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Climate Variability and Climate Change 1. Definitions • 1. Definitions The Climate System; Natural and Forced Variability 2. Natural Variability • • • Volcanic Eruptions (scattering particles) Changes in the Solar Luminosity Climate Variability 4. Forced Change (human) • • Burning of fossil fuels (increasing GH gases) Burning of biomass (scattering particles) • The Climate System; Natural and Forced Variability 2. Natural Variability North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation 3. Forced Change (natural) Climate Variability and Climate Change • North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation 3. Forced Change (natural) • • Volcanic Eruptions (scattering particles) Changes in the Solar Luminosity 4. Forced Change (human) Climate Change 1. Definitions: • • Burning of fossil fuels (increasing GH gases) Burning of biomass (scattering particles) Agents of Climate Change: Forcing • The Climate system – What is included: the coupled atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice system – What usually isn t included: • things that don t have much effect on the climate system • things that change on very long (geologic) time scales are usually considered external to the climate system – Examples: changes in location of continents and oceans, changes in land topography) • Natural Variability – Variations in climate that are due to internal interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface and sea ice. • Examples: year-to-year differences in storminess in the Pacific Northwest, drought, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation, etc. Climate can change due to external forcing • Natural Forcing – Examples: Volcanoes (scattering particles " ) changes in the Earth s orbit changes in the solar luminosity (So) ! • Human Forcing – Examples: emissions of greenhouse gases ( " ) aerosols (tiny particles " ) land use changed (albedo " , etc) ! ! ! Climate Variability and Climate Change Radiative Forcing • Radiative Forcing (RF) is a measure of the change in the energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system when factor(s) that affect climate are altered. (IPCC 07) – The RF is calculated instantaneously to the alteration (ie, before the atmosphere adjusts to the change) – Called radiative because the process that communicates the net change in energy is electromagnetic radiation • A positive Radiative Forcing results in a net increase in downward energy and thus will lead to a warming of the surface. Examples of RF: 1. Definitions • The Climate System; Natural and Forced Variability 2. Natural Variability • North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino/Southern Oscillation 3. Forced Change (natural) • • Volcanic Eruptions (scattering particles) Changes in the Solar Luminosity 4. Forced Change (human) increase in the solar luminosity increase in greenhouse gas concentration • RF allows one to assess and compare the relative importance of different natural and human-induced forcings on climate • • Burning of fossil fuels (increasing GH gases) Burning of biomass (scattering particles) 2. Examples of Natural Variability 2. Examples of Natural Variability • The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (year to year variations in the wintertime storminess in the N. Atlantic) • El Nino/Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the dominant pattern of climate variability on year-to-year time scales • The physics responsible for ENSO are localized in the tropical Pacific, but ENSO causes global climate anomalies 1860 1900 1940 1980 ENSO Changes in the distribution of sea surface temperature are coordinated with changes in atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns; Temperature Anomalies! Precipitation Anomalies Color maps show local correlation with Nino3.4 -- a good index of the state of ENSO Nino3.4 ! SOI (Tahiti -Darwin)! Sea Level Pressure!