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Why are global temperatures changing? Topic 5.4 What does the graph on page 36 tell us about the climate over the past 150 thousand years? What does the 2nd graph on page 36 tell us about the climate in the last 250 years? Why are global temperatures increasing? Changes in the atmosphere are linked to climate change Atmosphere: Thin layer of gases extending about 100km upwards. These gases are retained by the earth’s gravity. What are the layers? These layers are necessary. Warm the earth, stop temperature fluctuation between day and night, absorb harmful UV rays How does the atmosphere keep the Earth at a constant liveable temperature? Troposphere (15km) Stratosphere - part is the ozone layer (next 35km) Greenhouse gases in the troposphere Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) Greenhouse house Effect http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/earthguide/d iagrams/greenhouse/ The greenhouse effect itself is essential to human life. An increase in this effect is thought to have negative effects. Greenhouse gases Read page 38 How can we measure their greenhouse effect? Using GWP (global warming potential) This is a measure of the greenhouse effect caused relative to carbon dioxide which is given the value 1. Changes in CO2 and Temperature in the past 160,000 years Does increased carbon dioxide cause global warming? Before the industrial revolution, what caused the temperature to change? Earth’s orbits around the sun changes solar radiation and volcanic eruptions. How does an increase in temperature affect the levels of carbon dioxide? Increases it. Where did the extra carbon dioxide come from? The oceans, there is less water in the oceans and less CO2 dissolved at higher temperature After the industrial revolution CO2 levels rose followed by a rise in temperature What is going to happen to the global temperature? Probably rise – carbon dioxide is at the highest level than in last 400 000 years. What is meant by the term Global Warming? A rise in the average global temperature of the earth’s surface. Scientific consensus has it that it is at least in part caused by increased greenhouse gases like CO2. These gases trap infra-red rays emitted by the earth’s surface. This rise in average global temperature has lead to climate change, melting of the polar ice-caps Climate change - A controversial issue Why might some people disagree that global warming is occurring or that it is caused by human activities? Science can only disprove theories, not prove them Correlation does not equal causation Limitations of the data: we can’t measure exactly how much of each gas comes from each source Computer models overestimated 2000 CO2 levels Evidence can be interpreted in different ways: money and power can influence decisions