Download The GCOS Assessment Cycle - Group on Earth Observations

GEOSS support for IPCC assessments
- The GCOS Assessment Cycle 1 -4 February 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
Dr Carolin Richter, Director, Global Climate Observing System Secretariat
The Composition and Scope
of the Main Global Observing Systems
SYSTEMS
OCEAN
ATMOSPHERE
LAND
GEOSS
GOOS
WIGOS
GCOS
(GOS AND GAW)
GTOS
The goal of the Global Climate Observing System
(GCOS) is to provide comprehensive information on
the total climate system, involving a
multidisciplinary range of physical, chemical and
biological properties and atmospheric, oceanic,
hydrologic, cryospheric and terrestrial processes.
(Annex A to 1992 and 1998 WMO-IOC-UNEP-ICSU MOU)
The Emergence of Human-Induced Climate Change
as a Global Science and Policy Issue
UNCHE
1972
Science
WCC-1
1979
First
World Climate
Conference
UN Conference
on the Human
Environment
Computers
World Climate Programme
UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
WCP
1979
Global
Atmospheric
Research
Programme
World
Weather
Watch
GARP
1967
WWW
1967
WCC-3
2009
CopenUNFCCC Policy
hagen
1992
2009
WCED
1987
Space
Second / Third
World Climate
Conference
World Commission on
Environment and
Development
UNGA
1961
United Nations
General Assembly
WCC-2
1990
IPCC
1988
Assessment
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change
Research
WCRP
World Climate
Research Programme
Global Climate
Observing System
GCOS
1991
Observation
GCOS as building block for a
Global Framework for Climate Services
Adaptation
Mitigation
Climate- sensitive
Sectors
UNFCCC
Interface
Prediction & Information
IPCC
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)
The GCOS Mission
Observations made in the past have unequivocally demonstrated that the
climate system is warming. Climate observation must be enhanced and
continued into the future to enable users to:
Detect further climate change and determine its causes
Model and predict the climate system
Assess impacts of climate variability and change
Monitor the effectiveness of policies for mitigating climate change
Support adaptation to climate change
Develop climate information services
Promote sustainable national economic development
Meet other requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other international conventions and
agreements
Continuous Improvement and Assessment Cycle
GCOS – an all domain system
What needs to be measured ?
GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)
Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)
High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate research
(WCRP), climate change assessments (IPCC)

Priority list of variables to be observed systematically


Initiated in 1995 in The GCOS Plan, then called «principal observations»
Submitted first time 1998 in 1st Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC, Buenos Aires
 Global observations feasible (practical, cost-effective)
 High impact on needs of UNFCCC, climate change assessments (IPCC)
 Term « ECV » promoted in 2003, 2nd Adequacy Report to the UNFCCC
What needs to be measured ?
GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)



Atmospheric
• Surface – Air temperature, Precipitation, Pressure, Surface radiation budget,
Wind speed and direction, Water vapour
• Upper Air – Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Temperature,
Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties
• Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane and other long-lived greenhouse
gases (N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, SF6 and PFCs), Ozone and Aerosol,
supported by their precursors (NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO).
Oceanic
• Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state,
Sea ice, Surface Current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean
acidity, Phytoplankton.
• Sub-surface:Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon dioxide partial
pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers.
Terrestrial
• River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice
caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover
(including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active
radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above ground biomass, Soil carbon,
Fire disturbance, Soil moisture.
Blue/bold = largely space-based red = new in 2010 plan
What needs to be measured ?
How to do it ?
Implementation Plan
up-date in August 2010
What needs to be measured ?
How to do it ?
Satellite Supplement
up-date in January 2011
Climate Monitoring
Principles
Guidelines for Datasets
and Products
 In-situ data supplement to the Implementation Plan needed.
Workshop to look at gaps in observations and at gaps
in basic science, Sydney, Australia, October 2007
Workshop on Space based
Architecture for
Climate
in January 2011
 ERB
 Precip
 Watervapour
By whom / by which means ?
 “network owners”, i.e.,
 National Meteorological Services
 National Hydrological Services
 Research organizations
 Space agencies
 Marine / coastal agencies…
How to improve the system ?
 Promote the actions in the GCOS Implementation Plan
 Operating a cooperation mechanism
 Develop Regional Action Plans
 Advocating national coordination
Where are we now ?
Where can you get your data ?
www.GOSIC.org
(acts as data access service)
ECV WIKIs (GCOS Secretariat, ESA CCI, GOSIC)
Where are we now ?
Progress Report 2004-2008
Progress Report 2009-2013 (?)
Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998
Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003
Third Report on the Adequacy, (?) 2013-2015
Where are we now ?
Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 1998
Second Report on the Adequacy of the GCOS, 2003
Implementation Plan 2004 and up-date in 2010
Progress Report 2004-2008
in support of the UNFCCC
GCOS findings support and contribute also to
IPCC, WCRP and Global Framework for Climate
Services
Observations for adaptation and impacts
Where are we now ?
Demonstrate the socio-economic values of ECVs
How good is the information which is available to you ?
Is there any information missing ?
What is needed to provide you with adequate information ?
Climate
change
> 20 yrs
6 months –
5 years
1 - 6 months
Act now
Choose &
decide later
Look ahead&
Make plans
Set a future
trend
Socio-economic values of climate predictions and projections
Agriculture
and
Farming
2050 and beyond =
Climate Change
(Emission Scenarios)
Strategic thinking about
future trends and scenarios
Decadal 10 yrs
Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)
Multi-Decadal (> 20 yrs)
(PDO,AMO,MOC)
Long-term planning for
implementing policies
Management of quality and quantity;
Protective and regulatory measures
Seasonal, Interannual
(ENSO, TBO,
Monsoon)
6 months – 5 yrs
Logistics: scheduling of activities
Sub-seasonal
Intra-Seasonal
MJO (30-90 days)
up to 6 months
Fisheries
Forestry
Soil
Water regime, Biological
Health
coastal and diversity /
marine
Ecosystems
protection
Infrastructure, Tourism
Transport,
industry
Urban
Settlements,
Building
Energy
industry
Trade
and
industry
Financial
services
industry
Oceanic
Observations
Terrestrial
Observations
Atmospheric
Observations
Mapping societal sectors into domain based ECVs
Surface:
Air temperature
Wind speed/direction
Agriculture
Water vapour,
Fisheries
and Farming
Pressure,
Precipitation,
Surface radiation budget
Upper-air:
Temperature,
Wind speed/direction
Water vapour
Cloud properties
Earth radiation budget
Composition:
Carbon dioxide,
Agriculture
Methane (other GHGs)
and Farming
Ozone and Aerosol
River discharge
Water use
Ground water
Lakes
Snow cover
Agriculture
Glaciers and ice caps
and Farming
Ice sheets
Permafrost
Albedo
Land cover(inc.veg type)
FAPAR,
Leaf area index (LAI),
Above-ground biomass,
Soil carbon
Fire disturbance
Soil moisture
Surface:
Sea-surface temperature
Sea-surface salinity
Sea level
Sea state
Sea ice
Surface current
Ocean colour
Carbon dioxide part.p.
Ocean acidity
Sub-surface:
Temperature
Salinity
Current
Nutrients
Carbon dioxide part p.
Ocean acidity
Oxygen
Tracers
Phytoplankton
Water regime,
coastal and
marine protection
Soil
Forestry
Infrastructure,
Transport,
Health
Urban Settlements,
Building
Biological
diversity /
Ecosystems
Water regime,
coastal and
marine protection
Forestry
Soil
Water regime,
coastal and
marine protection
Health
Water regime,
coastal and
marine protection
Energy
industry
Infrastructure,
Transport,
Urban Settlements,
Building
Biological
diversity /
Ecosystems
Fisheries
Tourism
industry
Energy Trade and
industry industry
Financial
services
industry
Tourism
industry
Trade and
industry
Health
Infrastructure,
Health
Transport,
Urban Settlements,
Building
Biological
diversity /
Ecosystems
Financial
services
industry
Tourism
industry
Energy
industry
Trade and
industry
Financial
services
industry
Up-dated Implementation Plan:
in brief:
 new ECVs, now 50 (before 44 )
 reflection on ecosystems (biodiversity)
 additional focus on reference and super site networks
(measurements of several ECVs at one site for a more
comprehensive understanding of the ecosystem)
 cost estimation (additional costs and costs for existing
systems)
GCOS Progress Report 2004-2008 - Summary

Developed Countries:
 improved climate observation
capabilities,
 limited progress in resolving financial
issues related to long-term continuity

Developing Countries:
 limited (in-situ) progress, with decline
in some regions,
 capacity building support remains
small in relation to needs

Satellite agencies:
 improved mission continuity and capability
 increasingly meeting climate needs

Progress made, but:
 Many gaps persist,
 Continued engagement needed for coordinated
implementation and long-term continuity
Summary of progress on all 131
Actions in 2004 GCOS IP
2. Satellite Supplement
– up-date in January 2011
Update 2006 Satellite Supplement to the GCOS IP (GCOS-107)
 Update detailed GCOS requirements for FCDRs and ECV
products in terms of





accuracy,
stability,
temporal/spatial resolution,
calibration and validation needs and opportunities,
relevant international working groups.
for Atmosphere, Ocean, Land and Cross-Cutting actions.
 Expert Meeting, January 10 – 12, 2011, Geneva
improvements on most of the ECVs, extra sections, e.g., GHGs,
precursors, « pressure » emerges now also as space-based observed
ECV.
 Open for public review, March 2011
 Finalising draft, 2nd Qrt 2011.
Ensuring Quality and Acceptance
of ECV Datasets
(GCOS Guideline for generation of ECV datasets and products, May 2010)
When generating climate datasets and ECV products, particular attention to:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.


Full description of all steps in the generation of datasets and products
Information on publications in peer-reviewed journals related to datasets and products
Statement of expected accuracy, stability and resolution (time, space) of the product
Arrangements for access to the datasets, products and all documentation
Version management of datasets and products, particularly in connection with improved
algorithms and reprocessing
Particular attention to long-term stability and homogeneity of the product
Full application of all appropriate calibration/validation activities that would enhance
product quality
Global coverage where appropriate
Timeliness of data release to the user community to enable monitoring activities
Facility for user feedback
Application of a quantitative maturity index if possible
Summary documenting the extent to which this guideline has been followed.
Responds to increasing demand by producers to ensure climate quality /
meeting GCOS requirements
Ensure transparency (“Say what you do”)
2050 and beyond =
Climate Change
(Emission Scenarios)
Decadal 10 yrs
Inter-Decadal (10-20 yrs)
Mulit-Decadal (> 20 yrs)
(PDO,AMO,MOC)
Seasonal, Inter-annual
(ENSO, TBO, Monsoon)
6 months – 5 yrs
Sub-seasonal
Intra-Seasonal
MJO (30-90 days)
up to 6 months
synoptic
Value of Observations (ECVs) for societal sectors
Strategic Thinking on how to adapt the relevant policies
Land use
Reproductivity
capacity of
stocks
Compositions&
conversion;use of
timber
Water reserves Adaption of
Coastal lines
species; migration;
Shipping ways extinction
Long-term Planning
Crop
Industry,
breeding
Construction &
Planning policies
Purchasing&stock Innovations in
policies
technology
Protect&conserve
habitats; Design
Landscapes
Protection of
Plan to
human settlement
restock fish, and infrastructure
Sustained
&fishing
Timber yields
soil quality
methods
Drinking water
quality, protection
of coastal
lines&waterways
Design plants to
withstand extreme
weather
Foster research;
Connect to sector of
infrastructure (green
spaces, air corridors in
cities..),
Regional shifts
Adapt to
of standards for
Crisis precautions;
buildings/infrastructure;
Renewable energy;
Investigate into new
Alternative energy
routes.
sources
Management
Generation of energy;
New/modify regulations
Develop vaccines;
Crop type&sequence
Health of forest
Drinking&cooling
Implement bioStocking rates
Timber harvest
water; Possibility
monitoring systems
Herd management
of shipping
Change Fishing
Humus formation
Reduce pollutants
area&method
Carbon sequestration
and nutrients
(initiate legislation)
Logistics: scheduling of activties
Choose Fishing Harvesting/Planting;
Prevention on
area&method Prevention of fire
floods, droughts,
Drought, Pest
storm surges
Planting/Harvesting
Prevention of mud
outbreaks
Use of Pesticides/Fertiliser
slides, erosion
Agriculture
and
Farming
Fisheries
Forestry
Soil
Financial
policies
Revision
Provision of labour&
of standards for infrastructure
buildings/infrastructure;
Make provisions to
repair roads and
railways.
Risk
assessment;
new business
strategies
Revise framewor
conditions;
new/modify busin
modles
Take precautions by
plant safety
managers; new legal
regulations
Lead of adequate
Prevention of
Prevention of
Travel management
personnel&material
accidents, injuries or accidents and damages
(resources)
allergies, heat stress,
Lead of adequate
circulation disorders….
energy supply
Water regime, Biological
Health
coastal and diversity /
marine
Ecosystems
protection
Infrastructure, Tourism
Transport,
industry
Urban
Settlements,
Building
Energy
industry
Trade
and
industry
Financial
services
industry
From Observations to Information to Services
Example of a societal sector:
Agriculture
and Farming
Example output parameter:
Climate Observations
(annual means, monthly means)
ECV
Air temperature
Model for
Agrometeorology
Number of days of ice,
frost, summer, heat,
tropical days, tropical
nights
ECV
Precipitation
Start of vegetation period
Start of flowering of winter rape
Ripeness of maize
Vernalization (low temp. stimulus)
Model data;
phenological &
meteorological
observations
Research
Planting date
Sowing date
Yield changes