Download Even several of the wetter runs yield increasing drought due to the

Martin Hoerling – NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and Jon Eischeid – University of Colorado, CIRES
N
obody relishes being “past
peak” anything. Whether it’s the
prime of our human existence
or the prime of Nature’s abundance, the
notion of having less rather than more
is often vehemently denied. But demand
growth in the face of production and
storage decline has severe consequences,
especially when existing uses already
consume the available supply.
of climate model simulations from the
arsenal of tools contributing to the 2007
The lifeblood of the Southwest is the
Colorado River, which is increasingly
impacted by climate forces not previously
experienced. The recent drought prompts
concern among water users and water
stewards alike, and requires the scientific
community to probe whether a sustained
threat is rising to our already perilous
moisture balance. The consensus of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC, 2001) affirms that
Earth’s atmosphere is accumulating
unprecedented quantities of carbon
dioxide that are now causing detectable
increases in surface air temperature.
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).
What is the news for the Southwest?
Is this ongoing drought an early warning
sign of something other than the historical
norm, and the gateway to a future climate
with more severe drought hazards?
What is known about the sensitivity of
moisture conditions in the Southwest
to a changing climate? To seek answers
to these questions, we have undertaken
a systematic analysis of a new suite
18 • January/February 2007 • Southwest Hydrology
Even several of the wetter
runs yield increasing
drought due to the
overwhelming effect of
heat-related moisture loss.
A New Drought Study
A common practice in drought monitoring
is to derive a meteorological quantity
known as the Palmer Drought Severity
Index (PDSI; Palmer 1965). The index
calculates the cumulative effects of
precipitation and temperature on surface
moisture balance. Water storage is
solely derived from a two-layer soil
system, with no explict accounting
for deep groundwater or water in
manmade surface storage. Drought
develops when evapotranspiration
exceeds the supply available from
precipitation and soil moisture relative
to a region’s “normal” water balance.
The index ranges from -4 (extreme
drought) to +4 (extreme moistness).
Reservoir storage is key for assessing
water supply during the course of a year
in the Southwest, and is not included
in a PDSI drought monitor. However,
when monitoring drought conditions
on annual time scales, streamflow is
strongly correlated with annual PDSI. The
relationship between the annual virgin
flow (the estimated flow of the stream if
it were in its natural state and unaffected
by the activities of man) at Lees Ferry,
Arizona, and the PDSI averaged over
the upper Colorado Basin drainage is
FLOW = Ao + (A1 x PDSI)
for FLOW greater than the estimated
basal flow of 3 million acre-feet (maf).
Using data from 1895-1989, the
linear regression coefficients are
Ao = 14.5 maf, A1 = 1.69 maf.
During the 95-year reference period,
annual PDSI explains 63 percent of the
annual river flow variations at Lees Ferry.
Post-1989 data offer an independent
period to confirm applicability of the
above relation for predicting Lees Ferry
flow. This period is one of warming
temperatures, allowing us to test the
prediction equation’s fidelity in an
environment of climate change. For
1990-2005, PDSI predicts 85 percent
of the recent yearly fluctuations of flow
at Lees Ferry, including the low flow
regime during the recent drought.
To determine the probable hydrologic
consequences of future climate change,
the above formula was used to downscale
future PDSI to Lees Ferry streamflow. The
monthly PDSI was calculated for each of
42 climate simulations spanning 1895 to
2060, using multiple runs of 18 different
coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models.
The models were forced with the known
changes in atmospheric constituents
and solar variations from 1895-2000
and a business-as-usual assumption for
future carbon emission after 2000.
A Drastic Change in the
Character of Drought
Sustained drought of severe intensity
(PDSI < -3) occurred during 1953-1956,
an event rivaled during 2000-2003. The
average annual Lees Ferry flow was
only 10 maf during both events, but the
recent drought bears different properties
than its predecessor. In particular,
abnormally high temperatures have
been more prevalent during the 20002003 drought, with the West nearly 1°C
warmer than during the 1950s drought.
Climate simulations of PDSI for two
near-term 25-year periods (2006-2030 and
2035-2060) show an increase in drought
severity (relative to their 20th century
“normals”) that occurs in lockstep with
surface warming (see figures, above
right). Little net change in precipitation
occurs in the average of all models,
though variability among the simulations
is considerable. Nonetheless, even
several of the wetter runs yield increasing
drought due to the overwhelming
effect of heat-related moisture loss.
The Southwest appears to be entering
a new drought era. In the 20th century,
drought was principally precipitation
driven, and enhanced by temperature.
Indications from the simulations are that
a near perpetual state of drought will
materialize in the coming decades as a
consequence of increasing temperature.
Historical
Future
1953 — 1956
2006 — 2030
2000 — 2003
2035 — 2060
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
PDSI
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Values less than -3 denote severe drought conditions. Left
panels illustrate the 4-year average drought conditions experienced during the 1950s drought
and the recent drought. Right panels are future projections of the PDSI based on 42 simulations
conducted to support the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. By about 2050, average moisture
balance conditions will mimic conditions experienced only rarely at the height of the most severe
historical droughts.
To place these probable changes into
context, projections for the next quarter
century paint a sober landscape in which
average PDSI equates to the 2000-2003
drought conditions. This occurs as the
consequence of surface water loss due
to increased evapotranspiration owing
to an average 1.4°C warming (relative
see Past Peak, page 35
January/February 2007 • Southwest Hydrology • 19
to 1895-2005) in the Colorado Basin.
The subsequent quarter century (20352060) is projected to undergo a similar
incremental warming: an average 2.8°C
over the Upper Colorado. This drives the
Palmer Index down to drought severity
rarely witnessed during the 20th century.
Past Peak Water
What are the implications of intensified
aridity for Colorado River flow?
Downscaling the simulated PDSI to
Lees Ferry flow yields an average rate
of 10 maf for the next 25 years. As
drought conditions further intensify due
to heat, Colorado River flows would
decline further (see charts below),
averaging 7 maf during 2035-2060,
values equivalent to the observed lowest
flow at our recent drought’s nadir.
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Lees Ferry Flow
Nonetheless, a robust physical relation
underpins the projected reduction in
Colorado River flow. Evapotranspiration
exceeds precipitation throughout the basin,
implying less runoff as dictated by water
balance requirements. Also, the Lees
Ferry flow estimated from the climate
simulations for 1990-2005 is 13 maf, an
already substantial decline from higher
simulated flows in the early 20th century.
This change is remarkably consistent
with observations and suggests an
emerging warming effect on streamflow.
Relative to the 1990-2005 mean flow
of 13 maf, the 42-run average predicts
a 25 percent decline in streamflow
during 2006-2030, and a 45 percent
decline during 2035-2060. This scenario
is consistent with several independent
estimates using different approaches.
Revelle and Waggoner (1983) used
empirical methods to predict a 29 percent
reduction in Lees Ferry flow under a
scenario of 2°C warming. Christensen
and others (2004) used a sophisticated
hydrology model to predict an 18 percent
reduction in Colorado River streamflow
by 2050 under a change scenario
derived from a climate model that is
now recognized to be on the low range
of climate change sensitivity. Milly and
others (2005) diagnosed annual runoff in
12
Upper Colorado PDSI
8
20th century average
Annual PDSI
Streamflow, MAF
Are such low flows realistic on a yearby-year sustained level? First, virtually
all simulations point to sufficient
drought to reduce flow below current
consumptive uses on the river within
20 years, although the range of model
outcomes indicates that we don’t know
precisely how low the flow will be.
Second, whereas the 21st century climate
change signal is one of low Colorado
River flow, the superimposed natural
variability in precipitation is still capable
of producing “normal” flow (by 20th
century standards) for a year or two within
an otherwise drought epoch. Finally, it is
unclear whether the historical Lees Ferry
flow-PDSI relation used in this study
is strictly applicable to the substantial
change in climate that is projected.
4
0
-4
-8
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
-12
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
12 different AR4 models and discovered
a near 20 percent decline in runoff for
the Colorado River headwaters by 2050.
Our study reveals that a sustained change
in moisture conditions is unfolding within
the broad range of natural variations. The
Southwest is likely past the peak water
experienced in the 20th century preceding
the signing of the 1922 Colorado
Compact: a decline in Lees Ferry flow will
reduce water availability below current
consumptive demands within a mere 20
years. These projections further expose
the risky reliance by Colorado River water
users upon the Compact as a guarantee
that streamflows will always materialize
to match legislated requirements.
Contact Martin Hoerling at [email protected].
References
Christensen, N.S., A.W. Wood, N. Voisin, D.P.
Lettenmeier, and R.N. Palmer, 2004. The effects
of climate change on the hydrology and water
resources of the Colorado River Basin, Climatic
Change 62(1): 337-363.
IPCC, 2001. Climate Change, 2001: The Scientific
Basis, ed. by J.T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D.J.
Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, and D.
Xiaosu, Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.
Milly, P.C.D., K.A. Dunne, and A.V. Vecchia, 2005.
Global patterns of trends in streamflow and
water availability in a changing climate,
Nature, 438: 347-350.
Palmer, W.C., 1965. Meteorological Drought, U.S.
Dept. of Commerce, Weather Bureau Research
Paper No. 45, Washington, D.C.
Revelle, R., and P. Waggoner, 1983. Effects of a
carbon dioxide-induced climatic change on
water supplies in the western United States,
in Changing Climate, by the Carbon Dioxide
Assessment Committee, pp. 419-432, National
Academy Report 8211, Washington, D.C.
Probability Density Function
Past Peak, continued from page 19
0.2
Observed: 1896 — 2005
AR4 20th C
AR4 21st: 2006 — 2030
AR4 21st: 2035 — 2060
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
Upper Colorado PDSI
10
The 1895-2050 Lees Ferry annual streamflow (left) was derived from the AR4 simulations of PDSI (middle) using the downscaling formula that relates
observed Lees Ferry flow to observed PDSI during the 20th century. The dark red curve denotes the 42-run average, and the cloud describes the 10 to
90 percent range of individual simulations. The right panel summarizes the probability distribution function of PDSI averaged over the Upper Colorado
Drainage Basin for individual years of observations 1895-2005 (black), for the 42 models for 1895-2005 (green), and for the 42-model projections of the
average PDSI during 2006-2030 (orange) and 2035-2060 (red). Note that the models produce a realistic range of PDSI drought events during the 20th
century, and for the future they produce surface moisture conditions that denote progressive aridification and severe drought conditions.
January/February 2007 • Southwest Hydrology • 35
Human-Induced Changes
in the Hydrology of the Western
United States
Tim P. Barnett,1* David W. Pierce,1 Hugo G. Hidalgo,1 Celine Bonfils,2
Benjamin D. Santer,2 Tapash Das,1 Govindasamy Bala,2 Andrew W. Wood,3
Toru Nozawa,4 Arthur A. Mirin,2 Daniel R. Cayan,1,5 Michael D. Dettinger1,5
Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed
significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate
change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global
climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region
with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends
of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced.
These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in
conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.
ater is perhaps the most precious natural commodity in the western United
States. Numerous studies indicate the
hydrology of this region is changing in ways that
will have a negative impact on the region (1–3).
Between 1950 and 1999 there was a shift in the
character of mountain precipitation, with more
winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow
(2, 4, 5), earlier snow melt (4, 6), and associated
changes in river flow (7–10). In the latter case,
the river flow experiences relative increases in
the spring and relative decreases in the summer
months. These effects go along with a warming
over most of the region that has exacerbated
these drier summer conditions (5, 8, 11).
The west naturally undergoes multidecadal
fluctuations between wet and dry periods (12).
If drying from natural climate variability is the
cause of the current changes, a subsequent wet
period will likely restore the hydrological cycle
to its former state. But global and regional climate models forced by anthropogenic pollutants
suggest that human influences could have caused
the shifts in hydrology (2, 13–15). If so, these
changes are highly likely to accelerate, making
modifications to the water infrastructure of the
western United States a virtual necessity.
Here, we demonstrate statistically that the
majority of the observed low-frequency changes
in the hydrological cycle (river flow, temperature, and snow pack) over the western United
States from 1950 to 1999 are due to humancaused climate changes from greenhouse gases
and aerosols. This result is obtained by evaluat-
W
ing a combination of global climate and regional
hydrologic models, together with sophisticated
data analysis. We use a multivariable detection
and attribution (D&A) methodology (16–18) to
show that the simultaneous hydroclimatic changes
observed already differ significantly in length
and strength from trends expected as a result of
natural variability (detection) and differ in the
specific ways expected of human-induced effects (attribution). Focusing on the hydrological
cycle allows us to assess the origins of the most
relevant climate change impacts in this waterlimited region.
We investigated simultaneous changes from
1950 to 1999 (19) in snow pack (snow water
equivalent or SWE), the timing of runoff of the
major western rivers, and average January through
March daily minimum temperature (JFM Tmin)
in the mountainous regions of the western United
States (20). These three variates arguably are
among the most important metrics of the western hydrological cycle. By using the multivariable approach, we obtain a greater signal-to-noise
(S/N) ratio than from univariate D&A alone (see
below).
The SWE data are normalized by Octoberto-March precipitation (P) to reduce variability
from heavy- or light-precipitation years. Observed
SWE/P and temperature were averaged over each
of nine western mountainous regions (Fig. 1) to
reduce small-spatial-scale weather noise. The
river flow variate is the center of timing (CT), the
day of the year on which one-half of the total
water flow for the year has occurred, computed
from naturalized flow in the Columbia, Colorado,
and Sacramento/San Joaquin rivers. CT tends to
decrease with warming because of earlier spring
melting.
Selected observations from these regions and
variables are displayed in Fig. 2, showing the
trends noted above, along with substantial regional differences and “weather noise.” SWE/P
trends in the nine regions vary from –2.4 to –7.9%
per decade, except in the southern Sierra Nevada
where the trend is slightly positive. The JFM
Tmin trends are all positive and range from 0.28°
to 0.43°C per decade, whereas the river CT
1
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California,
San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. 2Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. 3Land Surface
Hydrology Research Group, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
4
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2, Onogawa,
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan. 5U.S. Geological Survey, La
Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
[email protected]
1080
Fig. 1. Map showing averaging regions over which SWE/P and JFM Tmin were determined. The
hatching shows the approximate outline of the three main drainage basins used in this study.
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REPORTS
arrives from 0.3 to 1.7 days per decade earlier.
The challenge in D&A analysis is to determine
whether a specific, predetermined signal representing the response to external forcing is present
in these observations.
We compared the observations with results
from a regional hydrologic model forced by global climate model runs. One of the global models, the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) (21), has
been used previously in hydrological studies in
the western United States (22) and realistically
portrays important features of observed climate
and the amplitude of natural internal variability.
The second climate model, the anthropogenically forced medium-resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) (23–25),
was selected from the current Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 set of
global runs (26) because it had available many
20th-century ensemble members with daily data,
and because it offered a high degree of realism
in representing the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO). We used the anthropogenically forced
versions of these models to obtain an estimate
for the expected signal not confounded by other
forcing mechanisms. The models provided multiple realizations (10 for MIROC, 4 for PCM) of
the historical response of the climate system to
anthropogenic forcing. The daily output from
these coarse-horizontal-resolution model results
was downscaled to a 1/8° × 1/8° latitude-longitude
grid by two different statistical methods [Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) (27)
and Constructed Analogues (CA) (28)]. The downscaled temperature and precipitation data were
supplied as input to the Variable Infiltration
Capacity (VIC) hydrological model (15, 27, 29)
to obtain river flow and SWE/P.
Fig. 2. Observed time series of selected variables (expressed as unit
normal deviates) used in the multivariate detection and attribution
analysis. Taken in isolation, seven
of nine SWE/P, seven of nine JFM
Tmin, and one of the three river flow
variables have statistically significant trends.
Fig. 3. Fingerprints from the multivariate analysis of PCM and MIROC.
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VOL 319
We used the downscaled model results to
estimate an anthropogenic “fingerprint” for the
PCM and MIROC models (30). The fingerprint
describes the joint variability of SWE/P, JFM
Tmin, and river flow (Fig. 3) (20). The model
fingerprints are very similar despite the different
external forcings used (20, 26). The results show
that warmer temperatures accompany decreases
in SWE/P and decreases in CT of major western
river systems. The sign of each variable is a monopole, indicating a coherent regional-scale signal
over the western United States.
The temporal component of the fingerprint
(not shown) is well represented by a simple trend.
This implies that the fingerprint primarily captures the spatial expression of long-term changes,
and not shorter-period climate modes (such as El
Niño–Southern Oscillation or the PDO).
The signal strength is calculated as the leastsquares linear trend of the projection of a data
set (model or observations) onto the fingerprint
(20). The upper panel of Fig. 4 shows the ensemble mean signals for our various model runs
and the observations (20). The observations show
a positive signal indistinguishable from the PCM
and MIROC anthropogenically forced runs. These
signals exclude zero at the 95% confidence interval, thus achieving “detection.”
We used 1600 years of downscaled control
run data from two different global models (20)
to estimate the probability that the observed signal could be due to natural, internal variability
(Fig. 4, lower panel). The observed signal falls
outside the range expected from natural variability with high confidence (P < 0.01). In separate
analyses for PCM and MIROC, the likelihood
that the model signal arises from natural internal
variability is between 0.01 and 0.001 (20). The
different downscaling methods have little impact
on these results. We conclude that natural internal climate variability alone cannot explain either
the observed or simulated changes in SWE/P,
JFM Tmin, and CT in response to anthropogenic
forcing.
PCM simulations forced solely by the combined impacts of observed solar variability and
volcanic activity (Sol/Vol, Fig. 4) show a signal
with sign opposite to that observed. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing also fail to
explain the observed hydrological changes.
Might anthropogenically induced precipitation
changes account for our results? This is unlikely
because our variables were chosen to minimize
sensitivity to precipitation fluctuations. However,
previous work has identified an anthropogenic
effect on global-scale changes in precipitation
(31). We conducted a univariate D&A analysis
on precipitation, comparing the fingerprint obtained from the anthropogenic runs to the control runs and observations. The results (Fig. 4,
lower panel) show that the observed changes in
precipitation over the nine western U.S. mountain regions are indistinguishable from natural
variability. We found the same for model precipitation (not shown). We conclude that although
22 FEBRUARY 2008
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REPORTS
1081
PCM
(CA)
MIROC Sol/Vol
Obs
0.00
0.05
0.10
PCM
(BCSD)
-0.05
Signal strength
0.15
precipitation may be affected by anthropogenic
forcing on larger scales or in other regions, or in
this region in the future, it cannot explain the
strong changes in western U.S. hydrology from
1950 to 1999.
Finally, the observations are consistent with
the anthropogenic model runs. The observed
signal is stronger than found in either model, but
PCM PCM
(BCSD) (CA) MIROC Sol/Vol (Precip)
Obs
Percentile
99.99
99.9
99
95
90
75
50
25
10
5
1
99
95
Fig. 4. Ensemble average signal strength (upper
panel; standard deviations of the fingerprint’s
principal component per decade) and percentile
rank of ensemble mean signal strength for the
indicated model runs with respect to the combined
(CCSM3-FV and PCM) control run (lower panel). Percentile values were calculated by Monte Carlo
resampling of the control run taking into account
N, the varying number of ensemble members. PCM
(BCSD) and PCM (CA): PCM runs with anthropogenic
forcing, with two different downscaling methods as
described in the text (N = 4). MIROC: MIROC runs
with anthropogenic forcing (N = 10). Sol/Vol: PCM
runs with only solar and volcanic forcing included
(N = 2). The cross shows the signal strength obtained from the observations (N = 1). For comparison purposes, also shown is the observed signal
strength from a separate analysis of precipitation
changes over the nine mountain regions (diamond). Values outside the hatched and crosshatched regions are significant at the 0.01 and
0.05 levels, respectively.
CCSM3-FV noise (normalization); PCM noise (sig. test)
PCM noise (normalization); CCSM3-FV noise (sig. test)
Signal-to-noise ratio
Fig. 5. Time-dependent S/N estimates for two different estimates
of natural variability. The x axis
is the last year of L-length linear
trend in the signal estimate.
the differences are not statistically significant.
The ensemble mean signal strength from PCM
is 60% of the observed signal strength; that is,
PCM estimates that three-fifths of the projected
trend can be ascribed to human effects. The two
downscaling methods give somewhat different
signal strengths (Fig. 4), but the attribution holds
no matter which is chosen. We conclude that
application of a rigorous, multivariable D&A
methodology shows a detectable and attributable
signature of human effects on western hydrology.
We examined the time evolution of signal
and noise by projecting the observations (signal)
and control run data (noise) onto the multivariable fingerprint, then fitting linear trends of increasing length L to the resulting projected time
series. This enabled us to calculate a S/N ratio
as a function of L (from 10 to 50 years); Fig. 5
shows that the S/N ratio rises above the 5% significance threshold no later than 1986. This
result is robust to uncertainties in the model
fingerprint, model-based noise estimates, and
statistical downscaling method (20). We also
repeated the D&A analysis without areal weighting and found that it made no difference in our
conclusions.
The variables examined here covary in a physically and internally consistent way: An increase
in minimum temperature is associated with less
SWE/P and earlier runoff. Quantitatively, we also
compared the S/N obtained from separate analyses of each variable with that obtained for the
full multivariable problem (20). For fixed choices
of fingerprint, noise, and downscaling (32), the
S/N values from the separate SWE/P, JFM Tmin,
and CT analyses were 2.90, 2.95, and 1.85, respectively, all significant at about the 0.05 level
or above. The multivariable analysis had a S/N
of 3.62, and so it has quantitative value as well as
providing a test of whether SWE/P, JFM Tmin,
and CT covary in a physically consistent way.
Our results are robust with respect to uncertainties in model estimates of anthropogenic
climate fingerprints and natural variability, downscaling method, and the choice of univariate or
multivariate D&A analysis. Estimates of natural
variability used for significance testing agree
well with those derived from paleo proxies (20).
The analyses show with high confidence that
1%
5%
1983 detection
1986 detection
1960
1970
1980
1990
Last year of L-length linear trend in signal
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the majority of the detrimental changes already
seen in western U.S. hydrology are caused by
human-induced effects. PCM, which has the
most realistic signal strength, shows that human
effects account for 60% of the observed 1950–
1999 trend in signal strength. MIROC accounts
for 35% of the trend. On the basis of Fig. 4 (upper panel) and the discussion of MIROC in (20),
the PCM number seems more reliable.
Our results are not good news for those living in the western United States. The scenario for
how western hydrology will continue to change
has already been published using one of the models used here [PCM (2)] as well as in other recent studies of western U.S. hydrology [e.g., (15)].
It foretells water shortages, lack of storage capability to meet seasonally changing river flow,
transfers of water from agriculture to urban uses,
and other critical impacts. Because PCM performs so well in replicating the complex signals
of the last half of the 20th century, we have
every reason to believe its projections and to act
on them in the immediate future.
References and Notes
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2. ACPI, The Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative,
Clim. Change 62, 444 (2004).
3. B. Udall, G. Bates, Intermountain West Climate Summary,
Western Water Assessment, January 2007 (available from
University of Colorado).
4. A. F. Hamlet, P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, D. P. Lettenmaier,
J. Clim. 18, 4545 (2005).
5. N. Knowles, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, J. Clim. 19,
4545 (2006).
6. P. W. Mote, A. F. Hamlet, M. P. Clark, D. P. Lettenmaier,
Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86, 39 (2005).
7. M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, J. Clim. 8, 606 (1995).
8. D. R. Cayan, S. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. Caprio,
D. Peterson, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82, 399 (2001).
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1136 (2005).
10. S. K. Regonda, B. Rajagopalan, M. Clark, J. Pitlick,
J. Clim. 18, 372 (2005).
11. P. Y. Groisman et al., J. Hydrometeorol. 5, 64 (2003).
12. Colorado River Basin Water Management, Evaluating and
Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability (National Academy
of Sciences, Washington, DC, 2007).
13. P. C. D. Milly, K. A. Dunne, A. V. Vecchia, Nature 438,
347 (2005).
14. R. Seager et al., Science 316, 1181 (2007); published
online 4 April 2007 (10.1126/science.1139601).
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Discuss. 3, 1 (2006).
16. T. P. Barnett, M. Schlesinger, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 14772
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since 2000. We do not claim that the large changes since
2000 are necessarily the result of human-induced warming.
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(abstr.) (2006).
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Protoplanetary Disk, A. N. Krot, E. R. D. Scott,
B. Reipurth, Eds. (Astrophysical Society of the Pacific,
San Francisco, CA, 2005), pp. 107–130.
Model Projections of an Imminent
Transition to a More Arid Climate in
Southwestern North America
Richard Seager,1* Mingfang Ting,1 Isaac Held,2,3 Yochanan Kushnir,1 Jian Lu,4
Gabriel Vecchi,2 Huei-Ping Huang,1 Nili Harnik,5 Ants Leetmaa,2 Ngar-Cheung Lau,2,3
Cuihua Li,1 Jennifer Velez,1 Naomi Naik1
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern
North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional
development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region
will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under
way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust
Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a
time frame of years to decades.
he Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) reported that the average of all the
participating models showed a general decrease in
rainfall in the subtropics during the 21st century,
although there was also considerable disagreement among the models (1). Subtropical
drying accompanying rising CO2 was also found
in the models participating in the second Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project (2). We examined
future subtropical drying by analyzing the time
history of precipitation in 19 climate models
participating in the Fourth Assessment Report
T
1
Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia
University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. 2National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. 3Program in
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
4
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
80307, USA. 5Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
*To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail:
[email protected]
(AR4) of the IPCC (3). The future climate
projections followed the A1B emissions scenario
(4), in which CO2 emissions increase until about
2050 and decrease modestly thereafter, leading to
a CO2 concentration of 720 parts per million in
2100. We also analyzed the simulations by these
models for the 1860–2000 period, in which the
models were forced by the known history of trace
gases and estimated changes in solar irradiance,
volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols, and land use
(with some variation among the models). These
simulations provided initial conditions for the
21st-century climate projections. For each model,
climatologies were computed for the 1950–2000
period by averaging over all the simulations
available for each model. All climate changes
shown here are departures from this climatology.
We define an area (shown as a box in Fig. 4A)
called “the Southwest” (including all land
between 125°W and 95°W and 25°N and 40°N)
that incorporates the southwestern United States
and parts of northern Mexico. Figure 1 shows the
modeled history and future of the annual mean
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VOL 316
26. J. M. Rathborne et al., Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 331, 85
(2002).
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the Pacific, San Francisco, CA, 2005), pp. 527–538.
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XXXVII, 1478 (abstr.) (2006).
32. Financial support for this project was provided by the
Danish National Science Foundation, NASA’s
Cosmochemistry Program, and the Danish Natural
Science Research Council.
Supporting Online Material
www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/316/5828/1178/DC1
Materials and Methods
SOM Text
Tables S1 and S2
References
8 February 2007; accepted 27 March 2007
10.1126/science.1141040
precipitation minus the evaporation (P − E), averaged over this region for the period common to all
of the models (1900–2098). The median, 25th,
and 75th percentiles of the model P − E distribution and the median of P and E are shown.
For cases in which there were multiple simulations with a single model, data from these simulations were averaged together before computing
the distribution. P − E equals the moisture convergence by the atmospheric flow and (over land)
the amount of water that goes into runoff.
In the multimodel ensemble mean, there is a
transition to a sustained drier climate that begins in
the late 20th and early 21st centuries. In the
ensemble mean, both P and E decrease, but the
former decreases by a larger amount. P − E is
primarily reduced in winter, when P decreases and
E is unchanged or modestly increased, whereas in
summer, both P and E decrease. The annual mean
reduction in P for this region, calculated from rain
gauge data within the Global Historical Climatology Network, was 0.09 mm/day between 1932 and
1939 (the Dust Bowl drought) and 0.13 mm/day
between 1948 and 1957 (the 1950s Southwest
drought). The ensemble median reduction in P that
drives the reduction in P − E reaches 0.1 mm/day in
midcentury, and one quarter of the models reach
this amount in the early part of the current century.
The annual mean P − E difference between
20-year periods in the 21st century and the
1950–2000 climatology for the 19 models are
shown in Fig. 2. Almost all models have a drying
trend in the American Southwest, and they consistently become drier throughout the century.
Only 1 of the 19 models has a trend toward a
wetter climate. Of the total of 49 individual
projections conducted with the 19 models, even
as early as the 2021–2040 period, only 3 projections show a shift to a wetter climate. Examples
of modeled history and future precipitation for
single simulations of four individual models are
shown in Fig. 3 and provide an idea of potential
trajectories toward the more arid climate.
25 MAY 2007
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Y. Morishita, Astrophys. J. 639, L87 (2006).
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625, 271 (2005).
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119, 159 (1993).
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Astrophys. J. 632, L41 (2005).
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System II, D. S. Lauretta, H. Y. McSween, Eds. (Univ. of
Arizona Press, Tucson, AZ, 2006), pp. 775–801.
10. N. Kita et al., in Chondrites and the Protoplanetary Disk,
A. N. Krot, E. R. D. Scott, B. Reipurth, Eds. (Astrophysical
Society of the Pacific, San Francisco, CA, 2005),
pp. 558–587.
11. Materials and methods are available as supporting
material on Science Online.
12. Y. Amelin, A. N. Krot, I. D. Hutcheon, A. A. Ulyanov,
Science 297, 1678 (2002).
1181
The contours in Fig. 4, A to C, show a
map of the change in P − E for the decades
between 2021 and 2040 minus those in the
1950–2000 period for one of the IPCC models:
the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
(GFDL) climate model CM2.1 (5). In general,
large regions of the relatively dry subtropics dry
further, whereas wetter, higher-latitude regions
become wetter still. In addition to the American
Southwest, the southern Europe–Mediterranean–
Middle East region also experiences a severe
drying. This pattern of subtropical drying and
moistening at higher latitudes is a robust feature
of current projections with different models of
future climate (6).
The change (d) in P − E (in meters per
second) is balanced by a change in atmospheric
moisture convergence, namely
Z
rw gdðP − EÞ ¼ −d
Z
ps
∇ ⋅ ðuqÞdp þ
0
ps
∇ ⋅ ðuq′Þdp
ð1Þ
0
Overbars indicate monthly means, primes
represent departures from the monthly mean, rw
is the density of water, g indicates the acceleration
due to gravity, and ∇ indicates the horizontal
divergence operator. The change in moisture con-
Fig. 1. Modeled changes in annual mean precipitation minus evaporation over the American Southwest
(125°W to 95°W and 25°N to 40°N, land areas only), averaged over ensemble members for each of the 19
models. The historical period used known and estimated climate forcings, and the projections used the
SResA1B emissions scenario. The median (red line) and 25th and 75th percentiles (pink shading) of the P −
E distribution among the 19 models are shown, as are the ensemble medians of P (blue line) and E (green
line) for the period common to all models (1900–2098). Anomalies (Anom) for each model are relative to
that model's climatology from 1950–2000. Results have been 6-year low-pass Butterworth-filtered to
emphasize low-frequency variability that is of most consequence for water resources. The model ensemble
mean P − E in this region is around 0.3 mm/day.
Fig. 2. The change in annual mean P − E over the American Southwest (125°W to
95°Wand 25°N to 40°N, land areas only) for 19 models (listed at left), relative to
model climatologies from 1950–2000. Results are averaged over 20-year segments
1182
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VOL 316
vergence can be divided into contributions from the
mean flow and from eddies. In the former, the
atmospheric flow ðuÞ and the moisture ðqÞ are
averaged over a month before computing the
moisture transport, whereas the latter is primarily
associated with the highly variable wind (u′) and
moisture (q′) fields within storm systems. The
moisture convergence is integrated over the pressure ( p) from the top of the atmosphere ( p = 0) to
the surface ( ps). The mean wind and humidity
fields in Eq. 1 can be taken to be their climatological fields. (The rectification of interannual
variability in the monthly mean flow and moisture fields is found to be negligible.) Changes in
the mean flow contribution can, in turn, be approximated by one part associated with the
climatological circulation from 1950 to 2000
ðuP Þ, operating on the increase in climatological
atmospheric humidity ðdq, a consequence of
atmospheric warming), and by another part due
to the change in circulation climatology ðduÞ,
operating on the atmospheric humidity climatology from 1950 to 2000 ðqP Þ. The nonlinear term
involving changes in both the mean flow and the
moisture field is found to be relatively small.
Hence, Eq. 1 can be approximated by:
Z ps
rw gdðP − EÞ e −
∇ ⋅ ðqP d u þ uP dqÞdp
0
Z ps
∇ ⋅ ðu′q′Þdp
ð2Þ
−d
0
We therefore think in terms of a threefold
decomposition of P − E, as displayed in Fig. 4
(colors) for the GFDL CM2.1 model: (i) a
contribution from the change in mean circulation,
(ii) a contribution from the change in mean
humidity, and (iii) a contribution from eddies.
of the current century. The number of ensemble members for each projection is
listed by the model name at left. Black dots represent ensemble members (where
available), and red dots represent the ensemble mean for each model.
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REPORTS
The mean flow convergence term involving
only changes in humidity (Fig. 4B) causes
increasing P − E in regions of low-level mean
mass convergence and decreasing P − E in regions
of low-level mean mass divergence, generally
intensifying the existing pattern of P − E (6). This
term helps to explain much of the reduction in P −
E over the subtropical oceans, where there is strong
evaporation, atmospheric moisture divergence, and
low precipitation (6). Over land areas in general,
there is no infinite surface-water source, and P − E
has to be positive and sustained by atmospheric
moisture convergence. Over the American Southwest, in the current climate, it is the time-varying
flow that sustains most of the positive P − E,
whereas the mean flow diverges moisture away.
Here, the “humidity contribution” leads to reduced
P − E, as the moisture divergence by the mean flow
increases with rising humidity. Over the Mediterranean region, there is mean moisture divergence,
and rising humidity again leads to increased mean
moisture divergence and reduced P − E.
Over the ocean, the contribution of humidity
changes to changes in P − E can be closely approximated by assuming that the relative humidity
remains fixed at its 1950–2000 values (6). Over
almost all land areas and especially over those
that have reduced P − E, the relative humidity
decreases in the early 21st century. This is be-
cause, unlike over the ocean, evaporation cannot
keep pace with the rising saturation humidity of
the warming atmosphere. Over land, the humidity contribution to the change in P − E is distinct
from that associated with fixed relative humidity.
Decreases in P − E can also be sustained by
changes in atmospheric circulation that alter the
mean moisture convergence, even in the absence
of changes in humidity (Fig. 4A). This “mean
circulation contribution” leads to reduced P − E
at the northern edge of the subtropics (e.g., the
Mediterranean region, the Pacific and the Atlantic
around 30°N, and parts of southwestern North
America). The change in moisture convergence
by the transient eddies (Fig. 4C) dries southern
Europe and the subtropical Atlantic and moistens
the higher-latitude Atlantic, but it does not have a
coherent and large impact over North America.
A substantial portion of the mean circulation
contribution, especially in winter, can be accounted for by the change in zonal mean flow
alone (not shown in the figures), indicating that
changes in the Hadley Cell and the extratropical
mean meridional circulation are important. Increases in humidity and mean moisture divergence, changes in atmospheric circulation, and
the intensification of eddy moisture divergence
cause drying in the subtropics, including the
area over western North America and the Med-
Fig. 3. The change in
annual mean P − E over
the American Southwest
(125°W to 95°W and
25°N to 40°N, land
areas only) for four
coupled models, relative
to model ensemblemean
climatologies from
1950–2000. The results
are from individual simulations of the 1860–
2000 period, forced by
known and estimated
climate forcings and individual projections of
future climate with the
SResA1B scenarios of
climate forcings. Because
the modeled anomalies
have not been averaged
together here, these time
series provide an idea
of plausible evolutions
of Southwest climate
toward a more arid
state. The models are
the National Center for
Atmospheric Research
Community Climate
System Model (CCSM),
GFDL model CM2.1,
Max Planck Institut Für
Meteorologie model
ECHAM5, and Hadley Centre for Climate Change model HadCM3. All time series are for annual
mean data, and a 6-year low-pass Butterworth filter has been applied.
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VOL 316
iterranean region. For the Southwest region, the
annual mean P − E decreases by 0.086 mm/day,
which is largely accounted for by an increase in
the mean flow moisture divergence. Changes in
the circulation alone contribute 0.095 mm/day of
drying, and changes in the humidity alone
contribute 0.032 mm/day. These changes are
modestly offset by an increased transient-eddy
moisture convergence of 0.019 mm/day. (7).
Within models, the poleward edge of the
Hadley Cell and the mid-latitude westerlies move
poleward during the 21st century (8–10). The
descending branch of the Hadley Cell causes
aridity, and hence the subtropical dry zones expand poleward. In models, a poleward circulation
shift can be forced by rising tropical sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) in the Indo-Pacific region (11)
and by uniform surface warming (12). The latter
results are relevant because the spatial pattern of
surface warming in the AR4 models is quite uniform away from the poles. One explanation (13, 14)
is that rising tropospheric static stability, an established consequence of moist thermodynamics,
stabilizes the subtropical jet streams at the poleward flank of the Hadley Cell against baroclinic
instability. Consequently, the Hadley Cell extends
poleward (increasing the vertical wind shear at its
edge) to a new latitude where the shear successfully compensates for the suppression of baroclinic
instability by rising static stability.
Although increasing stability is likely to be a
substantial component of the final explanation, a
fully satisfying theory for the poleward shift of the
zonal mean atmospheric circulation in a warming
world must account for the complex interplay between the mean circulation (Hadley Cell and the
mid-latitude Ferrell Cell) and the transient eddies
(13, 14) that will determine where precipitation
will increase and decrease in the future. However,
not all of the subtropical drying in the Southwest
and Mediterranean regions can be accounted for by
zonally symmetric processes, and a full explanation will require attention to moisture transport
within localized storm tracks and stationary waves.
The six severe multiyear droughts that have
struck western North America in the instrumental
record have all been attributed (by the use of climate models) to variations in SSTs in the tropics,
particularly persistent La Niña–like SSTs in the
tropical Pacific Ocean (15–19). The projected
future climate of intensified aridity in the Southwest is caused by different processes, because the
models vary in their tropical SST response to anthropogenic forcing. Instead, it is caused by rising
humidity that causes increased moisture divergence and changes in atmospheric circulation cells
that include a poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zones. The drying of subtropical land
areas that, according to the models, is imminent or
already under way is unlike any climate state we
have seen in the instrumental record. It is also distinct from the multidecadal megadroughts that
afflicted the American Southwest during Medieval
times (20–22), which have also been attributed to
changes in tropical SSTs (18, 23). The most severe
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1183
REPORTS
Fig. 4. The change in annual means of P − E for
the 2021–2040 period minus the 1950–2000
period [contours in (A) to (C)] and contributions to
the change in vertically integrated moisture convergence (colors; negative values imply increased
moisture divergence) by the mean flow, due to (A)
changes in the flow, (B) the specific humidity, and
(C) the transient-eddy moisture convergence, all for
the GFDL CM2.1 model. The box in (A) shows the
area we defined as “the Southwest.”
future droughts will still occur during persistent
La Niña events, but they will be worse than any
since the Medieval period, because the La Niña
conditions will be perturbing a base state that is
drier than any state experienced recently.
5 January 2007; accepted 26 March 2007
Published online 5 April 2007;
10.1126/science.1139601
Include this information when citing this paper.
1184
25 MAY 2007
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References and Notes
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Calculations were performed with data collected daily on
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