Download climate in change nature and society challanges for the barents

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Side 1
2007
CLIMATE
CLIMATE IN
IN CHANGE
CHANGE
NATURE
NATURE AND
AND SOCIETY
SOCIETY CHALLANGES
CHALLANGES FOR
FOR THE
THE BARENTS
BARENTS REGION
REGION
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Side 2
BARENTSwatch
BarentsWatch 2007 is published by
Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd
with support from the Norwegian Ministry
of Environment, NorACIA, Eni Norway
and Statoil. Norwegian, English and
Russian editions are published.
Director:
Ingvild Wartiainen
Editor:
Ingvild Wartiainen
Cover photo:
Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica)
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
Graphic design
Tiina Monsen, Tvers Kommunikasjon
Print:
Birkeland trykkeri AS
Editorial Work completed September
2007
Translators:
From Norwegian to English:
Bioforsk Svanhovd
From Norwegian to Russian:
Storvik & CO, Svetlana Kurthi
ISSN 0806 – 5411
Usnea longissima in Yugid Va National
Park in northern Ural, Russia
©Bjørn Frantzen, Bioforsk
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Side 3
CONTENTS
The climate is changing, but how will it affect people and
nature in the Barents Region?, IngvildWartiainen . . . . . . . . . . .5
Global climate change results in large regional variations,
Ingvild Wartiainen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Coming up on thin ice, JoLynn Carroll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
Do we need snow and ice?, Pål Prestrud . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
How permanent is the permafrost?, Galina Mazhitova . . . . .12
Global Warming: Reality or Pseudo-Serious Problem?,
Valery Barcan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
Knowledge of Snow, Weather and the Landscape
– Snowchange Years with the Sámi, Tero Mustonen . . . . . . .16
When access to winter pastures disappears into
the ocean… , Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18
What does climate change mean for Finnish Lapland?,
Tapio Tynys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
Tree-Rings - A Living Diary of Climate?,
Heikki Kauhanen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22
Arctic plants are well adapted to climate changes,
Kristine Bakke Westergaard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
Use of satellite imagery to monitor nature,
Stein Rune Karlsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26
Focus on Climate in Norwegian – Russian School project,
Ingvild Wartiainen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
The climate changes demand robust management,
Jørgen Randers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30
Northern municipalities vulnerability to climate change,
Kyrre Groven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
Norwegian Agriculture and Climate Change,
Arne Grønlund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
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Red-throated Diver (Gavia stellata)
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
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Side 4
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Side 5
THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING,
but how will it affect people and
nature in the Barents Region?
The climate has become very unstable because
of human activity, and the changes we observe
happens much faster than predicted by all the
climate models. The drift ice around the North
Pole is melting in a frightening pace, resulting
in problems to more than seal and polar bear.
Extreme weather cause enormous destructions
of big economic costs and eliminates the economic basis to many people in poor countries.
Traditionally rich agricultural areas are lost
because of extreme drought or precipitation.
Even relatively small increases in temperature
or sea level might be catastrophic to many areas
around the world, but what about us up in the
North and in the Barents Region? How will our
everyday life be affected? And how will nature
and wildlife manage?
In this issue of Barentswatch we want to
present precise and easily understood information about what effect the ongoing climate changes will have in the Barents Region. Articles with
concrete examples on what challenges nature
and communities in the Barents region may
expect in the future are presented. Some changes we are already experiencing, others will probably be apparent in shorter or medium-term
time, while it for some expected changes only
exists qualified guesses. Fortunate external conditions like geographical position and ground
conditions make the expected changes here in
the Barents Region small compared to the polar
area, low-lying areas and areas around the equa-
tor. Still considerable changes, which may
cause changes in biological diversity and make
problems to commerce and infrastructure, will
occur.
As this climate issue indicates there are still
they who believe that the climate changes are a
result of sun storms, and that people do not have
any influence on the climate. This in contradiction to the extensive international unity, fronted
by the U.N. climate panel that the causes for the
ongoing climate changes by far is caused by
human activities.
The slogan “Act locally, think globally” do
also apply to the subject of climate. To create
involvement and understanding about the topic,
and visualise the need for changes in the pattern
of consumption and other initiatives to lower
the emission of climate gasses, it is important to
focus on local changes, but think globally at the
same time. Those who will be most affected by
the climate changes are also the ones contributing least to the greenhouse gas emission. Thus
the distribution of the catastrophes is “unfair”.
Good Reading!
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Side 6
By Ingvild Wartiainen,
Bioforsk Soil and Environment Svanhovd
Global climate change results in
LARGE REGIONAL
VARIATIONS
The global climate changes seem to provide more of everything. Increased average
temperature, more precipitation, more drought, more heat waves and more intense cyclones and
hurricanes. At the same time the sea level is rising, because warmer water demands
more space and because inland ice in the Arctic is melting. Human activities, with high
fossil fuel consumption, intense land-use and changes in use of area have resulted in the
present concentrations of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide far
exceeding the pre-industrial values (ab. 1750). What regional effect these changes will
have depends in a great extend on where you are on the planet.
Important international
research reports
During recent years especially two reports give
new and important information about the ongoing global climate change, and describe consequences of the changes to humans and nature.
This is the fourth report from the UN climate
6
panel “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change” (IPCC) that will be published within
2007 and the report prepared by the Arctic
Council ”Arctic Climate Impact Assessment”
(ACIA) published in 2004. The UN climate
report consists of three sub reports together
with a synthesis report that summarize the con-
clusions from the three sub reports. The sub
reports deal with; 1. The scientific understanding of climate changes, 2. The effects of climate
changes on nature and society, and adaptations
efforts, 3. Efforts and means to fight climate
changes and decrease dumping of greenhouse
gasses. While the IPPC report describes the
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Side 7
Changes in the snow conditions will probably have
an unfavourable effect on the reindeer husbandry.
©Ragnar Våga Pedersen, Bioforsk
global situation, the ACIA report focus on the
Arctic and also describes the impact of the climate changes on the Barents Region. Both
reports base the probability for the different
influences to take place on an extensive data
material consisting of field surveys, laboratory
experiments, observed climate changes and theoretical modeling.
Effect of climate changes on the
nature in the Barents Region.
During the last 30 years there has been a
decrease of the yearly average cover of sea ice
by 8%, or almost 1 million km2. The sea ice has
also become considerable thinner. Melting of
sea ice do not result in rising of the sea level,
but an ice free polar sea will absorb more radiation and contribute to an increase of the global
warming. However melting of the ice sheets on
Greenland and Antarctica has increased the sea
level by 0,4 mm per year from 1993 to 2003.
Probably low-lying coastal areas will experience an increased frequency of storm surge as a
result of rising of the sea level, simultaneously
there will be more coastal erosion and increased
salinity in bays and river mouth.
It is very likely that there will be a northerly migration of plant and animal species, some
tundra areas will disappear from the mainland
and the tree line will move north and increase in
altitude in the mountains. Increased temperature will probably result in more damage on the
forest as a consequence of insect attacks.
Overgrowing of open landscapes (the tundra)
will decrease the nesting area to many birds and
the grazing land to many land animals. It is
expected that rare animals may be lost and
species common at the present may decrease
considerably. Many of the animals specialized
on cold climate might be replaced by species
migrating northward because of the warmer climate. To some bird, fish, and butterfly species
such displacement is already under way.
Warmer and more humid climate might also
result in reduced berry production, and berry
plants might be less common.
The effect on commercial practice
in the Barents Region
The extent of snow covering the land areas in
the Arctic has been reduced by about 10% during the last 30 years. Reduced snow cover and
changes in the snow conditions will probably
represent an unfavourable situation to the reindeer husbandry. Most likely traditional harvesting of animals will be more risky and unpredictable. The climate changes are predicted to
increase the potential for commercial agriculture northward throughout this century, by the
increase of the yearly average crop yield and the
possibility for more thermophilous (heat loving) species to be cultivated. Probably the
marine access to oil, gas and mineral resources
will be better as the sea ice is reducing its
extent, while the ground-based access to
recourses most likely will be more difficult
many places because shorter periods of frozen
ground make transport and accessibility more
complicated.
Reduction in the extent of sea ice will most
likely result in an increase in the North Atlantic
and Arctic fisheries. The fisheries will be based
on traditional species of fish, but also on southern species expected to move northward. The
sea farming industry will probably profit from a
faint warming of the water by faster growing of
the fish, but at a little stronger warming the temperature tolerance to the fish might be exceeded. Warmer water might also result in more frequent algal blooms and an increased frequency
of diseases. Melting of the sea ice in the Polar
Sea will make new and shorter transport routes
between Europe, Asia and America accessible,
while unpredictable ice conditions might create
difficulties to the shipping traffic.
This article is focused on the expected climate changes in the Barents Region, and is
mainly based on the fourth report from IPPC
and the ACIA report. To get information about
other regions one must refer to these reports.
The Barents Region is one of the areas where
the climate changes seem to have little influence compared to many other areas in the
world, but there will still be large changes in
nature compared to the present situation, and
there might also be substantial challenges to the
industry and infrastructure.
Cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus) is today
a common species in the Barents Region, but
changes in climate may result in a decrease of
this popular berry plant. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
IPCC
UN climate panel “Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change” (IPCC) was
founded by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) and UN
Environmental Program (UNEP) in 1988.
So far IPCC have published four reports
describing the environmental situation of
the world. The latest was published in
2007. The three earlier main reports
were published in 1990, 1995 and
2001. The reports are said to be the
most important professional foundation to
the international politic of climate.
Facts about the IPCC report 2007
• A total of 800 contributing authors and
450 main authors from 130 countries
participate in the preparation of the
fourth report.
• 2500 scientific experts participate in
the hearing processes carried out when
the Panel on Climate Change writes the
report.
• The experts participating in the work
are chosen by virtue of their professional
expertise and are mainly from universities,
academies, scientific institutions and
meteorological institutes.
For more information
UN climate panel (IPCC):
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Norwegian Pollution Control Authority
(SFT) has a coordinating role towards
IPCC:
http://www.sft.no/tema_40241.aspx
ACIA
Monitoring of the arctic environment
“The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment
Programme”, is one of the fields of activity of the Arctic Council, which is a circumpolar cooperation where Norway,
Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland,
USA, Canada and Russia, in addition to
representatives from the groups of arctic
indigenous people participate. Arctic
Council was founded in 1996 as an
expansion of the arctic environmental
cooperation.
In November 2004 the report “Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment” (ACIA) was
proposed. Almost 300 scientists from all
arctic countries took part in the formulation of the report, where they documented
that the Arctic suffer some of the fastest
and strongest climate changes on earth.
For more information:
Arctic Council:
http://www.arctic-council.org/
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA):
http://www.acia.uaf.edu/
Other literature:
NINA report no 262. Nature in change.
Terrestrial nature monitoring in 2006:
Ground vegetation, epiphytes, rodents
and birds. Erik Framstad (red.)
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Side 8
By JoLynn Carroll, Akvaplan-niva
Email: [email protected]
Coming up
ON THIN ICE
The current melting of the
polar ice cap has reached a
level that is well outside of
natural cycles over the past
800,000 years. This trend is
caused by global warming,
threatening not just polar
bears but the entire arctic
marine ecosystem. Long-term
joint Russian-Norwegian
research in the Barents Sea is
providing new insights into
global warming impacts for
the Barents Sea ecosystem
The Barents Sea is one of the most dynamic and
productive ecosystems in the world, supporting
food webs that culminate in large populations
of seabirds, mammals, and species targeted by
regional fisheries. This highly productive arctic
marginal sea may be particularly sensitive to
climate perturbations due to expected disproportionate warming of the Arctic. Recent observations have revealed significant reductions in
sea ice cover and thickness and increased air
and ocean temperatures, indicating that we may
already be seeing the early warning signs of an
ecosystem on the verge of dramatic changes.
These changes will lead to potentially serious
consequences for the sustainable management
and development of the natural and socioeconomic resources of the Barents Sea.
Arctic marine ecosystems are, in general,
characterized by comparatively few trophic levels and tight linkages between pelagic (living in
the sea at middle or surface level) and benthic
(bottom living) ecosystem components. Thus
even bottom-dwelling organisms that live far
beneath the sea surface may be affected by
global warming. The characteristics of benthic
fauna, many of which are long-lived and sessile,
make them ideal integrators and indicators of
environmental changes.
For over 15 years, Akvaplan-niva has been
cooperating with Russian partners at the St.
Petersburg Zoological Institute, Murmansk
Marine Biological Institute, and Institute on
Marine Fisheries and Oceanography in the study
of the biological communities inhabiting the
Barents seafloor. Joint scientific teams comprised of researchers from these institutes have
joined together to compile historical data sets
spanning the past 100 years. These teams have
Fish is the main food to the Atlantic Puffin
(Fratercula arctica), but crustaceous and
chaetopoda are also important food sources.
The position of the ice edge is important to
the seabirds, since access to prey is better
near the ice edge than out in the open sea.
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
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successfully reconstructed patterns in benthic
macrofaunal invertebrate community composition, comparing these with environmental variables, including sea temperature, atmospheric
pressure, sea ice extent, as well as human disturbances such as fisheries trawling. Examination
of the combined data set has facilitated the identification of community changes over time, providing valuable new information and insights
into the responses of marine ecosystems to environmental perturbations.
A spatial trend has been identified through
this analysis, indicating that communities living
at the ice edge have greater biomass than in
adjacent and otherwise similar areas in predominantly open water or quasi-permanently ice
covered areas. Scientists have also observed
that over time, benthic community biomass
responds to changes in sea water temperature
with observed reductions in benthic biomass
during colder periods and increases in biomass
during warmer periods.
These results are being integrated with other
arctic field research activities, laboratory exper-
Side 9
Benthos on the bottom of Raudfjorden,
Svalbard. ©Bjørn Solberg Gulliksen
iments and synthesis efforts coordinated by the
Arctic Marine Ecosystem Network (ARCTOS),
a consortium of arctic researchers based in
Northern Norway in order to provide a basis for
assessing the possible consequences of climate
change on the entire Barents Sea ecosystem.
What might a future with less ice mean for
arctic marine ecosystems? A warmer arctic with
reduced sea ice coverage is expected to lead to a
significant shift in the relative contribution of
food items for benthic communities. In the
Barents Sea, benthic organisms are dependent
upon algae that are associated with arctic sea ice
(ice algae) as well as phytoplankton as food.
There are biochemical differences in these food
items, in particular, ice algae contains a higher
concentration of essential polyunsaturated fatty
acids (PUFAS). Less ice algae and more phytoplankton will result in differences in food quality and can lead to risks for benthic organisms
through changes in their allocation of energy to
growth, reproduction and maintenance activities. Major shifts in benthic community composition are thus expected with a multitude of
potential cascading effects for other components
of the marine food web. Major consequences for
Barents Sea fisheries industry are expected
because many commercially important species
depend on the benthos as a food source.
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Side 10
DO WE NEED SNOW AND ICE?
By Pål Prestrud,
Director of CICERO – Center for International Climate and
Environmental Research
To the people in the north the thought of winter bring up very different
associations, ranging from irritation about slippery pavements and heavy snow
ploughing to the joy of skiing trips – a day with snowboard in the hills, or the
beautiful sight of landscape covered with snow. Many places the last winters have
been so warm, and the snow conditions so bad, that profiled Norwegian ski stars
have formed their own campaign to save the winter.
For many people this concern will seem like a
luxury problem, but snow and ice have much
more important purposes than being a playground to Homo ludens – the playing human.
They are important components of the climate
system of the earth. Less snow and ice will lead
to an increase of global warming and hundreds of
millions of people will be affected directly or
indirectly.
With a few exceptions all parts of the cryosphere, which is the scientific collective term on
snow, sea ice, glaciers and permafrost, are melting. The Arctic Sea ice has the fastest decrease,
while the sea ice in the Antarctic is stable or
10
shows a slight increase. The summer of 2005 and
2006 more than a fifth of the sea ice in the Arctic
were missing compared to the average of the last
20-30 years, and the rate of the reduction is
increasing. Almost half of the ice models predict
an ice-free Arctic ocean in the summer of 2080,
but some of the models indicate that this might
occur as early as in 2040. The models are conservative. Actual observations indicate that the sea
ice will decrease faster than the maximum speed
stated by the models.
We know from satellite measurements that
the snow-cover at the northern hemisphere in
March-April has decreased with seven to ten per-
cent during the last years. In most of the area we
may expect a further strong decrease, except a
few places in Siberia and Canada where
increased precipitation will produce thicker
snow-cover. The permafrost covers 20-25 percent of the land areas on the northern hemisphere. All measurements carried out indicates
that the temperature in the upper layers of the
permafrost all over the Arctic have increased
considerably. Large-scale melting of the permafrost is not yet been proved, but a heavy
decrease in the distribution of permafrost is
expected if the global warming continues.
Almost all over the world the alpine and
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arctic glaciers are declining dramatically. For
instance it may be expected that 40-80 percent of
the glaciers in Himalaya will disappear during
this century. The great ice masses on Greenland
and in the Antarctic are decreasing slowly, but in
Greenland the speed of the ice reduction has
more than doubled in 2-3 years. To a great surprise for the researchers, large movements in the
ice masses have suddenly arisen. This has
brought about a great deal of uncertainty among
the researchers about the prediction of what will
happen to these ice masses during a global
warming, and how fast a possible meltdown will
take place.
At the event of less snow and ice there is a
great risk of a reinforcement of the global warming. One reason is that bare ground and open
water absorbs the heat of the sunrays while snow
and ice reflect them back into space. To illustrate
the point: If all the snow and ice disappears it will
have a twice as big warming effect on the earth
than the amount of greenhouse gasses we have
released into the atmosphere so far.
Another reason is the possible release of
great amounts of greenhouse gasses because of a
faster decomposition of organic material, and the
melting of methanehydrates (frozen methane
gas) when the permafrost melts. There is enough
carbon stored in the permafrost to contribute to a
considerable increase in the greenhouse effect.
The increase of the sea level as a consequence of the melting of the glaciers on land
might have extensive direct global consequences
for many low-lying lands, and for infrastructure
concentrated in the coastal areas. The present
increase of the sea level is a little more than 3
millimetre/year, and is mainly caused by the fact
that warm water takes up more space than cold
Side 11
water. As mentioned above there is great uncertainty about what may happen with the ice masses on Greenland an in Antarctica during a global
warming, but the potential increase of sea level
from these are 65-70 meter. Even a 20 percent
melting of the ice on Greenland and five percent
melting of the ice in Antarctica will lead to an
increase of the sea level at four to five meters.
The formation of deep water in the polar sea
areas, which is an important driving force of the
world’s sea streams, may be affected if the sea
ice decrease or the supply of freshwater from
melting of glaciers and from precipitation
increase. UNs climate panel for instance, thinks
the Gulf Stream, which contribute to our warm
climate, may be reduced by 25 percent during
this decade as a result of changes in these factors.
More than 40 percent of the world’s population are directly or indirectly dependent on water
from rivers which have their origin in alpine
areas with snow or glaciers. The decrease of
snow and glaciers will not necessarily have a
negative impact on all these people, but there is a
considerable risk that changed water flow in
many of these rivers will increase the existing
problems many of these people have concerning
access to water for household, agriculture, power
supplies and industry. This will primarily strike
the poor people. The water flow is expected to
increase in many of these rivers the next twenty
to thirty years, but the flow will then decrease.
The frequency of floods and mudslides will
increase during the first stage, while problems
with water supply may not be critical until the
second stage. At least 200 million people are critically dependent on melting water from glaciers.
For instance in the drought periods, almost all the
water in some rivers in Central Asia, Peru and
Chile is melting water from glaciers.
If the melting of snow and ice continues with
the same pace as today it`s obvious to the population in the Arctic that they will be facing quite
new challenges. Indigenous groups will gradually get difficulties maintaining their traditional
trade and their traditional way of living. This is
happening already. Infrastructure built on permafrost will be exposed because melting permafrost is unstable and subsides. For the ones
having capital and competence it`s however possible to solve the problems in a technological
way. New possibilities will also appear. The conditions for farming will be improved. The sea ice
is an effective barrier to sea transport. Decreased
sea ice will undoubtedly increase the accessibility to the Arctic Ocean and increase the possibilities for exploiting the large petroleum resources
likely to be on the continental shelf surrounding
the Polar Ocean. In the wake of the interest for
resource exploitation in the Arctic, many of the
jurisdictionally conflicts that exists in this area
are made topical.
The ecological systems that are connected to
tundra and sea ice will be especially vulnerable
when snow and ice disappear. The species in
these systems – many of them are character
species to the Arctic that we already know well;
polar bear, reindeer, walrus and the like – are
dependent on ice and snow to exist. They have no
places to emigrate when it gets warmer. It`s a
paradox that the diversity of species is expected
to increase as a consequence of the immigration
from the south, while many of the traditionally
polar species will get problems.
Snow and ice in Adventdalen, Svalbard
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
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Side 12
How permanent is the
PERMAFROST?
By Galina Mazhitova,
Komi Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Thawing of terrestrial permafrost induced by the climate
warming will expose significant amounts of presently
frozen organic matter to
decomposition. The decomposing organic matter will
deliver additional amounts of
greenhouse gases to the
atmosphere. If the greenhouse
gases are responsible for the
warming, then the permafrost
thawing can additionally
accelerate the warming.
12
Permafrost in the Barents region
The International Permafrost Association
defines permafrost as “ground that remains at or
below 0°C for at least two consecutive years”. In
the Barents region continuous permafrost occurs
in the north of Russia and on the Arctic Ocean
islands, whereas discontinuous permafrost
occurs also in Finland, Sweden and continental
Norway. Despite occupying large territories,
permafrost of the region is a marginal part of the
huge Eurasian permafrost area. As any margin, it
is more dynamic compared to the main part. The
reasons for that is predominant discontinuity
and “high” temperatures of permafrost (few
degrees below 0°C). Since the Pleistocene (1.8
million to ~10 000 years ago) when it had
formed, permafrost of the region experienced
periods of partial degradation and restoring. Its
southern border shifted from south to north and
back again by hundreds of kilometers.
Permafrost response to
global warming
Permafrost monitoring conducted by Russian
geologists in Komi and Nenets during the last 35
years, shows that permafrost temperatures gradually increase. The Circumpolar Active Layer
Monitoring (CALM) demonstrates that the
depth of seasonal (summer) ground thaw above
permafrost also has increased in most sites during the recent decade. “Warm” permafrost of the
Barents region is especially sensitive to climate
changes. Though so far the observed increase in
the depth of thaw is moderate, it can be attributed to disturbance of natural climatic ciclicity
by global warming. Researchers model permafrost behavior under climate warming.
Results obtained by Vladimir Romanovsky from
the University of Alaska, Fairbanks in cooperation with Russian scientists show that in Komi,
permafrost thawing will commence in most
cases within 10-60 years after a moderate warming (3°C by 2085) has started. Areas with
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Side 13
A striking
feature of
permafrostaffected terrain is
“patterned
grounds”, i.e.
discernibly ordered,
more or less symmetrical morphological patterns
of ground. Patterned
grounds differ in mechanisms
of their formation, however, in
most cases volumetric expansion
of freezing water is involved which
causes differential ground displacement.
©Alexander Kalmykov.
must be utilized.
The largest problem with these techniques is not the
unwillingness of engineers to use them but the
huge costs. The only acceptable strategy is nevertheless,
long-term investments that will
pay back over time.
Permafrost thawing can
accelerate global warming
A woody apartment house in Vorkuta,
Russia. Inhabitants closed openings in the
ventilated cellar designed to keep temperature low under the house and prevent permafrost from thawing. Soon after the house
began to subside and crook.
©Galina Mazhitova.
“warm” and sensitive mineral soil will likely
react to increased warming by developing a
permanent taliks within 15 years. Talik is a
layer of permanently unfrozen ground occurring between permafrost and a seasonally (in
winter) frozen ground layer. The much colder
peatland areas are expected to react more
slowly developing a permanent taliks in 70-75
years.
Permafrost degradation challenges
permafrost engineers
Permafrost degradation will affect urban and
industrial infrastructure, first of all, due to spatially differential ground subsidence. GIS overlays were prepared for the Usa River basin
under the PERUSA project, funded by the
European Commission. The Usa River is the
largest tributary of the Pechora with its basin
area around 95000 km2. It appeared that 60% of
Permafrost distribution in the Northern
Circumpolar Area (permafrost occurring south
of 50°N not shown). The scheme is derived by
Galina Mazhitova from the more detailed IPA
permafrost map.
the basins infrastructure (towns and settlements,
motor and railroads, pipelines, power and communication lines) is located in the “high risk”
areas (with permafrost temperatures between 0
and -2°C). Moreover, between 18-81% of the
infrastructure in the “high risk” areas is located
on peaty grounds with high ice content and
hence, potential subsidence. The basin is experiencing a sharp increase in oil/gas activities
with new development mostly in the permafrost
terrain. To prevent serious environmental disasters caused by damaged oil pipelines, special
safety measures and construction techniques
Permafrost contains significant amounts of
organic matter. Permafrost thawing will expose
it to decomposition in the course of which additional amounts of greenhouse gases (carbon
dioxide and methane) will be released to the
atmosphere. If the greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for the ongoing warming, then,
given the large permafrost carbon pool, permafrost thawing can additionally accelerate the
warming. The situation is complicated by oppositely directed processes operating at the same
time. Increased air temperatures will accelerate
plant photosynthesis associated with carbon
dioxide uptake from the atmosphere and with
increased deposition of soil litter. As a result,
certain amounts of carbon will replenish a relatively inert soil carbon pool. The future balance
of these processes will determine if permafrostaffected soils are a sink for atmospheric carbon,
or an additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Researchers from different countries currently work at the problem. In the Barents
Region, the CARBO-North project funded by
the European Commission was launched in
2006 aiming in quantifying past, present and
future carbon balances with the main study
areas located in Komi and Nenets, Russia.
13
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Side 14
GLOBAL WARMING:
Reality or Pseudo-Serious Problem?
By Valery Barcan,
Lapland Strict Nature Reserve
The current (2006-2007)
unusually warm winter has
awaken an increased interest
of the weather and climate
by the general public, and
thereby mass media have
got a very gratifying subject
for discussion: What is
happening in nature? Whether
the Earth is getting warmer
and if so, what natural
changes are expected for
humans in this relation?
To be honest, this situation
reminds me of the question
from the Soviet comedy
“The Carnival Night”
– Is there life on Mars?
First of all it is worth noting that the most
important meteorological instruments, thermometer and barometer, appeared in the seventeenth century and regular instrumental meteorological observations started not earlier than in
the nineteenth century, that is about 150 years
ago. Such is indeed the age of the information
on climate available for us. All our knowledge
on climate before the nineteenth century is, in
essence, information about natural manifestations of consequences entailed by variations in
climate rather than data on climate itself. For
instance, researchers take samples layer by
layer from a peatbog of let’s say 5-6 m depth.
On the Kola Peninsula the deepest peat layers
dates 7000 - 8000 years back and each layer is
examined for plant residues and pollen. The
result is a picture of plants grew at the specific
site 1000 - 3000 - 5000 years ago and respectively mean temperature of the area at that time
is determined. This method is used for periods
not older than 10 000-12 000 years ago, i.e.
after the Ice Age. For the more hoary times,
hundreds of thousands and million years ago,
climate conditions are estimated, for example,
based on botanolite and zoolite residues and
using some other quite complicated approaches.
We will not go that far in the past. At the
end of eighteenth – beginning of nineteenth
century, a famous Russian writer and agronomist Dr. Bolotov described how a string of
sledges delivered frozen fish to St.-Petersburg
and Moscow every winter, from the Kama River
and other rivers rich in fish in the Ural region.
In some years there were neither snow nor frost,
and in December-January it was so warm that
fish became rotten and were discarded back to
the rivers. Periods closer to the present,
November and December 1963 were warm and
rainy and the New Year of 1964 on the Kola
Peninsula we celebrated in the rain. One of the
winters at the end of the 1980’s people in the
town of Monchegorsk bought cheap sheep’s
Hillock bog with permafrost.
©Bjørn Franzen, Bioforsk
14
carcasses in the end of November with intent to
preserve them as usual in the open air, on the
balconies. In December - January, rotten sheep’s
carcasses could be found all over in garbage
cans and even in the streets as a dainty for
homeless dogs. I limit myself to the examples
above; otherwise they will not fit into an article
size but very likely in a thick book.
The propagandists for horror stories about
global warming, like to terrify us that in the
future the permafrost in the Siberia will melt
away, resulting in towns and villages drowning
in mud. On the Kola Peninsula as the rest of
Fennoscandia, there is no real permafrost
although it is almost wholly located beyond the
Arctic Circle. Hillock bogs with permafrost
inside the hillock are typical of the Kola
Peninsula. The southern limit of such hillocks
with permafrost inside is located approximately
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at 67° 50'N, i.e. slightly southward of the town
of Monchegorsk. In the vicinity of Monchegorsk
I have found 13 bogs with ice core hillocks, and
there are references in the literature to three of
them: the two first were described in 1935, i.e.
70 years ago, and one in 1921, i.e. 85 years ago.
At that time they were at the same location and
of the same state as today. The slightest increase
in the annual sum of daily air temperatures may
lead to melting of the ice core of the hillocks.
However, ice in the bog hillocks has remained,
as is shown by our example, during almost the
whole recent century and is not going to thaw in
the nearest future. There are periodic fluctuations of mean temperatures in different areas of
the globe and in particular in the areas with the
aforementioned bog hillocks with permafrost
that, as suggested by the pollen analysis,
formed approximately 3000 years ago. The
hillocks have probably existed for these three
millennia.
Today the main supporters of the climate
warming hypothesis are British researchers. At
hundreds of conferences they demonstrate a
frightening map in crimson colour where our
mournful future is depicted: mean temperature
rise by 4-5 °C in the Arctic, melting of per-
Side 15
mafrost in Siberia, the depth of which now
reaches a kilometer, thawing of glaciers, an
increase of sea level, flood of coastal regions etc.
In the opinion of Dr. Khabibullo Abdusamatov, Head of Laboratory of Space Exploration
of the Main (Pulkovo) Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Science, the
decisive effect on the global climate variations is
made not by human activities but by variations
in the solar radiance intensity. He noted that this
conclusion is supported by NASA experts
revealed the concurrent climate warming on
Mars in the period between 1999 and 2005. Now
the solar radiance has already entered into
decreasing phase of the secular cycle but thermal inertia of the Earth is still responsible for
global warming in the recent years and we experience the so-called “effect of a hot frying pan”.
In this relation a question may arise: What
is behind such a stubborn but not proven statement about global climate warming? Propa-
gandists of this point of view know the point at
issue as well as us, but give the impression of
deliberately avoiding seeing obvious things. It
seems the hypothesis of global warming by
burning of organic fuel indefatigably defend
nuclear lobby, because the thermoelectric and
hydraulic power stations are the main competitors of the nuclear power engineering. Building
of the last is hampered by the fear of the consequences by nuclear accidents.
I have some considerations regarding this
matter but to show suspicion without having
evidence is disgraceful of a scientist because as
was said by Admiral of the Fleet, Mr. Makarov
– “we write about what we see and what we do
not see we do not write about”.
At this point I leave the discussion of this
undoubtedly interesting topic but one should
always remember that the climate variability
does not depend on us.
Palsa peatland.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
15
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Side 16
Stable and predictable weather conditions are
key essential components of survival of Sámi
livelihoods in the European North or ’Sapmi’,
Sámi homeland that spreads from Southern
Norway to the Eastern end of Kola Peninsula.
Snow and knowledge of snow is survival to the
Sámi who are the Indigenous peoples of
this region as recognized by International Law.
They have occupied and lived in this region
since Time Immemorial. Sámi knowledge of the
land can be called ’traditional knowledge’
or ’Indigenous knowledge’. The Sámi
are owners of this knowledge and carry it
among their distinct cultures.
Knowledge of Snow, Weather and the Landscape
– SNOWCHANGE
YEARS
with the Sámi
By Tero Mustonen and Mika Nieminen
www.snowchange.org, [email protected]
Elina Helander-Renvall, Sámi reindeer owner
and researcher from the Arctic Centre,
Rovaniemi, Finland has stated that ’the Sámi
have a knowledge of their own. This knowledge
is best expressed in the Sámi languages.’ Sámi
knowledge has been a target of active suppression by missionaries and other nation-state
actors, investigation by outside anthropologists
and other academics and source of ridicule by
mainstream societies of Norway, Finland,
Sweden and Russia. Today some new recognition of the inherent value and detailed observational knowledge of nature are appreciated by
Western science and institutions, but still the
basic colonial power relationship often remains.
16
In the contemporary study of global and
Arctic climate change, the traditional knowledge and observations by Sámi have emerged as
a focal point. However, the scientific institutions only want to acquire reports of observations by the Sámi and other Arctic Indigenous
peoples, without willingness to address the root
causes of the ecological, colonial catastrophe
that the industrial development and colonial
process in the Arctic has caused.
The Snowchange Cooperative based in
Finland launched a partnership in 2001 on a
new, post-colonial attempt to study and advance
Sámi participation in finding solutions to the problems of weather and
climate changes. From the start it was a partnership with the Department of Environmental
Engineering, Tampere Polytechnic, Finland, but
since 2005 it has been an independent organisation devoted to the cultural, scientific and political advancement of the local cultures of the
Arctic. Elina Helander-Renvall, head of Arctic
Indigenous Peoples Office in Rovaniemi,
Finland has been a key partner as well as the
Sámi Council. In Sapmi the partner communities are Nesseby and Tana area (Norway),
Vuotso, Inari, Utsjoki (Finland), Jokkmokk area
(Sweden) and Lovozero district of Kola
Peninsula (Russian Federation). SnowchangeSámi cooperation is a community and family
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driven process where the local people are the
key actors in decision making and key knowledge holders (see textbox for more details on
the project milestones).
In short Sámi experiences include impacts
on reindeer herding from ice rain that freezes the
ground in autumn, preventing reindeer from
accessing the lichen. This has in addition to
direct reindeer death other linked impacts to
society – unsafe economic and social conditions,
increased costs of feeding and fuel in reindeer
herding, unpredictability of snow and weather
conditions. Winters are warmer in Sapmi, and
snowfall has shifted to spring. In addition to
impacts of livelihoods there are several site-specific weather and ecological impacts from the
new, unstable conditions, such as lack of proper
freezing of water ways in Kola Peninsula, melting earlier in the spring and so forth.
The Snowchange Sámi materials are mostly
collected as interviews on oral histories of ecology, tradition and livelihoods. Also group sessions with community people, participant
observation where researchers have worked
with the Sámi as reindeer herders and fishermen, documentary films, diary entries on
weather and dream knowledge 2003-2004, and
community participation in international and
national events are included. This process is ongoing and forms the basis of community based
monitoring network in Sapmi on ecological and
climate changes. The Sámi are owners of the
knowledge which is documented. Therefore the
Snowchange network is markedly different
from the previous classical academic studies of
Sámi which very often operate on colonial principles – the Sámi benefit little from participation in such activities.
The Snowchange partnership with the several Sámi communities is an on-going attempt at
balanced dialogue between traditional Finnish
people and the Sámi in a new, post-colonial context. The question of survival of Sámi is connected to the survival of what little remains of
forest knowledge of Finns. At the current framework we need positive action and resistance to
the forces that are spiralling the peoples of the
Barents Region into the current cataclysm of
further colonisation, resource extraction and life
of greed. New models and new ways of thinking
are needed. Sámi knowledge and traditions,
Side 17
Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus)
and the Coastal Saami of Varanger have a
relationship dating back to Time Immemorial.
Ocean is a crucial resource base of the
Coastal Saami who are starting a
new partnership in the Varanger region of
Norway with Snowchange. ©Tero Mustonen.
which have developed over centuries, are excellent guides to a re-traditionalized future of the
region. Crisis of European civilizations is first
and foremost a spiritual crisis, severing of connections from nature, which led to the colonisation of the Sámi and condemnation of their
sophisticated cultures and languages as ’primitive’ in the height of modernity.
It is high time we listened to the other story
that exists, and knows the land – in listening
perhaps; just perhaps, we will find a human
being within ourselves as well. And that is the
only hope left in the current multi-faceted crisis
of the Arctic – re-learning of our beings.
Tero Mustonen is a researcher, poet and fisherman who works as Head of International
Affairs of the Snowchange Cooperative,
Finland. He is with Mika Nieminen, Elina
Helander-Renvall, Sergey Zavalko and Hanna
Eklund an author of the ACIA Report Chapter
of Sámi Knowledge of Climate Change.
Contact www.snowchange.org,
[email protected]
The Snowchange Cooperative has focused
on supporting Indigenous education and
survival of Saami traditional knowledge.
Grassroots initiatives have resulted in meetings between Lena Antipina (left), Head of
the School of Kolumskaya, Republic of
Sakha-Yakutia, Siberia, Russia with teacher
of Saami language and handicrafts ElleMaaret Näkkäläjärvi (middle) from Inari
School in Finland during Snowchange 2007
Conference "Traditions of the North".
Educational cooperation included visits to
the nomadic reindeer camps of the Chukchi
people in Kolyma, led by reindeer herder
Pjotr Kaurgin (right). ©Tero Mustonen.
IMPORTANT EVENTS IN THE
SNOWCHANGE PROJECT:
2001, the Snowchange project was launched.
Snowchange 2002 International
Conference on Indigenous Observations of
Climate Change, Tampere, Finland.
Snowchange 2003, International
Conference in Murmansk, Russia.
In 2003 co-reseacher Eija Syrjämäki worked
with Sámi Council Vice President Stefan
Mikaelsson to launch new community process
in Jokkmokk area of Swedish Sapmi. 2004,
first four years of community materials were
collected into an English language, publication
“Snowscapes, Dreamscapes”.
2004, ACIA Conference key findings of the
Sámi – Snowchange cooperation were
presented to international scientific audiences,
media and stakeholders.
2004, The Sámi observations were collected
to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report
released by the Arctic Council
(www.acia.uaf.edu). This represented a
progressive attempt to find a dialogue between
the Indigenous peoples and scientists on the
study of climate change.
2005, reform of the Snowchange work as an
independent cooperative.
Snowchange 2005, International
conference, Indigenous peoples of the Arctic,
Anchorage, Alaska, USA .
2006, extensive community visits were made
to Murmansk region, a pilot attempt to include
Eastern Sámi communities to the Circumpolar
Biodiversity Monitoring Programme of the
Arctic Council in 2008 – 2010.
2007, diversification of Sámi – Snowchange
partnership with community-based monitoring
in Kaldoaivi and Inari regions of Finnish
Sapmi, new community work in Nesseby,
Norway being planned, nomadic reindeer
school cooperation between Inari school and
the Chukchi Nutendli nomadic school in
Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Siberia, Russia on
traditional knowledge of snow (Muohta Snow
Project 2006-2007).
Snowchange 2007 Workshop ’Traditions
of the North’ in Neriungri, Republic of SakhaYakutia, Siberia, Russia.
17
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Side 18
When access to winter pastures
DISAPPEARS INTO THE OCEAN…
1
By Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten,
Department of Biology, University of Tromsø
In recent years there has been an increased focus on climatic changes.
Mass media is full of material that in one way or another are connected to
the climatic variation we are experiencing. These variations are not uniform,
but give different effects dependent upon time and place. There are reports of
earlier spring, wetter and warmer summers, or absence of snow and cold
during the winter. It is exactly such changes in winter climate and the effect
this can have for reindeer husbandry in a concession Sami village in
Tornedalen2, Sweden, this article addresses.
The grazing area for Liehittäjä concession Sami
village, and their 1200 reindeer, is located at the
end of the Tornedalen Valley, between Loppio
in the north and out to Malören Lighthouse in
Haparanda’s archipelago in the south, from
Kalix River in the west to Torne River in the
east. The concession Sami village has access to
the vigorous summer pastures between Haparanda and Övertorneå. What distinguishes this
concession Sami village from other Sami villages in Sweden is that the winter pasture is primarily located out in the Haparanda archipelago – that is out on a number of larger and smaller islands in the Gulf of Bothnia.
18
The sea ice is important for
fall-, winter- and spring reindeer
migration
At the onset of fall the reindeer herd will begin
wandering southward towards the winter pastures of their own accord. The members of the
concession Sami village follows the movement
from the sidelines and ensure that the animals
do not cross into the grazing areas of neighbouring concession Sami villages. The animals
begin to gather at the coast during the end of
November-early December while waiting for
the sea ice to become strong enough to carry
them across to Seskarö. Seskarö is an inhabited
island with road connections, and serves as a
distribution point for the concession Sami village winter pasturelands. Here the Sami village
has set up a fence and feeding places, and the
island is the start point for all activity related to
winter grazing. In order to get here the reindeer
herds are totally dependent on a cold period that
allows the sea ice to freeze and be thick enough
to support the whole herd.
The concession Sami village has experienced delays in the onset of this cold period,
and this has lead to substantial extra work.
Without the cold period the ice is too weak for
the animals to cross and they remain grazing on
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a strip of land between the highway (E4) and
the shore. This is a situation that demands intensive herding from the concession Sami village
such that hazardous traffic situations can be
avoided. If the ice does not form before the middle of December, alternative transport to
Seskarö has to be organized.
Seskarö is just a part of the concession Sami
village winter grazing area. Access to the other
islands further out in the archipelago is a critical factor for how many reindeer survive the
winter. After a short stay on Seskarö the herd is
divided into smaller herds and released onto
different islands. The quality of the sea ice is
also a factor influencing the safety of the reindeer herders. Intensive herding during winter
occurs up to 20-25 km from the coast, and an
eventual accident out here can have catastrophic results. Reindeer owners have great respect
for the sea ice and this is always an important
subject for discussions. When the herders meet
they exchange information on the herds and on
the conditions of the ice. It is not only the ice
thickness that is important. Knowledge about
where water has been pressed up onto the ice
surface is also important. With extended
southern winds the water levels
will rise and water steams
up through cracks in
the ice accumulating
between the ice layer
and under the snow
cover. In some places the
water on top of the ice can be
as much as 50-60 cm deep. If one gets
stuck in such areas it can be very difficult to get
a snow scooter loose and one quickly becomes
wet. Wet clothes and a stuck snow scooter 20
kilometres offshore is a situation most will wish
to avoid. Sometimes there is so much water on
the ice that it is irresponsible to move onto the
ice at all. In such situations it’s to wait for the
water to freeze again before it’s possible to get
access to the reindeer herds.
How the herds are divided is dependant
upon pasture access and predators. In the winter
of 2003 the concession Sami village had wolves
on the winter pasture, and most of the herd was
taken back to Seskarö where they got access to
supplemental fodder (hay) until the spring
movement in April. Under normal conditions
they use the different islands at different periods
of the winter, and as a general rule they rotate
the use of the pastures in a circle from west to
east and back again. The condition of the sea ice
is also a factor in determining when the spring
move towards summer pastures shall start. The
concession Sami village carefully follows
changes in the ice conditions to be prepared to
move the herds on short notice. An increase in
air temperature, but also increases in southern
winds, can cause an increase in over-water on
Side 19
the ice that makes the spring move more difficult. It has happened that spring came so quickly that it was impossible to complete the spring
move in a normal fashion. It was then very hard
work to get the herds gathered again on
Seskarö, where they were loaded onto trailers
and driven the 70 km to the summer pastures.
There are many disadvantages with this solution. For the first, loading and off-loading is an
unnecessary stress for the animals; second, it is
expensive; and last, but not least, it is very difficult to keep the animals on the summer pastures. When they are driven to the summer pasture there is a tendency for the herd to migrate
back towards the coast where spring has come
further along than up on the summer range. The
herd has to be held together and intensively
herded for the first two weeks. Should the
weather change and become cold again then
this herding period must be extended.
Small changes – big consequences
It is obvious that this local adaptation – with
winter pastures out on the archipelago – is very
vulnerable to climatic changes. In order to maintain this traditional management method one are
dependent upon adequate sea ice forming in
November/December, and that it remain safe to
travel on both for animals and men.
Liehittäjä concession Sami village is special because of its dependence on sea ice, but
there are many examples of Sami villages that
move their reindeer herds over large watersheds. Also here will spring and fall movements
be in a danger zone and alternative migration
routes must be devised. The alternative for such
areas is to move their herds with trucks.
Should the climatic changes cause the ice to
form much later, or cause it to break up in the
winter season, then reindeer husbandry will be
faced with an insurmountable problem and the
Liehittäjä concession Sami village will be
threatened. In many ways this concession Sami
village serves as an early warning to all of reindeer husbandry. It is perhaps here that the
effects of climate change on the reindeer industry as a whole will be observed first.
This paper is based on field data collected for
my doctoral thesis in social anthropology at
the Uppsala University (Jernsletten 2007).
2
For more information about how the
concession Sami villages diverge from other
Sami villages in Sweden, see Jernsletten and
Beach (2005). The challenges and dilemmas of
concession reindeer management in Sweden.
In: Reindeer management in northernmost
Europe: Linking practical and scientific
knowledge in social-ecological systems. B.
Forbes, M. Bölter, N. Gunslayet. Rovaniemi,
Springer-Verlag, or Jonny-Leo Jernsletten
(2007). ”Med rett til å gjete...” Utfordringer
og muligheter i Liehittäjä konsesjonssameby,
PhD dissertation, Department of Cultural
Anthropology and Ethnology, Uppsala
University.
1
Edge herding on the winter range.
Seskar-Furö in the background.
©Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten
View over the sea ice looking
east from Malören lighthouse.
©Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten
19
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Side 20
What does climate change mean
FOR FINNISH LAPLAND?
By Tapio Tynys,
Metsähallitus, Finland
As a small boy, before my family
moved from southern Finland to
settle in the north, I was taught
that Lapland is a cold, dark
land – a place where living conditions are tough. This was by
large, an accurate description.
With this in mind, the idea of
Lapland’s climate becoming
warmer and its summers longer
does not at first sight seem such
a bad prospect. History also
supports this view: periods of
cold climate have brought
famine, misery and emigration,
while warmer periods have
meant prosperity in all respects.
I would be surprised if the
average person in Lapland had
much against the idea of
warmer summers and milder
winters. However, the almost
universally bleak future
scenarios presented by scientists
raises the question
– what exactly does climate
change mean for us?
20
No change in the light climate
The debate on climate change has focussed only
on the thermal climate. Virtually nothing has
been said about the light climate, perhaps understandably, because it will not change. The Earth
will continue to orbit on its course despite greenhouse gases. The polar night of Lapland – the
period during which the sun does not rise above
the horizon at all – will in a hundred years be
just as long as it is today. The months of May,
June and July will remain the season of the midnight sun, also a century from now.
Plants in the region are, however, adapted to
both the light and thermal climates. They begin
preparing for winter already before the autumn
equinox, even though weather conditions may
still be warm. The trigger for this change is the
shortening length of day. At the end of winter,
however, a different mechanism is in play.
During the spring equinox in late March, plants
remain in a complete dormant state despite the
fact that there is sufficient light during this time
to cause snow-blindness. So, whereas the wintering of vegetation is triggered by light, the
start of the growing season is brought on by
warm weather.
The seasonal variation of the thermal climate follows the rhythm of the light climate
with a couple of months delay. Plants have
adapted to this cycle. But what if this delay is
changed? Winters in Lapland are predicted to
become milder by several degrees centigrade.
One result of this will be a shortening of the
snow cover period. Snowless, dark Octobers
will become the norm. In spring, warm weather
may melt the snow already in early April. Once
the snow cover has vanished the ground will
warm rapidly, causing plants to ‘think’ that
summer is on its way. This entails a risk: what
if such a heat wave is followed by an influx of
a cold polar air mass, in other words, a cold
snap? The result could be catastrophic for
plants that have already begun to grow, as in
April the sun is still too low to heat as strongly
as it does in the summer. A premature onset of
growth like this is probably the largest single
risk posed by climate change in northern
Lapland.
Will Lapland’s mountain birches
(Betaula pubescens ssp. tortuosa)
be lost?
The two maps show the possible effects of climate change on the vegetation of northern
Lapland. The upper map, representing the current status, is based on a biotope inventory carried out by Metsähallitus in the late 1990s. The
lower map shows what might be the situation in
around 2110. This is, of course, only a crude
forecast, but it nevertheless shows the likely
direction of change should the climate warm as
the latest estimations predict.
The forecast map is based on the presumption that practically all alpine areas and mountain birch groves in today's Forest Lapland vegetation zone (approximately the area south of
the timber line for Scots pine) will become
forested by pine (Pinus sylvestris) or spruce
(Picea abies). Another basic assumption was
that the Fell Lapland mountain birch zone and
the so-called secondary alpine areas, where
mountain birches were destroyed by autumnal
moths (Epirrita autumnata) in the 1960s, will
become pine forest. Destruction by autumnal
moths and grazing will accelerate the colonization by pine.
The third basic assumption is that the exten-
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Side 21
The upper map shows the forest composition
in Lapland in 2000, and the lower map shows a
model of how the forest composition might look
like in 2110, with the ongoing climatic change.
Generated by Tapio Tynys and Juha Sihvo,
Metsähallitus, Finland
sive alpine areas in Fell Lapland will not become
colonialised by mountain birch, but will rather
remain treeless due to autumnal moth damage
and intensive summer grazing. The eggs of the
autumnal moth perish in winter temperatures
below -36 °C. As such temperatures will no
longer occur during milder winters, Lapland’s
mountain birches could face rapid destruction.
An alternative, entirely feasible and brighter
scenario for the mountain birch is that the
warming of the climate will eliminate, or at
least alleviate, the mass outbreaks of moths that
are typical of the Arctic region, thus preventing
the outbreaks and levels of destruction that
occur today. Less intensive summertime grazing would also contribute to a gradual change
from alpine heath to birch grove.
Climate change and tourism
There is strong faith in the growth of tourism in
Finnish Lapland. This is reflected in the substantial construction of new accommodation and
service capacity currently underway at the major
resorts of Saariselkä, Levi and Ylläs. Whereas
the investment boom is not the result of climate
warming predictions, it is clear that these forecasts have not intimidated the business community – possibly to the contrary. The thinking is
more or less as follows: future snowless winters
in southern Finland and the Alps will attract
skiers to the north. This may indeed happen.
Summertime tourism has not featured greatly in the Finnish climate debate. It has been suggested, however, that the Mediterranean countries may ultimately become too hot for holidaymakers, causing future tourists to choose alternative destinations such as the Baltic coast and,
increasingly, Lapland and the Arctic Ocean.
Climate change is, however, a two-edged
sword. Lapland’s weakness in terms of its
tourism potential is its long distance from major
population centres. People have to cover long
distances to get to Lapland, usually by car or
plane. Since traffic is a major source of greenhouse gases and contributes to climate change,
the cost of travelling may become – or be made –
so high that opportunities for tourism are limited.
21
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Side 22
TREE-RINGS
– A Living Diary of Climate?
"We study tree rings to piece together past climates and
get a glimpse of the future" says Dr. Gordon Jacoby
from Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of
Columbia University, USA. Dendrochronologists
study annual growth rings of old trees to learn
about past environmental changes. By combining
living and dead wood, scientists can extend
tree-ring paleoclimatology records back
hundreds to thousands of years.
What are tree-rings?
Trees and shrubs expand in width by the division of cells in a thin layer (called cambium)
underneath the bark. Some cells add to the bark,
but most add to the wood. In a tree trunk, all the
tissue inside the cambium layer is xylem or
wood, and all the tissue outside the cambium is
the bark. The wood cells carry water and minerals from the roots. These cells are alive when
they are produced by the cambium, but when
they actually become functioning water-conducting cells, they lose their cell contents and
become hollow, microscopic tubes with lignified walls.
Each year, a tree forms new cells resulting
in a distinct pattern of concentric circles that
can be seen on a stump or a cross section of the
trunk. These circles are known as growth rings,
or annual rings, or tree-rings. The radial growth
of one season is composed of a light-coloured
inner portion and a darker portion of the growth
ring. In early summer, when growth is comparatively rapid, cambium produces numerous
large cells with thin walls (called earlywood).
Later in the summer, smaller cells with thick
walls (called latewood) are produced outside
the earlywood. Growth rings are visible due to
the macroscopic differences between earlywood and latewood.
Dendrochronology and
dendroclimatology
In order to tell the age of the tree, tree-rings can
22
be counted in either a
cross section of the trunk
or a core taken from the
trunk. The growth patterns
of the rings can be studied
to determine the conditions a
tree lived through. Dating of
wood samples from the pattern
of tree-ring growth is called dendrochronology. The unique pattern
of warm and cold growing seasons
creates a corresponding pattern of
wide and narrow tree-rings. The dating
of tree rings, by itself, is not much use
unless the technique can be applied to answer
various questions in the earth and ecological
sciences. A major application of tree-ring research is dendroclimatology: studying the relationship between tree growth and global climate
change.
Trees are fascinating in that they have the
ability to record environmental changes. Our
native trees keep their own diary of climatic
changes or other events that affect their growth.
Each year a page is added which faithfully
records whether that was a lean year or a fat
one. Annual rings generally grow wider during
warm summers and narrower during cold ones.
Growth rings from trees growing in the same
area provide a record of local climate during the
life of the trees. Trees are living records of past
climate and weather. The advantage of using
trees to study climate is that those records are
available in parts of the world where there are
few weather stations and where consistent and
accurate records of weather rarely go back more
than 100-150 years.
Crossdating
The most basic principle of dendrochronology
is a process known as crossdating. It is a technique that ensures each individual tree-ring is
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Side 23
By Kauhanen Heikki,
M.Sc., METLA, Kolari Research Station
build up a first master chronology. This will be extended to
the past by additional samples from already felled
and old timber. This is
possible when the
innermost part of the
recent sample shows
overlapping parts
with the outermost
part of old samples.
Both parts can be
cross-dated and linked. Calendar dates
to the samples from
trees whose dates
are not known can
be assigned by crossdating their tree-ring
patterns against the
master chronology.
Tracking past
climate from
tree-rings
Ring-width variability in a disk
sample taken from an old pine
scarred by a fire. ©Tuomo Wallenius.
assigned its exact year of formation.
Dendrochronologists read the distinctive patterns of wide and narrow rings which appear in
pieces of wood from different trees.
A sequence of ring-patterns can be built up
from timber of many different ages, and this
allows each tree-ring to be dated exactly. Their
construction starts with coring living trees to
In northern Fennoscandia, the
width of tree-rings in the stem
wood of pine (Pinus sylvestris) show
a high positive correlation with summer
temperature, in particular July mean temperature. In this area, pine trees are able to
reach ages of more than 500 years while dead
trees can be well preserved for thousands of
years in cold-water lakes. Thus, tree rings from
this area offers a great potential for reconstructing a year-to-year record of summer temperature over hundreds to thousands of years.
A driving force of the dendrochronological
progress is the construction of ever longer
chronologies. Samples may be taken from very
old living trees such as the Bristlecone pines
found in California, which can be over 4,700
years old. In northern Fennoscandia, the longest
tree-ring chronologies from a single tree are
usually 500-600 years. But the sequence of
ring-patterns can be extended by using dead
wood, for example subfossil pines.
It is the big differences between seasons
which cause the distinct tree-rings. The
winter with no growth is succeeded by the
spring with rapid growth. This is when the
light-coloured rings are produced, and these
are succeeded by darker rings produced by
slower growth later in the summer.
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
As a result of recent work by Finnish dendrochronologists, a continuous 7640-year treering chronology for Finnish Lapland is available. It is the longest year-exact conifer treering chronology in Eurasia and the second
longest conifer tree-ring chronology in the
world. Not only the length but also its exceptional climatic sensitivity (strong connection
between ring width and July temperature) provides a great tool for tracking past climate
changes. Knowing environmental conditions in
the past from tree-ring studies, we can predict
future climate trends and fluctuations.
23
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Side 24
ARCTIC PLANTS
are well adapted to climate changes
By Kristine Bakke Westergaard,
PhD-student in botany Tromsø Museum
The global average temperature is increasing, and in the
feature we will get warmer
summers and warmer and
wetter winters in the Arctic.
This will make the bioclimatic
zones gradually move north,
the permafrost will be
thawing, and the arctic plants
will get competition from the
southern species that move
north to escape the dryer
climate in the south. The
plant life of the High north
has earlier been described as
genetically impoverished and
marginal, but this is not
correct! They live in one of
the world’s harshest climate,
and have many suitable
adaptations to survive large
climatic changes. The
question is if they have any
areas to survive in, at an even
warmer climate?
24
In the northern and arctic areas there are long
distances between islands, groups of islands
and mainland. Earlier it was believed that such
long distances where about insuperable for
plant dispersal and that the plant life on both
sides of the North-Atlantic must have been isolated through all of the ice ages. Many of our
arctic and alpine plants also lack obvious adaptations to long distance dispersal, like for
instance berries to bird dispersal, or hairy and
winged seeds to wind dispersal. This lead to a
long lasting belief that long distance dispersal
of plants are rare events.
Genetic variation
The plants of the High North have trough hundred thousands of years with ice ages and
warmer interglacial periods, had a great deal of
time to adapt themselves to climate changes.
During every ice age they have had to seek protection in refuge areas south of the ice sheet, in
large ice free areas in the High North like
around the Bering Strait, and perhaps also on
mountain peaks projecting above the surface of
ice (nunataks) or other ice free areas within the
ice sheet (ice free foreland and dried out sea
floor).
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It is presumed that the plants have had
enough time to evolve in these refuges to
become different from the original species.
When the plants have redispersed from the
refuges to former ice covered areas, they have
met different forms which have evolved differently in other refuges. If these different forms
are capable of interbreeding and production of
fertile offspring, there will be a possibility of
getting new varieties of the species or totally
new species. In the animal kingdom it`s rear
that the offspring of two different species is fertile, but in the plant kingdom this is very common. Many of these new crossings, or hybrids,
are a result of so-called polyploidy – i.e. that
two different plant species have produced an
offspring which includes the full set of chromosomes from both parents; therefore twice as
many as the parents! The new polyploid species
are proved to have a better potential of colonizing the new unoccupied areas that are exposed
as the sheet of the ice is melting, than the original species with only two sets of chromosomes. It seem to be a clear connection between
polyploidy and the ability to survive in an
unstable climatic environment with a short
growing season. Genetic studies of polyploid
plants shows that they are capable of maintaining a high degree of genetic variation, but a
large amount of this variation is preserved in
each single individual as a number of sets of
chromosomes with many different copies of
each genus.
Many arctic plants rarely reproduce by
cross pollination, but go in for self fertilization
or vegetative formation. By preserving the
genetic variation in each plant individual like
this they will be able to avoid inbreeding
depression and maybe gain a greater adaptability to different habitats.
Side 25
cated that the colonization have occurred after
the ice age. Thus we assume that the species we
have studied must have dispersed to Svalbard by
long distance dispersal after the ice age.
All the species studied showed their own
dispersal pattern. They have dispersed to
Svalbard from Russia (most common),
Greenland and Scandinavia (rare). The wind
dispersed Mountain Avens (Dryas octopetala)
has dispersed mainly from Russia, while the
bird dispersed crowberry (Empetrum nigrum
coll.) has dispersed from Greenland. Northern
Bilberry (Vaccinium uliginosum) came to
Svalbard both from Russia and Greenland. The
most of the species must have dispersed to
Svalbard on several occasions - a number of
them probably a great many times. Mountain
Avens have for instance dispersed thousands of
times, maybe hundreds of thousands, given that
many of the seeds didn’t hit the right “gap” with
the right local climate where it could sprout to a
healthy plant. Most of the seeds probably disperse by the wind over snow and sea ice, by
drift ice, drift timber from the large Russian
rivers and from birds of passage.
It doesn’t seem to be the dispersal itself that
limits the plant adaptations to climate changes,
but the ability of reaching the location of a suit-
Dispersal to Svalbard
To be able to predict anything about what
ecosystems will look like in the future, we need
to know how fast and how long the plants are
capable of dispersing at the present. By using
molecular genetic tools (DNA-fingerprinting)
we have tested more than 4400 individuals of 9
different plant species to get more knowledge
about how they are able to disperse across great
distances to Svalbard at climate changes. Three
of the species we tested have adaptations to bird
dispersal (juicy fruits), three of them to wind dispersal (seeds with hairs or wings), and three of
them lack obvious adaptations to dispersal. We
used Svalbard as a modelling system to study
long distance dispersal, because Svalbard was
almost entirely covered with ice during the last
ice age 20.000 years ago. Indeed it is still debated whether some few, extremely robust plants
may have survived in small refuges at Svalbard,
but most of the earlier genetic studies have indi-
A Mountain Avens (Dryas octopetala)
©Christiaane Hübner
Icebergs in Disco Bay, Greenland.
These icebergs are so large that it will
take many years before they melt, and
during this time they are able to drift
enormous distances. Growing plants are
found on icebergs like this.
©Kristine Bakke Westergaard
genetic variation of the high arctic Highland
Saxifrage (Saxifraga rivularis) in Svalbard cannot be explained only by long distance dispersal
from mainland areas, and thus we cannot
exclude that it actually has survived on
Svalbard during the last ice age.
The genetic variation within each plant
species found on Svalbard today, showed that
able habitat where they can survive. If the sea ice
in the arctic decrease during the winter, e.g.
between Russia and Svalbard, is it not for sure
that the plants will be able to disperse at the same
successful extent. Again the arctic-alpine plants
capability of adaptation will be put to the test.
The article “Frequent long-distance plant
colonization in the changing Arctic” was
published in Science Magazine 15. of June
2007. The authors are Inger Greve Alsos,
Pernille Bronken Eidesen, Dorothee Ehrich,
Inger Skrede, Kristine Bakke Westergaard,
Gro Hilde Jacobsen, Jon Y. Landvik, Pierre
Taberlet and Christian Brochmann. The
research was financed mainly by the
NORKLIMA-programme in The Research
Council of Norway.
25
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Side 26
Use of satellite imagery
TO MONITOR NATURE
Phenology is the knowledge
about the season-wise
variations in nature and how
variation in, for example
annual temperature or precipitation can impact plant and
animal life. Here in the north
we experience large changes
in nature throughout the year.
And yet we have to understand that seasonal variations
are not consistent over the
entire planet. Plants and
animals in northern areas
experience much more extreme
seasonal variation than their
compatriots in southern
latitudes. We are talking
about adaptations to the local
climatic conditions. Using
satellite data we can document
the phenological phases in
different regions, particularly
the beginning and end of the
active growth season.
26
By Stein Rune Karlsen, NORUT
Satellite imagery observes
nature’s cycles
Satellite data enables us to monitor both the
spatial patterns and changes in nature’s cycles.
However, not all satellite data can be used in
this purpose. To measure phenological changes,
satellite sensors able to measure the relationship
between reflected red and infrared light have to
be incorporated. This relationship provides us
with an excellent estimate for the amount of
green in the surface vegetation (i.e. photosynthetic activity). In addition the satellites have to
be able to repeatedly take photos of the same
area, preferably every day. By measuring the
amount of greening each day we can document
the start of photosynthesis in the spring (start of
growth season) and end of growth season in the
autumn (green changing to yellow). Since the
beginning of the 1980s we have received data
from weather satellites (NOAA-AVHRR), and
since 2000 we have received data from several
additional satellites specially designed to monitor Earth’s natural environment (TERRAMODIS). The advantage with these additional
satellites are that their sensors have much better
resolution such that we are able to observe more
details from the surface than is possible with the
weather satellites.
Dependent upon students and teachers, as
well as cooperation across national boundaries.
In order to accurately interpret the satellite
imagery we are totally dependant upon observations made on the ground to calibrate the satellite photos. Observations in the autumn are
especially important because phenological
changes happen so rapidly and with large local
differences. Finland has a well-developed network of research stations (METLA) charged
with making phenological observations, while
Russia collects data from three nature reserves
and the Kirovsk Botanical Gardens on the Kola
Peninsula. In Northern Norway ground data is
only collected at Bioforsk Svanhovd in
Finnmark and Bioforsk Holt in Tromsø.
Luckily we also have a school-based project
(Phenology of the North Calotte) involving data
collection by several schools from Finnmark
and the Kola Peninsula, allowing us to cover
these regions much better. In order to calibrate
the observed ground data with satellite images
the data must include the same, comparable
phenophases from all four countries. This
process was harmonized for the region, and
good international cooperation has taken place
here since the early 1990s.
Nature’s cycles in the North Calotte
Region and in Europe
In the 1990s several alarming messages were
received from Central Europe saying that the
growth season was starting earlier and earlier,
and this information was used as evidence of
ongoing effects from climate change. When
NORUT processed data from the weather satellites over Scandinavia from 1982-2002 and
measured changes in the growth season that gave
a surprising result. Southern Scandinavia
showed a trend with an earlier onset of the
growth season by more than two weeks, similar
to the rest of Europe. While the mountainous
regions of southern Scandinavia and the inland
regions of the North Calotte showed a stable or
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even somewhat of a delay to the growth season.
However, since 2001 the onset of the growth sea-
Side 27
autumn, as evidenced by yellowing of the vegetation, begins about mid-September over most of
North-European Lepidoptera
(Cosmotriche lobulina)
©Bjørn Franzen, Bioforsk
Growth season 50 years
in the future?
Average onset of the growth season from 2000 – 2005. Measured using the MODIS
sensors on the American TERRA satellite. The locations are research stations and schools
with phenological ground observations used to interpret satellite imagery.
Changes in the onset of the growth season from 1982 – 2002. Based on over 50 000 images
from the American NOAA satellites with AVHRR instrumentation on board.
son has been much earlier in the North Calotte
and the pattern now follows the rest of Europe
with an increasingly earlier start to the season.
Results using the new generation of satellites
show that the area where green-up first occurs in
the spring is the narrow strip of coastline
between the ocean and mountains in Northern
Norway. This often starts as soon as early May,
creeping slowly up the mountainside at a rate of
six days per 100 meters of elevation. The
the North Calotte. Yellow-up in the autumn, seen
in relation to green-up in the spring, does not follow a clear elevational pattern from higher lands
to lower lands. Rather the pattern is very heterogynous with large local differences. The
process behind this heterogynous pattern is
largely unknown. This gives a total growth season of over four months along the coast and in
most of Northern Finland and less than three
months in the mountainous regions of Norway.
In order to predict future changes in the growth
season we have to know which climatic factors
are controlling this. Here in the North Calotte
and in other artic and boreal regions we know
that ultimately the onset of the growth season is
steered by average temperature. Other climatic
factors, such as precipitation, are important but
impact at a finer time and geographic scale then
our measurements. This temperature dominance means that we can relatively easily predict the basic trends in the onset of future
growth seasons based on climate scenarios. In
late summer and through the autumn this
becomes much more complex because several
other factors have an effect, such as light conditions and frost nights. This makes it much more
difficult to predict the onset of autumn in the
future. For the spring each degree increase in
temperature results in an earlier onset of the
growth season of 4-5 days for inland areas and
7-10 days earlier for coastal areas. Thus, should
we have 2-3 °C increase in spring temperatures
over the next 50 years, then the growth season
will begin three weeks earlier along the coast
and two weeks earlier in the interior. The latest
climate models are predicting that the temperatures will increase more in interior areas than
along the coast so that this difference will likely even itself out somewhat. Even though the
impacts of climate change will be comparatively little compared with many parts of the earth,
a change of 2-3 weeks earlier start of the growth
season will lead to large consequences for
nature and for the people living there.
Changes in the onset of green-up are the
first indication of long-term changes in our
ecosystem. For example, this can lead to
changes in the range of many species and
changes in the production of vegetation.
Changes in the growth season can also directly
influence agriculture, forestry and not the least,
reindeer husbandry. Today reindeer follow the
“green wave” in the spring to utilize fresh grass
and herbs. Changes here can force reindeer to
change their pattern of what areas they use during the different times of year.
27
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Side 28
Focus on Climate in
NORWEGIAN – RUSSIAN
SCHOOL PROJECT
By Ingvild Wartiainen,
Bioforsk Svanhovd
A part of the project is to observe the first
arrival of the Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea)
in the spring. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk
In the school network
”Phenology of the North
Calotte” (PNC) the time of
reoccurrence of selected natural
phenomena (Phenophases) for
species of plants, birds and
insects common at the North
calotte are registered. The
schools participating in the
project have arranged a
phenological path in the vicinity
of the school, which they visit
28
regularly toregister the times
for the selected phenophases.
Through participation in this
school network the pupils and
teachers get an insight into
scientific research methods, and
contribute to the data collection
used in climate research. The
project is lead by Bioforsk
Svanhovd, and today 5 Norwegian
and 11 Russian schools actively
participate in the project.
Phenology
Phenology is the study of the times for reoccurring natural phenomena, such as flowering of
cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus), unrolling of
the first birch leaves (Betula sp.), arrival and
departure of migratory birds etc. Such a happening or phenomena are called a phenophase, and
the time for the phenophases occurrence depends
on both biotic and abiotic factors in the environment. Registration of the same phenophases for
selected species over a long period of time and in
different areas makes it possible to demonstrate
the local variations in length of the growth period and recognize variations in growth period
over time (see paper by Stein Rune Karlsen in the
same magazine).
Penological path
In the project, 18 different birds, insects and
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Side 29
BIOTIC FACTORS are the living
organisms influence on the environment
(ecosystem).
plant species, together with physical parameters
such as snow and ice cover are studied. Each
participating school has an area in the school
vicinity where most of the species and physical
parameters can be studied. This area is visited
regularly during spring and autumn to register
the times for the occurrence of the defined
phenophases described in the project manual.
Connected to the projects web pages is a database where the schools register their results.
The results from all the participating schools
can be collected from the database when needed, and be used actively in the teaching. As an
example, it is possible to study local and
regional climatic variations, or use the results in
interdisciplinary project work including maths,
English, geography or art.
ABIOTIC FACTORS are the non living
FACTS ABOUT
THE PROJECT:
factors influence on the environment,
such as topography, climate, geology,
and inorganic nutrients.
PCN started up in 2001, and is a cooperation including secondary schools
and natural science research institutions in Norway and Russia, together with
“Nettverk for miljølære” in Bergen (www.sustain.no)
In 2007 Russia had participating schools in the following cities: Rajakoski,
Nikel, Murmansk, Murmanshi, Kirovsk, Monchegorsk, Polyarny Zory,
Kandalaksja and Umba, where Kandalaksja and Polarny Zory have more than
one active school. In Norway, the active schools are in Pasvik, Vestre Jakobselv,
Båtsfjord, Korsfjord and Alta.
Teaching materials and internet pages for the project are developed
(http://sustain.no/projects/northcalotte/).
School gathering
In addition to the phenological path, the annual
school gathering is the most important activity
in the project. At the school gathering, a total of
50-60 teachers and pupils from the active
schools meet for a three day seminar with social
and scientific activities. These gatherings have
special focus on contact making activities and
The teaching materials and internet pages are adapted to teaching in
secondary school and are written in English. At the school gathering most of
the teaching is in English. This is to stimulate increased language practice, and
increase the communication between Norwegian and Russian participants.
The project is lead by Bioforsk Svanhovd, and is mainly financed by the
Norwegian Ministry of Environment. The County Governor of Finnmark and the
Barents Secretariat also contribute financially.
Participants at the
school gathering in
Murmanshi in May 2007.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
During the school gathering at Svanhovd in
2006, the pupils used
DNA based methods in
sex-determination of
brown bear.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
One of the tasks at the
school gathering in
Murmanshi was to
analyse the purity of the
water in the river
Toloma.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
biology, where phenology and biodiversity are
central issues. The school gathering is arranged
once a year alternating between sites in Norway
and Russia.
In 2006 the school gathering was held at
Svanhovd in Norway, where brown bear (Ursus
arctos), fresh water fish and river pearl mussels
(Margaritifera margaritifera) were in focus.
The main theme was brown bear, and the pupils
were taught more about brown bear behavior,
how to find traces from brown bear in nature and
how to use DNA to identify different individuals
of brown bear. In 2007 the school gathering was
held in Murmanshi in Russia, and here special
attention was given to analysis of fresh water,
soil analysis and biodiversity of lichens. In addition excursions to water power plant, and a tropical bath in Murmansk was arranged.
THE GOALS OF THE PROJECT
“PHENOLOGY OF THE NORTH CALOTTE” IS TO:
• Increase the competence in natural science among the pupils in secondary
school by focusing on some of the key species in northern ecosystems, and to
increase the awareness of the time of reoccurring phenomena in the nature.
• Contribute to increased understanding and respect for culture and tradition
across the borders through creating arenas for better contact between
Norwegian and Russian schools and scientific institutions.
• Teach the pupils scientific methods and stimulate increased interest for
scientific research. To connect research and teaching, in order to decrease the
gap between Norwegian and Russian schools and scientific institutions.
• Contribute to increased investment and use of IKT in the participating schools.
• Stimulate to better skills in English language among Norwegian
and Russian pupils.
29
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Side 30
THE CLIMATE CHANGES
demand robust management
By Jørgen Randers,
professor at BI Norwegian School of Management and
Chairman of WWF-Norway
A new frightening record was Changes in the marine resources
taken this autumn. The summer ice Historically, an essential part of the economic
activity in the region has been exploitation of
around the North Pole had its living marine resources. The Norwegian
minimum extent since the measure- Commission of Low Emissions stated that to
ments started in modern time. The predict how the ecosystems in the ocean will
respond to increased sea temperature is very
polar ice melts faster than hard. If we look at the populations of fish,
predicted by the climate models. increased sea temperature in the Barents Sea
This may be a prewarning about may represent better conditions for reproduction and growth to some species, like the
major changes in the High North Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea
– much faster than we have harengus). The population is now on its way to
believed so far. These changes will reach the large population size from before the
breakdown in the 1960´s. This can give the
also be of economic character, and Norwegian fisheries and the other countries
political action is required. harvesting from the population, high incomes.
30
An imagined increase of the Norwegian quotas
by 25 percent may represent an increased firsthand value of up to half a billion Norwegian
kroner – yearly.
Simultaneously the herring is shifting its
geographical belonging. This year, after many
years of conflict, the countries with rights in the
herring fishery have finally reached an agreement. It will be a big challenge to the management regime of this and other populations when
changes in the sea temperature and other factors
makes the populations move.
To the coast of Finnmark and parts of Troms
it is not herring, but cod that has been the basis
for pattern of settlement. High access to cod
most of the year has been crucial, and the consequences of a failure in the population of cod
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will be dramatic to the community economy. As
an example bankrupts in the fishing industry
after year 2000 resulted in a strongly reduced
housing prize in many of the fishing villages.
The income from fisheries is changing from
year to year, and is now on its way up again.
Cod for 5,5 billion kroner was exported from
Norway last year. To ensure the continuation of
a big fishing enterprise based on cod and other
populations in the future, the yearly quotas have
to be in line with the recommendations from the
researchers.
For a number of years the quotas have been
set higher than the recommendations from the
researchers. If the recommendations for 2007
had been followed by the Norwegian-Russian
Fisheries Commission, Norwegian fishers
would have nearly 50 000 ton less cod and
roughly lost more than a billion kroner in
income. Most of the models show that an
increased spawning population will give considerable higher profit in the long term. In the
future weighing the options will be yet more
important. The quotas have to be sustainable,
and now that the climate changes are evident,
strong climate buffers are necessary to secure
the populations.
New conditions to the
reindeer husbandry
The relations are just as complex on land. Over
time the arctic ecosystems have been relatively
stable and thus it is expected that their power of
resistance against climatic changes are low.
Thus the Arctic, including parts of the northernmost Norway, is especially vulnerable. Among
the keywords, we find: more extreme weather,
disappearance of the permafrost from certain
areas, higher tree line, invations of new species
and the risk of disturbance in symbiotic relations between different species – for instance
between insects and plants. This presents new
challenges to the industry dependent on
resources at land. Reindeer husbandry, which is
vital to the maintenance of the Sami culture, has
to adapt to new conditions. Increased output
may provide better conditions of grazing on the
summer pastures while less stable winter climate may result in pasture areas more often
covered with ice and thus unavailable to the
herd, and do the already critical access to food
even harder. Once again we see that it is hard to
predict the consequence of the climate changes,
and to secure a durable resource basis, totally
new demands to the management have to be set.
Nature and tourism – important
area of employment in the north
In the north of Norway tourism is the industry
with greatest potential for growth of employment. It is not only the midnight sun attracting
the tourists, but also a diversity of ecosystems,
exciting species and interaction between traditional industry and nature. In the tourism industry they call their special attention to the possibilities of nature based activities. In 2004 tourism
accounted for more than 12 000 man-labour
Side 31
years in the north of Norway and a yearly growth
of three percent to 2020 should be realistic. The
potential may be much higher.
Oil and gas – the hope for the north
of Norway?
Much of the debate in the north of Norway has
been about the potential for employment within
oil and gas. A frequently repeated estimate from
the US Geological Surveys indicates that of all
the undiscovered oil and gas resources in the
world a quarter of it may be situated in the
Arctic. Based on the latest data of the policy,
analysts recommend long-term investments in
the oil companies best positioned for exploitation in the Arctic. There is immediately not
much gain for Norway, unless in the case of oil
exploration at the continental shelf around
Svalbard.
Different scenarios predict from one thousand to several thousand employees in the
petroleum activity in the three northernmost
counties of Norway within 2020. It is worth
mentioning that the highest estimates are based
on the establishment of more installations to
lead oil and gas ashore after the Snow White
model. However the technological development
seem to go in the direction of underwater installations, floating production vessels and different models of automated running. Even in the
case of large discoveries outside the north of
Norway, the lowest estimates seem to be the
most realistic. The industries more or less based
on renewable non-regenerating natural
resources, that are affected by
the climate changes, make a
considerable higher potential for
employment.
In western Siberia the arctic
oil and gas adventure started a
long time ago, with the development of large fields. Both with
and without development of the
Sjtokman field, we will experience increased traffic by oil and
gas tankers along the Norwegian
coast, a trend that can be accelerated if the climate changes
make the Siberian tundra
impassable and make it difficult
to maintain the infrastructure
with pipelines through the area.
The government has done an
important work placing mandatory shipping routes 30 nautical
miles from the coast from this
summer of 2007 and on, and has
strengthened inspection and preparedness along the Norwegian
coast. However increased traffic
by oil and gas tankers will only
be a foretaste of what we can
expect if a northern shipping
route from Europe to Asia opens
up between the Barents Sea and
the Bering Strait. This will hardly give the Norwegian industry
any opportunities, but place bigger responsibilities on Norway for inspection and readiness.
The Norwegian Commis-sion of Low
Emissions has indicated that within 2050 it will
be possible for Norway to lower the emission of
greenhouse gases by 50-80 percent, within the
limits of what is technological and political
realistic. It is imperative with a global climate
protocol with binding efforts for all countries
and activities. At the same time we have to realize that the climate changes, not at least in
north, put new demands on the politicians and
public officials. We have to shape the management to secure a robust resource basis and can
no longer allow ourselves to balance on the
edge of a knife as to what we can harvest from
the natural resources.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
The ice of the High North is melting much
faster than predicted by the climate models.
The climate changes may result in big
changes in the natural resource basis
necessary to the industry in the north. The
picture shows Isfjorden, Svalbard.
©WWF-Canon Wim Passel.
BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1
It is difficult to predict the effect of the
climate changes on the ecosystem in the
Barents Sea. Thus buffers are needed in
the management, and it will be yet more
important to take advice from the
researchers, when the total quotas are
defined. In addition the illegal fishing has
to be brought under control.
©Kystvakta/Greenpeace.
31
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Climate changes will most probably give significantly higher temperatures in northern areas
during this century, with the consequence that
northern Nordland and the coastal areas in
Troms and West-Finnmark will experience
markedly increased precipitation and also more
incidents of extreme precipitation. This part of
northern Norway will therefore be more affected by climate related damage connected to different types of slides and floods. Due to local
variation in the natural conditions, the community economics and infrastructure, the municipalities are not equally vulnerable to climatic
changes, and they have different ability to cope
with climatic changes. Because of the large
number of municipalities in northern Norway
(89) it is a challenge to identify the most vulnerable local communities where more resources
should be invested in additional analysis and
preventative measures. To achieve this we used
an indicator model developed in cooperation
with CICERO and ProSus (Aall and Norland
2003). The regional vulnerability analysis
(Groven et al. 2006) was conducted as an assignment for the Norwegian Polar Institute as an element of the project “Norwegian follow-up to the
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (NorACIA).
The model is divided as previously stated
among three forms of vulnerability. With “natural vulnerability” we describe vulnerability to
natural processes that may be affected by climate
changes. With “social economic vulnerability”
we describe community characteristics and
processes that affect the local vulnerability to
climate changes. This includes local business
composition, where climate vulnerable business
includes both nature-based business directly
dependent upon climate (agriculture, fishing,
reindeer husbandry and tourism) as well as businesses vulnerable to political climate factors
such as CO2 taxes (for example oil and gas
industry). “Institutional vulnerability” describes
the capacity for local institutions to implement
measures necessary for the local community to
adapt to changes in the climate. The topics and
indicators were chosen to provide as much information as possible on the local vulnerability to
climate change, but were also influenced by
what data was available at the municipality level.
The following table is a relatively simplified version of the results from this investigation. Because of space considerations some
indicators are not included and we only show
the municipalities with the greatest vulnerability for each indicator. We emphasize that this
table represents results from a method that is
Side 32
Northern municipalities
VULNERABILITY TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
By Kyrre Groven, Vestlandsforsking
Local communities are vulnerable to climatic changes in
different ways: Some municipalities will in the future be
especially impacted by natural events like mudslides and
floods, some are vulnerable because of poorly considered
placement of buildings and highways, while still others will
handle climate changes badly because they are ill-equipped to
initiate preventative measures or at handling crises situations.
It is especially bad if both natural, social economic and
institutional conditions points in the wrong direction.
Vestlandsforsking analyzed how vulnerable northern
Norwegian municipalities are to climate change with the help
of an indicator model that tries to account for all these
aspects of climate vulnerability. Four communes stood out as
potentially more vulnerable than the rest.
©Erling Fjelldal, Bioforsk
32
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Side 33
VULNERABILITY INDICATORS
Natural
Vulnerability
Social Economic
Vulnerability
Institutional Vulnerability
FACTOR EVALUATED
MUNICIPALITIES POTENTIALLY
MOST VULNERABLE
Flood
Length of river stretches in the
flood zone
1. Alta
2. Nordreisa
3. Målselv
4. Grane
Mudslide
Registered slides
1. Målselv
2. Vefsn
3. Hemnes
4. Bardu
Snow avalanches
Registered slides
1. Karlsøy
2. Vestvågøy
3. Tromsø, Lyngen
4. Loppa
Slides general
Populated area within
potential slide zones
1. Tromsø
2. Fauske
3. Loppa
4. Rana
Business
Employed in vulnerable
businesses
1. Vevelstad
2. Moskenes
3. Flakstad
4. Dønna
Transport
Climate gas released
per resident
1. Grane
2. Kvalsund
3. Nesseby
4. Hamarøy
Energy use
Energy use per resident
1. Tysfjord
2. Lenvik
3. Meløy
4. Evenes
Planning
No updated Commune Plan
(Area planning)
1. Bø
2. Evenes
3. Skjervøy
4. Sørreisa
Preparedness
Municipality lacks a risk and
vulnerability analysis
Moskenes,
Kvæfjord,
Torsken,
Gáivuotna/Kåfjord,
Hasvik, Nesna,
Deatnu/Tana
”Living local community”
Population size prognoses
1. Bjarkøy
2. Loppa
3. Beiarn
4. Hasvik
The Church in Nesseby.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
still under development. Further refinement of
the model, better data foundation and new
insights into the interrelatedness of climate vulnerability will lead to a new ranking of the
municipalities later.
The municipalities with the most hits in the
list “potentially most vulnerable” were
Moskenes and Grane in Nordland County;
Målselv in Troms County; and Loppa in
Finnmark County, each with negative outcomes
in four or five indicators. Several of these
municipalities were vulnerable to slides while
others were vulnerable to flood hazards, business structure, inadequate crisis management
plans and weak population estimates. Målselv
and Grane showed largest variation with regard
to the three vulnerability categories.
A robust method?
We are unable, based on this model, to provide
a final evaluation of which municipalities in
northern Norway are most vulnerable to climate
changes. This method is too course for that.
However, we do think this indicator model is
adequate to use in identifying which municipalities have a need for additional in-depth studies.
The model also is adequate to say something
about regional divisions in vulnerability to
clime changes and could be used to help further
develop vulnerability categories.
We would like to point out some fundamental limitations and methodological challenges
with this model. For five of the original indicators the foundation of current knowledge was
insufficient to make concrete evaluations of vulnerability. There is a general need for more
research on how climate change will affect
nature (especially ecosystem effects) and society. We need more dynamic descriptions that
take into account not only the climate but also
the community that is undergoing change. A
further development of the model that includes
parallel descriptions of climate- and societal
changes will be done in cooperation with CICERO Centre for Climate Research, University
in Oslo, Meteorological institute in Norway and
Vestlandsforsking, as part of a research project
funded by the Norwegian Research Council.
The future use of this model can go in two
directions: Further refinement and more secure
evaluations of local climate vulnerability; and
secondly, use of the model as a tool for scenario
building and categorizing.
Use of the indicator model on northern
Norwegian municipalities was the first phase of
a NorACIA Project. In the next phase we shall
generate detailed vulnerability analyses in
selected case-study municipalities in cooperation with CICERO, Sámi University College
and Vestlandsforsking. Specifically we shall
conduct a local vulnerability analysis for
Målselv municipality.
References (Both reports are available in
Norwegian at: www.vestforsk.no)
Groven, K., Sataøen, H., Aall, C. (2006):
Regional klimasårbarheitsanalyse for NordNorge. Norsk oppfølging av Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (NorACIA). VF-rapport
4/06. Sogndal: Vestlandsforsking.
Aall, C., Norland, I.T. (2003): Indikatorer for
vurdering av lokal klimasårbarhet. VF-rapport
15/2003. Sogndal/Oslo:
Vestlandsforsking/ProSus.
33
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Side 34
Grazing sheep in Porsanger, Finnmark.
©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk
NORWEGIAN AGRICULTURE
and Climate Change
By Arne Grønlund,
Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Ås
Agriculture is strongly dependent on climatic conditions, and changes
in climate will affect both vegetative growth and the environmental
impacts of the agriculture. Agriculture also directly releases
greenhouse gasses and has great potential to reduce this release.
Effect of climatic changes
Climate changes are likely to result in increasingly more difficult conditions for agriculture in
many parts of the world. Precipitation shortages
and lack of water can be expected in many areas
that until now, have farmed without the need for
irrigation. In the future some areas may even
have their rivers dried up, making it impossible
for agriculture even with the help of irrigation.
A large portion of agricultural production will
be expected to move northward and into areas at
higher elevations.
In Norway changes in the climate will create both problems and possibilities for agriculture. Climate is the most important limiting factor for agricultural production in large portions
of the country. Thus climate changes can probably have positive effects due to higher temperatures, longer growth seasons, increased crop
yield and an increased potential for growing
more warmth-demanding crops. Larger areas
may become suitable for farming. Increases in
atmospheric CO2 can also contribute to
increased photosynthesis and increased yield.
At the same time a reduction in land suitable for
agriculture and decreased production in other
areas of the world can lead to higher prices for
agricultural products and an increased profit for
northern agriculture.
Climate change will also have several negative consequences. Higher temperatures will
lead to more frequent outbreaks of plant diseases and pests. For example, we can expect
that dry-rot will be a larger problem for potato
farming than it is today. Unstable winters,
34
greater variation and heavier precipitation
episodes will lead to an increase in freezingthawing events, increasingly difficult over-wintering conditions for some crops, increased
nutrient runoff and pollution of surface water
and ground water.
There is reason to believe that additional
areas will be able to produce grain crops, but we
can also expect more erosion as a result of the
unstable winters and heavy precipitation. A
large portion of the agricultural lands along the
coast of Norway represents a great potential for
erosion risk because of the hilly and rough terrain. Grain crop production should therefore be
limited to the least erosion-prone areas.
Agriculture in northern areas is considered
to be one of the few sectors where climate
change, in sum, can have a positive effect.
Historically this business has been strongly
affected by variable weather and climate conditions and therefore has a relatively great capacity for adapting to new conditions. To some
degree one can exploit knowledge gleaned from
other areas where they have experience with
similar challenges. What is special with the
northern regions is the combination of day
length and higher temperatures, which represents an entirely new situation where no one has
any previous experience. Developing new plant
types that are adapted to higher temperatures
and longer days will therefore be a major challenge.
EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH
FROM 2070-2100
Temperature
• Mean temperatures will increase by 2.5-3.5°C, mostly in the interior and northern areas.
• Minimum temperatures in winter will increase by 2.5-4°C, mostly in Finnmark County.
• Maximum temperatures in summer will increase by 2-3°C.
Precipitation
• Årsmiddelnedbøren vil øke med 5 - 20 %, mest langs kysten i sørvest og helt i nord
• Nedbøren om høsten vil øke med over 20 % i nord
• Ekstreme nedbørmengder vil opptre oftere
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Release of climate gasses
from agriculture
Norwegian agriculture contributes a substantial
portion of human-caused release of climate
gasses, ca. 10%, and also has a huge potential
for reducing the net release of these gasses. The
most important source of gas release is connected to farming of bogs and livestock production
that together account for about 80% of the total
gas released from the agriculture. Because of the
large proportion of tilled bogs and the greater
livestock densities in the northern regions of the
country we can assume that this region contributes to a larger release of gasses per farmed
unit compared to the rest of the country.
The most realistic climate mitigation measures
for agriculture in the north are:
• Reduction of gas released from tilled bogs
• Production of biomass to carbon storage
and bioenergy
• Reduction of methane (CH4) released from
livestock and manure
The world’s bog areas contain about as much
carbon as is found in the earth’s atmosphere.
Draining and cultivation of bogs leads to
decomposition of organic material and large
releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous
oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere. One can
expect that higher temperature and longer periods of thaw in the future will lead to quicker
decomposition of cultivated bogs and greater
release of climate gasses. Bogs comprise 2-3%
Side 35
of the earth’s land area. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated
that restoring cultivated bogs as one of the mitigation measures within agriculture globally
that has the greatest potential for reducing the
release of climate gasses. This measure should
be particularly important in Northern Norway,
where cultivated bogs comprise 15% of the total
farmed areas, compared to 7% nationally. The
THE AMOUNT (PERCENTAGE) OF CLIMATE
GASSES RELEASED FROM DIFFERENT
SOURCES IN NORWEGIAN AGRICULTURE
35 %
30 %
25 %
N2O
20 %
CH4
15 %
CO2
10 %
5%
0%
ck
e
ur
to
es
Liv
an
og
en
itr
N
fe
er
liz
rti
m
to
es
Liv
ck
ed
Cu
lt
t
iva
gs
bo
s
se
ea
el
r
er
th
O
Source: “SSB Kildefordelte utslipp til luft, 2005.”
The amount of CO2 released from cultivated
bogs was estimated by Bioforsk using 750,000
daa. of cultivated bogs and a CO2 release rate
of 2.1 tons per daa. per year.
simplest method to reduce release of climate
gasses from bogs is to simply avoid draining
and cultivating them in the first place. Some
existing cultivated bogs, for example those with
drainage problems because of compacted peat
or too little slope can be of interest for restoring
to a natural condition, such that the soil will
again bind carbon. The Greatest challenge will
be to choose measures that quickly lead to
increased carbon binding but still limit the
release of CH4.
Forests bind large quantities of CO2 and
thus can increase the carbon storage in
standing biomass. The forest can be used to
produce bioenergy in the form of: firewood; wood chips; pellets or briquettes that
can be burned directly or as raw material
for extraction of ethanol for fuels. The
potential for carbon storage in forests and
bio-energy production is expected to
increase substantially as a consequence of
increased growth rates and expanded forest
boundaries further north and at higher elevations. It can also be possible to cultivate
bioenergy crops on marginal areas that are
not farmed because of difficult terrain or
high erosion risks.
Large amounts of methane are released
from livestock manure and the digestive
process of ruminants. Some of this release
can be reduced through changed feed compositions and utilizing the methane released
from manure as an energy source.
35
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Side 36
PUBLISHED BY THE SUPPORT OF:
Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd
N – 9925 Svanvik
Phone: +47 46 41 36 00 Fax: +47 78 99 56 00
E-mail: [email protected]
www.bioforsk.no/svanhovd
Woolly lousewort
(Pedicularis dasyantha).
©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk