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"It is neither technical nor economic constraints that will prevent us from reaching our goals. We have the tools. The real challenge is to find the political will. " Ritt Bjerregaard Environmental Commissioner at First Conference of FCCC Parties, Berlin 1995 1 Jim Hubbard2 "We can't ignore mounting scientific evidence on important issues such as climate change. The science may be provisional. All science is provisional. But if you see a risk you have to take precautionary action just as you would in any other aspect of business." Sir John Browne Chief Executive Officer, BP Amoco 3 1 Cited in Newell 1997, p.12. Cartoon originally published in The Dominion 27/11/00, p. 10. 3 Cited by Pew Center on Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/belc/bp_quote.cfm . BP Amoco is a member of the Pew Center’s Business Environmental Leadership Council. 2 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Where to find key information ( s = section, ss = sections, ch = chapter) observed changes & predictions: temperature, rain, sea level, ice melt for New Zealand ss 6.5, 6.6 for the world s 6.1 What is climate change? projected impacts: social, economic & ecological for New Zealand s 7.2 for the world What effect will it have? Is this connected with risk to the Ozone Layer? scientific understanding greenhouse gases & sources causes of warming & cooling climate models & scenarios natural ice ages & warm periods the El Niño cycle in New Zealand the carbon cycle & carbon sinks s 4.5 How is New Zealand contributing to the problem? New Zealand vs. other countries Kyoto Protocol parties vs. others s 7.1 ch 4 s 6.2 s 6.3 s 6.4 s 6.7 ch 5 ss 4.3, 4.4, 1.3 Figures 1.1-1.3 Which countries contribute the most? What are the international agreements? How would “carbon sinks” & “emissions trading” work? UNFCCC s 1.1 Kyoto Protocol s 1.3 emissions trading ss 5.2.3, 9.4, 9.8 carbon sinks ch 5 New Zealand policy ss 2.2, 10.1 What can be done? targets & principles national & international local government individuals What has New Zealand done so far? Government policy 1990-2001 s 2.2 more detail on Government action ch10 Select Committee inquiries s 3.2 legislation s 3.3 Table of Contents ⇒ page v Executive Summary ⇒ page 1 ch 8 ch 9 ch 11 ch 12 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Any views in this report, express or implied, are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Parliamentary Library or Parliamentary Service. Members requiring further information, copies of any of the references, or an oral briefing on this subject are welcome to contact Dana Peterson at (04) 471-9358. text complete as of 30 August 2001 published 5 September 2001 Parliamentary Library Wellington, New Zealand Special thanks to all of the reviewers of the draft text, and to Linda Chin for assistance with editing and printing. Copyright NZ Parliamentary Library Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including information storage and retrieval systems, other than by Members of Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the consent of the Parliamentary Librarian, Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand. iv The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 CONTENTS Where to find key information (flow chart) Lists of tables, figures and boxes iii viii Executive summary 1 Part A: The policy context 1 International climate change agreements 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2 15 Agencies and Ministers involved 15 A brief summary of Government climate change policy 1990-2001 16 Activities in the House of Representatives 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Part B: 4 5 6 6 10 10 11 11 12 New Zealand climate change policy - an overview 2.1 2.2 3 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP1, COP2, and the Berlin Mandate COP3 and the Kyoto Protocol COP4 and COP5: developing the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms COP6 part one: failure to agree COP6 part two: compromise and agreement New Zealand’s participation in UNFCCC negotiations “Contraction and Convergence”: a possible way forward? 5 Report of the Controller and Auditor-General Select Committee inquiries 3.2.1 Local Government and Environment Committee 2000: role of local government in climate change initiatives 3.2.2 Transport and Environment Committee 1998: environmental effects of road transport Legislation 3.3.1 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000 3.3.2 International Treaties Bill (2000) 3.3.3 Road Traffic Reduction Bill (2001) Energy efficiency in the Parliamentary Buildings 19 19 20 20 23 23 23 25 26 26 Greenhouse gases and sinks The greenhouse gases 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 The “greenhouse effect” and contributing gases Data uncertainties New Zealand’s emissions: overview 4.3.1 Gross and net emissions 4.3.2 Mix of greenhouse gas emissions 4.3.3 Changes in total emissions 1990-1999 Emissions data on individual gases 4.4.1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) 4.4.2 Methane (CH4) 27 27 28 29 29 29 31 32 32 36 v The greenhouse effect and climate change 4.5 5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Part C: 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 39 Overview: the role of forests in the global carbon cycle 5.1.1 The carbon cycle and carbon sequestration 5.1.2 The role of deforestation in climate change The “Kyoto Forest” 5.2.1 Greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the land-use change and forestry sector 5.2.2 Rules governing carbon sinks and trading Remaining land-use and forestry issues 5.3.1 Adequacy of forestry data for climate change monitoring and reporting 5.3.2 Forest sinks may not provide permanent sequestration 5.3.3 Forests cannot absorb most of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions 5.3.4 New Zealand’s “Kyoto Forest” is in private ownership 5.3.5 Climate change effects on forests 5.3.6 Protection of indigenous forests 5.3.7 “Polluter pays” principle not addressed 5.3.8 CH4 and N2O implications Trends in New Zealand land use and afforestation Other greenhouse gas sinks 5.5.1 Soil management 5.5.2 Ocean storage 5.5.3 Underground storage 39 39 40 41 42 43 46 46 47 47 48 48 49 51 51 52 54 54 55 55 The estimated risk and impacts of climate change Summary of IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group One Natural vs. anthropogenic influences on the climate Climate change models, emission scenarios, and climate change projections Paleoclimatic data: climate trends over millions of years Climate changes in Australia and New Zealand over the last 140 years Climate change projections for New Zealand The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon Summary of IPCC Third Assessment Report, Working Group Two Likely impacts in New Zealand 7.2.1 Agricultural production 7.2.2 Indigenous species and ecosystems 7.2.3 Freshwater and marine ecosystems 7.2.4 Health 7.2.5 Impacts on Mäori communities 7.2.6 Hydro-electricity generation 7.2.7 Tourism 7.2.8 International links 57 57 59 63 64 65 66 68 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 7.1 7.2 vi 37 37 37 Climate Change: current scientific understanding and projections 6.1 6.2 6.3 7 4.4.3 Nitrous oxide (NO2) 4.4.4 HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 Links with depletion of the Ozone Layer Carbon sequestration or “carbon sinks” 5.1 6 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 71 71 75 75 76 77 77 77 78 78 78 The greenhouse effect and climate change Part D: 8 83 Addressing “market failure” 83 Removing barriers to energy efficiency and renewable energy 84 Tax policies 85 Emissions trading and quotas 88 Creating a market for “green energy” 89 Financial support through grants and loans 90 Energy efficiency standards and labelling 90 The Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation 93 CDM and the nuclear energy issue 97 Economic instruments Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) Energy efficiency planning by government agencies Public awareness and concern 99 99 100 104 106 Local authority initiatives 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 12 79 81 81 81 82 82 Additional detail: the New Zealand situation 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 11 What is the target? Primary focus on energy “Good practice” policies The global commons Leadership and assistance from developed countries “Embeddeness” of issues and the “no regrets” approach 79 National and international initiatives 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 10 Options for action Overview: targets and principles 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 9 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Legal context Local authority operations Roading and transport Building codes and energy conservation Waste management Resource Management Act consents 11.6.1 The Stratford Power Station case Individual choices 109 109 109 110 111 111 112 113 117 Glossary 123 Appendix Summary of Cabinet papers released on climate change policy 125 References 127 vii The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 List of Tables Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 Table 9.4 Table 9.5 Table 10.1 Table 10.2 Table 10.3 viii Summary of greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol Summary of key agency responsibilities in the climate change area Global Warming Potential (GWP) and lifetime of the greenhouse gases Estimated uncertainty for greenhouse gas emissions and sinks data, New Zealand's 1990 baseline inventory New Zealand CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions; by weight and percent of world total Percent change 1990-1999, New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions, population, and real GDP New Zealand's anticipated assigned amount, projected net forestry carbon sinks, and potential emissions for 2008-2012 Summary of carbon emission and sink accounting and reporting for the land-use change and forestry sector New Zealand's land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting for 1999 Percent change in total greenhouse emissions data (net compared with gross) for 1998 with inclusion of estimated effects from land-use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) The Bonn agreement: caps on volume of carbon sink trading in forest management credits, by country 2008-2012, in Megatonnes of carbon per year A possible New Zealand framework for trading sink credits as put forward for discussion by the New Zealand Climate Change Programme, July 2001 Principal conclusions of IPCC Working Group I relating to climate change Extreme weather and climate events: estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes Summary of the SRES emission scenario storyline groupings, IPCC 2001 Climate change effects observed over the last century in New Zealand and Australia Current climate change projections for New Zealand; prevailing winds, temperature, rainfall, sea-level and heating energy demand Summary of some projected negative and positive impacts of climate change. Global scale projections of the IPCC relating to climate change impacts and vulnerability Regional IPCC summary of adaptive capacity, vulnerability and key concerns for Australia, New Zealand, and small island states Atmospheric CO2 stabilisation scenarios Share of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, Annex I countries, 1998 Brief summary of results from 2001 analysis of a low level carbon charge for New Zealand, with and without revenue recycling Overseas examples of tax policies that provide incentives to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Overseas examples of subsidy, grant and loan programmes for encouraging energy efficiency and use of alternative and renewable energy Overseas examples of energy efficiency standards and labelling initiatives. Examples of pilot Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation type projects and other pilot emissions trading Summary of EECA cumulative benefits to 1999-2000 EECA’s Key Output objectives and budget for 2000/01 Summary of the initiatives proposed in the Draft National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, 2001 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 10.4 Table 11.1 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Aggregate quantitative results from the UMR telephone survey of public awareness and concern about climate change CO2 emissions from the Taranaki Combined Cycle Power Station, electricity sector emissions 1998-2000, and mitigation measures required under Resource Management Act consent List of Figures Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Figure 1.3 The “Top 10” Kyoto Protocol countries for 1990 emissions of CO2 Top contributors of CO2, accumulated contribution for all countries since 1950 Estimated global emissions of CO2 from fuel in 1998, Annex I and non-Annex 1 parties Figure 4.1 Basic diagram of greenhouse and ozone layer effects Figure 4.2 Total per capita greenhouse gas emissions, Annex I countries, gross and net of LULUCF (Gg C per person) Figure 4.2(a) Gross emissions (land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) carbon sinks and emissions not included) Figure 4.2(b) NET emissions (land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) carbon sinks and emissions included) Figure 4.3 Percentage of each greenhouse gas in New Zealand’s total emissions, 1999 (CO2 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 4.8 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2 Figure 5.3 Figure 5.4 Figure 5.5 Figure 5.6 Figure 5.7 Figure 5.8 Figure 5.9 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 9.1 equivalent kilotonnes) New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990 and 1999 (CO2 equivalent kilotonnes) Percent change in greenhouse gas emissions 1990-1998. Original data in tonnes of CO2 equivalents CO2 emissions per capita 1998 from fossil fuel combustion: World average, Annex I and non-Annex I Parties, regional groupings, and selected countries to illustrate the range of values New Zealand’s CO2 emissions by source, 1990 and 1999. New Zealand’s methane emissions by source 1999, and percent change by sector 1990-1999 Estimated annual carbon fluxes in the global system, Gigatonnes of carbon per year Estimated magnitude of natural carbon reservoirs in the global carbon cycle CO2 emissions from deforestation compared with fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture, cumulative 1850 to 1998 Atmospheric concentration of CO2 : anthropogenic contributions 1750 to 2100, compared with terrestrial biosphere carbon sink potential Change in harvest of indigenous timber and clearance of scrub for establishment of new plantation forests in New Zealand, 1989-2000 Time profile of carbon sequestration over 120 years, kauri compared to radiata Pine Trends in New Zealand livestock numbers and lands newly planted in production forest, 1950 to 2000 Estimated percentage of New Zealand under forest cover, from before human settlement to the present Proportion of New Zealand land in forest and other land uses, 2001 Natural and anthropogenic “radiative forcing” factors known to affect climate Projections based on natural, anthropogenic, and combined climate change factors, compared to actual observed temperatures 1850 to 2000 Projected changes to temperature and rainfall for New Zealand, 1980s to 2080s Change from 1991 to 1998 in the share of renewable and waste energy sources in total primary energy supply (TPES) and total electricity: selected countries ix The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 10.1 Figure 10.2 Figure 10.3 Figure 12.1 Figure 12.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Actual and projected funding for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA), 1993/94 to 2005/06 (GST inclusive, in $1,000, nominal (not adjusted for CPI)) Total real funding for EECA 1993/94 to 2000/01 (adjusted for CPI, in current dollar terms) Ratings of government agency energy-efficiency policy, management, monitoring, staff training, and funding, 1999 Greenhouse gas emissions from different forms of transport Energy efficiency information: standby power, fluorescent lights, cooking modes, and paper List of Boxes Box 1 Box 2 Box 3 Box 4 Box 5 Box 6 Box 7 Box 8 Box 9 Box 10 Box 11 Box 12 x Share of 1990 CO2 emissions for Kyoto Protocol Annex B Parties, by percentage of total and by UNFCCC negotiating groupings Summary of agreements reached at COP6 part two, July 2001. The New Zealand Delegation to the Kyoto Protocol negotiations at COP6, The Hague, 13-24 November 2000 Conclusions and recommendations of the Controller and Auditor-General relating to climate change agreements, April, 2001 Local Government and Environment Select Committee Inquiry into the Role of Local Government in Meeting New Zealand’s Climate Change Target: Terms of Reference Recommendations to Government, Local Government and Environment Select Committee, December 2000 Recommendations from Transport and Environment Select Committee to Government, September 1998 Examples of local authority initiatives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions Individual actions - Transport How many trees do I have to plant to absorb the carbon emitted by my car? Individual actions - In the home Individual actions - At work The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The greenhouse effect and observed climate changes • The “greenhouse effect” is a natural phenomenon in which certain gases in the lower atmosphere prevent some of the heat energy radiated from the Earth from escaping. The human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide, and some industrial gases) have over the last few centuries added to this effect, making global temperatures warmer than they would otherwise be and affecting global weather patterns. • The hole in the ozone layer is a separate phenomenon, but there are a few linkages with the greenhouse effect. For example, some gases which deplete ozone in the upper atmosphere (CFCs) also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, and the trapping of heat in the lower atmosphere by the greenhouse effect leads to a cooler upper atmosphere and a slower recovery time for the ozone layer. (section 4.5) • Average global surface temperature has already increased about 0.6°C since 1860.1 The freeze-free season has lengthened in many regions over 1950-1993. In New Zealand and Australia, temperatures have risen 0.5 to 0.9°C. (Tables 6.1, 6.4) • During the 20th century global sea level has already risen 0.1 to 0.2 metres and rainfall patterns have changed in many areas. In New Zealand and Australia, sea level has risen on average about 20 mm per decade over the last 50-100 years and rainfall trends have followed the cyclical El Niño events. (Tables 6.1, 6.4) • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2 has reported new and stronger evidence that most of the global warming observed over the last 150 years is attributable to human activities. If only human or natural influences on the climate are separately modelled they do not fully explain the historical changes, but there is a good match for both human and natural influences combined. (sections 6.1, 6.3, Figure 6.2) • Before significant human influence, the climate of the Earth alternated between warm and cold periods over cycles of tens of thousands of years (e.g. the Cambrian and Cretaceous eras and a number of Ice Ages). However, since the Industrial Revolution human activity has led to concentrations of CO2 and methane higher than at any time during the past 420,000 years, and CO2 the highest it has been for the last 20 million years. (section 6.4) Predicted climate changes • The world is already committed to some climate change which cannot be avoided, due to the long life in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gases already emitted over the last few centuries and the inertia in aspects of the global climate system. • Over the next century, there is a 90-99% chance of higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold and frost days, and reduced daytime temperature ranges over nearly all land areas. • If greenhouse gas emissions are not controlled, the result of 35 modelling scenarios predicts that global average temperature will increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100, a rate of warming without precedent over the last 10,000 years. Sea-ice, glaciers, snow cover and ice caps are predicted to decrease, contributing to a global mean sea level 1 As a global average, this includes higher and lower temperatures, including some areas (e.g. Antarctica) which have not warmed. IPCC reports go through a detailed review process with hundreds of scientific and country representatives and are the best international scientific consensus statements available on the issue of climate change. The 2001 reports use improved modelling and careful consideration of the many uncertainties. 2 1 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 rise of 0.09 to 0.88 metres over 1990-2100, and intense precipitation events (drought and flood). Tropical cyclones are predicted to increase in some areas. (section 6.1) • The impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poorest people. Those with the fewest resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable. (section 7.1) • Rainfall predictions for New Zealand arise from the expectation that cyclical El Niño events will increase or be exacerbated by global climate change. During El Niño events in the summer there are stronger and more frequent winds from the west, causing more rain in western areas and more drought on the east coast. In the winter, the wind is more from the south causing colder conditions. (sections 6.5, 6.6; Figure 6.3 p. 69) • Impact scenarios for New Zealand suggest that the resources most vulnerable to future climate change are likely to include: coastal areas; lands in eastern areas already prone to drought; crops grown near their current tolerances for temperature or moisture; some Mäori lands; indigenous species; and ski fields. Possible beneficiaries include forest owners who may be able to trade carbon sink credits and farmers of crops that may benefit from increased warmth or CO2 levels. (chapter 7) • The present level of scientific knowledge does not allow precise predictions about the nature and magnitude of human-induced climate change and its effects. Scientific uncertainty cuts both ways: the actual results may be significantly less, or considerably worse, than current estimates predict. Greenhouse gas emissions • New Zealand produces only 0.4% of the total greenhouse gases emitted worldwide. However, on a per capita basis New Zealand is the fourth largest emitter among the developed countries, exceeded only by Canada, the USA, and Australia. When carbon sink credits from land use change and forestry are included, New Zealand’s rate of emissions per capita is 8th highest. (section 4.3.1) • For most developed countries, CO2 is the principal greenhouse gas they are contributing to the atmosphere, but in New Zealand 60% of greenhouse gas emissions are methane and nitrous oxide, primarily from agricultural activities. However this relationship may reverse over the next decade as New Zealand’s CO2 emissions are increasing. (section 4.3.2) • Comparisons with undeveloped countries can only be done for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, as accurate global data by country is not available for the other emissions. On a per capita basis, New Zealand’s CO2 emissions are more than twice the world average. (section 4.4.1) • Over the last decade, New Zealand’s CO2 emissions have increased faster than population and GDP. However, New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased more slowly than GDP and population. (section 4.3.3) • New Zealand’s emissions of CO2 are below the OECD average if measured by tonnes per person or by unit of total energy used, in part because a majority (although a decreasing share) of New Zealand’s electricity is produced using hydro-electricity. However, when measured against GDP as a measure of economic production, New Zealand’s emissions of CO2 are above the OECD average, and in the company of Canada, the USA, Australia, and Korea. (section 4.4.1) • New Zealand’s historical contribution to the greenhouse effect includes CO2 from major clearance of forest over the last 150 years, and methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the resulting agricultural production. (sections 4.4.2, 4.4.3, 5.2, and 5.3) 2 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Carbon sinks • A carbon sink is a process where CO2 is removed from the atmosphere, and cannot contribute to climate change. The largest natural sink is the ocean. Fossil fuels are carbon reservoirs from ancient warm periods. Carbon sinks that people can easily enhance are vegetation and soils. Conversely, deforestation and poor soil management add more CO2 to the atmosphere. • Under the Kyoto Protocol, specified land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities are part of national greenhouse gas emission inventories and will be part of the “compliance equation”. The net effect may be positive (net increase in emissions) or negative (carbon sink credits against emissions: this is the case for New Zealand). (section 5.4) • On a global basis carbon sinks are not a complete solution: emissions must still be reduced. Even if all the forests removed from 1850 to 1998 were reinstated, it is only enough to absorb half of the CO2 emitted globally over that period from the use of fossil fuels, and CO2 emissions continue to increase. For a few countries including New Zealand, forestry carbon sinks can compensate for emissions over the medium term. (sections 5.2, 5.3) • Countries which have LULUCF credits will theoretically be able to trade these on a world market. International rules have not yet been set up. Domestic carbon emissions trading trials have commenced in Canada and Denmark, and options are being discussed for New Zealand. Cabinet has agreed in principle that domestic LULUCF credits would be able to be traded on the international market, some proportion of the benefits would go to those undertaking the sink activities, and those emitting greenhouse gases would have to pay the international market price for carbon sink credits if they required them to meet any future domestic emission quotas. (sections 5.2 and 9.4) International agreements to reduce greenhouse gases • New Zealand ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1993. The objective of the UNFCCC is to achieve “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic3 interference in the climate system.” The UNFCCC parties agreed that in pursuit of this goal they would initially pursue measures to return their emission of greenhouse gases, individually or jointly, to 1990 levels. This target was not met. (section 1.1) • The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under the UNFCCC which New Zealand signed in 1998. When it becomes effective, it will require the developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in aggregate at least 5% below 1990 levels over the period 2008-2012. However, each country has a different commitment, and for New Zealand it is to reduce emissions back to 1990 levels. (section 1.3) • The Kyoto Protocol will not be legally binding until it is ratified by at least 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating developed country parties to the UNFCCC which account for 55% of total CO2 emissions for 1990. So far, 35 of the 84 signatories have ratified it, but only one (Romania) can be counted toward the 55% of emissions ratification requirement. (section 1.3) • Because global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase since 1990, the actual reduction to meet the Kyoto Protocol target will have to be more than 5% of 1990 levels. Compared to the expected global emission levels for 2000 with current trends, the total reductions required at present would actually be about 10%. By 2010 the total reduction required at the same rate of increase would be 29-30%. For each country, it will vary by their individual target and rates of emissions increase. 3 anthropogenic = caused by people (as opposed to natural forces) 3 The greenhouse effect and climate change • Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The recent agreement in Bonn has clarified how some details of the Kyoto Protocol will work (e.g. funding, use of carbon sinks, emissions trading, the “clean development mechanism”, and enforcement), but technically has not changed the aggregate 5% target. (section 1.6, also see i-brief 2001/6) • The Kyoto Protocol would not require greenhouse gas emission controls for developing countries, which in the late 1990s contributed 39% of the global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. However, on a per capita basis the developing countries produce only 1.85 tonnes of CO2 per person, compared with 11 tonnes per person in developed countries. (section 1.3, Figures 1.3 and 4.6) • The 5% below 1990 emissions target, even if met, may not be enough to meet the UNFCCC goal of stabilising greenhouse gases at a level that will prevent dangerous interference in the climate system. Emissions from developing countries will also need to be addressed in due course, and the longer it takes the developed countries to stabilise at the target level the more emissions will accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. (section 8.1) • Climate change scenarios with atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv, or about twice the pre-industrial levels, would have about two-thirds the climate impact on new Zealand as “business as usual”, or no attempt to control emissions. This would requite much more stringent controls that currently required by the Kyoto Protocol. (section 8.1) New Zealand Government action • The Auditor-General reported in April 2001 that New Zealand is meeting its UNFCCC obligations except the first and most important one, to formulate and implement national policies to mitigate climate change through limiting human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. A range of policy measures has been adopted, but the measures have been ineffective. (section 3.1) • The national target announced in 1994 was to stabilise net CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000, 20% through emission reductions (voluntary agreements with industry, a national strategy and deregulation of the energy sector and a more competitive wholesale electricity market), and 80% from new carbon sinks. This target was not met. (section 2.2) • The 1994 policy also had provision to introduce a low level carbon charge (e.g. carbon tax or similar) if by mid-1997 the policy measures were not on track to achieve the target. This charge was postponed in 1997 and again in 1999. In 2001 it was referred to the Tax Review which is scheduled to report by the end of September 2001. The Government has announced that if the Tax Review recommends a carbon charge, it would not be introduced until after the next election. (section 2.2) • In 1992 the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) was established by Cabinet, and subsequently established as a Crown entity under the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000. This agency has initiated and encouraged many voluntary energy efficiency and conservation activities in the industry, government, community, and household sectors. The first national Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy under the Act is due by 1 October 2001. (section 2.2) • The New Zealand Government has announced its intent to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in September 2002. The Prime Minister has stated that although New Zealand’s contribution to global climate change was relatively small, “we must lead by example and encourage other countries to participate actively.” (section 2.2) 4 Part A: The policy context 1 1.1 International climate change agreements The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)1 The first report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 concluded that human-induced climate change was a real threat.2 In response, the United Nations General Assembly convened a series of meetings which culminated in the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the “Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in May 1992. New Zealand ratified the UNFCCC on 16 September 1993. It came into force in March 1994, and at 24 April 2001 it had been ratified by 186 countries. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to achieve: … stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.3 The principles of the UNFCCC recognise the need for developed countries to take the lead in combating climate change (Article 3). Currently 29 developed countries (including New Zealand) and 13 countries undergoing the process of transition to a market economy are listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC. These countries agreed to take appropriate measures with the aim of: …returning individually or jointly to their 1990 levels these anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol.4 The parties also agreed to set up and regularly report on national inventories of emissions, develop emission reduction programmes and report on progress; cooperate in scientific and technical initiatives, education, information exchange, and adaptation strategies; and promote sustainable management of sinks and reservoirs. The Convention recognises the need for developed countries to assist developing countries with funding and technology to help reduce emissions and cope with adverse climate change effects, and the 25 countries listed in Annex II (including New Zealand) agreed to help fund this.5 Under this framework, an initial commitment was made to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000, and to review the adequacy of that commitment. Under UNFCCC regular Conference of Parties (COP) meetings are held to develop policies and monitor progress. 1 Sources for sections 1.1 and 1.2 include the UNFCCC website http://www.unfccc.de ; Ministry for the Environment 1998 pp. 5-6, Ministry for the Environment 1999 p. 22. 2 The subsequent Third Assessment Report (TAR) in 2001 provided substantial new evidence to further document this concern. These findings are summarised in this report in chapters 6 and 7. 3 Article 2. Quotes from the full text of the Convention, on http://www.unfccc.de/resource/conv/conv_004.html 4 Article 4.2b. The Montreal Protocol controls gases known to deplete the ozone layer, some of which (e.g. CFCs and HFCs) also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. See also section 4.5 for more information. 5 New Zealand is in both Annex I and Annex II of the UNFCCC. The greenhouse effect and climate change 1.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 COP1, COP2, and the Berlin Mandate The first Conference of Parties (COP1) in April 1995 concluded that not only would the original UNFCCC target not be met, but also that those commitments were not sufficient to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. The Berlin Mandate was agreed to, which set up a process to develop additional commitments for developed countries beyond the year 2000. At COP1 the Parties also agreed to establish a pilot phase for Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), to operate under the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (SBTA) in coordination with the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). This is a precursor to Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) activities referred to later in the Kyoto Protocol.6 At COP2, in Geneva in July 1996, the Geneva Ministerial Declaration was accepted by most ministers and heads of delegation. This endorsed the scientific advice of the IPCC that “there is already a discernable human impact on global climate” and called for legally binding commitments. 1.3 COP3 and the Kyoto Protocol COP3 was held in Kyoto, and after intense negotiation the Kyoto Protocol was agreed to on 11 December 1997. In order to reach agreement, a number of matters were left to be worked out in more detail later. New Zealand signed the protocol in May 1998, but has not ratified it. Government intends to ratify it in 2002 (section 2.2). Under Article 3 and Annex B, the Protocol sets greenhouse gas emission targets for 33 countries are to achieve during the period 2008 to 2012. The aggregate reduction for these countries is “at least 5%” below the 1990 emissions level (Article 3.1), but different countries have different targets. In addition, signatory countries undergoing transition to a market economy are allowed to have different base years than 1990 (Article 3.5). The emission reduction targets set out in the Protocol are summarised in Table 1.1. The “assigned amount” for emissions for each country for the first commitment period 2008-2012 is the base year gross emissions of all greenhouse gases in CO2 equivalents, multiplied by the reduction target, and multiplied by five (for the five years 2008-2012). Emissions data continues to be refined, and the base year level has not yet been “frozen”. If the current data is used, New Zealand’s assigned amount would be about 365 m tonnes for 2008-2012.7 The assigned amounts are based on gross emissions, but accounting for those emissions in 2008-2012 will be based on net emissions, to allow for emissions and sinks from specified landuse (afforestation, reforestation and deforestation). The 1990 base year was selected as a partial counter to a potential “gross-net loophole” (see section 5.2). Although the aggregate global target is about 5% below 1990 emission levels for the developed countries, the actual reduction required will be more than that. This is because for the Annex B countries overall greenhouse gas emissions have continued to increase since 1990. Compared to the expected emission levels for 2000 with current trends, the total reductions required will actually be about 10%. By 2010 the total reduction required at the same rate of increase would be 29-30%.8 6 Decision 5/CP.1, http://www.unfccc.de/program/aij/aij_back.html . 1990 emissions of 73,064.35 Gg x 5 = 365,321.75 Gg = 365 Mt (million tonnes). A recent Government publication has used 363 Mt (New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001a, p. 7). Emissions data is in chapter 4, and a comparison of emissions and forestry carbon sinks in chapter 5 (section 5.2). 8 UNFCCC Secretariat 1997, UNEP 1998, 7 6 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The Protocol also provides for development of “flexibility mechanisms”, or ways to meet emission reduction targets other than reducing domestic emissions at source. These are: • • • “joint implementation” (emission reduction from projects shared between Annex I countries Article 6); and the ability of countries to form a “bubble” to share targets (Article 4); a “clean development mechanism” (CDM), or obtaining emissions credits through helping developing countries move to cleaner technology (Article 12), and; emissions trading (Article 17). The practical details, particularly with regard to transparency, efficiency, and accountability, were to be worked out in subsequent COP sessions. The Kyoto Protocol will be legally binding once it has been ratified. It will not enter into force until the 90th day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating sufficient Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC to account for at least 55% of total CO2 emissions for 1990, have deposited their instruments of ratification. As of 11 June 2001, 84 countries had signed the Kyoto Protocol (originally, or by undertaking accession) and 35 countries had ratified it. However, only one of the ratifying countries, Romania, is required by the Protocol to reduce emissions and can be counted toward the 55% of CO2 emissions required for the Protocol to take effect.9 A summary of the UNFCCC parties and their contribution to the 1990 CO2 emissions is shown in Box 1 and Figure 1.1. The largest contributor to CO2 emissions is the USA (33.9%), but ratification of the Protocol could theoretically be achieved without the USA (55% of emissions must be represented). When signing the Protocol the Cook Islands, Niue, and Kiribati, countries which stand to suffer significant adverse impacts from rising sea levels, declared that their signing and ratifying: “in no way constitute a renunciation of any rights under international law concerning state responsibility for the adverse effects of climate change and that no provision in the protocol can be interpreted as derogating from principles of general international law”. The Cook Islands also declared that: “in light of the best available scientific information and assessment on climate change and its impacts, it [the Cook Islands] considers the emissions reduction obligation in Article 3 of the Kyoto Protocol to be inadequate to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”10 9 UNFCCC Secretariat http://www.unfccc.de/resource/convkp.html . The countries that have ratified or joined by accession are (Annex I Parties in bold): Antigua and Barbuda, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Cyprus, Ecuador, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Fiji, Gambia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Honduras, Jamaica, Kiribati, Lesotho, Maldives, Mauritius, Mexico, Micronesia, Mongolia, Nicaragua, Niue, Palau, Panama, Paraguay, Romania, Samoa, Trinidad and Tobago, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, Uruguay and Uzbekistan. When parties join the Protocol after its original signing by “accession”, it is equivalent to ratification. 10 UNFCCC Secretariat, Declarations made by Parties upon signature, web address as in previous footnote. 7 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 1.1: Summary of greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Annex B countries grouped by emission target type Emission reduction commitment % change of base year emissions less than 1990 levels the European Community, and most of the Eastern European countries USA Canada, Japan, Hungary, and Poland Croatia stabilised at 1990 levels New Zealand, Russian Federation, and Ukraine greater than 1990 levels Australia Iceland Norway -8% Box 1: Share of 1990 CO2 emissions for Kyoto Protocol Annex B Parties, by percentage of total and by UNFCCC affinity groupings European Union Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland -7% -6% Italy Liechtenstein Luxembourg -5% Monaco Netherlands 0 Portugal Spain + 8% +10% + 1% Source: Kyoto Protocol, Annex B (on http://www.unfccc.de ) Note: full list of Annex B countries is in Box 1. Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Eastern Europe Bulgaria Croatia Figure 1.1: The “Top 10” Kyoto Protocol countries for 1990 emissions of CO2 Czech Republic Estonia Hungary (*) Latvia Lithuania Poland Canada 3.2% UK 4.0% Poland 3.3% Romania Italy 3.0% Slovakia France 2.7% Slovenia United States 33.9% Ukraine Canada Iceland (*) Germany 7.0% Japan New Zealand Norway Japan 7.8% Others 13.9% 8 Russian Federation 16.4% 13.15% 0.72% not reported 1.14% 0.26% 0.58% 0.17% 0.27% 3.29% 1.34% 0.43% 0.10% 4.86% The "Umbrella Group" Australia Ukraine 4.9% 23.24% 0.43% 0.79% 0.36% 0.42% 2.67% 7.00% 0.59% 0.22% 2.98% 0.001% 0.09% 0.001% 1.11% 0.30% 1.56% 0.38% 0.31% 4.03% Austria 63.60% 1.92% 3.21% 0.01% 7.76% 0.18% 0.24% (*) denotes countries which are Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, but did not sign the Kyoto Protocol. Belarus and Turkey are Annex I Parties not in Annex B of the Protocol. Source: UNFCCC emissions data tables, A.3, on http://www.unfccc.de/resource/ghg/tempemis2.html The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Figure 1.2: Top contributors of CO2, accumulated contribution for all countries since 1950 Central America and Carribean 2% South Oceania China America 1% 8% 3% USA 27% India 2% Japan 5% Rest of Asia 6% Germany 6% Canada 2% Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Middle East & North Africa 4% Rest of Europe 22% Russian Fedn. 10% CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture, original data in 1,000’s of metric tonnes. Source: World Resources Institute et al. 2000, Data Table AC.2 Figure 1.3: Estimated global emissions of CO2 from fuel in 1998, Annex I and non-Annex I parties nonAnnex I 39% Annex I 61% Total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Source: International Energy Agency 2000, Table 1. Notes: This does not include the other greenhouse gases: reliable global data for this is not available. Annex I parties are the only countries with greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments under the UNFCCC, and all of the Annex I countries except Belarus and Turkey also have commitments under Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol. 9 The greenhouse effect and climate change 1.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 COP4 and COP5: developing the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms COP4 was held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in November 1998. The Conference agreed to the Buenos Aires Plan of Action, which established deadlines for finalising the outstanding details of the Kyoto Protocol so that it could be fully operational once ratified and entered into force. The Action Plan addressed the “flexibility mechanisms” as well as compliance issues, monitoring, and the transfer of climate-friendly technologies to developing countries.11 COP5 was held in Bonn, Germany, in November 1999. Substantive issues on which agreements were reached included improving the rigour of national reports and improving guidelines for measuring greenhouse gas emissions. The process for negotiators leading up to COP6 was also agreed on, in order to make it possible to finalise regimes for compliance, capacity-building, international emissions trading, Joint Implementation (JI), and a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and to progress resolution of accounting for greenhouse gas “sinks” and assess adverse effects on developing countries.12 1.5 COP6 part one: failure to agree13 In November 2000, the Parties met at The Hague, in the Netherlands, hoping to agree on final details on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting was suspended without reaching agreement, and rescheduled for 2001. The meeting faced a difficult challenge given the scale and complexity of the issues involved. There were some wide differences of view in developing countries, principally between the “Umbrella Group” and the European Union (EU), as well as between developed and developing countries. Late in the meeting a compromise emerged on several key issues but the full membership of the EU could not agree. Sticking points included USA demands for forest sink credits through sponsorship in other countries (Cleaner Development Mecanism), EU demand for domestic action to to be a significant part of meeting targets (“supplementarity”) and some aspects of compliance. Other disagreements arose about whether developed country sponsorship of nuclear power projects in developing countries should be granted greenhouse emission credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The parties agreed that under the CDM, “Annex I Parties will declare that they will refrain from using nuclear facilities for generating certified emission reductions under CDM”, and that priorities for CDM will be renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements.14 New Zealand opposed the USA position (mildly in public, reportedly more strongly in closed session), while continuing to support the principle of carbon sinks as a valid domestic mechanism. Also at COP6, representatives of 134 developing countries demanded a stronger voice in negotiations and a detailed programme whereby industrialised nations would transfer clean energy technologies to developing countries as well as extra funds to adapt to climate change impacts. 11 UNFCCC Secretariat, press release 14/11/98, Climate Change meeting adopts Buenos Aires Plan of Action, http://www.unfccc.de 12 UNFCCC Secretariat, press release 5/11/99, Ministers pledge to finalise climate agreement by November 2000, http://www.unfccc.de 13 Sources for this section include: CNN, 24 November 2000, EU rejects compromise climate deal; CNN, 21 November 2000, Nations in standoff over issues at global warming conference; The Press (editorial), 29 November 2000, Shirking a commitment; Environmental Defence Society 2000. 14 UNFCCC Secretariat 2001a, p. 9. 10 The greenhouse effect and climate change 1.6 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 COP6 part two: compromise and agreement The continuation of the suspended COP6 took place on 16-27 July 2001 in Bonn, Germany. Between the two COP6 meetings, there had been a reversal of USA policy, with President Bush announcing in March 2001 that he did not support the Kyoto Protocol and would not require USA power plants to cap CO2 emissions, contrary to previous campaign promises.15 The USA produces more greenhouse gas emissions than any other Annex I Party, or indeed any country in the world (see Figures 1.1 to 1.3). The USA stance was widely decried by almost all countries. The Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution that said this decision “casts doubt on the credibility of the United States as a reliable partner prepared to shoulder its share of the responsibility.” 16 Part two of COP6 prominently featured UNFCCC Parties determined to move forward with the Protocol despite the USA withdrawal.17 Broad political agreement was reached on the “operational rulebook” for the Protocol, with further detail to await COP7 and possibly subsequent meetings. A summary of the agreements that were reached is in Box 2. The media has reported “environmental campaigner” sources as stating that the new agreement will effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2% of 1990 levels by the year 2012, rather than the 5% the Kyoto Protocol originally envisioned.18 This is not an explicit part of the Bonn agreement, and is presumably based on extrapolations of the use of the allowed carbon sinks and emissions trading rather than cutting greenhouse gas emissions per se. Generally environmental groups praised the agreement as an essential (although small) step forward.19 The next Conference of the Parties, COP7, is scheduled to be held in Marrakech, Morocco, from 29 October to 9 November 2001.20 1.7 New Zealand’s participation in UNFCCC negotiations New Zealand is part of the “JUSSCANNZ” group of non-European Union industrialised countries which meet as a group to discuss various issues. The name of the group comes from the countries involved: Japan, the USA, Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, and New Zealand. Iceland, Mexico, and the Republic of Korea may also attend meetings.21 Most, but not all, of these countries plus Russia comprise the “Umbrella Group”. which often but not always have joined ranks to negotiate at UNFCCC meetings. The Umbrella Group at COP6 part I comprised Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, the Russian Federation, Norway, and the USA.22 At COP6 part two, New Zealand, Norway and Iceland reportedly broke away from Umbrella Group positions.23 While the USA, Russia, Canada, and Japan are among the “top 10” emitters (Figure 1.1), New Zealand, Norway, and Iceland do not fall into this category. 15 Letter of 13 March 2001 from President Bush to Senators Hagel, Helms, Craig and Roberts, on http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/global/environ/climate/01031401.htm ; Ambassador Johnson 2001, Statement on Kyoto Protocol and Climate Change, 5 April 2001, http://usinfo.state.gov/topical/global/environ/latest/01040601.htm . 16 Associated Press 26 April 2001, Euro Council Criticizes U.S. on Kyoto, on http://dailynews.yahoo.com 17 The USA was present at the negotiations, but was not party to the agreements reached. 18 E.g. BBC News 23/7/01, The Bonn deal: winners and losers at http://news.bbc.co.uk 19 E.g. WWF Climate Change Campaign (http://www.panda.org/climate/victory.htm ), Greenpeace (http://www.greenpeace.org), Friends of the Earth (http://www.foei.org ). The agreement has been dubbed “Kyoto Lite” by those who hoped for more. 20 UNFCCC 2000, Press release: Morocco to host next climate change conference in 2001, http://www.unfccc.de Further information on COP7 will be available on that web site, and the host country web site http://www.marrakech-web.net/cop7 . 21 UNEP 1998, COP4 Press Kit, Glossary Part I, the Players. 22 Environmental Defence Society Inc 2000, p. 4. 23 Press release 27/7/01, on http://www.greenpeace.org 11 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Another major negotiating block is the “Group of 77 plus China” which is comprised of developing countries, including the Middle Eastern oil producing nations. New Zealand’s position in international negotiations is not generally reported in detail. Incomplete clues are available from Ministerial announcements and published comments of outside observers. New Zealand, together with Saudi Arabia, the United States, Australia, Japan, Kuwait, Nigeria, and Turkey, was criticised by the Climate Action Network (a global grouping of climate- change activists) for its obstructive stance at COP5. At COP6, New Zealand was criticised for wanting to remove references to existing international environmental agreements from the eligibility rules for land-use, land-use change, and forestry, together with Australia, Canada and the United States. New Zealand has also been awarded the “Fossil of the Decade” award. 24 Such criticisms have been publicly countered by Government. In particular, it has been categorically stated that: • “New Zealand amongst other nations has been accused of trying to ‘twist’ interpretation of the Kyoto treaty to enable OECD countries to increase emissions 15 to 20 percent. New Zealand intends no such thing and is in fact advancing proposals designed to limit windfall gains. • A further bizarre accusation is that New Zealand, amongst others, favours ‘loopholes’ in rules for forestry that would give incentives to chop down old-growth forests and replace them with new plantations that would generate carbon sink credits. This is utterly untrue. New Zealand has always opposed deforestation and our proposals in this area explicitly preclude such an outcome. • New Zealand has been grossly misrepresented as supporting the use of nuclear power under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development mechanism ... New Zealand has a proud and well-known record of anti-nuclear advocacy and has never spoken in favour of nuclear energy at climate change negotiations.” 25 1.8 “Contraction and Convergence”: a possible way forward? 26 The Kyoto Protocol does not require emission reductions from the developing countries, some of which like China and India produce significant amounts of CO2 (Figures 1.2 and 1.3). This is one of the arguments that has been used by the USA to support its withdrawal from the Protocol. On a per capita basis, the developing countries produce only a fraction of the CO2 that developed countries do (Figure 4.6), but this is predicted to change over time as they seek to improve their standard of living and their populations increase. The developing countries argue that the developed countries have grown rich exploiting fossil fuels and creating the majority of greenhouse gas emissions, and thus should take the lead in cutting emissions now without seeking to impose equal responsibilities on the rest of the world without equal economic rights. Developed countries have taken the lead under the terms of the Berlin mandate in 1995 and by accepting legally binding targets under the Kyoto Protocol. The Clean Development Mechanism and the new Expert Group on Technology Transfer under the Kyoto Protocol are designed to help transfer “clean technology” to developing countries so 24 Speech by the Rt Hon Helen Clark,NZ aims to ratify Kyoto protocol on climate change by mid-2002, 8/5/00, p. 1 para 8; http://www.fossil-of-the-day.org . The concern of the Climate Action Network was that would mean land use activities given greenhouse gas emission credits under the “flexibility mechanisms” of Article 3 of the Kyoto protocol would not be required to conform with the Conventions on Biological Diversity, Desertification, Wetlands, and Forests, Agenda 21, or the ILO. 25 NZ committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, http://www.executive.govt.nz/speech?speechralph=31390&SR=0 26 Further details available at Global Commons Institute website http://www.gci.org.uk. 12 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 that they can begin to disengage their economies from reliance on fossil fuels, but this is only on a project-by-project basis. 13 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 2: Summary of agreements reached at COP6 part two, July 2001 Flexibility mechanisms vs. domestic actions Emissions trading and use of Clean Development Mechanism should be supplemental to domestic action: i.e. domestic action shall constitute a significant element of the effort made by each Party (VII.1.5). However, there are no quantitative restrictions on the use of flexibility mechanisms. • Land-use, land-use change, and forestry There are caps on credits available from forestry management, different for each Party: see Appendix Z (VII.6(c)). Russia, Japan and Canada negotiated special concessions in this area. There are no caps on other eligible land-use activities (e.g. cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation) (VII.4). • • International emissions trading Each Annex I Party should be required to maintain in its national registry (e.g.: not trade) a commitment period reserve of at least 90% of the Party’s assigned amount or 100% of 5 times its most recently reviewed inventory, whichever is lesser (recommendation only, VI.4.1). Countries which fail to meet their 2008-2012 commitments will have their eligibility to participate in emissions trading suspended (VIII.2(d)). • • Rules for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Afforestation and reforestation are the only eligible LULUCF (land-use and land-use change and forestry) activities for CDM credits in the first commitment period (VII.3.8). There is to be a cap on CDM credits from eligible LULUCF activities for meeting a Party’s emission reduction commitments (1% of a Party’s base year emissions x 5) (VII.8). Whether CDM projects contribute to “sustainable development” is to be defined by the host country (VI.2.1 and VI.3.1). There is to be a 2% levy on CDM emissions credits, to support the Adaptation Fund for developing countries under the Kyoto Protocol (section II and VI.1.10). Parties “shall refrain from using certified emission reductions from nuclear facilities to meet their commitments” (VI.2.2 and 3.2). The new CDM Executive Board to recommend to the COP8 meeting simplified procedures for small projects that involve renewable energy, energy efficiency and other anthropogenic emission reduction (VI.6). Technical advice on issues relating to forestry credits under CDM such as non-permanence, additionality, leakage, uncertainties, and socio-economic and ecological impacts (including biodiversity and natural ecosystems) to be provided for the first COP session after the Kyoto Protocol comes into force (VII.9). • • • • • • • Compliance mechanisms (part VIII) Consequences for failure to meet commitments under the Kyoto Protocol shall include: owing 1.3 tonnes in the second commitment period (starting 2013) for each tonne of commitment not met in the first commitment period (2008-2012); - being required to prepare a compliance action plan; - suspension of eligibility to participate in emissions trading; and - compliance committee to have a facilitative branch (to assist compliance) and an enforcement branch to deal with failures to comply). Additional procedures and mechanisms to be developed after the Kyoto Protocol comes into • force. • - New supervisory bodies • Three new groups to be established, an Expert Group on Technology Transfer, a CDM Executive Board and a Compliance Committee. The membership to represent Annex I and nonAnnex I Parties to the Protocol, the five global regions, and island states. This potentially gives greater voting rights to the developing and vulnerable countries (sections III.2, VI.3.5 and VIII.6). Financial and technological support for developing countries • Three new (voluntary) funding initiatives to be established focusing on least developed countries, adaptation to climate change and transfer of clean technology (sections I and II). Sources: UNFCCC Secretariat 2001c, Decision 5/CP.6 and 2001d, Press release 23 July 2001. The section references refer to Decision 5/CP.6. 14 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 3: The New Zealand Delegation to the Kyoto Protocol negotiations at COP6, The Hague, 13-24 November 2000 Members of Parliament Minister of Energy and Forestry Co-Leader, Green Party Energy Spokesperson , National Party Hon. Pete Hodgson Jeanette Fitzsimons Pansy Wong Officials Private Secretary, Minister of Energy Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Environment Division (4) Diplomatic staff (2) Ministry for the Environment Climate Change Group (4) Maruwhenua (1) Ministry of Economic Development Resources and Networks (1) Environmental Issues (1) Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Sustainable Resource Use Policy (2) The Treasury Environment, Science & Technology (1) Regulatory and Tax Policy (1) Ministry of Research, Science and Technology Chief Scientific Adviser (1 Ministry of Mäori Development Economic Development section (1) Others National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (1) Natural Resource Users’ Group (1) Forestry Industry Council (1) Environmental Defense Society (2) Source: UNFCCC 2000, List of participants, http://cop6.unfccc.int/pdf/lopcop6.pdf The “Contraction and Convergence” proposal from the Global Commons Institute could provide a straightforward and equitable path out of this dilemma. It has reportedly been endorsed by the UK Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (June 2000 report), some of the European leaders (e.g. Jan Pronk of the Netherlands and President Chirac of France), and representatives of developing countries and environmental, business, and other lobby groups. “Contraction” refers to a significant contraction in global emission levels over time, significantly larger than those envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period. “Convergence” refers to allocation of emission rights initially proportional to country income and population, which over time will coverage to a standard world value. The contraction targets, levels of emission rights, and convergence year would be up for negotiation in order to forge a global agreement. Initial per capita emission rights would be based on population for a set year (e.g. 1990). This would remove incentives for increasing population in order to increase emission rights. International emissions trading would also be part of the scenario. Countries would have an incentive to develop using greenhouse-friendly technologies in order to have surplus emission entitlements to trade. 15 2 New Zealand climate change policy - an overview 2.1 Agencies and Ministers involved Climate change policy is currently the responsibility of a group of Ministers convened by the Minister of Energy, the Hon. Pete Hodgson. Advice is provided by working groups of officials from relevant government departments, ministries and agencies, coordinated by the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. The ministerial portfolios and departments/agencies involved are:1 • • • • • • • • • • Prime Minister and Cabinet Environment Foreign Affairs and Trade Treasury Agriculture and Forestry Economic Development Te Puni Kokiri Transport Research, Science and Technology Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority The responsibilities of the key agencies are shown in Table 2.1. Table 2.1: Summary of key agency responsibilities in the climate change area. Ministry for the Environment Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade • • Ministry of Economic Development • Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry • • • • • Taking a leading role in international negotiations on climate change. Collating information on New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions and sinks, and providing reports to the FCCC Secretariat. Co-ordinating participation, and leading negotiations, in international forums on climate change. Co-ordinating papers to Cabinet for approval of negotiating positions. Gathering and analysing information on the positions taken by other countries in negotiations. Providing advice to the Climate Change Steering committee, Ministers, and others on matters such as: - energy and resource markets; - the impact of environmental and conservation policies on business; and - the use of economic instruments to achieve environmental outcomes. Conducting research on New Zealand’s climate change position in regard to agriculture and forestry. Supporting New Zealand’s climate change position on agriculture and forestry at international climate change meetings. Source: Controller and Auditor-General 2001, pp. 93-96; H. Plume (MFE) pers comm 8/2001. 1 Ministry for the Environment, Developing solutions, on http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/ccsolutions.htm . The greenhouse effect and climate change 2.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 A brief summary of Government climate change policy 1990 - 2001 On 4 June 1992, New Zealand signed the UNFCCC. The same month, after criticism of Government’s energy policy by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment,2 the Minister of Energy confirmed that the Government’s energy policy framework was: “to ensure the continuing availability of energy services, at the lowest cost to the economy as a whole consistent with sustainable development.” Key initiatives included deregulation of the electricity and gas industries and controlling environmental effects through the Resource Management Act.3 Also in 1992, low rainfall led to low storage levels in the South Island hydro lakes, a power crisis, and renewed interest in energy efficiency. That year, the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) was established by Cabinet (later to be established as a Crown entity under the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000). In June 1993, the Government announced an interim climate change policy, intending to develop a comprehensive long-term strategy. The interim policy featured: • energy efficiency measures and incentives, and investigation of renewable energy options (via EECA); • increased CO2 absorption through afforestation as a temporary measure; • three policy principles: environmental effectiveness, economic efficiency, and equity. New Zealand ratified the UNFCCC on 16 September 1993.4 In July 1994, Government announced that the national target would be stabilising net CO2 emissions at 1990 levels by the year 2000. The components of the strategy were: • achieving 20% of the emission reduction, regardless of GDP growth, through: - voluntary agreements with industry to promote improved energy efficiency and conservation and greater use of renewable energy; - a ten-point energy efficiency strategy administered by EECA; and - deregulation of the energy sector and the establishment of a more competitive wholesale electricity market. • achieving 80% of the emission reduction through enhancing carbon sinks (essentially new forest plantings). • providing for the option of Government introduction of a low-level carbon charge if by mid-1997 the policy measures were not on track to achieve the CO2 net emission target by 2000 and the ‘20%’ policy objective.5 The Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) was expected to be able to contribute to meeting this target through the power to control air discharge consents involving significant emissions of CO2 and PFCs. In May 1994, the Electricity Corporation of New Zealand’s proposed Stratford gas-fired combined cycle power station, projected to increase New Zealand’s CO2 by 5%, had been “called in” by the Minister for the Environment under s 140 of the RMA. This resulted in a condition on the consent that required mitigation of any net increases from the power station above an electricity sector baseline.6 However, this remained the only example. 2 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 1992 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, p. 23. 4 http://www.unfccc.int/text/resource/country/nz.html 5 Ministry for the Environment 1998, p. 23. 6 See section 11.6.1 for more detail. 3 16 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 In 1994, an Energy Efficiency Strategy and the Energy-Wise Companies campaign were launched. In 1995-1996, an Energy Saver Fund was established with a $18 m budget over five years. However, over 1994-1997 New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions increased rather than decreased. This would have justified introduction of a carbon charge as per the 1994 policy, but in March 1997 the decision on the carbon charge was deferred until Kyoto Protocol negotiations had been finalised. In December 1998, a national transport policy statement was released. The document did not explicitly mention transport emissions or energy efficiency. However, it was expected “the costs associated with the adverse environmental effects of the transport system [will be] faced by providers and users of transport services.” 7 In January 1999, the Government released Climate Change: Domestic Policy Options Statement. This proposed options for meeting New Zealand’s Kyoto Protocol target (stabilising emissions at 1990 levels by 2008-2012). The options focused on “price signaling measures” (transferable tradable emissions permits or a carbon tax), and “complementary measures” (e.g. energy efficiency). In November 1999, policy decisions were deferred until after COP6. 8 In May 2000, the Prime Minister announced that the Government intended to ratify the Kyoto Protocol by June 2002, when the Rio Plus Ten Earth Summit will meet (10 years after the UNFCCC was originally signed). She said that wide consultation would contribute to the necessary development of policy and appropriate legislation. The Prime Minister also noted that although New Zealand’s contribution to global climate change was relatively small, “we must lead by example and encourage other countries to participate actively.”9 In April 2000, the Government had announced its support for the Green Party’s Energy Efficiency and Conservation Bill, after negotiating amendments. The Bill passed into law as the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act on 15 May 2000, nearly two years after the original Bill had been introduced.10 In August 2000, the Minister of Energy announced that the Government’s domestic climate change policy would focus initially on energy efficiency measures, with work continuing on more complex economic and regulatory options. Some Cabinet papers were released, as they were again in February 2001.11 These Cabinet decisions are summarised in Appendix A. In November 2000, the Minister of Energy announced that projects under the Crown Energy Efficiency Loan scheme administered by EECA had saved $4 m in central and local government energy costs and reduced CO2 emissions equivalent to taking 8,000 cars off the road.12 The loans scheme had not been originally continued into the 2000-2001 budget for EECA, but in November 2000 EECA was granted additional funding from the “Greens Fund”, reversing a previous decline in funding (more detail in section 10.2). More voluntary agreements under the Government Energy Efficiency Leadership Programme were to be pursued, with a target of 15% energy savings from the public sector by 2005. Mandatory energy-performance labels for appliances were approved by Cabinet, and consultation would take place before regulations were passed.13 7 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, p. 29-30; Ministry of Transport 1998, p. 5. Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, p. 31. See section 10.1 for more detail. NZ aims to ratify Kyoto protocol on climate change by mid-2002, 8/5/2000, on http://www.executive.govt.nz 10 Govt to support Energy Efficiency Bill, 3/4/2000 on http://www.executive.govt.nz. More information on the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act is in section 3.3.1. 11 Climate change policy: early decisions and directions, 30/8/2000, on http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/ccrelease.htm ; Climate change Cabinet papers released, 27/2/01,on http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/media_27_02_01.htm ; Cabinet papers available via http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/cabdec_feb_01.htm 12 Govt saving taxpayers’ dollars on energy on http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/media_15_11_00.htm 13 Energy efficiency loans saving $4m a year http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/media_12_11_00.htm 8 9 17 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 New Zealand devoted $17.1 m on climate change research in 1997-98, and the Government announced in 2001 that annual expenditure in this area was about $24 m per year.14 New Zealand also provides money to help developing countries with climate change activities. Over 1994-97 $10.4 million was contributed to the Global Environment Facility, and additional funds were provided to Pacific countries of about $2 m per year in 1998, 1999 and 2000.15 In January 2001, Cabinet agreed that domestic emissions trading, implemented across a range of sectors and supplemented with other measures where necessary, will be a central policy measure for meeting New Zealand’s Kyoto Protocol target.16 On 29 March 2001, the Draft Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy was released for public comment. By the deadline of 1 June 2001, more than 360 submissions had been received. As required under the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act, the final strategy will be issued by 1 October 2001. A summary of the draft strategy is in Table 10.3.17 In June 2001 analysis of the economic impact of a low-level carbon charge was publicly released, and the information referred to the Tax Review 2001 which is scheduled to report to Ministers by the end of September 2001. A summary of the economic impact findings is in section 9.3 (Table 9.1). In July 2001, an information document on forest sinks and the Kyoto Protocol was released. A summary of the possible rules for forest sinks and domestic carbon trading is in section 5.2. During the winter of 2001, low hydro lake levels again focused attention to energy efficiency, and the Government requested that citizens reduce energy consumption by 10% to reduce the risk of power blackouts. Energy saving tips were provided by television ads and other means. The emergency diesel generators at Parliament were activated to reduce the load on the national grid, which also created 42 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per week (section 3.4). In August 2001, the Minister of Energy announced that the Government intended working towards having legislation passed by Parliament in 2002 that would enable New Zealand to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in September 2002.18 The Prime Minister has stated: “New Zealand is a good international citizen…we must lead by example and encourage other countries to participate actively in the international effort on climate change. Ratification of the Kyoto Protocol will position New Zealand to be up with the leaders on climate change and play a small but worthy role in bequeathing future generations a more sustainable world.”19 Further detail on New Zealand’s proposed economic instruments, programmes for energy efficiency and conservation, and a recent survey of public opinion on climate change is in chapter 10. 14 Controller and Auditor-General 2001, p. 101; Government press release as reported by The Press 23/7/01. Controller and Auditor-General 2001, pp. 101-102. CBC Min(01)1/7, item d, 23 January 2001, http://www.mfe.govt.nz 17 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 2000; The Dominion 18/6/01. 18 Speech by the Hon Pete Hodgson, 9 August 2001, Climate change after Bonn, p. 5. 19 Speech by the Rt Hon Helen Clark, 8 May 2000, NZ aims to ratify Kyoto protocol on climate change by mid-2002. 15 16 18 3 Activities in the House of Representatives 3.1 Report of the Controller and Auditor-General In April 2001, the Controller and Auditor-General released the report Meeting International Environmental Obligations. Among the multilateral environmental agreements looked at in the report were the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. One of the conclusions of the Controller and Auditor-General was that information given to Parliament on climate change is not adequate. Improved reporting was recommended (Box 4). Box 4 Conclusions and recommendations of the Controller and Auditor-General relating to climate change agreements, April 2001 CONCLUSIONS New Zealand ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change - FCCC without adequate information. • In 1992 New Zealand agreed to implement the FCCC; The ratification recommendation to Cabinet appears to have met the criteria of the day, although by today’s standards it was inadequate. It did not cover the costs of implementing the FCCC in New Zealand. For example, no information was provided on the likely cost increases for fuel, building, waste disposal, electricity generation, and industrial processes. New Zealand is meeting the FCCC obligations except the first and most important one. • • • • • New Zealand has not fulfilled the main FCCC obligation to formulate and implement national policies to mitigate climate change through limiting human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. A range of policy measures has been adopted, but the measures have been ineffective. The lack of progress is despite intense policy debate on climate change since ratification in 1992. Views on FCCC have been polarised among government departments as there has been a lack of incentive to reach a satisfactory accommodation that would allow progress. However, over recent months there has been evidence of broader agreement with, for example, unanimous recommendations appearing in the climate change recommendations to Government in papers to Cabinet. New Zealand agreed to aim at reducing human-induced greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. However, gross emissions of carbon dioxide (the main greenhouse gas) have so far increased by 19% over that period. If all greenhouse gas emissions and not only CO2 are considered, then the increase is 4.8%. New Zealand is meeting the FCCC obligations to provide detailed, annually updated, inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks information; promote climate change research; provide money to help developing countries meet their obligations under the Convention; and promote climate change education, training, and public awareness. Parliament is not given a clear picture of climate change issues and progress. • Individual agencies responsible for climate change matters report separately to Parliament. There is no single report or process that pulls together all this separately reported information to provide Parliament with a clear picture of climate change issues and progress. (Recommendations on next page ⇒) The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 (continued from previous page) RECOMMENDATIONS • Climate change is complex and wide-ranging, and requires an effective “whole of government” approach to assist in resolving inter-agency differences on policy. We recommend that the accountabilities of the main agencies concerned with climate change should be expanded to encompass a requirement to collaborate with other agencies in achieving demonstrable progress on climate change obligations. • We recommend that the national impact analysis supporting any decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol should, as far as possible, include an assessment of all direct and indirect costs and benefits of ratification. • New Zealand has produced a wide-ranging consultation document on climate change policy in its Climate Change Domestic Policy Options Statement. We recommend that Parliament is provided with a similar single report on climate change issues and progress as part of the preparation for New Zealand’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. • We also recommend that the main agencies concerned with climate change provide Parliament with a regular joint report on how New Zealand is meeting its FCCC obligations. The report should: - provide a single source of information on agency performance; - explain how New Zealand is meeting its international obligations; and, - inform Parliament by outlining new policy development and issues. Source: Controller and Auditor-General 2001, pp. 81-83. 3.2 Select Committee inquiries 3.2.1 Local Government and Environment Committee 2000: role of local government in climate change initiatives On 13 June 2000, the Local Government and Environment Committee agreed on the terms of reference for an inquiry into the role of local government in meeting New Zealand’s climate change target (Box 5). After conducting preliminary inquiries and being briefed by a number of agencies and organisations,1 the Committee issued an interim report in December 2000. As the Government was currently developing climate change policy, the Committee issued the report in order to highlight the importance of taking a pro-active, co-operative approach to the implementation of climate change policy. The report conveyed 15 recommendations to Government (Box 6) and submissions were invited, particularly on 29 key questions. The deadline for submissions was 15 March 2001. 1 The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, the Ministry for the Environment, the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, Local Government New Zealand, and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment. 20 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 5 Local Government and Environment Select Committee Inquiry into the Role of Local Government in Meeting New Zealand’s Climate Change Target Terms of Reference In conducting its inquiry, the committee will examine: • The contribution local government can make to reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the exercise of planning and regulatory functions, and also through its own actions, with regard to such matters as: - land use and subdivision consents - biodiversity conservation - transport planning and traffic management - operation of vehicles - building consent processing - management of buildings - water and waste water - landfill management and waste management generally. • Any obstacles to local government playing this role, including: - legislative impediments in the above areas - information co-ordination problems at local government level, for example the appropriate roles of regional and territorial authorities in relation to land use and transportation issues. • Any central government actions that could: - assist local government in its role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including whether there is a need for national policy statement or guidelines or standards under the Resource Management Act 1991, or other legislative change, or other policy initiatives - improve co-ordination and synergies between central and local government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The committee recognises that adaptation issues need to be addressed, to the extent that world-wide mitigation activities do not succeed in reversing climate change, and may later conduct a second part to this inquiry to examine the adaptation aspect of local government responsibilities. Local Government and Environment Committee, 2000, Appendix B 21 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 6 Recommendations to Government Local Government and Environment Select Committee December 2000 Leadership by local authority on energy use That strategies be developed, in conjunction with Local Government New Zealand, for facilitating the • shift by local authorities towards more energy efficient operations. Processes under the Resource Management Act 1991 That sustainable models for urban form, incorporating integrated transport and land use strategies, be developed and promoted in the New Zealand context. That (as already recommended by the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment) guidance be • provided to local authorities on the relative weight to be afforded to the protection of outstanding natural features and landscapes under the Resource Management Act 1991 vis a vis the development of renewable sources of energy such as wind power. • Transport planning and operations That clear policies and frameworks be developed for co-ordinating and facilitating local government initiatives for enhancing public transport or for improving the energy efficiency of transport across different modes. That the legislation governing land transport strategies be amended to clarify that they should deal with • greenhouse gas reductions. That the objective of Transfund New Zealand, as set out in the Transit New Zealand Act 1989, be • amended from a ‘safe and efficient roading system’ to be a ‘safe, efficient and sustainable transport system’. That more funding be provided for public transport infrastructure and Transfund New Zealand • procedures be reformed to facilitate the switching of funds between roads and alternatives. • Waste minimisation That appropriate resources be directed towards completing and implementing the waste minimisation strategy. • Education and information That easily accessible education resources be provided to local government for informing the public of ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including through building design, and of the benefits that arise from doing so. • Obstacles to local authorities That priority be given to identifying and addressing obstacles to local government responses to climate change. • Local government involvement in policy development That the Minister of Local Government be a member of the ministerial working group on climate change. That officials from the Local Government Policy group of the Department of Internal Affairs be • represented in the officials working groups providing advice to the Government about the domestic climate change policy options. That Local Government New Zealand be given a role in developing policy frameworks for achieving • New Zealand’s climate change targets, and, where appropriate, Local Government New Zealand be involved in the officials working groups at the earliest opportunity. That full account be taken of issues and recommendations set out in the Local Government New • Zealand report on its survey of local authorities on climate change issues. • Central government example: energy efficiency That all departments, Crown entities and State enterprises be encouraged or required to implement energy efficiency programmes in their premises and activities. • Local Government and Environment Committee, 2000 22 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 3.2.2 Transport and Environment Committee 1998: environmental effects of road transport In September 1998, the Transport and Environment Select Committee tabled an interim report entitled Inquiry into the Environmental Effects of Road Transport. The terms of reference for the inquiry were to: consider the nature and scale of the environmental effects of road transport; review work currently undertaken by the Government to investigate these effects; consider the management option recommended by the Roading Advisory Group, and evaluate the official assessment of the environmental effects of that option or any variation being proposed by officials; and, identify possible mechanisms for minimising the environmental effects of road transport. • • • • The Committee made 22 recommendations to Government (Box 7). Climate change was listed in the text as one of the environmental impacts of transport. Although it was not specifically mentioned in the recommendations, a likely outcome of implementing the recommendations would be a reduction in CO2 emissions from land transport. 3.3 Legislation 3.3.1 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000 Efficiency of energy use and choice of energy source have a direct bearing on greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 . The Energy Efficiency Bill was introduced as a Member’s Bill by Jeanette Fitzsimons on 20 August 1998. The Transport and Environment Committee received submissions on the Bill, and reported it back to the House on 15 July 1999 in amended form, retitled the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Bill. The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act was subsequently given assent on 15 May 2000, and came into effect on 1 July 2000. The original Energy Efficiency Bill sought to set up an independent authority to develop national energy efficiency policy. The Committee found that the intent of the Bill was generally supported by submitters, but that the Government would not support the Bill without significant changes being made. The Government’s main concern was that the Bill appeared to shift primary responsibility for an area of policy development to a Crown entity, with the result that the responsible Minister would be politically accountable for policy and initiatives over which they had only limited control. There was also concern that the Bill pre-empted the outcome of a Government review of the appropriate governance structure for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA).2 When reporting back to the House, the Committee recommended that the Bill be amended so that the Minister rather than the Authority would be responsible for achieving the purpose of the Act; that regulations rather than rules would be available for promoting policy; that the ability to control domestic electricity prices be removed; and that the vehicle of “market development plans” to address barriers to energy efficiency in specified sectors be deleted.3 2 3 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, pp. 118-119. Parliamentary Library, Bills Digest No. 585. 23 The greenhouse effect and climate change Recommendations from the Transport and Environment Select Committee to Government, September 1998 Source: Transport and Environment Select Committee 1998, pp. 2-3. Box 7: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 24 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000 has these key features: • The purpose of the Act is to promote, in New Zealand, energy efficiency, energy conservation, and the use of renewable sources of energy. • The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority is given statutory status (s 20). • A National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy must be established. The Act requires the first Strategy to be released in draft for consultation by 1 April 2001, and finalised by 1 October 2001. Thereafter, each Strategy lasts five years, and one must always be in effect. Strategies must be consistent with any national policy statement in force (ss 819). • When preparing Strategies, the parties that must be consulted are industry and commerce, environmental and community organisations, Mäori organisations, local authorities, and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (s 13(2)). • The Authority must comply with Government policy and the Minister’s directions. Ministerial directions to the Authority are to be published in the Gazette and presented to the House (s 23). • Regulations may be promulgated by the Governor-General on recommendation of the Minister for: prescribing minimum energy performance standards and related compliance documentation; prescribing energy efficiency labelling; requiring the provision of relevant statistics; and establishing related offences and penalties for non-compliance (s 36). 3.3.2 International Treaties Bill (2000) This Bill may have relevance to New Zealand ratifying the Kyoto Protocol or entering into other international instruments on climate change. Officials consider that new legislation will be needed before New Zealand can ratify the Kyoto Protocol.4 Currently, international treaties are entered into by the Crown without specific approval from Parliament, except where new domestic legislation is required to give effect to the treaty. However, each new treaty together with an national interest analysis is required to be presented to the House under Standing Orders 384 and 385. The International Treaties Bill provides that Government cannot enter into international treaties without Parliamentary approval. The Bill would enact the provisions of Standing Orders 384 and 385 in similar form, but also require the analysis to include consistency with the Treaty of Waitangi.5 The Bill was introduced as a Member’s Bill by Keith Locke on 21 September 2000, and was referred to the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee. The closing date for submissions on the Bill was 31 March 2001, and the report to the House from the Committee is due by 7 September 2001. 4 5 Controller and Auditor-General 2001, p. 87. Parliamentary Library, Bills Digest no. 706. 25 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 3.3.3 Road Traffic Reduction Bill (2001) This Bill has relevance to New Zealand’s largest and fastest growing contributor to CO2 emissions, road transport. It was introduced as a Member’s Bill by Jeanette Fitzsimons on 3 May 2001. The Bill has the aim of requiring the Minister of Transport and regional councils to develop targets, timetables and measures for the reduction of motorised road traffic, and for these to be completed within a year of the Bill coming into force. In addition the principal objective of Transit New Zealand and Transfund New Zealand would be amended to focus on a “safe and sustainable land transport system at reasonable cost”, rather than operating a “safe and efficient roading system” as required under current law.6 As of 6 August 2001, the Bill had not yet had its first reading. 3.4 Energy efficiency in the Parliamentary Buildings In 1999, evaluation was done by EECA of Government agencies’ commitment to on-site energy efficiency. Parliamentary Service ranked 11 out of 32 (i.e. in the top half), and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet ranked 31 out of 32 (i.e. second worst).7 In 2000, Parliamentary Service won the Energy-Wise Award in the Public Sector category for its achievements in energy efficiency and conservation. Savings of 30% were obtained through such measures as replacing incandescent lamps with fluorescent lamps; reducing hours and intensity of corridor, carpark, and outdoor lighting; reducing variability in air conditioning temperatures; and installing a building automation system which allows finer control of power supply, lighting, and air conditioning. Shifting energy loads to times of the day when cheaper electricity is available has also been used to save further on energy costs.8 The Parliamentary complex has a designated energy manager, and energy costs and usage are tracked monthly as part of the business plan. A series of detailed audits are being conducted to identify further savings; one has been completed for Bowen House, and others are scheduled for later in the year. Currently a re-lamping exercise in Bowen House is expected to realise 30-40% fewer lamps while maintaining effective lighting levels, and some 10% savings in building power use.9 With the advent of the low hydrolake levels in winter 2001 and the potential for a power crisis, the Speaker of the House requested staff to undertake energy efficiency measures and directed Parliament’s diesel generators to be used to lighten the load on the national electricity grid. It is anticipated that reminders about turning off unneeded lights and equipment will be re-issued to staff over the long term to improve energy use behaviour.10 The software is being developed for the diesel generators at Parliament so they can be used for “load lopping”, or lowering the peak demands to reduce monthly networking charges. Over the three weeks prior to 22 August, power consumption from the national grid was reduced 24%.11 However, the climate change implication of using these generators is the emission of up to 42 tonnes of CO2 a week over the forecast 10 week hydrolake shortage period.12 6 Parliamentary Library, Bills Digest no. 779; Transit New Zealand Act 1989. See section 10.3 for further detail. Energy-Wise News, September 2000, pp. 26-27. 9 P. Ritchie, Parliamentary Service, pers comm 8/2001. Light meters are used to ensure 500 lux at desk areas and 350 lux in other areas. The existing lighting was more than required for health and safety requirements. 10 Email to all staff from the Speaker 31/7/01; notice in InHouse 8/8/01. 11 InHouse no. 33, 22/8/01, p.2, Parliamentary Service. 12 There are four diesel generators at Parliament, two near the Library and two under the Beehive. At optimum operating capacity under the current “load lopping” situation, each uses about 80 litres per hour and is used 50 hours per week, or 4,000 litres of diesel a week. With 2.65 kg of CO2 per litre of diesel, this is 10,600 kg or 10.6 tonnes per week. At the outset two generators were used, and the other two were brought on line later. (P. Ritchie, Parliamentary Service and T. Jamieson, EECA, pers comm 8/2001). 7 8 26 Part B: Greenhouse gases and sinks 4 The greenhouse gases 4.1 The “greenhouse effect” and contributing gases The natural greenhouse effect acts to trap some of the sun’s warmth from escaping back into space and makes life possible on Earth. It is caused by the natural compounds of water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth would be about 30ºC colder. In the last two centuries human activity has “enhanced”1 this natural effect by adding significantly higher levels of carbon dioxide (31% increase), methane (up 151%), and nitrous oxide (up 17%), as well as some artificial compounds which also act as greenhouse gases (perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride, and the ozone depleting gases). When solar radiation enters the atmosphere, visible light passes through and ultraviolet light is absorbed by the ozone layer. The visible light absorbed by the Earth is converted to heat energy, which is radiated outwards. While most gases allow heat to pass through to the upper atmosphere, the greenhouse gases absorb this heat energy and re-radiate it rather than let it escape (Figure 4.1). The hole in the ozone layer is a separate phenomenon, but there are a few linkages with the greenhouse effect. These are listed in section 4.5. solar radiation UV greenhouse effect Solar radiation absorbed by the Earth is radiated as infra-red (heat). Green-house gases in the troposphere absorb and reradiate some of this heat back to the Earth. Figure 4.1 light visible light hole in ozone layer An intact ozone layer in the stratosphere prevents damaging UV light from entering lower atmosphere. thinning of the ozone layer lets UV light in stratosphere 15 to 50 km Earth troposphere 0 to 15 km Basic diagram of greenhouse and ozone layer effects Dana Rachelle Peterson 2001. Adapted from Controller and Auditor-General 2001, Figure 11, and greenhouse effect and ozone layer webpages published by the Ministry for the Environment, NIWA , and CDIAC. 1 The Ministry for the Environment refers to the “enhanced greenhouse effect” to describe the human contribution to climate change (e.g. Ministry For The Environment 1998, p. 2; Ministry For The Environment 1999, p. 19). The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Each greenhouse gas has a different potential to contribute to the greenhouse effect. The other gases have a more powerful per unit effect than CO2 in this respect, both as a function of their chemical properties and their lifetime in the atmosphere. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used to represent this, with CO2 assigned a GWP of one, and the other gases assigned GWPs in relation to CO2 (Table 4.1). The GWP is a “best estimate” rather than a precise measure. The GWP is used to calculate aggregate greenhouse gas emissions in “CO2 equivalents”. Table 4.1: Global Warming Potential (GWP) and lifetime of the greenhouse gases. Global Warming Potential (GWP) Greenhouse gas CO2 (carbon dioxide) CH4 (methane) N2O (nitrous oxide) HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons) 1 21 310 140 – 11,700 Lifetime in atmosphere (years) 50 - 200 14.5 120 1.5 - 250 Increase in atmosphere since 1750 31% 151% 17% (HFC-134a = 1,300) (gases with hydrogen, fluorine, and carbon, e.g. CH2FCF, known as HFC-134a) CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) SF6 (sulphur hexafluorine) PFCs (perfluorocarbons) 4,800 – 8,100 23,900 6,500 – 9,200 (gases with fluorine and carbon, e.g. CF4 and C2 F4) 85 -102 3200 3,200 – 50,000 the gases did not exist in 1750 (CF4 = 6,500) Source: Ministry for the Environment 1998, Table 1.1; http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html ; for increases since 1750, IPCC 2001a, p. 4. Notes: The GWP were calculated using a 100-year period. They are the IPCC figures from 1996. Although the IPCC reported slightly revised GWP in 2001, the 1996 figures are the ones used under the UNFCCC for country reports of emissions (H. Plume (MFE) and M Manning (NIWA), pers comm 8/2001). 4.2 Data uncertainties Data for the greenhouse gases is the most robust for CO2. Data uncertainties for the other greenhouse gases are significant, and are very large for N2O (Table 4.2). The reasons for the uncertainties include limited coverage of data collection sites and incomplete scientific understanding of the processes relating to emission and sequestration of the greenhouse gases. Table 4.2: Estimated uncertainty for greenhouse gas emissions and sinks data, New Zealand’s 1990 baseline inventory. CO2 ± 5% CH4 ± 22% N2O ± 60% CO2 sinks ± 25% Source: Ministry for the Environment 1998, Table 2.6, p. 16; H. Plume, Ministry for the Environment, pers. com. 5/2001. 28 The greenhouse effect and climate change 4.3 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 New Zealand’s emissions: overview 4.3.1 Gross and net emissions New Zealand produces a small minority of the total greenhouse gases emitted worldwide (Table 4.3). However, on a per capita basis New Zealand was the fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases among the Annex I (developed country) Parties reporting data for 1998, exceeded only by Canada, the USA, and Australia (Figure 4.2a). When CO2 removals by land use change and forestry are included, New Zealand’s rate of emissions per capita is 8th highest out of the 30 Annex I countries reporting 1998 data (Figure 4.2b). Table 4.3: New Zealand CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions; by weight and percent of world total Measure CO2 only all greenhouse gas emissions, in CO2 equivalents all greenhouse gas emissions, in CO2 equivalents, including the estimated removal by carbon sinks 1999 emissions 1998 emissions kilotonnes (= Gigagrams) kilotonnes (= Gigagrams) 30,523.13 76,831.07 28,824.31 75,010.14 54,712.68 54,050.94 percent of total world Annex I (late 1990s) countries (1998) 0.15% -- 0.18% 0.4% -0.3% Sources: Box 1 (chapter 1); Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10; UNFCCC Secretariat 2001b, Table A.1; OECD 1999, Table 2.3C. Comparisons with non-Annex I countries can only be done for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and cement manufacture, as global data by country is not available for the other emissions. This comparison is presented in more detail in Figures 1.1 to 1.3 (chapter 1) and section 4.4.1. 4.3.2 Mix of greenhouse gas emissions CO2 is the principal greenhouse gas emitted by most Annex I countries. In contrast, New Zealand has the highest ratio of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions of any of the Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC. In 1999, 60% of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions were from CH4 and N2O (Figure 4.3). These emissions are primarily from agricultural activities. Not surprisingly, the OECD countries with the next highest non-CO2 emissions also have a large agricultural sector: Ireland and Australia.2 However, New Zealand’s emissions of CO2 are increasing and methane emissions are decreasing (Figure 4.4). CO2 has been projected to become New Zealand’s primary contribution to climate change over the next decade, but recently revised data for methane emissions suggests caution about this trend.3 2 3 Ministry for the Environment 1998, pp. vii, 8. Countries data for 1990 (Figure 1.3). Ibid., pp. 31-32; M. Manning (NIWA) pers comm 8/2001. 29 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 4.2: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Total per capita greenhouse gas emissions, Annex I countries, gross and net of LULUCF (Gg C per person) 22.6 24.5 26.2 19.7 Portugal Hungary Sweden Ukraine Spain Italy France Slovakia Austria Bulgaria Poland 14.4 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.2 Estonia 6.5 14.3 Netherlands 10.1 12.7 Czech Republic 9.9 12.4 Belgium 9.5 11.6 11.7 Norway 9.4 Switzerland 4.7 8.3 8.9 10.4 8.3 9.8 7.6 9.3 7.4 Lithuania 4.3 Latvia 15.0 Germany 17.3 Monaco tonnes per person (CO2 equivalents) 30.0 Australia USA Canada NZ Ireland Finland Denmark Greece UK 0.0 Figure 4.2 (a): Gross emissions (land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) carbon sinks and emissions not included) Sources for both graphs: Emissions: UNFCCC Secretariat 2000, Table A.2. Population: http://www.popin.org/pop1998/2.htm1998. 1998 emissions data not reported for Iceland, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Romania and the Russian Federation. 28.0 Spain Lithuania Austria Italy Bulgaria Slovakia Poland 21.7 Canada Norway 21.2 USA France 14.3 Netherlands Hungary 14.2 Belgium Ukraine 14.2 Denmark 9.6 14.1 NZ 9.3 14.0 Czech Republic 8.7 12.9 Estonia 8.5 12.9 Finland 8.4 11.9 Germany 8.3 11.5 UK 8.2 11.4 Greece 7.7 Portugal 4.8 7.6 9.5 7.1 9.0 6.4 Switzerland 4.3 Sweden 15.0 Monaco tonnes per person (CO2 equivalents) 30.0 15.6 0.4 30 Figure 4.2(b): NET emissions (land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) carbon sinks and emissions included) Note: LULUCF balances can be positive (LULUCF emissions exceed sinks) or negative (sinks exceed LULUCF emissions) Australia Ireland Latvia 0.0 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Figure 4.3 Percentage of each greenhouse gas in New Zealand’s total emissions, 1999 (CO2 equivalent kilotonnes). CH4 43.7% N2O 16.1% CO2 equiv. kT 30000 CO2 39.7% HFCs, PFCs, SF6 0.4% Figure 4.4 New Zealand’s emissions of greenhouse gases, 1990 and 1999 (CO2 equivalent kilotonnes). 15000 1999 Source for both Figure 4.5 and 4.6: Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10. For comparison to other sources, kilotonnes (kT) are equivalent to Gigagrams (Gg). 0 CH4 N2O HFCs, PFCs, SF6 1990 25399 35211 11849 606 1999 30523 33594 12397 318 CO2 4.3.3 Changes in total emissions 1990-1999 Under the UNFCCC agreement, signatory countries agreed to aim to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. No countries attained this goal by design. Many have increased rather than reduced emissions, and others have achieved reductions but for reasons other than preventing climate change. The Eastern European countries, through major economic downturn, restructuring, and in some cases military destruction, have significantly reduced their industrial and domestic fossil fuel energy use, and therefore their greenhouse gas emissions (Figure 4.5). Germany’s reduction in greenhouse gas emissions has been attributed to unification with East Germany, which has lower per capita emissions (the “wall-fall effect”). Luxembourg’s ability to meet its greenhouse gas emission stabilisation target has been attributed to the conversion (for economic reasons) from coal to electric fired furnaces in the steel industry.4 The UK has achieved a reduction in emissions through the removal of subsidies from coal mining (done for economic and political reasons, rather than environmental reasons), and subsequent reduction of coal use. Similarly, New Zealand’s reduction in methane and nitrous oxide emissions, due to the impact on livestock production from the removal of agricultural subsidies and market contraction, has partially offset an increase in CO2 emissions. Under the UNFCCC reporting guidelines, policies that lead to reduction of greenhouse gases do not have to be introduced for climate change reasons. In terms of the real effect on climate change, any action that leads to net reduction of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could be viewed as legitimate. However, there are restrictions on what will be accepted for compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. 4 Newell 1997, p. 2,6. 31 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Over the last decade, New Zealand’s CO2 emissions have increased faster than population, and CO2 emissions from transport and thermal energy generation have increased faster than population and GDP. However, New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased more slowly than GDP and population (Table 4.4). Table 4.4: Percent change 1990-1999, New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions, population, and real GDP Sources: Emissions: Ministry of Economic Development 2000; Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10. Population and GDP: Parliamentary Library databases ex Statistics New Zealand. Energy use: International Energy Agency 2000, p. 11.317 (note the energy use data is for 1990-1998 rather than 1990-1999). 4.4 Measure Emissions CO2, gross All greenhouse gases, gross All greenhouse gases, net (including land-use change and forestry) CO2 emissions by major sector Domestic transport Thermal energy generation Industry Residential, commercial, agriculture Energy use TPES (Petajoules of energy) (1990-1998) Population and GDP Resident population Real GDP (1995/96 $) percent change 1990-1999 + 20.0% + 5.0% + 6.0% + 58.0% + 38.6% + 20.7% - 0.9% + 21.3% + 12.0% + 23.0% Emissions data on individual gases 4.4.1 Carbon dioxide (CO2) Comparisons with other countries New Zealand’s emissions of CO2 are below the OECD average if measured by tonnes per person or by unit of total energy used.5 This is in part because most (although a decreasing share) of New Zealand’s electricity is produced using hydro-electricity,6 whereas other countries burn more fossil fuels. France, which emits less CO2 per unit of energy than New Zealand, produces 77% of its electricity using nuclear power plants7 (a power source relatively free of CO2 emissions, but of concern for other reasons: see section 9.9). However, when measured against GDP8 New Zealand’s emissions of CO2 are above the OECD average, and similar to those of Canada, the USA, Australia, and Korea.9 This could be interpreted as indicating that New Zealand’s level of energy efficiency in economic production is lagging behind many other OECD countries. On a global basis, data is only available by country on CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. (Estimates for other sources and sinks have large uncertainties). Looking at this data on a per capita basis, New Zealand is below the Annex I Parties average and less than half that of the USA, but more than twice that of the world average (Figure 4.6). 5 1998 tonnes CO2 per person OECD average11.1 vs. New Zealand 8.51: tonnes CO2 per tonnes oil equivalent OECD average 2.4 Vs New Zealand 1.88. Source: http://www.sourceoecd.org/data 6 Data for 1998 was 76.1% of electricity and 15.4% of total energy was derived from hydropower (UNFCCC 1999, sections 5 and 6). The hydro share of electricity dropped from 73% in 1990 to 64% in 1999 (Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 2001b, p.6. 7 Europe Feb 2001, p. 26. 8 GDP = gross domestic product, a measure of economic production. 9 OECD average 0.59 kg CO2 per dollar of GDP (USD 1990), Vs. New Zealand 0.62, Canada 0.72, USA 0.78, Australia 0.83, and Korea 0.96. Source http://www.sourceoecd.org/data 32 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 M onac o Figure 4.5: Percent change in greenhouse gas emissions 1990-1998. Original data in tonnes of CO2 equivalents. 30.6 S pain 21.0 Ireland 19.1 Greec e 18.1 P ortugal 17.2 A us tralia 14.5 Canada Source: IEA 2000, Table 1; original data from UNFCCC official data FCCC/SBI/2000/11. 13.2 US A 11.2 Denm ark 9.5 Japan 9.4 Netherlands 8.4 Norway 7.7 B elgium 6.5 A us tria 6.5 S weden 6.4 Ic eland 4.7 Italy 4.4 New Zealand Finland 1.5 S witz erland 1.3 Franc e 0.9 -8.3 -15.6 -17.7 2.5 UK Germ any Hungary -22.2 Czec h Republic -24.0 Rom ania -28.5 -29.6 Rus s ian Federation -29.7 P oland S lovak ia -30.8 -46.3 B ulgaria -46.6 E stonia Ukraine -50.5 Lithuania -53.7 Latvia -67.8 -75 Luxem bourg -50 -25 0 25 33 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 4.6: CO2 emissions per capita 1998 from fossil fuel combustion: World average, Annex I and non-Annex I Parties, regional groupings, and selected countries to illustrate the range of values. Source: International Energy Agency 2000, pp. II.77-II.81. Note: This does not include CO2 from other sources (e.g. deforestation), the other greenhouse gases, or carbon sinks. Comparable global data by country is not available. Parliamentary Library, August 2001 45.19 Qatar United Arab Emirates 23.98 Kuwait 20.12 USA 20.10 Singapore 19.88 16.57 Australia 15.75 Canada Finland 11.59 Annex I Parties 11.00 Netherlands 10.92 Germany 10.45 Ireland 10.36 Russia 9.64 UK 9.28 Japan 8.92 South Africa 8.54 NEW ZEALAND 8.05 Korea 7.97 Norway 7.77 OECD Europe 7.71 Former USSR 7.56 Italy 7.48 France 6.38 Sweden 6.05 Middle East 5.78 4.62 non-OECD Europe 3.87 WORLD China 2.30 Latin America 2.15 non-Annex I Parties 1.85 1.13 Asia Africa 0.96 India 0.93 Bangladesh 0.19 Ethiopia 0.05 0 15 30 tonnes CO2 per person per year 34 45 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 CO2 emissions by source 1990 - 1999 The main contributors to New Zealand’s growing CO2 emissions are domestic transport, thermal electricity generation, and industry (Figure 4.7). New Zealand has the highest proportion of CO2 emissions from transport in the OECD (45.5% vs. the OECD average of 30%) and transport energy demand has grown, on average, 3.8% per year over the period 1991 to 1998. Transport use rates over 1990-1998 increased faster than GDP (freight up 30%, passenger transport up 36%, and real GDP up 23%).10 The increases in transport have been attributed to the removal of import tariffs on imported cars and a steep increase in car ownership 1991-1996, the relatively low taxes on transport fuels by OECD standards, and the lack of fuel economy standards for vehicles.11 The increase in electricity generation emissions has been attributed to deregulation of the energy sector, a higher than average demand year in 1997, and general growth in demand in the residential and commercial sectors.12 1990 12000 5826 5411 4812 2866 ` 2386 2800 2845 1220 615 2561 6000 3518 8748 1999 672 kilotonnes CO2 11594 Industrial process sources of CO2 include steel, cement and aluminium manufacture. Fugitive fuel emissions include natural gas venting and emissions from geothermal energy use. Sources of increases in the industrial sector include the switching from synthetic petrol to methanol production by Methanex and the growth in dairy production.13 Figure 4.7: New Zealand’s CO2 emissions by source, 1990 and 1999. Source: Ministry of Economic Development 2000, H. Plume Ministry for the Environment 2001, pers. comm. Supercedes data in Ministry for the Environment 1999, Table 3.2. Domestic transport Industry Thermal electricity generation Industrial processes Residential, commercial, agriculture Other transformation Fugitive fuels 0 percent change in CO2 emissions 1990-1999 % of that % of the sector sector total Domestic transport 32.5% 58.0% Thermal electricity 53.8% 38.6% generation Industry 21.1% 20.7% Industrial processes 20.1% 9.8% Fugitive fuels 9.3% 1.4% Residential, commercial, -1.6% -0.9% and agriculture Other energy -54.2% -27.3% transformation 100% Total + 19.2% 10 EECA at http://www.eeca.govt.nz/Conetnt/Sustainable_Transport/transfacts.htm ; see also Table 4.4. UNFCCC Secretariat 1999, paras. 44-46. 12 Ministry for the Environment 1999, p. 33; Ministry of Economic Development 2000. 13 H. Plume, Ministry for the Environment, pers. comm. 2001 11 35 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 4.4.2 Methane (CH4) Currently the largest part of New Zealand’s contribution to climate change is in the form of methane emissions. This primarily comes from “enteric fermentation” or digestive processes, particularly in ruminant livestock such as sheep and cattle (Figure 4.8). The current best estimate for methane production in New Zealand conditions is 88 kg/head/year for cattle and 12 kg/head/year for sheep.14 In ruminant livestock, it is estimated that 90% of the methane emissions come from the mouth (belching), and 10% from the other end.15 The reduction in methane emissions 1990 to 1999 (Figure 4.4) has been attributed to the significant lowering of livestock numbers in response to the removal of agricultural subsidies and unfavourable markets for livestock products.16 Figure 4.8: New Zealand’s methane emissions by source, 1999. Source: Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10. field burning of land use crop residues change & forestry 0.01% 0.33% industrial processes 0.01% manure management 0.98% energy 3.16% enteric fermentation 81.45% Note: data uncertainties are large, e.g. ± 20% for enteric fermentation, ± 35% for landfills, and ±25% for wastewater (Ministry for the Environment 1998, pp. 12, 15). landfills 7.23% wastewater 6.84% 1999 Percent change in methane (CH4) emissions 1990-1999 sector Agriculture Waste (landfills & waste water) Energy Industrial processes Land use change & forestry Total CH4 emissions kilotonnes (=Gg) 1990 1,492.2 142.7 37.5 0.1 4.2 1999 1,415.5 124.2 54.2 0.1 5.7 % of that sector % of the total -5.1% -12.9% 44.7% 0% 34.3% -4.6% -99.6% -24.0% 21.7% 0% 1.9% 100% New Zealand’s current approach to reducing methane emissions is to research livestock digestion, pasture composition, and livestock breeding to find ways of improving the efficiency of digestion. It is hoped that this will obtain the double benefit of reducing methane production and increasing the efficiency of conversion of food to bodyweight, but results will not be known for quite a few years.17 Other significant human-influenced sources of methane overseas include rice cultivation, coal mining, and natural gas venting and leaching. 14 Ministry for the Environment 2001, Section Four. Methane production varies with digestibility of feed and metabolic status of the animals. New Zealand data for swine and poultry is not available, and this potential source is omitted from the New Zealand total. 15 The Press 23/7/01, Putting the squeeze on flatulent cows. 16 UNFCCC Secretariat 1999, para. 21. 17 Government press release 20/5/01, Research the answer to greenhouse gas. 36 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 4.4.3 Nitrous oxide (NO2) As with methane emissions, most of New Zealand’s nitrous oxide emissions come from agricultural activity. These emissions are virtually all from soil management practices: synthetic fertilisers, animals wastes and waste management systems, and nitrogen leaching and run-off. The largest source of N2O emissions in New Zealand is thought to be the interaction of livestock urine with the soil. A small portion also comes from human sewage, and the burning of crop and biomass residues. Data uncertainties are estimated to be large but they are difficult to quantify; possibly in the order of ± 60%.18 Other sources of NO2 overseas, besides the sources noted above, are industrial processes including nylon manufacture. 4.4.3 HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 These compounds are artificial, and invented for a variety of industrial processes. Ironically, many of the HFCs and PFCs (e.g. HFC-134a and HFC-152a) were created as substitutes for CFCs in order to protect the ozone layer, but the new gases are also powerful contributors to the greenhouse effect. The principal sources of HFCs and PFCs in New Zealand and overseas are refrigeration and other industrial applications, and aluminium smelting. The principal source of SF6 in New Zealand is electrical switchgear, and other sources include fire suppression and magnesium production. Other sources of SF6 overseas include aluminium smelting and industrial applications. 4.5 Links with depletion of the ozone layer The processes of climate change and ozone layer depletion are quite different, but do affect each other. These linkages are summarised below. 1. CFCs19, which are key ozone depleting gases in the upper levels of the atmosphere, also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. 2. HFCs and PFCs, which were devised as ozone-friendly substitutes for the CFCs in refrigeration, are powerful greenhouse gases. 3. Ozone, which is essential to screen out ultraviolet light in the upper atmosphere, acts as a greenhouse gas when generated as a pollutant to the lower atmosphere. 4. The warming of the lower atmosphere from climate change cools the upper atmosphere. This is thought to slow down the formation of ozone. HFCs also slow the ozone recovery process. The delay in ozone layer repair caused by these factors is currently estimated at 15 to 20 years. The UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol do not address control of the CFC gases, as they are already controlled by the Montreal Protocol. This Protocol is working very well, and the ozone layer is expected to repair itself in about 70 years.20 18 Ministry for the Environment 1998, p. 16; Ministry for the Environment 2001, section four. The New Zealand report to the UNFCCC secretariat in April 2001 noted that a numerical estimate of uncertainty could not currently be provided. 19 Chlorofluorocarbons. 20 Ministry for the Environment, http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/ozone.htm and http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/ozone_climate.htm 37 The greenhouse effect and climate change 38 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 5 Carbon sequestration or “carbon sinks” This chapter is divided into five parts. First to be explained is the global carbon cycle and definition of carbon sinks (section 5.1). Next, the role of carbon sinks under the Kyoto Protocol is explored in some detail (overview, including credits for carbon trading and issues; sections 5.2, and 5.3). Last to be summarised are; the relevant historical context of deforestation and afforestation in New Zealand, and human-influenced carbon sinks other than forests (sections 5.4. and 5.5). Background information on the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is in chapter 1 and more information on international use of carbon sinks and carbon trading in sections 9.3 and 9.8. 5.1 Overview: the role of forests in the global carbon cycle 5.1.1 The carbon cycle and carbon sequestration Carbon is an essential building block of life on Earth, and cycles through a multitude of solid, liquid and gaseous forms. The natural annual fluxes in the global carbon cycle are massive compared to the carbon emissions from human activities (Figure 5.1). However, the emissions from human activity (anthropogenic emissions) are a relatively recent phenomenon and have altered the balance. All of the released gases have to go somewhere, and without sufficient absorption capacity in the ocean, soils, or terrestrial biomass, much of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases are staying in the atmosphere, where they can contribute to climate change. the atmosphere 90 100 8 GtC one-way GtC GtC two-way two-way people Fossil fuels & cement manufacture 6.2 GtC Land use change 1.5 GtC the surface ocean the land Atmosphere to vegetation 101.5 GtC Vegetation to soils & detritus 50 GtC Soils and detritus to atmosphere 50 GtC Vegetation to atmosphere 50 GtC Land erosion to ocean 0.8 GtC Land erosion to ocean 0.8 GtC Atmosphere to surface ocean 92.4 GtC Surface ocean to atmosphere 90.8 GtC Surface ocean to biota 50 GtC Biota to surface ocean 40 GtC 0.8 GtC 100 GtC twoway the intermediate & deep ocean Biota to deep ocean 10 GtC Surface ocean to deep ocean 92.1 GtC Deep ocean to surface ocean 100 GtC Deep ocean to ocean sediment 0.2 GtC Figure 5.1: Estimated annual fluxes in the global carbon cycle, Gigatonnes of carbon per year Adapted from http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/graphics/blobcarb.gif. Amounts have been rounded for totals in arrows. GtC = Gigatonne = one billion tonnes = the mass of one cubic kilometre of water. Dana Rachelle Peterson 2001 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 When CO2 is taken in and used by plants in their metabolism, part of the carbon remains as a structural part of the plant. In trees, this is largely in the form of wood. Half the dry weight of wood is elemental carbon.1 As long as the tree is alive, or the wood remains undecomposed (whether standing as deadwood in the forest or in a human-made product), the carbon is held out of circulation. Other places where carbon may be held out of circulation for varying lengths of time include fossil fuels (which hold concentrated carbon from ancient forests and swamps), soils, decaying organic matter, living creatures, dissolved CO2 in water, and the water and sediments of the deep ocean. The deep oceans are by far the largest natural global reservoir of carbon (Figure 5.2). Figure 5.2: Estimated magnitude of natural carbon reservoirs in the global carbon cycle atmosphere (1990) 1.75% terrestrial vegetation 1.42% soils,detritus, land animals 3.68% surface ocean 2.38% marine biota 0.01% dissolved organic carbon 1.63% Sources: Schloerer 1997, Soon et al 1999 p. 150; Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre deep ocean surface sediment 0.35% intermediate and deep ocean 88.78% carbon reservoirs (in gigatonnes of carbon) This process of carbon storage is often termed sequestration in the climate change literature. The terms reservoir and sink are used to describe the location of the sequestered carbon, whether in a forest, the ocean, or the soil. A further distinction is often made, referring to a sink as a place where active sequestration of carbon is taking place (e.g. a stand of growing trees) and a reservoir as a static storage place (e.g. a mature forest, where the intake of new carbon is balanced by the decomposition of old trees). 5.1.2 The role of deforestation in climate change In many countries humans have removed much of the original forest cover from the earth, and New Zealand is no exception. Forest clearance has occurred at high and middle latitudes of the earth over the last several centuries, and in the tropics in the latter part of the 20th century.2 Forest clearance, in addition to reducing biomass and biodiversity, reduces present and future reservoirs for carbon. It also releases the carbon previously held in the forest through burning (clearance or fuel wood), exposure of soil carbon to degradation, and wood degradation through use. Conversion to agricultural land also allows activities which contribute to emissions of the more powerful greenhouse gases; methane (mainly from ruminant livestock and rice cultivation) and nitrous oxide (mainly from fertiliser use and livestock). 1 2 Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p. 189. IPCC 2000, part 1, paragraph 2.5-2.7. 40 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Over the last 150 years land-use change, predominately in forest ecosystems, has contributed about half the amount of CO2 compared with the burning of fossil fuels and manufacture of cement, and comprises about a third of the total major sources of CO2 (Figure 5.3). The data on land-use change (mainly loss of forest ecosystems) is least certain: error margins are ± 55 GtC, compared to ±30 GtC for fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture. A previous estimate, for 1850 to 1990, is 122 (±40) GtC/yr for land-use change 230 GtC/yr for fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture (cited in Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p. 189). 300 Gigatonnes of carbon, 1850-1998 Figure 5.3: CO2 emissions from deforestation compared with fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture, cumulative 1850 to 1998. 270 200 136 100 0 fossil fuels land use and cement change manufacture (mainly forest ecosystems) 5.2 The “Kyoto Forest” Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol makes provision for “direct human-induced land-use change and forestry activities limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation” occurring since 1990 to be part of the calculations for Annex I Parties to meet their commitments under Article 3.1. The various new and replanted forests that could be eligible for CO2 reduction credits have been dubbed the “Kyoto Forest”. The presence of this clause and the “net emissions” approach (emissions minus sinks) was the result of hard bargaining by New Zealand, Australia, the United States and others.3 New Zealand’s policy since 1994 has been, in the short term, to achieve a majority of net greenhouse gas emission reductions through private sector planting of new forests (section 2.2). Theoretically New Zealand could meet its Kyoto Protocol target in 2008-2012 with the use of forest sinks alone (Table 5.1). However, the forest sink potential is finite. It has been estimated that forest sinks may buy New Zealand perhaps 20-50 years to pursue lasting emission reductions at source. If emissions are not significantly reduced, meeting reduction targets in subsequent commitment periods will become increasingly difficult. 3 E.g. Gillespie 2000, p. 169-173. 41 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 5.1: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 New Zealand’s anticipated assigned amount, projected net forestry carbon sinks, and potential emissions for 2008-2012. total for 2008-2012, Mt CO2 equiv. source of data Assigned amount (= allowed emissions) 365 Projected net forestry carbon sinks 100 Emissions if trends 1990-1999 continue 409 balance Alternative emission projections for “business as usual” 56 in credit 34 to 50 over the assigned amount current data for 1990 (73,064.35 Gg) times 5 for 5 year period 2008-2012 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001a, p.7. Gross emissions for 1999 (76,831.07 Gg) plus 4,917.19 from 6.4% increase (19901999 rate for 1999-2008), times 5 for 2008-2012. Assigned amount plus carbon sinks less emissions. Ministry of Economic Development, Greenhouse gas emissions trading: Overview (see link below) Notes for comparison with other sources: 1 Gg (Gigagram, or 1 billion grams) = 1 Kt (kilotonne, or 1,000 tonnes) = 0.001 Mt (Megatonne, or 1,000,000 tonnes). 1 Gg CO2 equivalent = 0.2727 Gg C (carbon). Ministry of Economic Development link http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/environment/climate/emissions/index.html 5.2.1 Greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the land-use change and forestry sector Annex I Parties of the UNFCCC are required to report emissions data to the UNFCCC Secretariat, including data on the effects of land-use change and forestry on greenhouse gas emissions.4 The data is reported both as gross emissions, and as net emissions with domestic land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) effects included. Reporting vs accounting It is important to make a distinction between reporting under Article 3.4 of the Protocol, and accounting under Article 3.3. The reporting allows carbon balances for countries to be understood and transparent to other Parties, is annual from 1990, and covers a wide range of land-use activities. The accounting is for a limited range of activities (human-influenced afforestation, reforestation and deforestation occurring since 1990), and is only for the commitment periods (2008-2012 being the first one) (Table 5.3). Table 5.2: Summary of carbon emission and sink accounting and reporting for the land-use change and forestry sector accounting 2008-2012 Article 3.3 Article 3.4 reporting 1990 forward Article 3.4 Afforestation/ reforestation forests - existing before 1990 • - newly planted after 1990 - replanted production forests Deforestation harvest of production forests • indigenous forests and scrubland • includes loss from fire Other land use activities, post 1990 Bonn agreement: limited these to: forest management, grazing land management, cropland management, and revegetation Other sinks 4 (ocean fertilisation, storage) optional cap for forest management not mentioned in Kyoto Protocol Reporting obligations are under both the UNFCCC (Article 4) and the Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.4). 42 optional The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Gross vs net Reporting is both gross and net. Assigned amounts (allowed emissions for the commitment period) are based on gross emissions at a set year (1990 for most Parties). Accounting is however based on net emissions (allowing for afforestation, reforestation and deforestation). Unadjusted, this could have created a potential “gross-net emissions loophole” of some 10%, reducing incentives to reduce emissions at source. The restrictions on land-use activities and the 1990 cut-off were inserted by negotiators as a pragmatic measure to offset this potential loophole. Some LULUCF activities such as deforestation and poor soil management can create emissions, so net emissions may actually be higher than gross emissions in reporting for some countries (Figure 4.2b, chapter 4). New Zealand’s land-use change and forestry sector reporting includes CO2 sinks in new plantation forests, and CO2 emissions from timber harvest, scrubland clearance for new plantings, and wildfires. Sinks far outweigh emissions in this sector (Table 5.3). Table 5.3: New Zealand’s land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) reporting for 1999 Source: Ministry for the Environment 2001, Appendix 5. Note: data in tonnes of carbon rather than of CO2. carbon losses scrub wildfires harvest of radiata pine forests harvest of native forests forest wildfires carbon uptake in radiata pine forests before harvest carbon sinks 203,704 3,832,376 32,980 58,859 10,204,966 The reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and sinks in the Annual Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory from Annex I countries requires these countries to also report their CO2 emissions from soils, but New Zealand’s data is currently insufficient for reporting.5 New Zealand’s net emissions data for 1998 (which included the emissions and sinks from the land-use and forestry sector) was 28% lower than the gross emissions data (without the emissions and sinks from this sector). New Zealand had the fourth largest gross-net change of all countries reporting 1998 data (Table 5.4). 5.2.2 Rules governing carbon sinks and trading Under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, countries can gain additional “assigned amount” (sink credits) for CO2 absorbed during 2008-2012 by forests established by “afforestation and reforestation” since 1990. This will be measured by the verifiable increase in carbon stock in these forests over the first five-year commitment period (2008-2012). Any loss in this carbon stock, which also includes deforestation of forests established prior to 1990, will also mean a country having to give up equivalent assigned amount. To be in compliance with the Protocol at the end of 2008-2012, countries need to have sufficient assigned amount to cover their greenhouse gas emissions.6 At COP6 part two in July 2001, agreement was reached on some of the rules for international trading of surplus carbon credits. Caps were set on the amount of credits from forestry management that could be traded, and some countries negotiated much larger amounts than others (Table 5.5). 5 6 Ministry for the Environment 2001, Documentation section 5. See also section 5.6.1 for a discussion on carbon sinks in soil. New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001, p. 8. 43 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 5.4: Percent change in total greenhouse emissions data (net compared with gross) for 1998 with inclusion of estimated effects from landuse, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Latvia Sweden Norway New Zealand Estonia Ukraine Finland France USA Switzerland Ireland Austria Spain Poland Bulgaria Portugal Hungary Italy Germany Slovakia Canada Czech Republic Denmark Netherlands Belgium Greece UK Australia Lithuania % -91.3 -37.5 -31.3 -27.9 -15.4 -15.1 -12.7 -12.5 -11.5 -11.4 -10.1 -9.5 -7.9 -7.4 -7.4 -6.2 -5.3 -4.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.2 -2.5 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 0 2.2 7.3 32.3 data not reported for 1998 Japan Iceland Russian Federation Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 5.5: The Bonn agreement : caps on volume of carbon sink trading in forest management credits, by country 20082012, in Megatonnes of carbon per year. Additions to and subtractions from the assigned amount of a Party undertaken under Article 6 (carbon trading) shall not exceed: Australia Austria Belgium Bulgaria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Latvia Liechtenstein Lithuania Luxembourg Monaco Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Ukraine Mt C/yr 0.00 0.63 0.03 0.37 12.00 0.32 0.05 0.10 0.16 0.88 1.24 0.09 0.29 0.00 0.05 0.18 13.00 0.34 0.01 0.28 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.20 0.40 0.82 0.22 1.10 17.63 0.50 0.36 0.67 0.58 0.50 1.11 Source: UNFCCC Secretariat 2001e (FCCC/CP/2001/L.7), Appendix Z, p. 12. Source: FCCC/SBI/2000/11, Table A.2. Note: The managed forests in Latvia, Sweden, Norway and New Zealand are largely not Kyoto Forests under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol, as they were planted before 1990. Unless the increase in carbon sequestration in these forests can be shown to be the result of improved forest management post-1990 under Article 3.4, they cannot be accounted for as carbon credits during 2008-2012. . (P. Maclaren, pers comm, 8/2001). The caps in Table 5.4 are to limit the use of such credits. 44 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Parties will also be required to retain in the national registry (i.e. not trade) at least five times their most recently reviewed inventory or 90% of their Assigned Amount, whichever is lesser). Parties that fail to meet their emission reduction targets will be barred from participating in international carbon trading.7 International carbon trading rules have yet to be decided, but some countries are commencing pilot domestic schemes (section 9.4). In New Zealand, a discussion document on possible rules for a domestic forest sinks trading scheme has been released (Table 5.6). A second paper providing more detail is to be developed later in the year.8 Table 5.6: A possible New Zealand framework for trading sink credits as put forward for discussion by the New Zealand Climate Change Programme, July 2001 Defining and issuing sink credits Eligible activities are limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol). • Credits could be established by statute. Those undertaking sink activities (“responsible parties”) could be issued with sink credits in proportion to each unit of CO2 sequestered in a “Kyoto Forest” (forests established by human action since 1990). A carbon sink credit could be recognised as a right separated from trees or land and able to be sold or borrowed against. The basis for claiming ownership to the carbon would be defined. • Legal advice to Government suggests that there is presently no provision in New Zealand law to define legal ownership of carbon credits. • “Responsible parties” will also be liable for carbon losses during Obligations for responsible parties Sink credit and emissions trading interface Measuring, monitoring, reporting, and claiming sink credits Enforcement and compliance Taxation 7 8 the defined period. Carbon lost through deforestation will also need to be accounted for. Sink credits could be surrendered or cancelled, or additional credits purchased to cover emissions. • Receipt of credits could be annual, or for a set period. Receipt of sink credits and incurring of obligation for debits could occur each year, or at the end of the first commitment period (2008-2012). • A point of obligation could be placed with forest owners or other responsible parties. This would include all harvesting of Kyoto Forests included in the accounting system and all deforestation of non-Kyoto forests. The responsible party would be required to monitor and report emissions from deforestation, and at the end of each reporting period to hold “emission units” or have surrendered sufficient sink credits to cover their emissions. Sink credits and emission units would: • be interchangeable, with the same unit of measurement (e.g. 1 tonne of CO2 equivalent); • be able to be bought and sold both domestically and internationally; and • allow its holder to emit the specified quantity of CO2 equivalent, and be able to be surrendered to the Government or a body responsible for authorising emissions. • Costs could be borne by sink owners. Cost-effective methods need to be developed so that the value of sink credits is not uneconomic. • Verified demonstration of carbon sinks would be required. Options include third party verifiers, self reporting against set standards, and Government agents. • Regular reporting could be supplemented with field audits. • Penalties would be imposed for non-compliance. The taxation implications will need to be considered in due course. A more detailed summary of COP6 part two decisions is in Box 2, chapter 1. New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001, p.4. Other information from the paper in chapter 5 of this report. 45 The greenhouse effect and climate change 5.3 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Remaining land-use and forestry issues There are a number of unresolved issues remaining concerning the documentation and trading of carbon sinks. Some of the key issues relating to Article 3.3 accounting and Article 3.4 LULUCF activities are discussed briefly below. 5.3.1 Adequacy of forestry data for climate change monitoring and reporting Accurate calculation and verification of carbon sequestration is dependent on good quality data on a global basis, which is not available. The data available on forests has largely been collected for political, economic, scientific and cultural reasons unconnected with climate change. Likewise, the data available on rates of carbon sequestration in forests has been done for only a few species under limited circumstances, although there are pragmatic approaches available to inventory biomass change. All methods being proposed at the moment result in approximations rather than calculations of actual real effects on atmospheric CO2 or climate change on a global basis, and each country nominates its preferred carbon accounting method. There are also approximations and uncertainties associated with emissions data for other gases and sectors (Table 4.2). There can be a huge difference in the estimated carbon sequestration and thus potential carbon credits, depending on the definition of activities and the accounting method chosen. For example, for temperate region forests, a range of IPCC definitional scenarios yielded -126 to +167 Mt C/yr-1 for average annual global carbon stock changes 2008-2012, and a range of eight New Zealand carbon stock accounting options yielded -3.5 to +3.5 Mt C/yr (a negative number means net removal of carbon).9 In submissions to the UNFCCC Secretariat, New Zealand has selected a land-based rather than an activity-based accounting method. The various land and activity based accounting methods have quite different implications for different countries for their initial assigned amounts for the 2008-2012 commitment period, and therefore obligations of reduction of emissions.10 A likely response of UNFCCC parties to the major uncertainties this creates will be to either set an arbitrary standard (not necessarily related to real carbon sequestration effects) and/or to award carbon sink credits in a very conservative way. The IPCC will develop good practice guidelines to assist countries in reporting.11 In the past decades, the relevant New Zealand data was provided by a few major forest owners. With the privatisation of the New Zealand Forest Service and the proliferation of small forest growers, it has been unclear whether sufficiently reliable forestry statistics will be available, even with the use of satellite imagery.12 Systems for improved reporting of changes to New Zealand’s carbon pools are being developed. The new carbon monitoring system will involve five-yearly updates of New Zealand’s land cover, derived primarily from satellite imagery with supplemental data from ground-based forest and scrubland plots, soil sampling, and monitoring. Acquisition of a new remote-sensing based Land Cover Database (LCDB) is scheduled for summer 2001/02.13 9 IPCC 2000, Table 3; Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p.198-206 e.g. FCCC/SBSTA/2000/9/Add.1, 25/8/00 p. 19 and FCCC/SBSTA/2000/INF.7/Add.1, 3/9/00. 11 IPCC 2000, Part 4, para. 38; J. Barton (MFE) pers comm 8/2001. 12 Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p. 195. 13 Ministry for the Environment 2001, Section five; J. Barton (MFE) pers comm 8/2001. 10 46 The greenhouse effect and climate change 5.3.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Forest sinks may not provide permanent carbon reservoirs Trees only continue to absorb additional CO2 while they are growing. The CO2 stored in forests does not represent a permanent reservoir unless the forest is protected from unsustainable harvest or destruction by fire, disease, or adverse climate change. Sustainable production forests, through replanting and appropriate management of harvesting debris, can theoretically maintain an equilibrium as a net carbon reservoir. Once trees are harvested and enter trade as wood or paper products, tracking in perpetuity to determine their permanence is virtually impossible. In recognition of this the IPCC protocols ignore harvested wood in carbon sequestration calculations: emissions are counted at the time of harvest rather than when the product decays.14 In future, methods may be agreed on to refine this accounting. 5.3.3 Forests cannot absorb most of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions On a global scale, the ability of vegetation to act as a carbon sink is limited compared to the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions. Even if all the forests that have been removed by people were replaced, they would not be sufficient to absorb the CO2 from fossil fuel emissions during the next century (Figures 5.3 and 5.4). Carbon sink capacity in vegetation is finite and limited by suitable available land, whereas fossil fuel emissions can continue as long as there is fossil fuel to burn. Figure 5.4: Atmospheric concentration of CO2 : anthropogenic contributions 1750 to 2100, compared with terrestrial biosphere carbon sink potential. parts per million CO2 750 690 500 260 250 40 70 0 Anthropogenic CO2, low estimate Anthropogenic CO2, high estimate Carbon sink potential of terrestrial biosphere - low estimate Carbon sink potential of terrestrial biosphere high estimate Source: IPCC 2001a, p.7. Forest sinks can however serve as a short-term and partial response to climate change while dependence on fossil fuel is reduced. In addition, reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions will occur if increased use of biomass fuels (e.g. wood and alcohol) are used to replace fossil fuels, and wood is used to replace materials with high embodied fossil fuel energy such as steel and concrete. On a local rather than global scale, a few countries are anticipated to be able to meet a large proportion of their emission reduction requirements from carbon sinks in the short term (e.g. 20 to 50 years), and New Zealand may well be in this position.15 New Zealand’s contribution to global climate change (even if small compared to the rest of the world) is, as for most Annex I countries, the result of substantial land-use change and everincreasing emissions from fossil fuel burning. New Zealand’s present increase in forest cover, 14 IPCC 2000, part 4, para 39, on http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/land_use/006.htm Noting however that this goes beyond the first commitment period (Articles 3.1 and 3.3), and the targets and rules for the second and subsequent commitment periods are yet to be agreed on (Article 3.4). 15 47 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 through replacing marginal farm lands with production timber plantings, has barely begun to replace the forest cover that was present in the 1800s when European colonisation began (section 5.4). 5.3.4 New Zealand’s “Kyoto Forest” is in private ownership The choice of planting site and rotation cycles for commercial forests has a strong influence on the effectiveness of forests as carbon sinks. In New Zealand these are individual private sector decisions driven primarily by economic rather than climate change objectives. The behaviour of future forest owners can be neither modelled nor controlled, but scenarios can be used to look at a range of possibilities. If, for example, timber crop rotation is changed from 28 to 25 years, the carbon density of the stand is reduced by an estimated 8 tonnes of carbon per hectare. An increase from 28 to 35 years would increase the carbon density per hectare by 20 tonnes by harvest date.16 Multiplying these figures by the 1.7 million hectares in the existing New Zealand timber estate suggests that a change of average rotation from 28 to 25 years could remove 13.6 million tonnes of carbon from New Zealand’s potential carbon sink credits, while an increase in rotation from 28 to 35 years could add 34 million tonnes. This would have a significant impact on New Zealand’s ability to meet its Kyoto Protocol obligations using forest carbon sinks. The choices of whether to plant and the timing of harvest will relate to the “discount rate” or time value used by the owner. Usually commercial rates place a higher value on present or near future benefits than on medium or distant future benefits. However, the appropriate time value to support reduction of CO2 may be very different. Currently new forest plantings continue to be established on previous pasture lands. Whether and for how long private landholders will choose to continue this trend is unknown. A further issue relates to ownership of the carbon potential of the sink. Should it belong to the country or to the private owner of the land the trees are planted on, or a mix of both? Can a way of compensating tree growers for the carbon sequestered be developed that has low monitoring and compliance costs? In July 2000, Cabinet decided that some proportion of benefits from sink credits would go to those undertaking the sink activities in New Zealand, but details are as yet unclear.17 If domestic emitters are held legally responsible for emission reductions they may choose to buy forest sink credits in lieu of reducing emissions, suggesting potential wealth transfers and transaction costs. 5.3.5 Climate change effects on forests Research has indicated that in laboratory and some field conditions, increased CO2 in the atmosphere increases photosynthesis, the growth of plants, and therefore rates of carbon sequestration. However, other factors could reduce this beneficial effect of climate change. For example: • • 16 The ability of plants to increase their photosynthesis is limited by the availability of moisture and nutrients (however, moisture stressed plants benefit the most from higher CO2 levels). Different plants respond to increased CO2 differently.18 Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p. 194-195. New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001a, p.10. 18 For example plants with the “C3” metabolism pathway (including cotton, soybeans, sunflowers, oats, barley, wheat, rice, sugar beets and groundnuts) respond well to increased CO2 , while plants with the “C4” metabolism (such as corn, sugarcane, sorghum, and sudan grass) respond better to hotter temperatures (FAO 2000, p. 12). 17 48 The greenhouse effect and climate change • • • Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Heterotrophic respiration (e.g. CO2 from bacteria and fungi involved in decomposition) is expected to increase as temperatures increase from climate change. If, as predicted, climate change increases the risk of drought, fire, pests, and heat stress, forest uptake of carbon may gradually diminish or forests even become a carbon source.19 If trees reach an acceptable sawlog size earlier, they may be felled or decompose earlier, with a net result of no improvement in carbon sequestration. The uptake of carbon will also diminish naturally as the age-class structure of global forests changes.20 The UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction has warned that as climate change progresses and temperature rises, the CO2 released from soils through increased decomposition of organic matter and increased vegetation die-off from heat stress and drought may well feed back into and accelerate the process of climate change.21 The Bonn agreement excludes carbon sink credit for removals resulting from either elevated CO2 levels above their pre-industrial level or indirect nitrogen deposition (Article Vii.1.h). 5.3.6 Protection of indigenous forests The Kyoto Protocol focuses on carbon sinks resulting from direct human-induced LULUCF since 1990. Under Article 3.3 existing non-production indigenous forests are excluded for carbon sink credit but are an emissions liability if deforestation takes place. Both standing indigenous forests and their deforestation are reported by Annex I countries under Article 3.4. The concern has been expressed by environmental groups and others that, as planting new forests will gain carbon sink credits and the carbon reservoir in old growth indigenous forests is not formally recognised, there will be a powerful incentive to log these forests in non-Annex I countries and replace them with fast-rotation production forests. Theoretically in developing countries, which are not subject to the Kyoto Protocol, the contribution of CO2 from destruction of existing forests would not be accounted for, yet the developed countries could buy credit for establishment of “new” forest sinks on those lands.22 In addition to loss of significant existing carbon reservoirs, this would present a risk of irreversible loss of biodiversity and in many countries displacement of indigenous people.23 At the Bonn negotiations there was a proposal to define afforestation eligible under the Kyoto Protocol as human-influenced conversion of land “that has not been forested for a period of at least 50 years” in order to protect indigenous forests, 24 but it was not formally agreed to. In the meantime, there have been some pilot carbon sink credit trades involving protection of indigenous forest in developing countries (Table 9.6). In New Zealand, felling of indigenous forest is governed by the Resource Management Act 1991 and 1993 amendments to the Forests Act 1949. Export of indigenous timber is now prohibited unless it comes from an area covered by a registered sustainable forest management plan or permit.25 The nature of protection for indigenous forest stands under the Resource Management Act depends on their location and the provisions of the relevant Regional Plan. Harvest of indigenous forest timber has declined markedly over the last decade. However, clearance of scrublands (which often contain native species and comprise regenerating native forest or scrub cover) for new plantation forest planting has sharply increased and then declined (Figure 5.5). 19 IPCC 2000, part I, para. 9. P. Maclaren, pers comm 7/2001. 21 http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/results.html 22 e.g. Gillespie 2000 pp. 173-177; CNN 13/11/00 Emission credits: case for trees isn’t clear-cut on http://europe.cnn.com ; http://www.greenpeace.org 23 See reference to the Declaration of the First International Forum of Indigenous People on Climate Change in section 9.8. 24 UNFCCC 2001c, Annex A, clause 1(b), http://www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop6secpart/l07.pdf 25 Forests Act 1949 s 67C, inserted by the Forests Amendment Act 1993. 20 49 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 400,000 14,000 350,000 12,000 300,000 10,000 250,000 8,000 200,000 6,000 ` 150,000 100,000 4,000 50,000 2,000 0 LINE: scrubland cleared for new production forests (in ha, 3-yr. ave.) BARS: indigenous forest harvest (in m3 merchantable timber) Figure 5.5: Change in harvest of indigenous timber and clearance of scrub for establishment of new plantation forests in New Zealand, 1989-2000 0 198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000 Calculations have been done comparing the carbon sequestration rates of production Pinus radiata forests and kauri trees in New Zealand. While the pine trees have a much faster growth rate up to harvest, and thus a faster carbon sequestration than kauri over the short term, over the long term (120 years) the picture is different (Figure 5.6). Figure 5.6: Time profile of carbon sequestration over 120 years, kauri compared to radiata pine. The time period represents one 120- year rotation of kauri and four 30- year rotations of radiata pine. 1000 800 tonnes carbon per hectare 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Age st 1 pine rotation nd 2 pine rotation 3rd pine rotation Multiple pine rotations Kauri Source: Horgan 1999, p. 78 and Horgan GP pers. comm. 2001. Originally from Hunt DG and Horgan GP (in press), Some implications for commercial forestry of including a carbon sink value among the outputs, NZ J Forestry Science. Note: Carbon sequestration rates will depend on the suitability of the site (soil fertility, moisture, temperature, etc.). This graph will not represent all sites. High standing volumes of carbon may also be achievable on suitable sites with redwoods, Douglas fir, and other pine species (P. Maclaren, pers comm 7/2001) 50 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Depending on the “discount rate” or time value used, the carbon sequestration value of kauri can be viewed as equal to or greater than pine.26 The carbon sequestration potential of native forest with mixed species and multiple canopy heights may also be different from a pine tree monoculture with optimum spacing between trees. 5.3.7 “Polluter pays” principle not addressed The “polluter pays” principle requires that those who contribute to an environmental problem should contribute to solving it. In this context, planting carbon sink forests on previous agricultural land in New Zealand may be viewed appropriate to a certain extent, in that it partially compensates for the historical loss of carbon reservoir from land clearance and emission of other greenhouse gases (CH4 and N2O) from agricultural activity. It may also partially compensate for CO2 emitted by previous farm machinery and present forestry equipment. However, it does not involve the people, communities, and sectors that have contributed, and continue to contribute, most of New Zealand’s CO2 emissions (e.g. road transport and industry) and CH4 and N2O emissions (from the remaining agricultural lands). If parties which create emissions choose to purchase carbon sink credits to counteract their emissions, then the polluter pays principle would be given effect. It can also be argued that to a certain extent, the Kyoto Protocol framework itself addresses the “polluter pays” principle, insofar as most of the countries causing the bulk of emissions have agreed to do something about it. 5.3.8 CH4 and N2O implications To understand the effect of LULUCF activities on climate change, the CH4 and N2O implications also need to be understood. There are CH4 and N2O implications for other land-use change activities subject to LULUCF credits such as wetland restoration, biomass burning, and forest fertilisation which are, as yet, poorly understood. In New Zealand, there is some evidence that forest soils are net sinks for CH4, and of course planting “Kyoto Forests” on agricultural land displaces a previous source of CH4 and N2O in the form of livestock and fertiliser use. In New Zealand, commercial foresters tend not to use fertilisers. The recent dairy boom may in due course have implications for drainage of previous swampland, loss of soil carbon, and increases in CH4 and N2O.27 New Zealand’s LULUCF accounting includes estimated CH4 and N2O emissions from scrubland clearance burning and wildfires.28 26 27 28 D. Hunt research and original analysis cited in Horgan 1999, p. 78. Ford-Robertson, Maclaren and Wakelin 2000, p. 192, footnote 11; P. Maclaren pers comm 2001. Ministry for the Environment 2001, Appendix 5. 51 The greenhouse effect and climate change 5.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Trends in New Zealand land use and afforestation Historical land-use and forestry activities prior to 1990 are technically irrelevant under the Kyoto Protocol. However, they are very relevant to gaining an understanding of how New Zealand has contributed to, and can reduce contribution to, climate change. Ruminant livestock (sheep, cattle, deer and goats) are a major source of methane and fertiliser and livestock are a major source of nitrous oxide. In New Zealand, livestock numbers rose from 38.8 million in 1950 to a peak of 78.36 million in 1982, and have since steadily declined to 57.1 million in 2000. Source: Agricultural Statistics data series, Research and Analysis section, Parliamentary Library, on Parliamentary Intranet (original data from Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture, September 2000 and Statistics New Zealand INFOS database), and MAF 2001a, Table 7. 90 2000 80 1800 70 60 50 1600 1400 1200 1000 40 30 20 10 600 400 200 0 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 0 800 LINE: expansion of planted forest are (1,000 ha) Figure 5.7: Trends in New Zealand livestock numbers and lands newly planted in production forest, 1950 to 2000. BARS: sheep and cattle (millions) At the same time, land planted in production forest rose steadily from 0.4 million ha. in 1966 to 1.77 million ha. in 2000 (Figure 5.7). The proportion on previous farmland (about 30%)29 supplanted sources of methane and nitrous oxide. The remainder, on ex- native forest or scrub lands, removed a carbon sink before starting new sequestration of CO2 . New-land planting of production forest has averaged 55,000 ha per year since 1990, driven by economic rather than climate change considerations. The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry forecasts an average of 40,000 ha of new forest plantings to 2010.30 However, when set against the historic backdrop of deforestation in New Zealand, the new forest plantings can be seen to so far have replaced only a small proportion of the forest carbon reservoirs previously removed during the European settlement period to create farmland, or lost during the Polynesian settlement period from agricultural clearances, fire, and natural climate change (Figure 5.8). 29 30 P. Maclaren, pers comm 8/2001. http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/primaryindustries/forestry/wsf2000/wsfcontents.htm; D. Lincoln (MAF), pers comm 8/2001. 52 Figure 5.8: Estimated percentage of New Zealand under forest cover, from before human settlement to the present. Forested lands as a percent of total land area. Parliamentary Library, August 2001 forested lands (%) The greenhouse effect and climate change 100 78 75 53 50 28 29.9 after European settlement at present (11/99) 25 0 prePolynesian at start of European settlement Sources: Statistics New Zealand 2000, New Zealand Official Yearbook 2000, pp. 397, 425-426; OECD 1996, p.42. Currently, of the 8.1 million hectares in forest, the majority is protected native forest in the Department of Conservation estate. The remainder is on private lands (1.7 m ha. or 21 % in production forest; 1.3 m ha. or 16% in native forest legally capable of being logged subject to consents, and 0.2 m ha., or 2.5% of other native forest on private land).31 This data is presented together with other land-use types in Figure 5.9. Privately owned natural forest 4.0% Figure 5.9: Proportion of New Zealand land in forest and other land uses, 2001. State-owned natural forest 19.2% Other nonforested land 8.8% 2001 Planted production forests 6.6% Shrubland 10.0% Tussock grassland 7.5% Pastoral, horticulture, and arable 44.0% Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2001b, Tables A2 and A3. Notes: 83,000 ha on minor offshore islands has been excluded from the total. The state-owned forest is all in protected areas managed by DOC, except for 12,000 ha in Southland (Waitutu Inc cutting rights). 31 Source as for Figure 5.8. 53 The greenhouse effect and climate change 5.5 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Other greenhouse gas sinks 5.5.1 Soil management Carbon can be held in the soil in such forms as organic matter, humus and roots, and can be lost from the soil through erosion, compaction, mineralisation, decline of soil structure, and humus oxidation.32 Agricultural practices which result in the decline of soil fertility and organic carbon in the soil include: • ploughing; • burning of biomass; • deforestation and draining of wetlands for agricultural development; • over-grazing and grazing erosion-prone soils; low productivity subsistence agriculture (“mining” of soil fertility). • Once lost from the soil reservoir, this carbon can enter the atmosphere and become available to effect climate change. The soil’s capacity to hold carbon can be enhanced through such activities as: • conservation tillage • liberal use of mulch, compost, cover crops, and other organic amendments; • elimination of bare fallow; • integrated nutrient management; • restoring eroded and salt affected lands; • agro-forestry, afforestation, and tree protection; • longer fallow periods in slash and burn agriculture; • improved pasture management; • crop rotation changes; and • preventing erosion and water conservation and management.33 “Conservation tillage” is defined as having at least 30% of crop residues covering the soil at planting. It is being increasingly practised in some developing countries, and is an integral part of organic agricultural practice. Reducing the amount of tillage (ploughing) protects soil organic matter from decomposition by minimising the chances of soil erosion. A hectare of unploughed field can absorb up to a tonne of carbon every year.34 Increasing numbers of developing country farmers are finding that zero-tillage makes both practical and economic sense.35 The eventual global carbon sequestration potential if significant areas of degraded lands were to be restored has been estimated at 125 Mt C/yr -1 for improved cropland management, 240 Mt C/yr -1 for improved grazing land management, 26 Mt C/yr -1 for improved agroforestry, and 2 Mt C/yr -1 for improved urban land management.36 In New Zealand, Landcare Research has commenced a two-year study to produce a national soil erosion related carbon budget. New Zealand is considered to have a relatively high rate of carbon loss from erosion compared many other Annex I countries. Preliminary results from the Waipoua Basin north of Gisborne suggest that in some areas annual losses may almost equal the carbon sequestered by New Zealand‘s plantation forests.37 Under the Kyoto Protocol, the new data will in due course need to be compared against New Zealand’s 1990 baseline. 32 Humus is the organic constituent of soil, formed by the decomposition of dead plants and animals. Tiwari 2000, p. 44 and Appendix 4.2. This would not be indefinitely, and the flux will depend on the initial soil carbon level, cropping, and other management variables. 35 New Scientist, An ordinary miracle, 3 February 2001, pp. 16-17; 36 Lal 1997 and Dixon et al 1994, cited in Tiwari 2000, p. 47. 37 Landcare Research, press release 5/701, Eroding uncertainty in New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions, http://www.newsroom.co.nz . 33 34 54 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 5.5.2 Ocean storage New Zealand scientists have been among those worldwide involved in experiments to enhance the ocean’s absorption of CO2 by fertilising the open ocean and encouraging the growth of plants to absorb CO2. Initial results using iron sulphate have resulted in massive blooms of phytoplankton (green algae), but it is not yet known how much CO2 has been taken up, or whether it is held in the sea or subsequently released back to the atmosphere. The implications for ecosystem health, including oxygen depletion and the impact on fisheries, are also unknown.38 Another research project proposes injection of liquid CO2 onto the seabed offshore from Kona, Hawaii. Computer models from Norway suggest that the gas would dissolve and the heavier gas-rich water would sink to the bottom. Questions have been raised about the effect of the acidity of the CO2-rich water seawater on sealife and the seabed, and the interaction with ocean circulation altered in future due to climate change.39 5.5.3 Underground storage40 Pilot projects and research are underway in Canada, Japan, Norway, the Netherlands, and the USA on the capture and storage underground of CO2. The greatest potential is seen for large point-sources of CO2 such as power stations, which are near to coal and oil mining areas where underground injection may be feasible. CO2 is already used commercially in about 70 oil fields worldwide to inject into oil reserves to reduce viscosity and maximise extraction. Potential is seen for the use of injected CO2 to displace methane from unmineable coal seams, and capture of the methane for power production. Technology is also being developed to remove CO2 prior to emission from coal burning. There remain significant technical and cost difficulties in the capture and transport of CO2, and the permanence of this option has not yet been demonstrated. The Sleipner Project in the North Sea off Norway involves removal of CO2 from natural gas, which is compressed and injected into an aquifer 1,000 metres below the seabed. This is the largest CO2 capture and storage project in the world, sequestering about 1 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Another project in the Weyburn oil field (Saskatchewan, Canada) proposes injection of about 14 million tonnes of CO2 underground to recover an incremental 120 million barrels of oil over the next 15-20 years. 38 CNN 23/1/01, Ocean fertilisation yields hope, uncertainty for global warming on http://europe.com ; INL 21/2/01, NIWA scientists find way to decrease greenhouse gases on http://www.stuff.co.nz/inl 39 Carbon sunk, New Scientist 30/6/01, p.19. 40 The source for this section is the Natural Resources Canada 2000, pp. 1-13. 55 The greenhouse effect and climate change 56 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Part C: The estimated risk and impacts of climate change 6 Climate change: current scientific understanding and projections The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in 1988. The IPCC reports go through a thorough scientific and political review process before being approved by the consensus of government delegates at a plenary meeting, and are therefore the best international scientific consensus statements available on the issue of climate change.1 In order to reach an international consensus, extreme views are moderated and consequently the published projections are conservative and carefully qualified. The most recent reports, issued in early 2001, build on the earlier reports, using the latest scientific data and improved understanding of climate processes. The earlier projections had attracted some criticism because of the limitations of the data and therefore the uncertainties of conclusions. The latest reports use careful and explicit language to describe the state of scientific understanding and degrees of certainty. As well, distinctions are made for regional, hemispheric, and global statements, based on the completeness of the data. 6.1 Summary of IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group One The Third Assessment Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was approved by member countries in Shanghai in January 2001. Many hundreds of specialists contributed to it.2 The summary conclusions, supported by the scientific data on climate change, are as follows. • An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system. • Emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to affect the climate. • Confidence in the ability of models to project future climate has increased. • There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. • Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century. • Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all 35 IPCC emission scenarios. • Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries. • Further action is required to address remaining gaps in information and understanding.3 The key details underlying these conclusions, and their degree of certainty, are summarised in Table 6.1. A brief explanation of the “emission scenarios” and how they contribute to the climate change projections is in section 6.2. 1 2 3 For more detail see the IPCC website http://www.ipcc.ch 122 co-ordinating lead authors, 516 contributing authors, 21 review editors, and 337 expert reviewers. IPCC 2001a. The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 6.1: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Principal conclusions of IPCC Working Group I relating to climate change Likelihood IPCC conclusions and projections 2001 Observations Temperature The global average surface temperature has increased about 0.6°C since 1861. (This is 0.15°C higher than the previous estimate up to 1994 due to higher temperatures 1995-2000, and takes into account various adjustments including urban heat island effects.) The 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, since 1861. This is the largest increase for any century during the last 1,000 years. Average night-time daily minimum temperatures over land increasing about twice the rate of daytime temperatures. The rate of increase over the sea was about half that over land. The lowest 8 km of atmosphere has also warmed since the 1950s. This zone is differently influenced by cooling factors such as aerosols, ozone depletion, and atmospheric circulation patterns. The freeze-free season has lengthened in many regions between 1950-1993. Some areas have not warmed (parts of the Southern Hemisphere and Antarctica). factual 90-99% 66-90% factual factual factual Interpretation Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. In the context of the climate over the last 1,000 years, the warming during the 20th century is unusual and not of entirely natural origin. Only those climate models which include both natural climate variability and anthropogenic emissions successfully reproduce 20th century climate changes. 66-90% 66-90% Projections based on 35 emission scenarios Over the next century, there will be higher maximum and minimum temperatures, more hot days, fewer cold and frost days, and reduced diurnal range over nearly all land areas. Global average temperature will increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the period 1990 to 2100. (Note: this is more than the previous IPCC projection of 1.0°C to 3.5°C, due primarily to improved models and lower projected sulphur dioxide emissions.) This rate of warming will be without precedent during at least the last 10,000 years. Observations Snow & ice Spring and summer sea-ice has decreased about 10-15% in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1950s. th Mountain glaciers in non-polar areas have been in widespread retreat in the 20 century. Snow cover has decreased about 10% since the late 1960s (satellite data). There has been about two weeks’ reduction in annual duration of lake and river ice in the midth to- high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the 20 century (surface data). Arctic sea-ice thickness has declined 40% during late summer/early autumn, and declined considerably more slowly in the winter, in recent decades. No significant trends in Antarctic sea-ice apparent since 1978. 90-99% range from scenarios 90-99% factual factual 90-99% 90-99% 66-90% factual Projections based on 35 emission scenarios Further decrease in sea-ice and snow cover, retreat of glaciers and ice caps. Local warming over Greenland will be 1 to 3 times the global average. At 5.5°C over 1,000 years the partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet would contribute about 3 metres to sea level rise. No major loss of ice from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Antarctica may gain ice mass from local increases in precipitation. Observations Sealevel th Global average sea level has risen 0.1 to 0.2 metres during the 20 century (tide gauge data). The 20th century warming has contributed significantly to observed sea level rise, through thermal expansion of sea water and widespread loss of land ice. Projections based on 35 emission scenarios The global mean sea level will rise by 0.09 to 0.88 metres over the period 1990 to 2100. (Note: this is less than the previous IPCC projection of 0.13 to 0.94 metres, due to improved models which give smaller contributions from melting glaciers and ice sheets.) 66-90% 90-99% factual 90-99% range from scenarios (continued next page) ⇒⇒⇒ 58 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 (Table 6.1, continued) Type of effect Rainfall & drought IPCC conclusions and projections 2001 th Likelihood Observations Precipitation has changed over the 20 century in many areas: - Mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere: increase of 0.5% to 1% per decade; and since mid-century, 2% - 4% increased frequency of heavy precipitation events. - Tropical latitudes (10°N to 10°S): 0.2% - 0.3% increase per decade, but not recently. - Northern Hemisphere sub-tropics (10°N to 10°S): 0.3% decrease per decade. No discernible hemisphere-wide changes in the Southern Hemisphere. 90-99% 66-90% 66-90% 66-90% factual 90-99% Projections based on 35 emission scenarios Over the next century, there will be more intense precipitation events over many areas and increased summer drying and associated risk of drought in most mid-latitude continental interiors. Observation El Niño Warm episodes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (affecting regional variation in precipitation and temperature in New Zealand and many other areas) have been more frequent, persistent, and intense since the mid-1970s, compared to the previous 100 years. Projections based on 35 emission scenarios There are some shortcomings in the current climate models that simulate El Niño. Projections from these models show little change or a small increase in the amplitude of El Niño events over the next 100 years. Even with little or no change in El Niño amplitude, global warming will lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall (risk of droughts and floods) in many regions affected by El Niño. Storms Timing of change Projections based on 35 emission scenarios Over the next century tropical cyclone peak wind and rain intensity patterns will increase in some areas. Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries. Most of the greenhouse gases are long-lived in the atmosphere, and the deep ocean and ice-sheets adjust to climate change over a very long timescale. Even after greenhouse gases are stabilised, changes in temperature and sea level will continue for centuries, but at much slower rates than if the gases weren’t stabilised. see Table 6.2 factual factual 66-90% see Table 6.2 factual Source: IPCC 2001a, at http://www.ipcc.ch 6.2 Natural vs. anthropogenic4 influences on the climate Scientific understanding of the “greenhouse”, or heat retention, effect on the atmosphere from CO2 and the other greenhouse gases is now well developed. New understanding is now emerging of how many other factors, both natural and anthropogenic,4 can cause “radiative forcing” or contribute to warming and cooling. These factors are summarised in Figure 6.1. The model simulations that best agree with climate observations over the last 140 years include both natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing effects (Figure 6.2). Climate change simulations which use only the natural influences cannot explain warming over the last 50 years, but do indicate that natural influence may have contributed to warming in the first half of the 20th century.5 Data from many locations have indicated that surface temperatures in urban areas can be warmer than in comparable rural areas. This “urban heat island effect” has featured in arguments of climate change skeptics, and has been extensively studied and debated. The most recent IPCC reports have allowed for this possible bias in analysing the available data.6 Another new adjustment in the models is for sulphate aerosols (an emission from some fossil fuels, especially coal), which act to cool rather than warm the climate (Figure 6.1). 4 5 6 Anthropogenic = created by human activity. IPCC 2001a, p. 6 and Figure 4. Soon et al. 1999, pp. 152-153; 2001a, p. 1; IPCC 2001d, Chapter 3. 59 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 It is important to realise that improved scientific understanding of climate change will not necessarily result in projections of lesser impact. Some of the recent discoveries are pointing to possible feedback loops in the global climate and biological systems that may mean accelerated climate change. Potential results from climate change which will have unknown and possibly rapid feedback impacts include: Increased rates of organic decomposition with increased temperatures, which could add more greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from natural sources; Increased methane from melting permafrost; Slowing of the ocean currents due to changes in sea ice and salinity (potential loss of carbon absorption potential and loss of Gulf Stream warming to northern Europe); Loss of the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink due to heat and drought; A lengthened fire season for northern hemisphere forests (potential for increased emissions and loss of carbon sinks); and, Greater absorption of heat from the sun to feed back into the greenhouse effect if large areas of arctic tundra are afforested for carbon sinks, as is planned in Russia and Canada (replacement of snow and ice covered reflective surfaces with conifer tree dark surfaces).7 • • • • • • Table 6.2: Extreme weather and climate events: estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes Confidence in observed changes (latter half of the 20th century) Likely Very likely Very likely Likely, over many areas Likely, over many Northern Hemisphere mid- to high latitude land areas Likely, in a few areas Not observed in the few analyses available Insufficient data for assessment Changes in Phenomenon Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas Higher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas Increase of heat index over land areas More intense precipitation a events Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind b intensities Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak b precipitation intensities Confidence in projected changes (during the 21st century) Very likely Very likely Very likely Very likely, over most areas Very likely, over many areas Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors. (Lack of consistent projections in other areas) Likely, over some areas Likely, over some areas Reproduced with permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Source: IPCC 2001a, Table 1. at http://www.ipcc.ch Confidence levels = chance of being true: virtually certain (greater than 99%); very likely (90-99%); likely (66-90%); medium likelihood (33- 66%); unlikely (10-33%); very unlikely (1-10%); exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%). Heat index” = a combination of temperature and humidity that measures effects on human comfort. “Diurnal” = daytime a = For other areas, there are either insufficient data of conflicting analysis. b = Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are uncertain. 7 http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/carbon_cycle/results.html ; New Scientist 14/7/01, p.18 and 21/7/01 pp. 4-5. 60 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Figure 6.1 : Natural and anthropogenic “radiative forcing” factors known to affect climate. Reproduced with permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Source: IPCC 2001a, Figure 3. References to other figures and chapters relate to that report. 61 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 6.2: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Projections based on natural, anthropogenic, and combined climate change factors, compared to actual observed temperatures 1850 to 2000. Figure 4: Simulating the Earth's temperature variations, and comparing the results to measured changes, can provide insight into the underlying causes of the major changes. A climate model can be used to simulate the temperature changes that occur both from natural and anthropogenic causes. The simulations represented by the band in (a) were done with only natural forcings: solar variation and volcanic activity. Those encompassed by the band in (b) were done with anthropogenic forcings: greenhouse gases and an estimate of sulphate aerosols, and those encompassed by the band in (c) were done with both natural and anthropogenic factors included. From (b), it can be seen that inclusion of anthropogenic forcings provides a plausible explanation for a substantial part of the observed temperature changes over the past century, but the best match with observations is obtained in (c) when both natural and anthropogenic factors are included. These results show that the forcings included are sufficient to explain the observed changes, but do not exclude the possibility that other forcings may also have contributed. The bands of model results presented here are for four runs from the same model. Similar results to those in (b) are obtained with other models with anthropogenic forcing. (Based upon Chapter 12, Figure 12.7) Reproduced with permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Source: IPCC 2001a, Figure 4. References to other figures and chapters for that report. 62 The greenhouse effect and climate change 6.3 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Climate change models, emission scenarios, and climate change projections There are three main bases for climate change projections: observed climate data, climate models, and emission scenarios. The models are based on the best scientific understanding of how climate works, currently including key “radiative forcing” elements summarised in Figure 6.1, and the known data on climate trends. When the models and the scenarios are combined, a range of possible outcomes is obtained. The climate change models used now are very sophisticated compared to those available for the first climate change projections. In the early 1990s, the models included atmosphere, land surface, ocean and sea-ice factors. The current models also include sulphate aerosols, nonsulphate aerosols, and carbon cycle dynamics. In future, vegetation dynamics and details of atmospheric chemistry are likely to be added.8 The 35 emission scenarios currently used by the IPCC replace the previous IS92 scenarios, and were approved in March 2001. They utilise variations in four narrative storylines that build on current social, economic and fuel consumption trends (Table 6.3). All of the scenarios describe futures generally more affluent than today, with lower populations than the IS92 scenarios. None explicitly assume implementation of the UNFCCC or the Kyoto Protocol. Table 6.3: Summary of the SRES emission scenario storyline groupings, IPCC 2001. A1 Storyline Economic growth very rapid, rapid introduction of more efficient technologies, substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income, capacity building. Population peaks midcentury and declines thereafter. Further divided into three energy scenarios: A1FI – fossil fuel intensive, A1T – non-fossil energy sources, and A1T – balance of fuel sources. A2 Storyline Emphasis on local identity, self-reliance, and regional economic development. Fertility and economic differences between countries converge very slowly. Population continues to increase. B1 Storyline Population pattern as for the A1 storyline, but rapid development of service and information economies and introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. Improved equity. B2 Storyline Population pattern as for the A2 storyline but increasing at a slower rate. Intermediate levels of economic development and less rapid technological change than B1 and A1 storylines. SRES = IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Source: IPCC 2001c, pp. 4-5. The greenhouse gas emission and climate change implications of these scenarios diverge markedly over longer timeframes, which is why the projections for temperature and sea-level change are expressed in a wide range. A summary of the likely atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases with a continuation of current emission trends, and the likely associated climate changes, is presented in Table 8.1 with a discussion on emission reduction targets. 8 IPCC 2001d, pp. 48-49. 63 The greenhouse effect and climate change 6.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Paleoclimatic data: climate trends over millions of years9 Scientists have collected various forms of data that allow reconstruction of an imperfect but increasingly clear picture of what the Earth’s climate was like in the distant past. The data sources include ice cores from Greenland, the Antarctic, and high mountain glaciers in Asia and South America (which show both annual layers and some bubbles of preserved ancient air); the fossil and pollen record (showing warm climate species in presently cold climate zones); and some older historical records (e.g. 2,000-year-old Chinese records and 800-year-old records in Europe). The data shows earlier periods were as warm or warmer than the present, and that these alternated with periods that were very much colder. Factors thought to have contributed to global warming and cooling in the distant past are: changes in land and ocean-floor topography (affecting patterns of land absorption, and air and ocean currents); changes in the tilt of the earth’s orbit and axis; fluctuations in radiation output from the sun; and changes in circulation and rising of deep ocean waters in the oceans. At least one occasion, a change in Atlantic Ocean currents causing a marked ice age cooling of Europe, was relatively abrupt (over 5-10 years).10 • Ice ages and interglacial periods Over cycles of tens of thousands of years before human interference in the atmosphere the climate of the Earth has alternated between warm and cold periods. From about 23,000 to 15,000 years before present, huge ice sheets extended into areas in the northern hemisphere that now have a temperate climate. In New Zealand, the last Glacial Maximum was between 26,000 and 18,000 years ago, and temperatures were an estimated 4° to 5°C lower than at present. New Zealand’s last warm period was between about 10,000 and 8,000 years ago and temperatures were about 1°C above modern values. The fossil record indicates a mild climate, light winds, and lush forests at this time.11 In Europe about 1,000 years ago, the Medieval Climate Optimum occurred. While the climate in Europe was colder than at present, it was mild enough in Greenland to allow colonists to settle there until the “Little Ice Age” occurred. This latter period lasted from approximately 1450 to 1890, and the global mean temperature has been estimated at 0.5° to 1.0°C lower than today. The medieval warm period was not synchronised around the planet: historical records show that it had ended 900 years ago in China and Japan, but continued for some two to three more centuries in North America and Europe.12 Air bubbles found in the Vostok ice core in Antarctica show that concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, and N2O have varied systematically with the coming and going of periodic ice ages and warm periods over the last 150,000 years. This demonstrates a relationship between these gases and climate change which predates significant human intervention in the atmosphere. The human contribution to greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution has created higher concentrations of CO2 and methane than at any other time in the past 420,000 years. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is higher than it has been for the last 20 million years. 9 Crowley 1996. Except where noted this is the source for the whole section. Natural Climate Fluctuations on http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture . 11 Past Climate Variation over New Zealand on http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture/Past_Climate.htm 12 Soon et. al 1999, p. 151. 10 64 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The Cretaceous (Age of Dinosaurs) and Cambrian Periods • About 100 million years ago, the mean global temperature may have been as much as 6° to 8°C warmer than it is today. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere then is thought to have been about three times what it is today, and roughly equivalent to the current “fossil fuel reservoir.“ In other words, the “carbon sinks” in ancient forests and swamps converted over time into coal, oil and natural gas are now being released by human intervention back into the atmosphere. It is estimated that a doubling of current CO2 emission levels will result from the consumption of about 20% of the theoretical fossil fuel reserves, and that at current emission rates we could theoretically return to a Cretaceous type climate (i.e. 6° to 8°C warmer) in AD 2400-2700.13 About 500 to 550 million years ago, there was a peak in CO2 estimated to have been three times that of the Cretaceous Period. After this, trees evolved, and one theory suggests that over time their absorption of huge amounts of CO2 precipitated a major ice age.14 6.5 Climate changes in Australia and New Zealand over the last 140 years Consistent with other parts of the world, temperatures and sea level in New Zealand and Australia have increased over the last century. These and other related changes are summarised in Table 6.4. Table 6.4: Climate change effects observed over the last century in New Zealand and Australia. Parameter Temperature - mean - maximums & minimums - diurnal range - oceans Rainfall Sea level Storms Atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases Observed change over last century Risen 0.5°C to 0.9°C since 1900. Large ranges between decades (presumed natural origin), with average rise of 0.1°C per decade (New Zealand, 0.11°C). Largest increases have been since about 1950. Highest recorded temperatures ever in the last decade. Frequency of very warm days increased. Frequency of very cold nights decreased. Night time temperatures have risen faster than day time temperatures, and the difference between them has decreased by up to 1°C over the last 40 years. This appears to be connected to increased cloud cover (e.g. 5% increase in cloud cover since 1910 in Australia, with largest changes in spring). Water temperature generally rising. Rainfall is very variable from place to place, and changes correlate with cyclical El Niño events. A regional trend is not clear. Over large areas of Australia, increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls and average rainfall recorded, with larger increases in the summer half-year. Over the last 50-100 years, risen on average by about 20 mm per decade (complicated by changes in land elevation due to geotectonic forces in some areas, slow land uplift and redistribution of ocean currents since the last ice age, and regional sea level variations). Data not conclusive, especially for non-tropical (mid-latitude) storms. More tropical cyclones reported over last few decades north of New Zealand, but improved accuracy of data raises doubts about comparison with earlier years. In Australia between 1969/70 and 1995/96, the total number of cyclones decreased but their intensity and duration increased. CO2 concentration 30% higher than in pre-industrial times, and increasing by about 0.4% each year. Measurements of methane (since 1989 at Baring Head, New Zealand) and nitrous oxide (since 1995 at Baring Head, and since late 1970s in Australia) show a steady increase in concentration. The diurnal temperature range is the difference between night time and day time temperatures. Source: Basher and Pittock 1998, section 4.2.2; http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture/Gases.htm ; A. Reisinger, Ministry for the Environment and B. Mullan NIWA, pers. comm. 7/2001. 13 Note, however, that the fossil record of the tropical climate and biota during this period does not relate to exactly the same locations on Earth as at present. For example, during the Cretaceous period New Zealand did not exist and Antarctica was not at the southern pole. 14 New Scientist 16/6/01, pp. 30-33, The Kingdoms of Gaia. 65 The greenhouse effect and climate change 6.6 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Climate change projections for New Zealand15 The IPCC has concluded that the current global climate models provide useful projections at the global and continental scale, but allow for little confidence at smaller scales. Reasons include: • • • the resolution of global climate change models and data sets is often not fine enough to reflect local weather conditions; the climate models cannot yet accurately predict the El Niño - Southern Oscillation phenomenon, which has a major influence on the climate of the Australasian region; and, knowledge about the sensitivities of natural and managed agricultural systems to climate change is limited. Projections for regions (e.g. Australia and New Zealand combined) are generally much less certain than global projections, and different climate models tend to show greater differences in their regional results than on global scales. To create regional and local climate projections, scientists use global climate models and a technique called “downscaling”. The historical correlation between local weather patterns and large-scale regional climate patterns is applied to global models simulations to make projections for the future. Agreement among scientists can be reached on the likelihood of some local climate features but not others, so that it is better to use a range of plausible projections in decision-making. In 1992 (for Australia) and in 1994 (for New Zealand), scenarios were published which were used for local projections in many subsequent publications. These models employed the best global models and scenarios available at the time, but used an “equilibrium” level of greenhouse gases at a future date and a static ocean model. The more recent models use “transient” levels of the greenhouse gases (modelling changes as they occur) and a dynamic ocean model, and produce projections with some different aspects than the earlier models (Table 6.5). The latest projections for temperature and rainfall change in New Zealand are presented in Figure 6.3. They are an average of downscaling of four global climate models for the New Zealand situation.16 It is important to note in addition to these mean values that a significant increase in the risk of extreme rainfall events (floods or droughts) is also predicted. Projections for sea-level rise in New Zealand vary from international rates due to “glacial isostatic rebound”: the land area is still rising about 4 cm a century as an after-effect of the removal of glacial ice sheets from the last ice age. The most recent projections for New Zealand are sea-level rises of 3 cm to 25 cm in 2050 (worst case scenario 30 cm) and 9 cm to 66 cm in 2100 (worst case scenario 84 cm).17 Likely local impacts are summarised in chapter 7. More detail is available in the recent report Climate Change Impacts in New Zealand, published by the Ministry for the Environment in mid July 2001.18 15 Unless otherwise noted, the main sources for this section are Basher and Pittock 1998, and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research website http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture . The four models are from the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (model CSIRO9), UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction (model HadCM2), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling (model CCC), and Japanese Centre for Climate Research (model CCSR). The emissions scenario used was IS92a, roughly equivalent to SRES scenario A1. The changes can also scale up or down, according to a more or less extreme emission scenario than that used by the four global models. 17 Ministry for the Environment 2001, p. 14 (see next footnote). 18 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b. Available from http://www.climatechange.govt.nz , or http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/ImpactsReport.pdf (full version) and http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/ImpactsReport-ExecutiveSummary.pdf (Executive Summary). A published version is also available from the Ministry for the Environment. 16 66 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 6.5: Climate element Current climate change projections for New Zealand; prevailing winds, temperature, rainfall, sea-level, and heating energy demand Projections for 2030 and 2070 to 2099 average of four “transient” models with interaction with deep ocean currents Scenario 1: Scenario 2: no action taken to reduce emissions emissions reduced Prevailing winds Temperature Rainfall/ precipitation Parliamentary Library, August 2001 increased strength of mid-latitude westerly winds For the year 2030 Approximately half that for the year 2070. For the years 2070 to 2099, compared to 1970-1999 Northland & Auckland 1.0°C to +2.8°C Western North Island, Waikato to Wellington +0.8°C to +2.7°C Eastern North Island, Bay of Plenty to Wairarapa +0.9°C to +2.7°C Nelson, Marlborough, to coastal Canterbury & Otago +0.8°C to +2.5°C West Coast and Canterbury foothills +0.6°C to +2.5°C Southland and inland Otago -0.6°C to +2.2°C For the year 2030 Approximately half that for the year 2070 For the years 2070 to 2099, compared to 1970-1999 Northland & Auckland -10% to 0% Western North Island, Waikato to Wellington 0% to +20% Eastern North Island, Bay of Plenty to Wairarapa -20% to 0% Nelson, Marlborough, to coastal Canterbury & Otago -20% to +5% West Coast and Canterbury foothills +5% to +25% Southland and inland Otago 0% to +30% about two-thirds the impact about two-thirds the impact + increased risk of extreme events (drought and flood) Sea-level Reduction in energy demand for heating 2050 13 cm (range 3-25 cm) 2050 2100 34 cm (range 9-66 cm) 2100 Auckland Wellington Christchurch Invercargill 2030 - 12-70% - 25-33% - 4-14% - 12-19% 2070 - 69-79% - 29-86% - 9-62% - 15-51% overheating in some areas would also add to increased air-conditioning 12 cm (range 3-24 cm) 25 cm (range 5-49 cm) about two-thirds the impact Source: Basher and Pittock 1998, section 4.2.3; A. B. Mullan, NIWA, pers. comm.; Ministry for the Environment 2001b, pp. 11, 16, 26. Scenario 1 assumes a target atmospheric concentration of CO2 of 700 ppm, and Scenario 2 assumes 500 ppm. Further discussion of scenarios in sections 6.3 and 8.1 67 The greenhouse effect and climate change 6.7 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon19 The IPCC projection for the Australasian region is for increased El Niño-like conditions and/or exacerbation of El Niño conditions (greater rates of drying, risk of drought and heavy rainfall leading to flooding) when they do occur. There is still scientific debate on whether climate change would lead to long-term changes in El Niño frequency or intensity. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural cyclical phenomenon in the Southern Hemisphere which markedly affects global climate. The names La Niña and El Niño are colloquial terms for its alternating mild and harsh effects seen along the west coast of South America. Scientific understanding of the ENSO has developed over the last 30 years, and its effects can be traced back through historical records over hundreds of years. The ENSO phenomenon is now monitored by the difference between air pressure in Tahiti and Darwin, termed the Southern Oscillation Index. El Niños tend to occur every three to seven years, and last for about a year each time, although there was a long-running El Niño over 1991-1995. There are also changes over multiple decades: for example, the El Niño signal in global climate anomalies was weak between the two World Wars, but has been strong since 1950, and there has been a higher frequency of El Niños over the last two decades. This is now believed to be caused by another naturally recurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, which has alternating cold and warm periods in cycles of 20 to 30 years. During an El Niño, the westerly trade winds in the Pacific Ocean weaken, leading to a rise in sea-surface temperature, the reduction in nutrient-rich seawater upwelling off South America and subsequent loss of fisheries, heavy rainfall and flooding in Peru, drought over Australia and Indonesia, and more cyclones in areas such as the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. The 1997-98 El Niño contributed to drought and uncontrolled forest fires in Indonesia, Venezuela, French Guyana, Brazil, and New South Wales; severe drought and food shortages in Papua New Guinea, and severe flooding in Ecuador, Peru and Chile. Effects were also felt in the southern and western USA, Canada, and eastern Africa. In New Zealand during an El Niño, stronger and more frequent winds come from the west in the summer, resulting in more rain in western areas and more drought in the east coast. In winter, winds are mostly from the south, resulting in colder conditions; and in the spring and autumn, southwesterlies increase, resulting in a mix of summer and winter conditions. Although the ENSO is estimated to account for only 25% of annual variance in rainfall and temperature, and east coast droughts can also happen at other times, the probability of climate variations is strong enough to warrant planning for them when an El Niño is predicted or in progress. 19 El Nino and Forecasting Seasonal Climate and Global Climate Models on http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture ; Basher 1998 The 1997/98 El Nino Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand on http://www.morst.govt.nz/publications/elnino/index.htm 68 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 6.3: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Projected changes to temperature and rainfall for New Zealand, 1980s to 2080s. Averages from four AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Model) results for predicted mean temperature increase (°C, top maps) and rainfall change (% - bottom maps) for New Zealand over the next 100 years (1980s to 2080s). On the left is summer (December, January, February) and on the right is winter (June, July, August). National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) http://katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture/Scenarios.htm (“1980s” = the period 1970 -1999, “2080s” = the period 2070 - 2099) 69 7 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability 7.1 Summary of IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group Two The IPCC’s January 2001 report on the scientific basis for climate change was followed in February by a report on implications for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability of human communities and natural ecosystems. The conclusions are summarised below. • Recent regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases, have already affected many physical and biological systems. Observed changes include shrinking of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, and earlier ice break-up on water bodies; longer growing seasons; poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges and decline in some plant and animal populations; and earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects, and egg-laying by birds. • There are preliminary indications that some human systems have been affected by recent increases in floods and droughts. However, as these systems are also affected by socioeconomic factors such as demographic shifts and land-use changes, the effects of climate change are difficult to quantify. • Natural systems are vulnerable to climate change, and some will be irreversibly damaged. Vulnerable natural systems with limited adaptive capacity include coral reefs and atolls, mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, polar and alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands and remnant native grasslands. Climate change is expected to increase risks for species already in danger of extinction. • Many human systems are sensitive to climate change, and some are vulnerable. Sensitive human systems include water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, human settlements, energy supply, industry, insurance and financial services, and human health. A third of the world’s population live in water-stressed areas, many of which are at risk of reduced rainfall with the projected climate change.1 • Projected changes in climate extremes could have major consequences. Extreme events such as floods, heat waves, avalanches and windstorms are projected to increase in frequency, while extreme low temperature events are expected to decrease. • The potential for large-scale and possibly irreversible impacts poses risks that have yet to be reliably quantified. Events of possibly low probability but potentially large consequences which are not yet adequately understood include slowing of the North Atlantic ocean circulation systems (reduction in warming of parts of Europe), major reduction of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (greater sea-level rise), and increased release of greenhouse gases from permafrost and coastal sediments (accelerated warming). • Adaptation is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Impediments to achieving the full measure of adaptation include decisions based on short-term considerations, continued development of risk-prone areas, insufficient information, and over-reliance on insurance mechanisms. • Those with the fewest resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable. The impacts are expected to fall disproportionately on the poorest people. Human systems can best deal with the consequences of climate change if they have the necessary wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, and resources. Present disparities in well-being are expected to increase with disproportionate impacts of climate change. Global aggregate estimates of the costs and benefits of climate change misrepresent this effect by treating gains for some as canceling out losses for others. 1 Approximately 1.7 billion people live in “water stressed” areas (indicator: where more than 20% of the renewable water supply is used). With population growth this is projected to increase to 5 billion people by 2025 (IPCC 2001b, p.7). The greenhouse effect and climate change • Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhancement of equity can be mutually reinforcing. Population growth, resource depletion, and poverty need to be addressed together with the likely impacts from climate change. The projected impacts of climate change will have positive and negative effects in different parts of the world (Table 7.1). However, summaries of such impacts can be misleading if they average out positives and negatives on a global scale without acknowledging the extreme impacts that some local communities could experience. Table 7.1: Summary of some projected negative and positive impacts of climate change. area of impact water supply projected impacts negative positive less in many water-scarce regions more in some areas (particularly subtropics), monsoon (e.g. Southeast Asia) areas greater extremes of dry & wet and some floodplain aquifers recharged food supply less in most mid-latitude, tropical and subtropical regions (more disease, heat shock, drought, flood) more in some mid-latitude regions (longer growing season) human health greater risk of vector- and waterborne diseases, heat-stress mortality, increased risk from flooding (rainfall and sea-level rise), storm events less winter mortality (mid- and high- latitudes) energy more demand for cooling, reduced reliability of energy supply, less hydropower in drought areas less demand for heating forestry increased risk of forest fire more timber (if appropriately managed) Source: IPCC 2001b, pp. 4, 16. More detail of the IPCC conclusions and their confidence levels are provided in Table 7.2 for the global scale. Keeping in mind the many remaining uncertainties, some conclusions about possible and likely outcomes in various regions have also been made by the IPCC. Regional projections for Australia, New Zealand and small island states (in the Pacific and elsewhere) are summarised in Table 7.3, with the estimated level of confidence if reported. Small island states are among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. In the Pacific region, the countries of lowest elevation are expected to suffer “profound” impacts as the sea level rises, including the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu and Kiribati. “Severe impacts” resulting in major population displacement are projected for Micronesia, Nauru, and Tonga. “Moderate to severe” impacts are projected for Fiji and the Solomon Islands, and “local severe to catastrophic” effects are projected for Vanuatu and Western Samoa.2 Projections of key impacts for New Zealand are summarised in section 7.2. 2 IPCC, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, on http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/258.htm 72 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 7.2: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Global scale projections of the IPCC relating to climate change impacts and vulnerability. IPCC projections Ecosystems Human health Water resources Plant growth and food supply Climate change will cause significant disruption to ecosystems. Habitat for cold/cool water fishes will decrease, and habitat for warm water fishes will increase. Future sea-surface warming will increase stress on coral reefs and increase the frequency of marine diseases. The ability of at-risk species to adapt to changing habitat boundaries will be limited by human destruction and fragmentation of habitats. Some “critically endangered” species will become extinct, and most of those “endangered or vulnerable” will become rarer and closer to extinction. The response of species and ecosystems to climate change will lag behind by a few to many years. The geographic range of potential transmission of malaria and dengue-two vector-borne infections will increase. This currently affects 40-60% of the world population. The impact of increased heat waves and heat-related death and illness, often exacerbated by higher humidity and urban air pollution, will be greatest for urban populations, the elderly, the sick, and those without access to air-conditioning. Increases in flooding will increase the risk of drowning, diarrhoeal and respiratory diseases; and in developing countries, hunger and malnutrition. In developed temperate zone countries, net temperature-related deaths will decrease (more summer deaths but fewer winter deaths) (Little published research on other countries). confidence level 67-95% 67-95% 67-95% 67-95% 67-95% 33-95% 67-95% 67-95% 33-67% Annual mean streamflow will increase in high latitudes and in SE Asia, and will decrease in central Asia, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and Australia. 33-67% An increased concentration of CO2 can stimulate crop growth and yield, but that may not always overcome adverse effects from heat and drought. Field trials show smaller gains than pot trials. Increased heat stress to livestock in some areas. In mid-latitude areas, temperature increases of less than a few °C will result in generally positive crop effects, and increases over a few °C will result in generally negative crop effects. In tropical areas, crop yields would generally decrease with even a few °C increase (some crops are already 33-67% 67-95% 6-67% 6-33% near their maximum temperature tolerance, and dryland/rainfed agriculture predominates). Climate change impacts will cause small percentage changes in global agricultural income, with increases in developed regions and increases or declines in developing regions. Climate change will worsen food security in Africa, mainly through increased extremes and temporal/spatial shifts of climate. Human settlements Economic impacts Insurance & finance established (current trends) Communities on the coast and near rivers, and in urban areas with inadequate storm drains, water supply and waste management, are at highest risk from increases in flooding. Communities with little economic diversification and heavy reliance on climate-sensitive primary production are more vulnerable to climate change. Developed areas in the Arctic and where permafrost is ice-rich will need special works to mitigate thawing damage to buildings and transport infrastructure. Increased rainfall will increase floods, landslides, mudslides, and soil erosion, thus putting pressure on insurance and disaster relief systems in some areas. 67-95% Disproportionate impacts from climate change on the poor will increase income disparities. Economic losses and GDP reductions will be greater for higher magnitudes of warming. Global timber supply will increase, enhancing the rising market share in developing countries. For all warming magnitudes, there will be net economic losses for developing countries. For increases up to a few °C, there will both economic gains and losses in developed countries. Aggregated on a global scale, GDP would change ± a few percent for global mean temperature increases up to a few °C. Some tourist destinations will shift (losses and gains felt in different areas). More people will be harmed than benefited by climate change, even for low levels of warming. 33-67% 33-67% 33-67% Actuarial uncertainty in risk assessment will increase, placing upward pressure on insurance premiums and/or lead to reclassification of some risks as uninsurable and withdrawal of coverage. 67-95% 95% + 67-95% 5-33% 5-33% 5-33% 67-95% 5-33% 67-95% Source: IPCC 2001b. Estimates of confidence used in the report were based on the collective judgement of the authors using observational evidence, modeling results, and theory they have examined. The range was: very high (95% or greater), high (67-95%), medium (33-67%), low (533%) and very low (5% or less). Those termed medium to high in the original are noted here as 33-95%, and medium to low are noted as 5-67%. 73 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 7.3: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Regional IPCC summary of adaptive capacity, vulnerability, and key concerns for Australia, New Zealand, and small island states (details in italics from IPCC background reports) IPCC conclusions and projections Adaptive capacity (human systems) Water resources Crops & fisheries Sea level Storms Ecosystems Tourism Australia and New Zealand Generally high, except for indigenous groups in some regions with low adaptive capacity and therefore high vulnerability. Small island states Generally low, and therefore high vulnerability. Likely to be among the countries most seriously impacted by climate change. Australia and New Zealand Likely to be a key issue due to projected drying trends over much of the region and change to a more El Niño-like average state. Vulnerability is high with respect to hydrology. Of most concern are drought-prone areas, flood-prone urban areas, low-lying islands, and alpine snowfields. New Zealand’s glaciers are likely to shrink further. Small island states Islands which currently have limited water supplies will be highly vulnerable. Australia and New Zealand The net impact on temperate crops may initially beneficial, but the balance is expected to become negative for some areas and crops with further climate change. Small island states Limited arable land and soil salinisation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to climate change. Impacts to coastal ecosystems will negatively impact reef fisheries and those who rely on them. Small island states The next 100 years will see enhanced coastal erosion, loss of land and property, dislocation of people, increased risk from storm surges, damage to coastal ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources; costs of responding and adapting to these changes will be high. Australia and New Zealand Intensity of heavy rains and tropical cyclones will increase, with consequent increased local risk of flooding, storm surges, and wind damage. Australia and New Zealand Some species with restricted climatic niches and which are unable to migrate due to fragmentation of the landscape, soil differences, or typography could become endangered or extinct. Vulnerable ecosystems include freshwater wetlands in coastal zones, areas vulnerable to accelerated invasion of weeds, arid, semi-arid, and alpine systems, and coral reefs. Knowledge of climate change impacts on aquatic and marine ecosystems is relatively limited. Aquatic systems will be affected by the disproportionately large responses in runoff, river flow and associated nutrients, wastes and sediments that are likely from changes in rainfall. Small island states Coral reefs, mangroves, sea grass beds, and other coastal ecosystems will be negatively affected, with implications for sustainability of the local economy. Australia and New Zealand Reduced snow amounts and a shorter snow season appear likely and would decrease the amenity value of the mountains and the viability of the ski industry. Small island states Tourism (an important source of revenue and foreign exchange for many islands) would face severe disruption from climate change, sea-level rise, and loss of coral reef resources. confidence level (based on present situation) 67-95% 67-95% 33-67% 67-95% 33-67% 67-95% 33-67% 67-95% 33-67% 67-95% Source for plain text summary and confidence level definitions as for Table 7.2 (pp. 2, 16-19 in IPCC 2001b). The predictions about small island states includes those in the Pacific as well as all others around the world, and therefore of necessity are very generalised. Additional key factors in italics from Basher and Pittock (eds) for Australia and New Zealand, and Nurse, McLean and Suarez (eds) for small island states, in IPCC1998. 74 The greenhouse effect and climate change 7.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Likely impacts in New Zealand Recently, the Ministry for the Environment published Climate Change Impacts in New Zealand. 3 The following text summarises the key predicted impacts from this report and from the IPCC background reports of 2001. 7.2.1 Agricultural production4 The impact of climate change on soil properties and plant growth are difficult to predict due to limited understanding of the complex interactions involved, and uncertainties about the exact nature of climate change at the local and regional scale. Research indicates that increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will alter the carbonnitrogen ratios of biomass, soil nutrients, and soil carbon. Increased CO2 (“carbon fertilisation”) can increase water-use efficiency in plants leading to higher productivity. However, this positive response to CO2 enrichment: • is limited by available soil nutrients and moisture; • is stronger for legumes and weedy species than for most grasses; • does not have much effect on older trees; • seems to decrease over the long-term; and, • plants grown under elevated CO2 conditions have less protein. In New Zealand, highest increases from carbon fertilisation are projected for cooler wetter areas, such as the southern South Island, and areas that are already warm and dry are expected to gain the least. By 2030, a 10-20% increase in annual pasture yield is projected for suitable sites. Other changes relating to rainfall, temperature, and storm events are likely to include the following. • • • • • • • • • • • • Reduced or increased availability of moisture in soils, depending on region. Increased risk of drought and flood, especially in areas already prone to such events. Increased risk of soil erosion, of concern in New Zealand’s deforested hill country. Increased risk of alkalisation and salinisation of soils where rainfall decreases and/or evaporation increases (possibly offset in part by increased CO2 levels). Increased rate of biochemical processes from elevated temperature and reduced frost losses in temperate areas, but increased desiccation and sun scald in warmer areas. Decreased winter stock losses in the New Zealand high country with warmer winters, but also decreased suitability of areas for crops that require winter chilling. Negative impacts for some crops and positive impacts for others, e.g. in eastern areas with increases in temperature and dryness. 5 Increased need for irrigation in some areas, possibly competing with other sectors for water supply. Increased incidence in some areas of land degradation, weeds and pests, and diseases. Increased risk of saltwater intrusion into groundwater aquifers in such areas as Hawke’s Bay and parts of Canterbury.6 Reduced water availability for irrigation of pipfruit growing areas in Hawkes Bay. Reduced suitability of the Bay of Plenty for growing kiwifruit due to loss of adequate winter chilling, from 2050 if current greenhouse gas emission rates continue.7 3 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b. Basher and Pittock 1998, sections 4.3.1.2, 4.3.3.1; New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, pp. 18-21. 5 For example during the 1997/98 El Niño, with increased dryness and warmth in eastern areas, unirrigated dryland farms grew 25% less grain of poor malting quality due to its nitrogen content being too high, and apple growers reported more problems with sunburn, overheating and lack of colour development in the fruit due to lack of cold nights. However, Hawkes Bay grape growers reported the best vintage in 15 years, smaller fruit and higher sugar content, and less need for chemical sprays (Basher 1998, p. 11-12). 6 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 16. 7 Competing kiwifruit growing areas in Italy and Chile may also become marginal with export market implications (New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 20). 4 75 The greenhouse effect and climate change • • • • Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Increased suitability of regions such as Marlborough, Canterbury and Central Otago for growing other fruit crops such as apples and kiwifruit, subject to availability of irrigation. Increased wheat productivity (10-15% by 2050) subject to adequate irrigation and nitrogen fertilisation. Further increase in subtropical “C4” pasture grasses, which are low quality and less desirable for livestock diets, but may also provide feed during dry periods when traditional forage plants die off.8 No increased pasture production from increased CO2 where the frequency of summer droughts also increases (e.g. in low elevation New Zealand sheep farming). Impacts will likely vary from district to district, from crop to crop, and from decade to decade. For example, in the first few decades of global warming, grain crops may benefit from higher CO2, but in later decades increased temperatures would reduce the grain-filling period. In addition, impacts are likely (possibly both positive and/or negative in different parts of the agricultural sector and in different decades) from significant changes to global food production and commodity prices, and the ability of other countries to produce goods required locally or purchase our exports. Changes in the suitability of districts for particular crops and farming systems could have major economic impacts unless anticipated and planned for early. The agricultural sector can theoretically prepare for these risks by dedicated breeding programmes (e.g. drought resistant forage species, high-quality subtropical grasses, pip and stone fruit that requires less winter chilling, biological pest control), water management schemes, and wider use of current drought resistant species. However, there is also a risk that adequate efforts may not be initiated until traditional techniques increasingly fail. 7.2.2 Indigenous species and ecosystems In the past indigenous species have adapted to natural climate changes, but the future rate of change may exceed any that the present biota have previously experienced. Perhaps more importantly, their ability to adapt will be restricted by considerable loss and fragmentation of habitat from urban and agricultural development, and competition and predation by introduced species. Slow-growing indigenous species (such as forest trees, high country tussock, and some fish species) may also be less able to adapt. The most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems are considered to be fragmented native forests of drier lowland environments in Northland, Waikato, Manawatu and in the east from East Cape to Southland. Studies on individual species is limited. A study of the likely climate change impact on kauri showed a decline in suitable habitat of 25% by 2050 and 65% by 2100 if the current greenhouse gas emissions rate continues.9 During the droughts of the 1997-98 El Niño, exceptional die-back of native vegetation was reported in eastern areas of both the North and South Islands. However, the warmer summer temperature was also expected to result in heavy masting (flowering, fruiting and seeding) in wetter areas, to the benefit of breeding of native birds (as well as increases in the predator population) the following spring and summer. With climate change the natural fluctuation between rodents, predator numbers, and native bird species may be intensified. 10 8 The occurrence of the subtropical grass Paspalum dilatatum has already spread southward by 1.5º latitude (spreading from midWaikato/East Cape to Wanganui/Cape Kidnappers) during a period of increasing temperatures 1976-1988. (New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 18). 9 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, pp. 24-25. 10 Basher 1998, p. 15. After prey species populations increase, predator numbers naturally increase after a lag period. The decline in predator numbers also lags after the decline in prey, and as the predators run out of rodents to prey on they are likely to increase their predation on native birds. 76 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 7.2.3 Freshwater and marine ecosystems Knowledge of the response of freshwater and marine ecosystems to climate change is not exact enough to allow confident prediction of effects. It is thought that increased flooding will affect water quality, rising sea-level will affect estuaries, changes in temperature will affect spawning, and changes in ocean currents will affect marine nutrient upwelling, food networks, reproductive patterns and species ranges. Whether on balance these are positive or negative is not yet known. Warmer seawater may encourage the spread of toxic algal blooms, but the influence of other factors is not fully understood. 7.2.4 Health Warmer weather is anticipated to create both positive and negative health effects. These include the following. • Reduced incidence of cold-related illness and death in winter. • Increased summer mortality (a Christchurch study found 1.3% increase for each 1ºC). • Reduced use of open fires for heating, resulting in less winter air pollution. • Increased summer smog, particularly in Auckland. • Establishment risk for mosquito populations capable of transmitting infections such as Ross River virus and dengue fever, but not malaria (by 2100, possibly including Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and coastal Manawatu).11 Increased variability of rainfall (droughts and floods) may also contribute to health effects. • Spread of diseases transmitted between animals and humans, such as cryptosporidiosis, from heavy rainfall events washing animal wastes into water supplies. • Poorer water quality during drought periods in areas where water supplies struggle to meet demand. In addition, the impact of increasing levels of greenhouse gases on the recovery of the ozone layer (section 4.5) is likely to mean 15 to 20 years more of elevated skin cancer risk due to exposure to high levels of ultraviolet light. As with current health problems, these risks are likely to be borne disproportionately by people of lower socio-economic status with limited resources to prevent illness and seek treatment. 7.2.5 Impacts on Mäori communities12 The IPCC has concluded that communities with limited resources will have limited ability to make the necessary adaptations to the impacts from climate change. Low income families and communities in New Zealand, which are at the present time disproportionately Mäori, may therefore suffer greater impacts. The reliance of Mäori on the environment as both a spiritual and an economic resource also makes them more vulnerable and less adaptable to climate change. Mäori-owned land in some areas is of lower-than-average quality and may be more prone to erosion and invasion by subtropical grasses.13 Land ownership structures and spiritual and cultural links to the land are likely to make it harder for Mäori to consider relocating or making major changes to land use. Climate change impacts on indigenous species of traditional and cultural importance to Mäori would in turn impact on Mäori people and communities. 11 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, pp. 28-30. Sources for this section include Ministry for the Environment (unpublished materials), New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 31 (which was compiled with the help of Te Puni Kökiri and others). 13 Particularly drier and less productive areas such as Northland and the East Cape (New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 31). 12 77 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Mäori see the world as a unified whole, where all elements including tängata whenua are genealogically connected. Climate change affects the balance between living things (utu), and is seen as a depletion of the Earth’s life force (mauri). Restoring the natural balance from a Mäori perspective is not only a question of physical and economic benefit, but also of spiritual value. The Ministry for the Environment has involved Mäori in climate change issues discussions since 1990, and in 2000 completed a round of 10 nationwide hui, the results of which will feed into consultations planned for 2001-2002.14 7.2.6 Hydro-electricity generation Reduced snowfall would reduce the risk of spring floods, and smooth seasonal differences in hydro-electricity generation. However, with more frequent extreme rainfalls also predicted, dams will need to be managed conservatively to avoid overtopping during floods and running out of water during droughts. In addition, increased sediment load would accelerate the reduction of hydro-dam storage capacity.15 With higher temperatures, there would be less demand for electricity for winter warming, possibly about 6% with continuation of current greenhouse gas emission trends. However, there could also be higher demand for electricity in summer for air-conditioning.16 7.2.7 Tourism Global warming is likely to lead to reduced snowfall, higher snowlines, earlier spring snowmelt, a shorter snow season in Australia and New Zealand, and further retreat of the glaciers in New Zealand. It has been estimated that even with a 10% increase in precipitation, a 2°C warming from global climate change would cause a reduction of 20% in snow cover on the Southern Alps.17 The climate change impacts in the Australian skifield areas are predicted to occur earlier than in New Zealand, so there may be a short-term gain for New Zealand if skiers visit here instead. However, in the long term, there is likely to be a loss of amenity value of mountain landscapes for locals and tourists threatening the viability of the ski industry, which has limited options for relocation. If skifield operators resort to artificial snowmaking, this may have implications for the use of local water and its availability for other purposes. 7.2.8 International links Pacific Island countries are particularly vulnerable to aspects of climate change such as sealevel rise and increased risk of tropical storm events. Measures under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol are aimed at limiting the rise in greenhouse gas emissions and at providing assistance to developing countries, including small island states, in order to address the adverse effects of climate change. If significant disruption occurs for Pacific Island and other communities, there could be an increased need for development aid, disaster relief, and numbers of refugees forced to permanently leave their homes. As a nearby country with better resources to cope with the impacts of climate change, New Zealand may be subject to increased aid and immigration pressure. 14 http://www.mfe.govt.nz/new/athague.htm IPCC 1996, WG II, Section 14.3.3, cited in Basher and Pittock 1998, section. 4.3.2.3. It is also worth noting that during the 1992 El Niño there was an electricity crisis, but during the 1997-98 El Niño the increased westerly rains spilled over to the eastern side of the Divide, and the Tekapo, Pukaki, Hawea, Te Anau, and Manapouri hydro-electric storage dams were full to spilling (Basher 1998, p. 14). 16 New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 27. 17 IPCC 1996, WG II, Section 7.4.1, cited in Basher and Pittock 1998, section. 4.3.2.3 15 78 Part D: Options for action 8 Overview: targets and principles 8.1 What is the target? The ultimate UNFCCC objective is “stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.” In the absence of agreement on what that level might be, an arbitrary target of a return to 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels by the year 2000 for the Annex I countries was agreed to. It was not met. The current Kyoto Protocol target is for at least 5% reduction on 1990 greenhouse gas emission levels over the first commitment period of 2008-2012, for most of the Annex I countries. This is also an arbitrary target, based on political reality rather than scientific data on the reduction target that would best prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Two scenarios used by organisations such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction (UK) and the New Zealand Climate Change Programme compare a projection of current emission trends without serious attempts to reduce emissions, and a future where the world explicitly aims to reduce emissions much more than required by the Kyoto Protocol. Even this latter scenario would result in some significant climate change (Table 8.1). Unlike the Kyoto Protocol target, these scenarios are based on greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere rather than estimated emissions. They do not include all of the greenhouse gases, only CO2 (which has the best emissions database globally, for UNFCCC Annex I countries as well as the rest of the world). A 550 parts per million (ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentration target requires about a 30% cut in the current rate of emissions, and for some countries a cut of up to 70%. In contrast, the Kyoto Protocol requires a cut in projected emissions in 2012 of about 10% overall and up to 30% for some industrialised countries.1 Emission rates are projected to continue to rise and emissions in 2012 are expected to be higher than at present. The Kyoto Protocol, if ratified and actioned with its present targets, will result in levels higher than 500-550 ppm. For the “Contraction and Convergence” scenario (see section 1.8), the Global Commons Institute proposes that to ensure the survival of current ecosystems and avoid accelerating feedbacks in the climate system, a target of ideally 350 ppm but no more than 450 ppm is required. The Institute has suggested a target year of 2050 or 2100.2 While agreement may be reached that “business as usual” is very likely to lead to serious climate impacts over the long term, and therefore adjustments need to be made, there remains no agreed “right answer” for greenhouse gas reduction targets. The scientists can provide best estimates and projections, but the risk management decision will be political. 1 2 UNEP 1998; New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, p. 8.. http://www.gci.org , The Detailed Ideas and Algorithms Behind Contraction and Convergence. The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 8.1: Atmospheric CO2 stabilisation scenarios ppmv CO2 ~280 368 450 550 about twice preindustrial levels of CO2 scenario description and climate change projections pre-industrial level 2000 level stabilising below 1990 emission levels within a few decades Assumes the world explicitly aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Current emission rates need to fall by 30% to stabilise at this level over the long term. In 2100, global emissions would need to be lower than 1990 and decrease even further into the future despite increased world population and energy demand. Global projections Temperature rise begins to slow and stabilise around 2100, 1.4 to 2.6°C higher. The rise of 2°C predicted for 2050 with unmitigated emissions would be delayed by 100 years. Temperature by 2230s: 2°C higher than today. The sea level rise of 40 cm predicted for the 2080s with unmitigated emissions would be delayed by about 40 years. Sea level by 2100 to rise by 13 to 70 cm. Dieback of tropical forests and loss of carbon sinks substantially reduced by the 2230s. Number of people suffering from drought induced by climate change in the 2080s: about one billion. New Zealand projections Temperature and rainfall changes about 2/3 of those described below. Sea level rises about 12 cm by 2050, and 25 cm by 2100. 650 700 to 750 about three times preindustrial levels of CO2 stabilising below 1990 emission levels within about 100 years Assumes no explicit attempt to control emissions. The future development scenario includes rapid economic growth, increased technological exchange and capacity building, substantial reductions in regional per capita income differences, and a mix of fossil fuels and alternative energy sources. Global projections: based on 750 ppm Temperature rise begins to slow and stabilise around 2200, 2.1 to 3.82°C higher.. The rise of 2°C predicted by 2050 with unmitigated emissions would be delayed by 50 years. Temperature by 2230s: 3°C higher than today. The sea level rise of 40 cm predicted for the 2080s with unmitigated emissions would be delayed by about 25 years. Dieback of tropical forests and loss of carbon sinks delayed by 100 years but significant losses still occur. Number of people suffering from drought induced by climate change in the 2080s: about three billion. New Zealand projections, based on about 700 ppmv By 2100 temperature increases 0.6 to 2.8°C depending on the region. Rainfall decreases up to 20% in eastern regions and Nelson/Marlborough, and increases up to 20-30% in western regions, Southland, and inland Otago, Sea level rises about 13 cm by 2050 and 34 cm by 2100. 1000 stabilising below 1990 emission levels within a few centuries ppmv = parts per million by volume: concentration in the atmosphere (also expressed as ppm) Global projections: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction 1999 New Zealand projections: New Zealand Climate Change Programme 2001b, pp. 7-8, 11, 14. 2000 level: http://cdiac.esd.ornl-gov/pns/current_ghg.html 450, 650 and 1000 ppmv levels: IPCC 2001a, p.12. 80 The greenhouse effect and climate change 8.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Primary focus on energy Carbon dioxide makes up the largest part of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. The majority of this comes from the energy sector, largely through the consumption of fossil fuels for transport, electricity, and industrial processes (Table 8.2). Table 8.2: Share of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, Annex I countries, 1998. A Greenhouse gas emissions B Contribution from energy sector C Share of total greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector (AxB) CO2 82% CH4 12% N2O 4% Others 2% 96% 35% 26% data not available 79% 4% 1% Totals 100% 84% Source: UNFCCC 1998, Second compilation and synthesis of second national communications, reported in International Energy Agency 2000, p. 14. Therefore, in order to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, initiatives are needed to effectively target the energy sector. Global energy use has increased nearly 70% over the last three decades and is predicted to rise more than 2% per year over the next 15 years. If unchecked, this will raise greenhouse gas emissions about 50% above current levels.3 While New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions are mostly in the form of CH4 and N2O rather than CO2, the technology for reducing of CH4 and N2O emissions without reducing agricultural production is not very well advanced. Therefore, in the foreseeable future New Zealand’s greenhouse gas reduction efforts will still need to focus on CO2 emissions, primarily from fossil fuel energy, and creation of CO2 sinks, primarily through new forest plantings. 8.3 “Good practice” policies In order to work, policies must be accepted by communities and be seen to be fair and effective. The International Energy Agency has suggested that “good practice” policies will meet the following criteria: 8.4 maximise both economic efficiency and environmental protection (both in terms of climate change and other environmental issues); be politically feasible; minimise red tape and overheads; and, have positive feedback effects in such areas as competition, trade and social welfare (or at least not conflict with policies in those areas).4 The global commons Like most environmental problems, anthropogenic climate change has emerged from a syndrome called “the tragedy of the commons”. • The global atmosphere belongs to everyone, and thus no one and no country has been responsible for protecting it from abuse. • Each individual or industry freely uses the common resource, focusing only on their own needs and the immediate effects which can be attributed to their own actions, although the 3 4 A. Reisinger, Ministry for the Environment, unpublished papers 2001. IEA 2000, p.24. 81 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 effect on the global atmosphere, which will affect everyone to some extent, is the result of cumulative actions of everyone over the long term. The atmosphere is considered to be “free”, and so “rational” economic decisions tend to ignore climate change implications. • Effective solutions, both global and local, must instil individual and corporate incentives and responsibility for the ensuring health of the global commons. 8.5 Leadership and assistance from developed countries The majority of greenhouse gas emissions over the last 150 years have been from the developed countries, and they continue to the primary source (see Figures 1.1 to 1.3, and 4.6). These countries are also in a better position to afford changes in technology to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Even with continuing growth, per capita energy use and emissions in developing countries are still likely to be much lower than in developed countries over the next 30 years.1 The latest Kyoto Protocol agreement in Bonn continues to reflect the understanding that developed countries need to take the lead and financially assist the developed countries to both adopt greenhouse-friendly technology and cope with climate changes (see section 1.6). 8.6 Embeddedness of issues and the “no regrets” approach Many of the changes that could significantly reduce the emission of greenhouse gases have other benefits. For example: more efficient energy systems; cleaner vehicles; reduced air pollution and pollution related illness; better public transport; the development of renewable technologies; more comfortable homes; reduced reliance on imported and non-renewable fuels; improved efficiency in production, healthier soil and sustainable agriculture; protection of biodiversity; new employment opportunities; and sustainable economies.5 Climate change is also embedded in issues of development. The people most vulnerable to climate change are those who, for socio-economic and geo-political reasons, are reliant on vulnerable ecosystems and do not have the ability to find or pay for alternatives (Chapter 7). Empowering people to develop sustainable economies, through such means as assisting with local industry development, transferring renewable energy technology, assisting with population control, and addressing desertification, deforestation and overgrazing, can improve their quality of life, avoid development along a path that contributes high levels of greenhouse gas emissions, and help them more easily cope with the climate change effects that do occur. When the social and economic impact of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are analysed, it is important to account for all of the costs and benefits, both direct and indirect, both new and avoided. A “no regrets” policy is one that has other benefits besides reducing the risk of climate change and is therefore worth doing anyway, even if predictions of climate change prove to be inaccurate. The classic example is energy efficiency, which can save money over the medium to long term as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and has been a key focus area of the New Zealand policy response. 5 OECD 2000; IPCC 2001d, pp. 19-21; P. Bunyard 2001, Where now for the world’s climate?, The Ecologist 31(1):54. 82 9 National and international initiatives 9.1 Addressing “market failure” “Market failure” is a syndrome common to most environmental issues. In the economic decisions that people and industry make, use of the global atmosphere is “free”. Its good health or otherwise is not valued in economic terms, and thus “rational” economic decisions tend to ignore climate change implications. This market distortion is compounded by such things as subsidies for fossil fuels and barriers such as lack of information on energy-efficient or alternative sources of energy. “Economic instruments”1 are considered by their proponents be the most efficient and low cost way to address climate change. Rather than force people to take a particular action to reduce emissions, economic instruments are designed to create a financial incentive and allow people to choose the technology and method that best suits their circumstances. Studies by the OECD (including the International Energy Agency) support the removal of fossil fuel subsidies, targeted tax changes, and emissions trading as ways to encourage markets to reduce CO2 emissions at lowest cost. Theoretical analysis suggests that emissions trading will also be a sound method for cost-effective reduction of greenhouse emissions.2 If the Kyoto Protocol is successfully ratified and the first round of Annex I country commitments come into force in 2008, a market value will be placed on greenhouse gas emissions. Countries will need to keep emissions within their assigned amount, and will tend to choose the least expensive method. This may be buying carbon sink credits, reducing emissions at source, or paying for emission reductions in other countries where it is cheaper to do so. Some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe where economies have contracted since 1990, will have surplus assigned amount to sell. Proposals to increase the value of the global atmosphere in the market include the following: Tax policies: making emissions cost more • • • Emission taxes (at point of emission) Product charges or taxes (e.g. a carbon charge) Tax credits or reductions for climate-friendly alternatives Trading: creating a market for reduced emissions • • • Trading in emission quotas and emission reduction credits Creating markets for “green energy” Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation Other fiscal measures • • Removal of fossil fuel subsidies Financial support for improving energy efficiency and developing renewable energy sources. Information on these measures follows, after a discussion of market barriers. 1 I.e. techniques which try to harness the power of the market to make the desired changes. For environmental issues, this can include changing the way the market values key resources and creating new markets for the sustainable use of resources. 2 IEA 2000b, pp. 26, 33. The greenhouse effect and climate change 9.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Removing barriers to energy efficiency and renewable energy Reduction in energy use through energy efficiency and creation of energy from renewable sources can replace demand for fossil fuel energy and thus reduce greenhouse gas emissions. From an economic point of view, they will be worthwhile if their cost is less than the cost of the thermal energy they replace. From the wider point of view, there are many ancillary benefits (section 8.6). In addition to the generic pricing issue discussed in section 9.1, other barriers to the optimal uptake of energy efficiency and renewable energy have been identified. 3 The main types of barriers and some of the measures which have been designed to help overcome them are summarised below. No value placed on the public benefits Many of the environmental, health, and future generation benefits of renewable energy and energy conservation are not reflected in market prices, thus eliminating much of the incentive for consumers to switch to these technologies. Creating new price incentives, regulating renewables market share, and regulating standards of product energy efficiency are some of the ways that have been used elsewhere to address this barrier. Lack of information Many individual consumers are not aware of the potential energy savings or the environmental implications of their choices; which of a range of products or behaviours are less polluting, or where to get the best value for money. Labelling schemes and education programmes for example are designed to help overcome this barrier. Limited access to capital and rapid payback requirements Energy efficiency and renewable energy measures often require up-front capital investment in order to achieve long-term savings. Domestic and small business consumers in particular often have limited capital and prefer investments with shorter payback periods. Targeted grants and loans have been used to help overcome this barrier. Emerging technology Like all emerging technologies, renewables compete at a disadvantage against established industries. Disadvantages include lack of economies of scale and lack of infrastructure. Customers may find new products relatively difficult to obtain, or lack of familiarity may cause customers to view them as more risky purchases. Assisted capacity building for the industry, temporary financial support, publicity on products, and supplier information are some methods that address this barrier. Lack of responsibility/ spilt incentives Consumers who rent homes or offices often have no incentive to make structural improvements to improve energy efficiency and neither do landlords, as they do not usually pay the power bills (termed the “landlord-tenant dilemma”). Housing developers have little incentive to provide hidden benefits in a house such as insulation if a higher selling price does not result. Mandatory energy efficiency building codes and financial assistance via grants or loans targeted at energy efficiency retrofits for existing buildings have been used to help address this barrier. 3 Based on Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, pp. 48-49; IPCC 2001d, pp. 33-37; Union of Concerned Scientists 2000 http://www.ucsusa.org/energy/brief.barriers.html . 84 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Inappropriate price signals Electricity and gas tariffs often do not reflect the full marginal cost of production, particularly environmental costs not valued in the market such as climate change. Consumer prices do not fully reflect variation in costs between peak and off-peak periods, nor do they rise over time toward the marginal cost for constructing a new power station to reflect diminishing surplus capacity. While electricity reforms in New Zealand have made the market more competitive, companies continue to have a financial incentive to maximise energy consumption rather than market energy efficiency to their customers. Regulations requiring energy companies to provide energy efficiency and conservation services and tariff incentives for reduced use can be used to address this problem. Lack of rational decision-making Energy bills are often a small part of consumers’ overall budgets, and may not receive the attention required to maximise energy savings. Force of habit, the view of energy as a fixed overhead, and the perceived difficulty of making changes to one’s behaviour are important factors. Furthermore, rational choices cannot be made where the necessary information is not available. Public education campaigns are used as one way of addressing this situation. 9.3 Tax policies Taxes or charges are one way to partially levy emitters for the environmental cost of their emissions, and give them an incentive to find less damaging ways to conduct their business. Revenue can be retained by government to fund incentive programmes and offset the costs of meeting emission reduction commitments, and/or recycled back into the economy to offset economic impacts. In OECD countries, revenues from environmentally related taxes averaged 2.5% of GDP and around 7% of total tax revenues for 2000. Most of the OECD country “green taxes” apply to motor vehicles, energy products, or waste management. It has been estimated that a 1% increase in energy prices via taxes would in the long term reduce energy use by about 5%. 4 In 1999, 26 OECD countries were surveyed on their policy responses to climate change. A majority (73%) had proposed or implemented tax instruments to encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The most prevalent type was indirect rather than direct emission taxes. One-third of the tax initiatives related to transport and more than half addressed fossil fuels. There were also 11 carbon or emission taxes. More than half were not yet enacted at the time of the survey.5 New Zealand was one of the minority of OECD countries in this survey that did not seek to make use of tax instruments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in 1999. The others were Austria, Hungary, Spain, Sweden and Turkey. Among the OECD countries, New Zealand also has one of the lowest levels of tax on automotive fuels, resulting in relatively low fuel prices. Generally countries with higher petrol prices consume less per capita and therefore emit less greenhouse gas per capita. 6 4 OECD Observer, Summer 2000, p.120. The OECD “green taxes” database includes 170 taxes, 160 fees or charges, and over 850 exemptions and refund mechanisms, that levy charges on substances or activities that can have a negative environmental effect, regardless of the reasons behind implementation. It is considered that for example a tax on fossil fuels introduced for purely fiscal reasons will have the same environmental impact as one introduced to reduce pollution. For New Zealand, the database includes excise taxes on fuel, motor vehicle licence fees, and road user charges (http://www.oecd.org/env/policies/taxes/index.htm ). 5 IEA 2000b, pp. 26-32. 6 Parliamentary Library 2000, Petrol prices and taxes, pp. 2, 4. Available on the Parliamentary Intranet. 85 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 One issue usually raised about “green taxes” is their impact on consumer prices, industry, and economic competitiveness against other countries without similar taxes. Whether the taxes are additional or merely a reallocation of funds in the economy is a central consideration. A recent study predicting the effects of a “low level carbon charge” in New Zealand found that using the revenue to repay debt would cause a reduction in all measures of macroeconomic activity, but recycling the revenue through a reduction in GST or income tax would result in increases in output, consumption, and employment. All options would reduce CO2 emissions. Some industries would have reduced output (e.g. fossil fuels, cement, metals and electricity) and others increased output (e.g. agriculture, forestry, and related industries).7 The detailed information has been provided to the Tax Review 2001, which is due to report at the end of September 2001. Cabinet has decided that if as a result a decision were taken to proceed with a carbon charge, that it would not be implemented until after the next general election.8 A summary of the findings from the New Zealand carbon charge analysis is in Table 9.1. Most overseas studies have shown that the distributional effects of a carbon tax can have negative income effects on low-income groups unless the tax revenues are used directly or indirectly to compensate for such effects.9 Table 9.1: Brief summary of results from a 2001 analysis of a low level carbon charge for New Zealand, with and without revenue recycling Percent changes in variables CO2 emissions Options with a $30 per tonne carbon charge Revenue used to Revenue recycled Revenue recycled repay debt through reduction in through reduction in (not recycled) GST personal income tax - 3.2 % -2.79 % - 2.9 % Real consumption - 0.09 % + 0.45 % + 0.17% Investment - 0.04 % - 0.14 % + 0.17 % Exports - 0.18 % + 0.14 % + 0.09 % Imports - 0.12 % + 0.07 % + 0.05 % GDP - 0.09% + 0.26% + 0.16 % Employment - 0.15 % + 0.38% + 0.29 % CPI - 0.02% - 0.69 % -0.06 % Price of petrol for all scenarios: + 1.9 cents/litre Source: Harvey 2001, Tables 1.2 and 2.1. The GST reduction option assumes a fixed real wage for its calculations. Fuel price increases vary by carbon content of the fuel: varies for types of gas, oil, and coal, and electricity made from fossil fuel. Some examples of climate change related tax policies overseas are given in Table 9.2. 7 8 9 Infometrics Consulting 2001, Bertram 2001, and Harvey 2001. CBC Min (01)3/4 refers (quoted in Harvey 2001, p.1). IPCC 2001c, para. 15. 86 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 9.2: Overseas examples of tax policies that provide incentives to decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Country Tax programme relating to greenhouse gas emissions (a) Taxes on carbon, CO2 or fossil fuel Denmark Finland Germany Ireland Netherlands Sweden Switzerland UK CO2 taxes Introduced in 1992, revised 1993 and 1999. 100DKK (NZ$27.67) per tonne CO2. Subsidy schemes in place to return the revenue to industry for work-related expenses and energy efficiency. Companies which enter into voluntary agreements to reduce energy use can also obtain CO2 tax reductions. As of 2000, light industry paid 90% of the tax, and heavy industry 25%. Electricity is taxed at the consumption rather than production level. All sectors but transport covered. Energy tax on household and public sector, and heating used by industry and energy utilities. Differentiated by energy type: per GJ, generally 41DKK (NZ$11.34), but unleaded gasoline 102DKK (NZ$28.33), diesel 67DKK (NZ$18.61), and natural gas 31DKK (NZ$8.61). Sulphur tax Per kilogram of sulphur or SO2 emitted. Coal and heating oil attract all three taxes. Passenger car fuel efficiency tax Annual taxes by efficiency capacity and fuel type of vehicle. 48 different rates, from minimum of DKK440 (NZ$122) for petrol cars able to get 20+ km per litre, to maximum of DKK22,020 (NZ$6,116) for diesel cars able to get only 4.5-4.8 km per litre. National goal: reduce 1988 levels of CO2 emissions 20% by 2005. Tax on CO2 emissions In 1999 Parliament approved increase from FMK 82 (NZ$28.58) to FMK 102 (NZ$35.55) per ton of CO2. Use of wood tax-exempt, but tax on peat increasing from FMK 4.9 (NZ$1.71) to FMK 9 (NZ$3.14) per kWh of energy produced. Energy taxes Effective April 1999, energy taxes increased by Pf6/litre for diesel and gasoline, Pf4/litre for heating oil, Pf 2/kWh for natural gas, and Pf 0.32/kWh for electricity (NZ 6.4 to 0.3 cents). Exemptions for manufacturing industry (pay only 20% of the tax), and oil and gas for power generation in industry (not taxed). Further increases scheduled for 2000-2003. Carbon tax Approved Dec. 1998, started 1999, and fully phased in by 2005. A progressive tax applying to all energy products. The existing tax structure on other fuels will be retained. Carbon tax Introduced in 1999, the “BSB” tax discriminates between three fuel types, with the highest tax on coal. Energy and CO2 tax A range of rates by fuel or energy type. Unleaded petrol SEK4.5 (NZ$1.03) per litre, diesel SEK 2922 to 3446 (NZ$668 to $778) per m3, natural 3 gas SEK1033 (NZ$236) per m , electricity consumption SEK 0.162 (NZ 3.7 cents) per kWh. Tax on non-renewable fuels Approval granted by both Swiss Parliamentary chambers as of 1999. Tax on non-renewable fuels such as petroleum, gas, oil, coal and uranium of 0.3 centimes (NZD 0.04 cents) per kWh produced. 450 million Swiss francs per year to be used to promote renewable energies (e.g. solar and hydro), energy efficiency measures in buildings. “Climate Change Levy” Effective as of 1 April 2001. Taxes energy content rather than carbon content. Exemptions are allowed for the public transport sector, “good quality” combined heat and power businesses, companies which generate power from “green” sources, and businesses entering in energy saving programmes. After heavy lobbying, energy intensive industries received a 30% concession on the Levy, and an additional 80% discount if they signed energy efficiency agreements. It is projected that this measure will produce half of the national emissions reduction target (12.5% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2012) and GBP 1 billion in revenue. (b) Tax reductions for alternative fuels and technologies Australia Canada Japan USA Tax exemptions for trains Part of the “New Tax System”, from July 2000 (as reported in late 1999). 100% excise tax credit for rail transport to improve its competitive position. Reducing wastage of flared fossil fuels As of 1999 Federal Budget. Generating equipment fuelled by flare gas at oil fields eligible for higher capital cost tax allowance. To help reduce emissions and displace coal-fired electricity generation. Tele-work centres to reduce transport emissions Tax system gives incentives for “tele-work” centres to discourage long-distance commuting are given tax, and lower taxes on low fuel consumption and low-emission vehicles. Biomass electricity tax credit Proposed for FY 2000 budget. Extension for another five years for current tax credit of 1.5 cents (NZ 3.6 cents) per kWh for electricity produced from biomass and 1 cent (NZ 2.4 cents) tax credit for co-fired biomass and coal plants. Type of eligible biomass also extended to include certain forest and agriculture related resources. Tax credit for renewable power sources Tax credit for electricity from wind and other renewable sources. Expected to reduce the cost of wind power between US 1.3 – 2 cents (NZ 3 to 4.7 cents) per kWh. Sources: IEA 2000b; OECD 1999 (http://www.oecd.org/env/policies/taxes/index.htm); for Denmark, Kristofferson et al 1997; for Norway, Offshore November 1999, p. 18; for UK, European Report 31/3/01, p. 342; Economic Review (UK) 17(2):5; Nitrogen & Methanol Journal, January 2000, p.12. Abbreviations: GJ = Gigajoule and kWh = kiloWatt-hour (measures of energy).. Others are units of currency. Conversions to NZ dollars as of May 2001 (source Pacific Exchange Rate Service at http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/data.html ) 87 The greenhouse effect and climate change 9.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Emissions trading and quotas The basic principle behind “emissions trading” is that an artificial element of scarcity is injected into a market which regards the atmosphere (as a sink for emissions) as inexhaustible and “free”. Once scarcity has been created, such as through legal quotas for emissions that reduce over time, parties can take the cheapest option to reduce emissions, either doing it themselves (and sell the surplus if they can do it relatively cheaply), or buying emission credits from another party. Emissions trading is seen by proponents as a cheaper and more efficient alternative to historic “command and control” regulatory approaches. Theoretically a range of commodities could be tradable under the Kyoto Protocol, including: • carbon sink credits (e.g. from “Kyoto Forest”, either from a country or a private holder); surplus emission rights (“assigned amount” not required by an Annex I country, or surplus • private emissions quota under a domestic scheme); • emission reductions that are cheaper to effect than one’s own emissions at home in nonAnnex I countries (Cleaner Development Mechanism or CDM), in Annex I countries (Joint Implementation), or private transactions within a domestic quotas scheme. The rules for international greenhouse gas emissions trading have not yet been set up, apart from a few policy decisions made in Bonn in July 2001 (Box 2 in Chapter 1). It is hoped that current negotiations and pilot schemes will lead to a system being in place by 2008. The estimated value of “emissions units” for 2008-2012 is $13 to $50 per tonne of CO2 equivalent.10 An emissions cap and quotas for the electricity sector have been introduced in Denmark in anticipation of an international emissions trading scheme being developed, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading Pilot is in operation in Canada, and a domestic emissions trading pilot is scheduled to start in the UK in 2002. Other countries investigating introduction of a domestic emissions trading scheme include Australia, France, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the USA.11 A discussion document on carbon sink credit trading for New Zealand was released in July 2001. The possible rules have been summarised in the chapter on carbon sinks (section 5.2.2, Table 5.6) as a central issue is the rights and obligations of New Zealand’s forest owners. With limited experience in emissions trading worldwide, the benefits for climate change at this stage remain largely theoretical. There are two models with a longer track record: the US Acid Rain Program and New Zealand’s fisheries management using Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs). The New Zealand fisheries quota management system has successfully created a market (an estimated 77% of originally allocated quota having changed ownership) and the Acid Rain Program has achieved a 25-30% reduction in SO2 emissions and acid deposition in the most sensitive region since 1995.12 However, neither of these programmes has faced the exact suite of issues relevant to greenhouse gas emission management. In particular, documenting “additionality” for CDM (Cleaner Development Mechanism) project credits and ensuring accountability and transparency could add significantly to transaction costs. Reconciliation of privately generated emission credits with national emission reduction targets is another challenge. Key design issues for either international or domestic schemes include; • defining the unit of trade (e.g. tonnes of CO2 equivalent); • administration (registry of emission unit holdings and transfers, emissions inventory, etc.); • assigning points of obligation (for reporting emissions and sinks); • initial allocation of emission units or ownership of carbon sinks. 10 Ministry of Economic Development, http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/environment/climate/emissions/index.html IEA 2000b pp. 58, 69, 118; U.K. Department of the Environment http://www.environment.dtlr.gov.uk/consult/ggetrade , para. 1.15; UK Emissions Trading Group http://www.uketg.com; Ministry for the Environment 1999. 12 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 1998 pp. 1-12; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1999, pp. 5,9. 11 88 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 One of the unresolved issues in international emissions trading is that of “hot air”, or credit for emissions which are no longer being produced. Some countries, primarily in Eastern Europe, have suffered economic collapse and a reduction in emissions of up to a third since the 1990 baseline under the Kyoto Protocol. If they do not significantly increase their current emission levels, they will theoretically have carbon credits to trade with other countries or industries wishing to offset their emissions. For Russia, the value of surplus assigned amount in 2008-2012 has been estimated at about $10 billion a year.13 Countries or private agents which purchase such credits will be basing their “right to pollute” on assigned amount which is no longer being used, and additional reduction in global emissions will not result. A discussion of the Joint Implementation and Clean Development Mechanisms, which will involve trading in some form, is in section 9.8. 9.5 Creating a market for “green energy” Deregulation of the energy retailing market and separation of generation and delivery services allows the creation of a special market for “green energy” for consumers to select if they choose, as long as other market barriers do not remain and adequate incentives exist. M-co, the company that runs New Zealand’s electricity market, developed an internet-based Green Electricity Market (GEM) programme for Australia. The GEM will allow electricity retailers to fulfil their new obligations under the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000 for an additional 2% of all electricity to come from renewable sources by 2010. The “green” electricity joins all other electricity in the national grid, but generators receive Renewable Electricity Certificates as to the amount generated, and it is these certificates which are traded. In June 2001 the average price for the certificates in the 10-year forward trade market was A$25.14 The GEM was also tested in Europe in May 2001 at the invitation of the European Union.15 Other places with developing markets include Belgium, the European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the UK, and seven states in the USA.16 Unlike many other countries New Zealand already has a high percentage (73%) of electricity from renewable sources, mainly hydroelectricity. However, this advantage is being eroded by increasing use of fossil fuels. Like the USA, Canada, Japan and Norway, New Zealand has had a declining share of renewables in both total energy and electricity (Figure 9.1). In New Zealand, unlike in the countries where markets for “green energy” are developing, there are no regulatory or market incentives to encourage development of renewable energy sources or trade in green energy. For example, the developer of the Tararua Wind Farm has stated that it is the only large wind farm in the world that does not have some form of financial assistance from government. A recent campaign that sought to gain 16,100 subscribers willing to pay $2 more a week for green energy to subsidise stage two of the wind farm netted only 200.17 New Zealand’s draft National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy contains voluntary encouragement measures rather than legal and/or fiscal ones as used in other countries (Table 10.3). 13 Raab 2001, Major winners and losers at Bonn climate talks, http://www.earthtimes.org/bonn The Independent 16 May 2001, M-co grows green electricity business, (p. 7); http://www.gemoz.com ; http://www.greenprices.nl ; http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/markets/2percent_ren. Australia’s Mandatory Renewable Energy Target commenced on 1 April 2001 and requires the generation of 9,500 gigawatt hours of extra renewable electricity per year by 2010, enough power to meet the residential electricity needs of four million people. 15 http://www.m-co.co.nz/Dnews/010516.htm 16 IEA 2000b, p. 69, 93; Energeia 16/1/01 cited on http://www.greenprices.nl/nl/newsitem.asp?nid=165;http://www.greenprices.com. The USA states are Arizona, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Jersey and Texas (Union of Concerned Scientists 2000, http://www.ucsusa.org/energy/brief.rps.html). 17 Manawatu Evening Standard 20/7/01, Windfarm in the doldrums. 14 89 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 9.1 Change from 1991 to 1998 in the share of renewable and waste energy sources in total primary energy supply (TPES) and total electricity. Ranked by share of electricity. Source: International Energy Agency 2000d, pp. II.326-11.354. “Renewable” energy includes hydro, solar, geothermal, wind, tide/wave/ ocean, heat pumps, biomass, methane from biowaste, and bio-alcohols. “Wastes” includes industrial and municipal wastes (combustion and other). Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Japan Italy USA NZ TPES electricity Australia Canada Norway Sweden Ireland Germany Finland UK Netherlands Denmark -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% percent change 1991-1998 9.6 Financial support through grants and loans Historically fossil fuels have been subsidised in many countries. Among OECD countries these subsidies have been slowly declining. Belgium, Portugal and the UK have eliminated their coal subsidies since 1992, but 5% of the coal produced in OECD member countries remained subsidised in 1999. Initiatives to remove the remaining subsidies on coal and other fossil fuels are not apparent.18 Financial support to load additional market value on energy efficiency and renewable and other alternative fuels are common measures used overseas. Examples are shown in Table 9.3. In New Zealand, EECA operates the Energy Saver Fund and other grants to assist low income groups to retrofit energy efficiency measures in homes, and loan schemes to assist government agencies and the private sector to invest in improved energy efficiency. 9.7 Energy efficiency standards and labelling Standards can set acceptable levels of energy efficiency in consumer products (either voluntary or mandatory), and labelling can give consumers the information they need in the marketplace to include energy efficiency among the factors they consider when choosing between products. New Zealand is currently preparing to introduce a Minimum Energy Performance Standard (MEPS) and an energy labelling regime for a range of products. There is currently a voluntary system in place for refrigerators, modelled on the Australian standard. Overseas, a variety of initiatives are in place (Table 9.4). 18 IEA 2000b, p. 26. 90 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 9.3: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Overseas examples of subsidy, grant and loan programmes for encouraging energy efficiency and use of alternative and renewable energy. Australia Renewable Remote Power Generation Up to 50% rebate for costs of installation conversion from diesel to renewable generation in remote areas, through A$264 m (NZ$325 m) to states and territories. Subsidy – photovoltaic systems (solar panels to produce electricity) Rebate for up to 50% of the costs of installing household photovoltaic systems (max. A$8,250 (NZ$10,157) per household), total funding A$31m (NZ$ 38.2m). Alternative Fuel Conversion Programme As of July 2000, grants for new alternative fuels vehicle (up to 50% of the difference in price from conventional vehicle) and conversions to CNG or LPG (up to 50% of cost of conversion). Canada Commercial Building Incentive Programme Operating since 1997, expanded in 1999 to include multi-unit residential buildings. Onceonly grant of twice the estimated annual energy cost savings for approved designs up to a maximum of $80,000 (NZ$122,984). Helps offset the cost of designing energy-efficient buildings. Natural Gas for Vehicles Initiative Provides market, emission and safety studies, information, technology transfer, and direct subsidies to encourage production and use of alternative fuel vehicles. C$2000 (NZ$3,075) is provided for each factory-built natural gas vehicle or C$500 (NZ$768) for each road vehicle converted to natural gas. In 1999 the programme was renewed to 2001. Germany 100,000 Roofs Solar Power Programme A total of DM 1.1 billion (NZ$1.17 billion) over 1999-2005 for low-interest loans for installation of photovoltaics (solar panels to produce electricity). Renewable energy price subsidy As of March 2000, guaranteed prices to producers for electricity from renewable sources. Aim is to double the share of renewable energy by 2010. Fixed subsidy rates rather than linkage to consumer prices, e.g. solar power, subsidised price DM.99 (NZ$1.05) per kWh, up from market level of about DM.17 (NZ 18 cents). Geothermal, methane, and biomass also benefit but at lower rates. The law was controversial, and calls for review of the solar power subsidy once market share increases. Renewable energy promotion From 1999 to 2003, a total of DM 1 billion (NZ$1.06 billion) is allocated to support the installation of solar thermal collectors (subsidy within certain limits), and energy conservation measures in buildings (grants or low-interest loans). Netherlands Energy efficiency in industry Subsidies are available from the Novem agency to firms in the asphalt, ceramics and steel industries for improving energy efficiency. Tax breaks are also available if emission reductions are agreed to. Source: IEA 2000b. Conversions to NZ dollars as of May 2001 (source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service at http://pacific.commerce.ubc.ca/xr/data.html ) 91 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 9.4: Overseas examples of energy efficiency standards and labelling initiatives. Australia Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) introduced for refrigerators, freezers, and electric water heaters. New passenger cars will require mandatory model-specific fuel consumption labelling under the Australian Design Rule. Canada An EnerGuide Labelling Programme is in place for home appliances and equipment. In 1999-2000 this was expanded to provide the public with information to enable them to make energy-wise decisions in relation to home improvements and home buying. Denmark An energy label is required on all new passenger cars in salesrooms (from April 2000). European Union Mandatory energy efficiency labelling in place for household appliances since 1992. All household electric lamps will be required to carry a label showing energy efficiency from the beginning of 2001. New passenger cars sold in the EU will be required to carry a label on fuel economy and CO2 emissions from the beginning of 2001. Germany Energy consumption labelling for domestic light bulbs and dishwashers is required (as of 2000). Japan Environment and Energy Friendly Building Mark indicates energy conservation performance above a certain standard, for structures other than houses (since 1999). Standards for homes are also being developed. USA Federal energy efficiency standards are in place for equipment and appliances such as heating and cooling equipment, water heaters, lighting, refrigerators, clothes washers and dryers, and cooking equipment. It is estimated that this measure will prevent the emission of 225 million tonnes of carbon (cumulative) by 2010. Source: IEA 2000b; EECA 2000. Energy efficiency in building codes A particular form of energy efficiency standard is the building code. A significant portion of households’ contribution to greenhouse gas emissions comes from heating and cooling. Buildings can be built in such a way as to minimise the need for electricity and fossil fuels for heating and cooling, through such measures as insulation and design for passive solar power. Market barriers mean that this is often not done. Making the use of mandatory standards ensures the nation's building stock is made progressively more energy efficient over time. In New Zealand, minimum household insulation requirements were put into law in 1977. However, the standard was based on the Auckland climate and not well suited to the majority of the country, and it omitted consideration of other types of energy inefficiency in buildings. Improvements were developed, but blocked for over 20 years primarily by Treasury.19 Enhanced building energy efficiency standards are now effective through amendments to clause H1 of the Building Code (effective 31 December 2000). These improve the minimum insulation requirements for colder areas, introduce heat loss and lighting energy level limits for commercial buildings, and set maximum heat loss from hot water storage systems.20 19 20 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment 2000, pp. 60-65. e.g. The Dominion 19 July 2000; EECA. 92 The greenhouse effect and climate change 9.8 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation The Kyoto Protocol allows for development of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) projects.21 These essentially involve Annex I Parties obtaining greenhouse gas credits for reductions that occur in other countries through their sponsorship. The theory behind CDM and JI is essentially that for climate change purposes it does not matter where in the world reductions in greenhouse gas emissions occur, and it may often be cheaper to reduce them in lesser developed countries where costs are lower. It is therefore a market mechanism. CDM projects would be between Annex I Parties and non-Annex I countries (i.e. between developed and developing countries), and JI projects would be between Annex I Parties, such as between the European Union and Eastern Europe. CDM is seen as a way for wealthier countries to assist developing countries to adopt cleaner energy technology sooner, and as a source of valuable revenue for developing countries, potentially creating a “win-win” situation. The rules for CDM and JI under the Kyoto Protocol have not been agreed upon, and were in fact one of the points of contention on which the COP6 gathering foundered in November 2000. However, many pilot projects have already taken place and their proponents are hoping that they will qualify under the rules that finally do emerge. Prior to the Kyoto Protocol, a number of projects that may subsequently qualify as CDM or JI were initiated under the UNFCCC in a pilot phase for Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ). Currently on the AIJ database are 144 projects, the majority relating to energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fuel switching. Other project types are forest preservation, afforestation, agriculture, and fugitive gas capture.22 Examples of these and other trial projects are summarised in Figure 9.5. The World Bank has also established a Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF), a “learning by doing” project for CDM and JI type projects. Private sector and government parties buy into the fund, in exchange for a pro-rata share of the resulting greenhouse gas emission credits. In October 2000 five projects were nearing implementation. The PCF projects are expected to commence development by the end of 2003 and be operational before January 2008.23 Before the international rules under the Kyoto Protocol for CDM and JI can be agreed to, some major issues must be resolved. These issues include the following. “Additionality”, “free riding”, and establishing baselines In order to gain CDM or JI credits, there must be evidence that the project will create a genuine reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions. In other words, the reduction must be additional to any reduction that might have occurred anyway. “Free riding” is a term used in the climate change literature to refer to the possibility that a project will claim a reduction that is not truly additional, or generally that entities will benefit from actions without contributing to their costs. 21 Kyoto Protocol, Articles 6 (Joint Implementation) and 12 (Clean Development Mechanism). UNFCCC, Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ), on http://www.unfccc.de/program/aij/aijproj.html 23 World Bank http://www.prototypecarbonfund.com The projects nearing implementation were in Latvia (methane capture from solid waste), Costa Rica (renewable resources), Czech Republic (energy efficiency), Uganda (small hydro power), and Guyana (biomass co-generation). 22 93 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 9.5: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Examples of pilot Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation type projects, and other pilot emissions trading Countries involved Project summary (a) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) type projects Annex I and non-Annex I Parties Norway Mexico World Bank GEF energy efficiency Norway Denmark Netherlands Burkina Faso alternative fuels Australia with Solomon Islands, Fiji, Mauritius, Indonesia, Chile The “Ilumex” project involves subsidised replacement of 1.7 million household incandescent light bulbs with energy-efficient fluorescent bulbs in Monterrey and Guadalajara, saving 940 Gwh of electricity and preventing the associated CO2, CH4 , SO2 and NOx emissions. Norway has not sought emission credits in exchange for its US$3m (NZ$1.3m) share. Commenced in 1995. The overall objective is to meet growing urban demand for household fuels in Burkina Faso without further loss of forest cover and carbon sequestration potential. Methods subsidised are efficient carbonisation techniques to minimise fuelwood use, community-based forest management, kerosene cooking stoves, and rural photovoltaic systems. Protection of 130,000 tonnes of timber and prevention of 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 over 5 to 6 years are anticipated. The lifetime of these AIJ projects range from 1 to 20 years, and the estimated CO2 reduction ranges from 13 to 5,200,000 tonnes. Projects involve energy efficiency (air conditioning in Solomon Islands and power generation efficiency in Mauritius), renewable energy (solar in Fiji and Mauritius and micro-hydro in Solomon Islands), fugitive gas capture (natural gas in Chile), and renewable energy training and demonstration (Indonesia). (b) Joint Implementation (JI) type projects between Annex I Parties Netherlands Czech Republic alternative fuels Netherlands Romania energy efficiency Norway Slovakia alternative fuels Sweden Balkan States mostly energy Project expected to be operational March 2000. The Netherlands helped fund a new biomass heating grid and boiler plant in the town of Hostetin. The two countries will share equally the CO2 credits for the period 2008-2012. Agreement signed in 1999. The Netherlands will provide 2 million guilders (NZ$1.88 m) for two energy efficiency projects in the town of Targu Mures at a drinking water plant and a wastewater treatment plant. The CO2 reductions created will be credited back to the Netherlands national target after 2000. Norway will contribute NOK 1.2 m (NZ$311,000) to convert two district heating schemes from fossil fuels to biofuels. The net CO2 reduction is 50,000 tonnes. This is viewed as a basis for more agreements in future. As of 1999, Sweden financed 66 Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) with Balkan states, of which 51 have been approved under the AIJ programme. The total CO2 reduction up to 1999 was 814,036 tonnes, and during 1999 was 201,954 tonnes. (c) Other – involving private parties Canada USA carbon sinks / soil management carbon credits/ energy production carbon credits/ methane reduction USA Ecuador forest protection USA Chile renewable energy • A group of 10 Canadian energy companies will pay Iowa farmers for reducing CO2 emissions and improving CO2 sinks in soil, in exchange for obtaining the resulting CO2 credits. The farmers must practise no-till or minimum-till soil management. The first deal is expected to produce 1.3 million tons of carbon credits for 2000, and up to 6 million tons by 2012. The price per carbon credit in 1999 was C$0.50 to $2.50 (NZ$0.77 to $3.84). • Canadian oil sands producer Suncor Energy purchased 100,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas emission credits from the USA utility Niagra Mohawk Power Corporation which had significantly reduced their emissions from 1990 levels. The agreement commits Niagra Mohawk to reinvest at least 70% of the net proceeds in new projects to reduce emissions further, and includes options of purchasing up to 10 million additional tonnes per year from 2001, depending on the provision of credits by the respective governments. • In 1999, Ontario Power Generation Inc. bought 2.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emission reductions from Zahren Alternative Power Corp., a USA operator of landfill gas collection and energy projects. PriceWaterhouseCoopers will independently verify the reductions. World Parks Endowment Inc. has sponsored the purchase of 2,000 ha. of lowland wet forest threatened with logging to form a new Bilsa Biological Reserve. Protection of biodiversity was the main objective, but 1,170,107 tonnes of CO2 will also not be released from sequestration by logging. (AIJ project) The Wind Energy Project will install 50 windmills with 37.5 MW generating capacity, saving approximately 3 million tonnes of CO2 from coal-fired energy generation over a 20 year period. The sponsor is the International Institute for Energy Conservation. (AIJ project) Sources: UNFCCC http://www.unfccc.d/program/aij ; Work Bank http://www-esd.worldbank.org/aij/brief.htm ; IEA 2000b. GEF = Global Environment Facility Trust Fund. Contributed to by Annex I Parties, and administered by the World Bank as Trustee and Implementing Agency. About two-thirds of all project-related GEF resources are allocated to the World Bank GEF portfolio. 94 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The key to ensuring “additionality” is the setting of accurate baselines. The trouble is “what would have happened anyway” is not known with accuracy and can only be estimated. Broad industry or country averages and standardising have been proposed to reduce the costs of estimating project-specific baselines and therefore encouraging more CDM or JI projects to take place, but this may be at the expense of certainty that all of the claimed greenhouse gas emission credits will actually help reverse climate change. For example, a new gas-fired power station in India could generate almost US$300,000 of credits per year (using a “low” carbon credit of US$5 per tonne CO2) if compared to recent generating capacity construction in the electricity sector generally (all technologies), but significantly less if compared only with recently constructed gas plants. In another example, uncertainties in simple refurbishment-type efficiency improvement projects in the energy sector can be as high as ± 80%.24 Accountability and transparency CDM and JI reporting needs to be transparent enough to allow a third party to understand key features of a CDM or JI project, the project baseline (“no project” scenario), and any greenhouse gas emission reduction credits generated. In contrast, an analysis of 45 pilot projects found a significant lack of documentation of the data and assumptions behind the project baselines.25 The Annex I Parties and industry players generally agree that accountability and transparency are essential elements of any CM/ JI rules, but have not agreed on how this would work in practice. “Gaming” The risk that parties will deliberately inflate individual project baselines to maximise greenhouse gas emission-reduction credits is termed “gaming” in the climate change literature. The International Energy Agency considers that the risk of gaming is a significant drawback of project-specific baselines, and that the potential for gaming will be reduced if standardised baseline assumptions are developed through a process with independent experts.26 “Leakage” If upstream and downstream effects of a project on greenhouse gas emissions are not taken into account, then the estimated actual effect of the CDM or JI project may be significantly under- or over- estimated. “Leakage” is the term used in climate change literature to describe changes in emissions that occur outside of the project boundary and evaluation of the project’s performance. If the project accounting net is thrown widely, the accuracy of the baseline should significantly improve, but the cost of accounting may be prohibitive. “Double counting” may also occur for indirect emissions over which the project has no control if another CDM or JI project accounts for them as well. “Fungibility” This comes from a legal term meaning exactly equivalent for the relevant purposes. In the climate change negotiations context, it means whether or not emissions reductions earned can be readily directed, or redirected, at any time to meet any Annex I country’s obligations, regardless of whether they are credits from surplus assigned amounts for countries’ emissions, 24 25 26 IEA 2000c, pp. 23, 34. OECD 1999, cited in IEA 2000c, p. 23. IEA 2000c, p. 27. 95 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 carbon sinks, or credits from CDM or JI projects. In other words, will emissions credits be fully exchangeable regardless of the country and method of origin? Allowing Annex I countries to continue “business as usual” When the USA proposed at COP6 to claim a large proportion of its emission reductions in CDM projects, many Third World and European community nations objected. Essentially the concern was that in order to reduce dangerous anthropogenic effects on the climate, greenhouse gas emissions need to be substantially reduced at source in the industrialised nations as well as in developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol requires that JI projects be supplemental to domestic actions (Article 6(1)d), and the text on CDM refers to the earned credits being eligible for meeting part of reduction commitments (Article 12(3)b), but leaves open for debate the quantum actually allowed. Impact on indigenous peoples and ecosystems Indigenous peoples have voiced strong concern about the way CDM may operate in practice. “Our intrinsic relation with Mother Earth obliges us to oppose the inclusion of sinks in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) because it reduces our sacred land and territories to mere carbon sequestration which is contrary to our cosmovision and philosophy of life. Sinks in the CDM would constitute a worldwide strategy for expropriating our lands and territories and violating our fundamental rights that would culminate in a new form of colonialism. Sinks in the CDM would not help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, rather it would provide industrialised countries with a ploy to avoid reducing their emissions at source.” 27 For example, evidence has been presented of Pygmy hunter-gatherers being driven from their home to make way for a World Bank CDM-type forestry project.28 There are currently 13 “forest preservation” projects under the Activities Implemented Jointly programme. One of these involves the introduction of “reduced impact logging” in East Kalimantan (Indonesia) in areas where logging has already been scheduled. CO2 reduction credits are calculated for logging of indigenous forests if techniques are used that cause less damage to non-economic species and soil resources. While technically this approach may release less carbon than “business as usual” logging, it may still pose a significant risk to biodiversity and indigenous peoples.29 The latest Kyoto Protocol agreement from Bonn now excludes such “avoided deforestation” type activities from CDM, as only afforestation and reforestation qualify. In addition, an agreed principle guiding all LULUCF activities (CDM or otherwise) is that they contribute to “the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of natural resources.”30 There is no specific mention of protecting the interests of indigenous peoples. 27 Declaration of the First International Forum of Indigenous Peoples on Climate Change, 4-6 September 2000, available on http://www.ienearth.org/climate_1-p2.html . Signatories represented alliances of native peoples of tropical forests including Asia, the South Pacific, the Americas (including the Amazon), and Africa. 28 Climate Alliance, Indigenous peoples of the tropical rainforest and the CDM, quote from K. Zephryin of Rwanda, internet address as for previous footnote. 29 http://www.unfccc.de/program/aij/aijact00/usaidn01-00.html , pp. 1, 17. 30 UNFCCC 2001c, section 3.8, and by reference section VII.1.e 96 The greenhouse effect and climate change 9.9 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 CDM and the nuclear energy issue Overseas there is a strong lobby to get nuclear energy accepted as a “clean” fuel with regard to climate change. At the last Conference of Parties (COP 6, The Hague), Australia, Canada and Japan reportedly pushed for nuclear power to be officially accepted as suitable for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects under the Kyoto Protocol.31 Under this scenario, developed countries could gain greenhouse gas emission “credits” by providing aid to developing countries to build a nuclear power station instead of one powered by fossil fuels. The proposal was not agreed to. Greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear energy plants are low compared to generation of electricity using fossil fuels.32 Nuclear energy generates about 35% of the electricity in European Union (EU) countries, and the European Commission has estimated that EU nuclear reactors prevent 312 million tonnes of CO2 from entering the atmosphere annually, equivalent to 7% of total EU emissions. The European Atomic Forum, a nuclear industry trade group, has estimated that worldwide, nuclear energy plants help avoid the emission of 1.8 billion tonnes of CO2.33 However, the risks of long-term radioactive contamination from power plant emissions, accidents, or inadequate waste treatment are significant environmental liabilities from this energy source. These were brought to vivid public attention following the 1986 Chernobyl accident. In 2000, no reactors were under construction, on order, or planned in North America or Europe; but in 14 other countries, primarily in Asia and Eastern Europe, 38 reactors were in the planning and construction stages.34 The latest Kyoto Protocol agreement from Bonn requires Annex I Parties “to refrain” from using certified emission reductions generated from nuclear power facilities to meet their greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments.35 31 Tilting at Windmills: Nuclear Power and Climate Change, Habitat Australia 2001, 29(1):18. Nuclear electricity production per se produces no greenhouse gas emissions, but emissions arise from the extraction, transport, and processing of fuels, the development and maintenance of nuclear waste storage facilities, and the transport of nuclear waste. 33 Sains, A 2001, The Uncertain Future Of Nuclear Energy, Europe Feb.2001, p. 26; Laurent, C 2001, Beating Global Warming with Nuclear Power?, UNESCO Courier Feb. 2001, p. 38 34 Laurent 2001, p. 39; reactor construction data from The International Atomic Energy Agency. 35 UNFCCC 2001c, section 3.2. 32 97 The greenhouse effect and climate change 98 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 10 Additional detail: the New Zealand situation An historical overview of New Zealand’s climate change policy 1990 to 2001 is in chapter 2, and summaries of Government action are noted throughout the report as appropriate. This chapter provides more detail on some key elements. 10.1 Economic instruments The three domestic climate change policy options proposed by the Government in 1999 for public discussion primarily employed economic instruments. Measures to educate the public and industry and to remove other barriers to energy efficiency were considered to be “complementary measures”.1 The proposed domestic policy options were: • Forward trading This option would focus on enhancing domestic awareness of the domestic and international carbon emission trading systems that would operate during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period 2008-2012. This would allow New Zealand firms in a position to forward trade (trade in anticipation of 2008-2012) to engage in trades with each other. There would be no mandatory requirement to reduce domestic emissions prior to 2008-2012, but firms could choose to do so if they decided it was cost effective. • Carbon charge with pilot trading This option would focus on introducing a price for carbon into the market as soon as possible, combined with a pilot carbon-trading programme for major point-source firms. Participants in the pilot scheme would be asked to accept a cap on emissions below “business as usual”, in exchange for being exempt from the carbon charge, and participation would probably be voluntary. The carbon charge would be “low”, possibly $5-$10 per tonne of CO2. • Carbon charge This option would focus on introducing a price for carbon into the market as soon as possible while work progresses on the design and implementation of a comprehensive domestic emissions trading system. The charge would be applied at a uniform rate across all CO2 emitters, add to the price of the product, be subject to GST, and be a deductible business expense in businesses’ liability for income tax. The carbon charge would be “low”, possibly $5-$10 per tonne of CO2. Submissions were received on these proposals, but decisions on any economic instrument were deferred until further advancement of Kyoto Protocol negotiations. In 2001, an analysis of the likely economic impacts of a low-level carbon charge was forwarded to Tax Review 2001. More detail is in chapter 9, together with the discussion on tax policies (section 9.3). Government has indicated that if Tax Review 2001 recommends a carbon charge, that it would not be implemented until after the next election (section 2.2). A discussion paper on forest sinks and carbon trading was released in 2001. The proposed features of a trading regime are summarised in the chapter on forest sinks (section 5.2). 1 Ministry for the Environment 1999, pp. 67-71. The greenhouse effect and climate change 10.2 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA), originally established in 1992, is now a Crown entity under the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000. The function of the authority is now to encourage, promote, and support energy efficiency, energy conservation, and the use of renewable sources of energy (s 21). Over five years, Government funded EECA $30 million. Programmes with “hard quantifiable” benefits have cost around $12.5m and achieved benefits of $59m (net present value $46.5m). Programmes with “soft/indirect” benefits, such as the Energy-Wise Companies Campaign that has served over 700 businesses but where energy savings are subject to commercial confidentiality, are estimated to have produced benefits five to six times the programme costs. 2 A summary of cumulative benefits from EECA funding is presented in Table 10.1, EECA funding trends in Figures 10.1 and 10.2, and the budget and output objectives in Table 10.2. A draft of the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, required by the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2000, was prepared by EECA and released by the Minister of Energy in March 2001 for public comment. The draft proposed a wide range of initiatives designed to reduce the market and other barriers to widespread adoption of energy efficiency and conservation, which are summarised in Table 10.3. The Act requires the final strategy to be published by 1 October 2001. 2 http://www.eeca.govt.nz/content/EECA_Corporate/overview.htm 100 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 10.1: Summary of EECA cumulative benefits 1999-2000. Cumulative benefits “soft/ indirect” programmes to 1999/00 “hard quantifiable” programmes to 1999/00 TOTAL $71 m $135-$185 m $206 to $256 m Energy cost savings 1.1 m tonnes 4.3 m tonnes 5.4 m tonnes CO2 emission reductions “Hard quantifiable” programmes have fully documented savings. “Soft/indirect” programmes involve a variety of actions by third parties with results that are self-reported or estimates. If the total is averaged over the period 1992-2000, or eight years, it equals 675,000 tonnes/year. If that amount is added to the 1999 national emissions data, one can estimate that without the EECA programmes New Zealand’s total greenhouse gas emissions would have been 0.9% higher, and total CO2 emissions 2.2% higher, in 1999. Sources: EECA Annual Report for 1999/2000; Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10. kT = kilotonnes = 1,000 tonnes Figure 10.1: Actual and projected funding for the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA), 1993/94 to 2005/06 (GST inclusive, in $1,000, nominal (not adjusted for CPI)) 12500 10000 7500 5000 2500 0 1993/ 1994/ 1995/ 1996/ 1997/ 1998/ 1999/ 2000/ 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 Grants schemes 0 Crown Energy Efficiency loans 0 0 310 1850 4000 2500 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2000 2900 2000 850 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 758 498 539 Other revenue 469 Baseline appropriations 4366 5631 6984 6641 5644 4996 4640 7089 6565 6665 6665 6665 6665 691 567 563 356 389 391 391 391 391 Source: E. O’Connor, EECA, pers comm Note that the figure for 2000/01 will not match that in the Estimates of Appropriations 2001, as additional funding was approved in November 2000. Projected funding is based on current Government policy as conveyed to EECA. 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 2000/01 1999/00 1998/99 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 6000 1993/94 Figure 10.2: Total real funding for EECA 1993/94 to 2000/01 (adjusted for CPI, in current dollar terms) Total funding per year from Figure 10.1, adjusted using CPI to 2001 dollars, on a March year basis. 101 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 10.2: EECA’s Key Output objectives and budget for 2000/01 Description Cross-sectoral Budget $’000 (Excl GST) 2,392 Finalise the National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, including the report analysing submissions on the draft and recommendations to the Minister of Energy Establish and implement a methodology to measure New Zealand’s energy efficiency Continue to gain a detailed understanding of New Zealand’s energy efficiency performance and energy efficiency potential Raise awareness of energy efficiency in general, and EECA, through a combination of activities including publication of a ‘flag ship’ magazine Energy supply 887 Develop and implement appropriate measures to promote greater uptake of renewable energy sources Contribute to energy supply policy, including the gas sector review and Electricity Governance Board process Industry 865 Provide technical support, as appropriate, for Government in their development of Negotiated Greenhouse Agreements Undertake ‘business’ commitment programmes with three target audiences, business (Energy Wise Companies), central (GEELP) and local government (Energy Wise Councils) supported by a range of services including Crown loans and information services Make energy management a mainstream practice through the development of a growth strategy addressing both demand for energy efficiency service and fostering a market to meet the demand Buildings and Appliances 1,316 Implement mandatory, minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and mandatory labelling Administer the Energy Saver Fund (ESF) to provide a range of domestic retrofitting projects –paying particular attention to particular target audiences and management of the funding to maintain continuity across financial years for service providers Initiate a review of the recently enacted H1 (energy efficiency) elements of the Building Code and work with key elements of the new building industry to raise awareness of energy efficiency Continue research into current energy use patterns within homes and new research to start quantifying the health effects of energy efficiency measures Transport • • • Implement and promote the fleet management guidelines Undertake a review of current transport energy use patterns with a view to determining priorities for future transport activities Develop proposals for fuel efficiency information for new and imported light vehicle purchasers – which may also include consideration of energy efficiency standards for light vehicles Promote travel demand management proposals, including walking school buses and rideshare software • Begin to trial demand management initiatives being developed by others during the plan year • Total 929 6,389 This work programme includes EECA management of the Crown Energy Efficiency Loan Scheme. ($1,000,000 -GST not applicable) which is available to publicly funded bodies, and Energy Efficiency Grants ($2,000,000 - GST not applicable) which provide energy efficiency and renewable energy assistance to selected groups. Source: EECA, 7/2001. Note: “Walking school buses” (transport section) are when caregivers take turns walking with groups of children to school, rather than each family driving separate cars. 102 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 10.3 : Summary of the initiatives proposed in the Draft National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy, 2001. Sectors Proposed objectives Types of measures proposed Government and Local Authority 1. • 2. Buildings 1. 2. 3. Industry 1. 2. Transport 1. 2. 3. Leadership from central and local government with a sector target of 15% energy intensity reduction from their own operations in five years. Integration of sustainable energy outcomes with the goals, objectives, statement of intent, and planning processes of all arms of central and local government, including actions to achieve the Strategy targets. Leadership programmes Implement such programmes for central and local government energy efficiency, develop statements of intent, facilitate community projects. • Education Over the longer term, facilitate programmes for schools, trade training establishments, and the wider public on energy efficiency and renewable energy. • Pricing Develop pricing and taxes to support sustainable energy (longer term - part of current tax review). • Planning and Resource Management Develop guidelines under RMA for solar orientation and renewable energy projects. Longer term: encourage prominence of energy issues in plans under RMA, regional scale energy “accounting”, waste as an energy resource. Progressively upgrade the energy performance across all sectors of the existing building stock. Achieve “best practice” energy performance in new residential and commercial buildings. In 15 years, existing and new residential and commercial to be retrofitted or constructed to higher standards. • Progressive energy efficiency improvement in all industry subsectors to meet international best practice, industry by industry. Greater utilisation of renewable energy potential. In the short- to medium-term this will be focused on woody biomass from forest waste. • Voluntary commitment Develop “Negotiated Greenhouse Agreements” with major energy-intensive industries, and new “Business Commitment” programmes for small & medium sized industry. • Financial assistance Provide grants for energy audits, investigate tax concessions & other measures. Longer term: implement them. • Generic technologies standards, promotion Establish a Minimum Energy Performance Standard for electric motors; develop new “challenge” programmes. Longer term: further standards and labelling. • Information & research Undertake sector studies. Longer term: international benchmarking and research on woody biomass collection & utilisation. • Industry training Investigate industry training needs & opportunities. Longer term: implement industry training support. • Energy efficiency market promotion Longer term: possibly promote ESCOs (energy service companies), efficient shared and multi-site energy efficiency projects. Reduce energy use through travel-demand management. Increase the use of more energyefficient and eco-efficient vehicles and fuels. Improve the provision and uptake of low energy transport options. • Transport demand-reduction Encourage demandreduction trials (carpooling, tele-working); develop policies consistent with links between transport, energy efficiency and urban form. • Pricing Improve effectiveness of funding for alternatives to roading; continuing policy development. Longer term: develop road pricing and pro-efficiency trials. • Eco-efficient vehicles, other fuel options Facilitate ecoefficient vehicles in public fleet; monitor new technologies to guide policy; investigate & develop vehicle efficiency standards. Longer term: provide efficiency information (labelling), private sector fund for eco-efficient vehicles, possibly implement vehicle efficiency standards. • Energy efficient modes Provide information and supportive policies (e.g. greater funding for public transport, walking paths, and cycling facilities; more direction and advice in national transport strategy). Longer term: provide more explicit support policies & mechanisms to recognise energy efficiency advantages of coastal shipping and rail. Information Design guides for mass and glazing optimisation; energy efficiency rating and labelling schemes; building energy usage data; longer term, public information and industry skills upgrading. • Standards Promulgate “better” and “best” energy efficiency design practice for residential and commercial buildings, upgrade Building Code Clause H1. Longer term: extend to insulating standards, building design support. • Implementation support: Continue and redesign residential assistance programmes, upgrade Housing NZ and Government buildings. Longer term: develop commercial building incentives. continued next page 103⇒⇒ The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Table 10.3, continued. • Energy efficient road networks & traffic management: Reinforce the importance of better traffic-demand management to improve energy efficiency, particularly in high-volume areas. • Education and information Run an energy-efficient fleet management programme; publicise energy efficient driving practices, vehicle choice, and vehicle maintenance. Transport continued Energy Supply 1. 2. 3. Increase the amount (actual supply and % market share above business as usual) of supply from renewable energy source over time. Improve whole-system efficiencies of the energy supply sector. Improve the institutional arrangements within the energy supply sector so prices to energy consumers consistently support sustainability outcomes. • Electricity sector Establish appropriate incentives/ rules through Electricity Governance Board; ensure policy reflects good understanding of distributed generation & demand-side management; investigate ways to reduce network energy losses; ascertain support for energy-efficiency pricing; investigate “competition by comparison”. Longer-term: implement results of investigations. • Gas sector Ensure that Government’s review of the gas sector includes issues of network expansion, market development and pricing. Longer term: implement findings of review. • Renewables Provide guidelines to local authorities; do regional studies of renewable energy resources (including iwi interests); facilitate use of wood waste as energy in forestry processing; evaluate means to increase use of renewables in electricity generation; review research funding. Longer term: work with local authorities to get energy efficiency and renewables into RMA Plans, implement findings & appropriate mechanisms. • Industry development Support relevant industry associations; develop an action agenda on industry opportunities; develop support mechanisms for solar water heating industry; investigate transport biofuels opportunities. Longer term: implement findings & appropriate mechanisms. • Emerging technologies Locate and disseminate information on fuel cell and hydrogen technologies; identify and longer term implement alternative pathways for increasing use of hydrogen energy technology. Source: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 2000, Draft Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy. 10.3 Energy efficiency planning by government agencies The Government Energy Efficiency Leadership Programme (GEELP) was instigated by EECA in October 1993. From 1992-93 to 1998-99, the programme contributed $550,000 to annual energy cost savings, annual returns on investment of 40%, and cumulative cost savings to Government of $1.7m. As at June 1999, there were 33 member agencies in the programme. A comprehensive analysis of agency commitment to energy efficiency in 1999 showed a wide range, with the National Library of New Zealand, Ministry of Education and Inland Revenue being the three best, and Internal Affairs and the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet being the worst (Figure 10.3). In 2000, a new programme evolved from this effort. Energy-Wise Government was set up with a goal of 15% improvement in energy efficiency across the core public sector over 2000-2005. Agencies that sign voluntary agreements to enter this scheme agree to appoint energy managers, conduct detailed energy audits, implement all practical and cost-effective energyefficiency opportunities, and encourage building owners to improve energy efficiency where agency accommodation is leased.3 As of August 2001, the newly launched programme has 21 agencies as members. In 2000, Parliamentary Service won the public sector Energy-Wise Award. Energy efficiency activities in the Parliament Buildings are summarised in section 3.4. 3 EECA, Energy Efficiency Agreement. 104 The greenhouse effect and climate change Figure 10.3 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Ratings of government agency energy-efficiency policy, management, monitoring, staff training, and funding, 1999. Based on evaluation of 25 key performance indicators. Most agencies are expected to achieve a minimum score of 30. National Library of NZ Ministry of Education Inland Revenue Dept. Dept. of Social Welfare Ministry of Health Ministry of Youth Affairs Ministry of Commerce Dept. of Conservation Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Women's Affairs Parliamentary Service Reserve Bank of NZ Audit New Zealand Dept. for Courts Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade Crown Law Office Ministry of Housing NZ Customs Dept. Te Puni Kokiri Ministry of Transport State Services Commission Ministry of Research, Science and Technology The Treasury Ministry for the Environment Statistics NZ Office of the Auditor-General Dept. of Corrections Public Trust Dept. of Labour Land Information NZ Dept. of Prime Minister and Cabinet Dept. of Internal Affairs 15 30 45 energy efficiency policy performance indicator score Data not reported for Education Review Office, Ministry of Fisheries and Serious Fraud Office. Source: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 105 The greenhouse effect and climate change 10.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Public awareness and concern In March 2001, UMR Research completed a study of public awareness and level of concern about climate change commissioned by the New Zealand Climate Change Programme. The study included a nationally representative telephone survey of 750 people aged 18 and over, and four “focus groups” (number of people not specified). The margin of error for the telephone survey was ± 3.5%. Recommendations from analysis of the focus group results included: • • • • using the term “global warming” rather than “climate change”; clarifying the difference between the ozone layer and global warming; providing viable options for people to make greenhouse-friendly choices (e.g. availability of public transport); and making the economic implications of policies clear. As the press release and media reported only a very brief summary of the results, more detailed summary is presented in Table 10.4. 106 The greenhouse effect and climate change Table 10.4: Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Aggregate quantitative results from the UMR telephone survey of public awareness and concern about climate change Question “How much would you say you knew about the issues involved in global warming?” (a lot, a fair amount, not that much, hardly anything) “Have you heard of the Kyoto Protocol?” “Natural weather cycles which have made the world hotter and colder for tens of thousands of years are more important in determining climate than anything people do.“ (Scale of 1 strongly disagree to 7 strongly agree) “How much do you know about the New Zealand Government’s response to global warming?” (a lot, a fair amount, not that much, hardly anything) “There is nothing a small country like New Zealand can do about global warming.” (Scale of 1 strongly disagree to 7 strongly agree) “New Zealand should take an international lead on reducing global warming.” (Scale of 1 strongly disagree to 7 strongly agree) “ I am prepared to pay a little more and put up with some inconvenience to help the environment.” (Scale of 1 strongly disagree to 7 strongly agree) “How interested are you in finding out more about global warming?” (very interested, fairly interested, not very interested, not interested at all) “How would you like to get this information?” Grouping with largest response Percent “a lot” + “a fair amount” 63% “no” 7 “strongly agree” + 6 agree 1 “strongly disagree” + 2 disagree 60% “not that much” + “hardly anything” 22% 19% 84% 7 “strongly agree” + 6 agree 1 “strongly disagree” + 2 disagree 15% 7 “strongly agree” + 6 agree 47% 7 “strongly agree” + 6 agree 46% “very interested” + “fairly interested” 76% “television” 42.6% 54% “Thinking about environmental issues facing New Zealand, how serious do you think the following issues are?” (scale of 1 to 7 where 1 means not serious al all and 7 means they are extremely serious) New diseases being established in New Zealand Establishment of foreign pests such as spiders, ants, and mosquitoes in New Zealand The hole in the ozone layer 61% 7 “extremely serious” + 6 quite serious 60% 58% Pollution of lakes and rivers 55% Global warming 52% Waste disposal 48% Radiation from cell phones and cell phone sites 18% Source: UMR 2001. 107 The greenhouse effect and climate change 108 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 11 Local authority initiatives Local authorities can actively encourage reduction of local greenhouse gas emissions, increase in carbon sinks, and adaptation to the climate and sea level changes through their leadership, service provision and consent-granting roles. Regional and district councils can influence energy consumption patterns in such areas as urban design (and therefore transport demand) and activities requiring resource consents under the Resource Management Act. Reduction in the energy intensity of council services will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and can also save ratepayers money. The role of local government in meeting New Zealand’s climate change target is currently under consideration by Parliament’s Local Government and Environment Select Committee, which issued an interim report in December 2000 and called for submissions by 15 March 2001. Its interim recommendations are presented in Chapter 3 (section 3.2.1), and its final report was in preparation as of the end of August 2001. The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) runs an Energy-Wise Councils Partnership Programme, which involves councils pledging energy efficiency targets and provides access to the Crown Energy Efficiency Loan Scheme and a wealth of supportive information.1 Local authority members of the programme in 2000 were the Auckland, Christchurch, Hamilton, Nelson, Waitakere, and Wellington City Councils, Auckland Regional Council, and Environment Canterbury. An international coalition of municipal authorities, Cities for Climate Protection Campaign, is actively pursuing greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Its website can provide access to a model strategy, greenhouse gas auditing software, and other information to support councils wishing to take strong local action. New Zealand members of this coalition are the Hamilton, Waitakere, and Wellington City councils and the Waikato Regional Council. The Climate Alliance of European Cities is a collective of 900 cities with more ambitious reduction targets than the Kyoto Protocol or their national governments, and reductions of 25% in energy use over a decade or less have been common. The Energie Cités network includes sustainable initiatives in over 150 European municipalities. 2 11.1 Legal context Four principal Acts pertain to the powers of local authorities to encourage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand. • Local Government Act 1974 (e.g. energy efficiency of council services, waste management, management of parks and reserves) • Building Act 1991 (e.g. Building Code and supplementary guidelines) • Resource Management Act 1991 (e.g. plans and consents) • Transit New Zealand Act 1989 (e.g. transport plans and funding) 11.2 Local authority operations Central and local government authorities together consume about 2% of New Zealand’s energy in their operations. In 2000 it was estimated that councils use about $75 million per year of energy to provide or contract for services to ratepayers. Councils can have a direct role to play in improving the energy efficiency of such facilities as buildings, street lighting, recreation facilities, waste treatment plants, and vehicle fleets.3 The Local Government Act 1974 lists the “efficient and effective exercise of the functions, duties and powers of the components of local government” as a purpose of local government (s 37K(h), emphasis added). 1 http://www.eeca.govt.nz/default.asp International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives on http://www.iclei.org/co2/co2.htm ; Local Government and Environment Select Committee 2000, p.24. 3 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 2001, p. 12; and government section of http://www.eeca.govt.nz/default.asp 2 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Central Government has adopted the goal of a 15% reduction in energy use by the end of 2005, and invited local authorities to join them. This goal is not difficult to achieve if there is a will to succeed and an energy manager is appointed, as shown by Christchurch City Council, which has reduced its energy intensity by 25% (Box 8). This council also reduced the cost to ratepayers of council energy use from $73 to $62 per household over five years, despite rising energy prices.4 As managers of their own parks and reserves, district and regional councils have a significant role in protecting and enhancing carbon sinks in the form of vegetation. Councils can also enhance biomass on other lands through partnerships with the community and agencies such as the Department of Conservation and the Queen Elizabeth II National Trust. 11.3 Roading and transport Domestic transport is the largest and fastest growing contributor to New Zealand’s CO2 emissions (Figure 4.9). District and regional councils have a strong role to play in the design and provision of local transport facilities, as well as the design of urban form which can reduce the demand for car transport.5 A well-utilised public transport system requires significantly less fossil fuel for passenger transport than car-based alternatives. Local authorities can assist in the necessary co-ordination between central government (funding), regional councils (funding and planning), private transport operators (service provision) and road controlling authorities (priority road space and ancillary services) to find cost-effective alternatives to more roading. However, the adequacy and flexibility of Transfund New Zealand funding for fuel efficient alternatives is a matter of debate.6 In 1998 the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA) sponsored two seminars on the role of local authority policies in changing urban form as a way to improve transport energy efficiency, reduce CO2 emissions, and address other transport problems in New Zealand.7 EECA also compiles a two-monthly e-mail newsletter to support the national Sustainable Transport Network. Use of fossil fuels can be reduced through improving public transport, cycling and walking facilities, controlling car parking to create a disincentive for car commuting to the inner city, and redeveloping residential uses in the inner city. In Wellington, the recent growth in this type of accommodation has reduced the number of car trips to the CBD by about 290,000 per year. Land Transport Strategies in Auckland and Canterbury regions actively promote more energy efficient travel modes such as public transport, walking and cycling.4 A partnership between EECA and Lincoln University has produced successful internet-based rideshare software to support carpooling. The Lincoln rideshare programme has reduced CO2 emissions by 136 tonnes per year, petrol use by over 68,000 litres per year, and increased carpooling from 25% to 36% of journeys to and from the university. The software has now been obtained by the Wellington Regional Council and Auckland City Council, as well as two educational establishments and a major private sector employer.8 4 http://www.eeca.govt.nz/content/ew_government/councils/members.htm For example, services and housing spread far apart without adequate public transport infrastructure requires greater use of private vehicles and more fossil fuel consumption. 6 Local Government and Environment Select Committee 2000, p. 12. 7 Copies of the proceedings are available from EECA. 8 http://www.lincoln.ac.nz/rideshare ; EECA Annual Report 2000, p. 13 and http://www.eeca.govt.nz . Other bodies that had signed the licence agreement for the software as of 2000 were the University of Canterbury, Fisher & Paykel Industries Ltd. in Mosgiel, and the Eastern Institute of Technology in Napier. 5 110 The greenhouse effect and climate change 11.4 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Building codes and energy conservation For many years there have been attempts to improve the energy efficiency requirements in New Zealand’s National Building Code, which is enforced by district councils. New changes to clause H1 of the Code finally came into effect in 2001 (see section 9.7, p. 92). In addition to enforcing national standards, district councils can help to disseminate information about “eco building”, and thus encourage optimal energy efficiency of local buildings. Such buildings will continue to exert a positive influence on energy efficiency for decades to come. Waitakere City Council have developed the Sustainable Home Guidelines and a Better Building Code for clauses in commercial building specifications.9 The Auckland Regional Council and Hamilton Regional Council have collaborated with the Building Research Association of New Zealand (BRANZ) to produce the Easy Guide to Eco-Building.10 Other guidelines available for councils to direct clients to include Design for the sun: residential design guidelines for New Zealand available from EECA and Designing comfortable homes: guidelines on the use of glass, mass and insulation for energy efficiency available from the Cement and Concrete Association of New Zealand. BRANZ have certified architects in the Auckland, Hamilton, and greater Wellington regions as Greenhome Accredited Assessors as sources of expertise in this area.11 11.5 Waste management Organic materials going to landfills and wastewater plants are a significant source of methane. In 1999, landfills in New Zealand emitted an estimated 117,430 tonnes and wastewater handling added another 6,760 tonnes of methane, which is 21 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2.12 The majority of these facilities would have been under the control of a district council. The two main ways that a council can influence these methane emissions are reducing the amount of organic material going to waste and capturing the methane for use. The amount of organic materials going to landfill can be reduced by such methods as: municipal composting; regulations banning greenwaste in the landfill and thus encouraging private composting operations; and encouragement of home composting (such as through education and availability of at-cost bins). Ways to reduce the volume of sewage requiring treatment include encouragement of composting toilets and retention of septic tank systems (primarily in rural and semi-rural areas). Methane can be captured by designing or retrofitting landfills and wastewater plants to collect methane, and the gas can be made available for direct heat, electricity production, or running vehicles. Recycling of other waste materials (e.g. paper, glass, metal, plastic) reduces the energy required to produce consumer goods by reintroducing already extracted materials into the production cycle. Even for products where the fossil fuel emissions from extraction and processing of materials occur largely overseas, the impact on global climate change is still relevant. The benefits of recycling paper are further explored in the next chapter (Figure 12.2) District councils that have undertaken such initiatives in New Zealand include Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington (Box 8). 9 http://www.waitakere.govt.nz/ecocity/frameset.htm Available via BRANZ at http://www.branz.org.nz/branz/resources/ecobook.pdf 11 http://www.cca.org.nz ; http://www.branz.org.nz/branz/resources/greenhomeassessors.htm 12 Ministry for the Environment 2001, Table 10 sheet 2. Greenhouse warming potentials (CO2 vs. CH4); see Table 4.1. 10 111 The greenhouse effect and climate change 11.6 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Resource Management Act consents As grantors of land use and land disturbance consents under the Resource Management Act (RMA), councils have scope to minimise soil disturbance and loss of soil cover. The less disturbance to soil cover, the greater the retention of organic carbon in the soil and therefore the fewer CO2 emissions from local land-use. Likewise, district and regional plans may provide protections for forests and greenbelt areas which can serve as carbon reservoirs as well as community and ecological amenities. Encouragement of composting and mulching as part of waste reduction policy (see previous section) also enhances the carbon sink capacity of the soil. Theoretically, as grantors of air discharge consents under the RMA, regional councils should have the ability to help control local emissions of greenhouse gases. Under s 15 of the RMA, a discharge of any contaminant to air in contravention of a rule in a regional plan without a consent is illegal, except where a discharge can be shown to be a legal activity existing prior to the plan (s 20). This includes both discharges from industrial and trade premises (s 15(1)(c)) and from any place or source, movable or not (s. 15(2)). As the definition of “contaminant” includes any gas that “when discharged to air changes or is likely to change the physical, chemical, or biological condition of the air into which it is discharged” (s 2), it would apply to greenhouse gas emissions.13 However, the appropriateness of local authorities to actively control greenhouse gas emissions through air discharge consents under the RMA has been questioned. The International Energy Agency (OECD) review of New Zealand’s energy policy in 1997 stated: “The decentralisation of most of the responsibility for implementing the Act to the regional authorities makes it very difficult to ensure a consistent approach to addressing greenhouse gas emissions throughout the country. Inconsistent decisions might, for example, lead to the site for a proposed thermal power station being moved from one region to another to take advantage of regulatory differences. “Tackling small and mobile sources might be possible under the Act but would involve high transaction costs. “If regional authorities were empowered to use economic instruments (which is uncertain), an array of regional instruments would be less effective and more costly to administrate than a single national instrument. “For these reasons, the resource consent process under the Resource Management Act is not the most appropriate mechanism for addressing carbon emissions. It follows that the requirement for resource consents to take account of carbon emissions, which could lead to the consent being denied or conditions being attached to it, should be lifted.”14 There are a few examples of regional councils specifying consent conditions which mention CO2 and PFC emissions, and require consent holders to use “best technology”, limit emissions, and report annually (e.g. Huntly and Comalco).15 The Stratford Power Station is the only example of specific constraints on quantity of CO2 emissions and is discussed below (section 11.6.1). 13 The causal link between a person’s activity and a discharge, and whether they could control the discharge given reasonable precautions, have been addressed in RMA case law (Brookers Resource Management, s A15.04A). RMA case law has not yet addressed whether greenhouse gases are “contaminants” under the Act (Brookers Resource Management, ss A2.24.04-.06). 14 OECD 1996, pp. 83-85, 90-91. 15 H. Plume (MFE) pers comm 8/2001. 112 The greenhouse effect and climate change 11.6.1 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The Stratford Power Station case16 Currently the only known example of regional council specifically controlling greenhouse gas emissions under RMA consents is the Taranaki Combined Cycle Power Station in Stratford, whose air discharge consents are administered by the Taranaki Regional Council. The conditions relating to the discharge of CO2 were the result of a Ministerial “call in” under s 140 of the RMA, a Board of Enquiry, and Ministerial decision. The call-in was initiated because of concern that the projected CO2 emissions would significantly increase New Zealand’s national greenhouse gas emissions (some 5% of the total). Stratford Power Ltd are required by their air discharge permit to “avoid, remedy, or mitigate the effects of the additional amount of CO2 being discharged as a result of this consent” up to a maximum of 1.5 MT of CO2 per year and report to the Council and the Minister for the Environment on how they are fulfilling these obligations. The Minister required “additional” to be defined in relation to the net effect on national electricity sector emissions normalised for the average hydrological year, rather than emissions from the plant only. This occasions a significant delay in reporting as national data is collected and analysed. In contrast, the consent conditions recommended by the Board of Enquiry would have required ECNZ to establish some 4,000 ha. of forest per year for the 34 year life of the plant. This would provide a carbon sink to mitigate CO2 emissions. It was also proposed that ECNZ maintain the resulting 136,000 ha. forest estate in perpetuity with harvesting and replanting on a regular schedule.17 The plant commenced operation in February 1998, and has emitted over 1,548,410 tonnes of CO2 since that time. The base year against which the net electricity sector emissions are measured was higher than the subsequent two years of plant operation, so that no mitigation measures were required by the consent for those years (Table 11.1). One reason for this may be that the Taranaki Combined Cycle Power Station has significantly displaced use of the less efficient and coal-burning Huntly Power Station. Table 11.1: CO2 emissions from the Taranaki Combined Cycle Power Station, electricity sector emissions 1998-2000, and mitigation measures required under Resource Management Act consent Base year (2/97- 2/98) 1998-99 1999-00 CO2 emissions from the Taranaki Combined Cycle Power Station tonnes -704,605 843,805 CO2 emissions from the electricity sector (normalised for average hydrological flow) tonnes 8,489,446 3,929,351 4,165,592 mitigation of CO2 emissions required by the RMA consent -none none Sources: Taranaki Regional Council Stratford Power Ltd Combined Cycle Power Station Monitoring Programme Annual Report for 1998/99 and 1999/00; Stratford Power Ltd. Consent Compliance Report for 1998, 1998/99, and 1999/00. 16 Sources for this section: McSoriley 1995; Taranaki Regional Council Stratford Power Ltd Combined Cycle Power Station Monitoring Programme Annual Report for 1998/99 and 1999/00; Stratford Power Ltd. Consent Compliance Report for 1998, 1998/99, and 1999/00; Hamilton 2000. 17 McSoriley 1995, p. 2. 113 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 8 Examples of local authority initiatives: reducing greenhouse gas emissions NEW ZEALAND Auckland Regional Council Active promotion of increased use of more energy efficient travel modes such as public • transport, walking and cycling through their Regional Land Transport Strategy. The Buses First programme speeds up public transport and attracts passengers: includes • provision of bus lanes, traffic signal pre-emptions. EECA rideshare software purchased to facilitate local carpooling. • Co-sponsorship of Easy Guide to Eco-Building. • City-wide recycling programme. • Encouragement of composting plants at landfills and home composting. • Hamilton City Council Initiation of EnviroSchools, a model Council – schools partnership for environmental education. A focus is whole-of-school life, with energy use one of the key elements. Co-sponsorship of Easy Guide to Eco-Building. • • Christchurch City Council Appointed energy manager and increased the energy efficiency of its own operations (over five • years energy use has fallen 25% and energy bills reduced $2 million per year). Major greenwaste composting plant, active encouragement of household composting . • • Use of methane from sewage treatment plant for running council vehicles. City-wide household recycling collection programme. • Environment Canterbury Encourages low energy modes of transport (public transport, walking and cycling) and • advocacy of environmentally friendly vehicles through the Regional Land Transport Strategy. Waitakere City Council Publication of Sustainable Home Guidelines for the public and building professionals. Preparation of Better Building Code guidelines for public buildings, including energy efficiency. Preparation of the Green Print Purchasing Guidelines to encourage the reduction of environmental impacts of printing (paper, energy and other resources). • • • • Wellington City Council Initiation of bus-only lanes to speed inner-city bus transport and improved pedestrian facilities • to encourage walking. Shredding of all greenwaste from city street trees to create mulch, co-sponsor of major • greenwaste/biosolids composting plant, composting at both landfills. City-wide household recycling collection programme, subsidised by user-pays rubbish • collection. Collection of methane from the landfill. • Wellington Regional Council Support of electric trolley buses and electric trains for public transport (vs. diesel). Purchase of EECA rideshare software to facilitate local carpooling. Promoting the use of renewable energy sources and recovery of landfill gas. • • • continued, next page 114 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 (Box 8, continued from previous page) OVERSEAS Barcelona, Spain – solar energy A housing regulation was adopted in 1999 to require provision for installation of solar thermal collectors on new constructions and retrofitted buildings. Copenhagen, Denmark – urban design Over a number of decades urban growth has been managed along public transport corridors on development and transport nodes with green open spaces in between, in conjunction with a strong emphasis on cycleways and heavy taxes on cars. Denver (Colorado), USA – vehicle emission reductions Alternative Fuels Ordinance requires anyone owning a fleet of more than 30 vehicles to convert 10% of their fleet to clean-burning fuels. In 1997, 141 fleets complied. Ordinances on smoking and idling vehicles reduce emissions from individual cars through a citation system. City’s own Green Fleets programme has reduced CO2 emissions by 13% over 5 years. Dortmund, Germany – wind energy The municipal utility successfully sold bonds to the local community to finance a new 500kW wind turbine within the city limits. Portland (Oregon) and Davis (California), USA Creation of an energy-efficient city through planning controls: more compact development, guiding growth to more energy-efficient locations, active encouragement of public and non- motorised transport, and spatial layout to achieve energy efficiency. San Diego (California), USA – telecommuting Telecommuting programme for 200 city employees, who telecommute (work from home with telephone and electronic links) on average one day a week. Vehicle emissions for these workers have been reduced by 6373%. Direct benefits outweigh costs 5:1. Stockholm, Sweden – methane use in vehicles A partnership of public and private parties has resulted in methane from the local wastewater treatment plant being used to power 200 dual petrol/biogas cars in the city. Sources: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 2001, p. 13; http://www.waitakere.govt.nz ; http://www.iclei.org/co2/co2.htm ; Energie Cités http://www.agores.org/Publications/CityRES/fichesgblior.pdf ; Database of Municipal Success Stories http://www.pembina.org ; Controller and Auditor-General 2001, p. 101. 115 The greenhouse effect and climate change 116 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 12 Individual choices “What can I do, as just one person?” Climate change is a global long-term problem, and actions of individuals can seem irrelevantly small. However, it was also actions of individuals, all over the world over the last 150 years, that created the problem. It will be the cumulative actions of individuals around the world that will either make things worse, or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to an appropriate level. Every little action adds up, especially if you encourage your friends, family and neighbours to join you. Everything has an energy component Every consumer and transport choice has energy implications, especially in developed countries like New Zealand. Energy is “embodied” in all consumer goods and services, before you even buy and use them, through the energy it takes to extract and process raw materials and transport the finished product to you. Products designed to be thrown away have higher embodied energy that those designed to be reusable. It has been estimated that two-thirds of the “embodied” energy comes from choices that the industrial sector makes, and a third can be controlled directly by consumer choices.1 Some industrial choices can also be indirectly influenced by consumer demand. The fuel consumption by appliances and transport are related both to their design (how efficiently they use energy) and how you use them. Any energy that comes from fossil fuels involved in these equations contributes to climate change. In New Zealand virtually all of our transport and 27% of our electricity comes from fossil fuels. For imported consumer goods, the majority of embodied energy is likely to be from fossil fuels. Soil, vegetation, and compost are carbon sinks Many of us in New Zealand have control over a patch of land, and all of us have the option to get involved in resource management issues in the wider community. The greenery and soils in parks, forests, farms and home gardens can act as sinks for CO2. Maintaining greenery, using composts and mulch, and choosing to compost kitchen and garden scraps, either at home or through a local composting plant, not only enhances the local carbon sink potential, but recycling organic waste also reduces emissions of methane from the local landfill. Choosing to buy organic and sustainably farmed food supports people who are building the carbon reservoir potential of farmed soils. It also reduces the demand for pesticides and other agrochemicals which have a high fossil-fuel embodied energy. The following boxes summarise some of the actions recommended by agencies and experts to help reduce your personal contribution to climate change. 1 US Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/individual/index.html The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 9: Individual actions - TRANSPORT 3 The average family car produces about 2.2 tonnes a year of CO2 3 3 Every litre of petrol saved reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 2.5 kg 3 your choices count! “The Seven Habits of Highly Efficient Drivers” Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority 1. Avoid unnecessary driving One-third of car trips in New Zealand are under 2 km and two-thirds are under 6 km. To reduce the number of car trips, you can use public transport, walk or cycle, car pool, and plan ahead. 2. Drive with a smile Less aggressive driving can improve fuel economy by up to 30%. Accelerate smoothly, look ahead and avoid heavy braking and acceleration, keep to the speed limit, time your trip to avoid road congestion. 3. Maintain your vehicle Better vehicle maintenance can improve fuel consumption by 10-20%. Keep tyres inflated to correct pressure, have wheel alignment checked regularly, ensure that engine timing, spark plugs, and air filter are checked and maintained regularly. 4. Keep vehicle loads to a minimum An extra 50 kg increases fuel consumption by 2%, and wind drag from roof racks, windows, and sunroofs can use 5-10% more fuel. Remove unnecessary loads and roof racks not in use. 5. Turn off the extras Air conditioners can add 10% to fuel use and rear screen demisters 3-5%. Use air vents instead when possible. 6. Switch off the engine if idling for more than 30 seconds Allow time to restart your engine, rather than leave it idling unnecessarily. When starting from cold, drive off immediately, but be light on the accelerator for the first few minutes. 7. Longer term – choose the right vehicle Choose a vehicle that suits your needs. Find out the fuel economy of models you are considering. Generally the smaller the engine capacity, the more fuel efficient the vehicle. Large 4WDs do not have good fuel economy and are not good commuter or inner city vehicles. Plus Consider dual-fuel, electric, bio-fuel and fuel cell vehicles as they become available on the market. Source: brochure from Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (EECA). Average family car emission estimate from EECA Annual Report 1998, p. 9. The Australian estimate is 6 tonnes of greenhouse gas per year for the average family’s travel (may include other greenhouse gases and non-family car travel) (Australian Greenhouse Office, Global Warming – Cool it ! , p. 20). 118 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Bike or walking Figure 12.1: Greenhouse gas emissions from different forms of transport 0 Extra person on public transport 0.033 1.6 litre car, 4 people 0.05 0.08 4 litre car, 4 people 1.6 litre car, driver only Source: Australian Greenhouse Office, p. 21. 0.2 4 litre car, driver only 0.32 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 kg per person per km Box 10: How many trees do I have to plant to absorb the carbon emitted by my car? Assuming: you drive 40 years and 16,000 km per year; • your vehicle has a fuel efficiency of 11 km per litre of petrol; and • the petrol produces 0.86 kg carbon per litre; then • your lifetime carbon “footprint” for car transport would be 50 tonnes of carbon, or 1.25 tonnes/year. 3 Half of a hectare of production radiata pine forest A “steady state” forest of radiata pine in New Zealand on a 30-year harvest cycle contains about 112 tonnes of carbon/ha. You would have to establish the trees on non-forested land (e.g. pasture) and trees would have to be replanted after every harvest in perpetuity. 3 One third of a hectare of protected native forest Mature native forest contains at least 150 tonnes of carbon per hectare. This forest would need to be newly established or allowed to regenerate, and protected in perpetuity. Protecting already existing native forest will prevent loss of that existing carbon reservoir, but will not compensate for the new CO2 emissions from your car. Planting a tree does not remove carbon permanently, as the tree will eventually die or be harvested. Planting a forest can be permanent if it is kept in sustainable harvest or protected. However, it only provides a one-time benefit, whereas emissions are ongoing. Source: Maclaren 2000, p. 56. 119 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 11 : Individual actions - IN THE HOME 3 The average home creates more CO2 than the average car 3 3 70% of New Zealand houses were built before insulation became mandatory 3 your choices count! 3 hot water (the largest user of energy in the home) Turn the thermostat on your water heater down to 60 C. Use cold water cycles for washing clothes. Use short showers rather than long showers or a bath when possible. Install a low-flow shower head (yours is inefficient if it takes less than a minute to fill a 10 litre bucket). If you do not have a Grade A hot water cylinder (look for the "watermark" label), install a cylinder wrap (on average 42% and up to 70% of the energy used to heat hot water can be lost without insulation). Buy a gas, solar or heat pump type hot water heater. Repair dripping hot water taps (one dripping tap can waste as much as 5,000 litres a year). 3 lighting Turn off lights that won’t be needed for 5 minutes or more. Install compact fluorescent lights in high-use areas (see lighting box, next page). Use natural light whenever practical. Don't light unused rooms. 3 heating and insulation Only heat rooms that are being used. Weatherproof your house to minimise air leaks around doors and windows. Insulate the ceiling (up to 40% of house heating can escape through the ceiling). Block off any chimneys not in use. 3 appliances Look for an Energy Rating label when buying appliances. Minimise use of “standby power” (see box on next page): turn off at the wall if possible. Avoid unnecessary appliance use (e.g. run washers and dishwashers only when fully loaded). Dry clothes on a clothes line whenever possible. Buy an exhaust fan with automatic shutter doors for the kitchen or bathroom (reduce heat loss). 3 food and cooking Use a microwave oven when possible (see graph next page), but for boiling water use an electric jug. Put lids on pots, match element to pot size, simmer rather than rapidly boil, use pressure cookers. Thaw out frozen foods before starting to cook. If using an oven, cook more than one dish at a time; also, oven fans reduce energy use. Buy locally and seasonally grown food (others require more energy for production and transport). 3 recycling, composting, reducing waste Recycle paper, glass, metal, plastics, textiles and household goods when possible. Compost kitchen scraps and garden trimmings, and give the compost back to the soil. Buy food and other products in packaging that is reduced, reusable, recyclable, or has recycled content. 3 house design If designing a new home or doing alterations: Make maximum use of the sun's heat and light, and install solar water heating. Install insulation in ceiling, walls, and floor than exceeds the Building Code minimum requirements. Ensure hot water systems are efficient (minimise pipe length and install lagging for insulation). Locate homes near to work places or good public transport, to minimise transport energy. Sources: EECA (http://www.eeca.govt.nz ), Australian Greenhouse Office 2000, Consumer 2001, US Environmental Protection Agency (http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/emissions/individual/index.htm), World Resources Institute (http://www.safeclimate.net ). 120 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Figure 12.2: Energy efficiency information: standby power, fluorescent lights, cooking modes, and paper “Standby power” all those little standby lights, digital clocks, and keeping the power on for appliances, stereo systems, TVs, VCRs, computer screens, games machines… when added together consume: 2.9% of all electricity in New Zealand The OECD average is 10% of residential energy = a 60-watt light burning continuously in each household. q More than 40% of microwaves in New Zealand consume more power in standby mode than in cooking food. q More electricity is consumed when VCRs are in the standby mode than when actively recording or playing. Energy efficiency labels don’t give standby power information. Turn off at the wall when not required. Source: International Energy Agency 2001, Consumer 2001. Greenhouse gas emissions from different forms of cooking benefits of using Ñ fluorescent lights Ò Ñ (data for same amount of light) regular incandescent 75 W 750 hours compact fluorescent 18 W 10,000 hours Watts used Rated lamp life power per 10,000 hours 750 kWh 180 kWh electricity cost (@0.83/kWh) (@0.83/kWh) for 10,000 hrs. $62.25 $14.94 bulb costs for (13 @ $0.75) (1 @ $20) 10,000 hours $9.75 $20.00 Total life-cycle cost $72.00 $34.94 90% of the electricity used to run a regular incandescent light is lost as heat Microwave 0.03 Electric cooktop 0.07 Gas cooktop 0.10 0.00 0.15 kg greenhouse gas from cooking (estimated average to cook vegetables) Source: Australian Greenhouse Office, p. 12. Adjusted for New Zealand mix of electricity sources (90.2% fossil fuels in Australia, 27.1% in New Zealand). Source: Rocky Mountain Institute, http://www.rmi.org. These are USA prices. The same calculations can be done with local prices. Paper Papermaking uses 4% of the world’s energy. Every tonne of paper recycled saves about 17 trees, 4,100 kW of electricity, 26,500 litres of water, and 27m3 of landfill space. q Producing a tonne of paper takes as much energy as producing a tonne of iron or steel. q Making a tonne of virgin paper takes 2 to 3.5 tonnes of trees, but making 100% recycled paper takes just over 1 tonne of paper. Conserving and recycling paper saves energy and carbon sinks. Source: Worldwatch Institute, http://www.safeclimate.net/action (US measurements converted to metric) 121 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Box 12: Individual actions - AT WORK 3 Four PCs left running continuously cause as much CO2 to be emitted per year (from generation of electricity to run them) as the average family car. 3 3 Lighting consumes 30 – 50% of energy used by buildings. 3 your choices count! 3 lighting Turn off lights that won’t be needed for 5 minutes or more. Install compact fluorescent or triphosphor lights and reflectors, especially in high use areas. Use natural light whenever practical. Clean light fittings as a regular part of maintenance (dirt can lower output by over 20%). 3 computers Switch off your computer screen if away from your desk for more than 25 minutes. Switch off your computer overnight and over weekends. A computer is not damaged by turning on & off, uses no extra energy to start up. Screen savers do not save energy. Activate the Energy Star provisions in your computer.1 3 printers & other equipment Turn off when not required, especially overnight and weekends (check with IT manager if networked). Use two-sided copying and printing. When buying new equipment, select equipment with this option. 3 3 paper Establish paper recycling programme and use recycled content paper. Use emails and electronic filing instead of hard copy where possible. Use two-sided printing for internal and external publications. transport Follow the efficient driving tips in Box 9, for commuting and fleet management. Consider telecommuting and flexible work hours where possible. Use the stairs rather than the lift when possible. For vehicle fleets, have an energy management programme (information and advice from EECA). Encourage carpools and vanpools for larger businesses (rideshare programme available from EECA). 3 heating & cooling Make sure the air conditioning system is turned off at night. Don’t use personal heaters in centrally heated offices. 3 1 management Set energy management policy and objectives, conduct a detailed energy audit, and implement and monitor a plan of action. Join the Energy-Wise Business programme. Information and advice available from EECA. Designate and adequately support an energy manager. Return energy savings to new initiatives to help motivate staff (e.g. new facilities, donations to charity). For Windows: Screen Saver tab in Display under Control Panel; In “Energy saving features” set low power standby to 15 minutes and monitor at 25 minutes. For more details contact EECA or Australian EnergyStar site (http://www.energystar.gov.au ) Source: EECA publications e.g. Energy-wise tip sheets; Energy-wise Office Equipment; Improving office lighting and reducing energy costs; Energy-wise tips for efficient building operation (http://www.eeca.govt.nz ) 122 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Glossary albedo The ability to reflect light. In the climate change context, the albedo of the Earth is higher with snow, ice or cloud cover, reflecting solar radiation instead of allowing it to be absorbed as heat which can then contribute to the greenhouse effect. Annex I Parties Countries that are listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC: this includes New Zealand and 41 other developed countries. anthropogenic Caused by human activity. assigned amount The amount of greenhouse gas emissions allowed for each Party to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period 2008-2012. For most countries it equates to 1990 gross emissions. Additional assigned amount can be gained through LULUCF carbon sinks, or lost through emissions from LULUCF, since 1990. biomass Living matter. In the carbon cycle context, it is the plants and animals which contain carbon as part of their body structure. In the renewable energy context, it is wood, alcohol, and other energy sources from plant materials. carbon sink A process which removes CO2 from the atmosphere where it cannot contribute to the greenhouse effect. Sinks include growing forests, soils, and the ocean. A carbon reservoir is a store of carbon, such as a mature forest (see Chapter 5). carbon sink credit Additional assigned amount (allowed emissions) due to documented humaninfluenced carbon sequestration since 1990 in agreed land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities. Subject to agreed rules, it is anticipated that surplus credits could be sold in domestic or international carbon trading markets. CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) A mechanism allowed under the Kyoto Protocol for developed countries to earn credit for greenhouse gas emission reductions which occur in undeveloped (non- Annex I) countries as a result of their sponsorship (see section 9.8). CH4 Methane, a key greenhouse gas primarily from agricultural activities (mostly livestock and rice paddies), landfills, and some fossil fuel combustion, as well as natural sources such as swamps. climate change Any change in climate or key variable (e.g. temperature, rainfall, wind, sea levels and sea temperatures) over time spans greater than a decade. Shorter term changes are termed “climate variability”. CO2 Carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas primarily from fossil fuel burning and land use change. Natural sources include respiration and decomposition. COP Conference of Parties, under the UNFCCC. EECA Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, the principal agency in New Zealand involved in promoting energy efficiency and renewable energy. GDP Gross Domestic Product: a measure of the total monetary value of goods and services produced by an economy, and a partial indication of living standards. “Nominal” GDP is the value for that year in that year’s dollars. “Real” GDP is used for comparisons between years and is adjusted for inflation and cost of living changes. 123 The greenhouse effect and climate change global warming Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The predicted warming of the global climate due to the greenhouse effect. The term “climate change” is preferred, as it also includes other predicted climate effects (e.g. droughts, floods, storms, local temperature variability including cooling, shorter winters, melting ice, and rising sea levels). greenhouse effect The trapping of heat near the Earth’s surface by gases that absorb and re-emit infrared (heat) radiation. These gases are from both human and natural sources, and without the greenhouse effect the Earth’s temperature would be about 30°C colder than it is today. Gg, Gt Gg = Gigagrams (one billion grams), Gt = Gigatonnes (one billion tonnes). One Gg is equivalent to one kT (kilotonne = 1,000 tonnes). IEA International Energy Agency, a subsidiary body of OECD. IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established by UNEP and WHO. It is comprised of hundreds of scientists and government representatives. Their Summary for Policymakers reports are approved line-by-line in plenary sessions with usually over 100 government representatives. The reports are therefore considered conservative. Kyoto Protocol An agreement under the UNFCCC, signed in 1997 but not yet in effect as the required full ratification has not taken place (see section 1.3). J I (Joint Implementation) A mechanism allowed under the Kyoto Protocol for Annex I Party countries to share costs, credits, and projects for greenhouse gas emission reduction. LULUCF Land-Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry activities which may contribute greenhouse gas emissions or act as carbon sinks or reservoirs, and are subject to reporting under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Certain LULUCF activities will also be available for emissions accounting under the Protocol (e.g. afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation under Article 3.3). N2O Nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas primarily from agricultural activity. Natural sources include organic wastes. OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. New Zealand is a member. ppmv Parts per million by volume: a measure of gas concentration in the atmosphere. Ten parts per million means that there are a million molecules of air for ten molecules of the gas measured. Also expressed as ppm. renewable energy Energy that is from naturally renewable sources within the human planning timeframe. This includes solar, wind, biomass, and tidal energy. Fossil fuels are considered to be non-renewable: while they are from natural sources, they take millions of years to form in the Earth from organic matter deposits. Nuclear fuel is not from natural sources. sequestration In the climate change context, lodging of carbon from CO2 into carbon sinks. UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 124 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Appendix A: Summary of key points from publicly released Cabinet papers on climate change policy as at 23 January 2001 • The Government intends to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in mid - 2002. Demonstrable steps toward meeting the Kyoto protocol commitments for 2008-2012 will need to be made by 2005. (CBC Min (01) 1/1, a) • The Government intends to consult widely with industry, scientific and environmental groups, local government, and Mäori in the process of developing climate change policy. (CAB (00) M 25/4A ; CBC Min (01)1/2, a(ii) and h) • A communications strategy will be developed to promote public awareness of climate change and the Government’s policy response. The strategy will inform businesses and individuals how they can be involved in both policy development and action to reduce greenhouse gases. Promotion of pre-2008 behaviour change is being considered. (CAB (00) M 25/4A; CBC Min (01)1/2,d; CBC Min (01) 3/4, h and i). • A 1990 report on the likely climate change impacts to New Zealand will be updated and released as a short summary report for public release [originally due April 2001: published July 2001]. Stage II (socio-economic analysis) will be funded during 2001/02. (CBC Min (01) 1/3) • The Government seeks to meet the 2008-2012 obligations under the Kyoto Protocol in a manner that demonstrates environmental integrity and leadership while keeping as low as practicable the social and economic costs of measures to achieve those obligations. Domestic emissions trading is seen as providing the greatest assurance of achieving this, and will be a central policy measure. Pilot emissions trading will be further considered after the decision on a carbon charge. (CBC Min (01) 1/7, a, c, and d; CBC Min (01) 3/4, r) • In principle some proportion of New Zealand’s forest sink credits, expected to be internationally tradable by 2008-2012, should accrue to those undertaking the activities. (CBC Min (01) 1/8) • Decisions on a carbon charge will only be taken as part of the current overall tax review process, to be reported back to Ministers in September 2001. If there is a decision to proceed, it would not be implemented until after the next election. If industries enter into Negotiated Greenhouse Agreements before the charge is levied and reduce their emissions, this would be recognised in the design and application of the charge. (CBC Min (01) 3/4, j - p) • As road transport generates 39% of New Zealand’s CO2 emissions and this is likely to increase without policy intervention, Cabinet has requested a series of reports on themes including land transport pricing, sustainable alternatives to road transport, and vehicle efficiency standards. (CBC Min (01) 1/4) • As agricultural emissions of non-CO2 gases generate about 55% of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions and there are virtually no practical reduction options available, officials have been directed to report on strategies to promote research. (CBC Min (01) 1/5) • Vote: Research, Science and Technology will be re-focussed to better achieve climate change policy objectives, to be reflected in the Foundation for Research Science and Technology’s annual purchase agreement from 1 July 2001. Improvements are required in coordination, private sector investment, technology transfer, maintaining the research skill base, and implementing social policy objectives. (POL (00) M 35/5) • Officials will report back by 30 June 2001 on a national waste minimisation strategy, which has potential to have energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission benefits. (CBC Min (01) 1/1, e) • The Government is committed to leading the task of identifying, supporting and capitalising on the economic opportunities presented by New Zealand’s climate change programme, and considers that taking action now will improve New Zealand’s economic, environmental, and social position in (CBC Min (01)1/2, e(v) and e(viii)) respect of the rest of the world. 125 The greenhouse effect and climate change 126 Parliamentary Library, August 2001 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Selected references Note: other references in footnotes throughout the text Australian Greenhouse Office, 2000, Global Warming - Cool it! A home guide to reducing energy costs and greenhouse gases Basher, Reid, 1998, The 1997/98 El Nino Event: Impacts, Responses and Outlook for New Zealand, http://www.morst.govt.nz/publications/elnino/index.htm Basher, Reid E. and Pittock, A. Barrie (eds), 1998, Australasia chapter, IPCC Special Report on the Regional Impacts of Climate Change An Assessment of Vulnerability, http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional/058.htm Bertram, Geoff, 2001, Comments on "The Economic Effects of Low-Level Carbon Charges", http://www.climatechange.govt.nz Consumer, 2001, Save Money, Warm Up, Feel Better, Consumer magazine July 2001, pp. 20-23. Controller and Auditor-General, 2001, Meeting International Environmental Obligations, http://www.oag.govt.nz/homepagefolders/auditofficereports/mieo/mieo.htm Crowley, Thomas J., 1996, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record, http://www.gcrio.org/CONSEQUENCES/winter96 Depledge, Joanna, 1999, Coming of age at Buenos Aires: the climate change regime after Kyoto, Environment, September 1999 Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority, 2001a, Draft National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Strategy Environmental Defence Society Inc, 2000, Report on United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Sixth Conference of the Parties, The Hague, November 2000, http://www.eds.org.nz/haguereport.htm Ford-Robertson J.B., Maclaren J.P. and Wakelin S.J., 2000, The role of carbon sequestration as a response strategy to global warming, with a particular focus on New Zealand, In Gillespie and Burns 2000, Climate Change in the South Pacific: Impacts and Resources in Australia, New Zealand, and Small Island States Gillespie, Alexander and Burns, William C.J., 2000, Climate Change in the South Pacific: Impacts and Responses in Australia, New Zealand, and Small Island States, Kluwer Academia Publishers, London. Gillespie, Alexander, 2000, New Zealand and the Climate Change Debate: 1995-1998, In Gillespie & Burns 2000 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, 1999, Climate change and its impacts: stabilisation of CO2 in the atmosphere, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/B1999/contents.html Hamilton, Kirsty, 2000, New Zealand Climate Policy Between 1990 and 1996: A Greenpeace Perspective, In Gillespie & Burns 2000. Harvey, Martin, 2001, Analysis of the rate and corresponding sectoral, distributional and competitiveness impacts of a carbon charge, and revenue recycling options, http://www.climatechange.govt.nz Horgan, G.P., 1999, Economic Issues in the Planting of New Zealand Native Trees, In conference proceedings Native Trees for the Future, University of Waikato 8-10 October 1999, pp. 76-79 127 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Infometrics Consulting, 2001, The Economic Effects of Low-Level Carbon Charges, http://www.climatechange.govt.nz Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2000, Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry: Summary for Policymakers, Cambridge University Press, or http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/land_use/001.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001a, Climate Change 2001: the Scientific Basis, IPCC Working Group I Third Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers (final draft), http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001a, Summary for Policymakers: A Report of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001b, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC Working Group II Third Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers, Draft 1902-2001, approved in Geneva 13-16 February 2001., http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001c, Summary for Policymakers: Special Report on Emission Scenarios, A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001d, Technical Summary: A report accepted by Working Group I of the IPCC but not approved in detail, http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001d, Technical Summary, Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, A Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://www.ipcc.ch International Energy Agency (OECD), 2000a, CO2 Emissions from fuel combustion 1971-1998 International Energy Agency (OECD), 2000b, Dealing With Climate Change; Policies and Measures in IEA member Countries, IEA/OECD, Paris International Energy Agency (OECD), 2000c, Emission Baselines: Estimating the Unknown International Energy Agency, 2001, Things That Go Blip in the Night: Standby Power and How to Limit It, http://www.iea.org/public/studies/blip.htm Local Government and Environment Select Committee, 2000, Inquiry into the Role of Local Government in Meeting New Zealand's Climate Change Target: interim report of the Local Government and Environment Select Committee, New Zealand House of Representatives, December 2000, Shoulder no. I.9A Maclaren, J. Piers, 2000, Trees in the Greenhouse: the Role of Forestry in Mitigating the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect, Forest Research Bulletin no. 219, Forest Research Institute, Rotorua McSoriley, John, 1995, Climate Change, Forestry and the New Zealand Resource Management Act 1991, Unpublished conference paper Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2001, A National Exotic Forest Description as at 1 April 2000, http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/primaryindustries/forestry/nefd2000/ntitle.htm Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry 2001, New Zealand Forestry Statistics 2000, http://www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/primaryindustries/forestry/nzstats2000/title.htm Ministry for the Environment, 1998, Climate Change: More than just carbon dioxide. Significance, sources and solutions for non-CO2 greenhouse gases in New Zealand, Ministry for the Enivronment, March 1998 Ministry for the Environment, 1999, Climate Change Domestic Policy Options Statement, a Consultation Document, Ministry for the Environment, January 1999 128 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 Ministry for the Environment 2000, Implementation of Article 3(3) of the Kyoto Protocol: Submission by New Zealand, 1 August 2000, http://www.mfe.govt.nz Ministry for the Environment, 2001, National Inventory Report, New Zealand Greenhouse Gas Inventory 1990-1999, including Common Reporting Format for 1999, as reported April 2001 Ministry of Economic Development, 2000, New Zealand Energy Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-1999 Ministry of Transport, 1998, National Transport Statement, Ministry of Transport, Wellington Natural Resources Canada, 2000, The Capture and Storage of Carbon Dioxide Emissions: a significant opportunity to help Canada meet its Kyoto targets, Office of Energy Research and Development, Ottawa, Ontario, October 2000 New Zealand Climate Change Programme, 2001a, Forest Sinks and the Kyoto Protocol - An Information Document, http://www.climatechange.govt.nz New Zealand Climate Change Programme, 2001b, Climate Change Impacts on New Zealand, http://www.climatechange.govt.nz Newell, Peter, ca. 1997, Climate Politics in Western Europe: Regional and Global Dimensions, Climate Network Europe, http://www.ecouncil.ac.cr/rio/focus/report/english/climate.htm OECD, 1999, Environmental Data Compendium 1999, OECD, Paris OECD, 1996, Environmental performance reviews: New Zealand, (excerpts) OECD, 1999, Nominal tax rates of environmentally related taxes - by country (individual print-outs for Australia, Denmark, Ireland, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, UK), http://www.oecd.org/env/policies/taxes/index.htm OECD, 2000, Ancillary Benefits and Costs of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation; Proceedings of an IPCC CoSponsored Workshop, 27-29 March 2000, Washington D.C. Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment , 1992, Sustainable Energy Management in New Zealand: improvements required in Government policy Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment , 2000, Getting More from Less: A review of progress on energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives in New Zealand, PCE February 2000 Schloerer, Jan, 1997, Climate change: some basics, University of Ulm, ftp://rtfm.mit.edu/pub/usenet/news.answers/sci/climate-change/basics Soon, Willie, Baliunas, Sallie L., Robinson, Arthur B., and Robinson, Zachary W., 1999, Environmental effects of increase atmospheric carbon dioxide, Climate Research 13:149-164 Tiwari, Dirgha Nidhi, 2000, Towards a Framework for the Implementation of the Clean Development Mechanism in the Agricultural Sector of Developing Countries, In FAO 2000, Two essays on climate change and agriculture; a developing country perspective, FAO Economic & Social development Paper no. 145,FAO, Rome Transport and Environment Select Committee, 1998, Inquiry into the Environmental Effects of Road Transport, New Zealand House of Representatives, Shoulder no. I.12B UMR Research Ltd., 2001, Climate Change Issues: A Study of Public Awareness and Level of Concern, New Zealand Climate Change Programme, http://www.climatechange.govt.nz UNFCCC Secretariat, 1997, Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html UNFCCC Secretariat, 1999, New Zealand: Report on the in-depth review of the second national communication of New Zealand, http://www.unfccc.int/ 129 The greenhouse effect and climate change Parliamentary Library, August 2001 UNFCCC Secretariat, 2000, National Communications from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data from 1990 to 1998, FCCC/SBI/2000/11, 5 September 2000 UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001a, Report of the Conference of the Parties on the First part of its Sixth session, held at The Hague from 13 to 25 November 2000: Addendum, Part Two: Action Taken by the Conference of the Parties at the First Part of its Sixth Session, document FCCC/CP/2000/Add.2, 4 April 2001, http://www.unfccc.de/ UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001b, Data tables - emissions 1990 and 1998, via http://www.unfccc.de/resource/ghg/tempemis2.html UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001c, Decision 5/CP.6, Implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (unedited version), FCCC/CP/2001/L.7, http://www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop6secpart/l07.pdf UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001d, Press Release: Governments adopt Bonn agreement on Kyoto Protocol rules, 23 July 2001, http://www.unfccc.de UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001e, Review of the implementation of commitments and of other provisions of the Convention: Preparations for the First Session of the Conference of the parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto protocol (Decision 8/CP.4), Decision 5/CP.6: Implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action , FCCC/CP/2001/L.7, 24 July 2001, http://www.unfccc.de UNFCCC Secretariat, 2001f, Preparations For The First Session Of The Conference Of The Parties Serving As The Meeting Of The Parties To The Kyoto Protocol (Decision 8/CP.4), Matters Relating To Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry: Draft Decision proposed by the Co-Chairmen of the negotiating group, Draft Decision-/CP.6, Land-use, land-use change and forestry, http://www.unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop6secpart/l11.pdf United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTD), 1998, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading: defining the principles, modalities, rules and guidelines for verification, reporting and accountability, http://www.unctad.org/en/pub/ United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 1998, Press Kit: Buenos Aires 1998, Fourth session of the Conference of the Parties UNFCCC 2-13 November 1998, http://www.unep.ch/iuc/submenu/press/climate/cop4kit.htm US Environmental Protection Agency, 1999, Progress Report on the EPA Acid Rain program, EPA430-R99-011, November 1999, http://www.epa.gov/acidrain World Resources Institute, UN Development Programme, UN Environment Programme, and the World Bank , 2000, World Resources 2000-2001 People & Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life, World Resources Institute, Washington DC, http://www.wri.org/wr2000 Selected websites IPPC home page (electronic copies of reports): http://www.ipccc.ch New Zealand Government Climate Change programme: http://www.climatechange.govt.nz Ministry for the Environment: http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate.htm New Zealand climate data and model projections: http://www.katipo.niwa.cri.nz/ClimateFuture Ministry of Economic Development (energy data, emissions trading): http://www.med.govt.nz/ers/environment.html 130