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ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
IN EASTERN ONTARIO
APRIL 15, 2013
IPCC DEFINITION
Climate change in Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
usage refers to a change in the state
of the climate that can be identified
(e.g. using statistical tests) by
changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties, and that
persists for an extended period,
typically decades or longer. It refers
to any change in climate over time,
whether due to natural variability or
as a result of human activity.
UNFCCC DEFINITION
This usage differs from that in the
United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC), where
climate change refers to a change of
climate that is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters
the composition of the global
atmosphere and that is in addition to
natural climate variability observed
over comparable time periods.
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
(IPCC 2007)
PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE IN EASTERN ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE CENTURY - TEMPERATURE
Annual Mean Temperatures in Eastern
Ontario are projected to increase
3-4 degrees Celsius by 2100
PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE IN EASTERN ONTARIO BY
THE END OF THE CENTURY - PRECIPITATION
Precipitation
amounts and
patterns will
change




0-10% less
annual
precipitation
More
precipitation
falling as rain,
less snowfall
Higher risk of
“events”
Difference in

Precipitation
by 2100 (%)
60 to 70
50 to 60
40 to 50
30 to 40
20 to 30
10 to 20
0 to 10
0 to -10
-10 to -20
-20 to -30
-30 to -40
Source: MNR
KEY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE
1.
Gradual increase in average annual temperatures
o
o
2.
3.
4.
Greater changes seen in seasonal and monthly averages
Minimum temperatures increasing
Changes in average precipitation amounts and
patterns
Increase in frequency and severely of
‘extreme events’
Increased weather variability
CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION
Adaptation: Managing what we
cannot avoid
Mitigation: Avoiding what we
cannot manage
Takes place through
adjustments to reduce
vulnerability or to enhance
resilience in response to
observed or expected changes
in climate and associated
extreme weather events.
Reduction in greenhouse gas
emissions through;
o use of energy efficient
vehicles and buildings
o well-planned communities
o public transit systems
o reduction in industrial
emissions
ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION SHOULD GO HAND-INHAND, BOTH ARE EQUALLY IMPORTANT!
BEING PROACTIVE IN ADAPTING TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
Developing a proactive,
planned response to
climate change impacts,
which includes
developing the capacity
to respond to unexpected
impacts and extremes,
makes good sense for the
community.
Source: MNR
WHO SHOULD ADAPT?
Adaptation is needed at all levels
Government agencies (federal, provincial, municipal, etc.)
 Conservation Authorities (watershed scale)
 Your community – industry, business, local
organizations such as lake associations

o
o

On-shore (riparian and terrestrial systems)
In waterways
You
o
Take measures on your property and in your community
LOCAL CHAMPIONS
Local champions are usually a small group of
individuals from government, industry, and the
public who understand the importance of a
cooperative approach to working towards
adaptation

It is important in every community to have local
“champions” who;
o
o
understand the importance of taking adaptive measures, and
are willing to work with the community to bring about necessary
changes
LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN

Largest inland lake in Ontario
o
o
o
Population of 350,000 in watershed
47% of land area is agricultural
65 rare species
Watershed plan
 Difference from most watershed plans is level
of protection through legislation – Lake Simcoe
Protection Act (2008)

LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN (CONT’D)
4 guiding principles
 Short and long term priorities identified
 Includes targets, indicators, and policies
 4 policy categories

o
o
o
o

‘Designated’ policies
‘Have regard to’ policies
‘Monitoring’ policies
Strategic actions (no legal effect)
Builds on other provincial policies, plans, and acts
(e.g. PPS, Clean Water Act)
LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN (CONT’D)

Plan organized by priorities
o
o
o
o

Aquatic life
Water quality
Shorelines and natural heritage
Impacts – invasive species, climate change,
recreational activities
The Lake Simcoe Environmental Management
Strategy (LSEMS) ‘informs’ the Lake Simcoe
Protection Plan
LAKE SIMCOE PROTECTION PLAN
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Objective to “Protect natural resilience of the entire
Lake Simcoe ecosystem”
 List of potential impacts of climate change on
other areas of the plan
 Identification of need for development of
adaptation strategy
Risk assessment
 Further research of impacts on specific sectors
 Integrated monitoring program
 Development of sector specific, integrated adaptation
plans

DRAFT LAKE SIMCOE ADAPTATION STRATEGY
Will include suggestions for
Adaptive Actions
Source: MNR
LEARNING FROM ‘BEST PRACTICES’

Look at studies and work done in other areas
and identify similarities with local situation
o

More efficient than duplicating effort
Identify;
o
o
o
applicable recommendations and actions
differences, modifications need to adjust to local
impacts
Local data and information gaps
WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE LAKE SIMCOE
PROTECTION PLAN?

4 guiding principles
1.
Ecosystem approach
o
2.
Subwatershed approach
o
3.
Policies and management actions are scaled appropriately, either
specific to a subwatershed, across a number of subwatersheds, or
across a watershed
Precautionary approach
o
4.
Consider interactions and effects of all elements within the system
“Caution will be exercised to protect the environment when there is
uncertainty about environmental risks”
Adaptive management approach
o
Continuously monitor outcomes of all actions and modify
approaches where needed in a timely fashion
WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE LAKE SIMCOE
PROTECTION PLAN? (CONT’D)
1.
Set priorities, first by developing strategic plans to protect
2.
3.
Include consideration of climate change impacts
in policies and management plans.
Identify changing risks and vulnerabilities to
4.
Develop and implement monitoring programs to
5.
Identify collaborative opportunities.
resilience of natural systems and functions (green
infrastructure).
‘traditional’ land use practices and ‘gray’ infrastructure.
identify and address local knowledge gaps and measure
progress.
LOCAL WORK-TO-DATE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION - EXAMPLES
1.
Fish, Fisheries, and Water Resources: Adapting to
Ontario’s Changing Climate - MVC
•
•
•
integrated watershed hydrologic and hydraulic modelling of
the Mississippi River watershed
the changing composition of the local fish community
public workshops held over two days
2.
Agency information workshops for Mississippi
watershed and area in 2007/2008, 2012 – MVC
3.
Organizational review of climate change impacts –
RVCA
MISSISSIPPI-RIDEAU CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION VULNERABILITY STUDIES
MISSISSIPPI-RIDEAU CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION VULNERABILITY STUDIES

Focus within the Mississippi-Rideau Source Protection
Region boundaries
•
Mississippi Valley and Rideau Valley watersheds

Collection of sector specific studies (themes) of changing
vulnerabilities in the region – green infrastructure

Geographical scale of each study will be unique

Building on completed studies, available data, and
knowledge gap identification
PRACTIONER’S GUIDE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN
ONTARIO’S ECOSYSTEMS



Released in by MNR in 2011
Developed to provide
guidance to MNR staff and
other resource practitioners
on how to mainstream
climate change adaptation
into daily business
Will be used as a guide in
upcoming local vulnerability
studies
ESTIMATING FUTURE VULNERABILITIES
AND RISKS

Risk assessment is used in many fields to think about future issues.
 A complimentary approach called ‘vulnerability assessment’ may provide valuable
insights, particularly from an ecosystem perspective.

“Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or
unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and
extremes.”
IPCC, 2007. Fourth Assessment Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Exposure
Sensitivity
Potential
impact
Adaptive
capacity
Vulnerability
Source: MNR
PROPOSED THEMES WITHIN MR REGION FOR
VULNERABILITY STUDIES

Water management (quantity) in the Mississippi River
•
•
•

Water quality in the region
•
•




Surface water levels
Surface water intakes
Waterpower
Nutrient loading
Algal blooms
Provincially significant wetlands
Species at Risk remediation
Terrestrial ecosystem management
Agricultural water needs
NEXT STEPS IN LOCAL ADAPTATION WORK
1.
Identify climate change impacts locally and
potential adaptation options
o
o
2.
Changes in risk and vulnerability
Use this (and other) information to help prioritize adaptation
plans and actions
Develop collaborative partnerships
o
Eastern Ontario climate change adaptation working group
o
o
–multi-sector
Potential for smaller local groups to identify local scale
impacts and carry out adaptation projects
“Climate change is likely to
become one of the most
significant drivers of
biodiversity loss by the
end of the century”
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005
FINAL THOUGHTS ON SUSTAINABILITY AND
CLIMATE CHANGE

During preliminary climate change adaptation
study done in 2007-2008 MVC staff came to
realization that a healthy, functioning ecosystem is
more resilient to changes and variations in climate
o

This is reflected in much of the literature from around the
world on adaptation strategies
Healthy ecosystems support diversity and vs. versa
o
Natural corridors and linkages important as climate
changes
PROTECTING AND ENHANCING OUR ‘GREEN
INFRASTRUCTURE’
Economic benefits to protecting natural
functions and systems are becoming more
apparent over time
 Worth considering how to do things in a more
sustainable fashion

o
o
o
Water conservation
Protection of water quality
Wise land use choices
SUSTAINABILITY MAKES GOOD SENSE

Many people cite ‘quality of life’ as important
which includes access to clean water and air,
natural systems such as forests
o
Should include retention/protection of quality of life
factors in land use design
Sustainable options can be considered ‘no regret’
actions as beginning steps in adaptation
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STARTS WITH WISE,
SUSTAINABLE USE AND PROTECTION OF THE SAME NATURAL
VALUES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO OUR COMMUNITIES
THANKS!