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Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues, Concerns and Implications for India Main Quest • Tracing the Climate Change- Disasters - Security Nexus • Climate change & disasters linked intrinsically to security through societal vulnerabilities and environmental depletion • Climate change leading to increasing disasters in India –a Concl potential security threat that could severely challenge India’s development and global power aspirations • Integrated Risk Management Framework, Adaptation and Mitigation, Structural to Non Structural Mitigation, Impact Policy Assessment, CCDRI, Modeling, Vulnerability Atlas, Climate Change to “Climate Affairs”, Development as a Tool for Risk Impls Reduction, Centre State Relations, International Cooperation 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 1 Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report 2000-2006 Average- 365 1987-1998 Average- 195 www.em-dat.net 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 3 Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975-2007 www.em-dat.net 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 7 Climate Change- Disasters –Security Nexus Resource scarcity Poverty/inequality Political instability Lack of development Lack of human security Natural Hazard 4/30/2017 Vulnerable Conditions Climate Change Conflict Security Disasters Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 9 Disasters- Indian Scenario India supports 1/6th of world’s population on 2 % of world's landmass • 59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes • 28% of land vulnerable to Drought • 40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable to Floods • 80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones • Different types of manmade Hazards • 1 million houses damaged annually + human, economic, social, other losses 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 11 INDIA ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS Losses in Thousand Crores 50 % 139 % 311 % PERIOD Annual- Impact on People 1. Losses in lives - 4334. 2. People affected - 30 Million. 3. Houses lost - 2.34 Million. Annual- Financial Losses Percentage of Central Revenue (for relief) – 12%. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India Coastal Zone Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2, Population density of 455 pers /Km2, 1.5 times national average of 324 pers/ Km2 Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal 01m Sea Level Rise displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 14 Recommendations Integrated Risk Management Framework Adaptation and Mitigation Structural to Non Structural Mitigation Impact Assessment CCDRI Modeling 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 15 Recommendations Vulnerability Atlas Climate Change to “Climate Affairs” Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction Centre State Relations International Cooperation Climate Change- Need for Single Authority 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 16 Thank You Questions? 4/30/2017 Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI 17