce insurance
Insurance availability, uninsurable property
Council underwriting more activities
Insurance availability, uninsurable property
Key
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Climate Risk
Insurance availability, uninsurable property
Economic
Environment
Table 6. Insurance related issues.
Insurance Related Issues
Assets – increased costs due to higher maintenance requirements
Risk Ranking
High
Council – underwriting more activities, increased risk e.g. community activities
Medium
Development – reduced opportunities, insurance availability, uninsurable property
Medium
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
38
6.2.1 Discussion on insurance
Australian and international insurers
are feeling the impacts from climate
change. The growth in claims from
climate related events has increased
significantly over the past decade and
insurers are seeking ways to contain
this unsustainable rate of increase
(see Figure 21). There are a range of
threats that insurers face from Local
Governments.
Local Governments are at the forefront
of land use planning and play a
significant role in the development
approval process. Councils are often
prevented from rejecting development
applications for a number of reasons.
These include: time and resources to
challenge in court, planning staff with
inadequate skill sets or support to
challenge development assessments
and confusion surrounding the climate
change science. This may lead to
developments occurring in areas that
may be too costly to insure.
Another risk for insurers stems from
class actions which may be brought
against councils who have knowingly
allowed development to occur in an
area exposed to climate change risks.
This will have a potential impact of the
pricing and design of councillors’ and
Index: 1980 = 1.00
Figure 21. Insured
weather-related losses
are rising faster than
premiums, population
or gross domestic
product. Data exclude
health and life insurance
premiums and losses
(Mills 2005)
25
2005: $75 billion (est.)
$2004 insured losses
$2004 total non-weather-related natural-disaster losses
$2004 property insurance premiums
20
$2004 GDP
Population
15
2004: $44.7 billion
$2004 insured
losses line of best
fit
10
5
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
39
officers’ insurance. Insurers ultimately
have three options to spread their
growing risks:
1. Cease insuring high risk areas or
activities.
Currently the Blue Mountains City
Council spends over $1 million dollars
annually on insurance (BMCC 2008).
Any further increases in this will place
significant strains on funding for other
services.
2. Increase premiums.
3. Work with clients to minimise risks.
At present the Australian insurers have
tended to focus on the second action,
increasing premiums, although there is
a slow shift towards the third option.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
40
6.3 Summary of Carbon Constraint
Related Risks
The following diagram presents carbon
constraint related risks based on a
quadruple bottom line framework. This
provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Social
Governance
Figure 22. Risk
Summary
Increased maintenance costs
Increased cost of living
Increased fuel prices
Electricity costs
Increased fuel prices
Electricity costs
Carbon constraint
impacts by quadrauple
bottom line framework.
Key
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Climate Risk
Increased fuel prices
Increasing building costs
Council development and monitoring
Economic
Environment
Table 7. Carbon constraints
Carbon Constraints
Infrastructure - Less funding available for maintenance
Risk Ranking
Extreme
Increased fuel prices – reduce travel and visitation, increased food prices, decrease of
vehicles on GBH, restricted access to basic services (but better positioned for domestic
tourism due to proximity to Sydney)
High
Energy costs for heating during winter in upper mountain and cooling in lower mountain
High
Increasing building costs – reduction in development
Medium
Council development and monitoring – increased costs and staff, training costs,
increased skill development, delays in getting up to speed, more complex assessments,
delays in approvals
Medium
Low income households, increased defaults, increased crime
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Low
41
6.3.1 Discussion on carbon
constraints
The Australian Government is
committed to implementing a system
to reduce national greenhouse
emissions under the Carbon Pollution
Reduction Scheme (CPRS) by July
2010. This trading scheme is a market
based mechanism which aims to
reduce carbon pollution by placing
a cap on total national greenhouse
gas emissions across a wide range
of economic sectors. Although the
Federal Government’s targets of a 5%
to 15% reduction of 2000 greenhouse
gas emissions by 2020 are less than
some of the international community’s
expectations, they still will ultimately act
as a catalyst for a low carbon paradigm.
The CPRS program presents two main
challenges for Local Governments.
Firstly, there is the cost associated with
recording and auditing the emissions
(although those who are already
members of the Cities for Climate
Protection program may already be
somewhat prepared).
The biggest challenge to Local
Governments, and particularly BMCC,
from a carbon pollution scheme arises
from increased costs associated
with fleet and plant fuel, the cost of
bitumen, and the cost of energy supply
for the services that it provides to the
community. Although the Australian
Government has indicated that there will
be no net increase in transport fuel costs
for the next 3 years, it is possible that
it will rise after a transition time. Even
a few cents per litre can increase the
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Council’s fuel bill substantially. With oil
vulnerability on the horizon the problem
is exacerbated within the community,
who already feel the strain of increased
fuel prices, demanding more public
transport services and facilities.
The cost of emissions under a CPRS
scheme will be decided by the market,
but there are various estimates for
costs. In the short term, the Australian
Government has suggested starting
with a fixed price of $25/tCO-e to
$40/tCO-e for an initial transitionary
period. Thereafter the cost of carbon
will depend upon on the trajectory
of emission cuts as set out by the
government.
6.3.1.1 Plausible Future Emission Levels
There are several important challenges
presented to Council in preparing itself
for changes which may be at, or even
beyond, the regulatory horizon. In
the short term emission policies will
be driven by political considerations
including election commitments,
international negotiations and the
influence of impacted groups.
In the medium and long term it is
worth remembering that the objectives
of carbon constraints are about the
avoidance of ‘dangerous’ levels of
climate change. The European Union
has defined dangerous levels of climate
change as greater that 2oC above preindustrial levels. This figure is based on
the risk of unlocking significant positive
feed-backs in the global climate systems
which will lead to irreversible or ‘runaway’ climate change.
42
Australia will tend to be a ‘target taker’
of agreements which are established by
larger economic blocks and enforced
through trade access or sanction. If
Australia followed the United State’s
anticipated 80% national emission cuts
by 2050, it would equate (on a per capita
basis) to 83% cuts in Australia. The
European Union’s position based on
avoiding the 2oC warming requires an
Australian emission cut of the order 90%
by 2050. The implementation of national
and international targets will depend on
the participation of developing countries
like India and China. Although the initial
2020 targets are lower than anticipated
the Australian Government is committed
to containing global CO2 emissions
to 450ppm – which ultimately means
deep cuts by the middle of the century.
Whatever the targets are for 2050, there
is little doubt that they will be deep and
will change the face of the international
economy.
6.4 Local Government and Climate
Change Litigation
As shown by recent publications
(England 2007; McDonald 2008) climate
change presents a legal minefield for
Local Governments. Legal threats
come from issues surrounding failure to
abate (causation of greenhouse gases);
failure to adapt to the known impacts;
mal-adaptation to the known impacts;
and, pressure from developers and
community groups surrounding climate
change mitigation and adaptation
requirements (or lack of) for new
developments.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
To a certain extent the Civil Liabilities
Act 2002 offers some protection to
Councils. Although as shown by
England (2007) recent international
and national reports and attention on
climate change make it difficult for Local
Governments to deny that they were not
aware of some of the risks.
A recent ruling in the Supreme Court of
South Australia (Northcape Properties
Pty Ltd v District of Yorke Peninsula
[2008] SASC 57) has highlighted that
climate change is, and will continue to
be, a contentious issue for developers
and councils. In this case a development
was rejected by the District Council
of Yorke Peninsular due to its failing
to consider anticipated sea level rise.
This was a view supported by the
Supreme Court Judge who agreed
that the foreshore could recede by up
to 40m by 2100. Similarly, but perhaps
more precedent setting, the recent
landmark decision handed down by
the Victorian Civil and Administrative
Tribunal in Gippsland Coastal Board v
South Gippsland Shire Council & Ors
(No 2) [2008] VCAT 1545, has served
as a wakeup call for both developers
and councils. While the Tribunal
admitted that climate change was in
an “evolutionary phase”, the deputy
president and member jointly refused
a housing development application
on the grounds that it was reasonably
foreseeable that the proposed dwellings
would be at risk of sea level rise and
coastal inundation.
Although the cases above resulted in
positive outcomes for the applicants,
the process of gathering supportive
43
information and legal costs can be an
expensive risk for Local Governments
to take. Councils face difficult decisions
surrounding the costs and benefits of
such action. It could be argued that
if the council did not challenge the
development, then they could face
action in years to come by property
owners seeking redress from council for
allowing development to occur in an “at
risk” area.
Dr Philippa England from Griffith
University describes some of the
potential legal risks for councils:
It’s not hard to envisage the type
of law suits [from climate change]
that may eventuate or increase in
incidence. These may challenge:
•
The appropriateness of
development approvals in flood
prone, coastal zone or at risk
areas
•
The adequacy of building
standards to withstand extreme
weather events - as their area
of activity expands and their
frequency increases
•
Responsibility for erosion,
landslides etc, resulting from
extreme weather events
•
The adequacy of emergency
procedures when more
frequently put to the test
•
Failure to undertake disease
prevention programmes
•
Failure to preserve ‘public’
natural assets in the face of
climate change – if and when the
technology becomes available.
(England 2006 p. 4)
2
There is also a risk of litigation from
businesses and residents if risks are
hidden from public view.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that some
councils in Australia may be holding
on to the findings of risk assessments.
This presents a significant risk in
itself, and may negate some of the
protections that NSW Governments
have under the Civil Liabilities Act
2002. It may be in the interest of Local
Governments to consider divulging
all known climate change risks to its
residents and businesses to follow of
volenti non fit injuria defence under the
Civil Liabilities Act 20022. Climate Risk
P/L recommends that Blue Mountains
City Council consider these issues, and
seek independent legal advice for these
issues.
6.5 Stakeholder Roundtable
The Stakeholder Roundtable discussion
brought forward a range of issues
relevant to the discussion of secondary
hazards threatening the BMCC and Blue
Mountains LGA.
The external workshop attendees
recognised the significant challenges
facing BMCC, especially the risks
associated with bushfires. Although it
was recognised that BMCC was a leader
in the field of bushfire management,
and that bushfire emergency response
was excellent, there is a need to further
educate the community to be prepared
for longer bushfire seasons and more
intense fires.
“The Latin phrase volenti non fit injuria or volenti for short is a long standing legal maxim that when translated means “to a willing person, no injury
can be done”. It means that a person who knowingly and willingly puts himself or herself in danger cannot sue for the resulting injuries as they have
voluntarily assumed the risk” (McGuire & Stevens 2007, p. 1).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
44
The participants identified that planning
instruments are and will continue to be
under pressure to contain development
in order to manage climate change risks.
Finding the balance between protecting
the natural environment and ensuring
safety of the population was recognised
as a significant issue for BMCC. It was
noted that the City Vision of increasing
densities in key areas was a good way of
containing future exposure to bushfire
risks.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
The participants discussed ways ahead
for the BMCC, stating that there was a
need to future proof major infrastructure
and identify ways in which Council
could support the community and small
businesses to become more resilient
to the anticipated impacts from climate
change and associated strategies (see
Appendix 3 for detailed notes of the
external workshop).
45
Box 8. Secondary Hazards - The Blue Mountains Context
There are several areas of change that will impact directly upon BMCC
services, these include:
•
Reductions in emissions from household, commercial and industrial
waste.
•
Increases in vehicle efficiency.
•
A transfer of some transport from car to public transport.
•
Building efficiency.
•
Across the board de-carbonisation of energy in fuels and power.
•
New infrastructure.
There will also be impacts that will indirectly affect the BMCC though the
impacts on individuals and businesses in the area. Important impacts may
include:
•
Reductions in aviation levels and increases in costs.
•
Constraints on some agricultural activity - especially livestock which is
particularly sensitive to the level of emission cut pursued.
•
Significant reduction in land clearing.
•
Increases in renewable energy developments of various kinds.
Of course it should not be assumed that all of these changes represent
negative impacts to BMCC. It is possible that some will provide opportunities
for inward investment if properly managed. However within the context of
risk, the most important hazards to council include:
1.
Long term building standards - Buildings have very long life-spans and
therefore effectively lock in performance over many decades. There is
an emerging tension between existing building standards, which are
designed for past performance requirements, and the climate science
which implies quite different performance standards. The council could
find itself caught between these differing standards.
2.
Planning and zoning for future development - Planning for a change to
increase public transport use, and increase development of renewable
energy assets may imply preparation for such developments in the
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
46
short term. For example, national biomass requirement may need
to ensure the highly productive land is not committed to building or
industrial development. Areas of potentially high wind energy resource
need to ensure that urban development is not too close by due to noise
levels prohibiting use. Note that such developments may also need to
consider easements for infrastructure such as on-shore and off-shore
transmission lines, CO2 pipelines and increase gas pipeline capacity.
3.
Wide ranging economic changes - Some sectors will benefit, whilst
others will be adversely affected or undergo transitions such as retooling, re-skilling or relocation.
The biggest challenge to Local Governments arises from increased costs
associated with fleet and plant fuel, the cost of bitumen, and the cost of
energy supply for the services that it provides to the community. Although
the Australian Government has indicated that there will be no net increase in
fuel costs for the next 3 years, it is possible that it will rise after this transition
time. Even a few cents a litre can increase BMCC’s fuel bill substantially.
Furthermore the community, who are already feeling the strain of increased
fuel prices, may demand more public transport services and facilities.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
47
7.0 Tertiary Hazards and the Blue Mountains
Tertiary hazards are those which result
from adaptations by the community or
businesses to deal with climate change.
There are innumerable possibilities
and as such they are difficult to predict.
They include real estate fluctuations,
demographic and behavioural changes,
as well as changes in infrastructure
location and specification, and the
advent and implementation of new
technology.
Indeed, climate change and associated
hazards will have a range of impacts
on the exposed general population,
which will subsequently flow on to Local
Governments. For the Blue Mountains,
there is the potential that sea level rise
can place development and population
pressures on the region, if those living in
coastal communities perceive their risks
to be too great.
Workshop Findings
Even more complex is the issue of
cocktail effects – those that are a
combination of climate change and
other systemic risks and include
market meltdowns, pandemic threats,
and terrorist events. Current oil price
volatility combined with increased
mortgage and rent stress exacerbates
those already vulnerable to climate
change impacts. The pressures from the
increased cost of living may see some
opting out of insurance. If a serious
climatic event does occur BMCC will
have to deal with a population that has
very little resources left to rebuild their
lives (such as what happened in New
Orleans with hurricane Katrina). The
result is a significant change in the
community.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
At the workshop it was recognised
that tertiary impacts were difficult to
identify. However the participants
identified three risks which pose a threat
to BMCC:
•
Decreased tourism (from
international emissions reductions
and from local consumer behaviour
change)
•
Threat of increased population (as
people move away from coastal
areas); and
•
Potential loss of environmental
amenity due to increased
development pressures.
49
7.1 Summary of Tertiary Hazard
Risks
The following diagram presents
tertiary hazard related risks based on
a quadruple bottom line framework.
This provides an indication of how risks
might impact on BMCC (Governance)
and on the LGA (from an environmental,
social and economic perspective).
Social
Governance
Figure 23. Risk
Summary
Tertiary impacts by
quadrauple bottom line
framework.
Increased operational costs
Loss of environmental amenity
Key
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
Climate Risk
Decreased economic viability
Loss of environmental amenity
Loss of environmental amenity
Economic
Environment
Table 8. Tertiary impacts
Tertiary Impacts
Decreased economic viability as tourism slows
Increased costs to councils due to extra population moving to BMCC area
Loss of environmental amenity from increased development pressures
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Risk Ranking
Extreme
High
Medium
50
8.0 Summary of Risks Identified
The participants in the workshop
identified a broad range of climate
change risks. In total 102 risks were
identified (81 primary; 19 secondary;
and 3 tertiary) (see Figure 24).
Within each of the levels of risk there
were a considerable number of extreme
and high risks identified (see Figure 25).
Tertiary
Figure 24. Distribution
of total risks
3%
Secondary
18 %
Primary
79%
35
Primary
30
Secondary
25
Tertiary
Figure 25. Distribution
of risk priorities by level
of risk.
20
15
10
5
0
Extreme
High
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Medium
Low
51
The linear urban footprint of the Blue
Mountains LGA, surrounded by World
Heritage National Park, limits the Blue
Mountains community’s geographic
flexibility in terms of opportunities
for future strategic developments
(i.e. there are almost no greenfield
sites remaining). The Blue Mountains
LGA also has an aging population,
a high commuter workforce, and a
constricted rate base. On face value,
these characteristics appear to inhibit
the ability of the community to respond
to significant change. However, there
are already existing aspects of the Blue
Mountains LGA and BMCC which can
be built upon when faced with carbon
constraints and climate hazards.
It is important to note that many of
these risks may be exacerbated by nonclimate and other climate change risks.
For example, a carbon constrained
environment (from climate change or
peak oil) may limit the capacity of post
extreme event clean up.
All aspects of climate change will
place a strain on the financial viability
of BMCC. It is possible that BMCC has
assets which may become stranded3
(e.g. through regulatory mapping and /
or insurability).
BMCC will need to make challenging
decisions regarding the cost-benefit
of early, mid and late term adaptation
options. Increased insurance, energy
and maintenance costs are virtually
certain, placing strains on BMCC’s
ability to provide other adaptive
measures to support community (e.g.
increased public transport provisions).
Increased maintenance and operational
costs will likely run into millions of
dollars (and even more if tort4 based
litigation occurs ). Even with appropriate
adaptation, expenses will increase due
to climate change, although evidence
suggests that these can be reduced
substantially.
There are clearly cost implications as
resources will have to be found to:
a) Upgrade the capital stock and
systems to be climate resilient
b) Cover high operational and
maintenance costs
c) Cover higher insurance costs and
potential liabilities
Some of this additional income may
need to come from the rate base or from
State or Federal Government investment
in adaptation.
8.1 Confluence of Risks with
BMCC’s Current Risk Register
BMCC’s existing risk register highlight
some significant challenges that will
both exacerbated by climate change
and limit the ability of the Council
to create a more climate resilient
council. The following discussed risks
are those which have been identified
as being both high in likelihood and
consequences. These include:
Bushfire Risk –Climate change is
expected to increase the bushfire
season and the intensity of fires.
3
Stranded Assets - Stranded assets are those which lose their potential to be utilised, hence council reducing the return on its asset investment. An
example of this for a council is a community building located in an area re-defined (by government or insurers) as unsafe, say due to bushfire risk. As such
council (and the community) loses the ability to utilise the investment.
4
Tort - A tort can be defined as a civil wrong in which a victim (plaintiff) seeks redress (such as financial compensation). According to Kerr (in Tranter 2006)
negligence and nuisance are the two tort based actions that are the most appropriate basis for climate change litigation in Australia, and plaintiffs could
seek remedies including damages or injunctions.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
52
Staff Recruitment – The current inability
to attract qualified staff (such as
planners and engineers) may hamper
Councils ability to roll out adaptive
measures. There is a national growing
need for planners and engineers with
climate change skills and BMCC may be
limited in its ability to compete for these
staff.
The Council Going Broke – This is
identified as a serious risk on the current
risk register. As climate change and
associated strategies will increase
expenditure significantly this is a risk
that will be exacerbated.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Escalation of the Water Crisis
– increased temperatures will increase
the demand and reduce the availability
of water resources. This may
ultimately lead to competition between
environmental and community flows
(e.g. less water available for the natural
environment).
Failure to increase revenue flows
- Climate change will increase the
operational costs for Council. If Council
cannot increase its revenue flows then
it will have to find other ways to fund
adaptation measures (e.g. State and
Federal funding).
53
9.0 Conclusion: Moving Forward to Adaptation
This report has highlighted the risks
the BMCC and the Blue Mountains LGA
faces under climate change.
Although the purpose of this report is
not to detail an adaptation program, this
section highlights the current policy,
planning and management activities
which the BMCC has already begun
and upon which can be built a strong
adaptation approach. By capitalising
upon plans and activities which are
already in motion, the BMCC can take
advantage of having pre-prepared
community and more experienced
BMCC staff to work toward adaptation.
BMCC can be a leader or a follower.
Leading will inevitability risk community
and commercial resistance, overcoming
which will need a program of education
and engagement. Therefore it could
be argued that it is better to wait until
the community and private sector are
more aware and open to these changes.
However, the problem we identify with
this option is that waiting will lead to
increased exposure to risk through
development in inappropriate areas, an
ongoing loss of capacity as people may
move to other areas they believe are
‘safer’ (for example, retirees moving to
more comfortable locations) or as staff
and internal capacity are lost in BMCC as
climate enhanced strains take their toll.
If BMCC does decide to take a lead on
climate change then there are issues
surrounding resources, capacity and
authority to deliver climate adaptive
change. These include finding adequate
budgets and suitably trained staff,
and working within State and Federal
5
Government policy and legislation
decisions. These aspects will be
essential to consider in the delivery of an
adaptation plan. Current BMCC adaptive
activities are listed in Appendix 6.
9.1 Adaptation – Next Steps
The following ten points highlight
adaptation options which may help
BMCC to build resilience in the
organisation and in the community5.
It is important however for the BMCC
to create an adaptation plan to further
explore climate change management
strategies.
1. Develop a climate change working
group and supporting resources
Climate change presents significant
challenges to the Council. At present
there is minimal staff focused on climate
change, as well as other sustainability
issues. As such it may be prudent to
further increase the level of knowledge
of decision makers about climate
change and establish climate change
working groups to ensure that each
sector of Council is represented in any
climate change strategy. Furthermore,
the seriousness of the issue combined
with the opportunity of a new planning
and reporting scheme, highlights the
benefits of short – mid- term resource
allocation to enable a concentrated
strategy to be developed in line with the
new plan and planning scheme. This
would also be a fitting group to identify
the priorities for action.
Some of these recommendations have been taken and amended from other Local Council climate change risk assessments and adaptation plans
undertaken by CR.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
55
2. Add climate risks to the council risk
register
By placing climate change specific
risks on the risk register, Council can
ensure that the awareness of those are
heightened and considered frequently.
3. Develop an Adaptation Strategy and
Action Plan
The current project was a scoping
study to examine the various climate
change risks to the BMCC and LGA.
Therefore it would be prudent to widen
the scope of the current project to a
more detailed assessment, including
climate change and hydrological
modelling. If resource constraints
limit the timing of this process, Climate
Risk P/L recommends that at the
very least Council examines the risks
assessment with a working group
to establish priorities for adaptation
and/or further research. During this
process an identification of win-win
options would be useful and may
provide economies of scale (e.g. climate
change strategies which have ancillary
benefits to other council challenges).
As there are many synergies and cross
border dependencies, it would also be
advantageous to undertake a scoping
review of climate change strategies
being undertaken by neighbouring
councils.
decrease the insurability of residents
and businesses. It is recommended
that Council examine ways of working
together with insurers to share and
reduce the potential risks.
5. Embed climate change into corporate
organisational business planning
processes
By incorporating climate change into the
planning process, BMCC could better
capture the economies of scale, ensure
that synergies between mitigation and
adaptation are balanced and embed
climate change issues into mechanisms
with mid to long term milestones.
6. Increase and maintain adaptive
capacity
Council already is facing challenges
from staffing constraints (especially
with planners and engineers). Climate
change is a relatively new issue for
Council and Universities have only just
begun to incorporate climate change
into a range of degrees. As such new
graduates (and existing staff) with
climate change skill sets will be highly
desirable. Council will need to embed
climate change knowledge within
its existing staff and encouraging
employment of those with new skills
sets.
4. Work closely with your insurer
7. Representation to State and Federal
government
Insurers will play a crucial role in
mainstreaming climate change
adaptation. Council activities have
the potential to either increase or
As shown in this report, both State
and Australian Governments will soon
be introducing policies and regulation
which may have considerable impact on
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
56
the community and Council operations,
as well as Council’s own climate change
strategies. It is therefore imperative that
Council come to terms with how these
will impact on their community and
operational performance and undertake
appropriate lobbying.
8. Identify potential cocktail effects
The risks from climate change do not
occur in isolation. Other systemic
challenges, such as the US sub-prime
market collapse, oil vulnerability and
pandemic health risks, are impacted
by and can be exacerbated by climate
change. When identifying the climate
change challenges and opportunities
it is of utmost importance that they are
considered with regard to other risks.
10. Raise community awareness
Ultimately the community will be
dealing with the risks from climate
change. As such it is important to
ensure that they have a grasp of the
issue. Continued consultation with key
community groups and businesses may
provide a valuable insight as to how
each of these groups are (or are not)
dealing with the issue.
9. Explore partnerships
There is the potential for Council
to utilise forward thinking private
enterprises and other agencies
and organisations as a way to help
mainstream adaptation. For instance,
BMCC may develop a relationship
with a telecommunications service
provider to help support information
communication technology hubs.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
57
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Data and Systems Thresholds, Australia Greenhouse Office
(online), Available: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/impacts/
publications/pubs/coastal-vulnerability.pdf (November 2008).
Westerling, A. and Bryant, B. (2008) Climate Change and Wildfire
in California. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1) S231-S249
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
60
Appendix 1 BMCC Services
A Focus on Services
Internal Services
Blue Mountains City Council provides
the following ongoing day-to-day
corporate services that supports the
delivery of external services to the
community.
Internal Services
Related assets the
Council is responsible for
managing and maintaining
Asset Planning and Management
• Asset and infrastructure management
• Project management for major asset development
• Survey and design
Contract Management
• Management of Service Level Agreements and budgets
• Management of Contracts
Council Buildings, Facilities and Property
• Provision and maintenance of operational buildings
• Provision and maintenance of commercial buildings and properties
• Management of Council’s property portfolio – sales, acquisitions, leases
and licenses, road dealings and easements
Customer Service
• Call Centre
• Front Counter Services / Business Information Centre
•
•
•
•
•
Administrative
headquarters – 1
Commercial buildings – 7
Operational land – 360
sites
Depot buildings - 2
Customer Service
Centres - 2
Central warehousing and purchasing
Financial Management
• Long term financial model and strategy
• Investment management
• Annual Council financial budget
• Financial reporting
• Accounts payable and receivable
• Rate levying and collection
• 87 - heavy plant
equipment and vehicles
Fleet
• Provision, management and maintenance of the Council’s fleet
(eg. flowcon, jet-patcher,
road maintenance crew
trucks, waste collection
units, backhoes, graders,
heavy rollers etc
• 150 - light fleet vehicles
(eg. operational utilities,
4WD, passenger vehicles)
• 24 - towed Plant (trailers
and site-caravans)
• 58 - small plant items
(mowers, rock hammers,
etc.)
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
61
Internal Services
Related assets the
Council is responsible for
managing and maintaining
Governance
• Councillor support and advice
• Council meeting support
• Local election support
• Civic responsibilities/ events
• Internal auditing and probity
•
•
•
•
Legal advice coordination / delegations
Compilation of Annual Report
Freedom of Information management
Coordination of complaints management and registers for grants, policies,
delegations, political donations, pecuniary interests and legal matters
• Media management coordination
Human Resource Management
• Strategic Human Resource Planning
• Organisational and cultural change and management support
• Remuneration policy and management
• Employee/industrial relations
• Human Resource policy and procedure
• Occupational Health and Safety / rehabilitation / workers compensation
• Enterprise Risk management
• Recruitment services
• Payroll services
• Training and development services
Information Management
•
•
•
•
•
Communications
Land information
Information Technology
Internet services
Records
Printing
• Printing and laminating
• Various IT hardware /
software
• Various printing equipment
Strategic Planning for the City
• Strategic planning for the City – transport, environment, recreation, culture
and urban design
• Provision and updating of the Local Environment Plan and other required
statutory land use plans
Strategic Planning for the Organisation
• Integrated corporate planning and reporting as required by legislation
• Strategic service planning
• Planning for a sustainable organisation
• Corporate sustainability initiatives
• Monitoring and reporting on organisational performance
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
62
External Services
Blue Mountains City Council provides
the following ongoing day-to-day
external services for the community.
External Services
Burial and Ashes Placement
• Provision of cemeteries and ashes placement sites
• Burial and ashes placement management and booking service
• Maintenance of cemeteries and ashes placement sites
• Provision and maintenance of cemeteries
Related assets the Council
is responsible for managing
and maintaining
• Cemeteries – 9
Children and Families
• Provision of Council buildings used for child care and pre-schools
•
•
•
•
Family Day Care
In Home Care
Vacation Care
Maintenance of Council buildings used for child care and pre-schools
Community Development
• Advocacy for services for general community and special needs groups
– Aboriginal people, children, families, youth, older people, people with a
disability
• Advocacy for and management of community development funding
• Community events and celebrations support
• Provision of public halls and community buildings
• Bookings service for public halls and community buildings
• Maintenance of public halls and community buildings
• Community Facilities,
Buildings and Halls – 58
Community Safety
• Advocacy for safety services from other providers
• Safety and Crime Prevention Committee Support
Cultural Development
• Provision of cultural facilities and physical assets
• Advocacy for cultural services from other providers
• Advocacy for and management of cultural development funding
• Cultural events and festival support
• Cultural industries support
• Maintenance of cultural facilities and physical assets
Economic Development
• Local business and industry support
• Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute support
Emergency Management
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Provision of fire trails
Provision of RFS /SES buildings
Advocacy for emergency management services from other providers
Bushfire mitigation
Emergency response coordination
Hazard reduction control
Maintenance of RFS /SES buildings
Maintenance of fire trails
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
• Rural Fire Service / SES
Buildings – 34
• Fire trails – 167,829 square
metres
63
External Services
Related assets the Council
is responsible for managing
and maintaining
Environmental Health and Regulatory Compliance
• Domestic animal management
• Domestic swimming pools compliance
• Dumped rubbish / abandoned vehicle control
• Environmental health – regulation, approvals and inspections
•
•
•
•
•
•
Building fire safety compliance
Food premises inspections
On-site effluent systems inspections
Roads Act approvals
Vegetation / tree removal approvals
Water quality testing – commercial pools
Environmental Management
• Advocacy for environmental management services from other providers
• Bush regeneration
• Bushfire management
• Cities for Climate Protection coordination
• Environmental education
• Landfill remediation
• Stream bank restoration
• Threatened Species Recovery
• Vegetation clearing control
• Water quality monitoring - ecological and recreational
• Bush regeneration
• Fire mitigation
• Natural areas (bushland)
– 11,000 hectares
• Creeks (within Council
managed land) – 363
kilometres
• Volunteer programs - Bushcare / Land care
• Weed control - urban and natural areas
Land Use Management
• Building inspection / construction certification
• Development assessment
• Development monitoring and enforcement
• Protection of the natural environment through regulation
• Protection of heritage values and buildings through regulation
• Permits for weddings and filming on Council land
Library and Information
• Provision of libraries
• Aboriginal Knowledge Centre
• Community Information
• Computers / Internet public access
• Library programs and lending services
• Local Studies and family history
• Maintenance of libraries
Stormwater
• Flood plain management
• Provision of stormwater drainage / infrastructure
• Maintenance of stormwater drainage / infrastructure
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
• Libraries – 6
• Drainage pits – 7,296
• Open drains – 60km
• Drainage pipes – 145km
64
External Services
Related assets the Council
is responsible for managing
and maintaining
Waste
• Provision of Waste Management Facilities
• Bulky waste collection
• Green waste chipping
• Recycling collection (kerbside)
• Waste Management
Facilities – 4 (2 active)
• Waste collection
• Operation of Katoomba and Blaxland Waste Management Facilities
Sport and Recreation
• Provision of sport and recreation facilities including:
° Aquatic and Leisure Centres
° Clubhouses
° Lookouts
° Ovals and sportsgrounds
° Parks and playgrounds
° Public toilets in parks
° Reserves and picnic areas
° Skate parks
° Sporting amenity buildings
° Tennis and netball courts
° Walking trails
• Sports Council support
• Sportsground bookings
• Maintenance of sport and recreation facilities including:
° Clubhouses
°
°
°
°
• Leisure and Aquatic Centres
–5
• Parks – 105
• Sportsgrounds – 29 at 23
locations
• Playing courts – 62 at 22
locations
• Skate parks – 4
• Walking trails – 96km
Parks and playgrounds
Public toilets in parks
Sporting amenity buildings
Sportsgrounds
• Health and fitness Programs
• Swimming programs
Tourism
• Provision of caravan parks for tourist accommodation
• Provision of Visitor Information Centre buildings
• Advocacy for tourism services from local and regional providers
• Support for tourism initiatives and tourism organisations including Blue
Mountains Tourism Ltd
• Tourism promotion
• Maintenance of Visitor Information Centres
• Caravan Parks – 2
• Visitor Information Centres
–2
• Maintenance of caravan parks for tourist accommodation
Town Centre Amenity
• Provision of public open space, street furniture, trees, massed plantings,
turfed areas, monuments and public toilets in town centres
Advocacy and liaison on town centre amenity
Town centres cleansing
Town litter bin collection
Maintenance of public open space, street furniture, trees, massed
plantings, turfed areas, monuments and public toilets in town centres
• Car parking control and enforcement in town centres
•
•
•
•
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
• Town Centres - 17
• Public toilets – 65
65
External Services
Related assets the Council
is responsible for managing
and maintaining
• Guardrails, fences – 25,175
metres
Traffic Management
• Provision of traffic facilities, signs and line marking
• Local Traffic Committee support
• Traffic safety
• Maintenance of traffic facilities, signs and line marking
Transport and Public Access (including Roads)
• Provision of:
°
Roads
°
Bus shelters / bus stops
°
Carparks
°
Community bus
°
Cycle ways
°
Footpaths
°
Street lighting
• Great Western Highway widening and upgrades – advocacy on behalf of
community
• Integrated Transport Forum support
• Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) Services
• Maintenance of:
°
Roads
°
Bus shelters / bus stops
°
Carparks
°
°
°
• Signage general – 8,122
• Signage regulatory,
warning, hazard – 9,343
• Marked crossings – 50
• Round-a-bouts – 19
• Pedestrian refuges – 37
• Wombat crossings - 29
• Sealed Road pavement
– 637km
• Footpath / cycleway
pavement – 160km
• Keb and Gutter – 493km
• Bridges – 34
• Carparks - 164km2
• Bus shelters – 127
Community bus
Cycle ways
Footpaths
• Street lighting
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
66
Appendix 2 BMCC Staff Survey and Workshop
The internal stakeholder workshop was
held on 8 September 2008 and was
opened by the General Manager, Phil
Pinyon. The introductory presentation
was open to all interested staff
from across the organisation. The
presentation provided an overview
of the current scientific modelling
and an outline of risk management
in the context of climate change. The
detailed workshop that followed was
attended by 23 staff from across the
Council’s three Groups and including
the Executive Services Branch. The
development of the attendance list
for this important workshop was
undertaken by the Corporate Planning,
Assets and Environmental Management
branches and Climate Risk with the aim
to maximise participation. A pre-reading
document prepared by Climate Risk
and titled “An Introduction to Climate
Change Hazards for Local Government”
was circulated to invited staff for their
information prior to the workshop. The
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
aim of this was to introduce climate
change issues and what they mean
for Local Government. An on-line
questionnaire was also circulated to
gauge the current levels of knowledge
on climate change in the organisation.
In the first part of the detailed workshop
small multidisciplinary groups
identified potential impacts arising
from climate variables and determined
the Blue Mountains vulnerability to the
impact. The second component of the
workshop was to then assign likelihood
ratings to each of the impacts. Using
a combination of the likelihood and
vulnerability ratings, a final risk rating
was identified for each of the potential
impacts.
At the end of the day, a prioritised list of
potential climate change impacts that
will possibly influence our core business
provision now and in the future was
developed.
67
BMCC Climate Change Risk Assessment - Internal Stakeholders Workshop
8 September 2008
Attendance list
Branch / Group
Name:
Tourism - Experience Development Coordinator
Wendy Dollin
Program Leader - Community Outcomes
Maurice Brady
Aged and Disability Officer
Prue Hardgrove
Manager Corporate and Community Outcomes
Rosemary Dillon
Program Leader Bushfire and Emergencies
Alan Holley
Economic Development Officer
Bronwen Johnston
Manager - Assets and Contract Management
Alan Cattermole
Program Leader Property and Facilities
Gerry Hayes
Strategic Planning Specialist - Transport
Glenn Sherlock
Team Leader - Civil Assets
Tony Moore
Team Leader - Rec. Development
Elizabeth Dudley
Bestow
Investigations and Traffic Engineer
Graham Green
Risk Management Co-ordinator
John Odgers
Principal Development Engineer
Paul Koen
Manager Operations
Damien Drew
Team Leader Survey and Design
Graeme Patterson
Executive Principal Planning
Will Langevard
Manager Waste and Support Services
Ken Phillips
Program Leader Waste and Support Services
Wayne Lund - Sally
Thompson
Manager City Planning
Andy Turner
Catchment Engineer
Martin Ryzak
Sustainability Education officer
Robbie Beale
Manager Environmental Management
Frank Garofalow
Bushland Management Officer
Eric Mahoney
Natural Systems Program Leader
Geoffrey Smith
Bushlands
Chris Dewhurst
General Manager
Phil Pinyon
Group Manager, Environmental and Customer Service
Robert Greenwood
Executive Officer
Julie Bargenquast
Manager Finance
Neil Farquharson
Communications Officer
Adrienne Murphy
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
68
Survey Response
staff responded to the survey with a
summary of the results as follows:
Prior to the workshop a survey was sent
to BMCC staff members to ascertain
an understanding of current climate
change knowledge and issues. Twelve
Question
Question 1. Describe your awareness /
understanding to the following
Response
Poor
OK
Neutral
Good
Very Good
General
Understanding of
climate change
8.3%
33.3%
15.7%
15.7%
25%
Aware of climate
change impacts in
their unit /division
15.7%
25.0%
15.7%
50.0%
0.0%
Aware of climate
change actions in
their unit / division
15.7%
41.7%
25.0%
0.0%
15.7%
Question 2. What do you see as the
most pressing climate related issues for
your division/unit?
This was a qualitative question with the
responses being:
•
Managing biodiversity
•
Energy consumption
•
Climate impact on gardens therefore festivals
•
Landfill gas emissions
•
Increased storm / flood / fire damage
to infrastructure
•
Enforcing BASIX in residential
development approvals
•
Keeping grass growing in parks and
sports fields
•
Fire
•
Assessing the changing values of
risk assessment and its impact on
my program
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
•
New weed species
•
Water consumption
•
Less snow
•
Emissions from transport of waste
•
Erosion due to different rain patterns
•
Flooding
•
Designing appropriate mitigation
strategies
•
Greater demand for indoor/sheltered
recreation activities
Discussion
The sample size was relatively small
(twelve respondents) and did not
provide enough for a statistical
evaluation. However the survey was a
useful guide pre-workshop. The results
show that climate change is an issue
that BMCC staff do consider and have
already identified a range of potential
climate change issues.
69
Appendix 3 Roundtable Stakeholder Discussion
After discussions with Climate Risk it
was decided that the project would be
enhanced and the Council’s leadership
role demonstrated by inviting input
from external stakeholders. As a
result, an additional workshop was
convened after the internal workshop
which invited external stakeholders
in the City to comment on the risks
identified internally by Council staff.
This workshop was held on 28 October
and was attended by 20 representatives
from external agencies including,
Integral Energy, Sydney Water, NSW
Department Education and Training, the
Rural Fire Service and NSW Fire Brigade,
NSW National Parks and Wildlife
Service, Wentworth Area Community
Housing, Blue Mountains World
Heritage Institute, the Blue Mountains
Community Interagency Group, Biznet,
Blue Mountains Conservation Society
and Western Sydney Region of Councils.
The workshop:
•
•
•
•
Provided a forum for participants to
discuss greatest risks / impacts from
climate change in the City;
Informed stakeholders about what
the Council is doing about climate
change risk and adaptation;
Gauged what other stakeholders are
doing about climate change risk and
adaptation; and
Formed linkages between Council
and other stakeholders for future
discussion and collaboration.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
This workshop output will assist in
making the report to council about
climate change risk in the Blue
Mountains more robust and holistic.
Notes from BMCC Climate
Change Risk External
Stakeholders Discussion Tuesday 28th October 2008
In attendance:
1. Dr Karl Mallon – Climate Risk
2. Jen Guice – BMCC
3. Rosemary Dillon – BMCC
4. Vicky Frank – BMCC
5. Dave Allen – BMCC
6. Frank Garafalow – BMCC
7. Dr. Rosalie Chapple – Blue
Mountains World Heritage Institute
8. Nick Sable – Wentworth Area
Community Housing
9. Meredith Osborne – Community
Interagency Group
10. Dave Monahan – National Parks &
Wildlife Service
11. Helen Deane – Blue Mountains
Conservation Society
12. Lynda Davis – Biznet
13. Rob Vincenz – Rural Fire Service
14. Anthony Englund – Integral Energy
15. Fernando Ortega – Sydney Water
16. Adrian Pearson – NSW Dept
Education and Training
17. Colin Berryman – Western Sydney
Region of Councils
18. Steve Douglas – NSW Fire Brigade
70
The following themes were explored:
•
Council Regulation and Planning
Instruments
What is the capacity for existing
infrastructure to cope with increases
in population?
•
Sydney Water – major efforts
in water quality for the Blue
Mountains LGA; there is an
existing strategy to cope with
increased demand, however the
Blue Mountains LGA has a low
risk in this area.
•
Integral - changes in energy
infrastructure and use will
occur with climate change and
increased population density.
Costs of energy will increase as
a result of the CPRS and there is
a need to develop tools to assist
customers in managing their
energy use - the community will
need to focus on low emissions
power supply; there is potential
for power rationing if customers
are not energy efficient; and,
options are required for reducing
peak demand/shifting use to
off-peak. Customers will need
to respond in order to ensure
quality of power remains as
expected.
Standing council regulations and
planning instruments will come under
pressure to manage climate change
risks. The Stakeholder Roundtable
brought forward issues in relation to
the strengthening of regulations and
planning instruments –
•
BMCC planning and regulation
instruments will continue to
be under pressure to contain
development in order to manage
climate risks. Pressure from
developers and State Government
(via decisions in the Land and
Environment Court) will continue.
Retrospective planning standards
are not suitable for dealing with the
new and wicked problems of climate
change.
•
BMCC will need to manage
population increase efficiently. For
example, moving from quarteracre block to medium density
developments; and, using BMCC’s
Local Environment Plan and City
Vision to endorse centralised
population and infrastructure
developments (also resulting
in follow-on benefits such as
affordable housing).
•
Current policies for the delivery of
water and power do not support
local needs, rather they focus on a
supply driven centralised model.
Capital expenditure is needed
to make a transition to improved
infrastructure.
•
BMCC may require increased
funding for the maintenance of
roads and bridges to deal with
Infrastructure
The Stakeholder Roundtable illustrated
the need for increased infrastructure
capacity to deal with changing:
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
71
the potential for increased flash
flooding.
•
Importantly, the emergency
response in the Blue Mountains LGA
is already excellent as a result of
dealing with bush fires. This is an
asset to the BMCC.
•
As BASIX only covers new
developments, of which there
are few in the Blue Mountains
LGA, measures to retrofit existing
building stock must be investigated.
•
Not all services, especially health
services, are available in the BMCC
LGA.
CPRS and Increases in Energy Costs
Increases in temperature will result in
changes to energy use. The BMCC and
community will need to be prepared for
increased energy costs and decreased
energy availability. The Stakeholder
Roundtable brought forward some ideas
surrounding energy use:
•
•
There is a high proportion of
disadvantaged groups in the
Blue Mountains LGA. Increases
in energy costs will compound
existing problems surrounding
disadvantaged groups. An aging
population, poor accessibility
and transport provision, and an
increasing population driving rents
up all combine to create further
issues. Innovative solutions to deal
with energy provision problems
are needed, for example rather
than economic hand-outs for low
income groups, those who may be
heat or cold affected will require
complementary support.
Cost neutral coping strategies,
especially education, should
be encouraged for assisting the
population in being prepared for
changes in weather conditions and
energy availability.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Demographics
The Stakeholder Roundtable identified
that changes in the Blue Mountains
LGA’s demographic profile will impact
upon the area’s ability to adapt to
climate risks:
•
City Vision’s analysis of the
Blue Mountain LGA’s current
demographics indicates that the
population is ageing and young
people are moving away. Part
of the City Vision is to focus on
the Blue Mountains LGA as child
and family friendly through, for
example, encouraging sustainable
local economic development and
affordable and diverse housing
options. How else do we change the
demographics and characteristics
of the area to encourage younger
families to move there?
•
It is important to deal with the
potential impacts of changing
demographics, such as a reduction
in the amount of low cost housing.
•
The Blue Mountains LGA has a very
effective and cohesive community
sector. This is a strength to draw
upon.
72
•
Sustainable tourism needs to
ensure that there is a benefit being
received by local people, including
long term employment. In relation
to tourism issues, there is a fear that
unoccupied ‘holiday houses’ drive
the cost of housing up and push
young people away.
Satellite City
As a satellite City, the Blue Mountains
LGA faces a number of unique problems.
Not only will the area be required to
work in isolation from other cities, it will
also be required to consider the impacts
that decisions of people in other areas,
most importantly Sydney, have on the
Blue Mountains area. The Stakeholder
Roundtable identified the following
issues surrounding the Blue Mountains
area in its context as a satellite city •
Themes for a satellite city – influx of
people, outflux of younger people;
identifying and working within
wealth characteristics; ensuring selfreliance of the LGA; and, creating
strong community infrastructure.
•
Good leadership and cooperation
will be needed between BMCC
and other agencies. Approaches
such as a quadruple bottom line
framework on risks; good leadership
at all levels; and local communities
providing their own leadership and
vision of a sustainable community to
work towards, are required.
•
BMCC needs to continue community
partnerships and to encourage a
whole-of-community education on
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
climate change issues. BMCC is the
primary conduit for education on
these issues in the area.
•
School communities are already
engaged and are a resource to
be tapped into. A viable option is
a student forum around climate
change risks and issues.
•
Adaptation responses must – be
locally-based; include a broader
analysis than just the economic
and must include local community
awareness; develop local industry to
find solutions; address equity issues;
and, invest in local communities.
•
Community housing provision and
retrofitting of older housing stock
– BMCC needs to lead by example
in the retrofitting of old buildings;
require education of tenants and
increasing funding to ensure
retrofitting occurs. When will
implementation begin? BMCC has
a financial issue as a result of rate
pegging – how do we encourage
local communities to take action?
•
There are a variety of other needs
which the area will need to focus
on to encourage self-reliance and
sustainability, including the need to :
•
ensure population increases are
sustainable;
•
be mindful that cost increases
will negatively impact on
small business (the majority
of which who do not own their
own property) and to consider
73
incentives to increase small
business sustainability;
•
enact innovation funding to
increase energy efficiency and
decrease demand;
•
protect stormwater assets and
use environmental flows to
support habitat;
•
invest in National Park
infrastructure to support
recreation opportunities and
local jobs;
•
future proof major
infrastructure;
•
raise the bar on minimum
standards for appliances and
provide support for low-income
groups to purchase efficient
appliances;
•
regulate to ensure use of energy
efficient services such as tanks
and solar hot water; and
•
recognise that changes to
demographics will result in
changes to school resourcing.
The BMCC and Blue Mountains LGA
should focus on their community’s
‘proven winners’ including emergency
response, community organisations
and environment levy in order to bolster
their resilience to climate risks.
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
74
Appendix 4 IPCC Storylines
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Storyrlines
A1. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid
economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.
Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building
and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in
regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into
three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the
energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological
emphasis: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T) or a balance
across all sources (A1B) (where balanced is defined as not relying too heavily on
one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates
apply to all energy supply and end use technologies).
A2. The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world.
The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities.
Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in
continuously increasing population. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change
more fragmented and slower than other storylines.
B1. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with
the same global population, that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter,
as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a
service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and the
introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on
global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability, including
improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives.
B2. The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis
is on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability. It is a
world with continuously increasing global population, at a rate lower than A2,
intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse
technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also
oriented towards environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local
and regional levels.
An illustrative scenario was chosen for each of the six scenario groups A1B, A1FI,
A1T, A2, B1 and B2. All should be considered equally sound.
The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means
that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions
targets of the Kyoto Protocol
(IPCC 2007, p. 18)
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
75
Appendix 5 Complete List of Risks
Identified Extreme Risks
Type of risk
Irregularity, difficult to anticipate intense rainfall events and impacts, infrastructure failure
precipitation
Decreased water quality in natural systems
precipitation
Loss of macro-invertebrates (fish, frogs)
precipitation
Damage to small farming communities
precipitation
Habitat loss, reduced species diversity, loss of threatened/endangered species
precipitation
Increasing maintenance of natural areas, NP, pest management, vermin eradication, weed
management
precipitation
Impacts on waterfalls and creeks – lower flows
precipitation
Damage to piping from lack of groundwater
precipitation
Increased building costs associated with any new regulatory requirements
regulatory
change
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning, community
dissatisfaction
regulatory
change
Assets – loss of control
regulatory
change
New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable
regulatory
change
Infrastructure - Less funding available for maintenance
carbon
constraints
Increased insurance
extreme
weather
Retraining staff
extreme
weather
Higher claims for section 44, risks to assets, council buildings, homes
extreme
weather
House damage/ litigation increase from flooding
extreme
weather
Road flooding – accidents, school and work closures, damage to infrastructure, drain blockages,
risk to public safety
extreme
weather
More pressure on emergency services
extreme
weather
Housing stability
extreme
weather
Damage to housing and buildings from the impact of wind on fires
extreme
weather
Decreased economic viability as tourism slows
tertiary
impacts
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Identified Extreme Risks
Type of risk
Loss of biodiversity
temperature
Inadequate hospital capacity to deal with heatwave events
temperature
Higher pressure on electricity services (e.g. air-conditioning) – power failure
temperature
Public health and OHS impacts on outdoor workers – risk to worker safety, CWP and building
maintenance, sporting facilities, skin cancer
temperature
Ecological changes, native vegetation, weeds, weed infestation, water quality
temperature
Increased fire frequency and intensity fuelled by winds with fireballs – high intensity fire –
impacting on renewal of ecosystems
temperature
Human safety e.g. fires wipe out walking tracks with safety barriers, injury, death
temperature
Damage to property and assets
temperature
Extended fire season – reduced capacity to service – resource stretch, inability for fire fighters to
extinguish fires
temperature
Reduced forward planning –back burning/hazard management
temperature
Tourist impact – prolonged season reduces tourism, affects image, economic impacts
temperature
Business – loss of productivity and council operations
temperature
Ecosystem and tourist features (e.g. Grose Valley, Blue Gum forest) – long term damage due to
unnatural fire patterns, maturation cycle of trees not met
temperature
Pollution impacts (e.g. increases in air conditioning use to filter the air) – lack of visibility, smoke air
pollution
temperature
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Identified High Risks
Type of risk
Water table management from bores and heat problems with impacts on ecosystem
precipitation
More hail events – damage to property and infrastructure, litigation, relocation
precipitation
Costs associated with retrofit of water supply
precipitation
Road cracking, building cracking, damage to foundations
precipitation
Loss of recreation amenity
precipitation
Damage to stormwater infrastructure
precipitation
New DA laws may override our view of what is acceptable
regulatory
change
Increased fuel prices – reduce travel and visitation, increased food prices, decrease of vehicles
on GBH, restricted access to basic services (but better positioned for domestic tourism due to
proximity to Sydney)
carbon
constraints
Energy costs for heating during winter in upper mountain and cooling in lower mountain
carbon
constraints
Spreading of weeds
extreme
weather
Damage to property from increased hail intensity and size
extreme
weather
Biodiversity loss
extreme
weather
Roof removals
extreme
weather
Business preparedness / underinsurance for these issues to recover from an event
extreme
weather
Public safety, safety in traffic
extreme
weather
Sewerage impacts due to increased rainfall
extreme
weather
Soil impacts – erosion, loss of vegetation, landslides, loss of walking tracks
extreme
weather
Habitat loss – world heritage integrity, reduced tourism
extreme
weather
Impact on recreational facilities and sporting fields – closures, social impacts, increased
reliance on reticulated water
extreme
weather
Transport corridors blocked by fallen trees
extreme
weather
Buildings design not built to suit environment
extreme
weather
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Identified High Risks
Type of risk
Assets – increased costs due to higher maintenance requirements
insurance
Increased costs to councils due to extra population moving to BMCC area
tertiary
impacts
Vulnerability of single transport routes
temperature
Health events (e.g. age, sunburn, less external activities particularly as aging population are
requiring more covered recreational areas)
temperature
Increased water usage – bore and surface
temperature
Ageing population vulnerable to heat stress
temperature
People influx from humid areas
temperature
Loss of public/private gardens due to lack of water – tourism impacts
temperature
Blocked transport corridors, displaced corridors
temperature
Fire fighting activities stop other council work occurring
temperature
Health impacts of asthma patients
temperature
Community knee jerk reaction – removal of more trees than necessary for protection
temperature
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Identified Medium Risks
Type of risk
Soil erosion due to loss of vegetation
precipitation
Higher rates of suicide during drought
precipitation
Tree root growth in periods of low rain and increased heat damaging infrastructure
precipitation
Costs associated with green power consumption
regulatory
change
Assist residents with take up of rebates and grants e.g. solar power
regulatory
change
Increased costs to councils due to extra responsibilities (e.g. cost shifting from state
government, increased training, skill development costs)
regulatory
change
Generic metro planning unsuitable for Blue Mountains – inadequate or over-planning,
community dissatisfaction
regulatory
change
Assets – loss of control
regulatory
change
Increasing building costs – reduction in development
carbon
constraints
Council development and monitoring – increased costs and staff, training costs,
increased skill development, delays in getting up to speed, more complex
assessments, delays in approvals
carbon
constraints
Dam may fail if greater 1:10,000 re spillway e.g. road closures, remove 10 houses,
village shopping centre, railway, highway
extreme
weather
Lightning damage to property
extreme
weather
Lightning strikes start bushfires
extreme
weather
Increased costs associated with emergency housing
extreme
weather
Higher funding for RFS, SES
extreme
weather
Cost to clean up downed trees
extreme
weather
Power outages and age of substations to respond
extreme
weather
Inter-agency works are not undertaken taking account of climate change e.g. limited
underground electricity cabling with RTA widening of highway
extreme
weather
Council – underwriting more activities, increased risk e.g. community activities
insurance
Development – reduced opportunities, insurance availability, uninsurable property
insurance
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Identified Medium Risks
Type of risk
Loss of environmental amenity from increased development pressures
tertiary
impacts
Tourism will be affected by fewer snow days (appeal factor)
temperature
Limited budget to retrofit infrastructure during warmer winters
temperature
Higher rates of aggravated crime
temperature
Increased use of swimming pools
temperature
Increased power outages
temperature
Impact on business from absentees/ inaccessibility to employment centres –
commuting to CBD etc
temperature
Impact on vegetation from pre-emptive clearing
temperature
Identified Low Risks
Type of risk
Buckling of rail tracks
temperature
Water tanks may be faced with health risks due to quality
precipitation
Low income households, increased defaults, increased crime
carbon constraints
Reduced revenue from tips as opened up to allow dumping of debris
extreme weather
Public relations
extreme weather
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Appendix 6 Current Adaptive Measures
Adaptation – Building on
Current Activities
The following sections discuss the
current activities which can provide
a platform for the BMCC to build
appropriate mitigation and adaptation
activities to bolster their resilience to
climate change.
Service Provision and Asset
Management
The following activities undertaken by
BMCC will need particular focus in the
context of climate change based on the
risks identified in this Report:
•
Environmental Management
Current BMCC environmental
management includes stream bank
restoration, threatened species
recovery, water quality monitoring
(for both ecological and recreational
purposes), weed control and waste
water systems management (BMCC
2008-2009 Management Plan, pg. 35).
•
Land Use Management
Current BMCC land use management
includes development assessment,
monitoring and reporting that complies
with statutory requirements and in
the context of a bushfire prone and
environmentally sensitive environment.
Bushfire Management
The BMCC currently undertakes a
range of activities in relation to bushfire
management including preparation of
bushfire strategic plans, liaison with the
Rural Fire Services, fire hazard reduction
programs, regulation of private property
in relation to bushfire hazards and
provision and maintenance of rural fire
stations (BMCC 2008-2009 Management
Plan, pg. 58).
•
•
Stormwater and Drainage
The BMCC is responsible for the
management and maintenance of
stormwater drainage in the City
including drainage structures
and drainage pipes as well as the
development of flood plans (BMCC
Management Plan, pg. 35).
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Carbon Constraints and Reducing
Resource Consumption
The BMCC is currently undertaking a
range of mitigation activities supporting
the reduction of the Council’s and
community’s greenhouse gas
emissions. BMCC can build upon the
skills and attitudes fostered through a
focus on mitigation to create a strong
adaptation program. The following
are some examples of climate change
mitigation activities:
•
BMCC is already a member of
the Cities for Climate Protection
Program and intends to continue
participating in this program.
•
BMCC has an existing Energy and
Water Strategy aimed at reducing
community and BMCC GHG
emissions. Targets include reducing
council energy consumption by 10%
82
by 2012 (based on 2004 baseline date
for Cities for Climate Protection),
and reducing water consumption by
20% by 2010 (based on 2002-2003
baseline State government data)
(BMCC 2008).
•
BMCC subscribes to Planet Footprint
reporting to monitor the Council’s
energy and water consumption.
•
Under State government
requirements BMCC is
implementing BASIX (Building
Sustainability Index). Targets under
this program include ensuring new
dwellings meet a 40% reduction
in water consumption, and in
comparison to the average home,
a 40% reduction in GHG emissions
(BMCC 2008).
•
BMCC is encouraging sustainable
transport options through:
•
Increasing the length of off-road
shared cycleways by 3.6km over
2004 to 2008.
•
Upgrading Council’s operational
fleet euro 3 to euro 4 standard
(BMCC 2008)
•
Expansion of BMCCs internet
based services
planning and human resource planning,
provides a strong framework in which to
incorporate climate change risk issues
and adaptation strategies.
Strategic Planning for the
Organisation - Integrated Planning
and Reporting
The BMCC’s focus on integrated
planning including service planning,
asset planning, long term financial
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Climate Risk Pty Limited (Australia)
Sydney:
Brisbane:
+61 2 8243 5767
+61 7 3040 1621
www.climaterisk.net
Climate Risk Europe Limited
London: + 4 4 752 506 8331
Blue Mountains City Council Risk Assessment
Climate Risk
84