Download - Catalyst

Science and global environmental politics
The Case of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
and Lessons for Climate Change
Karen Litfin
Political Science
1
Risk Perception & (Ir)rationality





Representativeness
Availability
Anchoring
Overconfidence
Subjective factors




ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
Autonomy
Fairness
Natural vs. human-induced
Risk cultures
2
Precautionary Principle

Under threat to human health or
environment, precautions should be taken
even without full scientific proof of
causality.


“ounce of prevention is worth pound of cure”
Embryonic principle of international law

ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
How to apply it?
3
Ozone Depletion: Agenda Setting


CFCs: the “miracle compound”
Stratospheric ozone




Why we need it
1974 hypothesis: CFCs destroy ozone
1978: U.S., Canada, Nordic aerosol ban
1977-85: fact-finding

ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
Models predicted 7% ozone loss by 2050
4
Science in the Ozone Negotiations


Vienna Convention (1985)
Antarctic ozone hole (1986)


The wild card!
Montreal Protocol (1987)


ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
U.S.-E.U. compromise
 IC’s cut CFCs in half by 2000
DC’s increase for 10 years
5
The effect of the hole


Not predicted by models
“Chlorine-loading” scheme



Emerged when Cl reached 2 ppb
Stabilizing Cl required 85% reduction
 U.S. position: 95% cutback
Montreal Protocol was not enough

ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
Would have led to 11 ppb by 2000
6
Beyond Montreal

Amendments: 2/3 vote, majority of IC’s & DC’s
1988: New Science

1990s: HCFCs, HFCs

Grand bargain: participation for development aid
London, 1990: CFC phaseout by 2000




Multilateral ozone fund
Stricter amendments every 1-2 years
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
7
Coming Attractions




2010 ~ Total phase-out of CFCs, halons and
carbon tetrachloride in developing countries.
2015 ~ Total phase-out of methyl chloroform and
methyl bromide in developing countries.
2030 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developed
countries.
2040 ~ Total phase-out of HCFCs in developing
countries
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
8
Montreal Protocol Effectiveness

Multilateral ozone fund



$2.5 billion, 1991-2010
Shining example of green diplomacy, but…
… lag time
Ozone hole



ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
1986: 14 million km2
2006: 28 million km2
Chlorine loading near its peak
9
Ozone Hole, 2006
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
10
The Ozone-Climate Connection

CFCs, HCFCs & HFCs are powerful GHGs


Global warming > stratospheric cooling


US at Rio: “Comprehensive Approach”
 CFC phaseout as response to climate change
Ozone unstable at lower temperatures
New possibility: use ozone treaties to address
climate change

ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
HFCs predicted to contribute 25% as much to
global warming by 2030
11
Lessons for climate change?
Science





Save the data!
Important science can come from unexpected quarters.
Scientists increasingly outspoken
IC-led science accepted by DCs
Science-led protocol amendment process
Policy process


Scientific uncertainty in the face of high risk can spur
precautionary action.

A dramatic, visible, persistent crisis matters.

How many Katrinas do we need?
U.S. leadership can be critical.
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
12
… lessons for climate change?
Policy structure (cont.)




When states lead, NGOs are not so prominent
When they don’t, nonstate actors more prominent
Small, concentrated industry vs. the glue of the global
economy
Availability of profitable substitutes
Norms and ethics


Universal participation and “common but differentiated
responsibility”
 Multilateral ozone fund as precedent
Ozone and climate as teachers of planetary
interdependence
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
13
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
14
How can we protect the thin blue line that
protects us all?
ENVIR 100 Guest lecture
15