* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Presentation
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
El Niño–Southern Oscillation wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Pala Riparian Ecosystem Meeting 9/17/2015 Planning for climate change on top of already high climate variability Dan Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego USGS Water Resources Discipline much support from Mary Tyree, Guido Franco and other colleagues Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program California DWR, DOE, NSF Great year-to-year variability in California precipitation Southern California Coast area average shown here from Western Regional Climate Center ) • Annual precipitation ranges from ~33% to 280% of average • Intermittant very wet and very dry years • Multi-year wet and dry spellls High variability of weather and short term climate will continue California records some of Nation’s heaviest 3-day rainfall Locations that have recorded the highest 3-day precipitation amounts Numbers of non-overlapping 3-day precipitation totals at COOP weather stations that exceeded 40 cm (15.75”) from 1950-2008. Atmospheric Rivers West Coast flood generators 4 virtually all climate simulations project warming, but with a wide envelope of temperature change July Temperature change Sacramento +3°C CMIP5 GCMs project +23.5°C summer warming by 2060, under mid and high RCPs 14 GCMs X 3 RCP Emissions th Scenarios IPCC 5 Assessment (CMIP5) models Some important questions: Which emissions pathway will we take? How much summer amplification of warming? How will temperature change in near term? average summer afternoon temperature 6 average summer afternoon temperature GFDL A2 1km downscaled to 1km Hugo Hidalgo Tapash Das Mike Dettinger 7 Projected change temperature and precipitation 31 Global Climate Models RCP 8.5 Los Angeles region S C a wetter a warmer future but uncertain changes in precipitation warmer Projected change temperature and precipitation 31 Global Climate Models RCP 8.5 Los Angeles region wetter a warmer future but uncertain changes in precipitation warmer Projected change temperature and precipitation 31 Global Climate Models RCP 8.5 Los Angeles region wetter a warmer future but uncertain changes in precipitation warmer Heat Waves Projected in San Diego SRES A2 and SRES B1 GHG Emissions Scenarios Number of Days (n), April– October, When Maximum Temperature (Tmax) Exceeds the 98th Percentile Historical (1961–1990) Level of 82°F at San Diego from Four BCCA Downscaled GCMs. Brown carrots and red dots shown for B1 and A2 emission scenarios, respectively. Thick brown (B1) and red (A2) lines show median value from the four simulations. April through October number of days above the historical (1961-1990) 98th percentile maximum temperature for 4 global climate models (cnrmcm3, ncarccsm3, gfdlcm2.1, ncarpcm1) from BCCA downscaling for sresa2 (red) and sresb1 (brown). Heavy lines indicate median number of days (per year). 98th percentile values range from 81.7 oF to 82.9 oF. Projected patterns of precipitation changes 2090-2099 versus 1980-1999 Globally, dry regions become drier including the Southwest United States! 12 Coastal Marine Stratus Peak Cloudiness Timing Aug Jul Jun May Difference: Morning - Afternoon Low Cloud Frequency (%) October 26, 2003 dry fuels + low humidity + winds makes extreme fire danger October 2003: Major Santa ana conditions 13 major fires in CA& Mex. > 300K hectares (750K acres) 24 lives lost 239 injured 4866 structures lost > $2 billion in insured losses $176 million in disaster relief $116 million in suppression costs Largest fire (Cedar) and largest fire siege in California history Increased SoCal fires since 2000-a temporary rise or a trend? 17 Summary • California’s climate is prone to year-to-year and longer term variation in precipitation— drought is an expected part of our climate—present and future. • California dry spells often build up over multiple years,. A more/less dry pattern has been in place since 1999. A variety of climate patterns may produce drought--there is not a unique atmospheric drought-circulation pattern. • The absence of a few very large storms is often a key driver of dry years. And large storms are frequently involved in “busting” drought. • Climate change will broadly affect California hydroclimate and impact sectors and systems across-the-board. Expected impacts of climate change: longer “warm” season, loss of spring snow pack, increased wildfire threat, more winter floods. • Climate changes in annual precipitation is not so clear in California. However, climate change may shift precipitation characteristics—fewer overall wet days but more intense heavy events. Climate change projections—warmer, fewer overall wet days but more intense heavy events. 19 CEC Workshop Sacramento 8/28/2015 El Nino 2015 will it alleviate the 2012-2015 drought? Dan Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego USGS Water Resources Discipline much support from David Pierce, Mary Tyree, and other colleagues Sponsors: California Energy Commission NOAA RISA program Southwest Climate Science Center U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Only two wet years 2007-2015 21 since 1977 average temp in SoCal has been warm 2014 and 2015 exceptionally warm! 22 The California Drought the drought took hold in 2012 and intensified through 2015 Global SST Departures o ( C) During the Last Four Weeks During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the central and eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and below average in the Atlantic Ocean. Very warm surface waters now in Eastern Pacific Ocean NOAA Niño Region SST Departures o ( C) Recent Evolution The latest weekly SST departures are: Niño Niño Niño Niño NOAA 4 3.4 3 1+2 1.1ºC 2.1ºC 2.2ºC 1.7ºC Tropical Pacific has warmed considerably-- El Nino has set in Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific During the last two months, positive subsurface temperature anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, negative anomalies were evident in the far eastern Pacific and western Pacific, while positive anomalies have persisted across the central and eastern Pacific. NOAA Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies During January – March, a significant sub-surface warming occurred across the eastern Pacific. Since March, sub-surface temperature anomalies have remained large, but with some minor fluctuations in strength. Following a drop in June, the anomalies increased in July. Since early August, positive anomalies have persisted. NOAA 28 SUMMARY Rather strong El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific. El Niño will likely remain in place through winter 2015-16. If winter El Niño is strong, we could see above normal storminess in Southern California and maybe Northern California. Historical El Niño’s have resulted in a wide range of California precipitation during the water year. Strongest odds of wet winter in SoCal. Historical El Niño’s have produced large Pacific storms along with high waves and high sea levels along the Calfiornia coast. Periods with highest tides would produce strongest impacts if large storms were present Frank Gehrke, California Cooperative Snow Surveys, DWR 30