Download New York Times - City Tech OpenLab

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the U.S.
• A recent study conducted by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research finds that economic costs will be
far-reaching and affect all geographic areas of the
nation if nothing is done.
• The CIER research finds that the impact of climate change
events will affect both the natural environment and existing
infrastructure
• Their report reviews several economic studies…
• And relates these to several predicted climate change
impacts.
Source: Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental
Research, University of Maryland.
Impacts in the U.S.
• Effects experienced across all regions, but the
severity will be “unevenly distributed across regions
and within the economy and society.1”
• It is estimated that for sectors of the economy that
provide essential goods and services, the negative
effects will be significantly greater than the positive.
• The impact of climate change will severely strain
government budgets – local, state and federal.
• Secondary effects: higher prices, reduced income
and job losses2
1Matthias
Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative
Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental
Research, University of Maryland
2 Ibid.
Economic Sectors/Industries most directly affected
1. Agriculture
• In some parts of the nation, growing conditions will
improve as temperatures continue to rise (colder
regions become warmer)
• Other parts of the nation are projected to see
worsening conditions as water resources dwindle,
rainfall becomes more frequent (or infrequent), and
land becomes unsuitable for farming.
• Changes in climate are also associated with an increase
in the spread of pests and plant diseases that
previously would not have had an impact (CIER)
In Western U.S.: A recent New York Times report1 notes that
the glaciers of Glacier National Park in Montana are
rapidly disappearing, threatening the ecosystem of the
Western U.S. The report notes:
“A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian
border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of
feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky
fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25
survive. In 30 years, there may be none”.
• Following the winter thaw, melting ice has provided a vital
source of water for residents and farmers downstream.
• But as a result of a warming climate, the glaciers are
disappearing.
1Source:
MICHAEL WINES “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York Times,
November 22, 2014.
Natural Resources Defense Council. Climate Change Threatens Health, http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/drought.asp
• …and the peak flow of water from the melting glaciers is
starting much earlier in Spring and ending much too soon –
before crops are ready to be harvested – resulting in
water shortages when demand is at its peak...resulting in an
imbalance in the demand and supply for water.
Agriculture severely impacted. What other affects from this?
• Other sectors of the economy affected?
2. Recreation – ski resorts: “Mountain snow packs are
shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures have
increasingly changed snows to rain.” Tourism dollars shrink
3. Population: Many densely populated cities & towns south of
glaciers; including a very large number of businesses.
4. Wildlife/ecosystems: as habitats disappear, species die out
or are threatened.
1Source:
MICHAEL WINES “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York
Times, November 22, 2014. Photo: Lauren Grabelle for The New York Times
Northeastern U.S.
2. Infrastructure/buildings/transportation systems
especially in coastal areas are highly vulnerable.
• Value of residential and commercial property in
northeast was estimated by CIER to be $4 trillion in
2004; a decade later, this value is clearly more.
• Interestingly, the Center’s analysis in 2004 predicted the
damages from a category 4 hurricane hitting a major
metropolitan area as costing between $50 and $60
billion in insurance losses.
• The estimated losses to property and businesses from
Hurricane Sandy in 2012 reached an estimated $65
billion.
• The estimated losses to property, businesses and
infrastructure from Hurricane Sandy in 2012:
• Total $65 billion1
• New Jersey: $38.6 billion2
• New York: $32 billion- statewide; $19 billion in New
York City3
• MTA: $4.75 billion in infrastructure losses; $246 million
in lost revenue2.
Predicted losses from sea level rise: The study predicted (in
2004) a sea level rise in the northeast-mid Atlantic region
of 20 inches by year 2100.
1 USA Today, “Hurricane Sandy, drought cost U.S. $100 billion.” Jan. 25, 2013
2 CNN,
“Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts,” Nov. 5, 2014
3 New York Times, “Hurricane Sandy’s Rising Costs”, November 27, 2012
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,”
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf
• However, a more recent estimate notes that “From 1993
to 2008, the global rate has risen to 0.11 to 0.13 inch
per year,”(Union of Concerned Scientists).
• At this rate – an increase of an average .12 inch per
year – would mean that this 20 inch threshhold would not
be reached in 2100; however, if accelerated rates of
rising seas are factored in, it well could.
• Many of the CIER study’s cost estimates of climate change
related damage – made ten years ago – are
interestingly quite accurate.
• For instance, the study notes the cost of and type of
protections that would be needed to protect vulnerable
coastal areas.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,”
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf
For instance, the following is one conclusion and
recommendation:
“Constructing sea wall and bulkhead protection for just 25% of the
length of the region’s coastline would cost from roughly $300 million
to just under $8 billion. Constructing dikes or levees to protect against
a one-meter rise in sea level would run from $300 million to just over
$1.5 billion for a quarter of the coastline.”
These are all enormous economic costs: And the reading
covered in last week’s class talked about plans for precisely
such projects in the New York area that are planned for the
near future.
2. Income loss
• Losses to tourism industries from snow melt; flood;
drought.
• This translates to $millions in lost income to businesses and
workers as jobs once in demand dwindle with weak
business conditions.
• Losses to agricultural industries from lower output.
• Losses to fisheries from depleted species.
• Rising government indebtedness resulting from needs to
invest in rebuilding and repairing damaged
infrastructure.
• Vulnerability of a significant percentage of nation’s
population living in coastal areas to lost jobs and business
resulting from a severe weather event or disaster
www.umces.edu
Source: Purdue Univ. http://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/+2009/climatechange-maps.jpg