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BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 1 2007 CLIMATE CLIMATE IN IN CHANGE CHANGE NATURE NATURE AND AND SOCIETY SOCIETY CHALLANGES CHALLANGES FOR FOR THE THE BARENTS BARENTS REGION REGION BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 2 BARENTSwatch BarentsWatch 2007 is published by Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd with support from the Norwegian Ministry of Environment, NorACIA, Eni Norway and Statoil. Norwegian, English and Russian editions are published. Director: Ingvild Wartiainen Editor: Ingvild Wartiainen Cover photo: Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica) ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk Graphic design Tiina Monsen, Tvers Kommunikasjon Print: Birkeland trykkeri AS Editorial Work completed September 2007 Translators: From Norwegian to English: Bioforsk Svanhovd From Norwegian to Russian: Storvik & CO, Svetlana Kurthi ISSN 0806 – 5411 Usnea longissima in Yugid Va National Park in northern Ural, Russia ©Bjørn Frantzen, Bioforsk BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 3 CONTENTS The climate is changing, but how will it affect people and nature in the Barents Region?, IngvildWartiainen . . . . . . . . . . .5 Global climate change results in large regional variations, Ingvild Wartiainen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Coming up on thin ice, JoLynn Carroll . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8 Do we need snow and ice?, Pål Prestrud . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 How permanent is the permafrost?, Galina Mazhitova . . . . .12 Global Warming: Reality or Pseudo-Serious Problem?, Valery Barcan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14 Knowledge of Snow, Weather and the Landscape – Snowchange Years with the Sámi, Tero Mustonen . . . . . . .16 When access to winter pastures disappears into the ocean… , Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 What does climate change mean for Finnish Lapland?, Tapio Tynys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20 Tree-Rings - A Living Diary of Climate?, Heikki Kauhanen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .22 Arctic plants are well adapted to climate changes, Kristine Bakke Westergaard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24 Use of satellite imagery to monitor nature, Stein Rune Karlsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26 Focus on Climate in Norwegian – Russian School project, Ingvild Wartiainen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28 The climate changes demand robust management, Jørgen Randers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .30 Northern municipalities vulnerability to climate change, Kyrre Groven . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32 Norwegian Agriculture and Climate Change, Arne Grønlund . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34 3 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Red-throated Diver (Gavia stellata) ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk 4 Side 4 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 5 THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING, but how will it affect people and nature in the Barents Region? The climate has become very unstable because of human activity, and the changes we observe happens much faster than predicted by all the climate models. The drift ice around the North Pole is melting in a frightening pace, resulting in problems to more than seal and polar bear. Extreme weather cause enormous destructions of big economic costs and eliminates the economic basis to many people in poor countries. Traditionally rich agricultural areas are lost because of extreme drought or precipitation. Even relatively small increases in temperature or sea level might be catastrophic to many areas around the world, but what about us up in the North and in the Barents Region? How will our everyday life be affected? And how will nature and wildlife manage? In this issue of Barentswatch we want to present precise and easily understood information about what effect the ongoing climate changes will have in the Barents Region. Articles with concrete examples on what challenges nature and communities in the Barents region may expect in the future are presented. Some changes we are already experiencing, others will probably be apparent in shorter or medium-term time, while it for some expected changes only exists qualified guesses. Fortunate external conditions like geographical position and ground conditions make the expected changes here in the Barents Region small compared to the polar area, low-lying areas and areas around the equa- tor. Still considerable changes, which may cause changes in biological diversity and make problems to commerce and infrastructure, will occur. As this climate issue indicates there are still they who believe that the climate changes are a result of sun storms, and that people do not have any influence on the climate. This in contradiction to the extensive international unity, fronted by the U.N. climate panel that the causes for the ongoing climate changes by far is caused by human activities. The slogan “Act locally, think globally” do also apply to the subject of climate. To create involvement and understanding about the topic, and visualise the need for changes in the pattern of consumption and other initiatives to lower the emission of climate gasses, it is important to focus on local changes, but think globally at the same time. Those who will be most affected by the climate changes are also the ones contributing least to the greenhouse gas emission. Thus the distribution of the catastrophes is “unfair”. Good Reading! 5 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 6 By Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk Soil and Environment Svanhovd Global climate change results in LARGE REGIONAL VARIATIONS The global climate changes seem to provide more of everything. Increased average temperature, more precipitation, more drought, more heat waves and more intense cyclones and hurricanes. At the same time the sea level is rising, because warmer water demands more space and because inland ice in the Arctic is melting. Human activities, with high fossil fuel consumption, intense land-use and changes in use of area have resulted in the present concentrations of greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide far exceeding the pre-industrial values (ab. 1750). What regional effect these changes will have depends in a great extend on where you are on the planet. Important international research reports During recent years especially two reports give new and important information about the ongoing global climate change, and describe consequences of the changes to humans and nature. This is the fourth report from the UN climate 6 panel “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (IPCC) that will be published within 2007 and the report prepared by the Arctic Council ”Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (ACIA) published in 2004. The UN climate report consists of three sub reports together with a synthesis report that summarize the con- clusions from the three sub reports. The sub reports deal with; 1. The scientific understanding of climate changes, 2. The effects of climate changes on nature and society, and adaptations efforts, 3. Efforts and means to fight climate changes and decrease dumping of greenhouse gasses. While the IPPC report describes the BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 7 Changes in the snow conditions will probably have an unfavourable effect on the reindeer husbandry. ©Ragnar Våga Pedersen, Bioforsk global situation, the ACIA report focus on the Arctic and also describes the impact of the climate changes on the Barents Region. Both reports base the probability for the different influences to take place on an extensive data material consisting of field surveys, laboratory experiments, observed climate changes and theoretical modeling. Effect of climate changes on the nature in the Barents Region. During the last 30 years there has been a decrease of the yearly average cover of sea ice by 8%, or almost 1 million km2. The sea ice has also become considerable thinner. Melting of sea ice do not result in rising of the sea level, but an ice free polar sea will absorb more radiation and contribute to an increase of the global warming. However melting of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica has increased the sea level by 0,4 mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Probably low-lying coastal areas will experience an increased frequency of storm surge as a result of rising of the sea level, simultaneously there will be more coastal erosion and increased salinity in bays and river mouth. It is very likely that there will be a northerly migration of plant and animal species, some tundra areas will disappear from the mainland and the tree line will move north and increase in altitude in the mountains. Increased temperature will probably result in more damage on the forest as a consequence of insect attacks. Overgrowing of open landscapes (the tundra) will decrease the nesting area to many birds and the grazing land to many land animals. It is expected that rare animals may be lost and species common at the present may decrease considerably. Many of the animals specialized on cold climate might be replaced by species migrating northward because of the warmer climate. To some bird, fish, and butterfly species such displacement is already under way. Warmer and more humid climate might also result in reduced berry production, and berry plants might be less common. The effect on commercial practice in the Barents Region The extent of snow covering the land areas in the Arctic has been reduced by about 10% during the last 30 years. Reduced snow cover and changes in the snow conditions will probably represent an unfavourable situation to the reindeer husbandry. Most likely traditional harvesting of animals will be more risky and unpredictable. The climate changes are predicted to increase the potential for commercial agriculture northward throughout this century, by the increase of the yearly average crop yield and the possibility for more thermophilous (heat loving) species to be cultivated. Probably the marine access to oil, gas and mineral resources will be better as the sea ice is reducing its extent, while the ground-based access to recourses most likely will be more difficult many places because shorter periods of frozen ground make transport and accessibility more complicated. Reduction in the extent of sea ice will most likely result in an increase in the North Atlantic and Arctic fisheries. The fisheries will be based on traditional species of fish, but also on southern species expected to move northward. The sea farming industry will probably profit from a faint warming of the water by faster growing of the fish, but at a little stronger warming the temperature tolerance to the fish might be exceeded. Warmer water might also result in more frequent algal blooms and an increased frequency of diseases. Melting of the sea ice in the Polar Sea will make new and shorter transport routes between Europe, Asia and America accessible, while unpredictable ice conditions might create difficulties to the shipping traffic. This article is focused on the expected climate changes in the Barents Region, and is mainly based on the fourth report from IPPC and the ACIA report. To get information about other regions one must refer to these reports. The Barents Region is one of the areas where the climate changes seem to have little influence compared to many other areas in the world, but there will still be large changes in nature compared to the present situation, and there might also be substantial challenges to the industry and infrastructure. Cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus) is today a common species in the Barents Region, but changes in climate may result in a decrease of this popular berry plant. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk IPCC UN climate panel “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change” (IPCC) was founded by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UN Environmental Program (UNEP) in 1988. So far IPCC have published four reports describing the environmental situation of the world. The latest was published in 2007. The three earlier main reports were published in 1990, 1995 and 2001. The reports are said to be the most important professional foundation to the international politic of climate. Facts about the IPCC report 2007 • A total of 800 contributing authors and 450 main authors from 130 countries participate in the preparation of the fourth report. • 2500 scientific experts participate in the hearing processes carried out when the Panel on Climate Change writes the report. • The experts participating in the work are chosen by virtue of their professional expertise and are mainly from universities, academies, scientific institutions and meteorological institutes. For more information UN climate panel (IPCC): http://www.ipcc.ch/ Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT) has a coordinating role towards IPCC: http://www.sft.no/tema_40241.aspx ACIA Monitoring of the arctic environment “The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme”, is one of the fields of activity of the Arctic Council, which is a circumpolar cooperation where Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, USA, Canada and Russia, in addition to representatives from the groups of arctic indigenous people participate. Arctic Council was founded in 1996 as an expansion of the arctic environmental cooperation. In November 2004 the report “Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (ACIA) was proposed. Almost 300 scientists from all arctic countries took part in the formulation of the report, where they documented that the Arctic suffer some of the fastest and strongest climate changes on earth. For more information: Arctic Council: http://www.arctic-council.org/ Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA): http://www.acia.uaf.edu/ Other literature: NINA report no 262. Nature in change. Terrestrial nature monitoring in 2006: Ground vegetation, epiphytes, rodents and birds. Erik Framstad (red.) 7 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 8 By JoLynn Carroll, Akvaplan-niva Email: [email protected] Coming up ON THIN ICE The current melting of the polar ice cap has reached a level that is well outside of natural cycles over the past 800,000 years. This trend is caused by global warming, threatening not just polar bears but the entire arctic marine ecosystem. Long-term joint Russian-Norwegian research in the Barents Sea is providing new insights into global warming impacts for the Barents Sea ecosystem The Barents Sea is one of the most dynamic and productive ecosystems in the world, supporting food webs that culminate in large populations of seabirds, mammals, and species targeted by regional fisheries. This highly productive arctic marginal sea may be particularly sensitive to climate perturbations due to expected disproportionate warming of the Arctic. Recent observations have revealed significant reductions in sea ice cover and thickness and increased air and ocean temperatures, indicating that we may already be seeing the early warning signs of an ecosystem on the verge of dramatic changes. These changes will lead to potentially serious consequences for the sustainable management and development of the natural and socioeconomic resources of the Barents Sea. Arctic marine ecosystems are, in general, characterized by comparatively few trophic levels and tight linkages between pelagic (living in the sea at middle or surface level) and benthic (bottom living) ecosystem components. Thus even bottom-dwelling organisms that live far beneath the sea surface may be affected by global warming. The characteristics of benthic fauna, many of which are long-lived and sessile, make them ideal integrators and indicators of environmental changes. For over 15 years, Akvaplan-niva has been cooperating with Russian partners at the St. Petersburg Zoological Institute, Murmansk Marine Biological Institute, and Institute on Marine Fisheries and Oceanography in the study of the biological communities inhabiting the Barents seafloor. Joint scientific teams comprised of researchers from these institutes have joined together to compile historical data sets spanning the past 100 years. These teams have Fish is the main food to the Atlantic Puffin (Fratercula arctica), but crustaceous and chaetopoda are also important food sources. The position of the ice edge is important to the seabirds, since access to prey is better near the ice edge than out in the open sea. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk 8 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 successfully reconstructed patterns in benthic macrofaunal invertebrate community composition, comparing these with environmental variables, including sea temperature, atmospheric pressure, sea ice extent, as well as human disturbances such as fisheries trawling. Examination of the combined data set has facilitated the identification of community changes over time, providing valuable new information and insights into the responses of marine ecosystems to environmental perturbations. A spatial trend has been identified through this analysis, indicating that communities living at the ice edge have greater biomass than in adjacent and otherwise similar areas in predominantly open water or quasi-permanently ice covered areas. Scientists have also observed that over time, benthic community biomass responds to changes in sea water temperature with observed reductions in benthic biomass during colder periods and increases in biomass during warmer periods. These results are being integrated with other arctic field research activities, laboratory exper- Side 9 Benthos on the bottom of Raudfjorden, Svalbard. ©Bjørn Solberg Gulliksen iments and synthesis efforts coordinated by the Arctic Marine Ecosystem Network (ARCTOS), a consortium of arctic researchers based in Northern Norway in order to provide a basis for assessing the possible consequences of climate change on the entire Barents Sea ecosystem. What might a future with less ice mean for arctic marine ecosystems? A warmer arctic with reduced sea ice coverage is expected to lead to a significant shift in the relative contribution of food items for benthic communities. In the Barents Sea, benthic organisms are dependent upon algae that are associated with arctic sea ice (ice algae) as well as phytoplankton as food. There are biochemical differences in these food items, in particular, ice algae contains a higher concentration of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAS). Less ice algae and more phytoplankton will result in differences in food quality and can lead to risks for benthic organisms through changes in their allocation of energy to growth, reproduction and maintenance activities. Major shifts in benthic community composition are thus expected with a multitude of potential cascading effects for other components of the marine food web. Major consequences for Barents Sea fisheries industry are expected because many commercially important species depend on the benthos as a food source. 9 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 10 DO WE NEED SNOW AND ICE? By Pål Prestrud, Director of CICERO – Center for International Climate and Environmental Research To the people in the north the thought of winter bring up very different associations, ranging from irritation about slippery pavements and heavy snow ploughing to the joy of skiing trips – a day with snowboard in the hills, or the beautiful sight of landscape covered with snow. Many places the last winters have been so warm, and the snow conditions so bad, that profiled Norwegian ski stars have formed their own campaign to save the winter. For many people this concern will seem like a luxury problem, but snow and ice have much more important purposes than being a playground to Homo ludens – the playing human. They are important components of the climate system of the earth. Less snow and ice will lead to an increase of global warming and hundreds of millions of people will be affected directly or indirectly. With a few exceptions all parts of the cryosphere, which is the scientific collective term on snow, sea ice, glaciers and permafrost, are melting. The Arctic Sea ice has the fastest decrease, while the sea ice in the Antarctic is stable or 10 shows a slight increase. The summer of 2005 and 2006 more than a fifth of the sea ice in the Arctic were missing compared to the average of the last 20-30 years, and the rate of the reduction is increasing. Almost half of the ice models predict an ice-free Arctic ocean in the summer of 2080, but some of the models indicate that this might occur as early as in 2040. The models are conservative. Actual observations indicate that the sea ice will decrease faster than the maximum speed stated by the models. We know from satellite measurements that the snow-cover at the northern hemisphere in March-April has decreased with seven to ten per- cent during the last years. In most of the area we may expect a further strong decrease, except a few places in Siberia and Canada where increased precipitation will produce thicker snow-cover. The permafrost covers 20-25 percent of the land areas on the northern hemisphere. All measurements carried out indicates that the temperature in the upper layers of the permafrost all over the Arctic have increased considerably. Large-scale melting of the permafrost is not yet been proved, but a heavy decrease in the distribution of permafrost is expected if the global warming continues. Almost all over the world the alpine and BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 arctic glaciers are declining dramatically. For instance it may be expected that 40-80 percent of the glaciers in Himalaya will disappear during this century. The great ice masses on Greenland and in the Antarctic are decreasing slowly, but in Greenland the speed of the ice reduction has more than doubled in 2-3 years. To a great surprise for the researchers, large movements in the ice masses have suddenly arisen. This has brought about a great deal of uncertainty among the researchers about the prediction of what will happen to these ice masses during a global warming, and how fast a possible meltdown will take place. At the event of less snow and ice there is a great risk of a reinforcement of the global warming. One reason is that bare ground and open water absorbs the heat of the sunrays while snow and ice reflect them back into space. To illustrate the point: If all the snow and ice disappears it will have a twice as big warming effect on the earth than the amount of greenhouse gasses we have released into the atmosphere so far. Another reason is the possible release of great amounts of greenhouse gasses because of a faster decomposition of organic material, and the melting of methanehydrates (frozen methane gas) when the permafrost melts. There is enough carbon stored in the permafrost to contribute to a considerable increase in the greenhouse effect. The increase of the sea level as a consequence of the melting of the glaciers on land might have extensive direct global consequences for many low-lying lands, and for infrastructure concentrated in the coastal areas. The present increase of the sea level is a little more than 3 millimetre/year, and is mainly caused by the fact that warm water takes up more space than cold Side 11 water. As mentioned above there is great uncertainty about what may happen with the ice masses on Greenland an in Antarctica during a global warming, but the potential increase of sea level from these are 65-70 meter. Even a 20 percent melting of the ice on Greenland and five percent melting of the ice in Antarctica will lead to an increase of the sea level at four to five meters. The formation of deep water in the polar sea areas, which is an important driving force of the world’s sea streams, may be affected if the sea ice decrease or the supply of freshwater from melting of glaciers and from precipitation increase. UNs climate panel for instance, thinks the Gulf Stream, which contribute to our warm climate, may be reduced by 25 percent during this decade as a result of changes in these factors. More than 40 percent of the world’s population are directly or indirectly dependent on water from rivers which have their origin in alpine areas with snow or glaciers. The decrease of snow and glaciers will not necessarily have a negative impact on all these people, but there is a considerable risk that changed water flow in many of these rivers will increase the existing problems many of these people have concerning access to water for household, agriculture, power supplies and industry. This will primarily strike the poor people. The water flow is expected to increase in many of these rivers the next twenty to thirty years, but the flow will then decrease. The frequency of floods and mudslides will increase during the first stage, while problems with water supply may not be critical until the second stage. At least 200 million people are critically dependent on melting water from glaciers. For instance in the drought periods, almost all the water in some rivers in Central Asia, Peru and Chile is melting water from glaciers. If the melting of snow and ice continues with the same pace as today it`s obvious to the population in the Arctic that they will be facing quite new challenges. Indigenous groups will gradually get difficulties maintaining their traditional trade and their traditional way of living. This is happening already. Infrastructure built on permafrost will be exposed because melting permafrost is unstable and subsides. For the ones having capital and competence it`s however possible to solve the problems in a technological way. New possibilities will also appear. The conditions for farming will be improved. The sea ice is an effective barrier to sea transport. Decreased sea ice will undoubtedly increase the accessibility to the Arctic Ocean and increase the possibilities for exploiting the large petroleum resources likely to be on the continental shelf surrounding the Polar Ocean. In the wake of the interest for resource exploitation in the Arctic, many of the jurisdictionally conflicts that exists in this area are made topical. The ecological systems that are connected to tundra and sea ice will be especially vulnerable when snow and ice disappear. The species in these systems – many of them are character species to the Arctic that we already know well; polar bear, reindeer, walrus and the like – are dependent on ice and snow to exist. They have no places to emigrate when it gets warmer. It`s a paradox that the diversity of species is expected to increase as a consequence of the immigration from the south, while many of the traditionally polar species will get problems. Snow and ice in Adventdalen, Svalbard ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk 11 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 12 How permanent is the PERMAFROST? By Galina Mazhitova, Komi Science Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences Thawing of terrestrial permafrost induced by the climate warming will expose significant amounts of presently frozen organic matter to decomposition. The decomposing organic matter will deliver additional amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. If the greenhouse gases are responsible for the warming, then the permafrost thawing can additionally accelerate the warming. 12 Permafrost in the Barents region The International Permafrost Association defines permafrost as “ground that remains at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years”. In the Barents region continuous permafrost occurs in the north of Russia and on the Arctic Ocean islands, whereas discontinuous permafrost occurs also in Finland, Sweden and continental Norway. Despite occupying large territories, permafrost of the region is a marginal part of the huge Eurasian permafrost area. As any margin, it is more dynamic compared to the main part. The reasons for that is predominant discontinuity and “high” temperatures of permafrost (few degrees below 0°C). Since the Pleistocene (1.8 million to ~10 000 years ago) when it had formed, permafrost of the region experienced periods of partial degradation and restoring. Its southern border shifted from south to north and back again by hundreds of kilometers. Permafrost response to global warming Permafrost monitoring conducted by Russian geologists in Komi and Nenets during the last 35 years, shows that permafrost temperatures gradually increase. The Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) demonstrates that the depth of seasonal (summer) ground thaw above permafrost also has increased in most sites during the recent decade. “Warm” permafrost of the Barents region is especially sensitive to climate changes. Though so far the observed increase in the depth of thaw is moderate, it can be attributed to disturbance of natural climatic ciclicity by global warming. Researchers model permafrost behavior under climate warming. Results obtained by Vladimir Romanovsky from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks in cooperation with Russian scientists show that in Komi, permafrost thawing will commence in most cases within 10-60 years after a moderate warming (3°C by 2085) has started. Areas with BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 13 A striking feature of permafrostaffected terrain is “patterned grounds”, i.e. discernibly ordered, more or less symmetrical morphological patterns of ground. Patterned grounds differ in mechanisms of their formation, however, in most cases volumetric expansion of freezing water is involved which causes differential ground displacement. ©Alexander Kalmykov. must be utilized. The largest problem with these techniques is not the unwillingness of engineers to use them but the huge costs. The only acceptable strategy is nevertheless, long-term investments that will pay back over time. Permafrost thawing can accelerate global warming A woody apartment house in Vorkuta, Russia. Inhabitants closed openings in the ventilated cellar designed to keep temperature low under the house and prevent permafrost from thawing. Soon after the house began to subside and crook. ©Galina Mazhitova. “warm” and sensitive mineral soil will likely react to increased warming by developing a permanent taliks within 15 years. Talik is a layer of permanently unfrozen ground occurring between permafrost and a seasonally (in winter) frozen ground layer. The much colder peatland areas are expected to react more slowly developing a permanent taliks in 70-75 years. Permafrost degradation challenges permafrost engineers Permafrost degradation will affect urban and industrial infrastructure, first of all, due to spatially differential ground subsidence. GIS overlays were prepared for the Usa River basin under the PERUSA project, funded by the European Commission. The Usa River is the largest tributary of the Pechora with its basin area around 95000 km2. It appeared that 60% of Permafrost distribution in the Northern Circumpolar Area (permafrost occurring south of 50°N not shown). The scheme is derived by Galina Mazhitova from the more detailed IPA permafrost map. the basins infrastructure (towns and settlements, motor and railroads, pipelines, power and communication lines) is located in the “high risk” areas (with permafrost temperatures between 0 and -2°C). Moreover, between 18-81% of the infrastructure in the “high risk” areas is located on peaty grounds with high ice content and hence, potential subsidence. The basin is experiencing a sharp increase in oil/gas activities with new development mostly in the permafrost terrain. To prevent serious environmental disasters caused by damaged oil pipelines, special safety measures and construction techniques Permafrost contains significant amounts of organic matter. Permafrost thawing will expose it to decomposition in the course of which additional amounts of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) will be released to the atmosphere. If the greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for the ongoing warming, then, given the large permafrost carbon pool, permafrost thawing can additionally accelerate the warming. The situation is complicated by oppositely directed processes operating at the same time. Increased air temperatures will accelerate plant photosynthesis associated with carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere and with increased deposition of soil litter. As a result, certain amounts of carbon will replenish a relatively inert soil carbon pool. The future balance of these processes will determine if permafrostaffected soils are a sink for atmospheric carbon, or an additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Researchers from different countries currently work at the problem. In the Barents Region, the CARBO-North project funded by the European Commission was launched in 2006 aiming in quantifying past, present and future carbon balances with the main study areas located in Komi and Nenets, Russia. 13 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 14 GLOBAL WARMING: Reality or Pseudo-Serious Problem? By Valery Barcan, Lapland Strict Nature Reserve The current (2006-2007) unusually warm winter has awaken an increased interest of the weather and climate by the general public, and thereby mass media have got a very gratifying subject for discussion: What is happening in nature? Whether the Earth is getting warmer and if so, what natural changes are expected for humans in this relation? To be honest, this situation reminds me of the question from the Soviet comedy “The Carnival Night” – Is there life on Mars? First of all it is worth noting that the most important meteorological instruments, thermometer and barometer, appeared in the seventeenth century and regular instrumental meteorological observations started not earlier than in the nineteenth century, that is about 150 years ago. Such is indeed the age of the information on climate available for us. All our knowledge on climate before the nineteenth century is, in essence, information about natural manifestations of consequences entailed by variations in climate rather than data on climate itself. For instance, researchers take samples layer by layer from a peatbog of let’s say 5-6 m depth. On the Kola Peninsula the deepest peat layers dates 7000 - 8000 years back and each layer is examined for plant residues and pollen. The result is a picture of plants grew at the specific site 1000 - 3000 - 5000 years ago and respectively mean temperature of the area at that time is determined. This method is used for periods not older than 10 000-12 000 years ago, i.e. after the Ice Age. For the more hoary times, hundreds of thousands and million years ago, climate conditions are estimated, for example, based on botanolite and zoolite residues and using some other quite complicated approaches. We will not go that far in the past. At the end of eighteenth – beginning of nineteenth century, a famous Russian writer and agronomist Dr. Bolotov described how a string of sledges delivered frozen fish to St.-Petersburg and Moscow every winter, from the Kama River and other rivers rich in fish in the Ural region. In some years there were neither snow nor frost, and in December-January it was so warm that fish became rotten and were discarded back to the rivers. Periods closer to the present, November and December 1963 were warm and rainy and the New Year of 1964 on the Kola Peninsula we celebrated in the rain. One of the winters at the end of the 1980’s people in the town of Monchegorsk bought cheap sheep’s Hillock bog with permafrost. ©Bjørn Franzen, Bioforsk 14 carcasses in the end of November with intent to preserve them as usual in the open air, on the balconies. In December - January, rotten sheep’s carcasses could be found all over in garbage cans and even in the streets as a dainty for homeless dogs. I limit myself to the examples above; otherwise they will not fit into an article size but very likely in a thick book. The propagandists for horror stories about global warming, like to terrify us that in the future the permafrost in the Siberia will melt away, resulting in towns and villages drowning in mud. On the Kola Peninsula as the rest of Fennoscandia, there is no real permafrost although it is almost wholly located beyond the Arctic Circle. Hillock bogs with permafrost inside the hillock are typical of the Kola Peninsula. The southern limit of such hillocks with permafrost inside is located approximately BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 at 67° 50'N, i.e. slightly southward of the town of Monchegorsk. In the vicinity of Monchegorsk I have found 13 bogs with ice core hillocks, and there are references in the literature to three of them: the two first were described in 1935, i.e. 70 years ago, and one in 1921, i.e. 85 years ago. At that time they were at the same location and of the same state as today. The slightest increase in the annual sum of daily air temperatures may lead to melting of the ice core of the hillocks. However, ice in the bog hillocks has remained, as is shown by our example, during almost the whole recent century and is not going to thaw in the nearest future. There are periodic fluctuations of mean temperatures in different areas of the globe and in particular in the areas with the aforementioned bog hillocks with permafrost that, as suggested by the pollen analysis, formed approximately 3000 years ago. The hillocks have probably existed for these three millennia. Today the main supporters of the climate warming hypothesis are British researchers. At hundreds of conferences they demonstrate a frightening map in crimson colour where our mournful future is depicted: mean temperature rise by 4-5 °C in the Arctic, melting of per- Side 15 mafrost in Siberia, the depth of which now reaches a kilometer, thawing of glaciers, an increase of sea level, flood of coastal regions etc. In the opinion of Dr. Khabibullo Abdusamatov, Head of Laboratory of Space Exploration of the Main (Pulkovo) Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Science, the decisive effect on the global climate variations is made not by human activities but by variations in the solar radiance intensity. He noted that this conclusion is supported by NASA experts revealed the concurrent climate warming on Mars in the period between 1999 and 2005. Now the solar radiance has already entered into decreasing phase of the secular cycle but thermal inertia of the Earth is still responsible for global warming in the recent years and we experience the so-called “effect of a hot frying pan”. In this relation a question may arise: What is behind such a stubborn but not proven statement about global climate warming? Propa- gandists of this point of view know the point at issue as well as us, but give the impression of deliberately avoiding seeing obvious things. It seems the hypothesis of global warming by burning of organic fuel indefatigably defend nuclear lobby, because the thermoelectric and hydraulic power stations are the main competitors of the nuclear power engineering. Building of the last is hampered by the fear of the consequences by nuclear accidents. I have some considerations regarding this matter but to show suspicion without having evidence is disgraceful of a scientist because as was said by Admiral of the Fleet, Mr. Makarov – “we write about what we see and what we do not see we do not write about”. At this point I leave the discussion of this undoubtedly interesting topic but one should always remember that the climate variability does not depend on us. Palsa peatland. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk 15 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 Side 16 Stable and predictable weather conditions are key essential components of survival of Sámi livelihoods in the European North or ’Sapmi’, Sámi homeland that spreads from Southern Norway to the Eastern end of Kola Peninsula. Snow and knowledge of snow is survival to the Sámi who are the Indigenous peoples of this region as recognized by International Law. They have occupied and lived in this region since Time Immemorial. Sámi knowledge of the land can be called ’traditional knowledge’ or ’Indigenous knowledge’. The Sámi are owners of this knowledge and carry it among their distinct cultures. Knowledge of Snow, Weather and the Landscape – SNOWCHANGE YEARS with the Sámi By Tero Mustonen and Mika Nieminen www.snowchange.org, [email protected] Elina Helander-Renvall, Sámi reindeer owner and researcher from the Arctic Centre, Rovaniemi, Finland has stated that ’the Sámi have a knowledge of their own. This knowledge is best expressed in the Sámi languages.’ Sámi knowledge has been a target of active suppression by missionaries and other nation-state actors, investigation by outside anthropologists and other academics and source of ridicule by mainstream societies of Norway, Finland, Sweden and Russia. Today some new recognition of the inherent value and detailed observational knowledge of nature are appreciated by Western science and institutions, but still the basic colonial power relationship often remains. 16 In the contemporary study of global and Arctic climate change, the traditional knowledge and observations by Sámi have emerged as a focal point. However, the scientific institutions only want to acquire reports of observations by the Sámi and other Arctic Indigenous peoples, without willingness to address the root causes of the ecological, colonial catastrophe that the industrial development and colonial process in the Arctic has caused. The Snowchange Cooperative based in Finland launched a partnership in 2001 on a new, post-colonial attempt to study and advance Sámi participation in finding solutions to the problems of weather and climate changes. From the start it was a partnership with the Department of Environmental Engineering, Tampere Polytechnic, Finland, but since 2005 it has been an independent organisation devoted to the cultural, scientific and political advancement of the local cultures of the Arctic. Elina Helander-Renvall, head of Arctic Indigenous Peoples Office in Rovaniemi, Finland has been a key partner as well as the Sámi Council. In Sapmi the partner communities are Nesseby and Tana area (Norway), Vuotso, Inari, Utsjoki (Finland), Jokkmokk area (Sweden) and Lovozero district of Kola Peninsula (Russian Federation). SnowchangeSámi cooperation is a community and family BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:43 driven process where the local people are the key actors in decision making and key knowledge holders (see textbox for more details on the project milestones). In short Sámi experiences include impacts on reindeer herding from ice rain that freezes the ground in autumn, preventing reindeer from accessing the lichen. This has in addition to direct reindeer death other linked impacts to society – unsafe economic and social conditions, increased costs of feeding and fuel in reindeer herding, unpredictability of snow and weather conditions. Winters are warmer in Sapmi, and snowfall has shifted to spring. In addition to impacts of livelihoods there are several site-specific weather and ecological impacts from the new, unstable conditions, such as lack of proper freezing of water ways in Kola Peninsula, melting earlier in the spring and so forth. The Snowchange Sámi materials are mostly collected as interviews on oral histories of ecology, tradition and livelihoods. Also group sessions with community people, participant observation where researchers have worked with the Sámi as reindeer herders and fishermen, documentary films, diary entries on weather and dream knowledge 2003-2004, and community participation in international and national events are included. This process is ongoing and forms the basis of community based monitoring network in Sapmi on ecological and climate changes. The Sámi are owners of the knowledge which is documented. Therefore the Snowchange network is markedly different from the previous classical academic studies of Sámi which very often operate on colonial principles – the Sámi benefit little from participation in such activities. The Snowchange partnership with the several Sámi communities is an on-going attempt at balanced dialogue between traditional Finnish people and the Sámi in a new, post-colonial context. The question of survival of Sámi is connected to the survival of what little remains of forest knowledge of Finns. At the current framework we need positive action and resistance to the forces that are spiralling the peoples of the Barents Region into the current cataclysm of further colonisation, resource extraction and life of greed. New models and new ways of thinking are needed. Sámi knowledge and traditions, Side 17 Sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) and the Coastal Saami of Varanger have a relationship dating back to Time Immemorial. Ocean is a crucial resource base of the Coastal Saami who are starting a new partnership in the Varanger region of Norway with Snowchange. ©Tero Mustonen. which have developed over centuries, are excellent guides to a re-traditionalized future of the region. Crisis of European civilizations is first and foremost a spiritual crisis, severing of connections from nature, which led to the colonisation of the Sámi and condemnation of their sophisticated cultures and languages as ’primitive’ in the height of modernity. It is high time we listened to the other story that exists, and knows the land – in listening perhaps; just perhaps, we will find a human being within ourselves as well. And that is the only hope left in the current multi-faceted crisis of the Arctic – re-learning of our beings. Tero Mustonen is a researcher, poet and fisherman who works as Head of International Affairs of the Snowchange Cooperative, Finland. He is with Mika Nieminen, Elina Helander-Renvall, Sergey Zavalko and Hanna Eklund an author of the ACIA Report Chapter of Sámi Knowledge of Climate Change. Contact www.snowchange.org, [email protected] The Snowchange Cooperative has focused on supporting Indigenous education and survival of Saami traditional knowledge. Grassroots initiatives have resulted in meetings between Lena Antipina (left), Head of the School of Kolumskaya, Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Siberia, Russia with teacher of Saami language and handicrafts ElleMaaret Näkkäläjärvi (middle) from Inari School in Finland during Snowchange 2007 Conference "Traditions of the North". Educational cooperation included visits to the nomadic reindeer camps of the Chukchi people in Kolyma, led by reindeer herder Pjotr Kaurgin (right). ©Tero Mustonen. IMPORTANT EVENTS IN THE SNOWCHANGE PROJECT: 2001, the Snowchange project was launched. Snowchange 2002 International Conference on Indigenous Observations of Climate Change, Tampere, Finland. Snowchange 2003, International Conference in Murmansk, Russia. In 2003 co-reseacher Eija Syrjämäki worked with Sámi Council Vice President Stefan Mikaelsson to launch new community process in Jokkmokk area of Swedish Sapmi. 2004, first four years of community materials were collected into an English language, publication “Snowscapes, Dreamscapes”. 2004, ACIA Conference key findings of the Sámi – Snowchange cooperation were presented to international scientific audiences, media and stakeholders. 2004, The Sámi observations were collected to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment report released by the Arctic Council (www.acia.uaf.edu). This represented a progressive attempt to find a dialogue between the Indigenous peoples and scientists on the study of climate change. 2005, reform of the Snowchange work as an independent cooperative. Snowchange 2005, International conference, Indigenous peoples of the Arctic, Anchorage, Alaska, USA . 2006, extensive community visits were made to Murmansk region, a pilot attempt to include Eastern Sámi communities to the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Programme of the Arctic Council in 2008 – 2010. 2007, diversification of Sámi – Snowchange partnership with community-based monitoring in Kaldoaivi and Inari regions of Finnish Sapmi, new community work in Nesseby, Norway being planned, nomadic reindeer school cooperation between Inari school and the Chukchi Nutendli nomadic school in Republic of Sakha-Yakutia, Siberia, Russia on traditional knowledge of snow (Muohta Snow Project 2006-2007). Snowchange 2007 Workshop ’Traditions of the North’ in Neriungri, Republic of SakhaYakutia, Siberia, Russia. 17 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 18 When access to winter pastures DISAPPEARS INTO THE OCEAN… 1 By Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten, Department of Biology, University of Tromsø In recent years there has been an increased focus on climatic changes. Mass media is full of material that in one way or another are connected to the climatic variation we are experiencing. These variations are not uniform, but give different effects dependent upon time and place. There are reports of earlier spring, wetter and warmer summers, or absence of snow and cold during the winter. It is exactly such changes in winter climate and the effect this can have for reindeer husbandry in a concession Sami village in Tornedalen2, Sweden, this article addresses. The grazing area for Liehittäjä concession Sami village, and their 1200 reindeer, is located at the end of the Tornedalen Valley, between Loppio in the north and out to Malören Lighthouse in Haparanda’s archipelago in the south, from Kalix River in the west to Torne River in the east. The concession Sami village has access to the vigorous summer pastures between Haparanda and Övertorneå. What distinguishes this concession Sami village from other Sami villages in Sweden is that the winter pasture is primarily located out in the Haparanda archipelago – that is out on a number of larger and smaller islands in the Gulf of Bothnia. 18 The sea ice is important for fall-, winter- and spring reindeer migration At the onset of fall the reindeer herd will begin wandering southward towards the winter pastures of their own accord. The members of the concession Sami village follows the movement from the sidelines and ensure that the animals do not cross into the grazing areas of neighbouring concession Sami villages. The animals begin to gather at the coast during the end of November-early December while waiting for the sea ice to become strong enough to carry them across to Seskarö. Seskarö is an inhabited island with road connections, and serves as a distribution point for the concession Sami village winter pasturelands. Here the Sami village has set up a fence and feeding places, and the island is the start point for all activity related to winter grazing. In order to get here the reindeer herds are totally dependent on a cold period that allows the sea ice to freeze and be thick enough to support the whole herd. The concession Sami village has experienced delays in the onset of this cold period, and this has lead to substantial extra work. Without the cold period the ice is too weak for the animals to cross and they remain grazing on BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 a strip of land between the highway (E4) and the shore. This is a situation that demands intensive herding from the concession Sami village such that hazardous traffic situations can be avoided. If the ice does not form before the middle of December, alternative transport to Seskarö has to be organized. Seskarö is just a part of the concession Sami village winter grazing area. Access to the other islands further out in the archipelago is a critical factor for how many reindeer survive the winter. After a short stay on Seskarö the herd is divided into smaller herds and released onto different islands. The quality of the sea ice is also a factor influencing the safety of the reindeer herders. Intensive herding during winter occurs up to 20-25 km from the coast, and an eventual accident out here can have catastrophic results. Reindeer owners have great respect for the sea ice and this is always an important subject for discussions. When the herders meet they exchange information on the herds and on the conditions of the ice. It is not only the ice thickness that is important. Knowledge about where water has been pressed up onto the ice surface is also important. With extended southern winds the water levels will rise and water steams up through cracks in the ice accumulating between the ice layer and under the snow cover. In some places the water on top of the ice can be as much as 50-60 cm deep. If one gets stuck in such areas it can be very difficult to get a snow scooter loose and one quickly becomes wet. Wet clothes and a stuck snow scooter 20 kilometres offshore is a situation most will wish to avoid. Sometimes there is so much water on the ice that it is irresponsible to move onto the ice at all. In such situations it’s to wait for the water to freeze again before it’s possible to get access to the reindeer herds. How the herds are divided is dependant upon pasture access and predators. In the winter of 2003 the concession Sami village had wolves on the winter pasture, and most of the herd was taken back to Seskarö where they got access to supplemental fodder (hay) until the spring movement in April. Under normal conditions they use the different islands at different periods of the winter, and as a general rule they rotate the use of the pastures in a circle from west to east and back again. The condition of the sea ice is also a factor in determining when the spring move towards summer pastures shall start. The concession Sami village carefully follows changes in the ice conditions to be prepared to move the herds on short notice. An increase in air temperature, but also increases in southern winds, can cause an increase in over-water on Side 19 the ice that makes the spring move more difficult. It has happened that spring came so quickly that it was impossible to complete the spring move in a normal fashion. It was then very hard work to get the herds gathered again on Seskarö, where they were loaded onto trailers and driven the 70 km to the summer pastures. There are many disadvantages with this solution. For the first, loading and off-loading is an unnecessary stress for the animals; second, it is expensive; and last, but not least, it is very difficult to keep the animals on the summer pastures. When they are driven to the summer pasture there is a tendency for the herd to migrate back towards the coast where spring has come further along than up on the summer range. The herd has to be held together and intensively herded for the first two weeks. Should the weather change and become cold again then this herding period must be extended. Small changes – big consequences It is obvious that this local adaptation – with winter pastures out on the archipelago – is very vulnerable to climatic changes. In order to maintain this traditional management method one are dependent upon adequate sea ice forming in November/December, and that it remain safe to travel on both for animals and men. Liehittäjä concession Sami village is special because of its dependence on sea ice, but there are many examples of Sami villages that move their reindeer herds over large watersheds. Also here will spring and fall movements be in a danger zone and alternative migration routes must be devised. The alternative for such areas is to move their herds with trucks. Should the climatic changes cause the ice to form much later, or cause it to break up in the winter season, then reindeer husbandry will be faced with an insurmountable problem and the Liehittäjä concession Sami village will be threatened. In many ways this concession Sami village serves as an early warning to all of reindeer husbandry. It is perhaps here that the effects of climate change on the reindeer industry as a whole will be observed first. This paper is based on field data collected for my doctoral thesis in social anthropology at the Uppsala University (Jernsletten 2007). 2 For more information about how the concession Sami villages diverge from other Sami villages in Sweden, see Jernsletten and Beach (2005). The challenges and dilemmas of concession reindeer management in Sweden. In: Reindeer management in northernmost Europe: Linking practical and scientific knowledge in social-ecological systems. B. Forbes, M. Bölter, N. Gunslayet. Rovaniemi, Springer-Verlag, or Jonny-Leo Jernsletten (2007). ”Med rett til å gjete...” Utfordringer og muligheter i Liehittäjä konsesjonssameby, PhD dissertation, Department of Cultural Anthropology and Ethnology, Uppsala University. 1 Edge herding on the winter range. Seskar-Furö in the background. ©Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten View over the sea ice looking east from Malören lighthouse. ©Johnny-Leo L. Jernsletten 19 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 20 What does climate change mean FOR FINNISH LAPLAND? By Tapio Tynys, Metsähallitus, Finland As a small boy, before my family moved from southern Finland to settle in the north, I was taught that Lapland is a cold, dark land – a place where living conditions are tough. This was by large, an accurate description. With this in mind, the idea of Lapland’s climate becoming warmer and its summers longer does not at first sight seem such a bad prospect. History also supports this view: periods of cold climate have brought famine, misery and emigration, while warmer periods have meant prosperity in all respects. I would be surprised if the average person in Lapland had much against the idea of warmer summers and milder winters. However, the almost universally bleak future scenarios presented by scientists raises the question – what exactly does climate change mean for us? 20 No change in the light climate The debate on climate change has focussed only on the thermal climate. Virtually nothing has been said about the light climate, perhaps understandably, because it will not change. The Earth will continue to orbit on its course despite greenhouse gases. The polar night of Lapland – the period during which the sun does not rise above the horizon at all – will in a hundred years be just as long as it is today. The months of May, June and July will remain the season of the midnight sun, also a century from now. Plants in the region are, however, adapted to both the light and thermal climates. They begin preparing for winter already before the autumn equinox, even though weather conditions may still be warm. The trigger for this change is the shortening length of day. At the end of winter, however, a different mechanism is in play. During the spring equinox in late March, plants remain in a complete dormant state despite the fact that there is sufficient light during this time to cause snow-blindness. So, whereas the wintering of vegetation is triggered by light, the start of the growing season is brought on by warm weather. The seasonal variation of the thermal climate follows the rhythm of the light climate with a couple of months delay. Plants have adapted to this cycle. But what if this delay is changed? Winters in Lapland are predicted to become milder by several degrees centigrade. One result of this will be a shortening of the snow cover period. Snowless, dark Octobers will become the norm. In spring, warm weather may melt the snow already in early April. Once the snow cover has vanished the ground will warm rapidly, causing plants to ‘think’ that summer is on its way. This entails a risk: what if such a heat wave is followed by an influx of a cold polar air mass, in other words, a cold snap? The result could be catastrophic for plants that have already begun to grow, as in April the sun is still too low to heat as strongly as it does in the summer. A premature onset of growth like this is probably the largest single risk posed by climate change in northern Lapland. Will Lapland’s mountain birches (Betaula pubescens ssp. tortuosa) be lost? The two maps show the possible effects of climate change on the vegetation of northern Lapland. The upper map, representing the current status, is based on a biotope inventory carried out by Metsähallitus in the late 1990s. The lower map shows what might be the situation in around 2110. This is, of course, only a crude forecast, but it nevertheless shows the likely direction of change should the climate warm as the latest estimations predict. The forecast map is based on the presumption that practically all alpine areas and mountain birch groves in today's Forest Lapland vegetation zone (approximately the area south of the timber line for Scots pine) will become forested by pine (Pinus sylvestris) or spruce (Picea abies). Another basic assumption was that the Fell Lapland mountain birch zone and the so-called secondary alpine areas, where mountain birches were destroyed by autumnal moths (Epirrita autumnata) in the 1960s, will become pine forest. Destruction by autumnal moths and grazing will accelerate the colonization by pine. The third basic assumption is that the exten- BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 21 The upper map shows the forest composition in Lapland in 2000, and the lower map shows a model of how the forest composition might look like in 2110, with the ongoing climatic change. Generated by Tapio Tynys and Juha Sihvo, Metsähallitus, Finland sive alpine areas in Fell Lapland will not become colonialised by mountain birch, but will rather remain treeless due to autumnal moth damage and intensive summer grazing. The eggs of the autumnal moth perish in winter temperatures below -36 °C. As such temperatures will no longer occur during milder winters, Lapland’s mountain birches could face rapid destruction. An alternative, entirely feasible and brighter scenario for the mountain birch is that the warming of the climate will eliminate, or at least alleviate, the mass outbreaks of moths that are typical of the Arctic region, thus preventing the outbreaks and levels of destruction that occur today. Less intensive summertime grazing would also contribute to a gradual change from alpine heath to birch grove. Climate change and tourism There is strong faith in the growth of tourism in Finnish Lapland. This is reflected in the substantial construction of new accommodation and service capacity currently underway at the major resorts of Saariselkä, Levi and Ylläs. Whereas the investment boom is not the result of climate warming predictions, it is clear that these forecasts have not intimidated the business community – possibly to the contrary. The thinking is more or less as follows: future snowless winters in southern Finland and the Alps will attract skiers to the north. This may indeed happen. Summertime tourism has not featured greatly in the Finnish climate debate. It has been suggested, however, that the Mediterranean countries may ultimately become too hot for holidaymakers, causing future tourists to choose alternative destinations such as the Baltic coast and, increasingly, Lapland and the Arctic Ocean. Climate change is, however, a two-edged sword. Lapland’s weakness in terms of its tourism potential is its long distance from major population centres. People have to cover long distances to get to Lapland, usually by car or plane. Since traffic is a major source of greenhouse gases and contributes to climate change, the cost of travelling may become – or be made – so high that opportunities for tourism are limited. 21 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 22 TREE-RINGS – A Living Diary of Climate? "We study tree rings to piece together past climates and get a glimpse of the future" says Dr. Gordon Jacoby from Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University, USA. Dendrochronologists study annual growth rings of old trees to learn about past environmental changes. By combining living and dead wood, scientists can extend tree-ring paleoclimatology records back hundreds to thousands of years. What are tree-rings? Trees and shrubs expand in width by the division of cells in a thin layer (called cambium) underneath the bark. Some cells add to the bark, but most add to the wood. In a tree trunk, all the tissue inside the cambium layer is xylem or wood, and all the tissue outside the cambium is the bark. The wood cells carry water and minerals from the roots. These cells are alive when they are produced by the cambium, but when they actually become functioning water-conducting cells, they lose their cell contents and become hollow, microscopic tubes with lignified walls. Each year, a tree forms new cells resulting in a distinct pattern of concentric circles that can be seen on a stump or a cross section of the trunk. These circles are known as growth rings, or annual rings, or tree-rings. The radial growth of one season is composed of a light-coloured inner portion and a darker portion of the growth ring. In early summer, when growth is comparatively rapid, cambium produces numerous large cells with thin walls (called earlywood). Later in the summer, smaller cells with thick walls (called latewood) are produced outside the earlywood. Growth rings are visible due to the macroscopic differences between earlywood and latewood. Dendrochronology and dendroclimatology In order to tell the age of the tree, tree-rings can 22 be counted in either a cross section of the trunk or a core taken from the trunk. The growth patterns of the rings can be studied to determine the conditions a tree lived through. Dating of wood samples from the pattern of tree-ring growth is called dendrochronology. The unique pattern of warm and cold growing seasons creates a corresponding pattern of wide and narrow tree-rings. The dating of tree rings, by itself, is not much use unless the technique can be applied to answer various questions in the earth and ecological sciences. A major application of tree-ring research is dendroclimatology: studying the relationship between tree growth and global climate change. Trees are fascinating in that they have the ability to record environmental changes. Our native trees keep their own diary of climatic changes or other events that affect their growth. Each year a page is added which faithfully records whether that was a lean year or a fat one. Annual rings generally grow wider during warm summers and narrower during cold ones. Growth rings from trees growing in the same area provide a record of local climate during the life of the trees. Trees are living records of past climate and weather. The advantage of using trees to study climate is that those records are available in parts of the world where there are few weather stations and where consistent and accurate records of weather rarely go back more than 100-150 years. Crossdating The most basic principle of dendrochronology is a process known as crossdating. It is a technique that ensures each individual tree-ring is BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 23 By Kauhanen Heikki, M.Sc., METLA, Kolari Research Station build up a first master chronology. This will be extended to the past by additional samples from already felled and old timber. This is possible when the innermost part of the recent sample shows overlapping parts with the outermost part of old samples. Both parts can be cross-dated and linked. Calendar dates to the samples from trees whose dates are not known can be assigned by crossdating their tree-ring patterns against the master chronology. Tracking past climate from tree-rings Ring-width variability in a disk sample taken from an old pine scarred by a fire. ©Tuomo Wallenius. assigned its exact year of formation. Dendrochronologists read the distinctive patterns of wide and narrow rings which appear in pieces of wood from different trees. A sequence of ring-patterns can be built up from timber of many different ages, and this allows each tree-ring to be dated exactly. Their construction starts with coring living trees to In northern Fennoscandia, the width of tree-rings in the stem wood of pine (Pinus sylvestris) show a high positive correlation with summer temperature, in particular July mean temperature. In this area, pine trees are able to reach ages of more than 500 years while dead trees can be well preserved for thousands of years in cold-water lakes. Thus, tree rings from this area offers a great potential for reconstructing a year-to-year record of summer temperature over hundreds to thousands of years. A driving force of the dendrochronological progress is the construction of ever longer chronologies. Samples may be taken from very old living trees such as the Bristlecone pines found in California, which can be over 4,700 years old. In northern Fennoscandia, the longest tree-ring chronologies from a single tree are usually 500-600 years. But the sequence of ring-patterns can be extended by using dead wood, for example subfossil pines. It is the big differences between seasons which cause the distinct tree-rings. The winter with no growth is succeeded by the spring with rapid growth. This is when the light-coloured rings are produced, and these are succeeded by darker rings produced by slower growth later in the summer. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk As a result of recent work by Finnish dendrochronologists, a continuous 7640-year treering chronology for Finnish Lapland is available. It is the longest year-exact conifer treering chronology in Eurasia and the second longest conifer tree-ring chronology in the world. Not only the length but also its exceptional climatic sensitivity (strong connection between ring width and July temperature) provides a great tool for tracking past climate changes. Knowing environmental conditions in the past from tree-ring studies, we can predict future climate trends and fluctuations. 23 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 24 ARCTIC PLANTS are well adapted to climate changes By Kristine Bakke Westergaard, PhD-student in botany Tromsø Museum The global average temperature is increasing, and in the feature we will get warmer summers and warmer and wetter winters in the Arctic. This will make the bioclimatic zones gradually move north, the permafrost will be thawing, and the arctic plants will get competition from the southern species that move north to escape the dryer climate in the south. The plant life of the High north has earlier been described as genetically impoverished and marginal, but this is not correct! They live in one of the world’s harshest climate, and have many suitable adaptations to survive large climatic changes. The question is if they have any areas to survive in, at an even warmer climate? 24 In the northern and arctic areas there are long distances between islands, groups of islands and mainland. Earlier it was believed that such long distances where about insuperable for plant dispersal and that the plant life on both sides of the North-Atlantic must have been isolated through all of the ice ages. Many of our arctic and alpine plants also lack obvious adaptations to long distance dispersal, like for instance berries to bird dispersal, or hairy and winged seeds to wind dispersal. This lead to a long lasting belief that long distance dispersal of plants are rare events. Genetic variation The plants of the High North have trough hundred thousands of years with ice ages and warmer interglacial periods, had a great deal of time to adapt themselves to climate changes. During every ice age they have had to seek protection in refuge areas south of the ice sheet, in large ice free areas in the High North like around the Bering Strait, and perhaps also on mountain peaks projecting above the surface of ice (nunataks) or other ice free areas within the ice sheet (ice free foreland and dried out sea floor). BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 It is presumed that the plants have had enough time to evolve in these refuges to become different from the original species. When the plants have redispersed from the refuges to former ice covered areas, they have met different forms which have evolved differently in other refuges. If these different forms are capable of interbreeding and production of fertile offspring, there will be a possibility of getting new varieties of the species or totally new species. In the animal kingdom it`s rear that the offspring of two different species is fertile, but in the plant kingdom this is very common. Many of these new crossings, or hybrids, are a result of so-called polyploidy – i.e. that two different plant species have produced an offspring which includes the full set of chromosomes from both parents; therefore twice as many as the parents! The new polyploid species are proved to have a better potential of colonizing the new unoccupied areas that are exposed as the sheet of the ice is melting, than the original species with only two sets of chromosomes. It seem to be a clear connection between polyploidy and the ability to survive in an unstable climatic environment with a short growing season. Genetic studies of polyploid plants shows that they are capable of maintaining a high degree of genetic variation, but a large amount of this variation is preserved in each single individual as a number of sets of chromosomes with many different copies of each genus. Many arctic plants rarely reproduce by cross pollination, but go in for self fertilization or vegetative formation. By preserving the genetic variation in each plant individual like this they will be able to avoid inbreeding depression and maybe gain a greater adaptability to different habitats. Side 25 cated that the colonization have occurred after the ice age. Thus we assume that the species we have studied must have dispersed to Svalbard by long distance dispersal after the ice age. All the species studied showed their own dispersal pattern. They have dispersed to Svalbard from Russia (most common), Greenland and Scandinavia (rare). The wind dispersed Mountain Avens (Dryas octopetala) has dispersed mainly from Russia, while the bird dispersed crowberry (Empetrum nigrum coll.) has dispersed from Greenland. Northern Bilberry (Vaccinium uliginosum) came to Svalbard both from Russia and Greenland. The most of the species must have dispersed to Svalbard on several occasions - a number of them probably a great many times. Mountain Avens have for instance dispersed thousands of times, maybe hundreds of thousands, given that many of the seeds didn’t hit the right “gap” with the right local climate where it could sprout to a healthy plant. Most of the seeds probably disperse by the wind over snow and sea ice, by drift ice, drift timber from the large Russian rivers and from birds of passage. It doesn’t seem to be the dispersal itself that limits the plant adaptations to climate changes, but the ability of reaching the location of a suit- Dispersal to Svalbard To be able to predict anything about what ecosystems will look like in the future, we need to know how fast and how long the plants are capable of dispersing at the present. By using molecular genetic tools (DNA-fingerprinting) we have tested more than 4400 individuals of 9 different plant species to get more knowledge about how they are able to disperse across great distances to Svalbard at climate changes. Three of the species we tested have adaptations to bird dispersal (juicy fruits), three of them to wind dispersal (seeds with hairs or wings), and three of them lack obvious adaptations to dispersal. We used Svalbard as a modelling system to study long distance dispersal, because Svalbard was almost entirely covered with ice during the last ice age 20.000 years ago. Indeed it is still debated whether some few, extremely robust plants may have survived in small refuges at Svalbard, but most of the earlier genetic studies have indi- A Mountain Avens (Dryas octopetala) ©Christiaane Hübner Icebergs in Disco Bay, Greenland. These icebergs are so large that it will take many years before they melt, and during this time they are able to drift enormous distances. Growing plants are found on icebergs like this. ©Kristine Bakke Westergaard genetic variation of the high arctic Highland Saxifrage (Saxifraga rivularis) in Svalbard cannot be explained only by long distance dispersal from mainland areas, and thus we cannot exclude that it actually has survived on Svalbard during the last ice age. The genetic variation within each plant species found on Svalbard today, showed that able habitat where they can survive. If the sea ice in the arctic decrease during the winter, e.g. between Russia and Svalbard, is it not for sure that the plants will be able to disperse at the same successful extent. Again the arctic-alpine plants capability of adaptation will be put to the test. The article “Frequent long-distance plant colonization in the changing Arctic” was published in Science Magazine 15. of June 2007. The authors are Inger Greve Alsos, Pernille Bronken Eidesen, Dorothee Ehrich, Inger Skrede, Kristine Bakke Westergaard, Gro Hilde Jacobsen, Jon Y. Landvik, Pierre Taberlet and Christian Brochmann. The research was financed mainly by the NORKLIMA-programme in The Research Council of Norway. 25 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 26 Use of satellite imagery TO MONITOR NATURE Phenology is the knowledge about the season-wise variations in nature and how variation in, for example annual temperature or precipitation can impact plant and animal life. Here in the north we experience large changes in nature throughout the year. And yet we have to understand that seasonal variations are not consistent over the entire planet. Plants and animals in northern areas experience much more extreme seasonal variation than their compatriots in southern latitudes. We are talking about adaptations to the local climatic conditions. Using satellite data we can document the phenological phases in different regions, particularly the beginning and end of the active growth season. 26 By Stein Rune Karlsen, NORUT Satellite imagery observes nature’s cycles Satellite data enables us to monitor both the spatial patterns and changes in nature’s cycles. However, not all satellite data can be used in this purpose. To measure phenological changes, satellite sensors able to measure the relationship between reflected red and infrared light have to be incorporated. This relationship provides us with an excellent estimate for the amount of green in the surface vegetation (i.e. photosynthetic activity). In addition the satellites have to be able to repeatedly take photos of the same area, preferably every day. By measuring the amount of greening each day we can document the start of photosynthesis in the spring (start of growth season) and end of growth season in the autumn (green changing to yellow). Since the beginning of the 1980s we have received data from weather satellites (NOAA-AVHRR), and since 2000 we have received data from several additional satellites specially designed to monitor Earth’s natural environment (TERRAMODIS). The advantage with these additional satellites are that their sensors have much better resolution such that we are able to observe more details from the surface than is possible with the weather satellites. Dependent upon students and teachers, as well as cooperation across national boundaries. In order to accurately interpret the satellite imagery we are totally dependant upon observations made on the ground to calibrate the satellite photos. Observations in the autumn are especially important because phenological changes happen so rapidly and with large local differences. Finland has a well-developed network of research stations (METLA) charged with making phenological observations, while Russia collects data from three nature reserves and the Kirovsk Botanical Gardens on the Kola Peninsula. In Northern Norway ground data is only collected at Bioforsk Svanhovd in Finnmark and Bioforsk Holt in Tromsø. Luckily we also have a school-based project (Phenology of the North Calotte) involving data collection by several schools from Finnmark and the Kola Peninsula, allowing us to cover these regions much better. In order to calibrate the observed ground data with satellite images the data must include the same, comparable phenophases from all four countries. This process was harmonized for the region, and good international cooperation has taken place here since the early 1990s. Nature’s cycles in the North Calotte Region and in Europe In the 1990s several alarming messages were received from Central Europe saying that the growth season was starting earlier and earlier, and this information was used as evidence of ongoing effects from climate change. When NORUT processed data from the weather satellites over Scandinavia from 1982-2002 and measured changes in the growth season that gave a surprising result. Southern Scandinavia showed a trend with an earlier onset of the growth season by more than two weeks, similar to the rest of Europe. While the mountainous regions of southern Scandinavia and the inland regions of the North Calotte showed a stable or BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 even somewhat of a delay to the growth season. However, since 2001 the onset of the growth sea- Side 27 autumn, as evidenced by yellowing of the vegetation, begins about mid-September over most of North-European Lepidoptera (Cosmotriche lobulina) ©Bjørn Franzen, Bioforsk Growth season 50 years in the future? Average onset of the growth season from 2000 – 2005. Measured using the MODIS sensors on the American TERRA satellite. The locations are research stations and schools with phenological ground observations used to interpret satellite imagery. Changes in the onset of the growth season from 1982 – 2002. Based on over 50 000 images from the American NOAA satellites with AVHRR instrumentation on board. son has been much earlier in the North Calotte and the pattern now follows the rest of Europe with an increasingly earlier start to the season. Results using the new generation of satellites show that the area where green-up first occurs in the spring is the narrow strip of coastline between the ocean and mountains in Northern Norway. This often starts as soon as early May, creeping slowly up the mountainside at a rate of six days per 100 meters of elevation. The the North Calotte. Yellow-up in the autumn, seen in relation to green-up in the spring, does not follow a clear elevational pattern from higher lands to lower lands. Rather the pattern is very heterogynous with large local differences. The process behind this heterogynous pattern is largely unknown. This gives a total growth season of over four months along the coast and in most of Northern Finland and less than three months in the mountainous regions of Norway. In order to predict future changes in the growth season we have to know which climatic factors are controlling this. Here in the North Calotte and in other artic and boreal regions we know that ultimately the onset of the growth season is steered by average temperature. Other climatic factors, such as precipitation, are important but impact at a finer time and geographic scale then our measurements. This temperature dominance means that we can relatively easily predict the basic trends in the onset of future growth seasons based on climate scenarios. In late summer and through the autumn this becomes much more complex because several other factors have an effect, such as light conditions and frost nights. This makes it much more difficult to predict the onset of autumn in the future. For the spring each degree increase in temperature results in an earlier onset of the growth season of 4-5 days for inland areas and 7-10 days earlier for coastal areas. Thus, should we have 2-3 °C increase in spring temperatures over the next 50 years, then the growth season will begin three weeks earlier along the coast and two weeks earlier in the interior. The latest climate models are predicting that the temperatures will increase more in interior areas than along the coast so that this difference will likely even itself out somewhat. Even though the impacts of climate change will be comparatively little compared with many parts of the earth, a change of 2-3 weeks earlier start of the growth season will lead to large consequences for nature and for the people living there. Changes in the onset of green-up are the first indication of long-term changes in our ecosystem. For example, this can lead to changes in the range of many species and changes in the production of vegetation. Changes in the growth season can also directly influence agriculture, forestry and not the least, reindeer husbandry. Today reindeer follow the “green wave” in the spring to utilize fresh grass and herbs. Changes here can force reindeer to change their pattern of what areas they use during the different times of year. 27 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 28 Focus on Climate in NORWEGIAN – RUSSIAN SCHOOL PROJECT By Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk Svanhovd A part of the project is to observe the first arrival of the Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea) in the spring. ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk In the school network ”Phenology of the North Calotte” (PNC) the time of reoccurrence of selected natural phenomena (Phenophases) for species of plants, birds and insects common at the North calotte are registered. The schools participating in the project have arranged a phenological path in the vicinity of the school, which they visit 28 regularly toregister the times for the selected phenophases. Through participation in this school network the pupils and teachers get an insight into scientific research methods, and contribute to the data collection used in climate research. The project is lead by Bioforsk Svanhovd, and today 5 Norwegian and 11 Russian schools actively participate in the project. Phenology Phenology is the study of the times for reoccurring natural phenomena, such as flowering of cloudberry (Rubus chamaemorus), unrolling of the first birch leaves (Betula sp.), arrival and departure of migratory birds etc. Such a happening or phenomena are called a phenophase, and the time for the phenophases occurrence depends on both biotic and abiotic factors in the environment. Registration of the same phenophases for selected species over a long period of time and in different areas makes it possible to demonstrate the local variations in length of the growth period and recognize variations in growth period over time (see paper by Stein Rune Karlsen in the same magazine). Penological path In the project, 18 different birds, insects and BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 29 BIOTIC FACTORS are the living organisms influence on the environment (ecosystem). plant species, together with physical parameters such as snow and ice cover are studied. Each participating school has an area in the school vicinity where most of the species and physical parameters can be studied. This area is visited regularly during spring and autumn to register the times for the occurrence of the defined phenophases described in the project manual. Connected to the projects web pages is a database where the schools register their results. The results from all the participating schools can be collected from the database when needed, and be used actively in the teaching. As an example, it is possible to study local and regional climatic variations, or use the results in interdisciplinary project work including maths, English, geography or art. ABIOTIC FACTORS are the non living FACTS ABOUT THE PROJECT: factors influence on the environment, such as topography, climate, geology, and inorganic nutrients. PCN started up in 2001, and is a cooperation including secondary schools and natural science research institutions in Norway and Russia, together with “Nettverk for miljølære” in Bergen (www.sustain.no) In 2007 Russia had participating schools in the following cities: Rajakoski, Nikel, Murmansk, Murmanshi, Kirovsk, Monchegorsk, Polyarny Zory, Kandalaksja and Umba, where Kandalaksja and Polarny Zory have more than one active school. In Norway, the active schools are in Pasvik, Vestre Jakobselv, Båtsfjord, Korsfjord and Alta. Teaching materials and internet pages for the project are developed (http://sustain.no/projects/northcalotte/). School gathering In addition to the phenological path, the annual school gathering is the most important activity in the project. At the school gathering, a total of 50-60 teachers and pupils from the active schools meet for a three day seminar with social and scientific activities. These gatherings have special focus on contact making activities and The teaching materials and internet pages are adapted to teaching in secondary school and are written in English. At the school gathering most of the teaching is in English. This is to stimulate increased language practice, and increase the communication between Norwegian and Russian participants. The project is lead by Bioforsk Svanhovd, and is mainly financed by the Norwegian Ministry of Environment. The County Governor of Finnmark and the Barents Secretariat also contribute financially. Participants at the school gathering in Murmanshi in May 2007. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk During the school gathering at Svanhovd in 2006, the pupils used DNA based methods in sex-determination of brown bear. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk One of the tasks at the school gathering in Murmanshi was to analyse the purity of the water in the river Toloma. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk biology, where phenology and biodiversity are central issues. The school gathering is arranged once a year alternating between sites in Norway and Russia. In 2006 the school gathering was held at Svanhovd in Norway, where brown bear (Ursus arctos), fresh water fish and river pearl mussels (Margaritifera margaritifera) were in focus. The main theme was brown bear, and the pupils were taught more about brown bear behavior, how to find traces from brown bear in nature and how to use DNA to identify different individuals of brown bear. In 2007 the school gathering was held in Murmanshi in Russia, and here special attention was given to analysis of fresh water, soil analysis and biodiversity of lichens. In addition excursions to water power plant, and a tropical bath in Murmansk was arranged. THE GOALS OF THE PROJECT “PHENOLOGY OF THE NORTH CALOTTE” IS TO: • Increase the competence in natural science among the pupils in secondary school by focusing on some of the key species in northern ecosystems, and to increase the awareness of the time of reoccurring phenomena in the nature. • Contribute to increased understanding and respect for culture and tradition across the borders through creating arenas for better contact between Norwegian and Russian schools and scientific institutions. • Teach the pupils scientific methods and stimulate increased interest for scientific research. To connect research and teaching, in order to decrease the gap between Norwegian and Russian schools and scientific institutions. • Contribute to increased investment and use of IKT in the participating schools. • Stimulate to better skills in English language among Norwegian and Russian pupils. 29 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:44 Side 30 THE CLIMATE CHANGES demand robust management By Jørgen Randers, professor at BI Norwegian School of Management and Chairman of WWF-Norway A new frightening record was Changes in the marine resources taken this autumn. The summer ice Historically, an essential part of the economic activity in the region has been exploitation of around the North Pole had its living marine resources. The Norwegian minimum extent since the measure- Commission of Low Emissions stated that to ments started in modern time. The predict how the ecosystems in the ocean will respond to increased sea temperature is very polar ice melts faster than hard. If we look at the populations of fish, predicted by the climate models. increased sea temperature in the Barents Sea This may be a prewarning about may represent better conditions for reproduction and growth to some species, like the major changes in the High North Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea – much faster than we have harengus). The population is now on its way to believed so far. These changes will reach the large population size from before the breakdown in the 1960´s. This can give the also be of economic character, and Norwegian fisheries and the other countries political action is required. harvesting from the population, high incomes. 30 An imagined increase of the Norwegian quotas by 25 percent may represent an increased firsthand value of up to half a billion Norwegian kroner – yearly. Simultaneously the herring is shifting its geographical belonging. This year, after many years of conflict, the countries with rights in the herring fishery have finally reached an agreement. It will be a big challenge to the management regime of this and other populations when changes in the sea temperature and other factors makes the populations move. To the coast of Finnmark and parts of Troms it is not herring, but cod that has been the basis for pattern of settlement. High access to cod most of the year has been crucial, and the consequences of a failure in the population of cod 28-11-07 15:44 will be dramatic to the community economy. As an example bankrupts in the fishing industry after year 2000 resulted in a strongly reduced housing prize in many of the fishing villages. The income from fisheries is changing from year to year, and is now on its way up again. Cod for 5,5 billion kroner was exported from Norway last year. To ensure the continuation of a big fishing enterprise based on cod and other populations in the future, the yearly quotas have to be in line with the recommendations from the researchers. For a number of years the quotas have been set higher than the recommendations from the researchers. If the recommendations for 2007 had been followed by the Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission, Norwegian fishers would have nearly 50 000 ton less cod and roughly lost more than a billion kroner in income. Most of the models show that an increased spawning population will give considerable higher profit in the long term. In the future weighing the options will be yet more important. The quotas have to be sustainable, and now that the climate changes are evident, strong climate buffers are necessary to secure the populations. New conditions to the reindeer husbandry The relations are just as complex on land. Over time the arctic ecosystems have been relatively stable and thus it is expected that their power of resistance against climatic changes are low. Thus the Arctic, including parts of the northernmost Norway, is especially vulnerable. Among the keywords, we find: more extreme weather, disappearance of the permafrost from certain areas, higher tree line, invations of new species and the risk of disturbance in symbiotic relations between different species – for instance between insects and plants. This presents new challenges to the industry dependent on resources at land. Reindeer husbandry, which is vital to the maintenance of the Sami culture, has to adapt to new conditions. Increased output may provide better conditions of grazing on the summer pastures while less stable winter climate may result in pasture areas more often covered with ice and thus unavailable to the herd, and do the already critical access to food even harder. Once again we see that it is hard to predict the consequence of the climate changes, and to secure a durable resource basis, totally new demands to the management have to be set. Nature and tourism – important area of employment in the north In the north of Norway tourism is the industry with greatest potential for growth of employment. It is not only the midnight sun attracting the tourists, but also a diversity of ecosystems, exciting species and interaction between traditional industry and nature. In the tourism industry they call their special attention to the possibilities of nature based activities. In 2004 tourism accounted for more than 12 000 man-labour Side 31 years in the north of Norway and a yearly growth of three percent to 2020 should be realistic. The potential may be much higher. Oil and gas – the hope for the north of Norway? Much of the debate in the north of Norway has been about the potential for employment within oil and gas. A frequently repeated estimate from the US Geological Surveys indicates that of all the undiscovered oil and gas resources in the world a quarter of it may be situated in the Arctic. Based on the latest data of the policy, analysts recommend long-term investments in the oil companies best positioned for exploitation in the Arctic. There is immediately not much gain for Norway, unless in the case of oil exploration at the continental shelf around Svalbard. Different scenarios predict from one thousand to several thousand employees in the petroleum activity in the three northernmost counties of Norway within 2020. It is worth mentioning that the highest estimates are based on the establishment of more installations to lead oil and gas ashore after the Snow White model. However the technological development seem to go in the direction of underwater installations, floating production vessels and different models of automated running. Even in the case of large discoveries outside the north of Norway, the lowest estimates seem to be the most realistic. The industries more or less based on renewable non-regenerating natural resources, that are affected by the climate changes, make a considerable higher potential for employment. In western Siberia the arctic oil and gas adventure started a long time ago, with the development of large fields. Both with and without development of the Sjtokman field, we will experience increased traffic by oil and gas tankers along the Norwegian coast, a trend that can be accelerated if the climate changes make the Siberian tundra impassable and make it difficult to maintain the infrastructure with pipelines through the area. The government has done an important work placing mandatory shipping routes 30 nautical miles from the coast from this summer of 2007 and on, and has strengthened inspection and preparedness along the Norwegian coast. However increased traffic by oil and gas tankers will only be a foretaste of what we can expect if a northern shipping route from Europe to Asia opens up between the Barents Sea and the Bering Strait. This will hardly give the Norwegian industry any opportunities, but place bigger responsibilities on Norway for inspection and readiness. The Norwegian Commis-sion of Low Emissions has indicated that within 2050 it will be possible for Norway to lower the emission of greenhouse gases by 50-80 percent, within the limits of what is technological and political realistic. It is imperative with a global climate protocol with binding efforts for all countries and activities. At the same time we have to realize that the climate changes, not at least in north, put new demands on the politicians and public officials. We have to shape the management to secure a robust resource basis and can no longer allow ourselves to balance on the edge of a knife as to what we can harvest from the natural resources. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk The ice of the High North is melting much faster than predicted by the climate models. The climate changes may result in big changes in the natural resource basis necessary to the industry in the north. The picture shows Isfjorden, Svalbard. ©WWF-Canon Wim Passel. BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 It is difficult to predict the effect of the climate changes on the ecosystem in the Barents Sea. Thus buffers are needed in the management, and it will be yet more important to take advice from the researchers, when the total quotas are defined. In addition the illegal fishing has to be brought under control. ©Kystvakta/Greenpeace. 31 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:45 Climate changes will most probably give significantly higher temperatures in northern areas during this century, with the consequence that northern Nordland and the coastal areas in Troms and West-Finnmark will experience markedly increased precipitation and also more incidents of extreme precipitation. This part of northern Norway will therefore be more affected by climate related damage connected to different types of slides and floods. Due to local variation in the natural conditions, the community economics and infrastructure, the municipalities are not equally vulnerable to climatic changes, and they have different ability to cope with climatic changes. Because of the large number of municipalities in northern Norway (89) it is a challenge to identify the most vulnerable local communities where more resources should be invested in additional analysis and preventative measures. To achieve this we used an indicator model developed in cooperation with CICERO and ProSus (Aall and Norland 2003). The regional vulnerability analysis (Groven et al. 2006) was conducted as an assignment for the Norwegian Polar Institute as an element of the project “Norwegian follow-up to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment” (NorACIA). The model is divided as previously stated among three forms of vulnerability. With “natural vulnerability” we describe vulnerability to natural processes that may be affected by climate changes. With “social economic vulnerability” we describe community characteristics and processes that affect the local vulnerability to climate changes. This includes local business composition, where climate vulnerable business includes both nature-based business directly dependent upon climate (agriculture, fishing, reindeer husbandry and tourism) as well as businesses vulnerable to political climate factors such as CO2 taxes (for example oil and gas industry). “Institutional vulnerability” describes the capacity for local institutions to implement measures necessary for the local community to adapt to changes in the climate. The topics and indicators were chosen to provide as much information as possible on the local vulnerability to climate change, but were also influenced by what data was available at the municipality level. The following table is a relatively simplified version of the results from this investigation. Because of space considerations some indicators are not included and we only show the municipalities with the greatest vulnerability for each indicator. We emphasize that this table represents results from a method that is Side 32 Northern municipalities VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE By Kyrre Groven, Vestlandsforsking Local communities are vulnerable to climatic changes in different ways: Some municipalities will in the future be especially impacted by natural events like mudslides and floods, some are vulnerable because of poorly considered placement of buildings and highways, while still others will handle climate changes badly because they are ill-equipped to initiate preventative measures or at handling crises situations. It is especially bad if both natural, social economic and institutional conditions points in the wrong direction. Vestlandsforsking analyzed how vulnerable northern Norwegian municipalities are to climate change with the help of an indicator model that tries to account for all these aspects of climate vulnerability. Four communes stood out as potentially more vulnerable than the rest. ©Erling Fjelldal, Bioforsk 32 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:45 Side 33 VULNERABILITY INDICATORS Natural Vulnerability Social Economic Vulnerability Institutional Vulnerability FACTOR EVALUATED MUNICIPALITIES POTENTIALLY MOST VULNERABLE Flood Length of river stretches in the flood zone 1. Alta 2. Nordreisa 3. Målselv 4. Grane Mudslide Registered slides 1. Målselv 2. Vefsn 3. Hemnes 4. Bardu Snow avalanches Registered slides 1. Karlsøy 2. Vestvågøy 3. Tromsø, Lyngen 4. Loppa Slides general Populated area within potential slide zones 1. Tromsø 2. Fauske 3. Loppa 4. Rana Business Employed in vulnerable businesses 1. Vevelstad 2. Moskenes 3. Flakstad 4. Dønna Transport Climate gas released per resident 1. Grane 2. Kvalsund 3. Nesseby 4. Hamarøy Energy use Energy use per resident 1. Tysfjord 2. Lenvik 3. Meløy 4. Evenes Planning No updated Commune Plan (Area planning) 1. Bø 2. Evenes 3. Skjervøy 4. Sørreisa Preparedness Municipality lacks a risk and vulnerability analysis Moskenes, Kvæfjord, Torsken, Gáivuotna/Kåfjord, Hasvik, Nesna, Deatnu/Tana ”Living local community” Population size prognoses 1. Bjarkøy 2. Loppa 3. Beiarn 4. Hasvik The Church in Nesseby. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk still under development. Further refinement of the model, better data foundation and new insights into the interrelatedness of climate vulnerability will lead to a new ranking of the municipalities later. The municipalities with the most hits in the list “potentially most vulnerable” were Moskenes and Grane in Nordland County; Målselv in Troms County; and Loppa in Finnmark County, each with negative outcomes in four or five indicators. Several of these municipalities were vulnerable to slides while others were vulnerable to flood hazards, business structure, inadequate crisis management plans and weak population estimates. Målselv and Grane showed largest variation with regard to the three vulnerability categories. A robust method? We are unable, based on this model, to provide a final evaluation of which municipalities in northern Norway are most vulnerable to climate changes. This method is too course for that. However, we do think this indicator model is adequate to use in identifying which municipalities have a need for additional in-depth studies. The model also is adequate to say something about regional divisions in vulnerability to clime changes and could be used to help further develop vulnerability categories. We would like to point out some fundamental limitations and methodological challenges with this model. For five of the original indicators the foundation of current knowledge was insufficient to make concrete evaluations of vulnerability. There is a general need for more research on how climate change will affect nature (especially ecosystem effects) and society. We need more dynamic descriptions that take into account not only the climate but also the community that is undergoing change. A further development of the model that includes parallel descriptions of climate- and societal changes will be done in cooperation with CICERO Centre for Climate Research, University in Oslo, Meteorological institute in Norway and Vestlandsforsking, as part of a research project funded by the Norwegian Research Council. The future use of this model can go in two directions: Further refinement and more secure evaluations of local climate vulnerability; and secondly, use of the model as a tool for scenario building and categorizing. Use of the indicator model on northern Norwegian municipalities was the first phase of a NorACIA Project. In the next phase we shall generate detailed vulnerability analyses in selected case-study municipalities in cooperation with CICERO, Sámi University College and Vestlandsforsking. Specifically we shall conduct a local vulnerability analysis for Målselv municipality. References (Both reports are available in Norwegian at: www.vestforsk.no) Groven, K., Sataøen, H., Aall, C. (2006): Regional klimasårbarheitsanalyse for NordNorge. Norsk oppfølging av Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (NorACIA). VF-rapport 4/06. Sogndal: Vestlandsforsking. Aall, C., Norland, I.T. (2003): Indikatorer for vurdering av lokal klimasårbarhet. VF-rapport 15/2003. Sogndal/Oslo: Vestlandsforsking/ProSus. 33 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:45 Side 34 Grazing sheep in Porsanger, Finnmark. ©Ingvild Wartiainen, Bioforsk NORWEGIAN AGRICULTURE and Climate Change By Arne Grønlund, Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Ås Agriculture is strongly dependent on climatic conditions, and changes in climate will affect both vegetative growth and the environmental impacts of the agriculture. Agriculture also directly releases greenhouse gasses and has great potential to reduce this release. Effect of climatic changes Climate changes are likely to result in increasingly more difficult conditions for agriculture in many parts of the world. Precipitation shortages and lack of water can be expected in many areas that until now, have farmed without the need for irrigation. In the future some areas may even have their rivers dried up, making it impossible for agriculture even with the help of irrigation. A large portion of agricultural production will be expected to move northward and into areas at higher elevations. In Norway changes in the climate will create both problems and possibilities for agriculture. Climate is the most important limiting factor for agricultural production in large portions of the country. Thus climate changes can probably have positive effects due to higher temperatures, longer growth seasons, increased crop yield and an increased potential for growing more warmth-demanding crops. Larger areas may become suitable for farming. Increases in atmospheric CO2 can also contribute to increased photosynthesis and increased yield. At the same time a reduction in land suitable for agriculture and decreased production in other areas of the world can lead to higher prices for agricultural products and an increased profit for northern agriculture. Climate change will also have several negative consequences. Higher temperatures will lead to more frequent outbreaks of plant diseases and pests. For example, we can expect that dry-rot will be a larger problem for potato farming than it is today. Unstable winters, 34 greater variation and heavier precipitation episodes will lead to an increase in freezingthawing events, increasingly difficult over-wintering conditions for some crops, increased nutrient runoff and pollution of surface water and ground water. There is reason to believe that additional areas will be able to produce grain crops, but we can also expect more erosion as a result of the unstable winters and heavy precipitation. A large portion of the agricultural lands along the coast of Norway represents a great potential for erosion risk because of the hilly and rough terrain. Grain crop production should therefore be limited to the least erosion-prone areas. Agriculture in northern areas is considered to be one of the few sectors where climate change, in sum, can have a positive effect. Historically this business has been strongly affected by variable weather and climate conditions and therefore has a relatively great capacity for adapting to new conditions. To some degree one can exploit knowledge gleaned from other areas where they have experience with similar challenges. What is special with the northern regions is the combination of day length and higher temperatures, which represents an entirely new situation where no one has any previous experience. Developing new plant types that are adapted to higher temperatures and longer days will therefore be a major challenge. EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NORTH FROM 2070-2100 Temperature • Mean temperatures will increase by 2.5-3.5°C, mostly in the interior and northern areas. • Minimum temperatures in winter will increase by 2.5-4°C, mostly in Finnmark County. • Maximum temperatures in summer will increase by 2-3°C. Precipitation • Årsmiddelnedbøren vil øke med 5 - 20 %, mest langs kysten i sørvest og helt i nord • Nedbøren om høsten vil øke med over 20 % i nord • Ekstreme nedbørmengder vil opptre oftere BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:45 Release of climate gasses from agriculture Norwegian agriculture contributes a substantial portion of human-caused release of climate gasses, ca. 10%, and also has a huge potential for reducing the net release of these gasses. The most important source of gas release is connected to farming of bogs and livestock production that together account for about 80% of the total gas released from the agriculture. Because of the large proportion of tilled bogs and the greater livestock densities in the northern regions of the country we can assume that this region contributes to a larger release of gasses per farmed unit compared to the rest of the country. The most realistic climate mitigation measures for agriculture in the north are: • Reduction of gas released from tilled bogs • Production of biomass to carbon storage and bioenergy • Reduction of methane (CH4) released from livestock and manure The world’s bog areas contain about as much carbon as is found in the earth’s atmosphere. Draining and cultivation of bogs leads to decomposition of organic material and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) into the atmosphere. One can expect that higher temperature and longer periods of thaw in the future will lead to quicker decomposition of cultivated bogs and greater release of climate gasses. Bogs comprise 2-3% Side 35 of the earth’s land area. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has estimated that restoring cultivated bogs as one of the mitigation measures within agriculture globally that has the greatest potential for reducing the release of climate gasses. This measure should be particularly important in Northern Norway, where cultivated bogs comprise 15% of the total farmed areas, compared to 7% nationally. The THE AMOUNT (PERCENTAGE) OF CLIMATE GASSES RELEASED FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES IN NORWEGIAN AGRICULTURE 35 % 30 % 25 % N2O 20 % CH4 15 % CO2 10 % 5% 0% ck e ur to es Liv an og en itr N fe er liz rti m to es Liv ck ed Cu lt t iva gs bo s se ea el r er th O Source: “SSB Kildefordelte utslipp til luft, 2005.” The amount of CO2 released from cultivated bogs was estimated by Bioforsk using 750,000 daa. of cultivated bogs and a CO2 release rate of 2.1 tons per daa. per year. simplest method to reduce release of climate gasses from bogs is to simply avoid draining and cultivating them in the first place. Some existing cultivated bogs, for example those with drainage problems because of compacted peat or too little slope can be of interest for restoring to a natural condition, such that the soil will again bind carbon. The Greatest challenge will be to choose measures that quickly lead to increased carbon binding but still limit the release of CH4. Forests bind large quantities of CO2 and thus can increase the carbon storage in standing biomass. The forest can be used to produce bioenergy in the form of: firewood; wood chips; pellets or briquettes that can be burned directly or as raw material for extraction of ethanol for fuels. The potential for carbon storage in forests and bio-energy production is expected to increase substantially as a consequence of increased growth rates and expanded forest boundaries further north and at higher elevations. It can also be possible to cultivate bioenergy crops on marginal areas that are not farmed because of difficult terrain or high erosion risks. Large amounts of methane are released from livestock manure and the digestive process of ruminants. Some of this release can be reduced through changed feed compositions and utilizing the methane released from manure as an energy source. 35 BW07_engelsk.qxd:Layout 1 28-11-07 15:45 Side 36 PUBLISHED BY THE SUPPORT OF: Bioforsk Soil and Environment, Svanhovd N – 9925 Svanvik Phone: +47 46 41 36 00 Fax: +47 78 99 56 00 E-mail: [email protected] www.bioforsk.no/svanhovd Woolly lousewort (Pedicularis dasyantha). ©Espen Aarnes, Bioforsk