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CLIMATE CHANGE IN MEDITERRANEAN REGION: Vulnerability and Adaptation Opportunities Abdeltif EL OUAHRANI (1) & Abderrahmane MERZOUKI (1) (2) (1) University Abdelmaled Essaâdi, Tétouan, Morocco, (2) Universidad de Granada, Spain [email protected]; [email protected] Introduction: Mediterranean features & Climate Change As a cross boundary issue, Climate Change (CC) is seen as an avoidable challenge for scientists, economists as well as policy makers. Mediterranean region is one of the most vulnerable places in term of CC. It is also extremely vulnerable to global changes due to it geo-strategic position in the world. Together, global and climate changes affect seriously sustainable development in this region. It is a heterogeneous space embracing both developed and developing countries, with diverse social, economic and political systems. Though land use intensity and water scarcity are among it main characteristics, it has underwent a long history of intensive anthropogenic activities relied mostly on natural resources. These special features make the Mediterranean region as model area for integrated research and policies into change-related impacts at global level. Risks Area MAJOR CLIMATIC TENDENCIES PHYSICAL IMPACTS Ecosystems Storms (winds) Global Change Elevation of sea surface temperatures Variation of marine currents Augment/ dimin. Modification of average hydrological regimes Floods precipitation s Mitigation of ecological zones Agriculture Tourism Appearance of new ecological zones (wetland) Industry Water Impoverishment of aquifers Energy Modification of river flows Mitigation Soil Sea level evolution SOCIETIES & THEIR ACTIVITIES Modification of Biodiversity richness Droughts Landslides CONSEQUENCE S ON Pedological impoverishment Geopolitic al tensions Soil erosion Submersion Spac Salinisation (of soil and water aquifer) Figure 3. Foreseeable changes in sea surface temperature in winter (a) and summer (b) from 2070 to 2099 compared to 1961 to 1990 ( Somot et al., 2007) Vulnerability Index Heat waves Decrease of GWR CONSEQUENCE S ON RESOURCES e Surface Loss of (littoral) Widening of inequality (at the basin and country scales) The use of different colours and lines for the arrows serves only to facilitate the appraisal of the links existing between the major climatic tendencies, physical impacts, consequences on natural resources and effects on societies. The same applies for the coloured boxes for the impacts and consequences. Figure 5. Some examples of "chains of impacts" that explain the effects of major climatic changes on future human activities (IDDRI, 2009). GWR decrease & SI (direct & Indirect, gradual & one-off) Augment./di min. air temperature Adaptation Opportunities: Since climate change is a across boundary issue, the adaptation opportunities are started by a cross boundary Initiatives to discuss different aspect of climate change in the Mediterranean. Recently climate change induced networking (water, energy, wildfire, …) could be seen as fruitful opportunities to build adaptation capacity in the Mediterranean region which is mostly populated by rural communities (notable in SERCs) relying mainly on natural resources particularly sensitive to climate variability. Hence, rural communities seem to have less option capacities to endure or adapt to climate change impacts. However, some recent studies on vulnerability and adaptation capacity to climate changes (Glwadys & Claudia, 2009) showed that most vulnerable regions to climate change have also higher adaptation capacity. They seen vulnerability to climate change more linked to intrinsic social and economical development, and hence an opportunities to boost development in such regions.. Figure 6. Localisation of adaptation plans/strategies and projects (IDDRI, 2009) Figure 4. Impact (Decrease of GWR), Vulnerability Index (VI) and sensitivity Index (SI) of groundwater resources (GWR) for the example of the Mediterranean region and the ECHAM4 A2 scenario in the 2050s (Döll, 2009). The global maps of vulnerability to the impact of decreased groundwater recharge in the 2050s revealed highest vulnerabilities and sensitivity Index in the North African-rim of the Mediterranean Sea. Figure 7. Concentrating Solar Power for Europe, Middle East and North Africa – A Roadmap to 2050 http://www.german-renewable-energy.com The earth receives an incredible supply of solar energy – the sun provides enough energy in one minute to supply the world’s energy needs for a full year. In one day it provides more energy than our current population would consume in 27 years (Middle East Electricity: http://www.middleeastelectricity.com/ ) North Africa alone could provide the EU with 700,000 GW-hours per year of electricity by 2050 through an interconnected electric grid, according to the European Commission's DirectorateGeneral for Energy and Transportation (Egypt tries Concentrating Solar Power http://www.metimes.com ). By 2050, twenty power lines with 5000 MW capacity could be developed, each providing about 15 % of the European electricity demand by solar imports (Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power http://www.dlr.de ) Figure 2. Annual mean changes of the surface air temperature (K; left column) and precipitation (mm/day; right column) for the end of the 20th century, simulated by the LMDZ AGCM with stretched grids over the Mediterranean Sea. From top to bottom are three climate Models for the IPCC-A2 emission scenario as given by three different global coupled climate models, i.e. IPSL, CNRM and GFDL, respectively (Ulbrich et al., in press). (4Degrees & Beyond) Two IPCC emission scenarios (SRES: A2 & B2) are most likely will characterise the Mediterranean climate change. For the last third of the 21st century, the summer season likely will records a 6oC in A2 and above 5oC in B2 (max warming in northern-rim regions), while in winter the projected temperature rise is about 1 to 2oC (max warming in southern-rim inland regions). CO N CL US IO N Figure 1. GHG emissions and temperature increase at the global scale according to the different SRES scenarios (Source: IPCC, 2007). Precipitation regimes show uniform decrease all over the Mediterranean zones. However, the seasonal quantity of showers will increase in both northern and western regions for A2 and B2. On the other hand, A2 scenario shows sever decrease in precipitation compared to B2 (De Castro et al., 2004) After development of more reliable scenarios that predicted the impacts of global warming, the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) concluded that even with stringent mitigation efforts, climate change impacts is unavoidable. Therefore, investing in adaptation options become crucial mainly in the post-2012 negotiations. To start, we need to improve our scientific knowledge assessing vulnerability ´through indexing sensitivity and adaptability potentials in order to fostering pragmatic adaptation strategies applicable to various scales. This poster attempts to urge all stakeholders in Mediterranean regions, to work in close synergy mainly north-south partnership, to avoid local and therefore global warming of 4Degrees and Beyond meanwhile reducing the cost of climate change adaptation. Investing in adaptation options “now” becomes crucial to success in the post-2012 negotiations and beyond. n iti st Du er ar y ©NASA Further Reading & References De Castro M., C. Gallardo, and S. Calabria, 2004. Regional IPCC Projections until 2100 in the Mediterranean Area. In Environmental Challenges in the Mediterranean 2000-2050, Chap 5, p.75-90, Antonio Marquina (ed) NATO Science Series: IV Earth and Environmental Sciences. ©2004 Kluwer Academic publisher ISBN 1-4020-1984-3, Printed in the Netherlands Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo and Claudia Ringler, august 2009. Mapping South African Farming Sector Vulnerability to Climate Change and Variability. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI) Discussion Paper 00885, A Subnational Assessment. Environment and Production Technology Division IDDRI, May 2009. The Future of the Mediterranean: from impacts of climate change to adaptation issues. IPCC, 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp. Meisen P. & L. Hunter, 2007. Renewable Energy Potential of the Middle East, North Africa vs. The Nuclear Development Option. GENI: Global Energy Network Institute. Döll Petra, 2009. Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 (2009) 035006 (12pp) Somot S., Sevault F., Déqué M., Crépon M., 2007. 21st century climate change scenario for the Mediterranean using a coupled AtmosphereOcean Regional Climate Model. Global and Planetary Change, 63, p. 112-126. Ulbrich U., W. May, L. Li, P. Lionello, J.G. Pinto, and S. Somot, (in press, Elsevier) Chapter 8: The Mediterranean Climate Change under Global Warming.