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Annex 14
Center for International Forest Research
Southern Africa Regional Office
Lusaka, Zambia
Report
Climate Change in Zambia: Opportunities for Adaptation
and Mitigation through Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative
By
Samuel Mulenga Bwalya
Peaks Environmental Management Consultants
P.O Box 32632
Lusaka, Zambia
January, 2010
Table of Contents
Contents
Page
Table of Contents................................................................................................................. i
List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... ii
List of acronyms ................................................................................................................ iii
Acknowledgements............................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ v
1. Introduction................................................................................................................. 1
1.1
Objectives of the study........................................................................................ 1
1.2
Approaches and methodology............................................................................. 2
2. Climate variability and impacts .................................................................................. 2
2.1
Climate variability trends.................................................................................... 2
2.2
Areas most vulnerable to climate variability ...................................................... 5
2.3
Future scenarios on climate variability and trends ............................................. 6
2.4
Measures to alleviate adverse impacts of climate variability ............................. 9
3. Climate Change mitigation initiatives ........................................................................ 9
3.1
REDD and AFOLU Policy Initiatives .............................................................. 10
3.2
Clean Development Mechanism Projects ......................................................... 11
4. Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives..................................................................... 11
4.1
NAPAs and National Level Programmes ......................................................... 12
4.1.1
Agriculture and Food Security.................................................................. 12
4.1.2
Human Health ........................................................................................... 14
4.1.3
Natural Resources ..................................................................................... 14
4.1.4
Water and Energy ..................................................................................... 17
4.2
Inventory of potential indigenous adaptation techniques ................................. 17
5. Appraisal of Country engagements in UNFCCC Processes ..................................... 21
6. Appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity ............................................................ 22
7. Appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape ................................................. 25
8. Issues specific case studies ....................................................................................... 34
9. Conclusions and recommendations........................................................................... 37
References......................................................................................................................... 39
i
List of Tables
Table 1: Selected Impacts of climate variability in Zambia (1972—2008)........................ 4
Table 2: Country specific climate variability trends, future scenarios & likely impacts.... 7
Table 3: Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Food Security sector.................... 13
Table 4: Adaptation Measures in the Human Health Sector............................................. 14
Table 5: Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector)................................................. 15
Table 6: Adaptation Measures in Water and Energy Sector............................................. 17
Table 7: Main Impacts of Climate Hazards as identified by Local Communities............ 19
Table 8: Appraisal of country Bio-Carbon capacity in MRV System .............................. 24
Table 9: Summary of Some Actors in Climate Change Issues......................................... 27
Table 10: Summary of Climate Change Studies being undertaken in Zambia................. 29
Table 11: Bio-fuel Projects in Zambia.............................................................................. 35
Table 12: Bio-carbon projects in the country ................................................................... 36
ii
List of acronyms
AER
Agro-Ecological Region
AFOLU
Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use
AIACC
Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change
APINA
Air Pollution Information Network in Africa
CBD
Convention on Biological Diversity
CBU
Copperbelt University
CCFU
Climate Change Facilitation Unit
CDM
Clean Development Mechanism
CEEEZ
Centre for Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia
CIFOR
Centre for International Forestry Research
COMESA
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
COP
Conference of Parties
CSO
Central Statistics Office
DMMU
Disaster Mitigation and Management Unit
DNA
Designated National Authority
ECZ
Environmental Council of Zambia
ENMRD
Environment and Natural Resources Management Department
ENRMMP
Environment and Natural Resource Management and Mainstreaming Programme
FD
Forestry Department
FRA
Forest Resources Assessment Programme
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GHG
Greenhouse Gas
GPG
Good Practice Guidance
ICRAF
World Agro-forestry Centre
IFPRI
International Food Policy Research Institute
ILUA
Integrated Land-Use Assessment
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ITNs
Insect Treated Nets
iii
IUCN
World Conservation Union
JFM
Joint Forestry Management
LULUCF
Land-Use Land-Use Change and Forestry
MACO
Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
MEWD
Ministry of Energy and Water Development
MRV
Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
MTENR
Ministry of Tourism Environment and Natural Resources
NAPA
National Adaptation Programme of Action
NGOs
Non-Governmental Organisation
PDD
Project Design Documents
PINs
Project Idea Notes
RDA
Road Development Agency
REDD
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation
SADC
Southern Africa Development Community
UNCCD
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
UNEP
United Nations Environment Programme
UNFAO
United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNZA
University of Zambia
WMO
World Meteorological Organisation
ZAWA
Zambia Wildlife Authority
ZMD
Zambia Meteorological Department
ZVAC
Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee
iv
Executive Summary
Introduction
The Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative has been requesting African Countries to develop a
comprehensive approach and negotiating position on the broad inclusion of bio-carbon issues in
the new international regime by compiling evidence and developing capacity of African
countries to develop Bio-Carbon programmes and projects. Zambia is one of the countries
earmarked for such activities and has compiled significant evidence base that is highlighted in
this report. The report is based on extensive review of existing published and unpublished
literature, policy documents and projects documents that government has developed and signed
with cooperating partners, and on personal interviews with key stakeholders.
1. The information compiled suggests that Zambia is vulnerable to current and future
climate change and variability. The country has already recorded increases in temperature
and reduced rainfall in the last few decades, with temperatures estimated to increase at
0.6oC every ten years. The frequency of occurrence of extreme events (drought, seasonal
floods and flush floods, extreme temperatures and dry spells) along with their intensity
and magnitude has also increased, and future scenarios for the period 2010-2070 indicate
that temperature will increase further by 2oC and rainfall is projected to decrease by 8-10
percent.
2. The effects and magnitude of the climatic hazards so far experienced indicate that the
county will need to put in place adequate adaptation and mitigation measures to
safeguard public in infrastructure, secure livelihoods and fight poverty induced by
climatic hazards such as floods and droughts. These adverse effects have immensely
impacted on the country’s development programs by diverting much needed fiscal
resources towards mitigating the effects of climate change. These mitigation programs
have ranged from rehabilitation of destroyed physical infrastructure and providing
shorting humanitarian assistance to those affected by floods and droughts. Additional
public resources are be allocated towards adaptation programs aimed at strengthen the
country’s resilience, thereby reducing the funds available to finance core-development
and poverty reduction programmes. In this context, climate change has emerged to be
another development challenges that the country has to deal with in order to ensure that
the recent positive growth trends are sustainable. Since climate change disproportionately
affects the poor who have experience increased incidences of hunger, health epidemics
and loss of shelter and livestock, the country will have to refocus its development
programs in order to make growth pro-poor. Increasing public investment in adaptation
and mitigation and projects enhance the Zambia’s rich environmental and natural
resource assets will help to put the economy on sustainable development path in this era
of climate change. The evidence documented in this report suggest that the government
has adequately embraced climate change issues in its development plans, but more is
needed in terms of resource allocation and program development and implementation.
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3. The country’s adaptive capacity has largely been constrained by inadequate financial and
technical resources that have compounded long-standing structural constraints to growth
and development. Additionally, institutions mandated to contribute to disaster mitigation
efforts lack comprehensive proactive strategies to address climate change induced
disasters, rendering their response to disasters mostly inadequate and transitory. This is
couple by the fact that a majority of the affected people do not have the means to adapt to
climate change, and climate disasters weaken their already stressed capacities by
weakening community assets (through community disruptions) on which they draw to
sustain their livelihoods. This calls for public investments in concrete adaptation
interventions to promote sustainable livelihoods and reduce poverty especially among the
rural poor.
The national climate change adaptation programs
4. The National Adaptation Programme of Action has put in place an appropriate roadmap
which aimed at helping vulnerable sectors and communities to adapt to the adverse
effects of climate change. It also provides a framework for mainstreaming climate change
issues in the national development planning and programs. However, lack of funding has
hampered implementation of identified and prioritised projects.
5. With respect to REDD, the country has commenced preparatory works towards
developing a national REDD Strategy. The ILUA Database in place and current review of
relevant policies present opportunities for effective formulation and implementation of
REDD strategies and other bio-carbon programmes and projects. The country has also
established a Designated National Authority (DNA) to facilitate implementation of CDM
projects. However, there is urgent need to develop its capacity and institutional
framework to promote CDM projects in the country. The country has so far only one
CDM project at an advanced stage of registration with the UNFCCC. Development of
CDM projects in Zambia has been hampered by difficulties in project financing and
certification, weak financial base of potential project developers, lack of CDM
investment portfolios in local financial institutions lending policies, and complicated and
/ or lack of approved methodologies.
6. The country is a signatory to the UNFCCC and has been engaged in the UNFCCC
process through MTENR. Currently, the ministry with other stakeholders have been
having preparatory meetings for the Fifteenth Conference of Parties to be held in
Copenhagen, Denmark. The stakeholders have come up with a country position for
submission to both the Kyoto and Post 2012 climate regime discussions. Countries
negotiate as part of the African Group and as part of the Group of 77, and the country
position include the following:
a. To commit developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions
consistent with the best available evidence;
b. To advocate establishment of an adequate and predictable Global Adaptation
Fund to help least developed countries such as Zambia to address impacts of
climate change.
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c. To negotiate for access to secure environmentally friendly technologies for least
developed countries to make meaningful contribution to climate change
mitigation through pursuing low carbon development pathways.
The appraisal of the country’s bio-carbon capacity revealed that an Integrated Land-Use
Assessment survey has been undertaken and forest cover and other land-uses have been
estimated. Forest cover is estimated at 50 million hectares (66%) of Zambia’s land area;
cultivated land is estimated at 7.5 million hectares (10%), built-up area is at half a million
hectares (1%) and water bodies are at 3.0 million hectares (4%) of the total land area.
Forests growing stock is estimated at 2.9 billion m3 and above ground biomass is
estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is estimated at 1.1 billion
tonnes. Stored carbon in above ground tree biomass is approximately 2.8 billion tonnes.
7. However, the available information does not indicate that the IPCC GPG framework has
been used in monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in bio-carbon assessments in
the country. The available data has shown that the country has inadequate capacity to
implement bio-carbon projects as can be seen by the very few bio-carbon projects that
have been initiated so far. This is largely attributed to inadequate financial and technical
capacity to finance and implement bio-carbon projects even when such projects are
financially and technically viable.
8. In order to develop capacity in bio-carbon assessment, the Forestry Department has taken
steps to train its personnel in monitoring, reporting and verification of forestry carbon
stocks but still more technical training is needed in bio-carbon assessment and
management of bio-carbon projects.
9. The appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape has shown that stakeholder
networks are rapidly expanding. A number of stakeholders have come on board and are
contributing to creating awareness on climate change issues. The MTENR is a major
stakeholder and is the focal Ministry on multilateral environmental agreements, including
UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. Other public and private institutions, Civil Society
Organisations and individuals are working on climate change issues. However,
coordination mechanism for climate change activities is still one of the key challenges.
10. In general, Zambia has inadequate capacity to develop and implement bio-carbon projects
and programmes. There is currently inadequate financial and technical capacity to finance
and implement bio-carbon projects, and therefore the need to develop programs to
promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment and
external resources into the sector.
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Recommendations
The report highlights the following recommendations.
• There is need to undertake more studies to re-examine the current extent of agroecological regions and to isolate climate change hotspots in which climate change
mitigation and adaptation interventions should be prioritized.
• The Zambian Government should scale up its efforts to initiate and implement projects
and strategies in the NAPA by mainstreaming them in national development policies and
programs and allocating adequate funding for their effective implementation.
• Government should ensure that the National REDD strategy, whose preparation has
commenced, is completed and adopted as soon as possible. The initial ILUA project (first
phase), which has established an information database on land use and estimate of carbon
stored in the country’s forests and woodland resources, provides a useful basis for
advancing bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects, and specifically initiating programs to benefit
from the REDD initiatives.
• The current review of the forestry policy with the anticipated review of institutional and
legal frameworks should be used as an opportunity that will provide direction and
incentives to attract investment in forest management under the REDD initiatives and
also other bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects in the country.
• The Zambian Government, through MTENR, should develop capacity in bio-carbon
assessment (monitoring, reporting and verification of forests carbon stocks). It should
also promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment
and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.
• There is urgent need to develop the capacity of the DNA and its institutional framework
to promote CDM projects in the country. Government should spearhead building of
technical and financial capacity and institutional framework for promotion of CDM
projects and implementation of bio-carbon projects in the country.
• With the rapid expansion of the climate change stakeholder landscape, there is need to
improve coordination of climate change activities. The newly established Climate
Change Facilitation Unit under the MTENR has the mandate of coordinating all climate
change activities in Zambia. It is the hope of many stakeholders this function of
coordination will be effectively undertaken.
viii
1.
Introduction
The Africa Bio-Carbon Initiative seeks to ensure that the international climate change agreement
that succeeds the Kyoto Protocol values the contribution that sustainable agriculture, forestry and
agro-forestry makes to climate change mitigation and adaptation. In this context, it is expected
that the carbon markets and new financial mechanisms should be developed in such a way as to
reward improved agricultural and forest management practices that help to reduce or mitigate the
impact of greenhouse gas emissions, while also assisting smallholder farmers in developing
countries in Africa to adapt to climate change. African countries are therefore expected to
cooperate in developing a comprehensive framework and negotiating positions on the broad
inclusion of bio-carbon in the forthcoming climate change agreement.
Towards the development of a comprehensive framework and negotiation positions, the
Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is currently working with such
organisations as the World Agro-forestry Centre (ICRAF) and the Centre for International
Forestry Research (CIFOR) to compile and document evidence materials, and to develop the
capacity of African countries to develop Bio-Carbon programmes and projects under the Biocarbon initiative. The projects and the country reports that are produced provide the evidence
based required to support policy formulation and decision making at different levels of the
framework.
In this report, available data and information is used to discuss and analyze the different biocarbon programmes and projects being implemented in Zambia. An analysis of key stakeholders
involved in the initiation, development and implementation of bio-carbon programmes in Zambia
is also included. The report is organized as follows: In section two, climate change trends are
explained from the period covering the late 60s, and projection of future climate change
scenarios and impacts in Zambia is also covered. Sections three and four provide the basis for
analysing current mitigation and adaptation initiatives that the government has initiated in the
last couple of years. Section five covers an appraisal of Zambia’s engagement in UNFCCC
processes, and section six discusses and assesses few bio-carbon and bio-fuel projects, in order to
understand the country’s current capacity to implement these projects. In section seven, A review
of selected bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects and a presentation of stakeholder analysis is done in
section eight. Section nine provides some recommendations and conclusions.
1.1
Objectives of the study
The key objectives of this exploratory study are to:
a) highlight and explain the climate change trends, threats and impacts in Zambia, analysed
taking into account Zambia’s unique circumstances and vulnerabilities;
b) present an overview of adaptation and mitigation measures, responses and policy
responses and plans that have been initiated at national and sub-national levels;
c) review existing scientific research and data relevant for developing viable Bio-carbon
programmes and projects in Zambia; and
1
d) Analyze and provide policy recommendations that can help to improve the design and
implementation of bio-carbon programs and projects in Zambia.
1.2
Approaches and methodology
The approach used to compile information and evidence for this study is largely based on review
of existing published and unpublished literature and reports, policy documents and projects
documents that Government has developed and signed with cooperating partners. Some data and
information on key projects were derived from personal interviews with key stakeholders, and
government officials involved either in policy development or implementation of selected key
climate change projects. These data and projects were also benchmarked to other similar studies
conducted in other developing countries, and have utilized established analysis frameworks
developed by the UNFCCC to conduct the analysis. The authors also relied on their own
expertise and knowledge of local circumstances to distil some recommendations and
conclusions.
2.
Climate variability and impacts
Climate varies naturally on all time scales and the variations are caused by external forces such
as changes in the sun’s energy output. Climate variability can also result from internal
interactions of the climate system’s components. These interactions can result in fairly regular
fluctuations or apparent random changes in climate often resulting in climate disasters and
extreme events (UNEP & UNFCCC, 2002).
2.1
Climate variability trends
Zambia has over several decades experienced a number of climatic hazards and extreme events
that represent significant departures from average state of climate system. These climatic hazards
are associated with human-induced climate change and natural climate variability. The climatic
indicators have shown that the country has experienced an increase in temperature and a decrease
in rainfall over the past decades. Studies have revealed that over the past three decades
temperature has been increasing at 0.6oC per decade. There has also been an increase in the
occurrence of extreme events along with their intensity and magnitude. The most serious ones
have been drought, seasonal floods and flush floods, extreme temperatures and dry spells
(MTENR, 2007). Zambia experienced worse drought in 1992/93 while the wettest conditions
were recorded in 1978/79. Within the past seven years the country has experienced droughts,
floods and normal conditions with the frequency of occurrence of drought and floods and their
intensity and magnitude being on the higher side. The recent extreme event in relation to floods
occurred in the 2007/08 rainy season, affecting a wide geographical area in the country (ZVAC,
2008).
The assessment undertaken by Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZVAC)
established that floods resulted into the destruction of crops, infrastructure such as bridges,
culverts, habitations, school buildings and health centres. The Road Development Agency
estimated that during the 2007/2008 floods the damage done to bridges and culverts and other
2
road related infrastructures required ZMK 43.7 billion for emergency repairs (RDA, 2008). This
is a significant cost to the economy, as it diverts public resources that would have been available
to finance development programs to mitigating the impact of climate of change.
Of the three agro-ecological regions of Zambia1, region I and II have been the most drought and
flood prone areas. A socioeconomic case study conducted in Gwembe, one of the areas affected
by the 2002/03 floods revealed the effects of the floods were far-reaching and adverse, and
affected the social and economic welfare of local communities in the area. Some of the effects
recorded include:
a) an increase in the incidence of hunger due to destruction of crops, reduction in
cultivatable land and increased soil erosion;
b) loss of shelter, displacement of people and disruption of communication due to
destruction of basic infrastructure such road and bridges,
c) an increase in the incidence of health epidemics such as malaria and waterborne diseases
and;
d) reduced nutrition and natural resource based livelihoods including livestock (AIACC,
2004).
During the floods of 2007, the study undertaken by Oxfam found that 65 percent of the
households interviewed were affected by the floods and 33 percent mostly those on the Zambezi
plains were displaced and another 17 percent had to relocate to alternative homesteads on the
uplands (Bwalya, 2007). Significant amounts of household goods and livestock were damaged
and lost during the floods and those adversely affected faced critical hunger, and had to depend
on humanitarian assistance and wild-food. The impact of those floods on local livelihoods and
poverty was significant and called for immediate humanitarian assistance. This meant that
livelihoods based on agricultural systems on the floodplains may no longer be sustainable and
households need to identify other livelihood systems outside the floodplains. Community
disruptions and poverty levels are expected to increase due to adverse effects of climate change,
and concrete adaptation interventions are needed to promote sustainable livelihoods and reduce
rural poverty.
1
Region I is a low rainfall area covering the Gwembe, Lunsemfwa and Luangwa valleys, and includes southern
parts of western and southern provinces. Region II is a medium rainfall area that covers Sandveld plateau of Central,
Eastern, Lusaka and Southern provinces, and the Kalahari sand plateau and Zambezi Flood plains of Western
province. Region III has the highest rainfall and is part of the Central African Plateau covering Northern, Luapula,
Copperbelt and North-Western provinces, as well as parts of Serenje and Mkushi districts.
3
Table 1 below shows examples of socio-economic and environmental impacts associated with
climate variability in Zambia between 1972 and 2008.
Table 1: Selected Impacts of climate variability in Zambia (1972—2008)
Season
Selected Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts
1972/73
Poorest rainy season in 50 years; drought caused substantial drop in crop yields and a reduction in
groundwater reservoirs
Heavy rainfall resulting in urban flooding in Lusaka (Kanyama disaster –extensive infrastructure
and settlement damages). This resulted in considerable damage to agricultural crops in many parts
of the country.
A drought rainy season, reducing maize production by 25 – 40 percent.
A poor rainfall distributed rainy season with elongated dry spells. This caused considerable losses
to the 1980 maize crop in Southern Province.
Below normal rainfall caused reductions in crop production as well as livestock production.
Rainfall deficits ranged from 30 to 50 % in Southern & Western and 10 to 40 % elsewhere. The
Luano Valley of Central Province experienced significant famine.
Frequent dry spells during the season led to poor performance in the agricultural sector, especially
over the southern half of Zambia
Drought reduced agricultural yields for the third consecutive season; worst affected areas were
Southern, Central and Western Provinces
Frequent dry spells between February and March led to widespread crop failure in Southern
Province.
Heavy rains in mid-season caused extensive water logging in crop fields; around Lusaka many
people whose houses collapsed were left homeless and lost other household property.
Persistent dry spell caused severe moisture stress in the major maize growing areas of Southern,
Central and Eastern Provinces.
Southern, Central and Lusaka Provinces experienced dry weather conditions. Marketed maize was
only 46 % of annual requirement.
Worst drought for many years hit the most critical crop stage (silk formation). All areas were
declared disaster areas by the then Republican President, F.T.J. Chiluba.
Heavy rainfall caused floods in many parts of the country. (Season of “Mozambique” Floods).
Heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods especially in the lower Zambezi (Kazungula floods, Kafue
Gorge mudslide resulting in country wide Zesco black out).
Excessive rains over much of the country resulting in flash floods.
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1986/87
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1999/2000
2005/06
2007/08
Source: Adapted from Kanyanga (2008).
These climatic variations are indicative of the effects of climate change and variability. The
effects have adversely and immensely impacted on the Zambian population at all levels and
virtually on all sectors of the economy, including on the natural and the built environment.
Notably, all the sectors of the economy are vulnerable to climate change and climate variability
but the most affected being agriculture, water, wildlife, forestry, health and energy.
Food and water security, water quality, energy and the sustainable livelihoods of rural
communities are some of the areas that have been adversely affected and this has subsequently
threatened the accessibility of vulnerable Zambians to adequate food, good health, safe and
adequate water supply and sanitation and sustainable livelihoods in general (ZVAC, 2008). For
instance, the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) assessed that during the
2007/2008 floods, over 495,972 households in 39 districts of Zambia were adversely affected
and 8 percent of these were displaced. Of the displaced households, 87 percent were in the rural
areas while 13 percent were in urban areas (ZVAC, 2008). In addition, households depend on
unprotected water sources such as wells, rivers and lakes were also adversely affected as floods
4
and heavy rainfall in affected areas contributed to contamination of water sources. Consequently,
the occurrence and incidence of diarrhoeal diseases amongst households with unprotected water
sources increased significantly.
The evident impact of droughts and floods led to a significant decrease in the productivity of
primary sectors like agriculture, fisheries, wildlife and tourism (MTENR, 2007). Significant
losses in net agriculture revenues have been recorded and associated to increased variability and
increases in temperature and the reduction in rainfall. Recent studies done under the National
Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) indicate that the regeneration capacity of the Miombo
forests and woodlands had slowed down due to increasing temperatures. Hydropower production
and wildlife based tourism, which are natural resource-based and sensitive climate variability,
have also been adversely affected. The increase in malaria cases and other climate sensitive
diseases have been shown to be significantly correlated with current climatic trends (MTENR,
2007). These factors that have contributed to the poor performance of the primary sectors
resulting in raising overall poverty levels in the country, which is estimated at 68 percent of the
national population (Thomson et al, 2008).
2.2
Areas most vulnerable to climate variability
This description of climatic conditions and identification of areas most vulnerable to climate
change can be described using the global agro-ecological zone developed by the United Nationsl
Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) with the use of digital global databases of climatic
parameters, topology, soil and terrains and land cover (ILUA 2008 database). The first agroecological zone (AEZI) represents semi-arid soils with low rainfalls (less than 800 mm) and
altitude of (400—900 m). Land falling within this agro-ecological zone accounts for highly
vulnerable climate change shocks especially droughts and accounts for about 17 percent of the
total land area of Zambia. The second largest proportion of the land (23 percent) falls in the
second agro-ecological zone (AEZIIb), which is characterized with medium rainfall (800—
1000mm) occupying the Zambezi plains and Barotse Kalahari sand plateaux. Zone three
(AEZIII) is typically of high rainfall of greater than 1000 mm and is located on the northern part
of the country and the plateaus with altitude ranging from 1100 to 1500 meters.
This characterization suggests that a large part of the country falling in the first and second
ecological zones may be highly vulnerable to floods and droughts, due to climate change. The
analysis of trends in climate change variability also reveals that regions most frequently affected
by droughts and floods fall within this category. Recent experiences with these environmental
stressful conditions have shown devastating impacts on food security resulting in hunger at
household level and this called for immediate humanitarian assistance and raised important
insights into adaptation and mitigation options as well as options for sustainable natural resource
management in areas most vulnerable. Most importantly, the above classification of agroecological zones needs to be re-examined as these zones could have shifted overtime as climatic
conditions and variables have changed.
Thus, analysis of the areas that frequently experienced adverse impacts of climate change and
variability has revealed that most of the negative impacts occur in southern and central regions of
5
the country, and food security is highly vulnerable to climatic shocks (IFPRI, 2009; MTENR,
2007). Though all the Agro-ecological Regions experience climatic hazards, region I has
consistently been experiencing climatic shocks in terms of droughts and floods, and water
scarcity. There is also a general tendency of precipitation reducing and shifting towards dryness
in this region (MTENR, 2007). More detailed study to establish climate hotspots needs to be
undertaken to identify areas of significant vulnerability and to target mitigation and adaptation
strategies to those areas.
2.3
Future scenarios on climate variability and trends
The climatic baseline assessments undertaken in three main agro-ecological regions of Zambia
for the 30-year period from 1970 to 2000 have revealed that in all the regions there is a general
trend showing decrease in precipitation and increased episodes of having precipitation of below
the 30-year average. According to studies done under the NAPA, the predicted climatic changes
in Zambia show increasing mean temperatures for the period 2010-2070 averaging about 20C
(MTENR, 2007). The studies further indicate that increased temperature will result in reduced
precipitation in the range of 8% and 30% of the normal average. Episodes of drought situations
are projected to increase and will adversely affect the agriculture sector, which is predominantly
rain-fed.
The IPCC 2007 report projects that yield from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to
50% by the year 2020. ‘Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African
countries is projected to be severely compromised. This would further adversely affect food
security and exacerbate malnutrition’ (IPCC, 2007). The climatic hazards that Zambia has
experienced so far have severely impacted on agriculture production, food security and other
sectors. The projected future climate will worsen the impacts further with most vulnerable
groups being adversely affected socio-economically. The country specific climate variability
trends, future scenarios and likely impacts are presented in Table 2 below.
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Table 2: Country specific climate variability trends, future scenarios & likely impacts
Sectors
Nature
impact
of
Water
Drought
Health
Droughts,
high
temperatures
and Floods
Mechanism (s) of impact
Critical
water
shortages
experienced;
inadequate
recharge of ground water
aquifers, lowering of water
tables
and
drying
of
boreholes, rivers and other
inland water bodies.
Crop failures and increased
water
scarcity
leading
increased malnutrition and
diarrhoeal diseases including
cholera epidemics, and waterborne diseases associated
with
floods
and
high
temperatures.
Frequency
of
occurrence or likely
frequency
of
occurrence
Increased frequency
and
intensity
of
droughts experienced
over the last three
decades (see table 1)
Areas covered by the
impacts in the country
Future scenarios (including measures taken to alleviate
or prevent impacts)
Agro-ecological region I
& II most vulnerable and
especially Southern and
Eastern Provinces.
•
•
•
Frequency, magnitude
and
intensity
of
droughts & floods
have increased in the
past three decades.
Agro-ecological Region I
& II, especially Southern
and Eastern Provinces.
•
•
•
Agriculture and food security (incl.
poverty reduction measures)
•
Drought
(seasonal &
periodic),
high
temperatures
& floods
Excessive
precipitation
leading to water logging,
erosion and hindrance to field
operation,
increased
frequency of droughts and
shortening of the growing
season, flash floods with
associated adverse impacts on
human welfare leading to
food insecurity, inadequate
livelihoods and adaptive
capacities
by
vulnerable
communities,
increased
incidence of malnutrition in
children, famine and loss of
productive assets and life.
Frequency, magnitude
and
intensity
of
droughts & floods
have been increasing
over the occurrence
have increased in the
last three decades.
All
agro-ecological
regions
have
been
affected but the extent of
severity varies. The worst
affected are Regions I &
II especially Eastern,
Central, Western and
Southern provinces.
•
•
•
•
•
7
General decrease in precipitation to continue and
frequency and intensity of droughts predicted to
increase.
Mitigation and adaptation measures identified include
water harvesting and irrigation systems, improved land
and rain-water management practices,
Crop diversification options.
Droughts, high temperatures & floods predicted to
increase and human health conditions likely to
deteriorate.
Measures taken include improving and diversifying
nutrition and fortified food supplementations for the
under-fives and other vulnerable groups.
Improving crop varieties resistant to droughts and
improving access to water (including safe treated
water) for better environmental health.
For malaria control, use of Insecticide Treated Nets
(ITNs) & other vector-control measures (i.e., indoor
spraying) encouraged.
Reduced precipitation and increased frequency of
droughts.
Measures: developing early maturing/ drought resistant
crops,
promoting irrigation and efficient use of water
resources including water harvesting and conservation
farming;
Fish breeding and restocking of depleted lakes, rivers,
dams
Promoting aquaculture development.
Sectors
Nature
impact
of
Environment
Drought, high
temperature &
floods
Infrastructure
Floods
Regeneration capacity of the
Miombo forest slowed down
due
to
increasing
temperatures. Reduced water
levels affect Hydropower
generation.
Droughts and
floods also adversely affect
biodiversity and wildlifebased tourism. Soil erosion
and siltation of rivers and
streams increased, adversely
affecting fisheries.
Damaging bridges, culverts,
habitations, school buildings,
health centres, and many
other structural facilities;
displacement of communities
in affected areas.
Frequency
of
occurrence or likely
frequency
of
occurrence
Frequency, magnitude
and
intensity
of
droughts & floods
have been increasing
over the past three
decades.
Areas covered by the
impacts in the country
Future scenarios (including measures taken to alleviate
or prevent impacts)
All agro-ecological zones,
and most critical in
biological hotspots.
•
•
•
•
Frequency, magnitude
and intensity of floods
have increased over
the past three decades
All the areas affected by
floods, but most affected
are
agro-ecological
regions I & II.
•
•
•
•
Drought and
floods
Economy
Mechanism (s) of impact
Reduced
agricultural
production
and
food
security because of droughts
and
floods.
Increase
inflation due to increasing
food price increases, high
dependence on rain-fed
agriculture has exacerbated
the
impacts.
Reduced
hydropower generation due
to severe drought.
Frequency
and
intensity of droughts
has increased over
the past decades.
All
agro-ecological
zones, most adversely
affected are regions I &
II.
8
•
•
Water recycling for hydropower generation has been
proposed in view of predicted increased frequency of
droughts.
Measures: For wildlife, relocating to relatively suitable
habitats has been proposed.
protect riverine ecosystems and catchments is being
undertaken but required further review
Other measures-see agriculture above
Heavy rainfalls resulting in floods have been predicted
and magnitude and intensity are likely to increase.
Measures: re-allocation of vulnerable communities to
safer areas,
reconstruction of affected infrastructure and
construction of (alternative) infrastructure in less floodprone area,
construction of infrastructure (culverts, bridges,
buildings, houses, etc) capable of withstanding floods.
Reduced economic growth, unemployment and
increased poverty levels.
Measures: economic diversification; use of drought
resilient crops, promotion of irrigation and water
harvesting schemes, and other measures identified
above.
2.4
Measures to alleviate adverse impacts of climate variability
The Zambian Government through the MTENR has formulated the NAPA which has identified
adaptation measures in all vulnerable sectors, including agriculture and food security, human
health, water and energy sector, and natural resources (wildlife and forests). Detailed tables
highlighting the climatic hazards to which the sectors are vulnerable to, the proposed adaptation
measures and the relevant vulnerable regions are presented in Section 4. The predominant
climatic hazards are droughts, high temperatures and floods. All the agro-ecological regions are
vulnerable to the aforementioned hazards but the most vulnerable ones are regions I and II,
mainly covering Eastern, Central, Western and Southern provinces.
The NAPA has also identified specific projects that would bring immediate local benefits to
vulnerable sectors and community groups with respect to adaptation to climate change. These
projects have been identified and prioritised and proposals shall be developed and submitted for
funding to Global Environment Facility (GEF) and other cooperating partners. Government will
also provide through its budget funds towards implementing adaptation and mitigations measures
in the vulnerable sectors and regions. However, there have been no funding to implement these
projects. Only one project has been earmarked for implementation in 2010 by the Ministry of
Agriculture and Cooperatives. The project relates to the adaptation to the effects of drought in
the context of Climate Change in Agro-Ecological Region I. This project supports climateresilient water management and agricultural practices, and includes pilot projects aimed at
testing the feasibility and viability of the interventions in terms of financial sustainability and
reduction in vulnerability to climate change. Water harvesting and irrigation systems, improved
land and rain-water management practices, and crop diversification options are key elements of
these interventions.
Despite inadequate implementation of identified and prioritized projects, the NAPA has put in
place an appropriate roadmap which, if effectively implemented, can significantly help mitigate
the adverse effects of climatic hazards on most vulnerable sectors and communities. It also
provides a framework for mainstreaming climate change issues in the national development
planning and programs. Towards this end, the government established in 2002 the Disaster
Management and Mitigation Unit under the Office of the Vice-President. The DMMU is
mandated to provide emergency relief operations in times of droughts, floods and other natural
disasters, and while it has been quite effective in terms of reacting to environmental disasters like
floods and droughts, the unit needs to be more pro-active in its response and strategy to
addressing the effects of climatic disasters. Inadequate financial and technical resources have
inhibited the country’s ability to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
3.
Climate Change mitigation initiatives
This section identifies and discusses mitigation initiatives undertaken at both national and subnational levels in Zambia. It particularly focuses on mitigation initiatives related to land use,
agriculture and forestry.
9
3.1
REDD and AFOLU Policy Initiatives
Zambia is among few countries that have been selected to pilot the United Nations Reduced
Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) Programme aimed at reducing
deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries, and also to encouraging them to
effectively participate in crafting the post 2012 Climate Change regime. This is expected to be
achieved by developing and testing standards, methods and guidelines for assessment,
monitoring, accounting, reporting and verifying reduction in deforestation and forest
degradation. The programme also seeks to build collaborative approaches to land and forest
management in developing countries.
Under the REDD programme being piloted in Zambia, the Forestry Department (FD) was
identified to be the lead agency and is currently undertaking activities with support from the
UNFAO, UNEP and UNDP. The programme is linked to the Environment and Natural Resource
Management and Mainstreaming Programme (ENRMMP) in the Ministry of Tourism,
Environment and Natural Resources (MTENR). The FD has constituted a REDD Technical
Committee, which comprises government ministries and agencies, civil society and the private
sector.
Under the programme, six REDD Readiness components have been identified and include
Management of Readiness, Stakeholder Participation, REDD Implementation, Identification of
REDD Strategies, National MRV System and Reference Scenario of Forest Emissions. All
activities from the six components will culminate in the formulation of the National REDD
Strategy. FD, being responsible for day to day implementation of the programme, has also
embarked on activities to create awareness about the programme and has developed a draft
REDD Readiness Roadmap for development of a national REDD Strategy for Zambia. The draft
Roadmap, once finalized, will take into account several key issues including the following:
•
•
•
•
emissions baseline inventory and a MRV system;
improvement and strengthening of the legislative framework including the review of the
Forestry Policy;
enhancement of institutional and technical capacity to implement REDD; and
clarification of technical, economic and social issues relating to land-use, tenure and
access to forest resources.
The REDD related activities in Zambia are being implemented through various ministries and
agencies and some of the key activities accomplished include the Integrated Land-Use
Assessment (ILUA) study project, conservation agriculture, and sustainable energy projects
among others. In order for Zambia to benefit from the REDD process, there is need to adopt
more innovative and consultative approaches to reducing deforestation and forest degradation,
and to build the necessary institutional and technical capacities.
10
3.2
Clean Development Mechanism Projects
The Government of the Republic of Zambia ratified the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change in October 2006 and the MTENR, which serves as
lead Ministry on environmental issues coordinates the implementation of the protocol and the
Clean Development Mechanism in Zambia. The MTENR in consultation with other stakeholders
have established the Designated National Authority (DNA) to facilitate implementation of CDM
projects. These projects are intended to contribute to the global reduction in Greenhouse Gas
(GHG) emissions and promote sustainable development in Zambia.
The DNA consists of representatives from line ministries, the private sector and civil society. It
has two committees, namely; the Ad-hoc Working Group or technical committee that undertakes
technical evaluations and the CDM Board which is the decision making body of the DNA. Since
its inception, the DNA has evaluated over twenty Project Idea Notes (PINs) and at least three
Project Design Documents. It has also approved two CDM projects. Many of the projects that
have been technically evaluated are on mini-hydro power projects, energy switching initiatives
mainly from fossil fuels like diesel to hydropower and sustainable forest management. A CDM
project on improved cook-stove commonly referred to as the Lusaka Sustainable Energy Project,
has reached an advanced stage in terms of being registered with the UNFCCC. It is now at a
stage where a completeness check is to be undertaken by the UNFCCC secretariat, in accordance
with the ‘Clarifications to facilitate the implementation of the procedures for review as referred
to in paragraph 41 of the modalities and procedures for a Clean Development Mechanism’.
In terms of voluntary carbon projects related to land use, agriculture and forestry, very few
projects, if any, have so far been undertaken. But there is significant interest from several
stakeholders, including the private sector to undertake such projects.
4.
Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives
The climatic hazards that have been experienced in the country include droughts, floods and high
temperatures. In order to respond to priority needs for adaptation to Climate Change, the
Zambian Government through MTENR formulated the NAPA, a national document that outlines
the types of climatic hazards experienced in Zambia, their impacts and adaptation measures to
respond to these impacts. The World Conservation Union (IUCN) in Zambia has also undertaken
an assessment on climate change vulnerability in Zambia (IUCN, 2007). The assessment focused
on obtaining information on the extent of the risks associated with climate change and variability
at the local level. The assessment also aimed at providing complementary information on climate
hazards and on existing coping strategies at the local level to facilitate policy dialogue at the
national level (IUCN, 2007). Other climate change related studies with components on
adaptation have been undertaken by some government ministries, agencies and private
institutions.
This section discusses adaptation/copping strategies that have been identified at both the national
and sub-national levels in respect of the effects of climate change and variability in Zambia.
11
Adaptation measures in the key vulnerable sectors like agriculture and food security, human
health, water and energy, and natural resources (forestry and wildlife), have been identified and
are discussed below.
4.1
NAPAs and National Level Programmes
4.1.1 Agriculture and Food Security
The agriculture sector is adversely affected by drought, floods and high temperatures. Droughts
have led to crop failure, loss of income and increase in diseases (both human and livestock).
High frequency of dry spells has also contributed to shortening of growing season and crop
damage. Floods have led to water logging, soil erosion, and destruction to infrastructure and
have hindered farming activities. All these factors have negatively impacted on food security,
livelihoods and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities. In order to adapt to the impacts of
climate change and variability, government through the MTENR has formulated adaptation
measures in the sector. Table 3 shows the adaptation measures in the agriculture sector.
12
Table 3: Adaptation Measures in the Agriculture and Food Security sector
Agriculture and Food Security
Agriculture and Food Security
Relevant Vulnerable Regions
Climatic Hazards
Agro-Ecological Regions (AER) I & II, especially Drought (seasonal and periodic), floods Eastern, Central, Western and Southern water logging, shortened growing season,
provinces
and delayed on-set of the rains.
AER I
Drought
All AERs with viable rivers and water bodies
Drought, Floods and high temperatures
Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007. AER means Agro-Ecological Region
13
Adaptation Measure
• Adaptation of crops (cereals, legumes, root and tuber
crops, and horticultural crops) to climate change/
variability including promotion of early maturing/drought
resistance crops
• Develop sustainable and appropriate programmes for both
crops and livestock in the face of climate change
• Promotion of irrigation and efficient use of water
resources
• Use of technologies for fertility improvement and
moisture storage (including soil conservation measures)
• Strengthening of the early warning systems and
preparedness
• Water harvesting
• Development of dams and dip tanks and sustainable
supply of feed to mitigate the effects of droughts;
• Promotion of Improved crop and livestock management
practices
• Introduction of well-adapted livestock
• Application of GIS/remote sensing in mapping of drought
and flood prone areas
• Improve post-harvest storage and marketing of produce
• Boosting the Zambezi River Water System to increase
delivery
• Promotion of aquaculture
• species suitable Fish breeding to restock the lakes, rivers
and dams
• Using for aquaculture in vulnerable areas
4.1.2 Human Health
Climatic hazards affect human health. High temperature regimes and floods have been
associated with increased cases of malaria and major epidemics of diarrhoeal diseases
such as cholera, dysentery among others. Malnutrition in communities with less adaptive
capacity has increased because of crop failures associated with a high frequency of
droughts. At national level adaptation measures on the adverse effects of climate change
and variability in the human health sector have been formulated. These are presented in
Table 4.
Table 4: Adaptation Measures in the Human Health Sector
Human Health
Relevant
Vulnerable Climatic Hazards
Regions
Drought, shortened growing season
and delayed on-set of the rains.
AER I &II
Adaptation Measure
•
•
Floods
•
Improved and diversified nutrition and
fortified food supplementations for the
under-fives and other vulnerable groups.
Improved access to water for better
environmental health.
Use of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and
other vector-control measures to prevent
malaria. Use of climate-based early
warning systems and GIS-mapping of
vulnerable localities.
Water treatment for quality control (to
prevent waterborne diseases) and climate –
proofing of sanitation.
Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007 Note: AER means Agro-Ecological Region.
4.1.3 Natural Resources
Wildlife habitats have been affected by climatic hazards such as droughts through
changes in rangelands. Desert-type conditions have developed because of prolonged
droughts and water shortage in some areas leading to reduced wildlife habitats. In
addition forest resource regeneration is negatively affected by drought and other climatic
hazards that affect the resilience of forest vegetation types. These climatic hazards arising
from climate change and variability have subsequently threatened socio-economic
welfare (livelihoods) of forest resource dependent communities that have no adaptive
capacity. Adaptation measures aimed at moderating harm and exploiting beneficial
opportunities in response to climatic hazards have been developed and published in the
NAPA document (MTENR, 2007). Table 5 below shows adaptation measures developed
for the natural resources sector.
14
Table 5: Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector)
Natural Resources (Wildlife and Forest Sector
Relevant Vulnerable Regions
Climatic Hazards
Adaptation Measure
AER I & II, especially Eastern, Central,
Western and Southern provinces
Drought (seasonal and periodic), floods
- water logging, shortened growing
season, and delayed on-set of the rains.
All AER with viable water bodies
Drought and high temperatures
All AER with viable rivers and water
bodies
Drought and floods
Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007.
15
• Improved fire management in game reserves
• Construction of watering points e.g. boreholes for watering
wildlife
• Breeding programme for selected species in National Park
• Community based ranching in order to protect vulnerable
species
• Culling to maintain sustainable animal populations
• Identifying and protecting migratory routes of wildlife
• Undertaking protective management measures to protect
displaced wildlife populations
• Developing small dams, and other storage facilities, to mitigate
droughts/flooding, to harvest water and to initiate communitybased fish farming and breeding
• Restocking of depleted game areas
• Improved extension services to ensure sustainable land and
forest management
• Improving energy access and security, especially in rural areas
(e.g., through the Rural Electrification Agency, promotion of
energy-efficient stoves)
• Promotion of community forest management
• Forest fire management at the community level
• Targeting afforestation and re-afforestation programmes to
control siltation of streams and rivers, and fuel wood supply to
reduce deforestation
• Promotion of community woodlots for the provision of fuel
wood and as sources of alternative cash income
• Developing and implementing strategies for drought
preparedness, flood zoning and mitigation works
• Translocation of animal
16
4.1.4 Water and Energy
Adaptation measures in the Water and Energy sector have also been developed in light of
the observed and anticipated effects of climate change and variability. Droughts have
negatively affected ground water resources and have contributed to critical water
shortages. A number of boreholes and rivers have dried up. The hydropower generation is
also affected by prolonged drought situations. The Southern Province of Zambia is
particularly vulnerable to climatic hazards such as droughts, high temperature regimes
and floods. Table 6 below shows some of adaptation measures developed.
Table 6: Adaptation Measures in Water and Energy Sector
Water and Energy Sector
Relevant
Vulnerable Climatic Hazards
Regions
• Use of renewable energies
• Efficient use of charcoal and expanded use
of ethanol stoves
• Regional
Integration
of
Electricity
Infrastructure from Biomass Sources
• Inter-Basin Water Transfers
Drought
AER I &II
AER I &II
Adaptation Measure
Drought and high
temperatures
Source: Adapted from MTENR, 2007.
4.2
Inventory of potential indigenous adaptation techniques
Droughts, floods, extreme heat and shortening of rainy season have been identified as the
most common climatic hazards that adversely affect local livelihoods. The impacts are
especially critical in those communities with limited adaptive capacities to respond to
climate change. Climate change vulnerability assessment undertaken by IUCN revealed
that communities have experienced an increase in the number of droughts, rain intensity,
and extreme heat conditions over the past decades (IUCN, 2007). This assessment was
undertaken in seven communities from three agro-ecological regions of Zambia. The
impacts of climatic hazards experienced at the local level are summarized in Table 7
below. The results indicate that climate variability has had a negative impact on
agricultural local livelihoods and exacerbated poverty conditions in those communities
forcing households to seek livelihood options outside agriculture. In particular, local
communities have increasingly become more dependent on forest-based livelihoods and
income generating activities.
Fisheries have also been adversely impacted by climate variability and limiting livelihood
options of affected communities. In addition, households revealed that the incidence of
diseases arising from increasing temperatures and floods, as well as from lack of
adequate nutrients due to household food shortfalls have increased in recent years.
However, most communities surveyed have adopted several adaptation strategies to cope
with these adverse effects of climate change. Generally, the results of this particular study
indicates that local communities have traditional knowledge and skills to adapt to climate
17
change and climate variability, but these are fairly transitory and less robust to be
regarded as adequate strategies to enable them adapt and mitigate against adverse climate
change conditions.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is also implementing a UNDP supported
project on adaptation to the effects of drought and climate change in Agro-ecological
Regions I and II where climate change impacts have been more pronounced. How
successful these interventions have been is yet to be evaluated.
18
Table 7: Main Impacts of Climate Hazards as identified by Local Communities
Drought
Floods
Extreme Heat
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Crop damage/loss, leading to food scarcity and hunger
Water shortages
Reduced fish stocks
Income loss
Reduced charcoal business
Increase in diseases (affecting humans and animals)
Decreased water quality
Increased soil erosion
Decreased soil fertility
• Increased honey production (if drought is not too severe)
• Crop damage/loss, leading to food
scarcity and hunger
• Loss of crop land and grazing
ground
• Decline in fish catches
• Increase in diseases (malaria,
dysentery, cholera, etc.)
• Destruction of infrastructures
(houses, roads)
• Life loss (humans and livestock)
• Income diversification (charcoal making, fishing, honey
and beer production, selling grass and livestock, casual
labour) to buy food
• Trading other commodities for food
• Gathering and selling
• wild food
• Food rationing
• Selling less crops to keep more for household
consumption
• Shifting agricultural production from highlands to lower
lands
• Earlier crop planting
• Growing more drought resistant crops (e.g. cassava)
• Incorporation of crop residues instead of burning
• Crop rotations, intercropping, and cover cropping
• Irrigation (practiced by very few)
• Sinking wells
• Walking longer distances to get water
• Using medicinal plants to treat diseases
• Going to the medical clinic
• Boiling water or treating it with chlorine
• Income diversification (charcoal,
crafts, mats and beer making,
fishing , grass selling, casual
labour) to buy food
• Trading other commodities for
food
• Gathering and selling
• wild food
• Shifting agricultural production,
livestock and houses to higher
lands
• Using medicinal plants to treat
diseases
• Boiling water or treating it with
chlorine to prevent diseases
• Bury
ditches
to
prevent
waterborne diseases
• Early evacuation when water
levels increase
• Improve drainage around houses
• Putting plastic on top of houses
19
• Increase in diseases
affecting
animals,
crops and humans
• (especially malaria)
• Decreased human
• capacity to do work
• Loss of life (animals
• and humans)
• Crop damage/loss
• Reduced fish stocks
• Decreased livestock
feed
• Reduced
water
quality
medicinal
• Using
plants
to
treat
diseases
• Boiling water or
treating
it
with
chlorine to prevent
diseases
• Going to the medical
• clinic
• Buying and using
mosquito nets and
repellents
• Working earlier in
the morning
• Buying
medicines
for cattle
• Income
diversification (e.g.
agricultural
production to cope
with decreased fish
stocks;
charcoal
Shorter Rainy Season
• Decreased crop yields
• Crop damage/loss
• Decreased income from
crop selling
• Crop seeds do not reach
maturity
(which
negatively affects the next
crop generation)
• Reduced
charcoal
production and business
• Income
Diversification
(selling charcoal, livestock
or grass; casual labour)
• Selling less crops to keep
more
for
household
consumption
• Gathering wild food
• Buying seeds for the next
growing season
• Exchanging crop seeds
between
community
members or between
villages
Drought
• Getting support from NGOs and the government
Floods
Extreme Heat
Shorter Rainy Season
production
to
cope
• If houses are destroyed, build
temporary shelters or live
temporarily with neighbours
Source: IUCN, 2007
20
with crop loss)
• Trading
other
commodities
for
food
• Earlier crop planting
• Taking animals out
early in the morning
• Using zero-grazing
for some animals
5.
Appraisal of Country engagements in UNFCCC Processes
The Government of the Republic of Zambia through MTENR has been engaged in the UNFCCC
process. The UNFCCC Focal Point, who is also the Director of Environment and Natural
Resources Management Department (ENMRD) at MTENR, and some members of staff from the
ministry have been attending UNFCCC meetings since the ratification of the convention. The
team has currently been attending the UNFCCC meetings in preparation for the Fifteenth
Conference of Parties to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark.
At national level, the MTENR is coordinating preparatory meetings to enhance and sharpen the
skills capacity of the negotiators and to prepare Zambia’s position for submission to both the
Kyoto and Post 2012 climate regime discussions. At major international conferences, Zambia
does not negotiate its position as a country but instead negotiates as part of the African Group
and as part of the Group of 77. Therefore, critical negotiation issues that the Zambian delegation
has identified and the position that has been developed so far form part of the African and Group
of 77 positions.
Zambia’s negotiated position is outlined below.
• To commit developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions consistent with
the best available evidence;
• To advocate establishment of an adequate and predictable Global Adaptation Fund to
help least developed countries such as Zambia to address impacts of climate change.
• To negotiate for access to secure environmental friendly technologies for least developed
countries to make meaningful contribution to climate change mitigation through pursuing
low carbon development pathways.
The country will also negotiate for an appropriate global incentive mechanism that focuses on
adaptation than mitigation and recognises and rewards the efforts of local and forest dependent
communities in conserving and sustainably utilising their forests (MTENR, 2009).
Efforts are also being made to generate data and information to back the country’s position on
various issues to be discussed. Studies are being conducted under the Second National
Communication project to come up with accurate and reliable information on Zambia’s National
Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment including National
Circumstances related to the country’s capability to address challenges posed by climate change
and variability. The reports on the studies being undertaken are expected to be ready before
December 2009.
21
6.
Appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity
The IPPC Good Practice Guidance (GPG2003) for Land-Use and Land-Use Change and Forestry
(LULUCF) relates to the measurement, estimation, assessment of uncertainties, monitoring and
reporting of net carbon stock changes and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by sources
and removals by sinks in land-use, land-use change and forestry sectors. The framework helps to
ensure that ‘estimates of carbon stock changes, emissions by sources and removals by sinks,
even if uncertain, are bona fide estimates, in the sense of not containing any biases that could
have been identified and eliminated, and that uncertainties have been reduced as far as
practicable given national circumstances’ (IPCC, 2003).
The recent forest inventory for Zambia was undertaken using a methodology developed by the
Forest Resources Assessment programme of the FAO. It is based on nation-wide field sampling.
It involved undertaking an Integrated Land-Use Assessment (ILUA) survey throughout the
country between 2006 and 2007. The survey was undertaken by MTENR through the Forestry
Department.
The survey was done with technical assistance from the UNFAO and culminated in the
compilation of comprehensive forestry inventory data that provide information on land use
patterns, more reliable estimates on deforestation, carbon stocks and sequestration, and provides
geo-spatial data for analysing agricultural and forestry policies in Zambia. It is a valuable source
of data for establishing a national database on land use resources. It provides a wealth of
information and data that if properly utilised can contribute to sustainable management of
forestry and land use in the country. The data is relevant for land use planning, formulation of
policies, monitoring and evaluation of impacts of policies as well as for addressing climate
change issues, among others.
The ILUA report estimates forest cover at 50 million hectares (66%) of Zambia’s land area2. The
other land uses such as cultivated land is estimated at 7.5 million hectares (10%), built-up area is
at half a million hectares (1%) and water bodies is at 3.0 million hectares (4%) of the total land
area of the country. Forests growing stock is estimated at 2.9 billion m3 and above ground
biomass is estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is estimated at 1.1 billion
tonnes. The report also estimates that approximately 2.8 billion tonnes of carbon is stored in
above ground tree biomass in Zambian forests and woodlands (Kalinda et al, 2008; Forestry
Department ILUA Report, .2008).
However, the available information does not indicate that the IPCC GPG framework has been
used in monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) in bio-carbon assessments in Zambia. For
instance the national greenhouse inventories, which include emissions by sources and removals
by sinks of all anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the land-use change and forestry sector, and
that have been prepared in Zambia so far have not adequately incorporated assessment of
uncertainties and corresponding quality assurance and quality control system. The inventory
preparation process is not adequately documented and archived to facilitate re-calculations in
2
Surface land area for Zambia is estimated at 752,614km2.
22
light of new scientific knowledge, emission factors and methodological changes, among others.
It is however envisaged that this will be done in the second phase of the project.
In light of present efforts to pilot REDD in Zambia, the Forestry Department has taken steps to
train its personnel on monitoring, reporting and verification of forestry carbon stocks. It is hoped
that capacity will soon be developed to more accurately monitor, verify and report on forest net
carbon stocks in the country.
A number of stakeholders with roles and responsibilities are involved in forest inventory,
agricultural planning and soils data acquisition. In undertaking the ILUA project, the Forestry
Department is collaborating with the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (Agriculture), the
Ministry of Lands (Survey), the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (Central Statistics
Office), Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), University of Zambia, Copperbelt University,
Zambia Forestry College and Local Authorities (Councils).
The available data on the ILUA is national data and is accessible through the MTENR and the
Forestry Department. Draft copies of the ILUA report are readily accessible on the internet or
from the Forestry Department and UNFAO.
Table 8 below presents information on the appraisal of Zambia’s Bio-Carbon capacity in terms
of monitoring, reporting and verification assessment. The data suggest that capacity for the
country to implement bio-carbon projects needs to be developed. There are currently very few
bio-carbon projects that have been initiated in the country. This is largely attributed to
inadequate financial and technical capacity to finance and implement bio-carbon projects even
when such projects are financially and technically viable. The Zambian Government needs to
come up with deliberate measures to promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting
private sector investment and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.
23
Table 8: Appraisal of country Bio-Carbon capacity in MRV System
(monitoring, reporting and verification) using IPCC GPG framework
Data type
Paper
Country forest inventory
(sustainable
forest
management,
deforestation,
reforestation
and
aforestation),
ILUA
Report
available
Land use planning and
land use (crop land
management,
revegetation,
grazing
land management)
partially
available
Stakeholder roles and
responsibilities in forest
inventory, agricultural
planning and soils
N/A
Digital
Available
partially
available
Amount of carbon lost,
sequestered or stored from
activities in column 1 where
available
Which institution has
the data and data
access rules
Forestry
Department. •
ILUA reports and the
data
are
readily •
accessible from the FAO
website and from Forest
Department
Local
authorities,
Forestry Department.
•
Comments
Carbon stored in tree biomass •
estimated at 2.8 billion tonnes;
73.9 ton/per hr is potential
incremental carbon that can be
sequestered through improved
management of indigenous •
forests (ILUA report, 2008)
There is potential to implement
REDDs and absorb significant
carbon through improved forest
management practices exists.
is •
Local authorities are the planning
authorities
within
their
jurisdiction.
Forestry Department has, under
ILUA Database, Land-use data.
No comprehensive
available
data
•
N/A
MTENR, MACO, ECZ,
CSO, ZAWA, UNZA,
CBU, SURVEY DEPT
24
Significant carbon can be stored •
through
community
woodlot
projects, as well as bio-energy
projects as is the case with the
Kaputa Bio-fuel project
There is also potential to reduce
deforestation through fuel wood
technological substitution and
innovation, and transitioning to
renewable energy,
There is potential to promote
community forestry through biocarbon projects, and to deliver
benefits to communities from
such projects.
7.
Appraisal of climate change stakeholder landscape
The climate change stakeholder landscape is rapidly expanding. A number of stakeholders have
come on board and are contributing to creating awareness on climate change issues. The
stakeholders range from public and private institutions, Non-Governmental Organisations, Civil
Society to individuals.
Ministry of Tourism Environment and Natural Resources
The main actor is the MTENR, which is a focal ministry on multilateral environmental
agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
and its Kyoto Protocol, Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), United Nations Convention
to Combat Desertification (UNFCCD), among others. The ministry has established a Climate
Change Facilitation Unit (CCFU) to:
a) Coordinate climate change related activities and to prepare a National Climate Change
Response Strategy,
b) Draft Climate Change Response Policy and Legal Framework,
c) Develop a Communication and Advocacy Strategy on Climate Change and to facilitate
development and implementation of the NAPA and REDD pilot programmes.
d) Develop guidelines for effective participation in regional and international climate
change conferences and develop a profile on data sources for analytical work and;
e) Facilitate the development of CDM projects, among others.
Within the MTENR, there are several specialized agencies and departments with specific
mandates. Because of their specialized mandates, they are best described as separate key
stakeholders. These include the Environmental Council of Zambia, Forestry Department, Zambia
Wildlife Authority and the National Heritage Conservation Commission. In particular, the
Environmental Council of Zambia also plays a significant role in the preparation of national
communications, including the preparation of national GHG inventories report. The national
communications seek to communicate the key elements of information to UNFCCC Secretariat
on the implementation of the convention in Zambia. ECZ has so far facilitated the preparation of
the Initial National Communication for Zambia, and drew teams of experts from key institutions
in Zambia. ECZ is currently facilitating preparation of the Second National Communication to
the UNFCCC Secretariat. Consultancy firms have been contracted to prepare reports on technical
components of a national communication which will be consolidated into a Second National
Communication Document.
Zambia Meteorological Department: The Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) under the
Ministry of Transport and Communication provides meteorological data essential in undertaking
climate change research. It also carries out its own research on improving early warning system
to enhance adaptation to climate change. The provision of meteorological information to support
early warning for disaster preparedness is the most fundamental aspect of public weather
services provided by ZMD to the Zambian communities.
25
The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives: The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
(MACO) is also a key stakeholder. It undertakes research on climate change and agriculture,
including studies on adaptation to adverse effects of climate change (drought and floods)
especially in vulnerable agro-ecological regions I and II.
International organisations: International organisations like IUCN Zambia are key actors in
climate change research and policy development. They are currently implementing a project on
climate change and development in Zambia. The World Bank, British Council, Danish Embassy,
Finnish Embassy, UNDP, UNEP and many others are involved at various levels in climate
change issue in Zambia, and provides climate change related financial and technical assistance to
Zambia.
Civil Society Organisations: Some Civil Society Organisations are also involved in climate
change issues. They have established a network of Zambian Civil Society Organisations to help
create awareness on climate change issues and to provide effective policy advocacy aimed at
promoting equity and fairness in the manner government addresses climate change challenges at
all levels. One of the networks recently established by civil society to coordinate their
interventions on climate change in the country is the Zambia Civil Society Climate Change
Network.
Private sector: Private sector participation in climate change research, development and policy
development has been quite limited over the last decade. This is attributed to inadequate
institutional and technical capacity to undertake climate change research in most private sector
institutions. In Zambia, the Centre for Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia (CEEEZ)
Limited is one of the private organisations that have been instrumental in undertaking research
on climate change issues. It has been involved in (i) preparation and development of GHG
Inventories using IPCC Guidelines; (ii) research on improving emission factors in various
sectors; (iii) development of spread sheet for calculation of GHG emissions and removals based
on the 2006 IPCC guidelines; (iv) in-depth review of national communications and GHG
inventories at national and international levels.
Njuwe Consultants Limited is also involved in carrying out climate change studies. There are
other private institutions and individuals that undertake climate change research works but, just
like CEEEZ, need urgent and significant capacity building to respond to the global, regional and
national demands required to address the monumental challenges posed by climate change.
Research institutions: There is a couple of research institution in that undertake research on
climate change. The major ones being the University of Zambia, and its network of research
centres, the Copperbelt University and several other government colleges. These institutions,
however, face financial and technical constraints to scale-up research on climate change and
generate solid policy relevant recommendations to address national climate change challenges.
Most private teaching and research institutions are yet to develop necessary competencies to
understand and undertake climate change research. Thus, capacity building is required in both
private and public universities in the area of climate change.
26
Table 9 below presents a summary of some actors on climate change issues.
Table 9: Summary of Some Actors in Climate Change Issues
Name of actor/
institution
including key
ministries
Ministry of Tourism
Environment and
Natural Resources
Type
(government,
NGO, private
sector, education)
Government
Environmental
Council of Zambia
Forestry
Department
Zambia
Meteorological
Department
Ministry of
Agriculture and
Cooperatives
Government
International
organisations:
International
Organisation
Government
Government
Government
Civil
Society Non-governmental
Organisations
Organisation
Research
institutions:
Private sector
Government
Brief description of actual work
Focal ministry on multilateral environmental agreements such as
UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol, Convention on Biological Diversity
(CBD), United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
(UNFCCD).
Coordination of climate change related activities to prepare a National
Climate Change Response Strategy, Policy and Legal Framework,
Communication and Advocacy Strategy, NAPA projects and REDD
pilot programmes implementation, facilitation of CDM projects
development.
Preparation of national communications, preparation of national GHG
inventories, climate change awareness campaign
REDD, Sustainable Forest Management
Provision of meteorological data essential in undertaking climate
change research. Research on improving early warning system to
enhance adaptation to climate change.
Research on climate change and agriculture, Studies on adaptation to
adverse effects of climate change (drought and floods) especially in
vulnerable agro-ecological regions I and II.
IUCN- Climate change research and policy development (currently
implementing a project on climate change and development in
Zambia).
World Bank, British Council, Danish Embassy, Finnish Embassy,
UNDP, UNEP involved in climate change issues in Zambia, and
provide climate change related financial and technical assistance.
Involved in climate change issues. Established Zambia Civil Society
Climate Change Network to help create awareness on and to provide
effective policy advocacy aimed at promoting equity and fairness in
the manner government addresses climate change challenges at all
levels.
Undertake research on climate change. The major ones being the
University of Zambia, and its network of research centres, the
Copperbelt University and several other government colleges.
Participation in climate change research, development and policy
development has been quite limited due to inadequate institutional and
technical capacity to undertake climate change research. Centre for
Energy Environment and Engineering Zambia (CEEEZ) and Njuwe
Consultants are some of the firms that conduct studies on climate
change.
27
Table 10 presents some of the key actors identified during a stakeholders workshop conducted to
identify institutions undertaking climate change related studies. However, the studies are
uncoordinated resulting in their duplication. Please note that it’s not possible at the moment to
provide an exhaustive list of all institutions, but only to highlight a few.
28
Table 10: Summary of Climate Change Studies being undertaken in Zambia
Institution
Centre for Energy,
Environment
&
Engineering
in
Zambia (CEEEZ)
Energy
&
Environment
Resource Group UNZA (EERG)
Initiatives
•
Preparation and development of GHG Inventories using IPCC Guidelines; research on
improving emission factors in various sectors; development of spread sheet for calculation of
GHG emissions and removals based on the 2006 guidelines; in-depth review of national
communications and GHG inventories at national and international levels;
Status
Ongoing
•
Development of baseline data and mitigation scenarios to help in implementing policies and
measures to reduce GHG emissions and enhance sinks. Methodology and assumptions: LEAP
Low-range Energy Alternative Planning tool; Use of COMAP (Comprehensive Mitigation
Analysis Process) in the Forestry sector to analyse the impact of changes in forestry cover,
product supply and demand, cost and benefit of mitigation options; Use of Regional Climate
Models (RCM) to generate future climate change scenarios.
Ongoing
•
Identification of mitigation projects under the CDM on energy efficiency, etc; estimation of
biomass (carbon) stock under baseline and mitigation scenarios.
Ongoing
•
Formulation of National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) covering climate, energy
and water and agriculture; particular contributions on climate baseline assessments and
projected climatic fluctuations, and impacts of climate change/variability on selected crops and
livestock; Vulnerability assessments with respect to community responses on effects of climate
change/variability and socio economic situation; and assessment of coping strategies in relation
to vulnerability stresses. Study on effects of climate change on hydropower potential of SADC.
Completed September 2007
•
Preparation and development of GHG Inventories.
Ongoing
•
Climate change mitigation through the use of solar photovoltaic (renewable energy);
Ongoing
•
Assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia; contributing
to food security and sustainable development by enabling adoption of adequate adaptation
strategies.
Completed
•
Renewable energy research, particularly on solar energy.
Ongoing
29
Institution
Zambia
Meteorological
Department
(ZMD)
Forestry
Department
Ministry of Energy
&
Water
Initiatives
•
Teaching, Research and Capacity Building in climate change prediction, climate change
scenarios generation, climate change trend analysis; Introducing and implementing courses on
climate change (Masters degree or shorter demand-driven courses); Dissemination of results on
research, latest scientific knowledge and understanding of Climate Change issues through
lectures, public talks, conferences/workshop, articles, etc;
Status
Ongoing
•
Regional emissions inventory preparation & transport modelling tasks with partners Air
Pollution Information Network in Africa (APINA); Development of an APINA Workbook &
Manual for Emissions Inventory Preparation (model): SO2, NOx, CO, NH3, PM2.5 & PM10.
Ongoing
•
Provide routine weather and climate assessments and early warning; research on weather and
climate related fields (e.g. Integrated Flood Management Strategy); participation in WMO
activities; participation in regional policy dialogue on emissions; publication of climate change
research results in international journals (e.g. Journal of Geophysical Research, etc), regional
emissions inventory through APINA;
Ongoing
•
Integrated Land Use Assessment Project (ILUA) with FAO and MACO. Baseline data on forest
resources and socio-economic variable for use in forestry planning process and other related
studies. Coverage – entire country
The ILUA Project is completed. The
assessment was carried out during the
period 2005 to 2008.
•
Climate change impact on forests and community socio-economic wellbeing as a result of
flooding. (2004)
•
Raise awareness on the opportunities of bio-fuels and strengthening institutional framework for
renewable energies in Zambia
Completed: This study was carried
out in Gwembe District of Southern
Province in the year 2004. Matsika
E., Siampale A. (2004), Climate
Change Impact on Forests and SocioEconomic as a result of flooding:
Case study of Gwembe District,
Southern Province of Zambia.
Ongoing
30
Institution
Development
Energy
Department
–
Geography
Department,
UNZA
Initiatives
•
Hydrological surveys; Catchment hydrological assessments; Flood and drought analyses;
Groundwater surveys, monitoring, assessment and mapping; Groundwater aquifer
characteristics;
River Catchment water balance; Water resources infrastructure development (boreholes, dams,
spring and rainwater harvesting - facilities developed assist greatly to mitigate the impacts of
floods and droughts by increasing water supply for various uses); and Monitoring and
Evaluation
Status
Routine Operations of the Water
Affairs Department
•
Water resources research and development; Hydrological surveys; Catchment hydrological
assessments; Flood and drought analyses; Groundwater surveys, monitoring, assessment and
mapping; Groundwater aquifer characteristics; River Catchment water balance; Monitoring and
evaluation.
Ongoing
•
Reversing food security and environmental degradation through conservation agriculture (3
years- ends in 2011). Examine Jatropha growing and role in GHG mitigation and carbon
sequestration. Review institutional framework that guide the securing of carbon credit.
Compare farmer vulnerability to climate change and variability under both conventional and
conservation agriculture.
Impacts of land use change on local ecology: examine extent of magnitude of land use change
over two decades in Chipata; Ecological Risks Assessment; Identification of biophysical and
socio-economic drivers of land use change.
Climate change and cereal yields in Southern Zambia: impacts, adaptation and risk
management
Building capacity for sustainable biodiversity management in Zambia.
Assessment of the application of solar energy technologies; review of Zambia’s energy policy
towards renewable energy technologies.
Ongoing (2008-2011).
Upgrading power generating units to make them more efficient and protection of reservoir
areas; incentives programme for replacement of ordinary bulbs with CFLs.
NAPA to identify the most vulnerable sectors to the adverse effects of climate change
Trade and Environment Study 2005.
District Environmental Situational Analysis in the formulation of the National Policy on
Environment (2004).
Ongoing
•
•
•
•
•
Zesco Limited
•
Ministry
of
Tourism
Environment
&
Natural Resources
(MTENR)
•
•
•
31
Planned
Completed
Completed September 2007
Completed
Institution
Initiatives
•
Scoping study on the economic impact of climate change to recommend a methodology for
undertaking a full study on economic impacts of climate change; multidisciplinary study on the
impacts of floods in Southern Province;
Zambia
Agricultural
Research Institute
- Mt. Makulu
(ZARI)
•
The National Capacity Self Assessment Report 2006: Rio Conventions.
Completed
•
Establishment of a Secretariat on Climate Change and formulation of a National Climate
Change Response Strategy.
CCFU established and is operational
•
Lack of resilience in African small-holder farming: Exploring measures to enhance the adaptive
capacity of local communities to pressures of climate change (Choma and Monze) 2007 – 2010
Ongoing
•
Building adaptive capacity to cope with increasing vulnerability to climate change (Monze and
Sinazongwe) 2007-2010.
Vulnerability and resilience of socio-ecological system to climate change. 2006-2011. Petauke
and Sinazongwe.
Cities and climate change: climate change vulnerability and adaptation study aimed at
improving information base for effective decision making in climate change adaptation in urban
areas. Institutional mapping.
Community-based adaptation project in Zambia: Reduction of vulnerability and enhancement
of the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change. Methodologies: Top-down hot spot
mapping; Bottom-up community vulnerability and adaptation assessments; Use of sustainable
livelihoods approach (2007 - 2008).
Ongoing: 2007 - 2010
•
Climate change and development project (2008-2010). Climate change data and site specific
evidence for climate change: baseline assessment, climate change hazards, risks and impact on
livelihoods.
Ongoing: 2008 - 2010
•
Climate change and development project (2008-2010). Climate change related institutional
arrangements and coordination: background, update and assessment of institutional roles at all
levels and identification of institutions related to climate change coordination in the country.
Governance systems and policy formulation processes: identification and catalogue of policies;
identification of gaps ad overlaps.
Ongoing
•
Document information on continued poor yields by ZNFU Members and challenges; Impact
and frequency of droughts. Development of mechanisms to address impact of Climate Change
in agriculture sector. Some work was done under National Energy Policy on Bio fuels in
collaboration with other partners and ZNFU members.
Ongoing
•
Copperbelt
University
Kasali)
•
(Dr.
•
IUCN Zambia
Environmental
Conservation
Association
of
Zambia (ECAZ) /
Zambia National
Status
Completed
32
Ongoing: 2006 - 2011
Planned
Completed ; 2007 - 2008
Institution
Farmers
Union
(ZNFU)
World
Bank
Zambia Office
Zambia Wildlife
Authority
(ZAWA) – not
represented at the
workshop.
Initiatives
Status
•
Economic impact of floods and droughts: direct and indirect financial costs.
Planned
•
The institution plans to undertake studies on the vulnerability of the wildlife sector to the
effects of climate change. Detailed studies have also been planned on the vulnerable species
such as the Kafue Lechwe, among others.
The other planned studies will focus on adaptation assessments and enhancement of on-going
research on the collection of climatic data to facilitate decision-making.
Planned
•
Source: Adapted from Second National Communication (SNC) Project Team, 2008 (Workshop Report).
33
8.
Issues specific case studies
It is the Zambian Government’s policy on energy ‘to create conditions that will ensure the
availability of adequate supply of energy from various sources, which are dependable, at the
lowest economic, financial, social and environmental cost consistent with national development
goals’ (MEWD, 2007). In terms of bio-fuels as an energy source, the policy measures include
using bio-fuels in the national fuel mix, and to ensure security of supply and stabilisation of
prices of fuels by promoting the utilisation of bio-fuels for transport as an alternative to
petroleum by: (i) Supporting the growing of energy crops; (ii) Supporting investment in bio-fuels
through appropriate incentives; (iii) Supporting the participation of Zambians in the bio-fuels
industry as are shareholders; (iv) ensuring that use of bio-fuels for the market is given priority
(MEWD, 2007).
In response to the policy, the Zambian Government has supported the growing of energy crops as
can seen from the number of bio-fuel projects that have been implemented by the private sector.
These projects are situated in different parts of the country, and have largely focussed on
growing and processing energy crops such as Jathropa into bio-diesel. These energy crops are
being cultivated by out-grower schemes involving small-scale farmers, and through
establishment of commercial plantations. The available bio-fuel projects in Zambia are presented
in Table 11 below. The projects are agricultural in nature and only one has been developed into a
CDM project. The Lusaka Sustainable Wood Fuel Project will be undergoing a completeness
check by the UNFCCC Secretariat before it can be classified as a CDM. Some Project Idea
Notes (PINs) on bio-fuel were also developed by CEEEZ. It was noted that the development of
CDM projects in Zambia has been hampered by difficulties in project financing and certification,
weak financial base of potential project developers, lack of CDM investment portfolios in local
financial institutions lending policies, and complicated and / or lack of approved methodologies.
34
Table 11: Bio-fuel Projects in Zambia
NO
TYPE OF PROJECT
COMMENTS
FIRM OWNING
1
TOWN
/Province
Lusaka
Bio-fuels- Biodiesel Processing Plant.
Oval Bio-fuels
2
Kabwe
Bio-fuels- Jatropha
scheme.
3
Mpongwe
Bio-fuelsplantation
4
Kaputa
Biomass- Gasification
5
Solwezi
Bio-fuels- Jatropha plantation
6
Solwezi
Zambezi
7
Lusaka
8
Currently not in operation but involve
refining the biodiesel.
Small scale farmers have been involved in
growing energy crops as a way of local
participation in the Bio-fuels industry.
A private company that have established a
commercial Jatropha plantation for the
purposed of producing biodiesel
A project on Biomass gasification generating
1MW of electricity to be operational by end
of next year 2010
The mine has developed a plantation in their
degraded lands. They hope to use the
biodiesel to be produced in there machinery.
A out grower scheme on the energy crops
funded by the EU and implanted by
Northwestern Biopower together with
Ministry of Agriculture, provincial office.
A CDM project of promoting woodfuel stove
using twigs for cooking.
Aimed promoting efficient utilisation of
woodfuels. Builds capacity in stove builders
in efficient technologies.
LUSAKA
Programme for Biomass Energy
/Western
Conservation (ProBEC)
/Southern/Centra
l/Copperbelt
Choma
Bio-fuels- Jatropha
out grower Small scale farmers have been involved in Southern
scheme.
growing energy crops as a way of local b?iopower.
participation in the Bio-fuels industry.
9
out grower
Commercial
Jatropha
– Biodiesel- European Union Project
on out grower scheme
Lusaka Sustainable Energy Project
35
Marli Investments
E CT Ltd
GRZ/UNIDO/ZE
SCO
Kansenshi Mine.
North western bio
power.
Africa Resources
Limited
GRZ/ProBEC/GT
Z
Table 12: Bio-carbon projects in the country
Name of Locatio Type
Project
Climate
change
project
n in the (Agriculture
start
mechanism
under
country /forestry)
year
which the project was
initiated (e.g. CDM,
REDD,
Voluntary
market,
activities
implemented jointly)
Lusaka
Sustain
able
Energy
Project
Lusaka
Forestry
CDM
Implementing
agency
Donor/i
nvestor
&
amount
investe
d
Stage in which the
project is in (i.e.
planning
phase,
feasibility
phase,
implementation phase,
MRV phase, payment
phase)
Technical
details
(technologies,
enterprises,
number
of
farmers
involved, etc)
Forestry
Department
African
Resour
ces
Limited
At the stage of
Completeness check to
be undertaken by
UNFCCC Secretariat
A CDM project
of promoting
wood-fuel stove
using twigs for
cooking
36
Frameworks
for benefit
sharing
9.
Conclusions and recommendations
This study has reviewed climate variability trends and has attempted to provide some discussion
of future scenarios and climate change impacts on key sectors of the economy. The study has
revealed the following:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The country has experienced increased variability in key climate change variables such as
precipitations and temperatures. Temperature has been estimated to increase at the rate of
0.6oC per decade. Future scenarios for the period 2010 -2070 indicate further increase in
temperature averaging 2oC and reduction in precipitation in the range of 8% and 10% of
the normal rainfall.
Intensity of floods and drought episodes has significantly increased over the last three
decades and has affected nearly all sectors of the economy.
The effects of increased intensity of flood and drought episodes have been destruction of
crops, infrastructure such as bridges, culverts, habitations, school buildings and health
facilities, and increase in the incidences of hunger and health epidemics, reduced
nutrition and natural resource based livelihoods including livestock.
Vulnerability to climate change cut across all key sectors, but critical vulnerabilities are
spatially concentrated in agro-ecological regions I and II.
The institution, namely the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit in the Office of the
Vice-President, established by the Zambian Government to alleviate adverse impacts
associated with climatic hazards is currently poorly resourced, both in terms of financial
and technical resources, and consequently lacks comprehensive proactive strategies and
measures to address climate change induced disasters.
The NAPA developed by the Zambian Government sets the framework and strategies for
implementing climate change adaptation programs in the country but none of the projects
and strategies identified and prioritised have been implemented because of lack of
financial and technical resources.
The country has also commenced preparatory works towards developing a national
REDD Strategy. The ILUA Database and current review of relevant policies present
opportunities for effective formulation and implementation of REDD strategies and other
bio-carbon programmes and projects.
The country is geared to promote CDM Projects through the already established DNA but
difficulties in project financing and certification, weak financial base of potential project
developers, lack of CDM investment portfolios in local financial institutions lending
policies, and complicated and / or lack of approved methodologies have affected
development of CDM projects.
The appraisal of the country’s bio-carbon capacity revealed that Zambia has forest cover
estimated at 50 million hectares with forests growing stock estimated at 2.9 billion m3
and above ground biomass estimated at 4.5 billion tonnes, while below ground biomass is
estimated at 1.1 billion tonnes. Stored carbon in above ground tree biomass is
approximately 2.8 billion tonnes.
37
Overall, the available information has revealed that Zambia has significant, unexploited potential
to develop and implement climate change programs and benefit from the Africa Bio-carbon
Initiative. However, data has shown that the country has inadequate technical and financial
capacity to implement climate change adaptation measures as well as inadequate capacity to
implement bio-carbon projects. This can seen by the very few bio-carbon projects that have been
initiated so far. Financial and technical capacity has been inadequate to implement bio-carbon
projects even when such projects are financially and technically viable.
The information and analysis, we make the following recommendations:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
There is need to undertake more studies to re-examine the current extent of agroecological regions and to isolate climate change hotspots in which climate change
mitigation and adaptation interventions should be prioritized.
The Zambian Government should scale up its efforts to initiate and implement projects
and strategies in the NAPA by mainstreaming them in national development policies and
programs and allocating adequate funding for their effective implementation.
Government should ensure that the National REDD strategy, whose preparation has
commenced, is completed and adopted as soon as possible. The initial ILUA project (first
phase), which has established an information database on land use and estimate of carbon
stored in the country’s forests and woodland resources, provides a useful basis for
advancing bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects, and specifically initiating programs to benefit
from the REDD initiatives.
The current review of the forestry policy with the anticipated review of institutional and
legal frameworks should be used as an opportunity that will provide direction and
incentives to attract investment in forest management under the REDD initiatives and
also other bio-fuel and bio-carbon projects in the country.
The Zambian Government, through MTENR, should develop capacity in bio-carbon
assessment (monitoring, reporting and verification of forests carbon stocks). It should
also promote bio-carbon projects in the country by attracting private sector investment
and attracting funding from bilateral and multilateral organizations.
There is urgent need to develop the capacity of the DNA and its institutional framework
to promote CDM projects in the country. Government should spearhead building of
technical and financial capacity and institutional framework for promotion of CDM
projects and implementation of bio-carbon projects in the country.
With the rapid expansion of the climate change stakeholder landscape, there is need to
improve coordination of climate change activities. The newly established Climate
Change Facilitation Unit under the MTENR has the mandate of coordinating all climate
change activities in Zambia. It is the hope of many stakeholders this function of
coordination will be effectively undertaken.
38
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