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Transcript
Climate Change, Disasters and Security…Issues,
Concerns and Implications for India
Main
Quest
• Tracing the Climate Change- Disasters - Security Nexus
• Climate change & disasters linked intrinsically to security
through societal vulnerabilities and environmental depletion
• Climate change leading to increasing disasters in India –a
Concl
potential security threat that could severely challenge India’s
development and global power aspirations
• Integrated Risk Management Framework, Adaptation and
Mitigation, Structural to Non Structural Mitigation, Impact
Policy Assessment, CCDRI, Modeling, Vulnerability Atlas, Climate
Change to “Climate Affairs”, Development as a Tool for Risk
Impls
Reduction, Centre State Relations, International
Cooperation
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
1
Climate Disasters- CRED 2007 Report
2000-2006
Average- 365
1987-1998
Average- 195
www.em-dat.net
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
3
Time Line Trend of Natural Disasters 1975-2007
www.em-dat.net
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
7
Climate Change- Disasters –Security Nexus
Resource scarcity
Poverty/inequality
Political instability
Lack of
development
Lack of human
security
Natural
Hazard
4/30/2017
Vulnerable
Conditions
Climate Change
Conflict
Security
Disasters
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
9
Disasters- Indian Scenario

India supports 1/6th of world’s population on
2 % of world's landmass
• 59% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes
• 28% of land vulnerable to Drought
• 40 million hectares (12%) of land vulnerable
to Floods
• 80% of coast vulnerable to Cyclones
• Different types of manmade Hazards
• 1 million houses damaged annually + human,
economic, social, other losses
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
11
INDIA
ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO DISASTERS
Losses in
Thousand
Crores
50 %
139 %
311 %
PERIOD
Annual- Impact on People
1. Losses in lives - 4334.
2. People affected - 30 Million.
3. Houses lost
- 2.34 Million.
Annual- Financial Losses
Percentage of Central Revenue
(for relief) – 12%.
Projected Impacts of Climate Change in India
 Coastal Zone
 Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2,
 Population density of 455 pers /Km2, 1.5 times
national average of 324 pers/ Km2
 Sea level rise highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast
of West Bengal
 01m Sea Level Rise
 displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764
Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
14
Recommendations






Integrated Risk Management Framework
Adaptation and Mitigation
Structural to Non Structural Mitigation
Impact Assessment
CCDRI
Modeling
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
15
Recommendations






Vulnerability Atlas
Climate Change to “Climate Affairs”
Development as a Tool for Risk Reduction
Centre State Relations
International Cooperation
Climate Change- Need for Single Authority
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
16
Thank You
Questions?
4/30/2017
Cdr Sunil Chauhan, Senior Fellow, CS3/USI
17